Nvidia, Target, Fed Minutes Ahead After 4-Day Drop

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here's Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, November 19th. Today is the keystone of the week, and perhaps the month, as AI giant NVIDIA unveils quarterly earnings after the close. Though tomorrow's September employment report also looms large, along with Walmart earnings that day, NVIDIA steps to the platform at an auspicious moment considering the recent rush from risk in AI and chip stocks. Before NVIDIA reports, investors can look over minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting due at 2 p.m.

0:52Eastern time. That gathering resulted in a rate cut, but not before a debate that led to two descends from policymakers. The minutes might outline who was debating whom and how they framed their arguments, with some worried more about inflation and others about a weaker labor market. That debate means next month's meeting might feature a close vote. Odds of a cut have crept up from last week's lows to 51 % by late Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. For now, though, the main event is NVIDIA, and investors have scrutinized its recent earnings reports with a fine-toothed comb for any signs of a breakdown after three years of meteoric gains.

1:33At a recent conference, the company said it has$500 billion in orders on the books for its Blackwell and Rubin graphics processing units through 2026. If those numbers start showing up in forward revenue guidance, it could make analysts' revenue outlooks for next year look light. The chipmaker will likely have to provide evidence that it can continue to grow revenues at an impressive clip and deliver high margins not just now but for years to come, particularly with investors' AI enthusiasm beginning to wane. Last week, SoftBank sold its entire$5.83 billion position in NVIDIA, and this week, a regulatory filing showed hedge fund investor Peter Thiel had exited his NVIDIA position.

2:21Rockiness in the chip sector accompanied these high-profile moves, leading to more losses across the tech world on Monday and Tuesday. Though NVIDIA is a nearly$5 trillion giant, it probably can't single-handedly lift tech out of recent doldrums. Also, NVIDIA's recent quarterly releases disappointed investors as the company removed China revenue from its guidance during the trade war and saw margins decline. Investors have come to expect a beat or a raise every time NVIDIA has an earnings release, so assuming NVIDIA delivers again, expectations will be matched against the degree of beat, with emphasis on forward guidance, said Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

3:09Analysts expect earnings per share of$1.25 on revenue of$54.9 billion for NVIDIA. That would mean 56.5 % year-over-year revenue growth.

3:22Looking beyond NVIDIA, September's non-farm payrolls report, due at 8.30 a.m. ET tomorrow, is expected to show jobs growth of around 50 ,000, up from 22 ,000 in August. The October and November data releases aren't scheduled yet and may not be complete, as data aggregation was interrupted by the shutdown. On another sour jobs-related note, notices of impending layoffs climbed to 39 ,000 in October, the Cleveland Fed said. The only previous times they were higher was last May and in 2008, 2009, and 2020. Initial weekly jobless claims rose to 232 ,000 the week of October 18, the most recent data available.

4:10Treasuries, which fell last week, gained early this week, but yields remained in a tight range. It would likely take a drop back below 4 % for the 10-year note yield to convince investors that a flight to safety is truly underway, especially since neither gold nor the dollar have shown unusual strength this week. All these measures could be on pause for the near term and tell investors see more data. Volatility boiled again Tuesday, taking the SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, up 6 % to one-month highs above 23, and raising prospects of more choppiness ahead. The credit concerns and risk-off AI and cryptocurrency trading seen this week could be behind this spike in hedging activity.

4:55However, the VIX is now in backwardation, meaning futures prices are below the spot price. The biggest names in the stock market are all down this month along with major indexes, with Alphabet the only Magnificent Seven name up for November. This month is on track to be the first one in the red since April. Retail earnings started on the wrong foot. Home Depot fell 6 % Tuesday after the firm's latest quarterly results came up short on earnings per share, though revenues met expectations. The company also guided for fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings below consensus. It's the third straight quarterly mess.

5:39Poor consumer sentiment and tariffs, along with stubbornly high mortgages, have hurt home improvement firms, and the recent quarter also saw lower-than-usual storm activity limiting demand. Lowe's and Target both report early today, with Target seeking a second straight earnings beat. The consensus on Wall Street is for Target earnings per share of$1.72 on revenue of$25.3 billion, down 1.3 % from a year ago. With Lowe's, investors will likely watch the professional side of the business as it's been trying to attract more home professionals to drive higher sales. On Wall Street yesterday, major indexes finished lower for the fourth straight day after a midday attempt to pair losses failed.

6:25The S &P 500 index is now in its longest slide since August and 4 % below its all-time high close posted in late October. It hasn't had a 5 % decline since April, but several of those tend to happen each year. Bitcoin, which hit a multi-month low early Tuesday below$90 ,000, turned around losses to post slight gains, but remains sharply lower in November. Sector-wise, healthcare and energy led the way Tuesday and were among several S &P sectors in the green, but weakness in the highly valued Magnificent Seven Names capsized Infotech and consumer discretionary, causing the major indexes to finish much lower.

7:12In a positive sign, however, the Russell 2000 index of small caps ended higher Tuesday. Losses in the Russell of more than 6 % since late October are worse than the broader markets line. From a chart perspective, the S &P 500 index finished beneath its 50-day moving average near 6 ,710 on Tuesday for the second straight day. The October S &P 500 index low of 6 ,552 might be a level to watch on further pullbacks. That level isn't far from the 100-day moving average of 6 ,536. Yesterday's failure to build on the midday comeback attempt could mean technical weakness early today. Checking individual stocks, Microsoft and NVIDIA each lost about 2.6 % Tuesday after the two committed to invest up to a combined$15 billion in Anthropic, B.C.

8:08This move, Bloomberg reported, ties the AI developer, Anthropic, closer to two of the biggest backers of its rival OpenAI. Anthropic is also committed to purchase$30 billion of computing capacity from Microsoft's Azure cloud service. Medtronic jumped nearly 5 % after the firm surpassed Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations, thanks in part to strong growth in cardiovascular products. It also raised its outlook. Strategy, which earlier this week said it bought$835.6 million in Bitcoin over the previous seven days, rose 7 % Tuesday as Bitcoin turned around early losses. Honeywell dropped 2.3 % after getting downgraded by Bank of America to underperform from buy.

8:59The analyst called the catalyst path quote-unquote challenging. And Amazon plunged 4 % after separate downgrades for it and Microsoft from Rothschild and company. It's time to take a more cautious stance on the hyperscalers, the firm wrote, adding that the underlying economics are far weaker than assumed. However, investment banking firm Stifle raised its price target on NVIDIA and increased its estimates ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 498.50 points Tuesday, or 1.07%, to 46 ,091.74. The S &P 500 Index gave up 55.09 points, or 0.83%, to 6 ,617.32. And the NASDAQ composite dropped to 275.23 points or 1.21 % to 22 ,432.85.

10:03This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

10:32For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.