Oil in Focus as Iran Addresses UN, Following Trump

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, September 23rd. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite scored another record close Tuesday, the rest of the markets stalled as investors approached today's session still monitoring high-level geopolitical developments that might move oil prices. One highlight is tomorrow when President Trump is scheduled to meet China's President Xi Jinping at a bilateral summit in Washington, D.C. The Trump-Xi meeting will focus on trade, AI safety, and Iranian crude, said Michelle Ghibli, director of international equity research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

0:57One positive outcome could be reciprocal tariff relief for U.S. agricultural products and Chinese low-tech consumer goods. China has resumed oil imports after cutting back earlier in the Iran war, Ghibli added. In a longer run, this could mean tighter supplies if Chinese buying coincides with continued Middle East supply tangles. Oil prices declined Tuesday after Reuters reported that Iran said it might be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifted its blockade of Iran. U.S. representatives discussed matters with Iran at the U.N. Tuesday, even as Trump leveled new threats towards Iran in his U.N.

1:38speech Tuesday. Iran's president speaks at the UN today, another geopolitical event investors will likely concentrate on.

1:49Geopolitics might take a backseat next week as jobs data arrive starting Tuesday with the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. Next Friday features the September non-farm payrolls report. Labor data looms amid signs of tightening in the jobs market, meaning fewer workers available to fill positions. If this persists, it could lead to faster wage growth, kindling inflation concerns. Those concerns didn't vanish, despite the drop in crude oil and Treasury yields. Earlier this week, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austin Goolsbee said that current elevated inflation reflects factors beyond energy prices, meaning the Fed may have to hike rates if it persists.

2:34Today features Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking on the economic outlook and housing at 10.05 a.m. Eastern Time. Yesterday's$69 billion two-year Treasury note auction drew the highest yield in more than two years at 4.787 percent, but also saw solid demand. Treasury yields inched up afterward. The action continues with five - and seven-year auctions today and tomorrow, respectively. Strong demand could potentially ease some of the pressure on yields, while weak demand could have the opposite effect. Treasuries were choppy yesterday amid Trump's messaging on Iran. While auctions are separate from the Treasury futures market, it appears the recent jump to 5 % for the 10-year yield had a positive impact on buying interest.

3:25Buyers appear to be stepping in around 5%, which coincides with the prior high in 2023, said Nathan Peterson, Director of Durative Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. By late Tuesday, odds of another rate hike at the Fed's October meeting reached 55%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds of a hike before year-end were close to 90%. Earnings remain thin, but AutoZone drew attention early Tuesday when its quarterly revenue missed expectations. The company cited a difficult selling environment early in the quarter, but sounded optimistic about its growth strategies.

4:04KB Home reported late Tuesday, and earnings per share beat consensus. Revenue was in line, and shares were flat in initial post-market trading. Shares of homebuilders struggled recently amid housing market weakness, though they ticked up this week as yields fell. Earnings today include Cintas, General Mills, and Cracker Barrel. Costco rolls out results late Thursday. Next week features some more prominent firms, including Micron and Nike. There's a smattering of data today, mainly the September S &P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI soon after the open. Any headline above 50 marks expansion, and 53.9 was last month's figure.

4:49Consensus for today is 53.6. Separately, the Fed's Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped unexpectedly in September into negative territory for the first time in six months. Tomorrow's main numbers are initial jobless claims before the open and new home sales soon after. On Tuesday, major indexes finished mixed, with the Nasdaq jumping again but the S &P 500 index flat. Action remained somewhat narrow as more stocks made new lows than highs by midday. Avancers outpaced decliners, but just five of 11 S &P 500 sectors finished higher. Materials led the way, with mining shares lifted by rising copper prices.

5:35Copper hit a new record high above$6.92 a pound Tuesday on tight supplies Weaker crude also helped copper amid hopes that falling oil prices might prevent an economic slowdown Infotech remained solid Tuesday, but so did staples and health care, often seen as defensive areas Technically, the S &P 500 index bounced off several recent tests of support near the 50-day moving average of just above 7 ,600. However, none of these bounces have been particularly robust, and caution might accumulate if the index falls below support again. Volatility eased amid hopes for diplomatic progress. At 14.2 as of late Tuesday, the SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, is tracking just above this month's long-term lows.

6:27A weak VIX suggests investor uncertainty is less prevalent. Checking today's individual market movers, Shopify jumped 7 % after announcing the company will partner with Meta to use Meta's Muse AI agent for checkout with ShopPay at all Shopify stores. Memory chip stocks led the tech sector after President Trump reiterated support for AI in his UN speech. Software went the opposite way for the most part. Some energy refiner stocks found after President Trump said he's considering a temporary ban on diesel exports. This comes as Republicans in close election fights called for the administration to ease energy prices.

7:15Financial stocks suffered Tuesday and have struggled the past week thanks in part to a yield curve that's flattened after the Fed's rate hike. Long-term yields are down and shorter-term yields are up, a trend that tends to hurt profitability for banks. As earnings season approaches, there's also concern about the trading and investment banking businesses, Briefing.com noted. On Holding jumped 7.6 % after the Swiss footwear company said it expects revenue growth to reach the high teens, targeting sales of around$7 billion by 2029, Barron's reported. Dick's Sporting Goods rose 8 % on the coattails of On Holding's forecast, which looked positive for athletic footwear.

8:01LabCorp holdings fell 3 % after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced that Medicare has been paying more than private payers for diagnostic services and will adjust to align with private sector rates, CNBC reported. Quest Diagnostics fell 4 % on the news. Vicor popped almost 20 % after the power electronics firm raised third-quarter revenue guidance. Allstate fell 5.5 % on worries that AI could pull demand from traditional insurers. And Marathon Petroleum slipped 3%, hurt by falling oil prices and a downgrade by Jeffries to hold from buy.

8:45The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 185.14 points, or 0.36%, Tuesday, to 51 ,863.69. The S &P 500 index fell 0.6 points, or nearly flat, at 7 ,764.64, and the Nasdaq Composite added 122.18 points, or 0.45%, to 27 ,244 .28. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

9:43For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.