Trade in Focus but Earnings Could Take Spotlight

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, February 24th. Despite persistent trade confusion weighing on stocks, the economic calendar rolls on, with a series of benchmark earnings the next two days. Volatility spiked and stocks retreated Monday, accompanied by falling treasury yields and a slightly weaker dollar. Recent wounds inflicted on markets from AI substitution and Sell America sentiment received fresh salt from President Trump's new 15 % global tariffs, hurting sectors exposed to trade, including tech and discretionary. Financial stocks cratered Monday, also bringing pressure amid worries many financial institutions could be exposed to debt from the slumping software industry.

1:04The SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, climbed double digits to above 21, eclipsing the traditional dividing line of 20 between high and low uncertainty levels. Futures trading suggests no easing in volatility over coming months, which could mean chop your Wall Street trading for some time. That stands to reason considering the fluid nature of trade policy. The European Union threatened to push back signing previously negotiated trade agreements with the U.S. now that the U.S. unilaterally imposed new tariffs.

1:41NVIDIA's quarterly earnings tomorrow afternoon could help set the tone for the struggling technology sector and return focus more squarely to corporate health. Though NVIDIA dominates the scenery, other earnings reports, including this morning's from Home Depot and tomorrow's from Lowe's, also are under scrutiny. Both Home Depot and Lowe's could offer insight into the slumping U.S. housing market, and investors likely will focus on comparable sales or annual sales growth at stores open at least a year or more for any signs of improved momentum. Margins also could be viewed as important, considering analysts see the likelihood of falling sales at Home Depot, which puts the company under cost-cutting pressure.

2:25Home Depot is up more than 10 percent so far this year. Last time out, it missed analysts' earnings per share estimates for the third straight quarter and cut its full-year outlook, CNBC reported. Home Depot at the time blamed a weak housing market. Recent housing data hasn't improved much, but Home Depot leaders said in November they expect home improvement activity to increase. Geopolitics haven't gone away either. Talks between Iran and the U.S. are expected to resume later this week amid mutual threats, keeping crude oil prices at six-month highs. The U.S. military gathering around Iran is its largest since the 2003 Iraq invasion.

3:09Concerns about private credit also linger. Shares of asset management firms grew shaky again Monday, though there haven't been any high-profile business failures. Credit markets are getting nervous, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. The good news for credit is that the economy continues to chug along, which bodes well for revenues. However, there are concerns over private credit. That said, credit spreads, a key indicator of credit market health, remain tight, a positive sign. Data accelerates later this week. Notably, Friday brings the January Producer Price Index, or PPI.

3:51The December report was hotter than analysts had expected and appeared to spill over into last week's warm December Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, price data. In data Monday, December factory orders fell 0.7 % month-over-month, following a 2.7 % increase in November. However, excluding transportation orders rose 0.4%, accelerating from 0.1 % the prior month. Consumer confidence for February is due at 10 a.m. Eastern Time today, and briefing.com consensus is for historic weakness to continue, with a headline of 86.0 up just slightly from 84.5 in January. Consumer sentiment for February issued Friday also remained poor.

4:40The day ahead is packed with Fed speakers, including five this morning and two this afternoon. Recent Fed speakers have shown little enthusiasm for possible rate cuts, and odds of a cut at next month's meeting stood at a meager 4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds are around 55 % for at least one cut by June. Today features a two-year Treasury note auction, and tomorrow brings a five-year auction, both of which might get close attention considering weak demand at some recent auctions. If demand stays muted, it could push yields higher. Auction results typically get reported by early afternoon.

5:21The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield fell sharply Monday to 4.03%, the lowest close since November 28th. While lower yields ease borrowing costs and can sometimes be a tailwind for stocks, Monday's drop appeared associated with the debt, AI, and trade worries that pushed down stocks, so probably shouldn't be seen in a positive way. Also, while long-term yields are under pressure at the moment, the fresh tariffs ultimately could keep yields up if they prevent import prices from falling. Friday's Supreme Court ruling has created a new level of uncertainty for the fixed income markets, said Schwab's Howard.

6:00To us, it suggests that yields will likely remain elevated going forward. Turning back to NVIDIA, margins might come under scrutiny. Though AI spending shows little sign of easing, NVIDIA and fellow chip firms face higher bandwidth memory costs amid sector shortages. Last year, investors nicked shares of NVIDIA after earnings when they saw margin guidance fall below expectations. Data center revenue, as usual, will be front and center, as will guidance. NVIDIA remains under pressure every time it reports to provide impressive guidance, along with beating consensus expectations for the quarter.

6:41In Wall Street parlance, it's called a beat and raise, and any sign of flowing on either side of the ledger could hurt tech. Salesforce's earnings could also draw attention Wednesday after the bell. The software giant's report arrives during dark times for the software sector amid AI competition concerns. Guidance could help set the tone for software stocks, and any weakness in the outlook might exacerbate bearish sentiment for the sector. Software shares continued slipping Monday, including a 9 % drop for AppLovin and almost 10 % for CrowdStrike. AI worries got exacerbated Monday by a report from Citrini Research, an independent publisher, that said AI could cause major blows for white-collar workers and firms in the financial and consumer spaces, Barron's noted.

7:35Fourth quarter earnings season approaches the finish line, with 425 S &P 500 companies reporting so far. Of those, a relatively low 66 percent beat analysts' earnings expectations, while earnings per share growth is a healthy 12.36 according to Bloomberg data. On Monday, major market indexes spent all day in the red, but the S &P 500 index remained above recent lows. Still, the index flirted again with its 100-day average at 6 ,823, a trend line that's held on several recent tests. The index finished 14 points above that Monday, but it remains a key area to watch today. The bearish technical view might highlight the high frequency of support tests at this moving average, which could lend to an eventual break to the downside, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

8:34In other words, it's technically more bullish to see a V bounce off key support levels rather than multiple tests in a short period of time. Six of 11 S &P 500 sectors finished up Monday, led by defensive areas like staples, health care, and utilities. Energy also performed well as Iran concerns kept crude oil near recent highs. In individual trading Monday, Novo Nordisk plunged more than 16 % after its obesity drug, Cagracima, couldn't match results shown by Eli Lilly's rival treatment in a trial. Lilly shares rose 4%. DoorDash fell more than 6 % after the delivery firm froze service for parts of the U.S.

9:20East Coast during the blizzard. Financial and software sector shares suffered more pain as a brutal February continued. Concerns about AI substitution hurting both industries kept shares under pressure ahead of earnings later this week from Salesforce and Snowflake. In financials, credit card issuers fell amid concerns that a flagging stock market might slow spending among higher-income consumers. American Express slid more than 7 percent, and big banks also retreated. The same consumer spending concerns hurt airlines, cruise ship, apparel, automotive, and casino stocks Monday. Tesla fell 3 percent.

10:03Bitcoin dropped more than 4 % Monday amid risk-off sentiment that also hurt shares of crypto-related stocks. In tech trading, IBM plunged 13 % to become the latest company battered by worries about AI competition for key products. In this case, it was Anthropic announcing capabilities for use of programming language used to process data, CNBC reported. This could include payment processing and retail transaction systems. domino's pizza warmed up three and a half percent despite the company missing analysts earnings per share estimates instead investors appeared to focus on a stronger than expected gain in revenue for domino's shares of which hit two-year lows recently amid general weakness in the restaurant sector quarterly net revenue grew 6.4 percent annually and sales at u.s outlets open at least a year rose 3.7 percent.

10:58And shares of biotech firm Arcelex catapulted 77 percent following news that Gilead Sciences will buy the cancer drug company for 7.8 billion dollars. Gilead shares fell 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cratered 821.91 points Monday, or 1.66%, to 48 ,804.06. The S &P 500 Index dropped 71.76 points, or 1.04%, to 6 ,837.75. and the Nasdaq Composite declined 258.79 points, or 1.13%, to 22 ,627.27. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash marketupdate or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review.

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