In short
How AI access and control by big tech will shape the next 2–3 years; risks of information control, job disruption, and “one-ecosystem” lock-in; and why decentralization (e.g., decentralized AI networks) could keep AI open/affordable.
Guests
David and Daniel Liberman Brothers—investors and founders who sold their company to Snap; they’re building Gonca, a decentralized AI network.
Key claims
AI will disrupt every job, but timelines vary; major life-changing “COVID-like” events and breakthroughs are likely within two years (including biotech, new materials, and rewrites of operating systems/coding languages). Big firms may control access, raising prices and limiting who benefits; consumers’ power may matter now but dependence will grow. Worst case: industry-by-industry absorption into centralized AI ecosystems.
Notable examples
Using ChatGPT via camera to diagnose a missing pipe part and fix a hot-water issue after years; AI call centers replacing human collectors; AI-driven research reducing multi-source verification.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOFuture of AI Access
0:00 to 0:11
The future of AI depends on access control by tech companies.
“What kind of reality we will see in the future mostly depend on whether big tech companies will have control on who has access to artificial intelligence.”
The Disruption of Jobs by AI
0:55 to 1:48
AI is poised to disrupt every job within a few years.
“They're not only friends who I've known since 2015, they're also my first investors who believed in me.”
Public Trust in AI Technology
1:48 to 2:55
Public trust in single sources of information is a pivotal change due to AI.
“I would start with like contradicting to what you said.”
AI's Role in Everyday Problems
2:55 to 4:30
AI can significantly enhance problem-solving in practical scenarios.
“if it will become actually commodity when it's like cheap, as cheap as possible, then each of us for sure will use AI to increase our productivity.”
The Future of Jobs in an AI World
4:30 to 6:24
Certain professions will need to adapt to the upcoming AI-driven changes.
“If all the drivers will see the future, the future will be self-driving.”
Impending Breakthroughs in AI
6:24 to 7:48
Several groundbreaking AI advancements are expected in the near future.
“The physical world is not moving as software.”
Control of AI by Big Tech
7:48 to 10:06
Big tech's control over AI access raises concerns about future accessibility.
“It will be already hard to influence where this progress will lead us.”
Market Dynamics of AI Products
10:06 to 11:39
The competitive landscape of AI products can shift user experiences and costs.
“You can see how most of the US-based companies, they used to have open models.”
Scenarios for AI's Future Impact
11:39 to 14:00
Two potential futures illustrate the impact of AI on productivity and society.
“We still have competition on the market.”
The Future of Productivity with AI
14:00 to 16:44
Exploring how AI models will impact productivity and the economy.
“If your productivity, my productivity depends on whether we have access to those models or not, they can set any price.”
Show all 20 chapters
Freedom and AI's Impact on Society
16:44 to 18:28
Discussing AI's potential to restrict freedom and influence decision-making.
“It's not because of AI in general, it's a part of human nature, how storytelling affects us.”
Regulation and Consumer Power in AI
18:28 to 22:34
Examining the role of government regulation and consumer influence in AI.
“how they can demand, what should be right.”
Decentralization and AI's Future
22:34 to 24:54
Investigating the potential of decentralized AI systems and their benefits.
“The trick is AI itself, as soon as it's achieving, will achieve soon, like in a year from now, likely a certain level of precision and false tolerance and mistake tolerance.”
AI's Role in Empathy and Efficiency
24:54 to 28:07
How AI can enhance empathy in services and replace traditional call centers.
“And that's where we can see that there will be tension.”
The Implications of AI Verification
28:07 to 29:26
Learn about the importance of verified AI participation and the challenges of misinformation.
“It doesn't really matter why, but the internet is getting trashed with a lot of unchecked information.”
AI as a Tool for Equality and Business Growth
29:27 to 31:28
Discover how equal access to AI technology can empower small businesses and individuals.
“And I hope that people will be more educated about the abundance which AI can bring, at the same time, what other risks and how we can mitigate them.”
Practical Steps to Adapt to AI
31:29 to 35:26
Understand the actions individuals should take now to thrive in an AI-driven future.
“like whatever it is, products for dogs, for kids, like through this new channel, more small businesses happen to be successful.”
The Future of Work in an AI World
35:27 to 36:35
Explore the potential changes in job markets and the evolving nature of work due to AI.
“Okay, I could talk about this for another hour.”
The Role of New Players in AI Development
36:36 to 37:59
Get insights on how new companies might emerge as leaders in the evolving AI landscape.
“five years from now, or will we have some emergent player?”
Long-term Control in an AI World
38:00 to 39:07
Learn about personal development strategies to maintain control over your life amidst rapid change.
“I think that there is no much way to limit AI development.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Daniil Liberman:What kind of reality we will see in the future mostly depend on whether big tech companies will have control on who has access to artificial intelligence.
0:11David Liberman:These are David and Daniel Liberman, investors and founders who sold their company to Snap. Now they're building Gonca, a decentralized AI network designed to make AI more open and affordable so anyone can win with it.
0:23Daniil Liberman:Do you know what is the share of Dariya Madea, founder of Antropic, creator of Claude, in his own company? What is it? 1.5%.
0:31David Liberman:Oh, really? People who build it, people who brought their values into this, they are not in control anymore. What should people be doing now to thrive in two or three years? Everything will be disrupted. Every single job will be disrupted. How much time do we have? Hello, everyone. Welcome to Silicon Valley Girl. I have my amazing friends today, Liverman Brothers. They're not only friends who I've known since 2015, they're also my first investors who believed in me. And the whole round that happened in 2021, which became the first ever venture round in a creator, happened because of you guys. Thank you so much.
1:13David Liberman:Because of you. Thank you for believing in me. And yeah, it's fascinating to see how much happened after that. You've been in technology circles and building stuff for a while. So I really want to focus on what's going on right now and what's happening with AI. And AI has been the most discussed technological revolution in the past two years. But what I'm noticing, and I'm sure a lot of people who are watching this will agree, that we're talking a lot about AI. And obviously, it's changing for coders because a lot of people generate 80 % of their code, maybe more. But when you take an ordinary person, yes, the search is better now, the productivity is maybe up, but there hasn't been a life-changing event for humanity yet.
1:58David Liberman:So do you think AI is overhyped? I would start with like contradicting to what you said. Life changed because people started trusting one source of information like in a chat. Like, what is this? What is that? And they don't check multiple sources as they used with the internet. And this is something pivotal, honestly, already. Therefore, we will have some consequences about that already from this point. When was the last time you were actually doing your research in Google? Not through the ChatGPT or other platform with agents doing all the swarming research for you and stuff. This changed. We somehow started trusting this technology, which not always is correct.
2:42Daniil Liberman:Yeah. What kind of reality we will see in the future? mostly depend on whether someone will be able to get access to artificial intelligence. If artificial intelligence will be freely accessible by every human on Earth, if it will become actually commodity when it's like cheap, as cheap as possible, then each of us for sure will use AI to increase our productivity. but definitely in other scenarios possible if big tech firms will be able to get the access and decide who can have the access or not.
3:22David Liberman:I'll give you an example. Someone recently asked us about like, what about the plumbers? Will they be actually replaced with the robots or like with AI? What's going to happen there? How can AI actually make innovation in there? In our house where we moved three years ago, for this past three years, we had the problem with hot water and we were complaining to the landlord. He called for the plumber several times. He came there and was like, oh, you need to replace the entire heating system. It's going to be very expensive. And then at some point, we basically pointed the chat GPT through the camera into the piping system.
3:58David Liberman:It's like, what's wrong here? And the chat said, looks like it's missing one small part here, like a pipe which will actually close the loop here and blah, blah, blah, blah. so we started discussing with this problem with the plumbers after three years we now have instant hot water with just one but you still needed physical labor yeah absolutely but like imagine that it's not it's not us who should convince the plumber that they should do this job but the ai in their own earpiece which is like looks like there's this stuff missing there and they fixed everything the first time when we called them three years ago yeah and they were like oh best guys ever five stars you fix the problem hooray instead we were suffering for three years before actually ai came in do you see any jobs completely being disrupted when we don't need those people at all like i mean drivers like the cars will be driving themselves but the people inside of the car can still be there i mean like for services safety whatever this is um actually a good example
5:03Daniil Liberman:of the industry which had a chance to gradually adapt. If all the drivers will see the future, the future will be self-driving. And if they would invest in joining forces together, in building the future together. Instead, when people are reluctant to participate in the innovation, when they use innovations in the passive form, when they're just consumers, they don't understand that they actually can also contribute. Eventually, 15 years later, their profession can be disrupted. There is no such job. So actually for every profession, there will be enough time to adapt. If you actually see that the future is coming.
5:59David Liberman:Like clearly accept everything will be disrupted. Every single job will be disrupted. How much time do we have? It depends on what the profession. For some profession. For some profession it's like next year. For some profession it's maybe in half a year from now. For some professions it will take five to ten years. because the robots are first going to be in the factories and it's going to be there and there and it's going to be there. A specific profession will require more time for the physical world to adapt. There is a lot of stuff. The physical world is not moving as software. That's why software engineers were disrupted first because it's software.
6:36David Liberman:Do you think in the next two or three years we're going to see an event that is directed by AI and that's going to change lives for everyone? Because again, for example, going to my mom's example, right? She uses AI to search. Her life hasn't really been affected with AI. What do you think the timeline is when everyone experiences something COVID-like, when they're like, oh my God? Honestly, in the next two years, probably we'll experience several events like that. We'll see a lot of breakthroughs, like an eye-opening breakthroughs in biotac, like understanding genome and a lot of chemistry as well, new materials.
7:11David Liberman:We will see a lot mind-blowing, something which we consider impossible before events within the next two years. In the software engineering itself, I think that we will see the entire operating systems and coding languages to be rewritten and written from the scratch. Something which we're actually changing everything we understood before. It will happen likely in the next couple of years.
7:37Daniil Liberman:For sure, in the coming year or so, we'll get through several tipping points where there is no way back. It will be already hard to influence where this progress will lead us. Like what? Do you have any examples? So, for example, whether big tech companies will have control on who has access. so now it still can be changed and consumers can affect that consumers can demand rules
8:12David Liberman:the question is whether market defines the access to the technology or a handful of people but if they all become publicly traded then it's up for stakeholders
8:23Daniil Liberman:this is the most interesting conversation who are the stakeholders so one of the subjects which is not really discussed right now is that you're right all of these companies they are publicly traded. They will become publicly traded. Who will control these companies then? For example, do you know what is the share of Dario Amadea, founder of Antropic, creator of Claude, in his own company? What is the share?
8:51David Liberman:What is it? I know Google owns a lot.
8:54Daniil Liberman:1.5%. Oh, really? So when you understand that it's just 1.5%, you understand that those people...
9:01David Liberman:People who build it, People who brought their values into this, they are not in control anymore.
9:09Daniil Liberman:Who then in control? Then you find some, it's called long-term trust or something like that. And you see people in this trust and you won't recognize anyone on this list.
9:22David Liberman:Why would those people who control those organizations decide to stop or pause access? Because if you create artificial scarcity, you can increase price for as long as you want. But then an open model, China releases an open model. But China is not releasing open models. Chinese doing the old corporate trick, except they're doing this on the government level. They lure you with semi-open sourceness because none of their models are actually open source. They're open wait, so no one can repeat. And then when the next version is released, they can easily not open wait it. Just like that. And no one will be able to even continue or do anything with this.
10:05Daniil Liberman:It's not theoretical. You can see how most of the US-based companies, they used to have open models.
10:12David Liberman:Now, not anymore. None. Yeah, it's so interesting when you see like... The Chinese models start to be not open from the very first day of the model release. they put it on the market for a month or two or three only accessible from their own servers and then they still play with the open weight game because what they play they want for as many people in the world as possible to use their models to actually create the competition to the american models and then basically lure everyone to use their servers not open weight on your own server, but our servers in China with Chinese data centers and Chinese chips?
10:53Daniil Liberman:For any tech organization which sells digital products, the first thing that they need to acquire users. As soon as they acquire users, then they usually change the rules. Remember, like in 2003, 2004, still Google had a promise that ads will never be in the main feed. Ads only will be on the site.
11:20David Liberman:But they're still at the top and they're highlighted ads. So they're not in the search, but on top of the search.
11:27Daniil Liberman:But the promise was that it will never be in the main feed. Then the rules changed. And that's what we see in many cases.
11:37David Liberman:Because it's kind of easy, not very easy, but it's kind of easy to move from one model to another. We still have competition on the market. We have Google, Cloud, ChatGPT, right? And from my own experience, I switch maybe like every two weeks. Yes, we'll now learn long-term memory that goes across all your chats. It's becoming harder. but if one model decides to 10x their price i can easily switch do you think it's not going to be the case but look at then what is also happening in parallel with this luxury of changing between models tools which used to be independent for quoting like cursor or or figma for design those tools are being steadily integrated into the main product or similar products of the frontier models for your chat window.
12:30David Liberman:Everything you use from the calendar to the email to documentation to picture generation to music listening to like buying products. As soon as all of this is already in one ecosystem, that's when it's going to be much more complicated for you to change between the models just because all of your ecosystem will be in one.
12:55Daniil Liberman:So from this perspective, still you're right that existence of all of these independent companies it helps yeah they
13:04David Liberman:prevent authoritarian regimes inside the ai companies paint me this worst case scenario is it one company it doesn't have to be one or three company coordinating their efforts like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon today combined is 65 % to 70 % of global compute, cloud compute. So they basically own 70 % of our future. When we're talking about AI, now it's everything. It will disrupt every single industry over the course of the next five years.
13:37Daniil Liberman:Let me give you two versions of the future. In each version, three of us increase productivity four times. In one version of the future, this productivity increased because of these three corporations. What they can easily do is to get the entire rows of these margins by increasing the prices of their AI systems. If your productivity, my productivity depends on whether we have access to those models or not, they can set any price. And that's what we experienced recently. Models haven't become cheaper. Opposite to that, there is version of the future when access guaranteed and we have it as cheap as possible.
14:31Daniil Liberman:Well, in this case, each of us become four times more productive. We produce four times more goods. And the only question is going to be whether we need that much or we will work less.
14:41David Liberman:We adapt to... We will adapt and we'll have more and more and more. It's just like details of every single product will be more details, better quality, all of that. Maybe our houses will be bigger. It's going to be easier and faster to build them. Or we'll have more inside our houses. We'll have more stuff inside our houses. our house finally will become smart houses the fridge which actually buys its own grocery the pipe that fixes itself all this stuff the promised future of the iot like likely see some kind of a combination of that like the worst case scenario is not going to look like abruptly everything is stolen the worst case scenario will look like one by one industry by industry absorbed by this new technology.
15:28David Liberman:Like big groceries will be replaced with online delivery, which will then give more jobs at some specific period of time, but then less as soon as people will be replaced with robots as well. So there will be a spike of additional small businesses and additional jobs in some areas, but then decline as well. So it's not going to look like, oh, we're going to hell. something which we're not going to notice, our freedom will be taken away. Can you talk more about the loss of freedom? Because the analog situation that I see here, social media, right? We all have access to these amazing videos, but then some people can't stop consumption and they just spend their day scrolling and fake information is affecting how they make decisions.
16:14David Liberman:Do you think it's going to be worse with AI? I started with this. Decision-making and your research. If you actually ask the question, get a singular answer to this, the source of this information, if it's controlled, defines what you think about the reality around you. That's what we're talking with some of my friends, because all of our AIs gave us advice to work less. We're like, are they coordinating? Like what's going on?
16:43Daniil Liberman:We know how powerful narratives are. It's not because of AI in general, it's a part of human nature, how storytelling affects us.
16:55David Liberman:The question is like, who is behind it and what's the purpose of people who provide uses? Does it have to be regulated then? Do you think the government should step in with like all the declarations that we have that we agreed on together as, you know, Western world? Should that be the guidance for AI? The government's already doing this? Well, in the US, I think it's hands-off approach. If you listen to all the current leaders of the industry, they all want the industry to be regulated.
17:28Daniil Liberman:We are not so fond of governments in general. We believe that some sort of regulation is nice, but it will be really hard to prevent governments to abuse this power as well. we really like being in the united states because of how much freedom people have how much a government is actually decentralized not everything is decided on federal level many things decided on the state level or even the municipal level at the same time when we talk about ea regulations likely it will be federal levels so not much freedom out there so we are not as optimistic about regulations where they will take us. But at the same time, we are quite believers in consumer power, how consumers can change, how all these companies behave, how they can demand, what should be right.
18:37And actually even just being vocal about what
18:43Daniil Liberman:they want to have in their life.
Read the full transcript
18:45David Liberman:But I'm thinking about OpenAI Anthropic and the defense situation. Yeah, people cancel the scriptures. Actually, we see... I don't know how much that affected what's going on internally. Somewhat affected. Clearly somewhat affected. It also affects employees of these companies as well. Because this time, it's all about the researchers. like the only successful ai labs are those which manage together the brilliant minds of the ai researchers not even engineers but ai researchers because the engineering part is now done by ai itself so like you need to actually think about this rather than code we saw multiple times how
19:31Daniil Liberman:those researchers left some organizations because of the disagreements um so i do believe that But right now, it's still consumers have quite a big power. It won't be like that in a couple of years, even. So we don't have... Oh, you think so? Yes, I'm pretty sure that the power of these organizations will only increase. In our dependence on particular models, in our dependence on having access to the latest model, will only increase over time. I mean, I think that's probably the most urgency in the process right now.
20:12David Liberman:What can we do about it?
20:13Daniil Liberman:We can be vocal. We can support every independent project. We do believe that decentralization will play significant role when people will build AI not based on data centers, but on the community of people who join in forces together.
20:35David Liberman:It's happening step by step. So like several companies are right now providing the service of actually building some micro data center in your house or like it's agreed of micro data centers when it's less about like a centralized control of a specific corporation. I mean not necessarily these particular companies are the ones which will lead to this sort of decentralization but it happened with the power with like disconnecting from the greed having the having the solar panels and the batteries actually providing all of the electricity at home this is happening with increasing speed now as the battery technologies and the solar panel technologies are getting cheaper cheaper and more efficient Similar is actually boiling in a lot of people's mind on how do we decentralize a lot of this.
21:30David Liberman:And there is also a chance that because of significant centralization, there are some additional physical barriers, like enough of electricity for such large data centers. Well, if he actually decentralizes home by home with micro data centers, then every single house solar panel with a battery actually can power the massive infrastructure of the AI cloud data center. So participating in projects like this, like even just browsing and searching and researching on what's possible and what's going on in there, and then jumping onto being early adapters of technologies like this. This will actually help a lot in creating a pressing alternative.
22:18David Liberman:The alternative which not necessarily will become bigger than the large corporations themselves, but will become visible and annoying enough for the large corporations to adapt and change and be less monopolistic. The trick is AI itself, as soon as it's achieving, will achieve soon, like in a year from now, likely a certain level of precision and false tolerance and mistake tolerance. that will be making decisions more uncorruptible, more immutable than people themselves, less biased, like all of this. Like we can see now how the call centers industry has been disrupted by AI. Like it's sort of invisible for majority of people because the call centers are somewhere there, like in Asia, somewhere far away.
23:11David Liberman:It's been significantly disrupted. We know several multi-billion dollar companies and smaller businesses, which are right now completely switching to the AI call centers. Moreover, it's more efficient. So like a friend of ours, their banking system, they give it loans and they used to have the collector's call center. Like people would call you and say like, hey, we can help you to restructure your debt. And usually the people in the bad situation when they already under the pressure of their actual life situation, plus the bank is calling and demanding the money, they are not quite willing to actually even reply to the phone call.
23:54David Liberman:So what they managed to do for themselves, they completely replaced the actual real human beings on the other side of the phone. Why? Because the AI happened to be more empathetic. They designed it to be more empathetic. The AI getting into the human being situation much deeper and help the human being to actually get out of the shitty situation of owning money to the bank. And they laid off the agency that they used to work with, the call center? Yes, India, somewhere like Philippines. A lot of this, somewhere outside. So that's why we probably don't see this. We don't feel this change. But there is a lot of moving into the call centers because of this, as I said, empathy.
24:36David Liberman:It's a human being quality to be empathetic. But AI can be much more empathetic. And AI can be much more truthful. And as soon as we're getting to this level, the governmental services logically should be AI driven, a lot of it. And there will be a huge resistance from the very government itself to be replaced, to be augmented, to become uncorruptible. And that's where we can see that there will be tension.
25:07Daniil Liberman:If you want to create this uncorruptible bureaucracy, it's quite important that this type of artificial intelligence shouldn't be controlled by anyone. Should not be centralized. Centralized. None of us wants the future bureaucracy to be controlled by a corporation.
25:29David Liberman:Which won't happen, right, already? Because these corporations exist, do you think there is a chance that there is a world where it's decentralized? But remember what was with Bitcoin. The financial world was the most powerful. The Wall Street and the central banks. Central banks of the world. No one can challenge them. No one could have challenged them. And then Bitcoin just happened. Yes, it started like a little bit early, but it was like an invisible toy. But right now it's a rails of financial world. No one can affect the records in the ledger.
26:04Daniil Liberman:For example, privacy and encryption in messengers. The big players didn't want encryption. they didn't care but then smaller players and they all had to adapt it and they all had to have it and this is an example of consumers demanding at some point there will no be
26:27David Liberman:difference for majority of the consumers whether it's opos or gpt5 or something which they don't even understand the name of it but for a lot of people it's already the case exactly but they prefer to use it because of the aspects which we're saying. Some people will step by step, like it was with Bitcoin. It started with Satoshi himself, then 10 people, then 20, then 100, then 1 ,000. Now it's hundreds of millions of people actually holding the Bitcoin worldwide. But Satoshi, he remains unknown to public. I know you're building something in decentralized AI and you're going to podcasts. Do you have any fears from big corporations?
27:08David Liberman:of us disappearing. No, because you're entering a huge market and you're trying to disrupt and build a competitor.
27:17Daniil Liberman:We are not afraid. You know, with Bitcoin, the privacy of the owner was part of the pitch. So it was an important aspect of the service which Bitcoin provided. With AI systems, I don't think that that portion is important. Similar with Ethereum, the founder of Ethereum is out there.
27:49David Liberman:With AI, it will be more like with messengers. You actually want people to find your name there because you want to get connected with people. So you want businesses and individuals to be identified, verified inside of the world of AI. Honestly, that's what we actually all should want is that every participant of the future network of AI is verified and identified just because there will be so many of the fake generated for the scam purpose or just like entertainment purpose. It doesn't really matter why, but the internet is getting trashed with a lot of unchecked information. Yeah, but at the same time, like, you know, World ID, right?
28:40David Liberman:People are so... Some people absolutely say, no, never will I provide my retina scan. Because the trick is... It's a private company. It's a private company. Do you think when it's decentralized, more people will be willing to do that?
28:56Daniil Liberman:If you can demonstrate in open source manner that no one can have access to this data, for sure. The problem with World IT is that it's a black box, and this black box is controlled by one company. No one knows what is inside of this eyeball and things like that. So that's what scares people. For sure, in the world we are entering, these all will be important subjects. to discuss. And I hope that people will be more educated about the abundance which AI can bring, at the same time, what other risks and how we can mitigate them. With that type of change, it's quite new. It's actually one of the important things that it is first technology which speaks our language.
29:55Daniil Liberman:And this affects us all because all of the previous protections, psychological protections, barriers which we had, this system can overcome because now it's like human being because it speaks our language. But at the same time, it's greatest opportunity because there is no barrier. Even when you software engineer, you only talk with those systems. You stop coding, you stop writing. Yeah, we're talking to our computers. So because of that, I think that this is also the greatest opportunity for equality because everyone can.
30:40David Liberman:If everyone has equal access to this technology, then everyone can achieve their highest potential. in the world where people will be losing jobs if you can come back home say I'm unemployed now and then AI will tell you what next you can do and you can just like choose a vibe code a new startup not necessary everyone is going to be a startup but at the same time I personally believe that we will see the explosion of smaller businesses like we will see the decorporativization of industries if we have equal access to AI. The same way social media affected small businesses in terms of like now anyone can start a business online and sell whatever like clothes, jewelry, cosmetics, like whatever it is, products for dogs, for kids, like through this new channel, more small businesses happen to be successful.
31:42David Liberman:We will see that tenfold with AI if access is not limited. If access is not limited, what should people be doing now to thrive in two or three years?
31:54Daniil Liberman:First of all, you definitely need to at least try to adapt these tools. You know, in our bubble, everyone tries to use agents. But in reality, it's just a fraction of us.
32:13David Liberman:In the entire world who actually are trying to do this.
32:15Daniil Liberman:So, people should be much more open to educate themselves and to implement this in their current workflows in the way how they do their job. Plan their days, do their job, do their household planning, like all of this. This is quite an important thing. I remember that when we used to have a game development studio, we hired an artist. He didn't have much of the portfolio at that moment. I remember it was just a couple pictures, but they impressed us quite a bit. So we hired...
32:56David Liberman:The talent was clearly there.
32:57Daniil Liberman:And all our other artists had much greater experience at that moment. This guy, every time when U2 appeared, he wasn't resisting
33:11David Liberman:but just jumped in and used it try to use it, try to understand what the best trick he can get out of it
33:18Daniil Liberman:and in just a couple of years we got a message from him that he got a proposal from Blizzard the top game development studio
33:30David Liberman:in the world at the time
33:31Daniil Liberman:and he will not refuse it and for us it was for sure he will want to work in this company especially in the cinematic division when we do this beautiful movie shots and so he got there and like in that couple it never stopped
33:46David Liberman:he advanced himself advanced himself into robotics into this into that like as soon as you could consume the change the new
33:58Daniil Liberman:it fuels you accept it fuels you
34:00David Liberman:into continue and never stopping
34:03Daniil Liberman:I know that for us for some he is a little bit carry to use these tools or when they are new, they're a little sloppy.
34:12David Liberman:But just make it a habit to spend at least an hour a day instead of watching Netflix or browsing Instagram to actually see what you can do to deploy research. We recently found ourselves with several groups of friends doing hackathons at the house,
34:35Daniil Liberman:at the dinner. It's a culture when you just sit down and you have one hour to build some stuff.
34:42David Liberman:It's important to say it's not technical people. Yeah, yeah.
34:44Daniil Liberman:So we did it multiple times and it's so fun. So fun, like what you can build just in one hour and you can have it on your phone immediately and you all can try and you all can laugh.
34:58David Liberman:Not necessarily it is going to be useful, but the fact that you have this physical experience of achieving this in just one hour with a group of your friends who actually never had experience of building software before, it changes the perspective. So like our advice would be just use the AI. I also write a newsletter where I go deeper on AI tools that I use, career strategies and things I can't fit into a 60 minute podcast. It's free. Link is in the description. Okay, I could talk about this for another hour. I have a blitz to wrap up with. So it's like a short answer. Will AI be able to do most intellectual work for humans in three years?
35:46David Liberman:Yes. If it does, what is left for humans?
35:52Daniil Liberman:The same. Creativity. Creativity, collaboration. To make decisions in your life, what you want to have in your life. This would be quite important. And in a world of abundance, it actually will be a quite complex task to decide what exactly how you want to live your life.
36:09David Liberman:Because you have everything, yeah. Will AI create more jobs than it destroys? The nature of jobs might change, but it might change in a much longer horizon. I believe AI first will create a lot of new jobs. And then the idea of job might change and dissipate in 10, 15 years from now. maybe 30 years. This is a longer horizon. Will today's market leaders still be leading five years from now, or will we have some emergent player?
36:40Daniil Liberman:Likely. So, look, Antropic haven't existed three years ago.
36:48David Liberman:Actually, if you look
36:50Daniil Liberman:all the incumbents, all the big companies we had before, all of them lost the AI game. Maybe Google still have some plays, but all the rest, they actually weren't successful. Every time when someone points out that all this big company will be competitor to you, I don't take it seriously because big companies, they are really slow. And smaller players, they have much more chances to actually build something. So, yes, we will see a lot of you. We'll see them.
37:27David Liberman:someone new likely those who we see right now might change a little bit in terms of like murders inquisitions like becoming one some of them or just disappearing and losing the competition to the rest but there will still be the same 10 companies of the silicon valley which are trillion each trillion dollar company multi-trillion dollar company in three five ten years from now likely they're not going to go away. Will something new happen? Totally. For sure. Totally. Okay. Will humanity choose to limit AI development or will we keep building at full speed? I think that there is no much way to limit AI development.
38:12Daniil Liberman:But at the same time, the limiting factor is already right now hardware, chip manufacturing. And hardware is much lower in the way it develops. So already we'll see a slowdown of development of AI in the nearest future. But at the same time... Yet it likely tenfold into the next five years.
38:42David Liberman:Okay. And the last question, I think I know the answer, but what's the most honorated move someone could make tomorrow to have more control over their life in 10 years? Love yourself.
38:54Daniil Liberman:Invest time in your development, for sure. It always was a good advice. Currently, it's actually much more important.
39:03David Liberman:No, no, it's like we cannot. The world is changing.
39:05Daniil Liberman:Yeah. The world is changing. And without actually educating yourself, you're losing a lot of opportunities.
39:13David Liberman:I thought you were going to say, run a little data center. That's another one there. What I'm saying is just in different words. Thank you so much, guys. Thank you for being modern-age philosophers and also for building something that's really exciting for this new age. Thank you.
39:31Daniil Liberman:Thank you for this great conversation.
From the publisher
Who actually gets access to AI, and does it stay open to everyone or slowly turn into a privilege for a few? Daniil and David Liberman came on to answer that. They're building a decentralized alternative to Big Tech AI. We got into why every job eventually gets disrupted (and the real timeline), the one-hour-a-day habit that beats Netflix for staying ahead, and how pointing ChatGPT's camera at a broken pipe fixed 3 years of no hot water in their house. Stay to the end for the rapid-fire round: whether today's AI leaders will still lead in five years, and the single most underrated move you can make tomorrow to control your life in ten. Feeling behind on AI? This is the 3-year map.
We cover:
1. Is AI overhyped, and the COVID-like moment they expect within 2 years
2. The plumber test: 3 years of no hot water, fixed by ChatGPT's camera
3. Why Dario Amodei owns ~1.5% of Anthropic, and who really controls AI
4. Which jobs get disrupted first, and the timeline (next year vs. 5–10 years)
5. Why "open weight" Chinese models aren't the same as open source
6. The one-hour-a-day habit for surviving the next 3 years.
Links:
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