Money Talks: Battle of the AI Bots

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2:23Hello and welcome to Money Talks. I'm your host, Elizabeth Spires, and today I'm joined by Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist, Gary Rivlin, who has a book out. It's called AI Valley, Microsoft, Google, and the Trillion Dollar Race to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence. So Gary, introduce yourself and tell us about the book. Great to be here. You know, I just had crazy timing. Right at the end of 2022, I had this idea like, hey, I'm hearing AI starting to get hot. So just before ChatGPT, before the whole world was talking about ChatGPT, I started contacting people in Silicon Valley looking for those trying to get rich, you know, the mad dash to cash in on AI.

3:01So that was my angle from the start. Let others kind of talk about the bigger issues. What does it mean that we're talking to a machine, whatever? I just love the stakes. They don't even really use the word billion anymore. It's now the trillion dollar raise because that really is the stakes here. It's many trillions of dollars. Funny enough, I was paying attention at first to startups. And I thought like, hey, who's going to be the next Google? Who's going to be the next Facebook meta? And it turns out, it's rather depressing to me. I think the next Google is going to be Google and the next meta Facebook is going to be meta Facebook.

3:35But we could get into that. I mean, that makes sense because they're all investing heavily and doing acquisitions. In some cases, incredibly high dollar acquihires in order to, I think, vacuum up all of the AI talent in the valley. Yeah, I mean, the acquihire, for those who don't know, it's buying a company largely just for the talent. And there have been like multi-billion dollar acquihires. So spending multiple billions of dollars just to get the two or three top AI researchers you want. But, you know, across the board, this is so expensive. It's like it costs hundreds of millions nowadays, billions to train and operate these models.

4:13It's really hard for a startup to get access to that kind of money. You need data. I mean, Google has all this search data. How is two people in a dorm room going to have access to the data that you need for training and stuff? And of course, you know, these days, there was a news story a couple weeks ago in the Times, New York Times, that Facebook was offered someone or gave someone a$250 million contract. That's like the highest played baseball players kind of contract. So, you know, it's hard for a startup to compete in that realm. It's funny because a lot of people view technology as something that's fundamentally lower barrier to entry because software is scalable in a way that other businesses aren't.

4:52But with AI, it's very different. When AI people talk about compute, they're talking about a limited resource and the amount of investment you need to actually do this. So just to go back to your book, your book is primarily about Reid Hoffman's AI ventures. And his primary company that he invested in is not a household name. It's called Inflection AI. Can you tell us a little bit about what happened there? It was an email from Reid Hoffman in 2022 that gave rise to this book. and he just, he's the founder of LinkedIn and co-founder of LinkedIn. And he said, oh, I'm co-founding my first company.

5:26It was like, dear friends. It turns out I'm one of his 2 ,500 friends. So am I. You know, but it was like, hey, I've co-founded my first startup since LinkedIn. And I had programmed earlier in my life. And like, I just love this idea he laid out. Instead of us having to invent machine languages, instead of having to learn the computer's language, the computer's going to speak our languages. And that just kind of like speaking human, I just loved that idea. And so Hoffman, he was one of the initial investors in OpenAI, which gave us ChatGPT. He's on the board of Microsoft. They've been a central player in AI.

6:01But I love the idea that he was coming up with a startup that wasn't paying attention just to IQ, but EQ, emotional intelligence. And, you know, they really kind of stake that out. And, you know, I played with it. It was rather extraordinary. And I kind of think that's underrated these days and how important it is to winning the AI chatbot wars, like, you know, one of the more popular ones is Claude from Anthropic. And that's because it's kind of fun to talk to. It's playful. And so I spent time with the other co-founders, engineers, you know, those working on this, trying to like get it just right.

6:35It was, you know, sort of whack-a-mole. You want it too friendly and then it's glazing you. It's complimenting you. It's just kind of insipid. But, you know, then if you kind of turn that down. So it was kind of really fun to, it had a really, it loved emojis at first. They had like, okay, chill. Pi was called. PI is the name of their chatbot. How much of that do you think is really just a function of the founder ethos? Like I know Reid a little bit and he's kind of, he's teddy bearish, but will also be formidable when the situation calls for it. But he has, I think, higher EQ than most billionaires.

7:08How much of that was really sort of built into a sort of philosophical thing from the beginning? I like that description of Hoffman. I call him a billionaire you can almost root for. But inflection came more from partner, the co-founder, the main impetus for the company, the CEO, this guy, Mustafa Suleiman. Mustafa Suleiman is kind of royalty within the machine learning, within the AI world, because he was a co-founder of DeepMind, the first great machine learning company. It goes back to 2010 and founded in London. Google bought it for like$650 million in 2014. And, you know, I'll give them credit, Hoffman, Suleiman, the whole team.

7:47They really cared about personality. They really cared about safety. They really wanted a certain bot that had a certain sensibility that you could go to it and query it, have a serious conversation about politics or life or I'm scared of this. And, you know, as opposed to, you know, people use ChatGPT, they're changing. and they're starting to really amp up the EQ, especially with four and five, where it was a conversation. You go to chat CPT and it's like, what should I do in this situation? And here's five things to consider. They just give you bullet points. But with Pi, it was kind of fun.

8:21You'd have this dialogue and, hey, how you doing? And you know, you kind of chit chat and compliment you on your stupid jokes again. It really was too much of a people. Yeah, syphphatic. That's been a recurring criticism of some of the AI bots, especially whenever they lean into that. it ends up people get very attached to their bots and do insane things. Actually, OpenAI, when they put out GPT-5, they just said, this is what you're going to use. You're not going to use the pass methods. And many people, including me, were very pleased because if you don't pay for it, you were using an old version.

8:57And here I was getting the cutting edge best version of it. But a lot of people were really disappointed because they had developed a relationship with GPT-4.0 or 4.0. And so they got a lot of heat for it. Like, wait, you just overnight just kind of removed this relationship I have. I think the future is going to be very, very interesting, very, very weird. Because 10 years from now, they're going to be people who have very deep, I call it romantic relationships. I mean, it's already starting to happen, but I think it's going to be far more commonplace. There was a tabloid story yesterday about a woman who got engaged to her boyfriend.

9:33So mazel tov. I guess it's already happening. And GPT-5 has not gotten a great reception. And I think partly because of what you were talking about, but also because Altman kept talking about it like it was the arrival of general intelligence, AGI. And then what people actually got was what seems to be a more incremental model. Have you played with it? What are your thoughts? Yeah, and kind of the bigger point here is hype is really, overhype is really hurting the cause of those advancing AI. I use AI all the time, all day for work. A research assistant to bounce ideas off of is a pretty good editor.

10:13I use them all. I feel it's kind of my job. So, you know, Claude happens to be my favorite for writing and editing. But yeah, I've been using ChatGPT because of the upgrade. I think it's a miracle. I think it's alchemy. I can't believe I could work with this thing and it writes so fast. And like, you know, it's an amazing tool. But the problem with the rhetoric coming out of Silicon Valley, as if it's this Uber thing that's going to run our lives and make all the decisions like, no, it's a tool. A calculator is a tool. A camera is a tool. It's amazing. It lets you do amazing, amazing things. But as a co-pilot, we could get into the whole artificial general intelligence debate.

10:51But there was such a drum roll. Altman was was, you know, promoting it on X and, you know, other social media. and it's just, it was an inevitable disappointment. As opposed to ChatGPT, when it came out November 30th, 2022, I think it was the greatest flex in the history of technology. They didn't call a press conference. They didn't put out a press release. There was no press event. They just posted it with a research note and, you know, a few people put it on X and it kind of took some time, took a few weeks before it became a big deal, before people, you know, a lot of people started using it.

11:23Now, of course, it's, you know, of the Steve Jobs-ian like events where the great Oracle, in this case, Sam Altman comes on stage and, you know, and it's just like, yeah, no, I would just go back to what you had. Just let people discover, let people tell you it's amazing. Don't tell us it's amazing because we're going to be disappointed because it's not artificial general intelligence. It's a slight improvement for most of us on the previous version. What I find sort of surprising is that we use AI every day. It's built into most of the big software that we use and it's been around for decades.

11:55I remember reading Marvin Minsky's book in 2007. And I think the real inflection point was really, it was ChatGPT being released because it was positioned as a consumer product. And I think it was probably the first one that people really played with and they were astonished by it. Why didn't the other bots break through like that? That's a great question. But to back up a bit, the great surprise for me when I started doing research on this is like AI has been around since the 1950s. The term artificial intelligence was coined in the mid-1950s. And there's been all sorts of advances, you know, key points, you know, kind of in the early 2010s.

12:34They realized, like, wait, we shouldn't, like, code every possible alternative. That's not the way to create artificial intelligence. Let's have machine learning. Let's kind of, it's akin to the way a human learns. We'll feed it data, books, articles, kind of Reddit posts, whatever. And it'll learn like humans do with, you know, with feedback. Like, yeah, that's not a great answer. It will learn over time. So that was a great breakthrough. But, you know, if I worked at Google in late 2010s or early 2020s, I would have been going out of my mind. In fact, Mustafa Sullivan was. And in fact, banging on the table like this is amazing what we have.

13:09They had ChatGPT as early as 2020. They had wasn't called that, but they had a bot that could do exactly what we all discovered when we started playing with ChatGPT could do. But Google's a big company. Google brings in tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars. And they were worried, the PR arm, the marketing arm was worried. What will it mean? What happens if it starts misbehaving? Because there have been examples in 2016, Microsoft put out Tay. It was one of these chatbots, trained, not a very good idea, in retrospect, on social media. And within 24 hours, they had to pull it down because it was, you know, a Nazi saluting white supremacist.

13:48and saying anti-Semitic stuff. And so they had to pull it inside. Kind of the specter of Tay just kind of hung over Microsoft, Google, every big company. So in retrospect, it was inevitable that it was going to be a startup, a startup like OpenAI that put this thing out because they didn't have as much to lose. And you put your finger on it. Like Google Translate's been around since the mid-2010s. That's AI. The suggestions we get from Netflix, you might like this movie based on your previous watching habits. That's AI. But that's in the background. What was astonishing, what is astonishing about ChatGPT and the other large language models, the chatbots, is you could talk to it.

14:26You see it working. You hear it working. Okay, we're going to stop right there and take a quick break for an ad, and then we'll be back with Gary Ribland.

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16:32Record yourself for just 15 seconds and HeyGen builds an AI avatar that makes professional videos for you on demand so you can post everywhere your audience is, as yourself, without filming every time. Your first three videos are free at heygen.com slash pod. That's H-E-Y-G-E-N dot com slash P-O-D. There's never been a better time to get outside and experience the benefits of nature. Discover nearby trails and explore the outdoors with all trails. Download the free app today and find your outside. When you started this book, I think you were thinking about writing or started to write a book about Marc Andreessen.

17:13And you decided to do this instead. So I'm curious about how you contrast Andreessen's version of techno-optimism with, say, reads. Or do you think that there's a material difference between them? It's funny. So I was thinking in the fall of 2022, and I was unfortunately right. Like, wait, you know, kind of the base, the center of a lot of the right wing stuff was Silicon Valley. And Dreesen had a big cloud forum, Peter Thiel. And these were folks, so I've been covering tech since the mid-1990s. I read for Wired, New York Times. I was covering these folks. And, you know, they would all talk to me.

17:53In fact, it's all my fault. I did the first big profile of Peter Thiel. I put him in the New York Times Magazine in 2004, 2005. You know, it's funny. I always found him such an interesting guy. Obviously, we have very different politics, but it was something like, you know, he's principled. And I kind of feel like all of that's gone out the window. Well, Nick Denton found him interesting, too. And that's how this whole thing started. Yeah, I'm not the only one, apparently. But getting to your question, it's like Hoffman has a really interesting construction. There's the Doomers. And those, I feel like they're kind of watch too many Hollywood movies.

18:27They're just fearing like laser-eyed robots subjugating humanity. Like we have a lot to worry about in AI. And that's so far in the future. Let's worry about the stuff now, jobs, surveillance, AI and warfare. I have a long list of those. So there's the Doomers on one side. And then the other, and this is where I'd put Marc Andreessen and much of Silicon Valley, much of those working on AI right now, Zoomers. Anything that gets in the way of AI is a crime against humanity because AI could do so much good in medicine and science and education, et cetera, that any regulation, even trust and safety teams within the corporations themselves, the creators of these models, that's the enemy.

19:07Reid Hoffman, and I put myself here, is somewhere in the middle. I mean, he's closer to a Zoomer than a Doomer, and he calls him a Bloomer. And that's like he, again, I put myself in this category. I see great potential in AI. I think if we're not stupid about it, and by the way, that's a big but, it could be a big net positive. There'll be negatives, like with any new technologies. But I think this could be a real positive. But let's be smart about it. Let's be deliberate about it. Let's have guardrails in place. Let's really listen to trust and safety. One of the interesting things, so in 2022, when I started this, trust and safety was front and center.

19:44In fact, OpenAI was created in the mid-2010s because they were worried about Google only looking at the profit motive for AI. It's too important to leave it for profit. And obviously, that went by the wayside with OpenAI, but it went by the wayside with Google. Google, in the late 2010s, promised they would never let their AI use for surveillance or warfare. Started 2025, they dropped that. The trust and safety team's like, oh, no, we're in a war against open AI. We're in a race, an arms race against open AI and the other makers of these LLMs. And so a lot of people were shifted from trust and safety to let's be.

20:20Well, they went from don't be evil to be a little bit evil selectively here and there, if necessary. But don't you? I always thought it's funny. I covered Google going public. I met the two founders when they were a 40-person company in like 2000. I always said don't be evil. I thought that is the lowest bar that we're like, if there's a homeless guy in the street, don't punch him. Don't be evil. Like, yeah, okay, that's easy. Have it like, try to be good. I always thought that was kind of such a low bar and they're even sometimes failing by that low bar. It kind of is, but not from a perspective of, I don't even think it's malicious intent, but there is an ethos in Silicon Valley where you ship your product and then if it has deleterious effects somewhere, you fix it after it happens.

21:04and that's how a lot of the really destructive things happen. I mean, this in a way is my single biggest worry with AI. It's in the hands of too few people and it's people who have proven that they're not very trustworthy. And so I do believe Google has the best intentions, but they also care more about winning this race. It's a trillion dollar stakes. It's the future of the company. And I think they rationalize a lot in the name of that. In fact, another big worry about AI is, you know, it's on a collision course with climate change. These data centers, they're unquenchable. They're just building more and more and more of it.

21:44It's really putting a huge strain on the electric grid. But so meanwhile, you have Google and Microsoft and Meta have these climate neutrality promises. So they're investing money in green energy and stuff. But that's just an accounting trick. It's like there's a fixed amount that's being produced at this point. And so they are really, because of their desire to win the AI wars, I think within the next year or two, consumer rates are going to go way up and we're going to start to have brownouts and, you know, kind of restrictions. Some areas. There is demonstrable proof that rates are going up in areas.

22:20And it's interesting because, you know, Elon Musk is, you know, re-headquartering X in Texas, which already has a very fragile grid that's been largely privatized. And, you know, if their data centers are there, that seems like a recipe for disaster. Right. It's starting to happen. I'm just saying, I think it's going to be widespread. It's interesting. I didn't quite realize this before doing the research. The last couple of decades, electricity demand has been pretty flat. And so prices might creep up because they have to upgrade equipment and all. But now, largely with AI, electric vehicles, whatever, a host of things, demand is spiking.

22:58We're slowly adding capacity. And, you know, now Trump with his big ugly bill and other actions is taking away the financial incentives for wind, solar, battery, geothermal. And so it's making it where a lot of that stuff is being stopped at the exact same point where a lot of that stuff should be accelerating ahead. There's a school of thought that says part of the problem is that when we think about AI and where the money is going, it's all going into large language models. And there are other types of AI that might be promising. Gary Marcus, who is a very, I would say, skeptic, but also enthusiastic about AI, likes to argue that part of the problem is that we won't get to AGI until the models are really able to generalize in a broad way.

23:44And so he argues for a kind of model that's a neurosymbolic model. which ostensibly could be less of an energy suck than the LLMs that we are now all taking for granted or core de facto AI. Where do you see that going? Or are we so invested in LLMs now, that's just the inevitable route that we're taking? Well, some of the more interesting stuff coming out of Google in recent weeks is around image models, like either video or still images. So there's plenty of money being put into that. To me, where I really agree with Gary Marcus and people a lot smarter than me about AI also agree, like machine learning, large language models brought us so far, but we really need another breakthrough or two before these things really can attain anything like artificial general intelligence.

24:35You know, there's this idea that a machine, a model could best humans at more or less everything brain-wise. And so, because you see the limits. I mean, the phrase I love, Professor Bender at the University of Washington, stochastic parrot. And that's just this idea like, these things are amazing. They know a lot about everything. They have a PhD level knowledge on history and subspecialties of science across the board, but they don't understand a word. They don't have common sense. They don't have reason. And another big fear I have is autonomous AI. AI in charge of something. No, no, no. It's a tool.

25:11A human has to be in charge. We have the common sense. We have the idea. We have the goal. And this thing can help us get there. But I really fear with some of the rhetoric, and of course, it's a cost saving for corporations. They always like that, that we're going to have autonomous AI when it could do really stupid things, even though it's in quotes smart. My favorite recent example of this is I was looking for foods that are high in potassium. And so I just Googled how much potassium does a banana have? And the AI response gave me a number, but also said, you know, this is X percent of the daily value.

25:47Therefore, you should eat 14 bananas a day. And that was the kind of reasoning that you get. It's entertaining until you realize how many companies want to incorporate AI for actual decision making, especially when they believe that they can replace very high cost humans. Exactly. Exactly. Now we're getting to another fear, you know, jobs. I think it's much more of a slow roll than people think. Like corporations want to save money, but corporations are conservative. They're testing, they're piloting, let someone else do it because it's expensive right now. So I think it's going to be 5, 10 years, maybe 15 years before this really kind of infiltrates every aspect of society, you know, schools, business, social relationships.

26:31It's happening. But I think it's going to be a long time. But it is happening. So the marketing team of 20 and some big corporations is going to be a marketing team of 15 or 10 or 8 because you could use AI as sort of your junior member of your team. Like, give me 15 illustrations of this idea. Give me a hundred ideas. And so I think AI really is coming for the job. It will create new opportunities, new job categories, just like the internet, just like every technology. But I think it's going to eliminate far more jobs than it creates. So how do you use AI in your everyday life? Well, the first thing I did when I got this idea for a book is write me a 5 ,000 word book proposal for a book about AI.

27:12And I actually, I learned two things. Like it's much better read. It has a much better memory than I had. So they're like little insights or factoids, data points I could use. But the other thing is like, it can't write for anything. It's very formulaic. It flattens. A lot of cliches, a lot of. You know, if I made a living writing press releases, I'd be worried because that is formulaic. But it's worth, I don't know, GPT-9, you know, maybe eventually it's going to be able to write a novel that impresses us. But. Can it write a joke? That's my bar. Can it write a good joke that comes out of nothing?

27:43That's the. Reid Hoffman would say, yes, I've read the jokes that he thinks are good. I'd say not quite, not quite yet. It gets the idea of a joke, but you know, so that's my long-winded way of saying I don't use it for writing, but you know, it's a really interesting research assistant. Oh, what about hallucinations? Well, I use the ones that footnote. And so like, oh, that's a really interesting quote. That's a really good data point. And then I go, oh, good. CNBC has an article. That person did in fact say that quote. So I, you know, I need to verify, but then again, I've, you know, hired interns in the past and they've made mistakes too.

28:14Sometimes I think we're unforgiving about AI, that the mistakes it makes, humans can say really stupid things too, like 35 to 40 ,000 humans die every year in the US because of auto accidents. There's rarely a headline about it, but if a self-driving car killed somebody, it would make a headline, that kind of idea. But so I use it for research. It's really good for like a sounding board. I've used it like, I have to have a tough conversation with one of my brothers, you know let's play it out kind of thing i used pi uh my son was facing a serious surgery he's fine went great but we were really worried about it like i'll give pi credit it asked all the right things it expressed concern it i don't know if it meant anything to me but it did get me thinking about things that i might not otherwise have been thinking about but the real way i use it or maybe the most valuable way it's a great editor i'll tell us something's not working here i need a transition.

29:07Give me 10 different transitions. And like, it's never like I cut and paste and say, use that. But it gives me a lot of good ideas. And it's good at spotting mistakes. And like, oh, you have an agreement, you know, your verbs and nouns aren't agreeing here kind of thing. One other thing I didn't list, it's great at summarizing, which is like, there's a 20 page paper, like, oh my god, I don't have all afternoon. But can you summarize the key points here? And it's very useful, limited, but useful. Yeah, that's kind of how I use it. I think of it as an administrative tool. So last week I needed to set up an LLC and some corporate stuff and said, give me a checklist from easiest to most difficult.

29:45And then another one does the order of operations. I should do this stuff because I would spend eight hours down rabbit holes trying to figure it out and get it wrong. They also think about what you've just said. I think people are less forgiving with AI because they don't have any guarantee that it will learn any lessons from mistakes. Whereas with humans, we kind of assume that if you fuck up really badly, you're going to internalize it and do better next time. And we don't necessarily have any evidence that AI does that without explicit training. Right, right. It's kind of deliberate that it's not learning from its mistakes.

30:19They train these models, but then they kind of freeze them in time. And so some, most nowadays, are connected to the internet. So you could ask it about something that happened in yesterday's news. But the model itself, and I think this is a good thing. If it was just learning on its own, that's autonomous AI. And that's where something bad can really happen. So that is one way that they're largely being conservative in their approach to that. But it also means, again, they're not human. In fact, my favorite construct for AI is alien intelligence. We've never had anything like this. Again, it knows so much about everything.

31:00In a way, no human being on the planet. In fact, it is artificial general intelligence at all. It's such a broad range of knowledge about everything. You can ask about contracts or creating an LLC or whatever. And it has strong domain knowledge, but doesn't understand a thing. And I think we need to figure out how to use it. It sounds so authoritative. And when someone sounds so authoritative, like, oh, we'll just trust that entity, that person And in the past, now this AI, that's not the way to use it. It's like, again, I think it's this great tool for me, for you, for writers. But that doesn't mean, oh, someone who's not a writer can then write what we write.

31:36The human element is, in fact, right after ChatGPT came out, people were sharing like ways they used it. And one of my favorite examples is someone asked to explain Marxist theory in the version of a Taylor Swift song lyrics. And it was brilliant. It was funny. It did such a great job of doing it. But it's the human who had this special idea. Like, it just did what the human conceived. Some people think, like, oh, no, what a filmmaker. Like, you can't say, like, make me a Martin Scorsese film. You, the human, still have to have the plots, the characters, the twists, and all that. And I think that's the way to understand it.

32:12You could be faster, but it's still, as an artist, as a creator, as a thinker, as a boss, you're still the one in charge. So why do you think people, when they think about what can I use AI for, what can I replace, they immediately go toward human creative things like writing or creating art? Why is that the first thing? It's probably the thing that AI is least capable of being helpful with. I'll confess I've had that same idea. I wish I was a good draw. I wish I was an artist. And, you know, all you have to do is conceive the idea. And, you know, one of these models can see it through. I'll steal a term from Rita Hoffman.

32:53It gives us superpowers. You know, he's never big, good at languages, but in his voice, he could deliver a speech or it can deliver a speech in Italian and Chinese and, you know, a multitude of languages. So I think we're all kind of amazed by this idea of a superpower to write, to create and stuff. I mean, no one really dreams like, wow, I hope this bot could help me do my spreadsheet, you know, more quickly. Like, I do think that is where it's going to be used. But I think that's where everyone's mind goes. Because like, oh, it'll make me good at writing and I've never been good at writing kind of idea.

33:29Yeah, I think that's true. I used it a year or two ago. I have a tattoo of a seraphim. It's very abstract. And so I used the biblical description, dumped it into a generative model just to see what it would spit out. And it spit out so many just crazy things that I wouldn't have visuals that I couldn't, my human brain could not have thought of. And so I sent a bunch of them to my tattoo artist and said, not asking you to copy this, but they all look a little demonic and creepy and I like it. And so he, after looking at the generative stuff for inspiration or just an idea that would be wildly different than his preconceived notions about what this was supposed to look like, he came back with something that was incredible and did not look like any of the AI stuff, but it just took that one prompt to get him to think about it in a different way.

34:20And that's what I think of as the potential for it. And this is perfect. Again, it's you, the human had this idea, used this tool, shared it with another human who didn't copy it. I mean, none of them sound usable, but it helped him do something better or something that pleased you. I had an interesting experience just this past weekend. My 16-year-old son likes to draw, and Google has this thing they're promoting right now, like take it, they said for your seven-year-old, he's 16, but take a drawing your kid did and we will animate it. We will turn it into a story just based on that one static picture.

34:56And like, we were just amazed because he had written this short story for English class last year about an artist who is so into his drawings that he melts into it and loses himself. And how is he ever going to get out of his drawing? And that was the story. Gemini, Google's Gemini came up with it. It just like it was spooky. Like, wow, I guess you're a great artist. That was in there. But, you know, I mean, this is some of the alchemy. This is some of the miracle nature of it. Again, this whole argument, is it a good thing? Is it a bad thing? You know, should we halt it? We can't. It's innovation.

35:31You can't stop the tides. It's coming. I just wish we'd stop having these more esoteric things. It is here. It's going to have a big impact on society. you know, schooling, jobs across the board, warfare, surveillance. Let's talk about it. You know, let's not debate whether we should pause this thing. It is here, ladies and gentlemen. Let's figure out what's the best approach. So it would be more of a positive than a negative. I guarantee you bad things will happen with AI, just like, you know, the internet who thought like, oh, social media, and that's going to, you know, help to set us each at each other's throats because it just amps up outrage kind of thing.

36:07I mean, bad things happen, but we could debate whether television, the car, you know, the internet are good things. And I think that's the kind of debate we will be having, but let's do what we can now to ensure it's more of a positive than a negative. So what's your, your both optimistic case and your pessimistic case? And where do you put your P-doom or your probability that we all just get destroyed by AI? Yeah. So this idea of P-doom, you know, it's not zero because that, I guess, is possible in asteroids going to hit earth and destroy us all, you know? And so it's not zero, but it's, it's very, very low.

36:46These things aren't even close to doing, able to do the kind of things we're scared of. They're really limited. So I covered the dot-com years, like mid-1990s and the rise of the internet. And, you know, a lot of similarities, the money being thrown at it, the hype. And of course there was a big bust. And I, I kind of think more or less the same is going to happen here. I don't know if there's going to be a bust on the order of the dot-com bust because that was a lot of publicly traded companies. These are private companies, but the world is going to be disappointed. A bad thing or two is going to happen.

37:19And so then the question is, what's on the other side? Again, let's just use the internet, the dot-com years. Like, okay, a lot of great ideas were thrown out there. No, you can't get rich overnight. It's going to take a long time before we have the critical mass for social media and that kind of stuff or e-commerce. Oh, we had to figure out how to pay for credit cards and trust and all that kind of stuff. And I think that's what's going to happen with AI, that it's going to be a 10 or 15 year trajectory here that as people kind of struggle with it, as they improve it. Another pet peeve of mine is, I respect Barry Marcus, he's really interesting, but I feel like he's someone who embodies this, like, wait, look, it's making this stupid mistake.

38:00It's terrible. Like, okay, well, it's a young technology. They're improving it every year. There's a lot of smart folks, a lot of money being thrown at this. And it's going to get much better. Some people, Reid Hoffman, and Salfa Suleman said, you know, the hallucination rate is going to go way, way, way, way down. I don't know. Other people say that'll never be solved before. But like, again, this idea that we're unforgiving, like it's a thing that's being created. It's like judging the internet based on 1997 website, you know, like everything looks like Craigslist, you know, kind of back then.

38:32And you really couldn't do much with it. But okay, well, now, of course, we see what you could do with it. I think that's going to be true with AI. I do fear that people are going to be too impressed with it. They're going to put it in charge of things. And I think that in the short and medium term, I do not want autonomous AI on anything that matters. Long term, maybe we could argue, but I still think I don't want AI in charge. I would agree with that. Well, thank you, Gary. This has been a great conversation and we're pleased to have you. It was a lot of fun. Thanks for having me. And that's it for Money Talks.

39:12Thank you to our wonderful guest, Gary Rivlin, for joining. And thanks to Jessamyn Molle of Seaplane Armada for producing. We'll be back on Saturday with our regular edition of Slate Money. Thank you.

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