9AM HOUR: Anthropic's IPO Prospectus, AI Summit at the White House, Oura Postpones IPO 9/29/26

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1:13Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Faber has the morning off. Stocks looking to stabilize here after the worst S &P day in more than a month. Yields are stabilizing. The 10-year did blast through five and a quarter yesterday. West Texas flirting with an eight-handle this morning amid some chatter that Iran's leverage in the strait is weakening. Exports hitting their highest level since the war began. Our roadmap begins, though, with Anthropics IPO prospectus. Reuters says the company posted a net loss of$42 billion in 25 with plans to spend more than$500 billion in the coming years.

1:49Speaking of Anthropics, Ammo Day will be joined by NVIDIA's Jensen Wong, Meta CEO Zuckerberg, and a bunch of AI executives for a meeting at the White House later today. And then there's Aura, the smart ringmaker postponing its IPO, citing market uncertainty, what the move might signal about the state of the IPO market more broadly. Let's begin, though, with AI on center stage as the president does get ready to meet with tech titans later today. Reuters did report Anthropics Prospectus, says the IPO could value the company at more than$2 trillion. Reportedly shows revenue grew 12x last year to nearly$4.6 billion, although the company lost more than$8 billion on an operating basis.

2:26The startup plans to spend, as we said,$518 billion on cloud computing and infrastructure obligations in the coming years. Prospectus also reportedly contains a warning that the technology may pose, quote, catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, Jim, self-preserving behaviors resembling blackmail. Look, first of all, we don't know enough because this is 2025. and maybe if it grows even faster, it's obviously better, maybe that's$2 trillion. I think that the dialogue around the doomsday is important to put in because I think there are people who feel that's the case when you listen. I think they just want to confirm, yes, all this could happen.

3:11When Jensen Mung spoke to Ezra Klein, he tried to take that off the table. And the fact is that the public has it on the table, so you have to address it. And I thought that was actually prudent to address it. I don't think you want to say, hey, look, we've heard all the things that you're worried about if we're not. That would be inaccurate. I don't want to lead anybody down the wrong path. But I remain convinced that it is the business AI in this very exciting company. Anthropocos. And these reported, I mean, we should emphasize reported metrics, yes. Do they make you feel like an IPO is imminent?

3:47Yeah, I do, because I think that the numbers for this year are going to be terrific. And they've raised the cost. You know, they've had two big fundraisers. But I think a lot of people want to, look, a lot of people want to own SpaceX. And they've just got, like, they're peeling off stock constantly. I think that Anthropic is the company that people just say, well, wait a second, Meta. There was one moment where Meta said, well, you know, we can't use it enough. They had a leaderboard. Amazon loves it. Amazon Web Services. And I just think people just, they want AI plays that are other than a video.

4:20Yeah. It's colliding with a bunch of other things. This developer day at OpenAI, they did delay at least the release of 6.1 Astra. It failed their safety standards. So the market's going to wrestle with the promise of it and the risks of it, yes? Totally right. And there you've got the two camps. You've got, let's call it Sam Altman, because OpenAI did not go with Jensen. And Jensen's remarkable announcements, but Anthropic did. You've got these two camps, and one camp says it's an engineering problem. This is George Kurtz, Kraut. It's an engineering problem. Todd McKinnon, Okta, why big price increases there.

4:59It's an engineering problem. And then the other side, it's an existential problem. Now, existential problem, you're never going to solve it. What is this, like Wee Claw? It's like Camus. They should put that in, you know, why don't you, like, reference Camus? The stranger? I thought he really had that thing down. How about Sartre? Sartre. Sartre. Sartre. No, I know. I took the class. I said, I got to get out of this class, so I'm going to get a C in this thing. Never be able to get to grad school. Yeah. Existential philosophy. It's hard. So, I mean, in your view, what? It's wise to ignore it? I mean, does it compress valuation?

5:32No, I do think that there's a subtle contempt that I think these, both anthropic and open AI, to some degree, have toward the cybersecurity people. I mean, here's Jensen saying, listen, we don't hug your face. This wouldn't happen. that whole hugging face changed the whole dialogue. You talk to George Kirch, he's tired of hearing that they're useless. When the stock was at 200, Daria was saying that CrowdStrike was useless, not picking on them. Typically, they did do glass wing. That was a nice sign. But the contempt that these people have for the nuts and bolts people, like Todd McKinnon, who just says, listen, every one of these things has an identifier.

6:13We can just say the identifier is doing the wrong thing. They never talk like that, the visionaries at OpenAion and Problematics. They never say, you know what, Todd McKinnon's got some good ideas. And yet Todd McKinnon spoke and his stock went up, I don't know, by a third because he came up with a solution. Why do you think they're hostile toward that space? I think some of it's arrogance. I think that the people who do cybersecurity and the main ones are, you know, really it's George Kurtz and it's Palo Alto. it's Okta. They are visionaries. They're engineers who know how to do the job. And engineers who know how to do the job seem almost too pedestrian for these people.

6:58And you have to think about in your life, there were always people who were ethereal in nature and kind of had a Wizard of Oz attitude. And then there's other people behind the curtain doing the thing. And George Kurs is behind the curtain. I'm with the behind the curtain guys. Yeah, well, market appreciates them as we've talked about in the last several weeks. What that company's done? And this doubling of the year, over year. George has been on their money an incredible number of times, saying pretty much the same thing over and over again, which these are engineering problems. Now, Jensen really is going heavy with it's an engineering problem.

7:30The companies that are in that engineering problem can't, that Jensen revealed. Gigantic. The only one was Sam was open AI and AI. Look, am I worried? I'm worried. You read Jamie Diamond's piece, we're going to talk about that. I'm more worried about what Jamie Diamond talks about than I am of what Darius is talking about. I think your enthusiasm right now, I think, is really located in meta. You're going to talk to Dina tonight on Mad Money. You've written this morning, we need to start thinking about it as an enterprise company. Look, I made the mistake of thinking that news was something that will make us more productive.

8:08Well, look, yeah. So I want to get a new prescription sent from Warby Parker to the guy that lends crafters. Well, okay, maybe I can use it. No, no, no. I mean, Dina Powell McCormick, okay, 10 ,000 women, 10 ,000 small business, both her initiatives. She ran them at Goldman, probably the foremost small business person in America, is in charge of this, along with the CJ Desai, who mysteriously quit MongoDB to go report immediately to Mark, to Zuckerberg. And the thing that really is incredible about this is it's about the 200 million small businesses and getting more time, more productivity. We don't really think, some of the younger people, I want to be more productive.

8:46I don't like to be more productive. I want to do my job. But small business has no choice. They have to be more productive. This is a small business tool. That's what Mark has done. The full interviews tonight, but we did cut, I think, a little preview of what you guys talked about. Take a listen. On a great team at Goldman Sachs that launched 10 ,000 small businesses, couldn't be more proud of where it continues to be today. And I'm really proud to exclusively on Mad Money launch Muse for Small Business. It is the next iteration of Muse. It's basically allowing small business owners to take the most precious thing they have, their time, and to use it on building their business for the future, not worrying about the back office work.

9:29So it is starting customer conversations. It manages cash flow and inventory for small business owners. We're seeing small business owners have it design its website and actually communicate directly with its customers. And so we're just thrilled. Look forward to the full interview tonight, of course, 6 p.m. Thank you. You have some ideas about multiples. Well, yeah, you've got a 17 multiple out of two years for for meta. An enterprise business always gets a much higher multiple than a consumer business. The big knock on Meta is all he's really done, Mark, is come up with a commercial, a product that is going to be cyclical as all get out.

10:08This is the first secular product offered to enterprise. You've heard what they're doing for individuals. Forget that. That's like WhatsApp. They're not going to get any money on that. What they're going to make money are the big users who are small business people who want to be able to grow their business. And anyway, I've done like a ton of small business. And all I can tell you is that I don't know where the time went. And I know now where the time will go. I'll just talk to Muse and get, look, I'm trying to figure out how do I handle this unemployment situation? How much do I owe New York State?

10:36Right, right. What should my hiring plan be next year? Yeah, and here's my revenue. What can I afford to do? The back of the house, I have Danny Meyer on tonight, the great rest of her. The back of the house is doing this. The front of the house is doing this. What should we have as a tips policy? That failed for Danny. But I think that people have to understand that's the holy grail. And I should have known it. But, you know, sometimes you just see, CJ decides leaving. Well, he's like the foremost enterprise software guy. And I'm thinking, well, wait, Meta's consumer. No. Right. And when you have sticky enterprise business, we always give it a much higher level.

11:12So look for Meta's multiple. We expand far more than it has. You think 24 is in the realm of the reasonable? What? Yes. Wow. Yes. A little bit better than market multiple. Yeah. And it's funny. Ben Thompson, Sir Tech, he's really pretty terrific. He was talking about how when Google went, they brought in Thomas Karian, who's really an amazing executive, and Google Cloud, even though it's the third biggest, it suddenly exploded the mobile because Google was viewed as a consumer product, even though it had a lot otherwise. Apple consumer product took forever to get the mobile because it had to get to 2.5 billion devices.

11:45I think this is suddenly you say to yourself, now I know why they were losing so much darn money. And the glasses have a lot of different features. Now, unfortunately, they gave me a pair of glasses, and it said on the front of it, fly equals fly. I said, it could be a bad sign. It could be a bad sign for the glasses. One rough game. Let's wait until the coming weeks. How about exposed? The other point you make is that you know you're building something when you're hiring CEOs from other public companies to come run divisions of your company. Well, I mean, look, MongoDB is one of those companies.

12:21Everyone knows it's a survivor. I mean, I don't know whether situational, the wayward hedge fund would have, I think they would be betting against it, but MongoDB is a real company. A lot of people use it. A lot of people, a lot of businesses really like it. So suddenly you get a guy who just is enterprise. And now he is, oh, yeah, Dev. By the way, Dev's fabulous, okay? He's been on the show many times. And he's a calming force of what you need right now. But it is rather amazing, Dev. have CJ go over there, report to Mark, and you realize, oh, my God, it's not a consumer product. It's an enterprise product.

12:56That's what it is. Really quick, was Mongo overdone yesterday, you think? Well, I do think that it'll help to hear, Dev, but when you have someone quit that fast, even though it's for a good job, you question the credibility of the company. And I hate to say it because I think Dev's fantastic, but there's some credibility on the line. Do you have any expectations today, this White House meeting, of new wrinkles being introduced? Or is this sort of classic dog and pony? What's your view on it? I know what they should do. My friend Brad Gersher is there. He's one of the few. He's really the only business person there.

13:31I hope they talk about the accounts for people to invest in. But I know that. Brad wrote about that yesterday. Yeah, and I think Brad's really pretty amazing. But I think that this is, again, something that the president does particularly well, which is identify with, by the way, Elizabeth Warren will totally disagree with me on this, but identify with the people who are at the fundament of our discussions. And by the way, speaking of the fundament of our discussions, Squawk Box this morning, indispensable, wrapped, loud, loud, make it louder. Those are the three most important words in the business, make it louder.

14:08I had D.C. guys emailing me this morning, unsolicited, saying whoever booked squawk this morning needs to ask for a raise or a few days off. We don't talk enough about it. Yeah, we don't talk enough about the other shows. And Mike Johnson, Speaker Johnson, did address sort of this AI discussion and what might come of today. Take a listen. Does it come up? And there is a lot of federal law. Of course, products liability law applies here directly, and we're going to make sure that that keeps everybody in check. But I will say that each of them have said in their own ways, in their own words, that, you know, they welcome oversight.

14:43And I think what's going to come out of the meeting today, I hope, is that we have an agreement of the mind, so to speak, around the table. Meantime, Jim, the Pope criticizing, saying these fears are not fake news. The Florida AG, the Attorney General of Florida Republican, leaning on open AI pretty hard. I mean, Bill Gates with a constant stream of warnings. No, I mean, look, I was glad that Nikesh Arora was invited, Palo Alto Networks, but I think you have to have some balance in terms of more than just Jensen. Jensen's just out there. And, I mean, a lot of my friends when I was in Italy just said, you know, your friend Jensen.

15:19I said, oh, my friend. I gave up on the friend game a long time ago. Yeah, I mean, that was some people viewed it as self-serving. Well, you know, he runs a$5 trillion company. Is he supposed to say, you know what, anything they can do, I can't do better? Well, what's he supposed to say? That's a nice early Broadway reference. Take a look at the pre-market. A lot more to get to this morning. There's some news on Lilly. Obviously, we'll touch on AMD, Goldman. There's CarMax, SpaceX, and a lot more. Stay with us.

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17:36Aura announcing it has postponed its planned IPO, despite what it calls strong demand for its offering. The smart ringmaker citing uncertainty in the IPO market, and that decision comes after other companies, including Holtec Nuclear, SB Energy, also recently delayed plans to go public. Jim, is three a trend? What does this all mean? it's something you said yesterday, which is the number of stocks that are underperforming. We are 1.3 % from the Nasdaq's all-time high, and they're talking about market conditions. I mean, this is just a sign that people have eyes for certain companies. Now, I thought this is a profitable company,$2.2 billion, four times over subscribe.

18:18But they're just saying, you know, forget it. Now, they are profitable, so they don't have to do anything. But it's emblematic of This market has to get broader at a certain point. But we know from the 2023, when we had the Silicon Valley Bank, you can have six or seven stocks that can take you up because they're so big a market cap. And you take Aura and you say, wow, that shows you that maybe things are more delicate. But then you take the$230 billion in stock that NVIDIA is buying back, and it's like, that's a lot of companies. Yes. So let's not lose sight of the fact that you can have a few companies really take you higher.

18:53for a very long time until something good happens. If you read the Wall Street Journal, the Wall Street Journal is now writing very many articles about how the Iranians are close to cracking. I'm not reading that narrative anywhere else, but it is the Journal. I have to get serious. Yeah, I mean, we mentioned the Saudis, the exports are back basically the highest they've been. The Journal did write this piece on their leverage breaking down. The real is at a record low. It's like$2.5 million to the dollar. And look, there was a weird conclusion in the Journal article, which was they said, look, it's so bad for Iran that maybe they have to escalate.

19:26Maybe military. Yeah, that's the risk. But what it did say, and Ben Stoto works with me, obviously, the research director for me for Mad Money, said something really interesting. He says, boy, it has to do with the fact that we don't know who's running Iran. Like one guy, you know, one guy saying, hey, listen, we're in trouble. The other guy just said, I don't care, we're in trouble. And another guy says, listen, we hate the U.S. And another guy says, we can accommodate. Well, it's obvious they're not speaking with one voice. Yeah, I think dealing with a multi-headed Hydra was always the risk.

19:54We knew that going into the early days. Your point about breadth, though, is pretty good. Barron's today, five tech stocks, 93 % of the gain for the S &P since July. Adam Parker did a great chart of the percent of S &Pers that are beating the index over the past, I think it's 10 years. I mean, it's just a straight line down. Look, I mean, we know what the market has eyes for, and we know what it doesn't. And there are so many companies that we use to distribute. I like to use the company PepsiCo. PepsiCo, good company, good consumer company, long history of great leadership. Look at the stock.

20:28We've got a second downgrade today. Oh, there's the Parker chart. I mean, look, you have to pick individual stocks that do better and add them along with the index, or else you're just going to be brought down by the index. That's why you have to say to yourself, meta, eureka. consumer to enterprise Apple, Eureka the duo, going to be monstrous you can have two phone lines Google, wow, okay they are they can get Gemini right you're going to be, you know look, I just think that these companies maybe it's the manthropic they're the answer they're the answer to underperformance but we're so discouraged about picking individual stocks there's a piece this weekend I read It's like the public's idiots.

21:13They're still doing it. Now they're buying SpaceX. I don't know. I think SpaceX is interesting, but you got to go. Can you take it from your perspective? Why not? Yeah. We're going to get to some of the street commentary on SpaceX. We are going to move into quarter end tomorrow, and we got Micron as well. Want to get Jim's thoughts on that. We'll get his Matt Dash and countdown to the bell in about eight minutes.

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23:09Check out some gainers. Carnival is going to open up almost 11. We did get an upgrade of RCL yesterday out of B of A, but a lot of attention on some of these travel names that have been beaten down by high oil prices, Jim. Yeah, I mean, look, my favorite had been Viking and then happened to be over in Europe. And you know that the problem with Viking as a cruise line is because the water's so low everywhere. You know, you get a bus ticket at certain places, and I think it's a turnoff, even though I think Viking's great. Josh has been doing a great job. These stocks are loved on Wall Street because they represent inexpensive travel.

23:42Yeah, look forward to that conversation later on this morning. Opening bell. Value travel will get mad at me. Opening bell is coming up in a few moments.

23:54Let's get Kramer's Matt Dash as we count down to the bell. Here's an upgrade that I like. Caught my eye. Deutsche Bank upgrading Netflix from hold to buy. I was shocked to see that you've got a company selling it 18 times 20, 27 earnings that everybody likes. The first line is the market's obsession with U.S. time spent overlooks the largest total addressable market and healthier engagement. But we were all taught to look at time spent. That was something they said, listen, let's take a look at versus other things. And so we were directly one way. Now they're saying, don't look that way. International makes it too cheap.

24:26I like the coal. It does seem like when you get down here at that 16 times earnings, they're just better than that. How about that? Yeah, it's been kind of a battle on Netflix. We did have the downgrade the other day out of Wells. They do trim their target five bucks. I know. And look, I think every state will be our point. This coal is actually a standardized discovery. People just said they don't have it anymore. Well, maybe at this point you can say, you know what, let's just say that whatever happened happened, but they're doing better than this stock. Right. Current press. Let's get ready for the opening bell here.

25:03Interesting day at the Big Board on Wall Street. It's going to be Bloom Energy celebrating 25 years, the inclusion to the S &P 500, a new partnership with the Sixers. Jim, did you see their logo on LeBron's jersey? at Media Day. At the NASDAQ in Times Square, it's MongoDB hosting an investor day. We'll talk to the interim CEO in a bit. And it's Fibo in Chicago. It's financial services for Kinsey. It's hard for me. I do want to mention Broom Energy for a second because that's really been the preferred way to be able to, let's say, get it. Yeah. Companies are online quickly for power. And if you look at attention, you're always saying, listen, power, power, power.

25:47Well, can I say it's good to have a Philadelphia winner. I mean, this was a name that kind of outgrew the Russell, started to move the index because it was such a large component. Think about what they stuck with. Go back. I wish we had a chart for 25 years. This company never gave up. Most of the companies gave up. Just like him, never gave up. LeBron. Geez, I wish I weren't so interested in sports. There was this interesting piece, speaking of the build-out, Jim, in the FT about Nvidia, reaching out to insurers now to help cover the potential loss maybe of money in cloud deals or if they can't resell their chips to pay.

26:31I think that their record on something$100 billion investment has been terrific. But look, the market can be put full of, you know, you don't want to be caught in 2000. I thought there was a sign of not as worried about that was the increase of buyback. And the fact that it's not going to be intermittent buyback, it's going to be consistent buyback. I hope they're not using percentage of the volume. That's how you have a stupid buyback. I've run buybacks, and the best way to have a buyback is to be opportunistic. That's how Apple ran it. That's what Intel used to do it in the payday. So these guys have to pay attention to the stock, and then you're going to see the stock go higher.

27:07Do you think quarter-end is going to be a nice clearing event just from a positioning standpoint? Yeah, I keep thinking that people are saying that, look, the market wasn't horrible in September, so therefore maybe it's going to be horrible in October. I don't see a lot of excitement or people liking the market. We did have something going there during the SpaceX period. And it's funny, the SpaceX is a winner of the deal. But it just seems like now we're so bogged down about age agentics and the worry of agentics that Wall Street's become an enemy again. I find that Wall Street is just not in sync with the American people between data centers.

27:49Because you think Wall Street's been associated with AI, in a sense. Yeah, I really do. AI allegedly takes jobs. You'll see from Dean of Powell McCormick tonight, a good instance where they don't. Some people say it was cherry-picked. I don't think it was. There's a sense that Wall Street is cashing in on something that is going to wreck small towns, which I think is going to be the opposite, and going to create what Antropoc says, the existential crisis. Although, isn't it just a matter of time before enough small businesses can testify, yes, Meta has improved my business, or we start getting productivity-led disinflation?

28:27Even Lisa Cook said that yesterday. It's not going to come this year, she argues. No, but productivity is what news is about. And it's not about—I thought it was about individual productivity, But as Ben Thompson says, individual productivity doesn't mean people just don't sit there and think, oh, I want to be more productive. But small businesses say, all right, look, I've got to figure out what my taxes are. Here's my notes. As opposed to calling an accountant and waiting back and forth. Or, like, a lot of times a small business person is just trying to figure out, like, how they make ends meet.

28:57Maybe you can say, if I make this much on steak and I make this much on eggs, am I going to get beat because the price of beef is going out there? And that's a really hard calculation. You left used to it. Yeah, it is a way to just run scenarios that you haven't been able to before. Exactly. That's exactly what it's for, is running scenarios. How about Micron? What's on the line with Micron this week? You know, look, here expectations are high. Here, I think that, look, when I spent some time in Micron, obviously I was out there in Boise. There's no doubt that they're sold out for several years.

29:33You could argue they're sold out until the end of the decade. But I think the problem with Micron is it's a sentiment stop. And if oil goes up, it won't matter if it happens. It literally is that. If oil goes down, Micron prints a number that's good. I think you take out the top. You take out 12 to the top. Wow, you really are tracing everything back to oil, at least to the mole. You have to because oil is rates and rates of PE multiples. And the PE multiples is at 14 times for Micron, 8 times, 2 years out. You need that to go to 10 to get the stock to go to 1250. You can't do that unless interest rates go down.

30:10Yeah, we did get a nice chart. I think it's from the Journal on trucking rates, which were almost back to the cycle highs that we saw a couple of years ago. And I should mention the transports, they were down a full 20 percent from the 52-week high yesterday. Yeah, I remain steadfast that you want to own FedEx, but that's a share take from United Parcel. and some incredible work that Raj and Mamie has done. But when you look at that, a lot of this has passed through for diesel. You were so right to focus on diesel. Now it's$6.48. It was always diesel. It was always diesel because that's what America runs on when it comes to moving things from one to another that you buy.

30:54Now there's some chatter that maybe the hard choices on an export ban kind of get punted to the states. Texas is allowing, they call it dyed diesel, normally used in farm equipment, but you can maybe use that on the roads now, take some pressure off. These are all short-term things that I think just make things more difficult to figure out as a business person. You know, look, I would go to Muse and I'd say, all right, what do I do here? And maybe Muse is go buy a, you know, I don't know if you've ever driven diesel versus not diesel. Diesel is torque. Diesel is power. Yes, yes. Diesel is switch.

31:27Yeah. And is refined along with jet fuel and gas. That is the problem, is that if you were to ban the export, storage would fill up and then they would pull back on all of those things. Well, once again, I mean, when you look at the restaurant stocks, and there's a series of price target cuts we got this morning, look, a lot of this is just more expensive to get your stuff there. The McDonald's, Mayles, is very disconcerting, but that's part of the part and parcel of where we are. I use the word Mayles carefully because we could be getting, I know the president is going to really dislike this, but there was a president that got associated with Mayles, even though he never used to work.

32:03And the president was Jimmy Carter, and that was the failed presidency. McDonald's is lagging the S &P by, I think, close to the most it's ever lagged. McDonald's is a market. Unless you decide, like, listening to Dr. Oz this morning and Joe P. does. Dr. Oz, you know, he knows TV. Jim, as a former Goldman guy, I'm sure you're interested in this journal piece on John Waldron. Yeah, I thought that I would have started the article from the days when I used to write these articles. stop making it look like an obituary and start saying the man who's made four times your money for Goldman may eventually, because he wants to have a quarterly transition, give it over to Waldron, who has been always going to be poached by somebody because he's so terrific.

32:46Instead of saying, look, they mean. I mean, one of the things that boards do is discuss succession. Waldron is someone. I like these men both. And I am like Goldman. And look, Dean of Powell McCormick, another reason why I like Goldman. Yeah, the diaspora has always been powerful. And I just think that John's terrific. Dave is terrific. But I'm going to say it's a huge addition for my travel trust. And it's been a major winner. And how about this? Thank you. Thank you, Dave. You want to go and do something good? Whatever you want to do, you're doing good now. Yeah, I think we had a chart earlier this morning, the stock under Solomon's tenure, 308%.

33:19Yeah, hey, look, he was derided at the beginning. If you actually spent... I don't want to bore people with it. like an instance I had, but I had said something very critical about. And we were checking in one of these CEO councils, and I said, oh, my God, to my wife, Lisa. Oh, my God, it's David. It's David. And he chewed me, and he goes, Jim, Lisa. He's got me. Yes. That said, on the financials, I'm looking at, like, just the drawdown over the past month, almost 7%. You think that's long-lasting? This is one where at last these are coming in cold when they report their quarters, and their multiples are very ugly.

34:04But you do have that flat yield curve. Everyone's going to have to explain what they can do in a flat yield curve. I think they can still make a lot of money. Someone will say, no, you see, they're making money because once Muse comes in, you'll sweep your cash from one of their load producing to another. That's an example of what I think is not going to happen, because I don't want to send my money to the first bank of CanHop. Yes, some things are still sticky. But you're right about two tens, I think, are down to some 30 bips now. It's definitely flattening out. But look, we have had, I mean, Aura is, that's the IPO.

34:39And with the mergers, the war has hurt a lot of things. I mean, the war makes people feel like, darn, I bought it five and a quarter, now it's five and a half. But every day there's a new reason why you feel that you have tremendous buyers from Worsley. Unless you want the stock of the X, which is Meta. Yes. Or Intel. Or AMD. Or Valero. Yeah. I mean, there's Valero. Oh, my God. Yeah. You mentioned AMD, Jim. You want to explain what World Labs means for this company? And Fei-Fei Li is going to become chief scientist and EVP? Again, I mean, I think that's that physical AI that a lot of people talk about.

35:16You want to be in there. There's one thing I did a note about Lisa Sue last night, about how she's just always one step out of the policy. She came in against Intel. She's doing this thing. And this is really what you need to do if you want to strengthen your AI ecosystem. And I think that Lisa Sue's promising are much more competitive when they're benchmarking. I mean, NVIDIA is going to say, listen, our next one is always better, and they do have software. But, you know, you're not going to go wrong bringing in her GPUs, and you're certainly going to do right if you get her CPUs. Price feels right to you on this one?

35:51Yes. $8 billion in change? In stock. I like that. They'll stay. Look, the respect that you must give Lisa Sue with this incredible run to a trillion dollars, this is a good example of what she can do and knows what to buy. She's just money. Listen to the MIT address. You'll feel a lot better about AI. she's a very smart person. You know, when you have that master's doctor from MIT, I remember I took a course at MIT and it was like politics. My father said, yeah, that's where all the smart people are. How are you doing over there? My father always found a reason to find someone who's smarter than I am.

36:30Yeah, there's a whole building of people smart. Everybody's smarter than you. That's why I was rejected by slumberjack. She is Dr. Sue, that's true. Jim, on Consumer, you mentioned And Netflix, we got another downgrade of Pepsi today. JP Morgan goes to neutral, 138. I'm just looking at Walmart this morning, two down, almost three. 105 has kind of been support for most of the month. But here you go again. This is the shrinking multiple that I keep talking about. Walmart sells at 36 times earnings. And as great as Walmart is, you're not going to pay it when you know rates are going higher. These, in the end, are just all they are.

37:06Like when you study stocks, they're long-dated assets. and they're long-dated assets that are compared to the 30-year. And the 30-year is arguably, well, it's a competitive thing, and these things may not be able to have some terminal value that's as good as buying the 30-year. Yeah. I've been looking. There's some CDs that are out five years. You get 5.05. Because if you look at the on-the-run, you're going to get 4.6. And I'm thinking, wow, would compliance let me do a CD? I mean, nice to let me do a CD. I mean, that would be terrific. Let's ask HR. The checking account is great. Sweet me, Muse.

37:43But you think that's a nice fat pitch on the 30 then? I mean, assuming you're a retiree, you've had a nice 10 years in the market. You can put 25 % of your money in that. I think you'll do just well. I don't want to put more than that because it seems like we're destined as this board goes on to go higher. But when I see a stock like Walmart and I see 36 times earnings, no. I think it's one of the greatest companies on earth. But companies and stocks are two different things. And we don't speak enough about price turning bull. By the way, on Scott's show, they talk about it really consistently on Scott Wappershow.

38:19And you hear, like my old friend Stephanie Link, who worked with me, she'll say, look, Walmart's fantastic. I don't know if I was just picking this. I don't know how I was feeling at Walmart right now. Walmart's fantastic. 36 times earnings. Walmart's not fantastic. Yes. That said, we did get an upgrade of Kroger today. I was shocked. Out of Melius. Second time. And I thought Kroger's quarter was not that great. And then everyone has loved it ever since. Now, it's 11 times earnings, though. See, so Kroger's like, okay, 11 times earnings. That's not dangerous. They've got a two-year target, which was 75.

38:52They move it up to 80. They do see EPS growing nine next year, eight the next following year. I wish they were allowed to go back and make that deal. You think that was unfair? They should have been able to do it. I do. By the way, on Pepsi, I think Ramon LaGuardia is doing a good job. But it's a 15-times earnings. The thing that is absolutely incredible about PepsiCo is what he's come through. He's had to deal with chips, the cost, the diesel, the daily delivery. Everything's not going his way. Obviously, you have health issues. You've got GOP, that's one. And I thought at 4.6, it could bottom.

39:30And I was wrong. You know what's a great chart is Pepsi versus Coke. Oh, my God. For the year to date? Coca-Cola is not food. It's just some magic elixir. And they've done so many things right, small form factors. New CEO seems just as good as the last CEO. If you look at Coke versus Pepsi, you realize one's food and one's sugar black. I mean, we used to talk about sort of the optionality with beverage and snacks. PepsiCo had a higher price range multiple for years because Frito-Lay had unlimited growth. And now it's every person for himself in that potato chip business. What did you make of this Jonas note on self-driving today?

40:12Adam Jonas, who now just covers SpaceX, but for a long time covered Tesla. It's all he does is full self-driving on Tesla. I love him. I got him to autograph this last piece of regular research. I thought that was a brilliant piece today. Look, he's got the zeitgeist more than anybody. It's one of the reasons why I like Tesla so much. I know you're absolutely right, underperformed for the finest three years. You put these two together, and it's unassailable. Robots and self-driving are just incredible. And, again, I was in San Francisco recently. I don't know why I would take a regular cab. Jeez, Wayne was really serious.

40:46Yeah, I mean, he basically calls autonomous vehicles a road robot. And in his view, we've sort of unlocked now the challenge, and I think what he would argue, is his wife, for example. He can't convince her to use it the way he's using it. But that we're getting to a point where maybe, I don't know, it kind of reminds me of what Jensen said about not having to do long division. Maybe there'll be tasks that we just don't need to do. Ten years ago, I met Jensen. He said, Jim, the big issues are going to be robots and self-driving cars. I said, yeah, OK, sure. And then he showed me these dogs are eating jello cubes.

41:20And every time they lifted it right, he rewarded the dog. Yes. And next one was this continuous loop of black ice and how to stop it. I said, Jensen, look, you're so much smarter than I am. Just give me something to do here. And he is. And sometimes that's the difficult thing. It's when you're in the presence of someone like Jensen or like Elon Musk, who I've not been in the presence, only once at a dinner party and it went disastrously. They just think differently, and they have use cases that we haven't thought of. And I didn't know that self-drawn in a car would be the be-all and end-all until Jensen explained it to me, and I just didn't think it was possible.

41:56I thought the insurance companies wouldn't let it. You always talked about the black ice as an intractable problem. That's still a problem. For the machines? That's still a problem. I think the issue with black ice is you're never going to be able to solve the problem because nothing can see it. You can't see it. You can't see it as a driver. I don't know if anyone's ever had the problem with black ice like I did once. I had no idea that I was about to slam into a mailbox because I didn't see it. You can't see it. You can't see it. You can't see it. Stay off the roads. Yeah, it is amazing how progress happens little by little.

42:32And then suddenly it seems all at once. Yeah, we're definitely watching that in mobility. Kind of a mixed open here. S &P's down about three Dow down 72. We'll get some data today. Joltz is coming up in about 15 minutes. We'll get some conference board. There's a ton of Fed speak. Bowman, Goolsby, Musalm, Williams, Waller this afternoon. and some relief in yields more or less, although maybe a bit of a turn. Tenure is really stubborn. Yeah, there you go. Once again, re-approaching 527 as we got yesterday. Stay with us.

43:21down down 55 here his rates are a little bit stubborn we were talking about goldman during the D block. The appreciation of Goldman shares under Solomon is not 308. As our data suggested, it's actually more like 400. 400%. 220 to 920. Again, you know, we do the, look who knows if they're good. I mean, I've been on boards and it's like, okay, what do we have to say about succession? Oh, we got a lot of good people on that. Okay, next. You have to do it. It's part of your job. It is. We've seen what happens when it doesn't go well. That kind of planning. Oh, yes, that's true. John Walter, yeah, he'd be CEO of anybody.

44:03But I mean, look at some of the other people. Important, important bit of news out of the journal today. As we said, softness here. We'll watch the 10 year yield transports with a little bit of action. VIX near 16. Stay with us.

44:19we have 200 million small business owners on our platform at meta 200 million and that really means we have connectivity uh with so many of these small business owners that are now going from using our products to operate them to advertise uh their their goods on them on the platform but now to actually have muse for small business hustle and work for them every day Dean Powell-McCormick of Meta going to be your guest tonight on Magic. It's enterprise, and enterprise is sticky and consumer, we think, is just, eh. Look, I've always loved this company from the day, came public, but, you know, Mark, I spent some time with Mark, and I just said, look, man, you've got to do small business.

45:02And he always said, yeah, well, hey, that's great. I don't want to take any equipment. But this has been a focus for him, and he's got the number one small business person, and she doesn't come in idly. Yes, her husband is indeed the senator from Pennsylvania. What matters is that she understands 10 ,000 women, 10 ,000 small businesses. She was at Goldman. She's the number one person to recognize how to do this. And then you've got, you have a picture. Yes. Now, CJ Desai just moved over to report on the business side. This is about a business productivity tool. It's the first thing I've heard, which says, you know what?

45:35I've now saved enough money, I can add workers. And it's a different narrative entirely than when we've become convinced, which is that you're going to ruin employment. Right. So whether or not there are enough glasses or muse charms for the holiday retail season, that's not as interesting to you. No, because those people don't pay. I mean, unless you're real heavy users, they just don't pay. Maybe Mark would like it so that you decide to do a business after you're a consumer. But no, the consumer is going to do well. But it's not about it. It's about the enterprise. and let's not make, let's no mince worse.

46:08Enterprise gives you a higher price. Look forward to that tonight, Jim. I do feel bad about David Sog. He's like healthy, he's terrific. I don't like, darn it, I wish. Something's come up and you just, I'll leave it that he knew my wife's name and I felt like an idiot. But yeah, I want everyone to watch this interview because you realize why I think MEDA can go dramatically higher. Yeah, I can't miss it. Tonight, 6 p.m., MEDMoney with Jim. We will get jolts and conference board after a short break.

46:42You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

47:11Thank you.

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