9AM HOUR: Stocks Rally and Yields Fall on Jobs Report, Tesla Delivers, Nike Tumbles 10/2/26

0:11Hey,

0:28Fidelity. How can I remember to invest every month? With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investments in stocks and ETFs. Oh, that sounds easier than I thought. You got this. Yeah, I do. Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC, member NYSE SIPC. It's Jim Cramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action.

1:11Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Cantineo with Jim Cramer at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber has the morning off. Score one for the Doves. Futures jump on the softest jobs number since July. 29 ,000, roughly a third of the estimate, with negative revisions and the weakest annual wage growth in more than five years. Yields are down, 10-year 518, small caps rally, oils below 90 as the EU considers releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel emergency reserves. Our roadmap begins with that September job surprise, though, coming in weaker than expected, unemployment up a tick.

1:47Just what might it mean for the Fed's rate policy path? Then there's Nike tumbling ahead of the open after delivering a weak revenue outlook, announcing some layoff plans, and shares of NVIDIA with a bid today. Morgan Stanley reaffirms it as a top AI chip pick. Let's begin, though, with market reaction to the jobs number here, Jim, as we work our way through some of the internals. Revisions were no good. This 3.0 annual wage growth, three-month annualized is 2.6. That's what I really focused on because we all know that there's terrible inflation. So that's a group of people I think are feeling disenfranchised in America today.

2:22If they go anywhere, a restaurant, they go out to a grocery store. And I thought that was seminal. From the point of view of the market today, obviously, it's what bonds want. And bonds want crude down. If the president just doesn't talk today, just to say he plays a lot of golf, I mean, big golf, I don't know. I mean, like golf, golf, golf, then oil is going to go down more. And I think that you're going to have the possibility of a real rally because, yes, indeed, Nike was not good. And we've got some negative news, theoretically, on Seagate, which is going to send that stock down. Yes, we'll get to some of these headlines regarding capacity and disk drives, yes.

3:05But otherwise, I mean, we're kind of a vacuum of stocks. And if the only one is Nike, then you're OK, because Nike seems very, as we learned at law school, sui generis. It is unto itself. And it was, unfortunately, a very tough college school. Yes. Very tough. We're going to get to actually a lot of retail. But you had come into the quarter a couple days ago saying, watch out if you're short treasuries. Well, yesterday there was this on-the-run piece of paper, a five-year piece of paper that was five. And, yeah, I told my assistant, I said, look, I don't care what happens. I need that piece of paper.

3:41Like it was like, you know, buying Micron at 900. I said, I don't want to screw. I need that piece of paper. She's like, what a piece of paper. What are you talking about? I said, it's the Wynn issue. I don't know about the Wynn. I mean, there was tumult in the bond market for people who saw that piece of paper and said, you know what? That's a darn good piece of paper. First time. Well, the front pages of all the papers today obviously came out before the jobs number are all about government debt. The Journal today adding fuel to the global bond selloff. FT talks about a vicious loop in the U.S.

4:11as yields go up, our expense interest goes up. Well, that's kind of when you should be buying some, when you hear that negative stuff. Look, I'm not trying to buy the French market. I'm buying a very—I know. Wolf had a really good piece on that. What I'm just saying is that you buy bonds differently from where you buy stocks. You buy some here, and then maybe you have to get five and a half, then you get six. But if you're sitting there trying to figure out whether they're going to be eroded by inflation, may I say that in a five-year period, you're not going to have Zimbabwe. You're just not.

4:42So odds of a Fed pause go to 85 today for October. Does that mean? Is it safe to nibble at small caps or home builders or utilities? I think that utilities are the constellation, but that's nuclear. The mortgage rate's bad. It hasn't come down yet. We have to see that come down. It hasn't come down yet. So it's going to be another bad week that you see. So I don't want to do that. But I can make a case that maybe some of the higher-yielding stocks that are not utilities, that are not in trouble, might be good. I mean, obviously, it's going to be Coca-Cola and J &J. I know that's really boring, but you've got to have these really good balance sheets with decent dividends.

5:24And J &J was crushed yesterday. This is a good opportunity to buy some J &J. Yeah. You mentioned Europe. We did get CPI out of the Eurozone. It was 3.2. It's now 3.8. and that French-German spread, Jim, that's now 150 basis points. Yeah, I mean, is France really in that level of disarray? I mean, when you read over there, it does think they almost make it. Almost everything is related to a period that I hate to ever bring up, because I think you just don't analogize to the 30s. But France does, you know, obviously that market is the most, I think it's the most liquid. There's a lot of foreign money that's pulling out.

6:00Yeah. Now we've got this tussle between us and the EU. We've been leaning on them to release some diesel reserves. They're offering or they're going to talk about offering some. Just the talk of it is what I think is moving the oil market down. Also, the Saudis, the Saudis cross-country pipeline capacity is now 80 percent back to capacity. Yeah, I mean, look, I think that we're looking at, I think we're, the reason I was talking being facetious about the president, Ghal. But as long as we're around 999, there's a belief that we could have some sort of calamity. Because that's like the premium.

6:38That's like you're this thing is actually like a put. I mean, we expect anything to go to 110. But if there's no news, then people feel no news is good news and no news, good news. We revert to what you're talking about, which is obviously oil is too high on the supply and demand basis. We got Iran with basically no loadings accrued in the month of September. Although the president, this journal piece yesterday, a third aircraft strike group headed their way. 10 ,000 troops. 10 ,000 troops. Look, if you're headed your way, look, we are America. We are a powerful country. I mean, every time we ever seem to do anything, people laugh at us when it comes to military.

7:20That's quite wrong. It's political. It's a political lack of will. It's not our military. Military is fantastic. But I would say and point out, importantly, that we're one for one. Oil goes down, interest rates go down, stock market flies. And there's nothing new other than Nike that would make me feel like, wow. Because next week is a really peculiar week. I've been trying to work game next week. There's nothing. There's no earnings. There's no CEOs talking. I mean, I'm like, I'm trying to figure out exactly who I can conjure. I'm going to try to get some of these, maybe get some of these giants that are ringing the bell.

8:01Maybe I can get over there and see what they're buying. There really is nothing next week. Yeah, we'll get Amazon Prime Day for a couple days, and we'll maybe get the WBD closing Peace Guy. Well, I saw that Amazon Prime, they're offering$8 billion worth of NVIDIA chips. Is that on Amazon Prime? That's a trade to make NVIDIA. And it's not a thing of dumping NVIDIA so much as making it asset light. It's a sale leaseback. It's an important trade because it does show that there is a deeper market of NVIDIA chips. That's the Amazon offering of 8 billion chips. So that, yeah, it's interesting. Yesterday, Reuters does a piece saying the value of those chips is getting question.

8:39There's a gut check at NVIDIA about the long-term value of its ability to finance their chips. And then today, Barron says actually it's a great backdrop, the value of those. Look, we have an arbiter on this. His name is Michael Entrader in Corweave. And you could say, oh, come on, he's on the take because NVIDIA has a position. Michael Entrader, especially when I first met him, he was talking about how these people say these have a three-year life. And actually, he thinks they have a seven-year life. It turns out they have an even longer life. So I think that I'd rather go with a guy who has been probably more involved with the pricing of NVIDIA than I would Reuters.

9:18Meantime, I think you're pretty happy with this Morgan Stanley reinstating NVIDIA as a top pick. I just thought it was a fantastic piece, because what it really says is that they had spent— the key line in it is that they spent a lot of time with—they spent time with CollectCress. But I see CollectCress, I immediately think, okay, that's the buyback. Could be very, very good. Diversity of customer base. Look, Tashia Harry, the IR, used to be at Goldman. Fantastic. This investor meeting is in New York City and Boston. These are meetings, by the way, that they take incredibly seriously. I caught them once between New York and Boston.

9:57They have a real rap. And the fact that Morgan Stanley obviously has gotten the rap, and it's a very positive rap, made them really change their mind. Joseph Moore is a very powerful analyst. So what you should be thinking about is can they take out the double top? Can they take out the 236? Because what's really made a lot of the chartists very nervous about NVIDIA is it's not been able to break out of the double top. This is a really important day, a gut-check day for NVIDIA. I like this line. There isn't enough power to do what everyone wants to do, and there are more semis being built than there are places to put them.

10:31This is not true for NVIDIA. Well, I think there you have to look at what Musk did. I mean, Musk just had been a tremendous buyer of NVIDIA chips. And now, look what he talked about. He posted Colossus 1, 150 ,000 K H100, 50 ,000 H200. These were all NVIDIA. 30 ,000 Grace Blackwell. Colossus 2 is 110 ,000 Grace Blackwell 200. 440 ,000 Grace Blackwell 300. And another 220 ,000 Grace Blackwell 300 will be fully operational. This is a man who understands that compute is the most precious asset in the world. And he's going to make a fortune on this. And that's why I keep saying, look out. It's not a sucker's game anymore to buy as much as you want.

11:16It's a brilliant game. And there's no one smarter, I think, than Elon Musk when it comes to NVIDIA. And by the way, there have been times when he's tussled and said, listen, NVIDIA is too expensive. Well, he is completely capítulo. He's an NVIDIA house. And there's nobody better than he is. This is true. And speaking of Musk, we are getting some Tesla delivery numbers this morning. For that, we'll turn to Dom Chu. Hey, Dom. Good morning, Carl. Good morning, Jim. So right now, those Tesla Q3 delivery numbers coming in at 486 ,532 in July to September period. That did top analyst estimates for roughly 457 ,000.

11:52Tesla said it exited the second quarter with the largest order backlog going back to 2023. So the number specifically, 486 ,532, that beats the delivery number from last quarter, which is 480 ,000 and change. And it topped consensus estimates from both Tesla-provided consensus and the fact-set consensus as well. We are watching those shares currently up about just north of 2%. And currently, again, the narrative is shifting around maybe analysts on consensus. Just to give you some context, Carl and Jim, the consensus right now is a 376 target price per fact set, which is a 6 percent upside move from current levels.

12:33And just around 44 percent of analysts have a buy rating and 46 percent have a hold. So that's how all of this sets up, given the backdrop of that queue through delivery number. Carl, I'll send things back over to you. Well, look, it's good to see that when gasoline goes up a lot, people think that maybe it's a bargain to get electric. Rick, I also think, remember I say buy Tesla because I think SpaceX is great. By the way, SpaceX, I should have mentioned, when I was quoting those Colossus, that's SpaceX lending and charging people for compute. Yes. They have more compute. So you've got the SpaceX could, I think, could have an explosion in earnings.

13:11And it would be a terrific move to buy Tesla when that happens. That's a good number on Tesla. It's still, I mean, essentially what BYD did in a single month. I know. So, yeah, I mean, I looked at BYD last week in Italy, and, you know, I mean, that looks like a$60 ,000 car. I mean, what can I say? Obviously, the suicidal nature of Europe is incredible. Yeah. And then, of course, we got GM yesterday, Jim, where EVs, I think, were down by half. I mean, were the tough comps ahead of that tax credit expiration? Yeah. I mean, but look, you look at Ford's price, you look at Stellantis, you look at GM.

13:50For me to question any number that GM puts out is wrong. They're really, Mary Barra is not promotional. I'm promotional for Mary Barra. She's remarkable. Take a look at the pre-market here. Obviously, a lot of cross-currents this morning as we work our way through the macro and that disappointing jobs number. Although the Fed story after Waller, after Jefferson, after Bowman, and now after this is giving equities a sigh of relief. Absolutely. Squawk on the streets back in a minute. Legacy Credit Scores only look at a brief snapshot in time, and that limited view often leaves millions of qualified credit seekers out of the picture.

14:29Vantage Score is changing that by modernizing credit scoring. Vantage Score uses 400 % more credit and alternative data to create a fuller picture of financial behavior, including trended credit data, rental payments, and timely utility payments. Vantage Score safely broadens access to the credit economy and brings 5 million mortgage-ready borrowers into the market. That's why top lenders like Rocket Mortgage, as well as nine of the top 10 banks, rely on VantageScore 4.0. With higher predictability and greater access to credit, everybody wins. Get started at VantageScore.com. Ever notice how every new AI tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again?

15:09Google Workspace with Gemini skips that. You get Google's AI built right into the premium versions of Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more. No new tools. No extra logins. Just one subscription that gives you personalized AI right inside your actual workflow. Make work less work. Try Google Workspace with Gemini at goo.gle slash workspace with Gemini. Building a portfolio with Fidelity Basket portfolios is kind of like making a sandwich. It's as simple as picking your stocks and ETFs. sort of like your meats and other topics, and managing it as one big juicy investment. Now that's pretty good. Learn more at fidelity.com slash baskets.

15:55Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokers Services, LLC. Member NYSC SIPC.

16:04Nike shares down sharply in the pre-market. The company issuing weaker than expected guidance, posting a fiscal Q1 revenue miss, China down 26. Nike also announcing plans to cut additional jobs as part of a deeper restructuring. This is Elliott Hill talking about that turnaround plan on the call yesterday. Our Nike performance business is not yet large enough to offset the pressure we're seeing in Nike Sportswear, Jordan brand, and greater China. We're taking deliberate actions to strengthen those businesses, but realizing the full benefit of those efforts will take time. I would characterize that our comeback is ongoing.

16:45At our size and scale, meaningful change takes time. Our turnaround is happening. One sport, one sport community, one city, one country at a time. And we are reallocating resources against our biggest opportunities. So we're building for the long term. At least a dozen price target cuts, Jim. BFA goes to 24. Yeah, this was a very tough call where it got to the point at the end where there was a question about the dividend. Now, I will say that Mr. Denton, the CFO, said, look, take that off the table. It's a significant product from its capital allocation strategy. The payout ratio is 72 percent.

17:25But he says, just we can put that to bed with that statement. And that was the most positive thing I heard, was that the dividend won't be cut. You also pointed out that inventories were down a bit. Yes, inventories are a little bit better, but there's just so many things that are wrong. The greater China, you've mentioned, down 26 percent. That's just shocking. And it's just not going away. I mean, you want another share? It's 27 percent five years ago. Now it's 16 percent. That's their China share? That's a 40 % decline in their share in China in five years. I mean, it's extraordinary. The Jordan brand, which is pristine, by Elliott's own admission, they oversupplied the iconic retro brand.

18:06They created a tremendous decline in something that was worth a great deal. Sportswear, revenue down low double digits. That's half of first quarter revenue. I mean, it's huge. Dunk revenue cut 50%. I don't really like the dunk. But what I would say is this is a there's no playoffs for these guys. It is a tough one. I really like Elliott. I think he's great. He did bring in a CFO from Pfizer. You know, he has to take because Pfizer did keep the dividend. But when he came in, the stock was at 48. And when he departed, it was at 27. So I don't know if I really wanted a good, let's say, pill and vaccine.

18:46What do you want to say? I got a Pfizer guy to run Nike. I know the CFO. I know. No, I would have done I would have hired Phil Simms over here. Phil, can you know how to do the CF? We can be CFO of Nike there. He's a sports guy. Phil Simms knows. Carl knows. Come on over here. Come on. Carl knows. Carl knows sports better than that. He knows business. Are we allowed to do this or is this something I'm not allowed to do? Why not? It's Friday. Am I allowed to do it? Phil Simms and the 86 Giants are in the house this morning. They're signing the book. They're going to ring the bell. Jim's going to put his Eagles hat on.

19:19Yes, buddy. How are you doing? This guy, there is no one. This is, I mean, maybe Merle Reese, you know that. But this guy knows business better than anyone, and he's a true gent, and I can't believe I'm seeing you in the flesh. It is so good to see you. Congratulations. Eagles are going down here. Well, look, you know football better than I do. How about that? Nobody better than Carl. It is a fun morning down here, Jim, as we watch them get set to sign the book, and we'll see them on the podium in a couple of minutes. It's exciting. That 86 team. I mean, I was asking people, I mean, there's not a, you have to be, anyone who's younger than 41 may not know them, but this was a team that if you watched them, you respected them.

19:59And Bill Parcells, No Medals for Trying, one of the greatest books in the world about that period. And these guys are incredible. Yeah, legends. Legends. Jim, we'll get further into Nike, what it might mean for retail in the next block. We'll take a break here. We'll get Kramer's mad dash. Countdown to the opening bell. Don't go anywhere. Ever notice how every new AI tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again? Google Workspace with Gemini skips that. You get Google's AI built right into the premium versions of Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more. No new tools, no extra logins. Just one subscription that gives you personalized AI right inside your actual workflow.

20:42Make work less work. Try Google Workspace with Gemini at go.gle slash workspace with Gemini. Weren't agents supposed to take things off your plate? Building another to handle the others is a bit much. Don't make more work out of work. Gemini is the one agent that knows all parts of your business and actually gets stuff done. You give it a project, close your laptop, and when you come back, the job's finished. No matter your industry or role, your agent has the skills to help every team stay in their flow. Seriously, make work less work with Gemini on Google Cloud. Check response, subscription required.

21:17This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab, provides an information-packed daily market preview on stock updates, U.S. and global economic news, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Let's get Kramer's Matt Dash as we count down to the bell. All right, so Carl, one of the things that happens is that when you start talking about the different storage sections of the market, people tend to confuse things.

21:59This morning, Toshiba did an HDD production capacity. They've announced it. It's not they're going to double what they make. And the two that are impacted are the two HED companies, Seagate and Western Digital in our country. They make the same product. So there's a high direct impact. They compete. Micron, very low indirect impact. Very little Micron, very little SanDisk, low SK Hynix, which is why SK Hynix is now up, and Samsung low and indirect. So those who are selling Micron on this, this is like selling, you see a lot of sedans coming from Ford, so you sell your F-150 truck. It is not analogous.

22:38Now, Western Dig is up almost 200 % for the year, Seagate up more than that. Look, I think that there's going to be profit taking, but I think the pricing is going to be maintained because the demand is so high. These are companies, by the way, that have not added the capacity that a lot of people would have liked. And they've been very strict about it and very disciplined about pricing versus when I owned 5 % of Western Digital, I got crushed. I do remember that story. That's almost as famous as you sleeping in your car. Well, I slept in my car, but that was, I was a chick magnet during that period, by the way.

23:11Now people probably aren't allowed to say that, but back then you were. Speaking of Micron, did you hear Ben Wrights this with us yesterday? Yes. With his$2 ,000 plus target. I think Ben has a beat on Micron, like very few people. He's been right the whole way, so I think he is going to be right again. He's a believer in your buyback thesis. December 9th, the day after that buyback, the day he'll announce, Sanjay, I hope, will come on the show, Sanjay Morocha, the CEO, announce the buyback. And I think it can be bigger than any other buyback ever, including NVIDIA. Including NVIDIA. Including NVIDIA.

23:44As a percentage of the market cap? They can buy back. I don't know. He's using, what, 5 % to 8%. I think he's low-balling on that. I think that it could be as much as 10 % over time. And they're building this giant project near Syracuse in New York, so they can't just run the table and also do that. This is all related to the CHIPS Act. Right, but I have to tell you that when it comes to the non-cyclical nature of Micron, I've never seen anything like it. We sat down at lunch, and I said, Sanjay, you're no longer a cyclical company. You're a secular growth company. And his first reaction was, yeah, we're the six multiple.

24:19It doesn't make sense. This is secular growth. The only one I've seen that's ever done like this is Nucor. Nucor was cyclical steel company, and then suddenly we cut off the dumping, and they went into a lot of different brands of steel, and it went like this. If people look at Nucor, you're going to see micro. It's a cyclical gold incentive. Interesting analog. Definitely, we'll wait until December. We're not going to get much until then, it sounds like. The other one that's like that, I think Meta's going cyclical in the second year because it's not just dependent on advertising. It's now like the news is coming out.

24:50We're definitely in a moment, a long-term moment in the economy. Let's get the opening bell here at the Big Board on Wall Street. It is the New York Giants celebrating the 40th anniversary of their 1986 Super Bowl championship season. There's Phil Simms, Harry Carson, Carl Banks, among those on the podium. What a team. What can I say? At the NASDAQ in Times Square. Blue Rock Acquisition Corp 2. It's a SPAC sponsored by Blue Rock celebrating the recent IPO. And at SIBO in Chicago, it's the president of the Aurora University. members of the Aurora University Investment Club. Remind us of your ties to the Giants.

25:29Okay, I had a show with Larry Cutler for years, and on Fridays I would tell Larry, you know, take some time off, and Carl Banks would be my co-host. He also had been the spokesperson for G3, and we would talk about the line and what it means and what it means towards stocks, and he's very fluent in business, very fluent in stocks, very fluent in the line. So I learned a tremendous amount, And I also learned that what a really amazing person someone can be. A lot of people don't understand that you can be the best in sports and also the best. I think that Brady is making that kind of move. So I just respect Carl so much.

26:11I had him on as a guest and, Carl, you've got to come on and be my co-host. And he said I would be delighted. I know my father was appalled initially. And he said, I don't know, we've got to rethink this. This band is just extraordinary. He is extraordinary. He's brilliant. Anyone in the booth knows that he's willing to be critical. He can do that because he does not play for dinner. Yes. Jim here at the Open, hanging above 7 ,700. So how do you frame it? Do you turn to rate-sensitive sectors? Do you avoid consumer? After this print this morning? It's a great question because, I mean, is this suddenly a Walmart market?

26:47I mean, maybe you can do that at Costco market where you want to be able to buy something where people go to the store. Or do you just say, OK, well, this is the beginning of the law, but we need to have more things like Paramount Warner Brothers, where you have something new in the S &P. I would try to be as surgical as possible. And the reason I mentioned Walmart is it's down huge, and that might be something. You could say that you still don't have wage growth, but you have employment growth. That means Walmart. And I think the stock is down a great deal. That's interesting. Or you just say buy Micron and you just get away from it.

27:23Is it that simple? Yeah, it is. Because the Micron quarter, despite how people sold the stock and despite the fact that you can't get Sanjay Barocha to be promotional at all. And I've done that. I've really tried. Like Sanjay, I said, give me the high sign. I'd be able to memory. No. Well, no, but I really want to talk to you. No. Meaning he would not back us if I said it on air. And that is why when you do your homework and you get that call saying don't do it, you don't do it. Sanchez is terrific. What about they got the Russell up more than a full percent? Well, look, those stocks have just been crushed.

27:58Jeez, you know, when I watch Scott, when I watch the judge, I mean, everyone just points out these stocks have just been annihilated. There's some good ones in there. But I've always found if you want to do Russell 2000, you've got to do the index because they're so hard to get in and out of. There were a couple notes yesterday. I'm thinking of one out of Citadel calling Q4 a bit of a reload. October, November are good months in midterm years. Retail cooled off. Leverage cooled off. Of course, we know what Citadel, the role they played in some leverage coming off. They know a great deal now. I know, obviously, we have Michael Hartnett out with a piece that I thought was more tap-in.

28:35Hartnett's point is that dollar strength is telling you something. Yeah, that you have to wait for the dollar. I said, geez, you know, look, I think he's so smart. You want to calibrate and put that in. But I think that there might be people who say, listen, this is a J.P. Morgan. You can be a J.P. Morgan because it's come down so much that it's a very inexpensive stock. How about Goldman down a full 20 % from the highs? My travel trust owns Goldman, and we recommended buying the stock. And it's so far wrong. So far been wrong. Maybe today it changes. But why not go back to tried and true? Why not go to NVIDIA and go to Micron?

29:06Because they're enterprise, and the stocks are going in the right direction, and the pricing is really good. Yeah, we'll see what happens with financials here. Of course, they'll be first out of the gate on earnings. And commentary will be good on the curve flattening, on the AI build-out, on the IPO pipeline. They're really at the center of all kinds of interesting conversations. No, there aren't. I thought it was very interesting to look at the employment report, breakdown of jobs. You still don't see the data center as being a great vacuum of people who have trades and skills. I wonder sometimes whether that's because there's like nil actual construction when it comes to commercial in this country.

29:47So the commercial guys' business is terrible, but the websites, the data centers are very, very strong. I think that if you feel that way, you could buy a Birded or you could buy a GE Vernova, which my trusted can buy. You think those have come in enough? You probably think more than enough. Yes. I think that those, you can buy a lot of, look, Again, there are going to be people who are hanging right now on NVIDIA, and it's literally like hold people who are against it and want to hold it to 236 level. And I'm not going to say that it can get through that yet. Obviously, we've got a long day ahead, but NVIDIA is the safest thing to do.

30:25Gee, Vernova's made a nice move. I happen to like stocks that have nothing to do with the scrum that's going on, but they have to have earnings. I get a lot of calls on mad money for companies that don't have earnings, that people want Oplo. And it's like, no, those will peak October 15 to 16. That was like the end of nuclear. You can't go there. You have to go with companies that have earnings because with interest rates so high, you have what's known as a discounted cash flow, which makes it so if you don't have earnings, people, or if the earnings are in decline, people don't want it. In other words, don't buy Nike.

30:58Nike is the worst down name at the moment. Bespoke had a tough graphic yesterday. You know, they've missed on earnings reactions nine out of 12 quarters. I think we had it built where they turned the swoosh literally upside down. It's so hard. I mean, Elliott is trying so hard. And speaking about Elliott Hill, he really is. And I'm not denigrating his work. I'm saying that that category, I mean, if you're running Lulu, I mean, this is this casual. You have Adidas coming on. They've taken a lot of share lately. You've got, when they, did they wreck Jordan? I don't know. Yeah, Jordan and China are the two.

31:38I mean, North America was up, too. It wasn't a disaster. No, North America and North America, I really thought, was going to make a big comeback. They've got a November analyst meeting. And that's, they have this pace program. They have to show some results or people are going to say, you know what, this is not the crew we need. And it would be incredible because Elliott has been so successful at the company. I didn't want to see Matthew Friendly, the CFO. Again, I don't want to replace him with someone from Pfizer because I don't really see the synergy there. IPO activity or rumblings. We got On and Synaptics.

32:18And then the Mattel Authentic Brands chatter yesterday. Yeah, no, Authentic Brands, that made a lot of sense to me because Authentic Brands just, Jamie Salter. Now, Jamie, I don't know whether it would really be great to hear from Sarah, but she had a better relationship with Jamie and I. I went to Simbo with her once. And with David Simon, the late David Simon from Simon property, who was so great, but we went to a party to watch David Solomon spin records. And I said, I don't know about you guys, I'm buying Solomon. It was a pretty good call. Yes, yes. He's quite adept behind the deck. And then, like, what's the synaptics?

32:56$123 a share in cash. So we got a little activity there. I thought that was incredible. I mean, do you know that I'm going to be really a player with an open hand? I go over the bookings, and I said, you know what? I don't know if I want to put it on synaptics because I don't think people understand it. And that was a bad judgment by me. I mean, I shouldn't have thought like that. On Semis, a good company, too. Look, I like the Semis very much here. I think you can buy the Semis. We'll get favor back next week, just in time for Peace Guy WBD to close. Yeah, I mean, look at the bond market. Look, the junk bond market is junk.

33:35I mean, I just think when you have treasuries that are such a good opportunity for anybody, even for younger people. Yeah, a lot of their reporting yesterday about angry investors as those bonds began to trade, especially the junks. Yeah. And the difference between the early book and the later book, allocations were more than expected on some. We were talking about that ahead of time with Ben Stoto and Jeff Marks. And we both said, we've got to speak to David. You don't just come in. You've got favor coming back. And this one has to hold because, man, does he ever understand. Although, so WBD will leave the S &P.

34:13Twilio will take its place. And then on the NDX, Moderna is going to take its place. You know, Twilio, I thought, was going to be actually, and I've learned to code Twilio, I thought that was going to be easily disrupted by Claude. I still feel, but anyway, everything that people felt that was going to happen didn't happen. So, you know, Moderna, I'm getting, you're going to find results in three and a half weeks about how good the shot is for melanoma. I follow this one very closely. I play with an open hand. My daughter had melanoma, and she had the surgery and got rid of it. But, you know, we're all hopeful.

34:51We're all hopeful. And I keep checking with the oncologist what will be the data. We don't have the data yet, but people are very, very hopeful. It could be 150 ,000 people to take the shot. And it might name a price, okay? Tell me what price. I don't care. Yeah. Moderna has been an amazing winner, one of the best S &P years of the year behind SanDisk, but right up there with Dell, Micron, Bloom Energy. Well, it turned out that they did. When I met Stefan Banceli, he said he could have a personalized cancer vaccine. And then he was in the wilderness for a long time. They had COVID. And then he stopped talking to me because I said that I didn't know if he could do it.

35:25And that's OK. You can must stop talking to me. Not everybody talks to me. Hey, you know what? I mean, that's OK. Nice, nice turn here, Jim. The coach of the Eagles won't talk to me. What? Coach of the Eagles. I tried to see him. He wouldn't talk to me. It was very terrible. Did you see the exchange between Aaron Rodgers and McCarthy on the sidelines? That's how bad. Nice little turn here in industrials, Jim, up a full percent along with IT. You know, when you look at the industrials, you have to divide between data center industrials. And there I always like to look at Eaton. That's the one that does electrification.

35:57And against that, I like to look at Nucor, which has some data center but really not known as a data center. And they're both good, which is really excellent. But the industrials, oddly, are just totally responding to interest rates, not the idea that there is a slowdown in the economy. You want one that I really like very much is Lindy. The stock's been straight down, straight down, 548 all the way down to 460. And here we are, stock up 8 after an analyst day. There's plenty of industrials to buy, if you like plenty. In safe aerospace, we still have the FAA ruling on Boeing that we haven't gotten yet, even though Boeing, the engineers voted to not strike.

36:45Yes, yes. That was very important. Crisis averted there. Yes, totally. But this is a market where you can do industrials. Like I said, I really want to buy anything that caters to the consumer that's not expensive. That's not expensive. That's not expensive. From a share standpoint. Yeah. I mean, look, we're not going to get huge multiple expansion, but we're going to get some. I mean, I'll give you an example. Walmart traded, when it traded in the mid-40s multiple expansion, that was way too high. But now I think it's come back enough that you want to buy it. This thing's been annihilated. Hey, you know, you can buy, I mean, it's$0.36, I know.

37:21I guess the better one is Target. I think Target's going to have a very good quarter. I thought you were going to say maybe something like a TJX, a name that we used to praise all the time. Okay, I just bought TJX for the trust, and I didn't want to hype my position. Yeah, I just bought it. Literally, I have some, but I just bought more. And I'm not trying to talk my book, but if you look at the stock, I mean, it's been hideous. Last quarter was just—I'm going to use a word for that last quarter. Bad. Yeah, yeah. It was bad. I talked to all my—bad. I even went to this place for like five times to see if anybody still had the underwear for$9.

37:54But the problem with TJX was that it was actual the TJ Maxx. It was a disaster. HomeGoods was very good. And they said on the conference call, Mr. Herman said that, look, things have picked up already. And no one believes. But I'm believing in Herman. I think he's money good. So, yes, we've been buying TJX. Yeah. I mean, it's that chart kind of if you give us like a five year, it does really contrast with what a steady grower it's been. Yeah. I mean, it's just funny how fickle the market is here. They put up good number, good number, good number. They put bad number. and suddenly they're a pariah, and people say that Ross Stores is the one to buy.

38:32Now, Ross Stores did get a terrific CEO that we know from Boot Barn, and Jim Conroy has been on the show a bunch of times. He comes in. If you take a look at the Ross Stores chart, now that's Conroy just crushing TJ. I believe TJ is going to have a comeback, and it's not a Nike situation. It's just they had the wrong merchandise, particularly at the counter, and they have the ability to pivot. But it kind of reminds me of we got an upgrade of Airbnb today out of Key. They go to overweight and 191. There's been a travel name, Jim, that has defied the cruise lines, some of the airlines. I thought that Andrew's interview with Brian Chesky was seminal and made me feel like you want to buy.

39:16I quickly shot Brian a text saying, hey, great job. I should have done that to Andrew, but it was more Brian. So I'm thinking about the stock. Yes. I thought the stock should have rallied big on that because I think he told a great story. Yeah. Did you see this reply from Musk about Ed Bastian at Delta? Why? Because Delta went with Leo over Starling? Yeah, Leo. OK, a little orbiting there. I think that Elon, when he said it's—well, look, I mean, why did Ed say Elon Musk rejecting Starling? It's all true what they say about him. I don't know. All they say about him is he's a genius. Okay, he's a genius.

39:57I don't know. Maybe he's reading Isaacson's book in a negative light there. But Elon does come back with he will lose his job over this. And then the best way to sandbox an AI is to put it on a Delta flight. Yes. It will have no chance of accessing the Internet. Oh, come on, man. It's good. Ba-dum-bum. I mean, I guess he could do Vegas, too. Eli. In his spare time, he does Vegas. Yeah, fascinating back and forth. And of course, Delta will be one of the first earnings that we get for Q3. You see this post from David Ellison this morning, Jim, now referring to the company as Skydance. There's going to be all kinds of changes.

40:39We're getting new studio chiefs over at Warner. Digger opens this weekend. And how about there's the layoffs at Disney? Yes. It's a challenge. This whole segment is so challenged. You've really got to be gutsy to step into it. Wow. Look at that. You know, normally we get the Paramount logo off the mountain, but that's a look at the future. I'd rather look at the stock at 12 than it would all those different things than it's at 9. I'm trying to figure out how it would get. Maybe, remember when Faber killed it? I used to joke like that. Yes. David, he killed it because they have so much debt. They have to do something.

41:13I have to tell you, though, I will give them this. Remember when Zaz came in, you had the situation at Warner Brothers Discovery, where it was at$7. He said, listen, we're$28 stock. I went out to dinner with him with my wife and Pam. She's sensational. My wife hates to go out to dinner with business people, but she likes Pam. We're not on camera. And he said, you know, I was telling your husband, it's$7 stock, you go to$28. And my wife said, oh, yeah? Yeah? How's that? How's that? And then he turns to Pam. And I said, really? And he said, oh, it's 28. And I never, he was right. I mean, it's a good example because the rate environment's a little different now if you're highly leveraged, Jim.

41:56I mean, how much do you have to cut more now than you would have then? These are really dicey now when you do these. It's just like if you were to, look, it's no different from a house. I mean, you got to pay a lot. The mortgage rate is a little prohibitive. It's good to see. How about Enon Christ coming in as co-CEO? That didn't take long, did it? I mean, well, there is someone who the street argues knows how to cut when you need to. I know that people are disappointed in the stock performance, but I would come back to tell you that he saved the company, that the balance sheet was really bad.

42:28It's not enough. Anybody who bought it in 18 when he was on the show is absolutely justified to feel terrible about it. But there was some worth to what Enon did there. I don't want to dismiss that. Yeah. I mean, that industry went through a lot between COVID, between tariffs. Right. But, you know, what people look at is they say, look at this deal. Look at what Chris Cox did. He's done a lot of different things. Well, just the whole IP strategy. I mean, movies, you name it. No, I mean, look, you know, my dad sold toys for three years and that was even worse than when he sold carpet, but a little better than when he sold scotch tape, but not as bad when he sold corrugated.

43:06this series of checkered products until he sold doggy bags to Philadelphia restaurants because people are so darn cheap, they take the food home. That was my father. Come home with some valises, perhaps? Oh, no, he had this great string top bag that was heavy cardboard because he didn't want to be, he was environmental way ahead of everybody. I'm unmenacing because he loved the show of Carl Banks. He really did. He loved it. He would have liked today. That's for sure. That's for sure. So we got a nice bounce here on a Friday. Dow's up 350 on the back of that jobs number. Bonds are softer, yields at least, although off the session lows.

43:45Ten-year, got to 518, which was the lowest since mid-September, now up to 5.2. Stay with us. Well, there it is. New all-time high for NVIDIA. First since May 14th, Jim. Yeah, it's very significant because there's a lot of technical people in it, technically oriented. Now, I do want to point out that this is after meeting with this Morgan Stanley, after meeting with Colette Kress, who's really important, the CFO as well as Jensen. And I think we're going to assume that this buyback, the stepped-up buyback, it is really, really important because the P multiple got so compressed. I don't know if we have the chart going back to the IPO, but gains since then, 946 ,000%.

44:30It was there for people to be had. What can I say? When I went there, I was like a lonely boy. He said, how about do you think of it? What do you think of it if people at Wendy's used it for their languages? I said, are we really like we're scraping the bottom of the barrel? And the low that I had was when I said, can you play? I need to sing. I need to see the speech in Henry IV Part II and be in the Globe Theater. He said, done. And I said, but how are we going to monetize that? They found a way. I don't know. I mean, look, he's the best there is. He's the best there is. We're back after a break.

45:02Let's get to Jim and stop trading. I don't want to make light of how hard this market is, but I mean, here's McCormick yesterday. They did this Unilever deal, and the stock is down now to a 4.3 percent yield. People don't want to buy that. They don't want to buy the safety of a J &J, which is, I still think, what you should be buying here. They want industrials, and they want semis, and give it to them. Don't overthink this. People don't like safety right here. They think the safety stocks are not good. Stick with the J &J through thick and thin because it's good. But the food group, you know, Conagra was bad.

45:35General Mills was bad. Campbell's. Campbell's was a dividend cut. McCormick. When the slowdown, the textbook says buy those. No, they're not. It's safety last for those. Jim, good weekend. Oh, you too. Yeah. Absolutely. Thank you. Get some rest. We'll kick things off again next week. See you tonight. Mad Money, 6 p.m. Eastern time. Coming off the opening highs, Dow's up 200. Don't go anywhere. You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

46:27But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Squawk on the Street disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Squawk on the Street disclaimer.

46:57our most powerful trading platform yet at fidelity.com slash trader plus. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE SIPC.