Why is the World at War?

0:00This message comes from our NPR sponsor, Fort Myers. Islands, beaches, and neighborhoods. This summer, follow what feels right, like embracing your playful side on Fort Myers' white sand beaches. Direct flights arrive daily. Plan your trip at visitfortmyers.com. Today on State of the World, why is the world at war?

0:26You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories, up close where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. There were more direct confrontations between countries last year than at any point since World War II. That's what researchers who study global conflict say in a report from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program in Sweden. Civilian harm also reached record highs. In a few minutes, we'll hear from one of the report's authors. First, we'll focus on just one of the flashpoints highlighted in the report, the violence in the city of Al-Fashir in Sudan.

1:04Here's NPR's Africa correspondent, Emmanuel Akinwotu. The United Nations has said the violence in Al-Fashir bore the hallmarks of genocide. Violence that was filmed and widely shared by the militias that carried it out. From the deluge of footage posted on social media, fighters from the paramilitary rapid support forces at war with Sudan's army trample over the men, women and children they'd gone down. The RSF launched a brutal 18-month siege on the city in the western region of Darfur, the last city in the region where Sudan's army was stationed. Then in October last year, more than 60 ,000 people were killed in just a few days during the RSF's takeover of the city, according to the UN.

1:50The new report by the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme said the massacres in Al-Fashe pushed one-sided violence in Africa to its highest levels since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The fighters were not attempting to hide their crimes. Shaina Lewis is a Sudan specialist and senior advisor with Preventing and Ending Mass Atrocities, a non-profit organisation. They were rounding up young men on video, celebrating the fact that they had captured them, ordinary people, and were gunning them down in real time. She's one of a number of researchers who documented evidence of violence by the RSF and allied Arab militias against African ethnic groups, shared with the UN Security Council.

2:32But despite statements of condemnation, nothing was done to prevent it. I think that a lot of the geopolitical gridlock that is affecting other conflicts around the world, such as Gaza, such as Ukraine, has now trickled down into the Sudan file. So genocidal violence, which once provoked international action and vows of never again, happened in plain sight without obstruction. Emmanuel Akimoto, NPR News, Lagos. So that's an example of one of the armed conflicts pushing global violence to record highs, according to this study. We're going to hear from one of the report's authors now. Therese Peterson tracks global violence for the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University in Sweden.

3:19She spoke to NPR's Leila Fadl. What does your research show us about how violent the world is right now overall? all? The main finding is that the number of armed conflicts involving states reached a record high in 2025. And of those conflicts, also the number of conflicts between states, where states are involved on both sides, those doubled for the second year in a row, reaching the highest level recorded by the UCDP since the data collection started in 1946. And we also see a record high number of fatalities is the second deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. So overall, it's definitely a more violent world at the moment.

4:08I mean, the biggest that we're hearing about right now is Israel's war in Gaza and Russia and Ukraine. And Gaza is also one of the deadliest conflicts, but the Russia-Ukraine war accounted for around 62 % of the global fatalities in state-based armed conflict. Sudan is dominating the one-sided violence against civilians category, but the world's deadliest conflict was in fact Russia-Ukraine. What other conflicts do you categorize as one-sided violence against civilians? So one-sided violence against civilians is carried out by both non-state actors, such as IS, the Islamic State, in many countries, RSF in Sudan.

4:52But we also have state actors carrying out this type of violence. So some notable cases from 2025 is the government of Syria, which has had troubles managing the ethnic tensions in the country following the fall of the Assad regime. So we've seen a lot of massacres of civilians in the coastal areas and in the south. And also in Tanzania following the October 2025 elections, where we had a lot of violence carried out against protesters. So the conflict data program is viewed as the world's leading data source on organized violence. But I'm curious how you gather that data, especially as I'm hearing you mention, you know, governments that aren't reporting it, or you have to trust that the warring parties are telling you the truth.

5:41So what we do is try to use as many different original sources as possible. So to triangulate the information coming out, we try to evaluate who is saying this. Do they have an interest in portraying the situation in a certain way? We usually trust warring parties when they admit their own losses, but not necessarily when they claim losses from the other side. And we also revise the data all the time. When new and or better information becomes available, we go back and update it. So in cases such as Sudan and Ukraine that are very intense, the information on fatality numbers usually changes as time passes.

6:26In the report, you and your colleagues write that the high number of conflicts and wars recorded last year support the idea that Pax Americana and the liberal world order are coming to an end. What does that mean? Our data, it doesn't really allow us to identify the cause of the patterns that we see. But we do see that this expectation that the post-Cold War era would see fewer conflicts between states, for example. That's not really what we're seeing in the data. So wars between states are becoming more common. And this could be a sign that we have a world which is characterized by growing geopolitical competition, that the U.S.

7:10is not having this role as the world police anymore. But what this means for the future, of course, that's something that we will need to evaluate later. Therese Peterson is a senior analyst with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University in Sweden. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you for having me.

7:38That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening. This is Ira Glass. On This American Life, one thing we like is a good mystery. Sometimes about really big things, but most times, the little mysteries are the best. Our lost and found is currently filled with pants. I don't know. I've never seen this happen. Is this true? This is true. Mysteries of every size, each week, This American Life, wherever you get your podcasts.