Independents Aren’t Happy With Trump—What Does That Mean For The Midterms?

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0:58Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is John Opdyke. He's the founder and president of Open Primaries. John, thanks so much for coming on.

1:08John Opdycke: My pleasure. Thanks for having me. I'm really grateful for the conversation today because as of now, we are less than a month away from the midterm elections. Republicans currently have slim majorities both in the House and Senate, and Democrats are looking to flip both chambers. Competitive races across the country that will determine the balance of power could be decided by independent voters. So to start off the conversation, who are these independents and how much power do they have on November 3rd? Sure. Well, independents are the largest and fastest growing group of voters in America. It's now 48 percent, according to CNN.

1:45John Opdycke: There's a lot of misunderstanding about them, though. The typical understanding is that they're moderates, that they're in the middle. They're in between the Democrats and Republicans. It's exactly the opposite. Independents have no ideological cohesion. There's conservative independents, socialist independents, libertarian, liberal, conservative, you name it. What binds them together is values, not ideology. So if you talk to independents, what they will say is, I might be a socialist independent or a conservative independent, but what I want is the ability of elected leaders to work together across the aisle to solve the problems our country is facing.

2:34John Opdycke: So I don't want partisan warriors that just exacerbate problems and divide the country. I want people from the left, the right, to be able to work together to move the country forward. I think that distinction is really important, right, that independents aren't just moderates. They're not just Goldilocks where something's too hot, too cold, just right in the middle. They are progressive. They are super conservative, as you're saying, but they share this value system. So I am curious, when it comes to that value system, what values are really going to matter most on November 3rd? I think that, and again, this comes from years of organizing independence and also some new polling of independence.

3:18John Opdycke: So I speak both from polls, but from practical experience building coalitions of independent voters to enact open primaries. That's what I do professionally. The values, as I would say it, are as follows. There is a deep, deep American love and respect for fairness, for a level playing field, for everyone who is an American citizen should be able to fully participate. And a lot of what is happening right now is that if you don't join a private club, the Democrats and Republicans are private organizations. If you don't join those private clubs, you don't get to vote in the primaries in many states.

4:03John Opdycke: You don't have representation on the Federal Election Commission, the boards of elections. The whole system is set up as if every American is a member of a private club, the Democrats and Republicans, but half the country isn't. And a value that independents feel very strongly about is, hey, you shouldn't have to join a private organization to be a public citizen. The other thing, too, that we're seeing, and I touched on this before, is there is a growing anger, a growing frustration with the kind of algorithm division machine that seems to run America. We never solve the immigration problem. We just pit Americans against each other.

4:51John Opdycke: I mean, there's polling that shows that 90 % of the American people want a secure border and a pathway to citizenship. They want humane treatment of people that are here illegally, and they don't want an open border policy. And yet our politicians won't do that. They do one side or the other. And there's a lot, I think going back to your question about what values, why can't we combine liberal and conservative ideas? Who said that's illegal? Why can't we deal with the deficit? Why can't we deal with our eroding infrastructure in the country? Why can't we deal with these things by bringing good ideas from the left and the right together to make progress?

5:37John Opdycke: I think independents are the most frustrated with that, but a lot of Democrats and Republicans are too.

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6:48That's not a place I certainly would want to be in if I were a lawmaker heading into the elections just less than a month away. But recent polling shows that Democrats are doing better than Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by anywhere between two and 12 points, depending on what poll you're looking at. And you see more independent voters breaking for Democrats and supporting Democrats in these polls. Why do you think that is?

7:14John Opdycke: Well, independents have been swinging back and forth Democrat, Republican for the last 30 years. And part of that is because we don't have great tools to express ourselves. You know, it's kind of like, how do you send a message that you don't like the war in Iran, the tariffs, the cruelty of ICE and$6.75 diesel? How do you send that message? Well, pretty much the only way to do that is to vote against the Republicans in power. And that means you vote Democratic. But the mistake that the Democrats always make is they think, oh, now people are Democrats. That's nothing could be further from the truth.

7:58John Opdycke: If you look at this, this is what's amazing about the moment we're in. Donald Trump is the most unpopular president right now in the history of America. There's only one political organization less popular, the Democratic Party. So voters don't have a lot of options about how to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo, which is why you see they vote Democrat when the Republicans are in power and they vote Republican when the Democrats are in power. And that's effective but limited in terms of its ability to change the direction of the country. And when you're looking at this election specifically, what types of candidates, especially let's start with Democrats, are attracting independent voters?

8:46Because you saw in the primary season more DSA endorsed or DSA member candidates, they notched some wins. You also saw some moderate Democrats get some wins as well. So where are the independents going on the Democratic side?

9:04John Opdycke: Well, again, I think that this is sophisticated and nuanced. It's not one way or the other, because a lot of voters are saying, I'm going to vote Democrat. I don't care who they put up, Donald Duck, because I want to send a message to Donald Trump. Other independents are saying, hey, I want a Democrat. And we're seeing this with people like Rob Sand in Iowa, a Democrat who is very respectful of certain things that are more valued on the center right, religion, guns. There are certain cultural things that he is appealing to, and that's why he's at 55 % in the polls. Other independents are attracted to DSA candidates that are saying, we've got to address the income inequality and the lack of affordability.

9:56John Opdycke: So it really depends on the state, the dynamic. There's a lot of different things going on. And many different Democrats in different states are resonating with independents. But it would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to think that these voters are now becoming Democrats. Just because you vote for a Democrat doesn't make you a Democrat. I guess if I was a Democrat, then my next question to you would be, well, then how do I retain them? Hey, we got them once. We got them. Let's say that independent votes for a Democratic candidate in November. OK, we hooked them once. How do we turn this person from independent to a lifelong Democrat?

10:42Is it even possible?

10:43John Opdycke: No, it is possible. Neither party wants to do it. You could ask the same question of the Republicans. I think neither party wants to enter into a partnership with independents. See, that's the thing that's on the table. Not become a loyal party member. Independents are not joining a party. They're not doing it. But they're open to partnering coalition politics. And here are the key elements to that. One, the party that becomes the champion of restructuring our political system so that independent voters have full voting rights. That's a way to build trust with independence. Open primaries, nonpartisan redistricting, all these gimmicks that the parties, the ways they've rigged the system to control the outcomes.

11:36If both parties gerrymander, both parties are against open primaries.

11:41John Opdycke: The party that says, hey, we want to partner with independents, we're going to stop gerrymandering, we're going to open the primaries, they would be in a much better position to build that long-term trust. The other thing, and this is just, I can't emphasize this enough. Both parties are guilty of taking important issues that the American people care about that affect their day-to-day lives and not solving those problems, but making them go on and on and on so they can fundraise off those issues. problems. And if either party wants to really connect with independence, they'll start solving problems and working with people in the other party on those solutions.

12:34John Opdycke: And that's very difficult for the parties because they're built to do base politics. I think that's an interesting point. And I've been in this chair specifically since 2022. and in the lead-ups to the 2024 election when Republicans were blaming Democrats for the economy, I would talk to Democrats about the economy and they would downplay it. They would say it's not that bad. The numbers are good, but that's not how people on the ground are feeling. Now, let's flip-flop. It's two years later and it's almost like a deja vu, except I'm having very similar conversations with Republicans where Republicans are saying, hey, the economy isn't as bad as people think.

13:18This is temporary. The squeeze is temporary. The numbers are good. And what have you. If I'm an independent then and I'm going into this election, how am I viewing the economy, especially knowing if I have the memory, if memory serves 2024, I was blaming or people were blaming Democrats for the economy. Now in 2026, people are blaming Republicans.

13:45John Opdycke: Yeah, I mean, every pundit in America is saying this. If you want to lower prices, you don't start a war with Iran and a trade war with Canada. Just you don't do that. And yet the Republicans and Donald Trump, the level of arrogance they have, which is we promised you this, but we're going to do the exact opposite. And we expect you to still vote for us. And people are saying, not so fast. But Joe Biden said, I'm going to be a one-term president. And then he said, screw that. I want to run for a second term and I'm canceling the presidential primary. Both parties have a track record of just ignoring what they told voters they were going to do.

14:29John Opdycke: And people are getting frustrated with it. And do you think that's the reason why we're seeing this historic rise in people identifying as independents? Because at the beginning of the year, a Gallup poll said that in 2025, there has been a record-breaking amount of Americans who identified as independents, 45%. And that is almost double the amount who identify as either a Republican or a Democrat. So when you hear that 45 % of Americans last year identified as independence, how much power do they have on November 3rd? Well, we're in a very funny position. We have huge power and no power all at the same time.

15:12John Opdycke: Huge power in that independence will decide which party gains this election. End of story. If the Democrats take the House and the Senate, it's because of independence, pure and simple. So what do we get for that? What do we get for delivering that party into power. And I would say very little because both parties kind of take the posture, we got your votes. We don't have to give you anything. You're not part of the in-crew. You're just going to swing back and forth. So thanks for your votes. Have a good day. And there's a lot of people working to figure out how to enhance the political negotiating position of independent voters.

16:00John Opdycke: There's independent candidates. There's new political parties. My group, Open Primaries, we're trying to leverage that issue to get more power. But right now, the largest group of voters in the country and the fastest growing young people today the they relate to the democrats and republicans like blockbuster video and myspace like they're just like part of the boomers they're very independent latinos latinos are unbelievably independent culturally and politically so these are massive trends in the society and we have to figure out how to get more in the bargain for that and that's not easy because here's the other thing independents are not that eager to go join a third party they see the third parties as almost like mini-me's like they're just like the democrats and republicans they just don't really have a lot of money and a lot of clout and i don't want to be a part of that either so you know it's it's it's a it's a methodological organizational political challenge for how to give a voice for the largest group of voters in the country.

17:17I feel grateful in my position. I think since I've been at Forbes, I've had somewhere in the neighborhood of 2000 conversations in this chair and I've talked and let's say you take a person's label off their party label of Republican or Democrat because I'm able to have these long form conversations. If you didn't know what side of the aisle they sat on, when you get down to a lot of the issues, A lot of people want the same things, right? They want an economy that works for them. They want more nuanced conversations and reform when it comes to immigration. They don't want these never-ending wars.

17:55And I'm curious, what do you think this all means then for the independent movement come 2028?

18:02John Opdycke: Yeah, see, I think independents are exactly as you described. They want the basic fundamental agreement of America to continue. And I would just add one thing to your menu that I think all Americans want, but independents in particular are very sensitive to. And that's the following. We are an experiment in self-government. And a lot of the messaging that comes out of Washington from both parties is the experiment is over. It's Team Red versus Team Blue. It's 24-7 warfare. It's over. This is where we've come to. And I think a lot of independents are saying there has to be a continuation of the experiment of how we, a diverse country, a country of immigrants, a country of, you know, you put 10 Americans in a room and you'll get 11 different opinions on any issue.

19:06John Opdycke: Self-government is not the norm. Putin is the norm. authoritarianism is the norm in in in the world we're an experiment with self-government and i think a lot of independents are saying we're not ready for that experiment to be over we want to keep advancing it developing it improving it and i think that that's something that when you when you talk about like what political leaders attract independence it really is not ideology It's it's they can be conservative. They can be DSA. They can be moderate. They can be anything, a combo of those things. It's they touch something among independents of saying citizens have to leave this country and build it and create it.

19:55John Opdycke: It's not it can't be these professional parties that are now going to be completely in control. And my last question to you is, who do you think, if you can think of one off the top of your head, who is that candidate right now that is touching and striking something in the independent movement, whether it be an actual independent candidate themselves or a Democrat or Republican? I mean, I think there's four West Coast independents, five of them actually, that are doing great. And they're touching that. It's Kevin Kiley in California. It's Brian Bangs in South Dakota. It's Todd Achilles in Idaho.

20:33John Opdycke: Seth Bodnar in Montana. And Dan Osborne in Nebraska. They're running well-funded, populist, independent campaigns to give people an alternative to Team Red and Team Blue. I think there are Democrats like Rob Sand in Iowa that are very tuned in to the independent ethos and values. They're running as a Democrat, but they're like very culturally comfortable with voters that are not part of Team Blue. I think that on the Republican side, they're going through like, I don't know how to describe it. There's almost like a PTSD going on right now with the kind of like MAGA and Trump and the Republicans and stuff.

21:27John Opdycke: And it's harder to identify Republicans that are really making an effort to connect with independents. But I guarantee you they're out there. Someone like Mike Bloomberg, when he was mayor of New York, he was both a Republican and an independent. And he really understood the independent culture, but he's not in office right now. So we'll see. We'll see also as this constituency gets bigger, I think you're going to see more and more Democrats and Republicans start to become independents. I mean, I've had I've had off the record conversations with members of Congress, both current and former, who say if there was a strong independent caucus, 25 percent of the sitting members of Congress would join it.

22:19These are Democrats and Republicans that would be so they want to be independent.

22:25John Opdycke: They want to work across the aisle. They just feel hamstrung by the primary system, the campaign finance system, the partisan control, the committee structure. So I think there's a there's a lot of possibility in the next couple of years of some new arrangements emerging in the country. Well, we will certainly keep our eye out on the independent movement as we head to November and beyond. But John, thank you so much for the conversation. It was really interesting and you're welcome back anytime.

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