AI Stocks Strong But Not Much Else; Nvidia, GE Vernova, Comfort Systems In Focus

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0:40Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Wednesday, September 10th. It's Alexis Garcia here. And the S &P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs earlier in the morning before pairing those gains. A lot of that strength was in AI, and boy, oh boy, was Oracle a big winner after a blowout earnings report. And we also had some inflation data thrown into the mix ahead of the Fed decision on interest rate cuts next week. And here with me to break down everything you need to know about today's market action is our very own IBD News editor, Ed Carson. And I guess, should we say cooler than expected, Ed, today?

1:26Maybe. I don't know. I'm going to let you judge on that. But I want to take a look at three relatively hot stocks, NVIDIA, GE, Vernova, and Comfort Systems. All right. Well, we got hot stocks coming your way. But first, let's take a look at the major indexes, see how that finished today. The S &P 500 up three-tenths of a percent. The Dow down almost half a percent. The NASDAQ finishing the day up fractionally and small caps down about two tenths of a percent. So let me go ahead and share my screen here, Ed, and let's get to it. I believe I'm starting on the NASDAQ here. Thoughts here. As you mentioned, the AI play seemed very strong today.

2:10The NASDAQ retreating off those earlier highs but finishing the day in the green. Yeah, I mean, Oracle, which is an easy listed, so it didn't actually directly help the NASDAQ. Oracle had this, it's a massive backlog. And of course, that's not just positive for that, but it says like they're going to spend a ton on chips, like from NVIDIA and others. They're going to spend a ton on data centers, which will mean that they'll need more power, which will need something more cooling systems. And if Oracle strikes, not just that, of course, that's helping all these AI stocks. And that's thinking is also, well, if Oracle's doing that, well, other people are going to be doing that, too.

2:45So, again, it reignited that whole AI sector. There was also Taiwan Semi, which is also not NASDAQ listed, but that came out with sales today that were pretty strong. And so that makes chips for NVIDIA and others. But the NASDAQ, yeah, it backed off. Given all the strength that was in AI plays, it's sort of like, well, it was only up a fraction at the end of the day. Again, it's hard to be upset with your record highs, you know, and it's not like it fell. But it was a little disappointing in that regard. But yes, AI stocks were where things were going. There's a couple other areas that did well, but it was basically AI today.

3:26All right, let's take a look at the S &P 500. Then, Ed, this one also nice movement today up about three-tenths of a percent. So thoughts here. Yeah, and this one does get the benefit of Oracle, which is a huge company. And so there's that and NVIDIA and some of the other AI plays. A lot of them are in the S &P 500, still only pushed up 0.3%. But again, it's at record highs, trended higher. So it's not like, and we'll look at other things. It's not like it was terrible outside of AI or out of techs. But yeah, it was strong, but very, very focused, the strength today. And the IBD Live team had Mark Minervini on this morning.

4:09And I think the message from the morning was not terrible, but also not super great either. But good to see at least the AI stocks doing well today. Let's check in with the Dow Jones. This went down about four tenths of a percent today at right off that 10 day line. Yeah. And keep in mind, the Dow has Nvidia, so it's not in completely immune from AI stocks. And it's like it was down. But again, we're just right there. I mean, look, it would take a modest day and we're at record highs. So, you know, it just and, you know, this we've been still trending higher. It's there's not really, really much.

4:47We're sort of pausing above a prior pause. And so it's still looking fine. It just wasn't a particularly strong day. All right. How about small caps? This one, as we know, has seen some strength as we've seen this sector rotation happening in the market. But this one, a second straight day of losses here down about two tenths of a percent. I mean, not really that bad. You might have expected bigger losses because there's not many AI stocks in this. And small caps, if there is a general negative vibe, well, small caps tend to move more. So if this had fallen one percent, I don't think I would have been very surprised.

5:26So really, I think this was pretty strong action all in all. There were some things out there, some industrials and some energy and some materials that actually did well. And some of the other sectors, again, they were down a little bit, but not terribly. So I think pretty good action overall here. And let's check in on RSP. That's the S &P 500 equal weighted ETF, just to get a sense of market breadth. And this down about a tenth of a percent today. So again, really kind of illustrating the case that not much really participating in the action today, but for those A &E stocks. Yeah, not participating, but not really going home either.

6:01It's not like, again, down, you know, it's just a little bit below all time highs, held the 21 day line, barely, barely moved. So, yeah, this is just sort of like ultimately it's almost like it's sort of just weird, but it feels like it was like almost a nothing day for much of the market, despite some really big moves in some AI stocks. All right, let's take a look at QQEW. That's the NASDAQ 100 equal weighted ETF. This went also down about eight tenths of a percent today and looks like finishing below that 21 day line. Look, this is one of the weaker indexes. I mean, it's an ETF, but it's a growth index.

6:38Yes, it takes the equal weight out of things, but it does suggest some weakness outside of some of the hotter names, the bigger cap names. It hasn't been really able to get above the 50-day line in any kind of sustained way for a while. So that's a little disappointing. This was the weakest part. Even then, it didn't fall apart. But this has been the weakest, these major indexes and ETS that we look at. All right. Let's take a look at the Treasury yield, Ed. This also today down about 1%. And again, near some of these five-month lows here. But we got the Fed decision coming next week. So what are your thoughts here?

7:20Yeah, the PPI inflation report, it was somewhat mixed. I mean, the headline number unexpectedly fell month to month, and the year-over-year decline came down. The core rate was a little bit more in line, rising. So we'll see. And it seems like maybe on some cases, maybe producers are, you know, they're facing some, if you look at the details, they're facing higher costs, maybe tariffs, other things, but they're not passing them on. And maybe that'll change. We'll see. The CPI report will be important. But while this came down, it didn't seem like the Fed rate odds changed. I mean, the 25 basis points is locked in.

7:54It would take an astounding CPI report to even discourage anybody to think that would not happen. There's still the possibility of 50 basis points, but it's really a small chance. And it really didn't rise on today's number. Maybe the combination of a tame-ish PPI, the weak jobs number, and if we get a tame CPI, that might be more realistic. So it will be important to see that. But this may reflect in some ways more concerns about weakness rather than, you know, rate cut hopes per se. All right. Well, let's take a look at a couple of sectors, Ed, starting with the IBD 50 ETF. That's ticker FFTY.

8:32This one having a nice day up 1.6 percent. So, again, probably getting that AI boost here. Yeah, there's some AI names in there. And so actually, if you punch up ARKK, because that's another thing that we often look at that speculative growth. And this one was down and its biggest holding Tesla was up. So it's like, you know, there was definitely it depends on what you had. And I don't think Cathie Wood's ARK has a lot of AI names. I think she's gotten more in there, but it's just not as much. And so you can see how that again, it may have just been luck of the draw. ARK is doing fine, you know, but I just pointing out it's like, wow, it just depends on the same.

9:10stocks you know uh very similar investors could have had you know significantly different outcomes today because of just how which stocks were moving all right let's take a look at chips this is the van ek semiconductor etf smh is the ticker there up one percent today and this is one we've been keeping an eye on uh it's been having a nice move over the last couple weeks uh getting to that round 300 number here yeah i'm almost surprised it didn't do even better because there's a lot of names, a lot of big names that were very strong today, released up, say, 3%, 4%, including NVIDIA, which we'll look at, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom.

9:47Some of these big, big names were up very strongly. But look, this is showing a lot of strength. A lot of the AI strength is in chips. All right, let's take a look at software. That's IGV. That's the iShare software ETF. This went up about 1.6 % today, but again, retreating from those intraday highs to close in the lower end of that range, but looking like it's charging up the right side of this base here. Yeah, it's Justin Nielsen. I can hear Justin Nielsen saying in the back of my head, well, the true range, if you count from where the gap up was, it was still probably in the upper half of the true range from yesterday's close.

10:25Yeah, I mean, Oracle came off its highest, but yeah, this was Oracle. Oracle is the number one holding, I think, and Palantir did pretty well. So a few of the names clearly were driving IGV. And so those were a couple of the big names. And that's a big reason why IGV came on. Harvard Business School Executive Education delivers breakthrough learning for leaders, stimulating classes led by faculty at the forefront of their fields, topics that will define the future of business, discussions that transform perspectives and ways of thinking, and access to the brightest business minds on the planet.

11:00Learn more at hbs.me slash breakthrough. That's hbs.me slash breakthrough. All right. Well, you mentioned some hot stocks. Let's take a look at NVIDIA today. This one closing the day up 3.8 % ed above the 50-day line, retaking that key moving average. Yeah, there were concerns after earnings. And maybe that it's just not that maybe it's losing the market share to Broadcom. But hey, if Oracle has that kind of backlog, I think the feeling of everybody's going to win. I mean, there's all sorts. There's a number of stocks. And the next one we look at will look similar. We're a number of stocks bouncing above their 50-day line.

11:40And with NVIDIA, it's a little tougher. If you drew a really tight trend line, you could probably and, you know, probably find some ways in there to get it broke a trend line or got there at the top. Or maybe even from 184, like if you really drew it tight, you know, and you would be close to it. So on a weekly chart, it'll have a flat base after this week. So that would be something else you could be looking at. So again, showing strength again is actionable again. It came back, tested, definitely was actionable today. The only thing is that it doesn't seem to be the leader in the AI space. And some of those leaders are extended, but there were a number of AI plays that looked like this.

12:24All right. We want to look at GE Vernova, Ed. That's ticker GEV. I'll switch back to the daily here. This one finishing the day up 6.25%. Again, nice action here at the top of the trading range. Yeah, this one closed very well. No give back there. Clear move above the 50-day line now after falling below there and hitting resistance there for a little bit. But he punched him through, definitely getting above key levels. It was actionable. It'll have a base after this week. Yeah, I mean, if you need a ton more data centers, that just says a lot more power, a lot higher rates coming forward. So this was definitely moving up.

13:05Okay, and let's take a look at TickerFix. That is the Comfort Systems USA. They're doing a lot of heating, ventilation. I'm assuming this is also an AI play as well. This one finishing the day up 6%. And looking like it's powering above this range here that it's been. Yeah, powering about that whole range. And it was going to be a flat base pretty soon. It's not going to be a flat base now because of today, but I think you could, there's a few names like this that sort of traded around range. And you know, some of the indexes did that. Yeah, this is very much involved in cooling and some other things that are tied to AI data centers because they use a lot of power and they run hot.

13:43They need a lot of cooling. And we've seen Comfort Systems is one of the leaders. This was our stock of the day. There's been some accelerating earnings growth for several quarters now. So, you know, this, you know, found support at the 21-day line, the relative strength line is hitting a new high today. Because it wasn't a base, it's not a blue dot. But if you consider this actionable, it would have had a blue dot because it's hitting a new high as it's sort of effectively breaking out. So, and strong volume, there's a lot to like about how this one acted today. All right, Ed. Well, a lot to like about your analysis as well.

14:21So thank you so much for gracing us with your presence today. And that is it for this episode of Stock Market Today. We'll be back with more market analysis tomorrow morning, starting with IBD Live. You can head on over to investors.com slash IBD Live for all the details there. I would really encourage you to go back and watch Mark Minervini's appearance from this morning. A lot of great educational content there. And we'll also be having David Keller joining the crew on Friday. So lots of special guests this week. And hey, if you have some time this afternoon, why don't you stick around? You can join us for the Investing with IBD podcast.

15:01Justin Nielsen is going to be talking to Eric Kroll. That will go live on our YouTube channel at 5 p.m. Eastern. So again, some great content, lots of investing, education coming your way. So check that out. And thank you so much for watching. And we'll be right back here tomorrow after the close.