Chips Send Nasdaq To New Highs; Micron, Shopify, Biogen In Focus

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0:25Justin Nielsen:Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Tuesday, September 22nd. It's Alyssa Coram along with Justin Nielsen here and a little bit of a mixed day, but chip stocks are continuing to power the Nasdaq higher. We're at record highs. Justin, what do you have for us?

0:42Alissa Coram:Yeah, I think you had a premonition yesterday. You're like, I know these new highs are coming. And Chips certainly got us there. Let's take a look at a few stocks today, including Micron, which was our stock of the day today. I do have a position in that, and it does have earnings coming up. We'll also take a look at Shopify, which had some news out. And Medical? Not dead yet. We'll take a look at BIIB. That's Biogen.

1:05Justin Nielsen:Sure. Sounds like a plan. We'll go to those stocks. But first, a closer look at the major indexes, and the NASDAQ continues to be the shining star, leading the party, up another half a percent today in new highs after that big day yesterday to kick off the week. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 also had an up day, up seven-tenths of a percent or so, but still in a weak position. The S &P was flat on the day, holding yesterday's gain. So I think that's the win, is that we held the big gain. And then the Dow was down about four-tenths of a percent, a reversing lower. Not the best look there. But as always, or most of the time, we like to start with the positive.

1:54Justin Nielsen:So let's look at the NASDAQ, Justin. Yeah.

1:58Alissa Coram:And there is a lot of positive here because, again, what we've been waiting for is just can we cobble a few days together in terms of the positive side? And after yesterday's really big move, which I mean, let's face it, that was worth a couple a couple days of strength, maybe three days of strength just by itself. and here we are now adding to it, getting to new high ground. It's just a very different look than what we had a week ago. So you have to kind of lean into that strength. If you were bearish, if you were having, you know, frustrations, struggles, all of that kind of has to get put out the window and you have to kind of say, look, I've got to analyze the market that we're in right now.

2:41Alissa Coram:I can't just look at the struggles that I've had or anything like that. You got to look at the market that you're in right now. And right now, there's a lot of strength. Now, just to be clear, let's take a look at RSP because the S &P 500, while it's right up there with the NASDAQ doing well, it's not a broad space here. And there are, as you said, a mixed day and some mixed messages that the markets are kind of showing us right now. So it's a real interesting thing as we go through some of the ETFs. I think that'll be a little bit clearer. But in addition to a lot of these, I mean, look, the NASDAQ composite, it closed off its highs, but still with a very, you know, solid gain and still up in the upper part of its range.

3:26Alissa Coram:But as you pointed out with the Russell 2000, yes, it was up, but a little bit more weak in terms of where it closed. Dow Jones Industrials, very weak in terms of where it closed. Even the S &P 500, not great, you know, certainly in the lower part of its range as well. So and what was leading? That's, you know, certainly chips, you know, chips. You can take a look at SMH clear winner. They're really sending things higher. If you look at the Magnificent Seven, which we looked at yesterday as well, MAGS, that, you know, held up pretty well given yesterday's action. so you know not not anything bad IGV interestingly enough because software was another very strong area that finished off its its highs but I was a little surprised to see GDX you know the gold miners back kind of looking interesting we were talking about this on iBody live this morning and these got a lot stronger throughout the day so you know Eldorado gold that you have up right now, certainly a standout breaking a downtrend.

4:41Alissa Coram:Yeah, it was kind of interesting there. And talk about some names that we haven't heard in a while. Let's look at ITB, the home construction area. This is still not an area I'm, you know, looking to bottom fish on, still below the 200 day moving average line. But when you're looking at where strength is on a given day, you can't ignore that ITB, the home construction ETF, was up a solid 3 % plus. Of course, you can kind of look at the TNX or TYX, the yields, having kind of settled down a little bit, you know, that might be helping the situation there. You know, but again, it wasn't like these were, you know, plummeting.

5:24Alissa Coram:Still, you know, ITB, a very notable move.

5:28Justin Nielsen:Absolutely. Okay, so keeping a finger on the pulse of that, let's also take a look at some of the other areas of note. So you talked about the broader chip sector, SMH clearing a key level. Also, a little more specifically, the memory stocks, taking a look at the DRAM ETF up 3.4%, clearing resistance as well. So continuing to make strides. Of course, after, you know, tripping up investors a little bit, got that last shakeout, it looks like, before this breakout. But of course, you know, we don't know yet if it will stick, but we're seeing momentum here, no doubt.

6:10Alissa Coram:Absolutely. Looking very promising because, again, as opposed to kind of coming right up to that level and getting turned away, we're very clearly through that resistance level. So and, you know, this is where looking at a number of the stocks, you're seeing, oh, they're coming up again in terms of the setups, the action being positive, leading the market today. Another area that I think is a little interesting is NCLD. This is another roundhill offering. This is the NeoCloud. And this was up a decent amount today. Again, finished off its highs, but it has some really interesting stocks in there.

6:49Alissa Coram:So that'll be something worth watching. And even take a look at the IPO, the Renaissance IPO ETF. It's interesting that this got back above its 50-day moving average line, kind of suggesting a little bit more of that risk on idea. And to that end, we've been talking about this since Friday. It really did interest me how ARKK, the ARKK Innovation Fund by Kathy Woods, how strong that came out of the gate, whereas a lot of things were still struggling in a lot of ways. RSP not showing the breadth, but a lot of this risk on idea was catching fire very quickly. And RK certainly leading the market out into new high ground.

7:36Justin Nielsen:If we're going to have a Nero rally, these are kind of the areas that we'd prefer. Yes, exactly. So we'll take it. Okay. Well, speaking of memory stocks, let's take a look at one name in particular. Here's a look at Micron, up 5 % on the day. This was our stock of the day. and not only have we been focused on you know the incredible fundamental strength that we've seen the acceleration quarter after quarter but from a technical perspective justin as this bottomed and and started moving back up in recent months we were keeping a very close eye on that round number of a thousand it was able to conquer that in recent sessions and now getting above the short term marked highs as well.

8:23Justin Nielsen:So perhaps some earlier entries carrying over our theme from yesterday's show into today. There were some earlier chances here with this one, but no doubt a powerful breakout today within this space. This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise.

8:54Alissa Coram:Absolutely. And I wanted to bring this up again. I do have a position in this myself. You know, I am looking at the fact that earnings are coming out in eight days. This is a recent rebuy for me. So it's not like I have all this cushion on it. So that's going to really kind of determine how I handle this, how much cushion can I get before that eight-day earnings report comes out. Certainly another way to go, there's a lot to choose from. As you saw, DRAM looks so good. Sandisk, I think, looks just as good. And I know you've played this a number of times as I buy. So that's another way to go without the earnings coming up.

9:34Alissa Coram:But let's remember, a lot of times your cohorts, their earnings can certainly influence what happens to you. But the Micron, Sandisk, take your pick. The fact that these are getting above that resistance area, I too was looking at that 1 ,000 level. And again, it seemed like it could cross it, but then it couldn't stay above it, crossed it, couldn't stay above it. So now I did raise my line to exactly where you did. And this is where I was kind of adding a little bit more. So started it as it crossed a thousand, added a little bit more yesterday and added just a tiny bit more today to kind of get a little bit more into it.

10:10Alissa Coram:But I'm probably going to stop here because, again, earnings coming up.

10:14Justin Nielsen:Well, nicely done picking this one up, Justin, because it really feels like it wasn't until today that it was definitively getting out of this trading range, almost kind of like the Nasdaq, right? We have had this sideways chop. Now we're blasting out of it. So similar situation here with Micron and some of these other memory plays. And even though they've been advancing in recent sessions along with other tech and AI areas, it wasn't totally clear that, hey, is this area going to get the leadership baton once again, or has the money rotated to some of the other pockets. But this is looking better and better in recent sessions.

10:59Alissa Coram:Yeah. And we have to remember that a lot of times the leaders of the last cycle don't lead in the next cycle. But I think there's some arguments to be made. Are we in a completely new cycle or is this really a continuation of the last cycle? We're still in kind of an AI themed rally. So I don't know that we can necessarily discount the leaders from before and say, oh, it's a new cycle. We need new leadership. I wouldn't be surprised if we do get some of that back to the old leaders. And it also kind of reflects, you know, again, some of my ads here were because I started small on Friday. You know, as it crossed a thousand, I certainly wasn't convinced.

11:41Alissa Coram:We had a lot of times where the market was coming up to these levels, getting turned away. The individual stocks were coming up to, you know, levels looking interesting and then getting turned away. Micron had certainly done that before, but this is where you can start small and then you let the market kind of drag you in. And that's exactly what's been happening. I kept on having these hurdles like, okay, well, if it can do this, then maybe I'll give you some more money. And it just kept on doing that. So, so yeah, a little bit of those ads was kind of correcting for the small position that I had to get, you know, to get it more like a reasonable position, uh, at least 5 % because I was well below 5 % when I started the position.

12:22Alissa Coram:So it's again, with portfolio management rules, uh, you have to have things in there that kind of help you mitigate risk, protect yourself, but also allow you to shift as the market shifts. Because I do think we're at an inflection point this week. Um, could be wrong, but you know, you want to start leaning, uh, the way the market is telling you to lean. And instead of being very rigid saying, nope, I'm not going to be fooled again, you got to say, OK, well, I'll start bending and see if that gets rewarded.

12:53Justin Nielsen:Yeah. And managing risk along the way, like you said, being aware of position size and adjusting from there. And you mentioned earnings in eight days. It's expected to be another big quarter. I love how on our market surge charts we have the upcoming estimates and the past results marked, you know, on the chart. And yeah, it's going to be another big quarter, triple digit growth expected on both the top and bottom line. So we'll see what they deliver, what the guidance is like, and most importantly, how the stock reacts.

13:27Alissa Coram:Yeah. And let's remember, we're not big watchers of PE ratios, price to earnings ratios. You know, we just haven't found that much value in tracking them. But it is interesting because we know that a lot of people do look at it. You look at that forward PE of eight, and it's just incredible. For as much as this price has moved, and that's the numerator here, it's still the earnings are moving so much faster and keeping this forward valuation very low.

13:56Justin Nielsen:Yeah, we love to see it. Okay, let's go to Shopify, this moving on news this week. It's already up 15%, Justin, in just two trading sessions. Earnings not an issue here. We've still got another month until earnings, but clearing a trend line within a large cup with handle base. And the news here, Justin, you can chime in as well. But basically, I think to kick off the week, we've had a lot of enthusiasm about Meta's AI agent Muse and Amazon not really wanting to play ball with Muse on behalf of customers going to merchant websites and making purchases on behalf of users. Sounds like Shopify willing to play.

14:42Justin Nielsen:The questions that matter most are about what happens next. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market where you can trade on elections, the economy, finance, crypto, sports and more. Download Polymarket. Use code W20 for a$20 bonus on your first trade. 18 plus trading involves risk of loss. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. All on that.

14:58Alissa Coram:Yes, it's it's very interesting because a lot of people were thinking, hey, with all of these AI agents out there, is it going to destroy some of these software companies like Shopify? And we saw enterprise, you know, and software in general just really take it on the chin as much of the software area. If we just look at IGV again, remember, much of the software area was getting all this news on the huge benefits of Anthropic agents and what they could do. They could do your taxes. They could do this. And it was kind of like, well, gosh, why are we going to need all these software companies that we're paying subscriptions to?

15:37Alissa Coram:why not just pay a subscription to an AI agent that can do it for us? So back to Shopify. Well, I think this latest news in terms of a partnership with Meta and Metamuse, got to make sure I don't say Metamucil because at my age, that's what you're thinking a little bit more about. But yeah, with Shopify now, you know, saying, hey, we're partnering with Meta. I think it's really kind of shifting the narrative here for a lot of the worries about software going away to, hey, how can they work with these AI agents? How can they maybe even benefit from some of these AI agents? And I think that's where the valuation has really shifted on Shopify.

16:19Alissa Coram:And so what has that done? It's created kind of this, you know, really nice pattern here. We got above the 200-day moving average line, got above the 50-day moving average line, couldn't hold it, but really did not lose too much ground there, right? We kind of held right below the 200-day moving average line and now crossing a downtrend. So it'll be really interesting to see as this kind of starts playing out how this partnership goes, what happens with Shopify. But I think it's definitely, I think there's been a lot of angst of how disruptive AI is. But let's not forget, some of these companies are going to be able to pivot and say, hey, how can we participate?

16:57Alissa Coram:How can we stay relevant? And those that are doing these partnerships, I think, are going to be the ones to watch. And so Shopify is right back there on my list. Yeah.

17:05Justin Nielsen:And let's go to Biogen. This is ticker BIIB. And it's in the profitable biotech group. A lot of resistance around the 220 area, Justin, but getting above the bulk of that recent trading action today with a gain of nearly 3%. Mm-hmm.

17:25Alissa Coram:And I think this is a pattern that we're seeing a lot of where, again, it was really challenging that resistance area. It was getting above it, but couldn't hold above it. And so you got to remember, just because something breaks out and then it looks like a breakout failure. And let's be honest, we were seeing a lot of breakout failures over the last month or so. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the chart is broken. And I think this is a good example of that. And so this came down, it got support at the 50 day moving average line. There was nothing that told me, hey, this is this is something that needs a brand new base.

17:59Alissa Coram:So what I do in a lot of these cases is I can use that old buy point or, you know, sometimes I'll use a new one with a downtrend line or something like that. But for me, I thought it was completely reasonable to use that old buy point and say, hey, if it can retake that, the chart's not broken, I'm going to say this is still potentially actionable. And that's exactly what it did. Now, the medical area is very interesting because, you know, XLV, if you look at the health care ETF, that, you know, that hasn't looked the best lately, but it did get support at the 50 day moving average line. And XBI recently came down quite a bit.

18:36Alissa Coram:And this does have a lot of development stage biotechs in there. But look at how that got support at the 50-day moving average line. For the most part, it dipped below it a little bit, but retook it very quickly and really kind of looked different today. And so now, well, ArcG is definitely a very strong, you know, I would say stronger because of the infrastructure that it has for genomics. And certainly, Moderna helped that. And I do have a position in Moderna, which was looking very interesting today. But you have kind of a mixed message and I think a lot of the medical space. So sometimes it's not it's not conducive to go for the ETF.

19:16Alissa Coram:I think in a case of DRAM, that's fine. Right. DRAM looks like the leaders in the group. but in the medical space it feels like there's some of the individual stocks that look a lot better a lot different a lot stronger and so that's where you might say oh you know instead of getting an ETF here maybe I will kind of lean towards some of these individual stocks that look stronger and I think Biogen is right up there in terms of that you know retaking that buy point to me does make it actionable again I don't think you needed to wait for a new base here.

19:49Justin Nielsen:Okay, so it has the technical strength. What about the lumpy fundamentals, Justin?

19:55Alissa Coram:That is a concern, you know. And right now, you know, I think that you can be a little bit more picky. So I think Biogen has the benefit of certainly a lot of what I saw was the chip strength and everything like that. And, you know, AI strength. And so you kind of start getting to a point where, OK, I'm getting maybe a little bit too concentrated. concentrated. Yes, I might be in different groups, but if I'm in chips, AI, you know, all these, you know, data center, whatever, you know, you can be a little bit too exposed to AI. So I am looking for some other areas. Moderna, again, is one, but some other areas to kind of get not completely AI correlation, because you got to imagine, just like we saw with DeepSeek a few years ago, or even, you know, with news recently about AI destroying humanity, you're going to get a lot of those stocks, you know, getting hit at the same time when you have headlines like that.

20:53Alissa Coram:And that can be a little bit tougher.

20:53Justin Nielsen:I love how we just, you know, casually say that in a show now. But hey, humanity's had a good run. Well, Justin, you've also had a good run here at IBD celebrating your work anniversary today. hey, congrats, Justin. Everyone on YouTube, show Justin some love in the comments. You've been around the blog.

21:20Alissa Coram:29 years, if you can believe that. So yeah, started September 22nd, 1997. One of my first jobs out of college and started in customer service, taking delivery complaints. Didn't know a thing about the stock market. Was reading this second edition of How to Make Money in Stocks by Bill O 'Neill. And that's where I started.