Indexes Climb Off Lows After Soft Start; Viking, Equinix, Seagate In Focus

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0:39Ken Shreve:good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for tuesday march 3rd it's alissa quorum here and stocks climbed off lows today after a weak start some key levels as always to watch joining me now to break down the action in today's session is my colleague ken shreve ken what do you have for us today?

0:59Alissa Coram:Yeah, tough day for the market, but like you said, a nice close off lows. So we'll take a look at three stocks today. Nice earnings report from cruise line operator Viking Holdings, VIK. So we'll take a look at that. Data center operator, real estate investment trust, Equinix, EQIX. And then let's end by taking a look at data storage firm Seagate, STX, kind of toying with a break of the 50-day moving average here, STX. All right.

1:30Ken Shreve:Well, we will get to those stocks. But first, let's take a look at the major indexes with Iran-related headlines sparking volatility. And we did have the Nasdaq today closed down 1 % on the day off lows. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 down almost 1 % on the day. The Dow was down about eight-tenths of a percent. Here's the chart of that. And the Russell 2000, the laggard here today, down about 1.8 % or so. So there's the Russell 2000. So encouraging to see these moves off of lows, the damage could have been a lot, lot worse, Ken.

2:16Alissa Coram:Yes, we had a very, I think the losses in the Russell 2000, more than 3%. NASDAQ composite came down close to that 22 ,000 level. You can see that 200-day moving average for the NASDAQ is sitting really close to that round number of 22 ,000. So that should be a pretty good support level to watch for the NASDAQ. So it didn't quite get down that far, but it got down close and rallied off lows and ended up being another, unfortunately, another higher volume decline. So this is just more of the same where we're seeing a lot of higher volume declines in the NASDAQ. And we call that just plain old-fashioned distribution.

3:04Alissa Coram:And we saw more of it today. So the distribution day count for the NASDAQ is getting quite heavy. I was talking to my colleague, Dave Chung, and trying to remember a time where we've seen 10 distribution days on the NASDAQ. It's been a while. They've been clustering, but we've seen distribution days sort of pile up when we've seen the market acting week, and we're certainly seeing them pile up here. So we know the risk level is elevated, and And, you know, it's kind of a tough market right now. But, you know, market showed us for the second day in a row that there are buyers out there lifting the market off lows.

3:46Alissa Coram:And I thought it was encouraging today that even though the market, you know, was weak, very, very few sell signals. We're seeing very, very few sell signals in leading growth stocks. So that is something to kind of put in our back pocket here. You know, when you look at all the top performing growth stocks and all the big stock market leaders, just not really seeing any sell signals. So that's an underlying positive.

4:11Ken Shreve:Yeah, it definitely is. So you talked about 22 ,000 being level to watch for the NASDAQ in addition to that 200-day line. Let's talk about levels for the S &P 500. Ken, I do find it pretty interesting that 6800 has been a pretty notable area of support here. What do you say?

4:32Alissa Coram:Well, it undercut it today, and it definitely found support, and it was a really good shakeout, and it also recovered nicely off lows here. So, you know, David Ryan likes to talk about these shakeouts, and it was a really, really good shakeout today. The S &P 500, you can see, was really, really down sharply, and you got that shakeout today. So clearly, you know, clearly buyers in there today. We did get higher volume on the NYSE as well, so it's not showing up yet, but it is going to be higher volume on the NYSE. So it was a, you know, overall, again, it was a constructive session because we were able to, you know, pair these early losses.

5:26Alissa Coram:But still, it was a decline of almost 1 % for the S &P 500. And it is, you know, going to end up being a distribution day. So a lot of software stocks, you know, rallying today that we'll talk about. But, you know, IGB was that ETF that, you know, has been rallying off lows. So you've seen a lot of dead cat bounces in a lot of these beaten down security software stocks or just software stocks in general that have been really beaten down mercilessly. So a lot of these stocks were gainers in the S &P 500 today. So, you know, nice undercut by the S &P 500 today and just a good recovery off lows by the market today.

6:09Ken Shreve:Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay, next on our list, Ken, let's see what we want to take a look at. Let's take a look at oil and what's going on there. Because, of course, when you talk about war in the Middle East, a lot of times that's when you see oil really on the move. So USO, it does move in tandem with the price of oil here. We've seen some pretty big spikes as of late. Going over to the weekly chart here, on-market surge beta, might I add, maybe you all noticed that. Maybe you noticed that. So, so far for the week, up about 10%. That is a hefty move and clearing a lot of this sideways area.

6:54Ken Shreve:I can even zoom out for everyone. and draw a little line just to show this breakout there. Wow. And we're really doodling here now. I will undo the doodle.

7:09Alissa Coram:Yeah, undo the doodle. Yeah, big move for oil yesterday, and it was a really big move earlier in the session for oil today. It was up another 6%. It did close off highs a little bit today. And, yeah, we're still early in this new conflict with Iran, And, you know, the market's been had a lot of uncertainty to work through in recent months, whether it's the economy and then the Fed. And now we've got this new new layer of uncertainty on the geopolitical front and how long this this conflict is going to end and what it's going to do to oil prices. And if oil prices are going to stay high and how long this conflict is going to is going to go on.

7:53Alissa Coram:Is it going to be several weeks? Is it going to be a quick conclusion? So it's just another layer of uncertainty that the market's going to have to work through here. But obviously, higher oil prices and sustained higher oil prices is probably going to be a tough impediment for the market here. So obviously, we'd like to see oil prices calm down here. We'd like to see the situation between the U.S. and Iran start to calm down a little bit. But, you know, so this is a layer of uncertainty that the market's going to have to work through here. Obviously, higher oil prices is not typically going to be friendly for the stock market because it's typically going to translate to, you know, higher prices at the pump.

8:39Alissa Coram:And it could curb the economy and all these things. So I'd like to see the oil prices calm down here a little bit. But, you know, two big days of gains here. So we'll see how it eventually plays out.

8:56Ken Shreve:Yeah. And since it's such a headline-driven thing here, Ken, we've got to be very careful about playing these moves, right? Because one headline can change things in a snap.

9:12Alissa Coram:Absolutely. I mean, you can chase the performance among the oil and gas stocks, but we can see volatile price action in the oil and gas space very, very easily. So it's easy to kind of chase performance in the stock market. And some people will point to pretty good fundamentals in the oil and gas space. And there's probably money to be made there. But as always, you want to avoid chasing stocks that are just going up every day. And you just want to use rules when you're buying. And again, I think there's money to be made in the oil and gas patch, but you just don't want to be buying extended stocks.

9:59Alissa Coram:And just avoid buying the story stocks. So I think it's a good area to be looking in. But, you know, just got to just got to be careful. Don't buy extended.

10:11Ken Shreve:Well said. Well, gold is often seen as one of the flight to safety areas. But this is actually down on the day, Ken, by about four and a half percent. What do you make of the action in gold?

10:23Alissa Coram:Well, this is, yeah, this is where an area of the market that got hit in particular today. Gold stocks were some of the some of the worst performers. Gold bullion was down more than silver today. GLD, you can see, was down about 4.5%. After four up days in a row, this was really just a test of the 21-day moving average for GLD. But this is in the market surge, growth 250. We had some of our leading gold stocks today, some that were down 7%, 8%, 9%. So there was a lot of damage done in the gold space. And we're also going to look at FFTY, which has been a great performer recently. And FFTY took a big hit today.

11:10Alissa Coram:It's been a tremendous performer recently. FFTY was down almost 7 % today because this is very heavily weighted in gold stocks. So, again, a lot of these gold names that were down 5%, 6%, 7 % in one day were really a drag on FFTY. But, again, FFTY basically came down to what? It's on the daily chart came down to its 21 day line. I think it's been, you know, such a such a strong price performer. It looks like it below the 21 day. Yeah. So it's going to come down and maybe test come close to a test of the 50 day moving average. So gold stocks under a lot of pressure today with with gold with gold bullion.

11:50Alissa Coram:But you can see the run that FFTY has has been under. But it wasn't just wasn't just gold stocks today as well. semiconductor stocks, SMH, had a tough day as well. And again, distribution day for the NASDAQ SMH cuts below the 50-day moving average here. So, you know, kind of a tough day.

12:12Ken Shreve:Yeah, that's a notable move. Ken, we did see some prior moves below that 50-day line, the red line here for SMH and recoveries, but we did get a close below that level today. Will it recover like it had been doing previously? Or is this the beginning of a larger time off for the chips? We'll have to see a larger break.

12:39Alissa Coram:Down almost 4 % and a little volume picked up the pace in SMH, too. You can see it came in higher than Monday. So, you know, it was kind of a mixed session. It was encouraging to see that nice close off lows for the NASDAQ. But again, underneath the surface, there were some pretty big percentage declines in the growth space. Again, 50 down hard, SMH below the 50 days. So we'll have to just monitor the selling. We know we're dealing with a very elevated distribution day count indexes below the 50 days. So risk level is quite elevated out there. Yeah, we're encouraged that a lot of our big leaders are still holding above support levels and not seeing meaningful, you know, sell signals in leading stocks left and right.

13:28Alissa Coram:But, you know, definitely got to be cautious out there right now.

13:32Ken Shreve:All right. Well, with all that being said, let's take a look at three stocks to watch right now. Now, you mentioned earnings from Viking Holdings here, I believe, up 3.2 % on the day. Coming down to a test of that 50-day line, Ken, and some nice outperformance versus the broad market today. Harvard Business School Executive Education delivers breakthrough learning for leaders, stimulating classes led by faculty at the forefront of their fields, topics that will define the future of business, discussions that transform perspectives and ways of thinking, and access to the brightest business minds on the planet.

14:10Ken Shreve:Learn more at hbs.me slash breakthrough. That's hbs.me slash breakthrough.

14:18Alissa Coram:Yeah, it was a really volatile day for Viking yesterday. You can see it came down, fell sharply, came down and tested its 50-day moving average, closed off lows. We had to, this was a leaderboard stock. We had to trim the position headed into earnings after the drop yesterday. So we still held on to a portion of our position headed into the earnings report. We were pleased to see fourth quarter earnings and revenue accelerate from the third quarter. Really nice bottom line and top line growth. and we had a nice upside reversal above the 50-day moving average. And it actually reclaimed that prior buy point of 74-61 and moved into that 5 % buy zone.

15:11Alissa Coram:So we actually re-added to part of the position that we sold yesterday. So we just felt like it made sense to do that. So we re-added to the position today today and just we're very encouraged by the way the stock rallied back above the 50-day moving average. It was a really, really solid earnings report and just really bullish price action for Viking today. This is one of the elite stocks in the cruise line operator group. We heard from Royal Caribbean not that long ago. They didn't have such a great response to earnings, but Viking has just got a really consistent track record. They're mostly known for their riverboat cruises, but they do have some ocean vessels as well.

16:03Alissa Coram:But just a really, really solid earnings report and good reaction by the stock today.

16:10Ken Shreve:Yeah. And this is my first day, really. I just got back from maternity leave the other week. So my first day really playing around with MarketSurg Beta. So for IABD Live in the morning, we are going to get those earnings visualizations up on the screen. I'm still customizing and refining all of my setup here. So I have the RS line moving averages, but there's really great ways not only to see these different technical indicators, but all of the fundamental data that we are used to seeing as growth stock investors who really look at those fundamentals as well. And I know something that Webby has been excited about is the way that we visualize the earnings and lining it up quarter by quarter with the chart action to really see how those interplay together.

17:05Ken Shreve:And it's really fascinating. And that's how institutions look at earnings is with that across the bottom alignment. So I will be adding that to the chart. So stay tuned for IBD Live in the morning for that. More to come. All right. Next on the list, Ken, let's go to EQIX Equinix. And I'm going to go closer to the daily chart, but you can see that big move from a couple of weeks ago. It's hovering right around that 1000 level. So tell us more. Yeah, this is a real estate investment trust that basically leases data center space.

17:53Alissa Coram:They have a whole bunch of data centers that they operate around the country. Again, a real estate investment trust. It gives you a dividend yield of not huge, but it's a 2 % yield. and it is forming this big, huge cup with handle base. And you can see over the past two weeks after it gapped up above the 950 level, it has just drifted lower. So again, it's a little two-week pullback, but this has basically formed a handle just below the 1 ,000 price level. And it reversed higher today. And, yeah, here's this on the weekly chart. It's just been forming a handle for about, this is the third week.

18:44Alissa Coram:So I'm looking at this stock as a breakout candidate, just a big cup with handle base here. And we're just going to keep an eye on this stock for a possible breakout over the 1 ,000 level. So it's just really setting up beautifully here. Again, two weeks into a new handle. So by the end of this week, if it doesn't break out, the handle will be three weeks old. But really just a good example of how a handle sets up on a big cup with handle base here. Again, a real estate investment trust with a pretty good track record of earnings. Accumulation distribution rating of A minus. Look at the weekly chart.

19:26Alissa Coram:Look at those volume bars down at the bottom. And you can see a stock that's showing some pretty good signs of accumulation. some blue volume bars spiking up. So it looks to me like it's a stock that's under accumulation. Hasn't done much over the past several months, but it is setting up here and a stock that could try to break out here. And again, as a real estate investment trust that operates data centers, So it's not a bad business to be in. And I know they ran out space to Apple and a lot of other big hyperscalers. So not a bad business to be in and setting up here. So probably one to keep an eye on.

20:11Ken Shreve:All right. Next on the list, let's mosey on over to STX. This is Seagate Technology. Look at this monthly chart, Ken. very impressive breakout going back to early in 2025. We'll zoom in on the different time frames here. First, the weekly, we do have a violation of that 10-week line so far, but it is early in the week. So is this one where maybe if you've been trading this stock since that breakout area or maybe even bought on one of these pullbacks? Do you trim a little early in the week and then wait for your final decision to see if it can get support by the end of the week?

21:00Alissa Coram:Yeah, I think in my view, there are really two very important groups in the market here. You've got your data storage group, which is filled with your Seagate, Micron, Western Digital, and SanDisk. You're huge market leaders. When we're talking about big stock market leaders, you're talking about your data storage firms. Now, the other three stocks in this group, Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, they're all looking pretty good here. Micron is still holding above its 50-day. Really, all the other leaders in the group are still holding above support. Western Digital, getting near a test of the 50-day SanDisk, a little bit below the 21-day line.

21:44Alissa Coram:But I think it's interesting that Seagate is the first stock here that is actually kind of flirting with a break below the 50-day moving average here. So this is a pretty key support level to watch here. If you own the stock and you haven't done anything yet, you maybe don't need to be selling and headed for the exits here. But you want to watch how this test of support plays out here. So when a big leader starts to, you know, threaten a break of support like the 50-day moving average, this is, you know, possibly a sell signal. So you just want to pay attention to when a leading industry group in a market or when big leaders start to, you know, threaten a key support level like the 50-day.

22:30Alissa Coram:So it remains to be seen if the data storage stocks are ready to roll over. way too early to say that, especially with the other three still holding above support. But I do think it's interesting that a big leader like Seagate, which by the way, is probably when you look at Seagate in relation to the other three leaders in the group, this is probably the fourth best stock in the group. You have to look at SanDisk and Western Digital and Micron as probably the three best performers in the group. And Seagate, the fact that it's below the 50-day, It's probably the fourth best performer in the group.

23:04Alissa Coram:But the fact that it's a leading group in the market, number two ranked group, you want to pay attention to how the leaders in the group are acting. I'm also looking at the data storage group, just like the fiber optic group. So when you're looking at a name like Lumentum, L-I-T-E, or a name like Ciena, C-I-E-N, these stocks were under a lot of pressure today. But these are big leaders in the market. But, you know, Sienna just trading just below its 10-day moving average. So not seeing any sell signals in these leaders. LITE, Lumentum, in the number one ranked fiber optic group. LITE is another stock.