Indexes Jump Back Above Key Levels; Karman Holdings, Rocket Cos., Roku In Focus

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0:40Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Monday, January 5th. It's Alexis Garcia here, and the indexes jumped back above some key moving averages today. And there's a whole lot of news happening out there. We have the CES Tech Conference starting this week. And, oh, yeah, we had a whole little regime change happening in Venezuela, it seems like, over the weekend. But here with me to help break down everything you need to know and more about today's trading action is IBD Market Research Director Justin Nielsen. So, Justin, a lot's going on to start the first full week of trading in the new year.

1:22What do you have on tap for us today?

1:24Alexis Garcia:Yeah, just a lot of wow. Wow. There are a lot of stocks really moving strongly to start the first week of the new year. But we'll go over a few and we'll spend some time on sectors as well, because there's a lot of those that are looking interesting. So in the aerospace defense area, we'll take a look at Carmen Holdings. In the finance area, we'll take a look at Rocket. And for the leisure area, let's take a look at Roku. All right. Let's do that. But first, let's just check in. Oh, I do have a position in Rocket myself. All right. Thank you for the disclosures as well. Let's just go ahead and check in on how the major index is finished today.

2:00The S &P 500 up seven tenths of a percent. The big headline was the Dow breaking above, I believe, the 49 ,000 level, Justin, that today up about 1.3 percent. The Nasdaq up seven tenths of a percent. And small caps having a nice day up 1.7 percent. So let me go ahead and get my charts going here, Justin. But give me your thoughts so far on the market. We had mixed market on Friday, but a nice bounce today. I'll bring up the Dow because, as we mentioned, getting above this 49 ,000 level. Don't know if it really closed up there, but a key day there in the blue chip index.

2:45Alexis Garcia:Yeah, right now I'm showing that it closed just shy of the 49 ,000 level. But as you mentioned, it got up there. That's the first step, right? Now the next step is closing above it. And then beyond that, it's can you stay above it? But yeah, very interesting action for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, remember that Chevron CVX is one of the components that was up the most today. That was up over 5%, certainly helping that, you know, the Dow Jones Index as well. But it wasn't alone. You had Goldman Sachs with a really strong move today, up over 3.8, 3.7 percent. Let's call it three and a quarter.

3:23Alexis Garcia:And then also Cat with about a 3 percent move. So some really interesting action there. Let's go ahead and also mention honorable mention for Amazon, which is also up almost 3 percent. Not as strong as those others, you know, but, you know, it's still an inside day here. So muted, you know, muted excitement there. But the others, really strong, really strong moves. Yeah, and let's just check in on the S &P 500, Justin, because I think the story today with a lot of the indexes, we saw Friday either dipping below or flirting with the 21-day line. But today, I think all the major indexes really moved above that key short-term moving average.

4:07But again, this one closing the day up six-tenths of a percent.

4:09Alexis Garcia:Yeah, definitely a better close than what we saw on Friday, where there was a lot of interest in buying at the beginning of the session and not so much at the end. However, it's a reminder that there's a big, you know, there was a little bit of a disconnect between segments of the market. So on the mega cap side, let's just take a look at FNGS, for instance. That was not a great that was not a great Friday for this. And I would say a pretty muted recovery today. So that's on the mega cap side. But what was interesting is RSP, the equal weighted S &P 500, looked much stronger on Friday. I mean, that was a close at the top of its range on Friday.

4:51Alexis Garcia:A nice follow up to that action today. So as ugly as, you know, the close looked for the NASDAQ composite, the Qs and the S &P 500 for your average stock, which is what the RSP kind of shows, it was not so bad. It was really kind of a very decent day on Friday and a nice follow up today. You know, looking at the NASDAQ, again, a very mixed market there, even with that index, because on Friday you had SMH up a considerable amount and IGV just getting clobbered. So, you know, at the end of the day, that kind of ended up with a very mixed message in terms of the tech sector. IGV not getting much of a recovery today, but you had SMH do more than more than its share of the heavy lifting.

5:44Alexis Garcia:And there were a lot of other stocks that were helping the NASDAQ composite. But one of the things to mention with the NASDAQ composite is that still an inside day today. So that's something to just be aware of. An inside day, meaning that today's high and low are within Friday's high and low. So it's a little bit hard to get too excited. I do like that we got back above the 21-day moving average line and the 50-day moving average line. But that next step really is to see it cross Friday's high in a meaningful way. And as we said before with the Dow, to stay there. Yeah, let's go ahead and check in with small caps, Justin.

6:24Any thoughts here? Another strong day up 1.6%.

6:28Alexis Garcia:Well, certainly it looked very interesting that we got that bounce on the 50-day moving average line. Didn't quite get above the 21-day moving average line, but really kind of did it with gusto today. I do have a position in some of the Russell 2000 indexes, whether it's through a leveraged product. We did put UWM on Swing Trader today. I believe IWM was also added to leaderboard. And again, I do have a position in a few of these different markets. instruments, some futures, some ETFs as well. Right. Well, we talked about SMH. What about taking a look at XLE, Justin? That's the Energy Select Spider ETF.

7:09This went up 2.7 percent today, jumping above this 46-45 flat base. Yeah.

7:18Alexis Garcia:So, of course, as you mentioned, you know, big news out this weekend with Maduro, the president of Venezuela being captured and brought to the U.S. to stand trial. So the next big question, of course, Venezuela having a lot of oil reserves, but not much production because of some shoddy infrastructure and everything that's gone on over the last few decades. What happens with oil there? Now, there were a lot of some really big moves in the oil area. And it was one of those things where I was a little hesitant to say, oh, yes, this this is definitely what's going to happen, because I think that there's a lot of a lot of uncertainty with some of this.

7:59Alexis Garcia:Who are going to be the beneficiaries here? Certainly Chevron, CVX, as we mentioned, one of the big components of the Dow was also getting helped because they already have a presence in Venezuela. So this is one of the things that the assumption of more infrastructure investment there will benefit Chevron. You also got to remember, if you're going to do infrastructure, one of the areas to keep in mind is OIH, which is the Bannock Oil Services. So a lot of these companies are going to require services. So just a couple that come to mind are Halliburton, H-A-L, and SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger.

8:39Alexis Garcia:SLB is now just known as SLB. But yeah, these were both huge moves. And you did have some refiners as well. VLO sticks up quite a bit. That was up almost 10 % as it saw a big move. They do have, I think, operations in the Gulf of Mexico, which again, because of its proximity to Venezuela and the ability to kind of handle the sour crude that they produce, you know, that could be a potential beneficiary. We also, a leaderboard name that I'm just going to throw out there that was already looking very different from a lot of the other members of the oil and gas group, FTI, Technip FMC. That actually had a strong move on Friday and a nice follow-up move today.

9:28Alexis Garcia:So this one has already been trending above the 50-day moving average line, so in a very different position than a lot of the other stocks. And I would put VLO that we talked about kind of in that camp as well. It was already looking stronger as opposed to XLE, which, you know, had been just kind of going a lot of chop around its 50-day moving average line and 200-day moving average line. But certainly it's important to remember that ExxonMobil did have a very large presence in Venezuela and Chevron. Those are the two biggest members of XLE. And because of their market cap, together they have about a 40 percent weight in XLE.

10:09Alexis Garcia:But if you look at our SPG, that is the equal weighted of the energy ETF. That was no slouch today either, you know, up almost one and a half percent. So a lot of action there. Again, who are going to be the big winners? And, you know, you might look at the picks and shovels again, like with Halliburton and some of the equipment, you know, machinery and equipment makers. Chevron, certainly with their presence, maybe some refiners. But there could be some volatility there, right? You know, you have one day reaction. That's only a CBD situation, right? So I'm not sure, you know, I'm willing to stick my neck out there.

10:46Alexis Garcia:Oil and gas is a hard area anyway for me to trade. You know, it's not like you're going off of fundamentals here. You're going off of future prospects and there could be a lot of cross currents. So, you know, certainly be careful. Well, I know you and the IBD Live team covered this in depth this morning as well. And we clipped out that conversation. So if you all want some more analysis of oil and gas stocks in relation to the Venezuela news, we have a clip up on Investors.com where Justin and Ed Carson are going through some of these names as well. So, Justin, let's move on. Take a look at SLV.

11:25This was also moving today up 5%. And again, this one already pretty extended here. So thoughts here. Yeah.

11:34Alexis Garcia:I mean, look, this is still an area, the metals and mining still an area of strength. So if we look at XME and XME is one of those ETFs that I kind of love to hate because as great as this pattern looked, the thing that's tricky about this is XME is filled with such a mishmash of stuff. You've got coal in there. You've got copper. You've got steel. You've got gold. You've got silver. You've got, you know, it's just kind of a little bit of everything. And these are areas that don't necessarily move together. But right now, it seems like they are. So in addition to SLV, you've got GLD, gold, of course, that has been looking, you know, very strong, not as extended as SLV.

12:18Alexis Garcia:But you mentioned platinum. Platinum is a PLTM is one of the granite shares that had a strong day, up 5%, though well off of its highs. And look, SLX, you know, the steel, that's been making a move. You had some of the aluminum members. CENX was one that stuck out to me. I mean, look at how much of a move that's had. And our good old friend Alcoa AA, that was up considerably today, almost up 10%. So it's kind of like pick your metal. They're all doing very, very strong action. Let's also go ahead and give a nod to copper. You know, CPER is one that you can look at that there. That was up over 5 % today.

13:03Alexis Garcia:So, you know, sometimes, you know, with these things that are traded in dollars like oil, like gold and all of these things, the dollar being the international reserve currency and where, you know, how a lot of these things are traded, a strengthening dollar does help. So that is one component. But man, a lot of these just very, very strong moves in this area. A lot moving today. Let's take a look at XRT, Justin. That's the S &P Retail ETF. This one also a pretty good day, up 1.2%. And again, getting back above this key moving average here of the 21-day line. Yeah, and it's a nice little pattern, kind of breaking a downtrend in a handle.

13:46Alexis Garcia:So certainly worth keeping an eye on there. One of the stocks here, just to kind of, since we seem to be going through a little bit, it's maybe bonus section. Let's look at Ross Doors that kind of has a similar look here. ROST, this has actually had a nice trend above its 21-day moving average line and 50-day moving average line for a while here. And had a nice move on Friday, followed up today. So we also mentioned Amazon earlier. Yeah, there were a lot of stocks in this area that looked interesting. And again, that XRT itself looks like an interesting pattern. So whether you want to do a sector move just by going with one of these sector ETFs, that's one way to do it.

14:31Alexis Garcia:Or you can start picking out some of the favorites that you might have in that area, some of the strongest stocks. One of the ways to do that is you can look at the holdings of XRT and say, OK, what are the biggest weights here? and which stocks look like they have the best fundamentals, the best technical action. And you can go with one of the leaders of the group. All right. Well, we're not done with sectors yet. Let's look at ITA, Justin. That's the Aerospace and Defense ETF. This one jumping at 2 % today. Yeah. So this is, I do have a position in this myself. Really strong move. And yeah, you can throw a dart and find some really strong action here.

15:08Alexis Garcia:We will go over Carmen in a little bit. But, you know, GE Aerospace, certainly one of the areas that sticks out, kind of looks very similar to the ITA ETF because this is one of the larger components. Not RKT, RTX, formerly known as Raytheon. That was one that we covered on the SMT on Friday. Had a little bit of a follow-up move. And some of the other legacy ones, including like NOC, really jumping sharply. That's Northrop Grumman had a very nice day today. There were a lot of stocks in this area that were strong. So, again, I do have a position here. We have this on Swing Trader, but certainly some strong action lately.

15:51Yeah, and how about a look at JETS, Justin? That's the JETS ETF up 2.6%. Yeah.

15:58Alexis Garcia:Yeah. So whether you're looking at Delta Airlines, which has its earnings coming up shortly, DAL is the ticker on that. That was up 4 % today. You also have not in as good of a position, but still very strong got support at its top of its base was UAL. That was up about, you know, one and a half, one and three quarters percent. And AAL, United Airlines, I mean, not United, American Airlines, that was also getting support at its 21 day moving average. line. You know, again, a whole host of stocks in that area that are looking strong. Southwest Airlines, LUV, that was up two and three quarter percent today.

16:39Yeah, nice move there. Let's take a look at KBWB, Justin. That's the KWEB Bank ETF. Again, financial is also doing well today. It's again, as you could say, you throw a dart. There was some strong action today, a 2.4 percent gain here today.

16:55Alexis Garcia:Yeah. And Goldman Sachs that we already talked about and one of the Dow components, that was having a great day. That was up three and three quarters percent. Morgan Stanley right up there with it. It was a two and a half percent move. J.P. Morgan, you know, again, you name you name a bank and a lot of those were having great moves today. Two point six percent for J.P. Morgan Bank of America. You know, that was a more muted one in you know, 1.6%. So yeah, there was a lot of strength there in the bank area. BAC was Bank of America. Yeah, so yeah, a lot of strength in that area. KBWB is one of the ways that I like to play it.

17:33Alexis Garcia:You get a lot of the benefits that you would get from XLF, which is the financial sector spider ETF, but without kind of the drag that has lately been, you know, Berkshire Hathaway as they start transitioning away from Warren Buffett as the head guy there. So Berkshire BRKB has been a little bit less stellar on the relative strength side, a little bit more choppy lately. And that is a big component of XLF. So KBWB gets you access to a lot of those without the drag of Berkshire. And we just got one more. Let's take a look at IBIT, the Bitcoin Trust ETF. Jeff, Justin, this one jumping today about 5 percent and again, getting its way back to this 50 day moving average.

18:19Alexis Garcia:Yeah, I'll be interested to see how it handles itself here. You know, whether it can get back above that 50 day. Not anything I'm doing anything with, but it is interesting that it's, again, back up at that area that would be resistance or could be evidence that we're breaking that downtrend. And I also like that line that you drew, Alexis, at$5 ,372, because we're right on the cusp of crossing that line as well. So it'll be an important inflection point to watch. And personally, I always turn to Jim Ropel when I have crypto questions. He does run a crypto hedge fund, and he will be on our monthly market report basically when we get finished here.

18:57Yeah, I love when things work out. But yes, definitely tune in after today's show right on our YouTube channel. We will have monthly market report with Jim Ropel. And I'm sure you all will break down a lot of the moves here with Ibit and more. Well, Justin, I guess it's...

19:15Alexis Garcia:Not quite time, you know, because I wanted to just real quickly do SMH one more time because of the strength there. Yeah, let's do it. And because we mentioned a few stocks with each of these, a few that I wanted to mention here included FormFORM. That is, this semiconductor equipment area was something that we were talking a lot about. So you had a breakout here on FormFactor. A.E.I.S. was an area was it was a stock also that was breaking out today in the same group, you know, closed off of its highs. But then you also have some stocks that we've been keeping a close eye on lately with KLAC. That's yeah, that that had a strong move up six and a half percent today.

19:59Alexis Garcia:And LRCX, which has actually been trending for quite a while. This is a stock that's been on the leaderboard model portfolio for a while. And so just extending those gains, this one is up and out of there. But again, just kind of shows you how there was a lot of strength in this area. We should also mention on SMH that NVIDIA, the Jensenbog. I was going to say, NVIDIA, we've got a CES keynote going on right about now. Not doing too much here after the close, Justin, but again, really at these key levels here of this 50-day line. Yeah. And AMD will be having a talk later on after the market hours, after extended market hours.

20:38Alexis Garcia:So just something to be keeping an eye on and seeing if there's any reactions to those talks later on today or tomorrow. Today we helped a coffee shop get an insurance quote simply and easily and made sure a floral delivery van was able to make someone's day. We're the Hartford, with decades of experience insuring millions of unique small businesses. When it comes to your small business insurance, one size absolutely does not fit all. Get a quote or find an agent today at thehartford.com slash smallbusiness. All right, well, let's finally get to Carmen Holdings here. As if we didn't cover enough stocks, right?

21:24We're giving you everything today. This went up over 9 % today, breaking above this cup with handle 81 pivot point.

21:34Alexis Garcia:Yeah, so this is one that did get added to leaderboard today. Ken Shreve initially put this on my radar. He actually had a nice move in this over the summer and through October. This base that it had a little bit deep, 38%, and not a great move after its last earnings report, although it did close well off of its lows on that ugly day, you know, where it gapped down, you know, and it kind of settled down after that and started rounding out. But yeah, your classic cup with handle here. And this one has some fundamental chops as well. Look at that earnings growth from, you know, 67%, 233%, 150%.

22:14Alexis Garcia:You know, it was unprofitable back in 2022. You can see that on the annual side, but we got the profits 2023, and it looks like some pretty stellar profits estimated going forward as well. You know, it's okay if something isn't triple digit for very long, but, you know, the estimates for 2025, like almost 200 % for 2025, that'll kind of be wrapped up with this quarter that just ended. But 2026, not looking too bad at 56%. So has the fundamental chops. The group has been stellar. Again, 50 out of 197 in terms of the industry groups where it stacks up in the last six months for its relative strength.