Indexes Stretch Gains; Astera Labs, Urban Outfitters, Wheaton In Focus

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0:25Justin Nielsen:Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Monday, July 21st. It's Alyssa Coram here. And the NASDAQ and S &P 500 extending their gains in today's session. But some stocks finished better than others. And joining me now to discuss the action in today's session is my colleague, Justin Nielsen. Justin, what do you got for us?

0:46Alissa Coram:Yeah, that's quite the understatement. Even the indexes were well off their highs. But still, again, a gain is a gain. So we can't complain too much. We've got a few stocks for you to look at, though. A-Lab was a big winner today. Astera Labs, ticker symbol ALAB. So we'll look at that. Urban Outfitters, extending gains, kind of looking at a breakout potential. And gold, hey, it's still the shiny one. And we're going to take a look at WPM, Wheat and Precious Metals, which has a little bit of gold and silver.

1:17Justin Nielsen:Sounds like a plan, Justin. We'll check in on those stocks. But first, let's take a closer look at the major indexes today. Somewhat of a mixed session. And as you said, finishing off highs with the NASDAQ up four tenths of a percent by the close. We do have a lot of updates in a row here. We've been talking about how extended we've been getting, but still holding in this power trend. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 up a little more than one tenth of a percent on the day. You can see the fade there as well. The Dow finished lower here by just a hair. This chart slightly delayed, but the Dow down fractionally.

1:53Justin Nielsen:and the Russell 2000, down about four tenths of a percent headed into the final stretch. The Nasdaq, clearly the leading index here, Justin. What do you make of how we've started the week here?

2:06Alissa Coram:Well, look, we've got a lot of days up in a row. And as we mentioned on the Friday Stock Market Today video, we've got a lot of weeks up, not in a row necessarily, but certainly more up than down. And even the down weeks haven't been that bad. So with that context, having a little bit of just, you know, flat action isn't necessarily a bad thing. And I mean, again, at the end of the day, a gain is a gain. And we did see still some progress in these stocks, a little disappointing, again, compared to where they were earlier in the day, but not a disaster. We have pretty low distribution day count right now.

2:45Alissa Coram:And so, you know, even if you get a stalling day here or there, typically what we've been seeing so far is, I mean, look at the stalling day we had just last week. Stalled, came in a little bit. We got the weakness the next day, as you would expect, but then right back at it and to new highs the very next day. So, you know, stalling, nothing really seems to be slowing this market down. Headlines aren't doing it. Chart action, you know, those stalling days aren't doing it and distribution isn't really there to be seen. Very few sell signals. So it's a fairly healthy market that's trending.

3:20Justin Nielsen:Yeah. And we'll have to see how some of the big earnings reports over the next couple of weeks shape the action. But Justin, what I think is tricky about the current market environment is you have two sort of, I don't know, conflicting signals here. One is we have this strong, powerful uptrend, the power trend. That's the time where you do want to be getting more aggressive. But at the same time, it's been a little while at this point since we've paused. So in terms of timing of new buys, like the fade today, you know, if you were aggressive at the open in some instances, one, which we will look at, it definitely paid off in a big way.

3:59Justin Nielsen:But in other instances, you are at risk to those pullbacks. So I guess it just comes down to risk management and really picking your spots because both scenarios can unfold. Being aggressive can pay off, but we are getting a little bit of that extension, as we've mentioned.

4:16Alissa Coram:No, absolutely. And to your point, yes, the power trend is when we want to get a little bit more aggressive, but we want to do that early on, right? We don't want to be like,

4:26Justin Nielsen:press the gas moments, right? That we talked about.

4:29Alissa Coram:We've been trending above the 21-day moving average line for more than 50 days. So to say, let's get aggressive now, I mean, that's a little late. We've been talking about that for a while, again, since the power trend started, which was in May. So it's I feel like now is a little bit more time of more of that coasting where you just kind of let your positions develop and extend. You know, you might be doing some tweaking here and there if you're a position trader. But for the most part, a lot of the stocks have already broken out and they are extending their gains and continuing to go. So if you have a bad day here and there, even a day where you don't finish that great off the highs, that's not a disaster in the overall trend.

5:14Alissa Coram:And this is why sometimes taking that step back to the weekly can help you not just with the indexes, but with the individual stocks as well.

5:21Justin Nielsen:No doubt. And in terms of those points where we do want to get aggressive, I feel like we hammered home the point of the pullbacks that you do get to the 21 day line. And we did have that in your mid to late June timeframe here. So the 23rd and 24th of June, we were saying in real time, if you're gonna press the gas in a power trend, that really is the time to do it. So as you said, now we can ease off of the gas pedal for the most part and just enjoy the gains that we've been making, like you said, with some tweaks here and there.

5:59Alissa Coram:Absolutely. And that's where compounding comes in, right? So some very small gains here in your stocks, if you've got a lot of cushion on them, it just compounds out and really kind of can do a big number on your overall portfolio gains for the year. And you make a great point, Ali, that pull back to the 21 day moving average line. Again, those reversals are kind of times where you can get a little bit more aggressive and, you know, choose your choose your spot there, especially when you see the follow up like you did the very next day back to high ground. It's kind of like a nice confirmation that, yes, this reversal was was, in fact, a chance for more participants to get in and and or press the gas themselves.

6:43Alissa Coram:So you're in good company there.

6:45Justin Nielsen:Yes. OK, let's get quick thoughts on the S &P, Justin.

6:49Alissa Coram:So one of the big things we talked about last week was the fact that we had that July 3rd high where, you know, arguably we were starting to get extended at that point. We went sideways and that sideways action is good, right? It allows for some handles to develop, some shelves to develop, some more patterns to develop in individual stocks. And we basically came out of that, you know, a little 10 day, two week consolidation out into new high ground. And so far we are holding it. I mean, look, it wasn't a great day Friday. You know, it wasn't like we were banging the doors off the index. It was flat, though.

7:24Alissa Coram:So at least holding the gains. And even today, even though we lost a lot of the gains from the intraday highs, the fact that we still, you know, close positive, we're still holding above that level, I think, is a positive. If you start dipping back below there, it just might mean this needs a little bit more time to consolidate and digest the gains that it's had. But so far, it does seem to be holding above that July 3rd high.

7:46Justin Nielsen:Yeah. And then we have that reversal day low from midweek last week with that temporary Fed scare that the market shook off quickly. That coincides with the 21-day moving average. We're about 1.6 % above that level for the S &P. just to give our audience a little frame of reference there. Let's also go to blue chips and small caps. Justin, here's the Dow.

8:10Alissa Coram:Yeah, so the Dow, it's still kind of in that little consolidation phase. But again, still trending above the 21-day moving average line. Got support there last week, spiked up from there. And so again, not doing anything wrong. Certainly not the leading index right now. That is obviously the NASDAQ where a lot of the AI lives and the AI adjacent and so on. But Dow holding in there just fine. And the Russell 2000, probably the weakest of the bunch. But, you know, it's still got above that 2200 level. It also got that support at the 21 day moving average line. It's holding it so far, but not quite getting into that recent high ground like the NASDAQ and S &P 500.

8:52Alissa Coram:So if you're going to be putting your money somewhere, it's usually best to go with where the strength is. And right now that's the NASDAQ and S &P.

9:01Justin Nielsen:Any ETFs you want to quickly check in on before those three stocks?

9:05Alissa Coram:Well, we will talk a little bit more about it. But the winner of the day, if you just kind of look at the, you know, the sector spider ETFs, the winner of the day was XLC, which is your communications. You know, that is that's not looking bad. And of course, Meta and Alphabet are the two big components there. We did talk about both of those on IBD Live this morning. So those are certainly worth taking a look at. Meta getting back above its 21-day moving average line. And look, we would be remiss not to remind folks that earnings season is upon us. We've got a couple hundred stocks in the S &P 500 that we'll be reporting over the next couple weeks.

9:46Alissa Coram:And so if you haven't checked it out already, Alexis Garcia and Ed Carson do a wonderful job of giving that earnings cheat sheet every Friday. So make sure you check that out.

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10:38Justin Nielsen:And this is a chart pattern we've been following very closely in recent months, kept bumping its head up against that 100 level. But I guess, Justin, that makes it even more of a compelling resistance level to watch if and when it does clear that level. We did also point out potential early entries in Thursday and Friday of last week as it started to move. But understandable if traders didn't want to strike at that point since its personality up until today was to keep chopping around in this range. But we did see an explosive move today. This was the first stock that we covered on IBB Live, and it really got going throughout the day up 19 % by sessions close.

11:23Alissa Coram:Yeah, and sometimes a lot of folks were asking, what's going on with A-Lab? What is causing it? We didn't know, but sometimes the chart is telling you something is happening. And this was actually on the short list of stocks to cover on Friday. we went with toast on that day, but you know, a lab deserved a, an honorable mention because in a very similar way as toast, it was hitting its head up the same level, you know, over and over and over again. And sometimes you think, oh, well, there's just, you know, forget it. I've already tried it so many times. It's not working. You know, and eventually it does, right.

11:57Alissa Coram:It's like when you finally do throw in the towel, that's when it works. So would you have chased it off this gap up, I think, you know, that depends on how, how your risk management rules, you know, fall. If you are comfortable buying a gap and you know, okay, look, I'm going to maybe give it to the lows of the day. That's one way you could play it. Especially if you waited to see that first, you know, five minute bar. Okay. It's, it's, it's a good first five minute bar. It did pull back, but it held above the lows of the day. And then it, you know, made some more progress. So it held above those lows, gave you a chance to get in it.

12:32Alissa Coram:Look, you weren't going to be getting all of the appreciation from 100 to 120. But it also look, it was, as you mentioned, an early entry possibility last week. And if you are okay with trying something at not working, trying it again at not working, as long as you're making your losses really small, you can still try something multiple times. And that one time it does work can make up for all those small little losses. And they usually don't go up this much in a single day. This usually takes a few weeks to develop like this, but still it can be well worth it to try things more than once. We've had so many of our traders, so many of our guests that talk about that.

13:17Alissa Coram:Just recently, Eve Bobak was on the IBT Live show talking about how she did that with CoreWeave. It was not until the third time that it worked for her. But when it worked, it was magic.

13:27Justin Nielsen:It really worked. Exactly. And I think the other reason why we're paying close attention to this is not only the fact that it's in a really nice theme here, Justin, because it has had some sloppy action compared with some of the leaders in this fabulous semiconductor group, if you're comparing the chart action to your NVIDIA or to Broadcom. But the fact that this stock has triple digit growth on the top and bottom lines, I think That was sort of the reason why, okay, maybe the current chart action, again, before today, isn't your A1 top tier leader in the group. But look at these fundamentals.

14:06Justin Nielsen:When we saw NVIDIA go on its big move a couple of years ago, one of the things that we were noticing was this huge, huge triple digit growth. ALAB has that. Yeah.

14:19Alissa Coram:And it's an important point because we talk so much about charts here. it can be very easy for folks to remember that a lot of times it does start with the fundamentals and ALAB certainly has them in spades. And you make a good point. Like, look, the relative strength was not really there. It wasn't a broken stock by any chance, but with all these stocks that were going up so much, one could be forgiven for not being as excited about this stock that was, you know, not moving. You know, why would you necessarily say, oh, my money deserves to be in a spot where it's been stagnant for a while. But again, sometimes there is sector rotation.

14:55Alissa Coram:Some stocks take their turns. So again, I wouldn't blame anyone for passing on this one. But I also think that with proper risk management tools, you could have easily gotten into this one and gotten a little bit out of it. As a counterpoint, I didn't play this one today. I played IREN, talked about that on IBD Live. That one did not work out so well. It was very good at the start. really stretched its gains. I think I was up, you know, well over 10 % on the position that I bought that morning, but then it really started coming in. So remember, you don't have to wait for something to come all the way back when you've got a strong gain like that.

15:35Alissa Coram:You don't have to wait for it to come all the way back. You can start looking at some of these higher levels that, you know, either, you know, just below that 21 where it can kind of got some support and then broke under it, or even there was that important level where it really tried to kind of bounce, you know, just above 19. When it failed there, that was kind of another opportunity to say, okay, well, maybe this isn't working. Or look, if you are still thinking that this is the Bitcoin and everything like that is okay, it's okay to hold it as long as again, you have your risk management rules in place.

16:10Alissa Coram:And you don't you don't deviate from those rules. Yeah.

16:13Justin Nielsen:All right. Well, a bonus stock for everyone there. Let's go to Urban Outfitters, Justin.

16:18Alissa Coram:Yeah. So of course, if you have a teenage daughter, you probably are very aware of this store. And look, even if you don't have a teenage daughter, they've got the anthropology. They've got free people. They've got Urban Outfitters. They've got a little something for everybody. And not only that, but they have something for the chart readers here as well. As you mentioned before, let's just take a quick look at the fundamentals. Those are some very solid double digit earnings growth numbers after some triple digit last year. Still very solid at double digit, a little mediocre on the sales earlier, but those are ramping up to double digits.

16:55Alissa Coram:So 10, 11 percent, not huge, but this is off of some big, you know, these aren't small numbers, right? This is over a billion in sales each quarter. So that's pretty impressive. I do have a position in this, by the way. I actually got into this last week as an early entry, as did Swing Trader. But a nice follow up move today. So for those that were actually already in this, this was an opportunity to add to your position. Sometimes those early entries, you can give an ad and that's a nice, nice way to increase your position and exposure to something that's working. Yeah. And you mentioned the anthropology brand, which it's clothing, but also home goods.