S&P 500 Rises But Hits Resistance; Marvell, Woodward, BWX Technologies In Focus

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0:39good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today it is wednesday march 25th i can't believe we're already near the end of the first quarter my name is ken shreve and on today's show we're going to talk about another update for the stock market i'm going to be joined in a little bit by our news editor, Ed Carson, who's going to talk about, again, another update for the stock market. We're waiting for some resolution to this conflict with Iraq. But let me bring on Ed right now, who has got three stocks to watch for today. Good afternoon, Ed. Yeah, still waiting on Iran news, but one, Marvell, Woodward, and BWX Technologies.

1:24There's three stocks worth looking at. All right. All right. Well, we do have a lot of uncertainty in this market. Major stock indexes in day three of a rally attempt and a lot of good action underneath the surface. Still seeing a lot of good individual stock action out there. So let's take a look at the major stock indexes here. And we'll start with that Russell 2000 small cap index, which outperformed today. And we'll take a look at our new market surge charts here and see that Russell 2000. It looks like it ended with a gain here of about 1.2 % for the Russell 2000 today. And day three of a rally attempt closed right at the 21-day moving average here.

2:15Let's take a look at the NASDAQ composite, Ed. Rest of the market here, Ed, and I'll just get your take here because NASDAQ composite was up, I think, 1.5 % today. Not such a great close for the composite here. Tried to close above that 22 ,000 level here and, you know, not such a great close for the composite today. Yeah, well, the small caps closed in the high end of its range. But the NASDAQ and S &P 500 have closed low in their range for the last four days. I mean, that's not a great sign for a rally attempt that the big gains. I mean, you could say the average true range was better because they popped up.

2:58So it's, you know, but nonetheless, fading from there, the NASDAQ, the S &P and Dow hitting resistance at the 200-day line. I do think that obviously that's not a great sign for a rally attempt. We could have a follow-through day tomorrow. We could blast in, you know, there's a good chance if we had one, we'd be at least on the S &P or Dow, we'd be going above the 200-day line in that situation. But even if we were technically strong on the indexes, there'd still be the wariness. You just don't know what the headline is going to be. At any moment, there could be a headline. There could be a tweet.

3:29There could be a rumor that sends the market down sharply. It can go the other way, too, but you just don't know. And you don't know if that whatever move you get will stick. And it just makes it very difficult to buy on strength, to buy on weakness, to buy on anything in that environment. But like you say, there is strength underneath. Small caps are doing well or at least better. There are a number of stocks that are setting up. So you've got to stay engaged. You don't know when this will turn around. There are a lot of potential buying opportunities when we get better. But, man, it's tough out there.

4:03Yeah, you can see that S &P 500, like you said, getting resistance at that 200-day moving average. And we'll take a look at that Dow Jones industrial average as well. Wasn't up as much as the Russell 2000, but the Dow Jones industrial average also getting some resistance at that 200-day moving average. So still in the early attempt here of a rally attempt and earliest we could get a follow through day would be tomorrow, but still a lot of uncertainty in the headlines between the U.S. and Iran. Ed, Iran keeps saying there are no discussions going on between the U.S. and Iran. It's really hard to understand what conversations, if any, are going on between the two countries.

4:55No, it could be just, this is me just completely speculating. So I don't know anything, but it could be indirect talks. So both sides could claim what they're claiming and technically be true. We'd also don't know, let's say talks are really going underway, but they could break down. We don't know. You know, we just don't know how things are going to go. So it's just going to see that volatility until we get a real resolution, not, hey, that's promising. It's just a tough situation when you're waiting on news and rumors. And, you know, so we've gotten this bounce. But if those rumors don't come true, there's no reason why we could easily head lower again very quickly, almost immediately.

5:35Like if the White House concedes, we don't have any talks going on. We're going to send in ground forces. I mean, I don't know how things will go, but you can imagine how the market might react negatively, at least to start to that. So, you know, it's just we don't know. You're basically doing roulette to a certain extent in markets like that. It's like the market has continual earnings reports where you don't know what's going to happen, you know, an hour later. Yeah, yeah. Well, here's a look at the equal-weighted R.S.P. with the S &P 500, again, up a half a percent on the day. and the RSP equal weighted ETF.

6:17That was up, well, it was actually about, looks like it was flat on the day. No, it wasn't flat. Let's see here. That was up a little bit, but I noticed breadth early in the day was very, very good, but it did get worse as the day wore on. It was about four to one positive on the NASDAQ, five to one positive very, very early in the session. Towards the end of the day, it was less than two to one positive on the NASDAQ. And on the NYSE towards the end of the day, yeah, it was maybe just a little better than two to one positive on the NYSE. And then the equal weighted QQQE, take a look at that today.

7:07And that was also, yeah, a little bit positive as well. Oil prices today, market benefited from that. We had oil prices lower and a little bit of relief in that 10-year treasury yield. Ed, obviously, the market is moving on. Oh, yeah, sure. Go back to USO. Just on USO, you can see how we closed well off lows. And USO is something that's an ETF, and that's really closing at 4 p.m. So oil prices fell 2 % the futures, but I think that actually got even less from the perspective of 4 p.m. Eastern. So, again, as oil prices came off low, stocks came off highs. It's not that complicated, really. So that was on that.

7:51Treasury yields, though, actually held a lot of their declines. So that was nice to see because they were at multi-month highs heading into today. So that was a little bit of relief. But obviously, that has run up quite a bit. Yeah. Yeah, let's look at that 10-year treasury yield, which was down all day, and that was down about six basis points, down to around 4.33%. Big news in the semiconductor space today with arm holdings, a big gain for arm holdings. Not much movement in the VanEck semiconductor ETF. ARM Holdings made a big, big gain today, but this SMH getting some resistance at the 50-day moving average.

8:44The news on ARM, this is a chip designer that collects royalties on its chip designs, but pretty big news from ARM today. Let's just pull up a chart of ARM holdings getting into the CPU market with a chip all its own. So kind of a whole new business venture for ARM holdings today. And I'll also add that AMD and Intel are solid performers. There's reports that they're raising prices on their CPUs. Obviously, we're going to look at Marvell. That was one of the big winners. That was one of the best-looking charts. On the downside, there was memory plays that were weak, though they closed off lows.

9:25So mixed day, but I would say SMH isn't that bad. That is one way because a lot of things are out of position. They're extended or they're very volatile. SMH, if it could punch through the 400 level and the 50-day line, I think that would be something that you could say, well, if I wanted to nibble on chips, that is one way to do it. I mean, you know, because it just reduces the risk a little bit, but I don't want to make it certainly not a safe thing to do. But that would be one way to play it. Yeah. So just like the NASDAQ S &P 500 getting some resistance at the 200-day moving average, SMH getting some resistance at the 50-day moving average.

10:05And we did see some health care outperformance today and biotechs definitely in that basket of health care stocks that outperformed XBI. Still below its 50-day moving average, but a really nice gain for XBI today. It was one of the best performing groups in our database. So maybe a little bit of defensive positioning for the market today. saw a couple of healthcare names really outperforming well in the Dow Jones today, but biotechs did quite well today. Yeah, so nice to see that. Maybe if XBI can get above the 50-day line, that would be something for new buyers, but that has held up reasonably well.

10:48This episode is brought to you by Indeed. Stop waiting around for the perfect candidate. Instead, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs to find the right people with the right skills fast. It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate C. According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs have four times more applicants than non-sponsored jobs. So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a$75 sponsored job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Right. Well, let's take a look at a technical breakout today. I haven't seen many of those, and it has been a pretty difficult environment for technical breakouts lately.

11:28But, you know, when you get in a confirmed uptrend, it tends to be when the market tide is flowing positive. You tend to see breakouts work a little better. But let's take a look at Marvell Technology Group. This is tracked in the same industry group as NVIDIA and Broadcom. But look at Marvell. This was a nice higher volume gain here, close near highs. Nice looking technical breakout here for MRVL. Yeah, there's a double bottom base. I think the handle at 9 ,505 is the real buy point, but that's close enough the same way. Probably yesterday was the best day to buy it because, as you say, technical breakouts are tough because when you rise for one or two days and the run roll over, the moment you get any real strength, the market's probably going to turn over and it just makes it hard for those breakouts to work.

12:18But you could have still bought this today, especially early on as it cleared that buy point. showing strength, the relative strength line is moving up there. It's not at a 52-week high, but it hit a consolidation high. I think it's really close to a 52-week high. I mean, so that was strong performance there. You know, it held up very well and tightly. Going on weekly, it basically had a three-weeks tight or close to it, not quite a three-weeks tight, but traded tightly on a weekly after a strong earnings gap because it would have been like, ah, it was an earnings gap. I'm not sure. The war is starting.

12:54Can it really hold after that? It did. I mean, it did. And now it's moving out. So really nice action this week. It's already up 12%. So you might decide, well, maybe it can pull back and that would be an opportunity. But it's definitely one to watch. That's the thing. Even if you don't buy it, you want to be paying attention to these stocks that are showing relative strength. And this is definitely one of them right now. Yep, good relative strength line poking into new high ground here as well. Let's look at Marvell Technology, aerospace and defense stocks. I know we're going to take a look at an earnings report after the close, but let's take a look at another setup in the market here.

13:38This is a name called Woodward, WWD, kind of floating right at its 10-week moving average here. We'll take a look at, let's go to the daily chart first here and see the stock holding support at the 50-day moving average. Computer's a little slow today. Sorry about that. But here's support holding so far at the 50-day moving average. And the stock is in a little seven-week consolidation. So another top-rated stock in our database and one of many leaders in the aerospace and defense group. Yeah. And this one, you know, it just got above the 21-day line. I think maybe if it got just a little more strength than you could probably use it as an early entry from the 50-day line in this environment.

14:27The RS line isn't at a high, but it's basically been trading at highs ever since, you know, for quite a while now, honestly. But it popped up on earnings and has been sort of moving sideways. Earnings and sales growth are accelerating for several quarters now. So just a lot of strength in this name. You know, it's holding up pretty well here. And, you know, it's close to moving averages. So definitely one that people should be paying attention to quite a bit here. Very good. That is Woodward in the Aerospace and Defense Group. And then the final stock today is going to be kind of in the nuclear area.

15:11Let's take a look at BWXT, I think is the symbol here, BWX Technologies. Yeah, and I don't know why this made the big move today, but it did. And, I mean, there were some – I mean, obviously, it was an update in the market, but this really moved. It broke out. This was another technical breakout. I think you could have bought this as it went above the short-term highs. It was almost going to be a handle. It was going to be sort of an odd-looking situation, but it was like this is one day from a handle. So right in there, probably could have bought it. you know, and, but even here, it's still moving well.

15:50It's a base next to a prior base. RS line is getting close to, you know, or is it highs? So, you know, nice action all around. Yeah. So blue dot showing a lot of, yeah, it went up so much. I wasn't sure. Is that really the line? And it was, because, you know, that's a pretty, that's a really powerful move. Again, there's always a concern is now it's moved up. It's broken out. I think it would have been nicer to get the entry as it moved out there. But this is one that's, you know, a lot of this last year, there was a lot more speculative stuff out there. This one actually does stuff. This one actually has earnings.

16:25You know, it's consistently profitable. It's a real company. And, you know, it seems like it's going to do well as in a nuclear renaissance. So, again, acting well, showing strength in definitely an uneven market. Yeah, we were watching this name, Dave Chung and myself, for the leaderboard model portfolio and just trying to be disciplined and just realizing that we're still early in a rally attempt here. But this is a stock that's got a lot of qualities that we want to see. We held off and just going to kind of wait for the market to prove itself a little more. We weren't really entirely keen on the close for the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ today.

17:13So we are encouraged, certainly, by the number of positive action in growth stocks below the surface. So let's take a look at Carmen after the close today and see how that stock is trading. It was trying to break out of a cup with handle base this week. Kind of a not great action today. It did reverse lower. And it looks like the stock is down a little bit in after hours. Are you seeing a lot of activity in after hours? It's wavering. Earnings were in line. The revenue was up a fraction versus views. It was up 47%. But the guidance was pretty good on revenue. But it's not really doing anything right here.

17:59It was a disappointing action. Obviously, it was head of earnings. But a lot of space docs rallied. A lot of them came off highs, but a lot of them had strong gains in reaction to news that SpaceX is likely to go, you know, file for its IPO this week. But Carmen, you know, initially rose, but didn't hold that gain. So it was a little disappointing. But, yeah, obviously earnings were coming up. And we'll see how, you know, how people react to it. Will people, you know, be disappointed by the inline results or be, you know, be pleased by the guidance? but yeah so it'd be nice if we could hold the 50-day line at least or stay in the neighborhood there but definitely this is a this has been a very strong stock it's volatile has a pretty high ATR a lot of space stocks do but what's nice about this one is that the breakout and the 50-day line aren't that far apart so if this one does break out it's not like this is like all right it's already 15 20 percent above the 50-day line you know for a volatile name I think that's really nice to see because it would be a little bit safer in that regard.

18:57But right now, just wavering. Okay, very good. Let's look at Carmen again. Reversed lower during the regular session, down just a little bit. Apparently, the guidance was pretty good. So, we'll see how that one opens up tomorrow. So, that is going to do it for today. Ed, as always, appreciate your insight. Thank you very much. Thank you, Ken. We'll see you next time. All right. That's going to do it for today. Allie will be back tomorrow. She's filling in for Justin on the podcast today, so thank you for bearing with me, and we will see you back here tomorrow. Rachel Fox will have you cover tomorrow morning on IBD Live.

19:47She'll be in the host chair tomorrow. On Friday, we are going to be welcoming coming back Joe Fahmy as a guest on IBD Live, a very popular guest. If you haven't joined us for IBD Live, just go to investors.com forward slash IBD Live. You can check out the show for a two-week trial, so be sure to join us. Until then, we'll see you back here tomorrow for another Stock Market Today video. Have a great rest of the day, everyone. Take care. Bye-bye.

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