Stocks Jump As Trump Touts Iran Deal: SiTime, Krystal Biotech, Howmet In Focus

0:00Look, when people start to gamify investing, right? So when you think about people being rewarded with balloons and fireworks for trading, which we know is the more you trade, the worse offer you're going to be in the long run. I'm Joe Davis.

0:12Ken Shreve:And I'm Christine Kashkari. And this is Season 2 of Better Vantage by Vanguard, an eight-part video podcast series hosted by custom content from WSJ and Vanguard.

0:32Ken Shreve:Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Thursday, June 11th. It's Alyssa Quorum here and some power in the market right when we needed it. A bounce off of a key level for the Nasdaq composite as we're seeing a positive shift in the headlines once again on the Iran war conflict. We'll see if it sticks and oil down on the day. Joining me now to break down the action from today's session is my colleague, Ken Shreve. Ken, what are we going to be talking about today? Well, we'll talk about this nice, robust bounce for the stock market, Ali. Like you said, we have three stocks to talk about.

1:11Nice bounce for semiconductor stocks. So let's start with a semiconductor stock. That's going to be SITIM, a name that many people may not have heard of. SITM. In the biotech space, we'll take a look at Crystal Biotech. K-R-Y-S. And then a good day for aerospace and defense stocks. A lot of movement in that group. Let's take a look at a large cap name, Haumet Aerospace, H-W-M.

1:39Ken Shreve:Okay, we'll take a look at those stocks. But first, a closer look at the major indexes and the power that we saw today. The Nasdaq Composite up 2.5 percent, outpaced by small caps. The The Russell 2000 up 2.9 % on the day, getting close to those prior highs there. Meanwhile, the S &P 500 up about 1.8 % on the day. The Dow up 1.9 % on the day. Also want to give a shout out to the NASDAQ 100. You mentioned the strength in chips was definitely a large cap tech day. We saw the NASDAQ 100 represented by the QQQ ETF here. up over 3 % today, Ken, getting back above the 21-day line. Full disclosure, I do own some TQQQ.

2:31Ken Shreve:But what are your thoughts on this market comeback? From a technical perspective, the timing looks pretty great. Nice little test of the 50-day moving average for the NASDAQ composite. Boy, that was a pretty violent drop down to the 50-day moving average. That took just six sessions for it to come down pretty hard to the 50-day moving average. And, yeah, we had a nice percentage gain today. You can see the NASDAQ is still below that 21-day line and still below the 10-day moving average. So we'll still call the NASDAQ index a little challenged here below the 21-day moving average. And we'd like to see the NASDAQ get back above that 21-day line.

3:15And we'd like to see it close above there for a few days. But, you know, we'll take a nice, strong up session when we can get it. We had, you know, we had producer price index data before the open, which stocks backed off highs a little bit after the data. The wholesale prices came in generally a little weaker than expected. At least core prices on a year over basis were a little softer than expected. But, you know, late in the day, it was right just before 1.30 p.m. Eastern time. We saw this big spike in the market just before 1.30 p.m. And it turns out that President Trump has, you know, canceled this new wave of bombing that was going to happen tonight in Iran.

4:02And once again, he's saying that there's an imminent deal with Iran. And not long after that, Iran and Israel said that this is not true. True, there is not a deal, but the market just decided to rally and we had, you know, small caps and the Dow, you know, outperformed the most. So once again, you know, President Trump is, he's not the first time he has said this. He said it's a deal, you know, could be signed this weekend. Just recently, he said he's not going to be there, the President or Vice President Vance, if there is going to be a signing of Vice President Vance. Vance will be there to sign the deal.

4:46He said it could happen as early as this weekend, but this is not the first time we've heard of a deal possibly being signed in a matter of a couple of days. Again, CNBC reported not that long ago that Iran and Israel have denied that a deal is in place. So we'll just have to have to see just a little frustrating, Ali, to to see the market gyrations based on, you know, comments coming out of the White House. But market, oil market, bond market, stock market, certainly putting a lot of faith into what the president is saying here. For investors, it has been frustrating because we just haven't seen anything yet.

5:35So we'll see what comes of it. But what we know is we got a good, strong rally today. And this comes ahead of a very big IPO tomorrow. So I expect we're going to see a little more volatility tomorrow, too. So we'll see.

5:52Ken Shreve:We very well could with the SpaceX IPO, which has now priced at$135 a share. So more to come on that when it drops. And we'll wait. We're not going to have any jerk reaction at the open of that IPO. We'll see if it can form an IPO base. But back to the market, like you said, very headline driven here. Volatility has picked up, you know, this cycle. It is the Iran war as well as AI related headlines past market cycles. You had the tariff talks, you know, Fed decisions have also driven volatility in the market. So we'll see what comes of the developing headlines there. And we'll do our best to interpret the index action and the leadership.

6:45Ken Shreve:And we're going to be taking a look at some interesting names on that front, Ken. Yeah, exactly. I mean, what we know right now is that we're kind of early in a pullback here. What we know is we've got a six-session pullback down to the 50-day line for the NASDAQ. It happened, you know, with what we would call some distribution, some higher volume declines in the index. We did get a little volume behind the move today. We did have pretty light volume yesterday. So it looks like we got some higher volume today. Breath was pretty good in the market. Got to give the market credit. We were almost, at last check, we were close to 3 to 1 positive on both the NASDAQ exchange and the New York stock exchange.

7:33So this is the S &P 500 equal weight ETF. And that had a nice percentage gain today. So breadth was pretty good in the market today. Even during the markets, you know, recent down sessions, we've seen breadth pretty good in the market. So nice to see breadth almost 3 to 1 positive today. Another thing, we had a big drop in bond yields today, which was also good news for the market. That was a precipitous drop. in the 10-year yield today. You can see over the past three sessions, it had basically just been kind of biding time. Big move in the 10-year yield last Friday, and then it was just kind of moving sideways for the past three days, and then a really big drop today after that wholesale inflation data.

8:27So small caps took the opportunity to rally pretty sharply on that. And then another big drop in oil prices today.

8:38Ken Shreve:Yeah, a lot of interesting dynamics at play. And with the NASDAQ touching the 50-day line, the S &P not quite there. But in addition to that 21-day line, we are also keeping a very close eye on 7 ,400 for the S &P. We're right there. We are back above that May 19th low, also keeping an eye on the high. We're still inside the bar from Tuesday. So that is also something to note. So just because we had this powerful bounce near a longer-term support level, like you said, it's still an early test. We'll have to see ultimately if this is a successful test, a successful bounce. bounce. I would say given the percentage gains, it is compelling and encouraging, but definitely not out of the woods.

9:32Ken Shreve:So on the downside, we're absolutely watching the recent lows and the 50-day line as well. We don't want to see further deterioration, but we do know when you do see what we said in real time, when we had that slice like butter through that 21 days, that you typically see a little bit of time for that kind of break to play out. But on the flip side, we have the news-driven nature of this. We have a huge IPO coming out tomorrow. So, you know, we'll continue to munch on our popcorn, Ken. Yeah. And you remember just the scope of the gains that we've seen. It has been just a massive rally off lows for the S &P 500.

10:23We're up for eight or nine sessions in a row before we started this latest pullback here. So, you know, I mean, normally you need a little time to digest, you know, massive gains like this. So, I mean, to the S &P 500's credit, it has gotten a lot closer to the 21-day line than the NASDAQ. I mean, I think the S &P 500 probably maybe even touched the 21-day line today. So, you know, nice relative strength by the S &P 500 today. And, you know, listen, the percentage gains by the market today and close near highs was certainly impressive. And we did see a lot of very good action underneath the surface today.

11:04A lot of, I'm looking at some of the, you know, top-performing industry groups today. The chip equipment group was up 11 % today. So that was definitely where, you know, a large part of the action was in the market. You know, solar stocks had been beaten up. The solar group was up seven and a half percent. Airline stocks up six and a half percent. Your contract manufacturers up six percent. Mining stocks. So good, good cross section of leadership today.

11:36Ken Shreve:Absolutely. OK, great color there, Ken. And with the mention of the SpaceX IPO, let's quickly take a look at this NASA ETF blasting into space, coming back down to Earth, but perhaps ready for launch once again. Look at this, up almost 13 % on the day. So all eyes are focused on this industry group come tomorrow. You know, if you were quick enough with this one, this was a pretty nasty pullback right down to the top of a prior base here, right down to that prior entry of 32. And, I mean, of course, it totally erased a double-digit gain from the buy point. But there were probably some traders in there saying, hey, this came all the way down, retested that prior entry.

12:32and when the market started rallying and this thing just kind of went right back through that that buy zone maybe people took the opportunity to and pick some up here so if you were quick maybe got it near 32 33 you know good good for you that that thing really took off so figured we talk about you know nasa today just in light of the spacex ipo tomorrow but nice etf that ended up having a good day today, rallied in heavy volume, came down and retested the top of that prior little short consolidation and quickly moved out of the buy zone. Of course, UFO is another ETF that has gotten very popular as well, the ProCure Space ETF.

13:20That came up through its 50-day moving average today as well and also had a good day. So the SpaceX IPO will be exciting. Who knows when it will open, Allie? I mean, we've seen a lot of IPOs recently, and the IPO market has really heated up. But as you know, we've seen some IPOs, they haven't opened until three or four hours into the market day. So I wouldn't be surprised if the SpaceX IPO, you know, we may not see it open until, you know, three hours or later into the market day. We'll have to see.

13:56Ken Shreve:Yeah, well, hang on to your hats. It is really interesting, Ken, that even with all the damage that we've seen in recent weeks, just the levels that we're seeing being retaken or levels that stocks and ETFs are bouncing off of. It's kind of interesting. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. Okay, moving on. When you need to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs. It gives your job post the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications and more. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.

14:37Ken Shreve:Listeners of this show will get a$75 sponsored job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Let's go ahead and take a look at ticker SITM. This is a side time in the semiconductor fabulous group. So speaking of this stock had a test of the 50 day a couple of days ago and now is showing some relative strength already getting back above its own 21 day line clearing a trend line as well up almost 9 % today. Yeah, I think this is really an interesting. I might have talked about this one a while back in the SMT video.

15:20SciTime is a really interesting company tracked in the chip design group. What they do are precision timing solutions. And a lot of people don't really think about chip stocks or chip design stocks as a provider of timing solutions. But this is a provider of precision timing solutions. So this is really kind of a better mousetrap because they basically come and they're replacing basically quartz-based timing solutions in the semiconductor industry with silicon timing solutions. And in data centers, timing solutions are very critical because, you know, all the data centers that are based on these thousands of GPUs, if there are any timing issues with all the GPUs that are running, it can cause corrupted data.

16:13So SiteTime is right there with their chip designs that provide these timing solutions inside the data centers, and it keeps the GPUs running very efficiently. And it's a niche market that the company is doing very well in. So this is really just kind of a breakout out of a little downtrend here. SiteTime just kind of moved above all of its short-term moving averages here. So I think the stock looks actionable here. Came down close to its 50-day moving average earlier in the week. And, you know, really an interesting company here. Very nice growth prospects. Look at the market cap, too. It's a name probably hardly anyone has ever heard of.

16:56$17 billion market cap here. So this is no small potatoes. It's also a$700 stock. So, I mean, it's an institutional quality name. And just look at the growth that the company has delivered in recent quarters here. So really, really an outstanding company here. And, you know, weekly chart, you've got a great first test of the 10-week moving average here. It's an interesting market right now, Ali, because there are quite a few stocks that are out of position here. I mean, looking through the chip space right now, you have a lot of stocks that are, you know, kind of coming down and testing their 10-day, a lot of big market leaders, I should say, that are coming down and testing their 10-day lines and 21-day lines.

17:42But, you know, side time is a good one of the few examples where you're actually getting a good first test of the 10-week moving average. And on the daily chart, like I said, just coming down and coming through its 21-day line for the first time. So I think this is a really good candidate here and kind of a niche market in precision timing. So a good one to look at here. And chip stocks were a big reason why the NASDAQ did so well today. Yeah.

18:14Ken Shreve:And I would say, speaking of precision timing, this entry here, this is a stock with an ATR, average true range of over 7%. So it can have big swings. And I think you especially see that on the weekly chart. So I would say buying this one is close to a moving average, whether it's the 21 day, if you're using the daily chart or the 10-week line, I would say that is the time to be trying this one so you can manage that risk. Most definitely. Okay. Let's move on and take a look at a biotech name, Crystal Biotech. It's profitable. And clearing an entry around the 319-320 level, shares were up 3 % today.

19:01Yeah. Well, first of all, let's look at the relative strength line here. beautifully in new high ground, shot into new high ground. This one didn't break out of a full-fledged base, but it was kind of a short consolidation. We took a shot here in the leaderboard model portfolio today and added this, added some more biotech exposure here. You can see the breakout over this 320 or 320. My eyes are terrible.

19:33Ken Shreve:319 and change. 3.19 and change, yeah. So you can see the stock closed at 3.21, very much well within the 5 % buy zone here. Crystal Biotech has one drug that they're making a lot of money with right now. Their main focus is still dermatology. They have a drug that treats a very rare skin disorder that It causes blistering and severe scarring. But you can see it's generating meaningful revenue for the company and also profits. So they're profitable and generating revenue as well. But they also have a pipeline that is targeting other therapeutic areas, a little bit in oncology. they're also in some other areas as well so pretty good pretty good pipeline here and like I said we put it in the leaderboard model portfolio and closed off highs a little bit today let's take a look at the weekly chart and just see this is a stock that has been trending pretty well came out of a big base and then formed a smaller base and then just broke out of a smaller consolidation recently.

20:57But just love the profitability here basically since 2023. One marketed drug right now, but again, targeting some other areas outside of dermatology. So pretty good pipeline here. And And we gave it a shot here in the relative strength line in new high ground. So we're going to give it a go. Yeah.

21:23Ken Shreve:And in terms of where this one's trading versus the 10-week, we'll take a look at that. It's about 10 % away from the 10-week for those who are using that level to manage risk. and let's round things out with a look at Howmet Aerospace, an upside reversal at its own 10-week line, taking shape this week. Let's see where it is in relation to that level. Shares are within 4 % of the 10-week line here. Ken, a very steady stock over the long term. It does form a lot of bases along the way. So this one too, I think is great to try to get close to the 50-day or 10-week. Shares were up 6 % today. And like you said, broad-based strength in this group.

22:10Yeah, and this is sort of just a liquid large cap name that just kind of bounced off its 50-day moving average, kind of moved back into a buy zone from a prior entry here. Looks like it was around 265, 266 in that area. Or you could just get it right off the 50-day line. I think this stock was actionable again today, too. This has been a Big Cap 20 name in recent months. I'm not sure it's still in our Big Cap 20 list, but just a longtime earnings leader. It's got a very low earnings stability rank, which is actually good. I think the earnings stability rank is a 7, just meaning it has a very long-term record of earnings growth here.

22:57So, again, the relative strength rating of 70, that means it's not a leader in terms of relative price strength in the aerospace and defense group. That's because there's probably some small, small mid-cap names that maybe have given maybe better 12-month price performance. But, again, Helmet is a big, huge company. I mean, it's a half a billion dollar or half a trillion dollar market cap name. But, you know, a stock that is still outperforming and great long-term fundamentals here. So I think this one is actionable. And again, the industry group, aerospace and defense stocks were among the, I think it was a top 10 performing group today.

23:40So at one point late in the day, the group was up about 4 % or 5 % on the day. So saw a lot of stocks outperforming in the group today. So HowMet was a large cap name in the group. And I did want to, there were two other stocks that I debated talking about on the SMT video. And I just wanted to give a shout out to two other smaller names in the group that I thought deserved some attention. One is MRCY, MRCY. That is Mercury Systems, Mercury Systems. And this is a stock that just made a nice move above its 10-day moving average into new high ground today, MRCY. uh 1 19 32 it closed out let's look at the the weekly chart yeah weekly chart for mercury systems yeah great uh great relative strength that's been a long time uh long time leader so it just uh you know kind of an outside outside week here but a nice uh nice breakout for mercury systems um you know hit an all-time high today and then another uh top good performer in the group today A-A-R.

24:48A-A-R. A lot of really nice, yeah, sorry, A-I-R is the symbol and A-A-R is the, yeah, and this was a breakout today in the group. So this one crossed a buy point today and, you know, relative strength rating of 83 and relative strength rating in new, getting near new high ground. but another interesting name in the group. So saw a lot of broad-based strength in the aerospace and defense group today. So pretty good day in the market, Allie. But overall, a lot of stocks out of position. It's not easy finding IBD growth stocks in position. Even in the chip space, we looked at side time today, but still seeing a lot of extended chip stocks, the chip equipment stocks, even the big leaders like Lamb Research and KLA and a lot of these names kind of out of position, you know, but got to be patient and hunt and look hard because the market really didn't pull back enough to give stocks time to form bases.

25:59So you got to be careful with your new buys and make sure you're not buying too extended. So got to be careful and just be diligent with your buy points.

26:09Ken Shreve:Totally agree. And I think tomorrow's session is really important given the fact that it was such a volatile week. So, you know, it could make all the difference how we close on Friday. And we'll be watching and we will be discussing on IABD Live as well as on the Stock Market Today video tomorrow. And Ken, you and the markets team, of course, and the leaderboard team all over the market's coverage as well. So we look forward to following along your coverage tomorrow. And thanks everyone for tuning in. That's it from us for today. But like I said, we'll be back tomorrow morning on IEBD Live starting 10 minutes before the opening bell.

26:52Ken Shreve:Investors.com slash IEBD Live for all those details. We'll see you there. And then we'll also see you right back here tomorrow after the close to wrap up the week.

27:33We'll see you next time. summer at Columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome. Columbia, engineered for whatever.