Stocks Tumble On Trump’s Greenland Threats; Nvidia, Lumentum, BKV In Focus

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0:39good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for tuesday january 20th my name is ken shrie well another great day for gold stocks but that's about it a tough day for the major stock indexes before we talk about today's stock market on a shortened day of trading let me We bring out our news editor, Ed Carson, who, as usual, has got three stocks to watch. Good afternoon, Ed. Good afternoon. NVIDIA is one of those losers, many losers. A couple that did okay were Lumentum and BKV, a recent IPO. Okay, NVIDIA, Lumentum, and an oil and gas stock. Before we look at those names, let's start by taking a look at the broad market.

1:24It was a tough day for the NASDAQ composite. Small caps held in there for a good part of the session, but the selling eventually found the way to small caps. But let's start by taking a look at the NASDAQ composite here. NASDAQ composite eventually ended with a loss of 2.4%. Let's get a chart of the NASDAQ composite up here. Volume did rise on the NASDAQ today, so it looks like we're going to get another distribution day for the NASDAQ. And this was a pretty decisive break of the 50-day moving average here for the NASDAQ. And we did have negative breadth. It was not quite 3 to 1 negative, but just a rough day overall.

2:11But boy, those gold stocks, they did outperform again today. Yeah, but this was not the old gold stocks rising with growth stocks. This is gold stocks rising in a safe haven flow away from stocks, away from bonds, away from the U.S. dollar. It was a sell the U.S. kind of day because it wasn't like people sold stocks and went into the treasuries. They did. And that was part of the problem is that we saw, you know, the 10-year treasury rise. The S &P's blow the 50-day line. I don't want to make too much of it because, you know, the NASDAQ and S &P are still in the sideways motion for several months.

2:50As you say, small caps held up pretty well. The Dow isn't far from record highs. That one found support around the 21-day line. So, I mean, there's definitely things out there. It was one day. It's just it's tough because there's so much uncertainty. It seems like Trump has really ratcheted up. It's not just that, OK, he announced these Greenland tariffs and with the prospect of a full-blown rupture. But it's like every day, it seems like, over the past week, he's had some sector-moving or market-moving news. And some of that news has been positive. Don't get me wrong. But to quote, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld during the, you know, like 20 years ago or so, there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

3:30We've got a ton of known unknowns with earnings, but Trump is always a wild card. Makes it tough. So I think that investors, if they needed to sell losers and they might have wanted to cut exposure, if there are some of their winners, especially if their recent winners were turning into almost a loser. So maybe trimming back a little bit, but I don't want to make too much of it because this market has had a lot of these head fakes onto the upside and downside. Well, you mentioned this big move in the 10-year treasury yield for two days in a row. I mean, this was a big move in that 10-year treasury yield on Friday and another big move today.

4:12So what do you make out of all the selling in the bond market on Friday and today? Yeah, I mean, some of this, I think, is a lot of this has to do with a sell to U.S., as I said. People are exiting U.S. assets in general. And, of course, the higher bond yield on balance will put pressure on stock prices. It's one thing if bond yields rise because the economy is doing so great, then, well, yes, that's negative. But it's still good because a good economy is good for the stock market. There's also rising Japan bond yields. There's, you know, there's multiple factors going on there. But yeah, this is not this is not a good sign.

4:53Again, we're not we're not where we were. You know, we're well below where we were a year ago. So I don't again don't want to make too much of it. It's just that there's that just to be clear is that for tomorrow morning we will get before the open. And I believe President Trump is supposed to speak at the World Economic Forum. And obviously, with a lot of tensions going on. And so we'll see how that goes. I mean, it could be that that's some of what's going on. I'd also bring up the VIX. I didn't think about this, but the VIX, you know, again, I don't want to make too much of it. It's the highest in a few months, but it's obviously not even where it was.

5:30Big spike. You know, big spike today. But it's off not even really at short-term highs, really. I mean, it's like two-month highs or whatever. So, you know, you don't want to overplay it. We could easily – Trump says something that markets like tomorrow and everybody's happy again. So it's hard to make too much of it. It's just that you have to react to that. The indexes do not act well. Yields breaking higher. There are a lot of negative signs outside of, you know, gold. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Well, we mentioned the gold stocks outperforming. Again, the IBD50 index of leading growth stocks is certainly populated with a lot of gold stocks at this point.

6:15So not surprising to see FFTY enjoy another day of outperformance today. The Innovator IBD50 ETF up a whopping 1.6 % today. that is in quite a contrast to Cathie Wood's ARKK bit of a divergence here ARKK down three percent so you have FFTY filled with a lot of gold stocks outperforming but ARKK down quite a bit today down almost three percent that looked like it was moving mostly in line with the market that was down almost three percent and breaking below the 50-day moving average today yeah and I'd say Obviously, in addition to gold, I mean, I believe the IBD-50 has a number of memory plays.

7:01They did pretty well. They're still doing well. Whereas I think ARK, OK, it's big as holding as Tesla, but then they have a lot of there's some crypto stuff that hasn't been doing well. And as you say, this is it's not that egregious compared, you know, relative to the NASDAQ, you know, technically or just the day's loss. There wasn't a whole lot of good. I mean, whereas before it was like, OK, software sucks. But a lot of things were working in tech. Now, it just was a bad day. I mean, it was a bad day. There's going to be exceptions out there. It was not a good day. Take a look at QQEW. This is the equal-weighted version.

7:38Let's look at QQQE. Because we realize that there's something weird with QQEW, or at least they're more curated. Okay, QQQE. Here we go. Now, this is more a straight-up equal weight. Right. So that one looks OK. I mean, it hasn't broken through the 50-day line, but it's, I mean, obviously, it can't take a lot more in that regard. RSP obviously looks better, looks more like IWM, just not as strong. So declining stocks on the NASDAQ today, not quite 3 to 1 negative. Take a look at RSP. This is the equal weighted S &P 500 ETF. Breath was a little worse on the S &P 500. It was almost 4 to 1 negative on the NYSE.

8:28You see the RSP. That was just a little bit above the 21-day moving average here. So, yeah, not a great day for the broad market. Negative breadth, maybe not surprising here. So let's go ahead and take a look at the three stocks we're going to look at today. Start by taking a look at NVIDIA. You have some stocks in this AI trade that have just been kind of biding time here. NVIDIA trading near the 50-day moving average. Really hasn't tried to bounce off the line yet. It gapped down today, down 4%. Volume picked up the pace a little bit, moved below some recent lows. What are you seeing here in video?

9:15Yeah, there was a couple of times last week where it was looking like it was flirting with making a decisive move above the 50-day line, maybe flirting with the downward sloping trend line, but it just couldn't hold it now. Could it bounce right back? Sure. But it's just been slumping here, and it's just not a great sign. I mean, we know that the market can rally without NVIDIA leading, but it's just hard if NVIDIA is heading south and starting to lose sight of the 50-day line. And there's just too many things going on. Obviously, if there's – and there wasn't any real specific news, I could think.

9:48I mean, there's always something, something out there. But it just is just – the market was getting out of these areas, and it's just not a good sign. Again, it's just that thin line. I mean, just getting below that 50-day line decisively, it just feels a lot worse now. I mean, when you start breaking these key levels, it would take a really strong day or a couple of good days to get back up to that level. And it wouldn't take that much to fall below. I mean, these recent lows. Just check in and see how SMH did today. This is the benchmark semiconductor ETF, which NVIDIA is a top-holding SMH. Also a rough day, fell a lot more than the NASDAQ today.

10:35That was down 2.5%, still holding near the 21-day moving average. So gold stocks outperformed today. We mentioned the data storage stocks, the microns, the sand discs outperformed. Also the fiber optic stocks, which were big, big winners in 2025. Let's take a look at LITE. I know a lot of people on IBD Live this morning were wondering if Lumentum was buyable. Nice test of the 50-day moving average here. The stock was up 10%. Volume picked up the pace a little bit here. Look at the weekly chart here. We see Ed Lumentum has made such a humongous move. This was one of the biggest winners back in 2025 here.

11:19I mean, technically, this looks like it's the second test of the 10-week moving average after a breakout all the way back in this area here. What do you say to people on IBD Live this morning that we're asking, is this stock really viable here? It's a tough one. I mean, you could almost argue it's the first test because that first test was almost a base. I mean, it wasn't just a dip. Almost a base, right. Right. And, you know, we do say that you can buy the first or second bounce off the 10-week line. So you can do that. This was, you know, when it first bounced off the 10-week line, you could have done that.

11:58And then the problem was, is then much of the day, it was just below the 21-day line. So if you go to a daily chart, you know, by the end of the day, it did close above it. So that was positive. The problem was now it's starting to go, how far up do you want to go? No, it was up 10 % today. I mean, I just wasn't in a buying mood today, but this was already 10 % above the 50-day line. I mean, again, it's like, well, what do you want if I'm going to tell you you don't buy it yet and then it's too late? It's like, it's a tough one. Obviously, this could work. This has been a super, you know, yeah, it's a super strong area of the market.

12:33You can see that accelerating growth on the revenue and, you know, the earnings are triple digit. I mean, way in the triple digits, too. And it's supposed to be strong growth, really strong growth in 2026, which is I know we're midway through it, but still be strong. So basically, the next 18 months, it's supposed to be really strong growth. So a lot to like about that. Yeah, you could have bought it. But now it's just like now I'd love it to see like hold for a day or two. I mean, that would be what I would do and see if the market could straighten out. The problem is that I don't know if I'll get an opportunity, but definitely take notice.

13:09The fiber optic, like the memory areas, are showing a lot of strength right now. Law moves fast and legal work still needs to stay ahead. LexisNexis Protege Legal AI workflows bring trusted authority and verified citations into every draft. Private, secure, authoritative legal AI. LexisNexis. yep and uh like i said lumentum micron sandisk these were the market's biggest winners in uh in 2025 so they've picked up right where they left off and in 2026 they've uh resumed their market market leadership so uh yeah maybe some uh some risk buying these names up here but they're they're continuing to show relative strength no doubt about it i will say you know sandisk i was Looking at Sandisk today in the market surge, this was another big winner today.

14:04Sandisk was up just as much as Lumentum in the data storage group, the top-ranked group in the market here. Look at Sandisk. Incredibly, we look at where the stock is in relation to its 200-day moving average, 290 % now above its 200-day line. So a lot of these stocks are really getting into kind of nosebleed territory in terms of getting quite extended from their moving averages. So these are just some things to keep in mind. You want to be careful of chasing performance. All right. I definitely don't want to be chasing these names. Yeah. I mean, this is, you know, we say when a stock gets 100 % above a moving average, that gets kind of into nosebleed territory.

14:52So, you know, SanDisk is quite extended. Okay, oil and gas area. Let's take a look at BKV, I believe is the symbol here. And not so much oil, but this is more natural gas, I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong, Ed. I believe so. And natural gas was up 26 % today. Huge move. Huge move in natural gas. And with BKV, looks like, let me enable my pen here and try to get a little breakout over a trend line here. Stock closed off highs, but had a little bit of an early entry today with BKV. Yeah, I got above his 50-day line. Maybe you could use today's high. Like, I mean, assuming you didn't buy it today, I would use today's high maybe as an entry because then it'd be clearly above that 50-day line.

15:46And this is basically, you know, it's an emerging double bottom in my view. It might end up being a flat base. I'm not having done the math, but it looks like a double bottom to me with the two legs and the second leg being underneath. It's a base on base. So it held up well. It also held up well. I mean, natural gas had this huge move. Natural gas had been terrible for much of the year. I mean, natural gas went up 26%, but it's only up 6 % for the month despite today's gain. So it had been falling, but BKV held up pretty well. And so, you know, if you're going to buy something like this, you know, an oil and gas name, it's often good to buy around a moving average just because there's just a natural thing about how the commodity prices can just turn.

16:29I mean, we were having cold weather. Well, presumably we're going to warm up again. I don't know. I don't know. At some point, maybe, you know, so but that's what drove this natural gas spike. But this is a recent IPO. It's acted very well. And this is, while it's not incredibly tight, you know, there was some wild action, then a tighter base and now a tighter base. So it's nice as this IPO has sort of matured and there's been a lot of volatility in the market. It feels, you know, this is a relatively tight base that's underway and there's some strong growth behind this name as well. At least so far, obviously prices will have a huge impact on that.

17:06very interesting company here and you can see the estimates for 2025 and 2026 after a couple of years of losses right here really expected to ramp into uh ramp into growth mode here a cap uh small cap company who are name good uh top line growth expected for for several several quarters in a row. A name that looks interesting here, kind of newer, like you said, small cap with pretty good fundamentals here. So kind of an interesting name in the natural gas space. And like you said, natural gas up huge today. Two quarters in a row of very nice growth for BKV here. So good one to keep on the radar here.

17:54We are getting into earnings season. I I know we had a lot of financials kick things off last week for us. Some names we are watching after the close today. What's on your radar, Ed? We've got four stocks. First one is Netflix. That one has been doing terrible in part because of the Warner Brothers deal. They did beat views. Guidance beat, you know, just narrowly on EPS and revenue. They said they had 325 million subscribers. They hadn't been giving subscriber data for a while. I don't know how that was versus views. I don't know versus, you know, it seemed like the revenue forecast was, was okay, but the stock is down.

18:29So that one has been doing great. United Airlines, that beat views on EPS, slightly beat on revenue. I don't know about guidance. UAL had been in a buy zone, fell today below either, you know, fell below this, the top here. You could use the top of the base or there was sort of a handle in that prior base. It went below either way, fell to the 10-week line, bouncing back. So that might be something that's actionable tomorrow. Interactive Brokers, this is another one that fell below a top of a base and a handle that was just below. That one is sort of wavering after the close. But, you know, that was sort of it beat Fuse on EPS.

19:10It was sort of in line on revenue. And then one last one is Zion. It's another regional bank, you know, Zion's Bank Corp. And that one, last time I looked, was popping up and was up layout. So that one is going to be moving not back just above a buy point, but maybe above those resist sort of the trading in that buy zone. So some nice action here. There's this mixed action afterwards and obviously a lot more. And next week is going to be this crazy busy, but stuff to keep us busy in the meantime. No doubt about it. Well, this is some early look at some earnings movers. Ed, thank you very much for your insight.

19:55We appreciate it as always. All right. That'll do it for today, folks. We appreciate you watching as usual. I will be back tomorrow with Ed for another Stock Market Today video. And tomorrow morning, I will be hosting IBD Live, back from a week's vacation from the Philadelphia area. So be sure to join me and the crew tomorrow morning. Head over to investors.com forward slash IBD live. If you haven't checked out our show every weekday morning, we get things underway right around 620 a.m. Pacific time, 920 a.m. Eastern time. So check it out. Investors.com forward slash IBD live. Until then, have a great rest of the day, everyone.

20:44We will see you back here tomorrow. Take care. Thank you.

21:17Thanks for listening.