Transports Rev Higher As Oil Falls; Delta, CSX, Carnival In Focus

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0:40good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today for monday february 2nd it's alexis garcia here and you know luckily for investors it wasn't a groundhog day today a repeat of friday Stocks traded higher as investors shook off those recent declines in gold, silver, and crypto. Rare Earth stocks also got a boost thanks to news of investments coming from the Trump White House. But here with me to help break down everything you need to know is IBD Markets Research Director Justin Nielsen. And Justin, let's get him on here. this is what happens when you take a vacation you're living la dolce vita that's exactly what it is uh what do you have on top for us today well you know what since i was on vacation let's

1:34Alexis Garcia:just uh focus on transportation it just so happened to line up with oil prices down as much as they were uh we'll take a look at some planes trains and ships i guess uh we'll go with Delta Airlines, CSX, and Carnival. And that's only because Mike took Viking on Friday. That would have been my preferred. All right. Well, I did notice you had a theme here, so I was going to give you some flack for it, but I'm glad to have you back. Before we get to those, let's just go ahead and check in on the major indexes. The S &P 500 finishing the day up half a percent. The Dow up one percent. The Nasdaq also up about six tenths of a percent and small caps up about nine tenths of a percent.

2:17So, Justin, let me go ahead and get our chart up. But talk to me about the market action, because, again, Friday, kind of not a pretty day. Silver and gold got walloped. But, you know, again, we're seeing the S &P 500. We're on the SBY chart here. Had a nice day and now it's almost back to record highs.

2:38Alexis Garcia:Yeah. And that's the thing that's tough about this market right now is you have some days that don't look great. You have some days that do look great. But overall, it's not very strong in either direction. And that's where I have the most problem because it's easy to sidestep a correction when it's a very clear downtrend. But when it's kind of this trendless sideways, that gets really tough. Even, you know, Now, the S &P 500 here, you could say that it broke out kind of of this base, but it really never gained traction. It hasn't been trending. It hasn't really stayed above its 21-day moving average line.

3:13Alexis Garcia:It has stayed above its 50-day. But even that is kind of just, you know, it's come down there, touched it, bounced off of it. It just doesn't seem to be making much progress. So, again, it's a little bit tougher. And what's even tougher than that is you're seeing some really strong moves in some individual stocks. So you feel like you're missing out. You've got the FOMO. But at the same time, you look at the indexes. And while they are right there at highs, it has been very slow progress over the last few months, really. And let's look at RRSP really quickly just for that breath, because as you mentioned, there's a lot of names out there doing really well.

3:51RRSP up almost half a percent today, but, you know, looking pretty good here, Justin. But again, it looks like it's just been kind of trying to figure out where it wants to go here over the last month or so.

4:04Alexis Garcia:Yeah. And I mean, that's the thing is we have seen RSP, the equal weighted S &P 500, get really strong and the small caps with a lot of participation as well. So the two of those have kind of suggested a lot more breadth to this market and maybe not so much of the focus on your big cap or mega cap stocks. If we just pull up FNGS real quick to look at the contrast between those, you know, this has been, you know, trending below its 50 day moving average line for the FANG plus. But, you know, the RSP and the IWM, you know, small caps have been looking a lot stronger. But even those were a little bit tough.

4:42Alexis Garcia:You know, they pulled back a little bit, though it looks like they were getting support at their 21 day moving average lines. But that's it's hard to be so excited about that when you're seeing a lot of other things getting hit really hard. So, again, it's just been a very tricky market here. I don't blame anyone for getting frustrated because that's kind of where I am myself. Yeah, and I know the IBD Live crew was kind of hitting on some of the sector rotation. So what was kind of the big takeaway from this morning? Well, I was having some troubles this morning with my system. So I was a little bit off and on.

5:18Alexis Garcia:But I mean, you know, Scott Sinclair kind of to our theme today was talking about STNG. So that's in the shipping area. you know so even though this is in the oil and gas area and let's be honest oil and gas both got hit quite a bit today they're still the you know they still have it still has to get around no matter what the prices of the commodities they still have to get places so you know this this was one area that we were talking about and you know look the it's not like the tech is destroyed As I'm looking at the sector spiders today, RSPT, which is the equal weighted tech, that was actually doing very well today.

6:01Alexis Garcia:You look at SMH, which is the chips, that was not having a bad day at all. You had some of your old legacy tech giants like Cisco. That was something that got added to Swing Trader at the end of the day. So there's a lot of strength in tech still. It's just maybe not so much in the mega caps. But at the same time, you also had way up there was XLP, the staples. Normally, you don't have the growth stocks and the staples doing well together. But that's just kind of the market that we have right now. Cats and dogs living together in harmony or something. And just quickly looking at the NASDAQ before we move on here, because as you mentioned, tech having a pretty good day.

6:45We had a lot of mega cap earnings and a lot of tech earnings come out over the last week. This will be another big week of earnings. So you have any thoughts here? Because it hasn't seemed to really, again, usually these things are a big catalyst for a market move, but it doesn't really seem to be doing much.

7:04Alexis Garcia:Yeah, there's big movement under the surface, but the indexes are kind of a little lackluster sometimes in both ways. Because, again, they're not normally getting hit that hard either. And when they do, they kind of find support levels very quickly. Like last week, it was the 50-day moving average line. And, you know, here we are back above the 21-day moving average line, at least in a closing, for the closing price. So it's, again, it's not a lot of damage for the indexes, but not a lot of strength either. And, you know, one of the things that I noted in my market school commentary over, you know, the last week is, you know, we did have a pile up of distribution.

7:43Alexis Garcia:And usually when you see a distribution cluster like that, that can that can speak to bad things happening. But again, so far, what we've seen is things get a little bit, you know, to the to the new high area, then they come down, they get support. And it's just a lot of this back and forth. And again, that's the toughest. If you're a trend follower, that's the toughest market to be in because there's really not much of a trend to follow. But to your point, look, it's still a very, you know, it can have that extra volatility because of the earnings that are coming out. You and Ed do a great job on your earnings review every week.

8:21Alexis Garcia:So, you know, people need to make sure they're not missing that on Fridays. Yeah, if you want more of me and Ed, which at this point, people might be sick of us at this point. But, you know, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Allie will be back in a couple weeks. So we'll all be celebrating that, I think. Big time. But I know we briefly touched on chips. So let's just, again, go back to SMH, Justin, and take a little bit of a closer look. Up over 1 % today. And, you know, we've really seen chips doing well. Software, however, seems to be really out of favor. So, yeah, talk to me about this chart.

9:00I mean, chips just continuing to do well and establishing themselves above the 400 level.

9:06Alexis Garcia:Yeah, it looks very different from all of the indexes that we looked at. And remember, chips are dominated by, there's this company called NVIDIA that everyone looks at, right? So, chips are, SMH, the Banex Semiconductor ETF, is doing so much better than NVIDIA. It's almost like NVIDIA is holding that back a little bit because of its big weight there. So, again, it's where the mega caps, you know, were really dominating for 2023, 2024 and a good deal of 2025. A lot of the focus has gone to some of the other, you know, some of the other members. And there are plenty of chips to choose from, whether it's, you know, your Taiwan Semiconductor TSM that has been, you know, trending nicely above its 21-day moving average line.

9:51Alexis Garcia:We've talked a lot about, you know, stocks. Well, Micron has been just crazy in terms of its move higher. And that's in the chip sector. And AMD, while it was getting kind of trounced by NVIDIA for a while, you know, that was having a good day, kind of forming a little handle here that might be actionable as it got support right at its 21-day moving average line. So, again, a lot of these are setting up looking very interesting. All right. How about we check in on IYT? That is the transport ETF from iShares. This went up almost 3 % today, Justin. Again, bouncing off this 21-day line. So strong action here in the transport sector.

10:33Alexis Garcia:Yeah, and I do have a position here that I opened in the transport section. You know, we put Jets on Swing Trader. So Jets is specific to the airlines. That was looking very strong. strong but it's really kind of no matter how you slice it there was a lot of strength in transports and you might be wondering oh well what's what's going on there you got to look at oil so USO that was hit by about five percent today you know really really got slammed UNG which is the natural gas yeah this is this is not an error this was down 25 percent today I just got really, really rocked. So, you know, you get a lot of damage there and transports, especially, you know, with their reliance on oil and gas and things like that.

11:21Alexis Garcia:It's something that can be a boon for them. So there was a lot of strength in that area. And it's not like this was a one-day thing. This has been trending very nicely above its 50-day and even its 21-day moving average line. It kind of seems a little bit boring. It doesn't have the excitement of AI and, you know, changing the world. But sometimes boring is good, at least if it's trending. Yeah, people need to get around and move things around. How about we take a look at GLD? This was a weak spot, Justin, last Friday, again, down today, another 4%. So give me your thoughts here with gold. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the GLD, you know, the gold and silver, you know, that just really kind of fell apart.

12:06Alexis Garcia:So almost like UNG, the fact that silver was down like 30 percent on Friday was was just incredible. So wiping away so much, you know, of this, well, really, you know, vertical move that Silverhead had. And this is the thing, you've got to be very careful here, folks, because it can be very tempting to say, well, gosh, I can get this at such a discount compared to where it was a few days ago. But a lot of times when you see this climactic action, it can be a very long time before it comes back. There can be a lot of increased volatility and the damage. It's very hard to pick the low. So this is this is kind of a no touch for me right now in the gold and silver space.

12:49Alexis Garcia:I did have P.A.A.S. myself, which despite its name of silver in Pan American silver in the name, it's actually a gold stock considerably considerable investments in gold. as well. So yeah, this is just a no-touch, a no-go area for me for a little while until things settle down and maybe set up again. But there's no reason to try and get in on a discount because things can get a lot worse here. And how about we look at Ibit as well, because Bitcoin also struggled last week, down again almost 7 % today, Justin. So talk to me about what's going on with crypto. I mean, we're just well below some of these recent lows here around the 46th level?

13:31Alexis Garcia:I can't tell you why, because it's not something that I know about. It's just out of my wheelhouse. What I can tell you is looking at the chart, this just doesn't look good, right? It comes up to its 50-day moving average line, gets turned away. Let's go to the weekly chart real quick. And you can see how we undercut this level from back in April, 2025. And so there just really has been a lack of support here, a lack of buying. So it's been, we're up, you know, we're down almost 40 % off the highs here. So again, this is not an area that I'm going to try and pick a bottom on. I'm just going to wait for this to look better.

14:10Alexis Garcia:I don't understand it well enough to be like, you know, gung ho on, you know, being able to hold through anything on something like this. I just trade the chart. You know what, Justin? Lucky for us, you are having a conversation with Jim Ropel right after this. That's exactly where I'm going to lean. I was going to use that as an opportunity to plug. We have our monthly market report with Jim Ropel today. So, yeah, I think it'll be interesting to hear his comments about Bitcoin. I also appreciate our YouTube fans pointing out the Golden Goose drinking game. Maybe I need to partake in that today.

14:46Alexis Garcia:Yes, and I have a special contribution for that today during the monthly market report. So join us for that. Right, we'll see that you're going to want to tune in. We'll have a special contribution. Introducing Fidelity Trader Plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web, and mobile. For faster trades anywhere you go, try the all-new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet at fidelity.com slash trader plus. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC.

15:22Alexis Garcia:Member NYSE SIPC. Let's go ahead and look at our individual stocks with Delta up about 4.8 % today, Justin. Looks like it's breaking a little bit of a recent downtrend and, again, getting above the 50 and 21 day lines. Yeah, so we talked about Jets, and so it's kind of across the board on airlines. Delta, I just chose this one because of the chart, and I also, I was on their co-chair partner, Air France, for my trip, so I figured why not. But yeah, it did spend a little bit of time below its 50-day moving average line. And, you know, it's still just under, if you look on the weekly chart, just under the 10-week moving average line.

16:03Alexis Garcia:But you can see where it kind of, you know, came down, got some support right at the top of its last base. And it really, really didn't puncture that. So it got support, although it missed the 10-week moving average line, it got support at a reasonable area. And again, it's hard to deny that there's just a lot of strength in this area. You know, whether you look at Delta Airlines, you know, Southwest Airlines, LUV, that one had a nice move last week. UAL, United, you know, it's the whole gamut. These have been looking a lot better. And so this just might be an area to be watching. Yeah, and luckily with these ones too, Delta has earnings out of the way.

16:48So that's not a factor there. Let's go ahead and jump on over to CSX. Justin, this went up 1.7 % today. And again, has been in this buy zone, but a really nice, strong move here above the 38 level.

17:02Alexis Garcia:Yeah. And, you know, I almost went with a Steve Martin and John Candy nod with the planes, trains, and automobiles, but went with cruise lines instead. But yeah, CSX, again, surprisingly, has been, you know, kind of trending a little bit nicely here. It's had a few fits and starts here where it seems like it's ready to break out and then doesn't. So be aware of that personality where the breakouts haven't lasted. But also keep this in mind that maybe there's a shift happening, again, because so many of the transports have been participating. This is one where, look, the fundamentals are not going to look great on these.

17:42Alexis Garcia:A lot of times, just like with oil and gas stocks, by the time the fundamentals start looking good, they're kind of done. But if you do see some kind of improvement or a little bit of a turnaround in forward-looking estimates, and it does look like we have that going on. If you see in the annual numbers, last year came down a little bit, 2025 down to$1.62 earnings per share. But the estimate for the next year is 185 and then 209 for 2027. So there might be one of those things where there's a little bit of that cycle happening. And we, you know, might be at the beginning of that. So again, by the time the earnings do turn around, it's often at the end of these moves.

18:28Alexis Garcia:So this might be something to just be keeping an eye on. All right. Well, how about we wrap this up with a look at Carnival Cruise Lines? This one up over 8 % today, Justin. And again, attempted this breakout back here on December 23rd. That wasn't very successful. It tested the 50-day line. But over the last few trading days, has gotten back above some key moving averages here. Yeah, it came right down to that 50-day moving average line. And seems like that's where it got its support. Again, I'm going to give a nod to Viking because that chart just looks better to me, not as whippy. And this was a legitimate breakout today.

19:09Alexis Garcia:something that, again, Mike was talking about on Friday. So I didn't want to duplicate, but really this one is the better looking chart. So I'm stealing from him. All right. Well, yeah, let's go ahead and look at Viking because, again, a breakout today. You also wanted to look at a couple more names, Justin, potentially ARC-B. Yeah. Just to round out, again, some of the other big movers in transportation. You know, this is in the transportation truck space, you know, really strong move on earnings last week and a good follow up today up over 10 percent. You know, it's not alone. You've got KNX, Knight Swift in that space, also up over 7 percent today.

19:58Alexis Garcia:That's been trending very nicely above its 50 day and it's and it's 21 day moving average line. So, yeah, just again, a lot of a lot of strength there. Oh, XPO was another one that I noted. Again, transportation, but this is in logistics. So it was really kind of, again, across the board. You could also throw FDX in there. That's been trending really nicely above its 21-day moving average line. This is a big heavyweight in the Dow Jones transportation average. Yeah, this was up 4 % after already having quite a move. So lots of strength there. And look, a lot of people do look at the strength in transports.

20:36Alexis Garcia:And, you know, you got FedEx. If things are happening for FedEx, a lot of times that's good for the economy. People are shipping stuff, moving stuff around. And that's usually meaning that it's a strong consumer. No, yeah, definitely good to see, especially it seems like we keep getting mixed signals in terms of the economy there, Justin. So thank you so much for those insights today. And as we mentioned, you're chatting to Jim Ropel shortly here. So if you want to catch that live, just tune into our YouTube channel. That's at 5 Eastern to Pacific. What else do you have going on this week? Well, you know, also going to have Matt Caruso on the podcast.

21:14Alexis Garcia:He's, of course, the founder and president of Caruso Insights. Just a really good guy, great educator. You know, love chatting with him. So we're going to be talking about some of the precedents for this market. And I'm sure this is something we'll get into with Jim as well. But, you know, for anyone that's been around the market for a while, you know that they don't go straight up. And so as much as it hasn't been fun lately, this kind of sideways movement, it's not unusual. So I'm sure that's something that Jim and I are going to address and then Matt as well with some precedence on Wednesday for the podcast.

21:49All right, Justin. Well, thank you again. We look forward to watching that. And that wraps it up for us today. We'll be back with more market analysis starting tomorrow morning with IBD Live. You can head on over to investors.com slash IBD live for all the details there. And we'll see you right back here tomorrow after the close.

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