Trade negotiations, bond risks and a rise in botulism cases

0:00The top business stories live from the Sky Newsroom. Stocks bounce on the news of that US-EU trade deal, narrowly avoiding a hammer blow to the global economy. We'll examine the economic impact on women's sport after England's lionesses beat Spain on Benendies. Plus, the UK Health Security Agency confirms 38 cases of botulism linked to cosmetic toxin injections. We'll be speaking to a Botox clinic.

0:37A very good morning on this Monday. Business Live with me, Cameron McCaffrey. The US and European Union have agreed on a trade deal that will see the bloc face 15 % tariffs on most of its imports, exports rather, including cars. The agreement staves off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the global economy. The US president said it's the biggest of all the deals, while Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission president, added it would bring stability and predictability. Well, let's speak to the head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce. That's William Bain. William, very good morning to you, as always.

1:13What's your take on how good this deal is? Good morning, Darren. I think the biggest virtues of it are stability and predictability. Tariffs on EU goods into the US could have fluctuated from 20 % down to 10, up to 15, now 30. There is certainty now that it's going to be at 15, covering most sectors, around 70 % of the EU's goods exports into the US. So that is a good thing relative to what could have confronted the global economy, which is the start of a trade war on Friday and tariffs at 30%. Well, in saying that, William, France's Prime Minister has described it as essentially the EU resigning itself into submission.

2:00The Germans are talking about the very fact that they see it as an inadequate compromise and the Irish have said it's not exactly something to celebrate. Well, there's a lot of pain here for European companies, But the pain would have been far greater had there not been a deal and you have double the tariffs on Friday morning. That would have caused immense hardship for pharmaceuticals, for the EU's automotive sectors. And of course, the pattern of EU trade is different from our own trade with the US, which is more fixed on terms of trade in services. About 60 percent of our trade is trade in services.

2:41So five million jobs would have been in the firing line had there not been a deal secured yesterday. It's Donald Trump playing the blind to here. He's essentially getting his tariffs through at a certain level that will raise a lot of money for the US Treasury, while at the same time probably not going far enough that it's going to do any significant damage to the US economy. If you look down at what the president was saying during the campaign last autumn, He was talking about a global baseline tariff of around 10 or 20 percent. And the UK obviously secured a deal at 10 percent for most of our sectors.

3:19The EU's at 15. Japan's at 15. We'll see what other deals get over the line by the end of the week. So in that sense, the new U.S. administration has secured its outcomes here. It wanted to see tariffs coming in to bring in revenue that allows them to invest in US industry. They're rebalancing global trade in goods in a way that suits them. So that's the reality of what we're dealing with. And it's about trying to get the best outcomes they have. And just very finally, William, on all of this, what about us here in the UK? Because Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants to finesse, essentially, our trade deals.

4:03Do we have any understanding what that actually means in reality? Well, the deal done in May is a good deal, but it needs to be implemented in full. And we still have areas like steel and aluminium tariffs, 25 % affecting UK goods going into the US. So I have no doubt the Prime Minister will be raising those issues with the President in the discussions today. We have got thousands of companies in membership in our chambers network across the UK who want to see that deal implemented to see tariffs cut on steel and aluminium products to zero, as was agreed back in May. That's a key priority. And if we can have other sectors of our goods trade that can see lower tariffs as well, Scotch whisky, for example, may be mentioned in the discussions today, then that is a good thing.

4:55The benefit of having a deal is it creates a stable platform to discuss trade with this new US administration, but knowing that there are no more or further unpredictable decisions that are going to affect your own industry or commerce here. Well, I kind of hate to break it to you, William, that Donald Trump is many things, but he is definitely unpredictable. And we will see how these things play out. But we really appreciate your time this morning there. William Bain there from the British Chamber of Commerce. Thank you.

5:28Now, England are the back-to-back European champions after conquering the world champion Spain on penalty. Chloe Kelly's winning spot kick and Hannah Hampton's saves proved decisive for the Lioness in a gripping contest that ended 1-1 after extra time. The Lionesses became the first England team in history to defend a major tournament title. So what has this year's tournament done to boost the women's game? Well, I'm delighted to say we can speak to Andrea Jorge, who is a sports reporter for City AM and joins us now. Very good morning to you. And I see you've written an article over the weekend saying that even before the final, these Euros essentially had set many records.

6:11Good morning. Thank you for having me. That is right. The 2022 women's Euros have broken record after record. And that was even before a ball had even been kicked in Switzerland. The tournament was the highest attended women's Euros ever. After Spain's semifinal against Germany, the attendance level across the tournament stood at around 623 ,000. And the figure will, of course, be higher once we include last night's numbers. And ticket sales for the tournament had already surpassed those of the women's Euros in 2022, Before the opening game in 2022, we saw attendance levels of 575 ,000, we're at 623 ,000 for this year.

6:56And one thing worth noting is that interest in this year's competition spans all of Europe. So we saw UEFA saying that 35 % of ticket sales came from international fans. And before the tournament started, their director for women's football said that actually fans from 114 nationalities bought tickets and travelled to Switzerland, which they said it's unprecedented in women's football. So we're seeing this trend, which is continuing in terms of growth in popularity of women's football. And it's not just a trend we're seeing in England, but across Europe as well. Andrea, the interesting thing here as well is it's not just among the fans, but also those crucial sponsors too, with I think sponsorship levels up some 145 % compared to 2022.

7:45Clearly, a lot of companies want to be associated with the Lionesses and with the game in general. 100%. And it all comes down to visibility. As visibility increases through tournaments like the Women's Euros, through the Women's World Cup, so does value of the game. and with increased value, we're seeing more sponsorships, more investments. So really, more growth in women's football is to be expected as a result. And like you said, sponsorship levels were projected to break records at these women's Euros. The revenue from this stream was forecasted to be 145 % higher than in 2022. So a really big increase in just three years.

8:22And let's talk about the future, though, because what's often happened in the past is you've got these big moments, the big tournaments, the Euros, the World Cup. And then when it comes down to the games week in, week out in terms of domestically here in England, it hasn't quite had the same attention or indeed the same attendees. Are we hoping or expecting that that may well change given those back to back win now for the INSs? Again, it's all about visibility. And so I believe that the domestic league can definitely benefit from this. they can leverage this increase in interest and visibility coming off the back of this incredible summer of football.

9:02That being said, there's got to be a way to almost capitalize on this increase in interest. You see these really big name players now who are very much celebrated by fans across England and across Europe. So it's a case of capitalizing on that brand value and increasing popularity of women's football in the domestic league as well as a result of the increase in interest coming from these big tournaments. OK, it is exciting times. We've got, of course, that victory parade tomorrow, which we'll bring you here on Sky News. Andrea there from City AM. Thank you very much. Indeed, thank you. OK, you're watching Business Live here on Sky News.

9:37Coming up in just a couple of minutes, the UK Health Security Agency has confirmed there are 38 cases of botulism linked to cosmetic toxin injections. We'll be speaking what it means for the industry to a health clinic up next.

9:53Best thing that's ever happened to you financially. Go. Easy. Sold my car on Carvana. Amazing offer. Really? I hit 200 on the scratcher. Did the scratcher come to your house and hand you a check? No. How many scratchers did you hit to get that? I hit a button on Carvana.com once. Okay, that's fair. It's like the lottery, except you always win. Not like the lottery at all, actually. Exactly. Inexplicably good. Offers worth bragging about. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Welcome back to Business Life. Now, as guys, Wilfred Frost has been speaking to one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, who is a hedge fund manager and recently wrote the book, How Countries Go Broke.

10:35And he told Wilf whether he thinks the risks of a bond market meltdown, which would cause a crisis in government borrowing, have been priced into the market both here and in the United States. I'd say bond and currency markets. And I want to say that's why I wrote the book. OK, my experience has been that, no, it's not priced in until these things actually start to happen. You get this complacency. And so now the question for you or for your audience is, is it priced into the markets? Well, I'll answer the question and say, no, it is not priced into the markets. Everyone always then wonders, what's the final trigger?

11:20Or how do we know that we're in that final stage rather than just the late stage? And in the book, I note that you say this, two big final risks are another round of QE, of quantitative easing, or the government trying to seize control of the central bank. It's fascinating. You wrote this book, obviously, earlier this year. It came out on June the 3rd. Are those two final late-stage potential triggers things that have materialized, or are you worried they're materializing in the last month since the book came out? They're materializing. And by the way, they're not surprising because if somebody had studied history, we would see that these things happen repeatedly.

12:07So, yes, I gave a number of indicators to look for. Also, the talk about capital controls and the like. Then the question is how the population deals with all of that. But, yes, that mechanics is those signals, and there are a number of them in the book. Those signals are now beginning to flash or flicker. Well, they also went on to discuss whether the UK is in a debt dupe loop in which the chancellor would continue to have to raise taxes to service the interest on government debt. And we'll ask whether the Wall Street veteran thought that the debt costs in the UK were higher and what the reason behind that might be.

12:50It's not a reserve currency anymore. OK, it's not an effective storehold of wealth anymore. OK, in the United States, OK, there's a certain element of I will buy dollars because I will transact in dollars and that'll be my vehicle for saving dollars. And I'm going to buy those dollars for that reason. They're not transacting in British pounds anymore. OK, that's over. When you look at the UK at the moment, you know, we put taxes up last fall. It's now a certainty pretty much that taxes are going to have to go up again this autumn. The tax burdens that are post 1951 high and the debt levels are at a record high.

13:34Are we in a debt doom loop at this point in the UK? We're in a debt doom loop, yeah. So talk us through that. How do we get out of it? The debt doom loop also is affecting capital flows. So the necessity for creating taxations that are then driving people away, they move for their capital reasons, a deterioration in conditions as the financial problems and the social problems worsen, having the effect of causing people to leave. people with money to leave. And there is only one way to deal with that. First of all, both of our countries need a strong leadership of a strong middle. They have to have the war between those of the left and those of the right begin to end because difficult choices are going to have to be made, you know, like our countries had in World War II, difficult choices are going to have to be made in order to get through that together.

14:50Now, the UK Health Security Agency has so far confirmed 38 cases of botulism linked to cosmetic toxin injections. Sky News has been told of several more. Health officials believe imported illegal Botox-like products are causing a rising number of botulism cases, a disease that is so rare that many doctors have never seen it before in their entire careers. Let's speak to Paul Reddy. He's medical director at the therapy clinic and joins us now. Paul, very good morning to you. I think my first question is, we talk about this being a rare disease. It's a disease many of us have heard of, but we don't frankly know what it is.

15:28Just explain what botulism is to our viewers. Botulism is caused by a bacteria called blood Clostridium botulinum, which is a member of a family of potential diseases. And most people will be familiar with the concept of gas gangrene, which is caused by another Clostridium-like bacteria. Botulism is extremely rare, as you mentioned. In fact, in my 48 years as a qualified doctor, I've never seen, heard, or encountered a case of it. So it's extremely rare it's what it actually does is it's a neurotransmitter blocker and what it does is the junction between a nerve and a muscle is like a bridge and it's there's an enzyme which is blocked by the botulinum bacterium and that is its mode of action and of course it came into It was originally discovered and used to treat children who had developed severe tremors and spasms, such as with, and also from that, it evolved into a drug that, I believe it was a Canadian general practitioner or ophthalmologist, decided to try it on someone's eyelids.

16:51and it spawned an industry which, as we know, is growing incrementally. Well, it is. And lots of people are ordering these injections, aren't they, online. And that's the concern, is that there is not the same level, essentially, of scrutiny of these. What is, frankly, a medical procedure? Absolutely. It's a prescribed drug and therefore the only people who should be prescribing it are doctors and a limited number of nurses who have done the prescriber course. What's the way to deal with this then? As you say, people, you know, we live in a very health conscious age and an age in which obviously people are willing to try lots of different cosmetic procedures.

17:36How do you prevent people from buying things online that are often cheaper and can be delivered directly to the door? Can you ban this stuff? Yeah, I think it's extremely difficult. We're all aware of the legal products coming through the Internet. And we've all seen friends and members of family being able to order things that in a normal situation, not just drugs, but other products as well. And that is extremely difficult, if not impossible to control. But the one thing that we should be actually doing is actually have governmental regulation. And since I took up as an aesthetic physician seven, eight years ago, there was a lot of talk at the time about it.

18:22But there has been very little forward movement in terms of progressing. And that's one of the reasons why we at therapy are extremely diligent about the type of people we employ to ensure that they have the proper qualifications and that they are properly trained in carrying out various type of aesthetic procedures. OK, Paul, it's fascinating and it is slightly scary as well, given the fact that lots of people seem to be getting themselves in trouble with these injections. But we appreciate your insight. And indeed, I think, as you've rightly pointed out, education is going to be a big part of that.

18:56That is Paul there from the therapy clinic. Thank you. Pleasure. That's all for today's Sky News Business Podcast. You can follow the feed on your podcast app to make sure you don't miss an episode. and there's plenty of business news and analysis on the Sky News app. Goodbye for now.