(#1) Elise’s Top Ten: The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

0:07Hey, everyone. You're listening to TED Talks Daily, the show where we bring you new ideas is to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. Almost every day for many years, we've shared a TED Talk with you. That's thousands of talks. Over the years, I've listened and watched so many, and they've done all sorts of things for me. They've made me laugh, cry, laugh and cry at the same time. They've pushed me to think again on ideas or taught me new things. No matter what, I've been so inspired by so many of the ideas that have come before me. And after all these years of hosting this show, one of the top questions I still get is, what are your favorite talks?

0:51Which talks stood out to you? You're about to find out. I'm so excited to welcome you to our first ever TED Talks Daily playlist, kicking off with a list of my top 10 TED Talks that you shouldn't miss. I have a lot more favorites than just 10, to be clear, but we had to start somewhere. And for me, these stand out. We've dropped all 10 of these talks on the feed at the same time, so you can binge them all now or return on your own time, just like I do. So we're going to kick off this playlist by looking inward, which is where a lot of change begins. Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert has given a few TED Talks over the years, all before my time as host of this show.

1:32But his 2014 talk called The Psychology of Your Future Self contains a concept I think about again and again, and I return to it when I offer advice to other people. The idea that the person who we think we are today isn't the same as the person we're going to be five or ten years from now. This notion that our preferences and personalities aren't fixed, even though sometimes we think they are. Here's Dan.

2:07You know, at every stage of our lives, we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we're going to become. And then when we become those people, we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made. So young people pay good money to get tattoos removed that teenagers paid good money to get. Middle-aged people rush to divorce people who young adults rushed to marry. Older adults work hard to lose what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain. On and on and on. The question is, as a psychologist that fascinates me, is why do we make decisions that our future selves so often regret?

2:46Now, I think one of the reasons I'll try to convince you today is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time. Every one of you knows that the rate of change slows over the human lifespan, that your children seem to change by the minute, but your parents seem to change by the year. But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl? Is it teenage years? Is it middle age? Is it old age? The answer, it turns out, for most people is now, wherever now happens to be. What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an illusion, an illusion that history, our personal history, has just come to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.

3:40Let me give you some data to back up that claim. So here's a study of change in people's personal values over time. You probably know that as you grow, as you age, the balance of these values shifts. So how does it do so? Well, we asked thousands of people. We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years. and the other is to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years. And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis because it allowed us to compare the predictions of people, say, 18 years old, to the reports of people who were 28, and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

4:19Here's what we found. First of all, you're right. Change does slow down as we age. But second, you're wrong because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think. At every age from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years. We call this the end of history illusion. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, 18-year-olds anticipate changing only as much as 50-year-olds actually do. Now, it's not just values, it's all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality.

5:03Neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extroversion, and conscientiousness. Again, we ask people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years. What we found, once again, the rate of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade. And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation.

5:42What's your favorite hobby? What's your favorite kind of music? People can name these things. We ask half of them to tell us, do you think that that will change over the next 10 years? and half of them to tell us, you did that change over the last 10 years. And what we find, well, people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they'll have in 10 years. The vacation they most enjoy now is the one they'll enjoy in 10 years. And yet, people who are 10 years older all say, eh, you know, that's really changed. Does any of this matter? Is this just a form of misprediction that doesn't have consequences?

6:16No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why. It bedevils our decision-making in important ways. Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musician 10 years ago. Now, we ask people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now. And on average, people said they would pay$129 for that ticket. And yet when we ask them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite 10 years ago perform today, they say only$80. Now in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number.

6:59But we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability. Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining. Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be. And then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine, it's not likely to happen. Sorry, when people say, I can't imagine that, they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination and not about the unlikelihood of the event that they're describing.

7:36The bottom line is, time is a powerful force. It transforms our preferences, it reshapes our values, it alters our personalities. We seem to appreciate this fact, but only in retrospect, only when we look backwards do we realize how much change happens in a decade. It's as if, for most of us, the present is a magic time. It's a watershed on the timeline. It's the moment at which we finally become ourselves. Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they're finished. The person you are right now is as transient, as fleeting, and as temporary as all the people you've ever been. The one constant in our life is change.

8:23Thank you.

8:30That was Dan Gilbert speaking at TED 2014. This is the first of 10 talks from the TED archives that we are reposting as part of our first TED Talks Daily podcast playlist. If you enjoyed this one, stick around because this pairs perfectly with Shankar Vedantam's talk up next. If you're curious about TED's curation, find out more at TED.com slash curation guidelines. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This talk was produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Green, Lucy Little, and Tonsika Sungmarnivong. This episode was mixed by Lucy Little. Additional support from Emma Taubner and Daniela Ballarezzo.

9:11I'm Elise Hu. Thanks for listening.