Is This the New Trump Doctrine?

5 Jan 2026 · 53 min · 20 chapters

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In short

Podcast Notes: The 1600 - Episode: Is This the New Trump Doctrine?

Overview Podcast Title: The 1600 Host: Carlo Versano Guests: Gabe Fleisher (Wake Up To Politics), Jesús Mesa (Newsweek) Episode Focus: Analyzing Donald Trump's foreign policy doctrine, particularly following the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, the President of Venezuela, amidst significant geopolitical implications.

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Key Themes and Discussions

  1. Capture of Nicolás Maduro
  2. The episode begins with the shocking event of the U.S. capturing Nicolás Maduro from his home in Venezuela.
  3. Maduro faces charges of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism in the U.S.
  4. The discussion highlights the implications of this action on U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics.
  1. Reactions from the Venezuelan Diaspora
  2. Jesús Mesa reports from Miami, where the Venezuelan diaspora is celebrating Maduro's capture.
  3. People express gratitude towards Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, feeling that a long-awaited change has happened after decades.
  4. Focus on the excitement and uncertainty about the future leadership in Venezuela, with some leaning towards María Corina Machado as a potential leader.
  1. Trump’s Foreign Policy Agenda
  2. The conversation transitions to the notion of a "Trump Doctrine" in foreign policy, especially regarding Latin America.
  3. Gabe Fleisher argues that while Trump's methods appear unprecedented, they fit a broader historical pattern of U.S. interventionism.
  4. There’s skepticism about the coherence of Trump’s foreign policy and whether it can be labeled as a distinct doctrine.
  1. Domino Effect and Geopolitical Ramifications
  2. Discussion about how this shift could affect relations with other Latin American countries like Colombia and Cuba, and how it could reshape U.S. influence in the hemisphere.
  3. Mention of potential backlash or chaos in Venezuela following Maduro's ousting and concerns about emerging factions and instability.
  1. Domestic Political Reactions
  2. Analysis of how Democrats might respond politically to the situation, with a focus on their potential lack of a cohesive message.
  3. Concerns about how left-leaning politicians might struggle to balance criticism of Maduro while addressing the implications of U.S. intervention.
  1. Future Leadership in Venezuela
  2. Questions arise about who will lead Venezuela in the absence of Maduro, with discussions around the military’s role and potential candidates like Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado.
  3. Concerns about the long-term stability and governance in Venezuela if the U.S. does not take an active role.
  1. Congressional Oversight and War Powers
  2. Mention of the War Powers Resolution and discussions among lawmakers regarding Trump's unilateral action in Venezuela.
  3. Skepticism about whether Congress will effectively check Trump’s actions, given historical precedents of executive overreach.
  1. Marco Rubio’s Position
  2. Rubio is portrayed as a rising star within the administration due to his expertise on Latin American issues, with potential implications for future elections.
  3. The conversation speculates on Rubio's prospects for the 2028 presidential race and his relationship with Trump.

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Key Takeaways

  • Major Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy: The capture of Maduro signifies a bold U.S. move that could redefine American engagement in Latin America.
  • Celebration and Uncertainty: The Venezuelan diaspora's excitement is tempered with concerns about future leadership and stability.
  • Mixed Reactions from Politicians: While some support Trump's actions, others fear the long-term consequences of intervention.
  • Lack of a Clear Doctrine: Trump's foreign policy may lack a consistent strategy, complicating predictions about future actions in the region.
  • Political Landscape Ahead of 2028: Marco Rubio is seen as a potential frontrunner for the presidency, leveraging his expertise in foreign policy amid a changing political landscape.

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Conclusion The episode navigates complex issues surrounding U.S. foreign intervention, reactions from diaspora communities, and the political ramifications of Trump's actions in Venezuela. With the potential for significant changes in U.S.-Latin American relations and internal political dynamics, the future remains uncertain.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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The Fall of Maduro: A Political Earthquake

0:45 to 4:40

Discussion of Nicolas Maduro's arrest and its implications for US foreign policy.

“A remarkable downfall for a man who led that country of 30 million people just a couple days ago, as I just said.”

Reactions from the Venezuelan Diaspora

4:40 to 8:00

Insight into the reactions and sentiments of the Venezuelan community in Miami.

“Is that true from the reporting that you've been doing?”

Political Dynamics in Venezuela Post-Maduro

8:00 to 11:30

Exploration of the potential political landscape in Venezuela after Maduro's fall.

“that President Trump is not bluffing, that what happened on Saturday is an example of President Trump taking action on things that he really wants to take.”

The Trump Doctrine: Unpacking Foreign Policy Ambiguities

11:30 to 14:03

Analysis of the perceived Trump doctrine and its implications for Latin America.

“He's the author of the Wake Up to Politics sub-stacks.”

The Role of the National Security Apparatus

14:03 to 14:35

Exploration of how the National Security Council has been affected under current leadership.

“Kind of, you know, intelligence committee and, you know, majority and minority leaders on both sides.”

Decision-Making in the Trump Administration

14:36 to 15:10

Discussion on the ad hoc decision-making process regarding foreign policy.

“And I think there's all right to criticize decisions that have been produced by those processes.”

Planning for Post-Maduro Venezuela

15:11 to 17:20

Analysis of the planning (or lack thereof) for Venezuela's future after a military strike.

“And and, you know, by all appearances, not a whole lot of planning.”

Contradictions in U.S. Justification for Intervention

17:21 to 19:31

Examining the inconsistent reasons provided for intervening in Venezuela.

“she went in this kind of public speech, really kind of, you know, tearing him apart and saying this was an illegitimate operation.”

Regional Dominance and Strategic Interests

19:32 to 22:42

Discussion on the U.S. goal of preventing foreign influence in Latin America.

“Now, the Machado angle is interesting, right?”

Examining the 'Trump Doctrine'

22:43 to 25:42

Insights into whether a coherent foreign policy strategy exists under Trump.

“I mean, I think it reminds me a lot of the calculus behind the tariff.”
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The Consequences of Military Intervention

25:43 to 28:00

Reflection on the potential unintended consequences of U.S. intervention in Venezuela.

“of shows of force is much less interested and kind of much more protracted kind of wars.”

Trump's Regret Over Venezuela

28:00 to 29:25

Discussion on Trump's past regrets about not intervening in Venezuela and his current stance.

“And we've heard Trump kind of muse about regretting that he didn't oust Maduro then.”

The Role of Congress in Foreign Affairs

29:25 to 31:00

Exploration of Congress's influence and limitations regarding Trump's foreign policy decisions.

“But I think the idea of him as an interventionist is much more of a piece with kind of how Donald Trump views his role in the world and views himself more broadly.”

Republican Response to Trump's Actions

31:00 to 34:54

Analysis of differing Republican perspectives on Trump's military actions and intervention in Venezuela.

“But I think it goes back – what you're saying really goes back to that great – I forget who even said it.”

Challenges of Puppet Governments

34:54 to 37:38

Examination of the complexities and potential issues of relying on puppet governments in foreign policy.

“But Trump does have this way of really kind of quelling that sort of dissent.”

Stability and Future of Venezuela

37:38 to 42:00

Discussion on the uncertain future of Venezuela post-intervention and the risks involved.

“Now it seems to me like we're going down that road.”

Unpacking Trump's Foreign Policy Approach

42:00 to 43:35

Discussing the implications of Trump's foreign policy actions and their outcomes.

“And I think, you know, there's just a huge amount of instability that I think is at least possible.”

The Democrats' Response to Trump's Actions

43:35 to 45:55

Exploring how the Democrats are navigating Trump's foreign policy and its political implications.

“And, you know, I'll leave that to the Venezuelans to figure out amongst themselves.”

Political Calculations Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

45:55 to 48:26

Examining the electoral stakes for Democrats in light of recent international developments.

“can force a vote on, you know, any sort of kind of war powers matter.”

Marco Rubio's Role in the Future Political Landscape

48:26 to 52:28

Analyzing Marco Rubio's potential rise in the political hierarchy and his prospects for 2028.

“Yeah, no, that's that's my take as well.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00The United States of America just black bagged a sitting head of state from his bedroom and brought him to the US to face charges of drug trafficking. What does this mean? Where are we going? Is there a Trump doctrine at play here? Or are we all just in the land of wolves now? You're not a wolf. And this is the land of wolves now. This country was stone cold dead. Good Monday from Newsweek headquarters at the top of the World Trade Center. I'm Carlo Versano and this is The 1600. We're coming on the air today in the aftermath of a remarkable weekend in American politics and geopolitics. Several blocks from me now, Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela or the president of Venezuela until a couple of days ago, at least, is currently in a courtroom in lower Manhattan where he is facing charges of narco terrorism and conspiracy to traffic drugs into the United States.

0:52A remarkable downfall for a man who led that country of 30 million people just a couple days ago, as I just said. So we have a lot to discuss. We have a lot to get into. We have domestic political blowback here. We have questions about Trump's President Trump's foreign policy agenda and the so-called Donro Doctrine that he appears to be making use of with a much more heavily focused policy when it comes to regime change in Latin America and also just U.S. foreign policy in our own hemisphere. But first we have Jesus Mesa, my colleague, my reporter. He is back in Miami. Jesus, good to see you, my friend.

1:34Looks nice and warm there. Good to see you, too. I yeah, I feel like I should just send you to live there now since there's just been so much news down in southern Florida lately. We sent you there this weekend so you could get some reaction from members of the Venezuelan diaspora down there in southern Florida, particularly in Doral in Miami-Dade. So what is the scene on the ground? What has it been since Saturday, since this incredible mission to to to basically oust Maduro and bring him back to the U.S.? Well, it has been a party like for the last two days, people in Doral, the Venezuelan diaspora has gathered here in this restaurant called El Arepaso that has become like the, I would say the unofficial hub of the Venezuelan diaspora here.

2:19And they're just partying, like celebrating. They are very happy, very grateful with President Donald Trump, very grateful with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And they are happy. They are joyful. They are just happy to say something that they never thought that was going to happen. And it happened on Saturday. And I think that people are still realizing what happened. And they are not that worried about what is going to happen next. I think that by now what they are thinking is, OK, we got this done. Where we cross from with what's going to happen next. Why do you think that is? Because that's that would be I would think that there would be more consternation down there about.

2:59what is coming next, right? Are we going to be able to sort of keep this, you know, this regime in place without Maduro until they're able to do actual elections again? Is there any sense on the ground there about who will run in those elections, who they want to see run, assuming they happen? I think that, Pablo, what I can say, and I spoke with a lot of Venezuelan migrants yesterday, and what I can say is that they are not really worried about that right now. They are very focused on what happened on Saturday. They are happy that Maduro is gone. Obviously, they know that there are some challenges.

3:35They are a little bit worried about some of the work of the president, talking about maybe leaving the current VP now, president of Venezuela, well, Chelsea Rodriguez there. But still, they really believe that this is something that has to be done. And they are not rushing anything. They are not thinking ahead of anything. Obviously, they believe and they want Maria Corina Machado to be the next president. But by now, what they are thinking is, OK, we got this done. This is something that we were waiting for for the last 26 years. And yeah, for I can say, like, actually, people were kind of upset with the people that were kind of complaining about it, like if this was legal or not, if Trump overreached his powers.

4:18They don't really care about it. They just wanted Maduro gone. And that's what they got. So I'm going to talk with our guest coming up, Gabe Fleischer, about Machado more. What's the take there? Because I was under the impression that she was going to be the shoe-in to run this country, at least in the interim. He threw her under the bus immediately on Saturday. He said she doesn't have the support. Is that true from the reporting that you've been doing? Did she not have the support inside Venezuela? Well, I would say that she's more popular outside of Venezuela than inside for Venezuela. And the thing is that I think that Trump learned from his mistakes in 2017 and 2018 when he supported Juan Guaido.

5:02And he realized that he has to talk with the people that have absolute power. And right now, well, Maria Corina is very popular. Maybe she won the election in 2024. But the reality is that he doesn't have any power over the military right now. He's currently sitting. Edmundo Gonzalez is sitting in Madrid right now. So from Trump's perspective, I would say that I have to deal with the people that are already in charge and that are the people that have power right now. And obviously, well, Maduro is gone. But there are a lot of people over there. There is Yosnado Cabello over there. There is Vladimir Padrino over there.

5:37And obviously, the Rodriguez brothers, Deosky and Jorge. So the people are kind of understanding that. They are, as I told you before, they are not thinking very ahead of it. I think that they realize that this is something that is going to be far. Maybe that is going to take months or maybe years. But they are kind of grateful that something happened because for the last 10 years, they have tried everything and they never got nothing. When you're talking to Venezuelan Americans down there, is there any sense that people who have, you know, who are now naturalized citizens or on green cards or on temporary protective status here, that they would go back to Venezuela if the country was able to stabilize in the absence of Maduro?

6:19Well, I have mixed reactions about that. When I spoke with the younger generation of Venezuelans, the ones who are under early 20s or maybe teenagers, they don't really see themselves being there because that's a country that they don't even know or they barely remember. But if you speak with the elder, you speak with older people, when you speak with seniors, what you can feel is that they really miss that country. And they really remember when Venezuela was great, when Venezuela was thriving. And this is something that happens a lot with the Latin America diaspora in the United States, that they stay here, they make some money, they work, they work so hard.

6:55And maybe for their retirement, they go back. They go back to Colombia, they go back to Venezuela, they go back to Peru, they go back to Ecuador to, well, to spend their last years in better weather, surrounded by family. And this is something that some of the elder generation of Venezuelans told me that they will if things get better, maybe they are thinking of going back to spend their retirement there or being surrounded by family. That's it's it's Alex reaction, I would say, like two different reactions from the elder and the younger generation. That makes sense. And then you mentioned Colombia.

7:29Obviously, there's going to be huge geopolitical consequences to this. And I know that's not the story that you're working on, but I know that you are Colombian. What is your sense on what, and I know that you've done a lot of reporting in Mexico as well. What comes next for those countries, for the Cubans, the Colombians and the Mexicans, now that Trump is making such massive changes on the ground in Latin America? I was just today in a press conference with Carlos Jimenez and Rick Scott. What they said is that the Cuban regime still be listening to what President Trump is saying. that President Trump is not bluffing, that what happened on Saturday is an example of President Trump taking action on things that he really wants to take.

8:14And I think that it's very clear from now that the United States want to have a very strong influence on their atmosphere. Well, obviously, the threat to Colombia are a different thing because if they like it or not, well, President Petro was elected three years ago. But his living up is in six months, I think, after the elections in May. So I think this is more like a political fight, more like, I would say, nothing that is going to be taken so serious. But if I was Cuban, if I was Miguel Diaz-Canel, I think that I will be worried about it. Yeah, and Marco Rubio has basically said to the Cubans, you don't have much time.

8:58So I think let me actually ask you about that. What is how are people seeing Marco Rubio down there? I mean, I know that, you know, he's he's always been popular in Florida. He comes from he's a floor. He's a Floridian. But he's obviously he's the he's the bell of the ball, I think, right now on this. Right. He seems like he's the guy who's, you know, really been running point on. I mean, this has been his whole political project, and he just successfully deposed somebody, you know, in a country that he's been trying to at least exert power over for his whole career, right? Well, Carlo, I would say that he's a star down here.

9:33He was popular six months ago, one year ago. Now he's a superstar. Everyone was clapping about Marco Rubio. Everyone was claiming his name. You had posters with his face, with Trump, with Mario Corina Machado, with Edmundo Gonzalez. I think that people really understand the role that Michael Rubio had on all of this. And well, you can tell that Marco Rubio was very involved on this, going to the press yesterday, speaking with every major network, explaining the plan that the United States have for Venezuela. And you can tell that at least in Florida, he got a very, very positive reaction from the people that are actually loyal to him.

10:14And I would say that Rubio, I was just in the press conference today with Scott and Jimenez, as I told you before. And every time that they mentioned Marco Rubio's name, everyone started to cheer up and clap. Like it was, it was very surprising, but it tells you a lot about like the state of play. And I think that something that Scott mentioned very, and I thought that it was interesting, is that Rubio was the one who was always raising these topics to President Trump all the time. Like, hey, we have to take care of Venezuela. We have to take care of Cuba. We cannot allow Hezbollah to be in our atmosphere.

10:47We cannot allow the Russia to be in the atmosphere. And he got it. He got I got something done, something that no one could believe. No, it's it really is remarkable. And he has he has clearly he's just been much better than anyone else. The administration at articulating what the actual plan is here to the extent there is one. We'll talk about that in a second with with Gabe. Jesus, thanks for all your reporting. Keep us honest. I know you're going to be down there for a few days, and hopefully we can bring you back on and find out more of your work in the newsletter, of course, and on newsweek.com.

11:18Yeah, thank you, Carlo. Happy to be here. Okay, thanks again to Jesus Mesa, our Newsweek reporter who's on the ground in Miami among the Venezuelan diaspora and community down there. I have now with me Gabe Fleischer. Gabe's in D.C. He's the author of the Wake Up to Politics sub-stacks. Great morning newsletter. Highly recommend it. He's a political journalist, a writer, a reporter. Gabe, you're in Washington, D.C. Seems like a fair amount, fair amount of news today. Always is, always is. But definitely, especially today. I was just telling someone I was like, you know, they were like, I don't know how you you handled, you know, being in this business of having to cover this administration.

11:56I'm like, actually, they kind of make it easy for us in a lot of ways. Right. Because there is no shortage of news. So, Gabe, so we're talking on Monday. Obviously, we're coming off of this the weekend in which we deposed the head of state of a sovereign government, Nicolas Maduro, who is, as we're speaking right now, a few blocks away from where I'm sitting in New York, where he is about to be charged with a federal indictment on charges of narco terrorism and and drug trafficking. So let's put that a little bit aside for the moment, since I think if you're watching this or listening to this, you probably realize that the drug thing has always sort of been the pretext for what's actually going on here, what we're doing in Venezuela and Latin America.

12:45So I have a theory that there is a Trump doctrine at play here that, you know, he hasn't done a particularly good job of of articulating. But you have a great piece this morning that's headlined. There is no Trump doctrine. And you start out with a great quote here. American foreign policy has never been perfect, but it has rarely been unplanned. What do you mean by that? I mean, you know, American foreign policy, like I said, you know, there's no question. You know, I think what Donald Trump did this past weekend in Venezuela, you know, it's it's some of the specifics unprecedented, but obviously fits the broad strokes of operations we've seen for decades and have been criticized for decades.

13:22And there's no question. And some cases have led to very unstable and chaotic situations. So there's no question that, you know, critics of American foreign policy, you know, there's all all right to kind of pick over your decades and decades of of decisions that in some cases have led to great calamities. But one thing we can say about previous administrations, when we look at the record of how those decisions were produced, we can see a very clear process that that's pretty followed in pretty much every administration that kind of goes up the chain. You know, in that newsletter, I kind of walk through, you know, within the NSC, the National Security Council.

13:55You know, there's a process. You go to the deputies committee and all the deputies kind of discuss a decision. Then the principals committee and all the kind of, you know, cabinet secretaries discuss a decision. And they kick it up to the president and they talk with members of Congress, you know, the gang of eight, so to speak. Right. Kind of, you know, intelligence committee and, you know, majority and minority leaders on both sides. They talk to allies, the U.N. You know, there's kind of all these kind of stakeholders that are kind of brought in. This is the blob. This is what this is what MAGA calls the blob.

14:20Right. They mean that, you know, they're not saying that as a good thing, but, you know, there is a a blob of the national security apparatus that does work on these issues. And it seems like they've been sidelined in with regard to Venezuela. Exactly right. Love them or hate them. And I think there's all right to criticize decisions that have been produced by those processes. And so maybe lack of a process will lead to better outcomes. It's obviously too early to say. But that's exactly right. The National Security Council, which is normally the kind of incubator for these sorts of decisions within the White House, has been completely decimated.

14:52There's been entire directorates within the NSC that have just been sidelined. We have a very unique situation for the first time since the 1970s where the National Security Advisor is the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio playing both roles. So you really get into Rubio of the inner circle where where you really you just it seems to give Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth, a few other key people in a room with Donald Trump and kind of really ad hoc making these decisions. And and, you know, by all appearances, not a whole lot of planning. And while the military strike and kind of the operation to capture Maduro seems to have been expertly planned, it was clearly very precisely executed.

15:28But the planning for what would come next for the day after, there just doesn't seem to have been a lot of thought put into that. You know, we've seen different officials come up with different plans for what should be happening next. You've seen Trump, Rubio kind of vacillate at different points. You know, are we in charge? Are we not? Is the opposition in charge? Is the, you know, former vice president, then vice president, now acting president in charge? Will there be elections? You know, there's all these huge questions which Trump has largely just answered by, you know, we're going to run it, which, you know, is very unclear in what capacity that means.

15:59So the way I'm looking at it, and I think that you're I mean, you're right. There's obviously the communication from the White House on this has been, you know, has gone from being, first of all, just not non-existent. I mean, they didn't even bother trying to sell this to the American public like the administrations typically do when we're doing these foreign adventures. But so I do think that while they have not communicated it well at all, I do think that there are elements of a plan. And the reason why I think that is because it seems pretty obvious that there was and there hasn't been reporting to to back this up yet.

16:31But it seems to me my gut instinct is that there was a pre-negotiated deal here with Rodriguez, who's the vice president. She was probably if you had if I had to guess, I would say that she was probably in on this. We do know that the CIA had assets who were in within Maduro's inner circle. So I think it's possible that there is a there is there is at least a plan in the short term. You know, there's a reason why this woman, the vice president, is being kept as the, you know, sort of, you know, interim head of state, even though she is a backer of Maduro and she's, you know, sort of a radical in her own right.

17:08So I don't know. Am I am I wrong? Am I seeing some am I seeing pieces of the puzzle that that aren't there? You know, I think you could be right. As you said, there's no reporting necessarily to back that up. We do know, you know, right after Trump said that Rodrigo's would be the one in charge, she went in this kind of public speech, really kind of, you know, tearing him apart and saying this was an illegitimate operation. And we heard from the White House kind of saying that's just what she's saying publicly. That's what she has to tell her own people privately. That's not what we're hearing.

17:34And indeed, just a few hours later, we saw a much more conciliatory statement from her That would maybe suggest that there is a lot more cooperation going on with them behind the scenes. So I think that's possible. I think the issue with it is, as I kind of wrote this morning, you know, and as you said, you know, there's been no real communicated reason why this strike happened in the first place. You know, as I wrote, you know, the president offered at least six different explanations for why it happened. And because of that, if we don't know why it happened, we can't know what we want next. And so, you know, we were hearing from different elements of the administration that this was about, you know, restoring democracy in Venezuela, about liberating the Venezuelan people.

18:14You know, if that's the case, that doesn't really track with having Rodriguez in charge, because, of course, if you believe Maduro was illegitimately elected, you believe the same thing about her. And so, you know, if if you think this is more about oil, then maybe that is what you said that, you know, all Trump cares about is extracting more oil from Venezuela, in which case all he needs is someone, you know, atop the kind of scheme, no matter how they got it. Right. You can kind of, you know, help help make that happen. And, you know, I just think the issue is, you know, potentially there is this kind of really grand executed strategy here.

18:47The reports we do know are that it seems like Trump's decisions about all of these figures are a lot more ad hoc and a lot more related to their personal relationships with them. We know, according to reporting from The New York Times, that, you know, a big reason that he decided eventually to go in and capture Maduro was simply that Maduro was dancing too much and was kind of Trump felt he was being mocked by Maduro. That Maduro was like an unserious figure, as the reporting says, and that was one reason he took him. And that we know that one reason that the administration decided not to kind of ally itself with Maria Machado, which is what you'd think they might do if, you know, as Marco Rubio is saying, you know, this was about restoring democracy and bringing a democratic transition.

19:25Reportedly, according to The Washington Post, one reason they're not doing that is because she accepted the Nobel Peace Prize last year, which, of course, President Trump wanted instead. And so it's all possible that there is a very clear strategy here about going with Rodriguez over Machado, but that's a bit undercut by some of the reporting we've seen that suggests that it's a lot more about they felt, you know, he felt the kind of relationship with her in a lot of the conversations, negotiations that had gone on and didn't feel one with Machado because he was upset about the Nobel Peace Prize.

19:53So it's always possible that there's a grander strategy at play, but but it does seem a lot more relational, a lot more ad hoc and a lot less kind of rooted in any kind of specific ideological or philosophical vision for the region. as it always is with him. Now, the Machado angle is interesting, right? Because this was so when this went down on Saturday morning, I thought to myself, having covered this for a while now that, OK, they have Machado ready to go. They're going to install her as the president, as she didn't win the election in 2024 because she couldn't run. But it was her. It was basically her.

20:23It was her opposition party. She is the opposition leader. She won the Nobel Prize. So he throws her under the bus immediately, says in that press conference on Saturday. She doesn't have the support. She doesn't have the support. Now, I think there's possible that there are elements of truth to that, right? Because she didn't have the backing of the military. The opposition party didn't otherwise when the you know, when they won the election in 24, if the military was behind them, they would have deposed or couped Maduro then probably. So the fact that they that that didn't happen to me suggests that there probably is an element of truth that she didn't have the support that at least Trump and Rubio and the like thought that that she needed there.

21:05But it is remarkable. Right. This is a woman who has been sucking up to Trump for, you know, for months, has talked about how, you know, he should have won the Peace Prize, I believe. Right. I think that exactly. So, yeah, I mean, in some ways she becomes another person in a long list of people who have, you know, given fealty to Trump only to be sort of thrown under the bus or kicked in the back at that moment. But back to the justification. So this is you make the very good point in the newsletter that he's just the president has been all over the place with these justifications. Right. You talked about how he's talking about, you know, this is this is for the Venezuelan people.

21:42Right. This is which reminds me of Dick Cheney talking about how we're going into Iraq and going to be greeted as liberators. You know, then he talks he's pretty clear that this is also that oil is a big part of it. I mean, he's made no, you know, he said that outright. They've also talked about how this is an immigration play, right? Can we get some of the Venezuelans who are illegally in the country here backed into Venezuela now? Or at the very least, can we stop a tide of migration from Venezuela? Then there's the drug angle, right? My theory is that there's more to this about sort of the hemispheric dominance, right?

22:21We want we do not want China, Russia, Iran anywhere in our backyard. And they all three of those countries had to differing levels. You know, we're doing work in Venezuela. So we're essentially saying to them that that ain't cool. You can play elsewhere, but you cannot play in our backyard. Do you see do you see anything to that? I do. I mean, I think like everything in the Trump administration, it's kind of all of the above. I mean, I think it reminds me a lot of the calculus behind the tariff. You know, If we go back to Liberation Day when President Trump was imposing these kind of sweeping worldwide tariffs, very similarly, we heard all these different rationales, you know, depending if you're asking Scott Besson or Howard Lutnick or the president, you know, was this about, you know, paying down the deficit?

23:03Was this about restoring American manufacturing? You know, was this about generating revenue? You know, there's all these different sorts of rationales. And I think each official kind of has a different rationale. And then you kind of have Trump who just kind of really likes tariffs. And similarly here, he's been talking about tariffs for a long time. He's also been talking about kind of extracting oil from other countries for a long time, specifically Venezuela, but then in other places. So I think he also brings his kind of idiosyncratic kind of, you know, focus. He said back back during Iraq, he was like, I don't understand why we didn't take the oil.

23:31Something something to that effect. Right. Exactly. Yeah. It's not exactly. It's not new to new to him. I think the hemisphere dominance, I think there's definitely something to that. And I mean, to the extent we have had a articulated Trump doctrine, it has been about, you know, we've heard Marco Rubio saying, you know, we hear this comparison to Iraq and to Libya and to Syria. This is very different. This administration doesn't do regime change there. We're doing regime change here in our own hemisphere. Again, I think that just is I think there's probably something to that. And I think clearly the president, at least right now, is focusing in, you know, on the Western Hemisphere, not just Venezuela, but Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Greenland.

24:10You know, the list kind of goes all of which all of which he threatened military action against on Air Force One last night. Right. Yeah. So that's always the thing when you're covering. Exactly. You never know with this guy, you know what it's if it's just bluster or if there's something to it. Right. I mean, I thought that, you know, I thought that the his his talk against Maduro was bluster until they moved the Gerald Ford down there in August. And I was like, OK, well, something is clearly up. And as it turns out. Right. Yes. You do never know. And I'll just say on the point, I do think that's a bit undercut.

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24:40And so we've heard these Trump officials kind of defending this by saying this is the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. This is the Don Roe Doctrine, as Trump has said. You know, it's just squarely focused on, as you said, you know, that, you know, we see China, we see Russia, Iran, these other countries. in our backyard. We can't have that. And yet then you hear Trump talking about also threatening to strike Iran again, obviously, you know, now that Iran is threatening, you know, protesters that are protesting in Iran. And so that is a little bit undercut. You know, is this a doctrine that's really squarely focused on the Western hemisphere or is it a lot broader than that?

25:13I mean, obviously, if you look at Trump foreign policy up to this point, you can't make the case that it's been focused on the Western hemisphere. You know, he's trying to create peace in the Middle East, in Ukraine. Now he's already bombed Iran once. Now he's talking about doing it again. So I just think it's a, I think you see attempts by Trump officials to kind of shoehorn this into kind of, you know, a very kind of clear and concise philosophy. And I think the reality is that Donald Trump, as ever, you know, is not much of a foreign policy philosopher or any sort of policy philosopher. He kind of goes with his whims, does things as he wants, enjoys kind of big kind of shows of force is much less interested and kind of much more protracted kind of wars.

25:51The issue being, of course, it's not always up to the president, you know, what becomes, you know, a brief, really quick surgical operation and what becomes a much longer and much more chaotic situation. Well, I mean, yeah, that's that's just what scares me, having been burned by so many, you know, of our military misadventures in the past is, you know, we talked about this in the newsletter and on the podcast many times. It's just the law of unintended consequences, right? Like once you start going down these paths of destabilizing these countries, you don't know. I mean, in some ways, right?

26:19I mean, you know, it's true. Rubio has this great quote that I think you put in your newsletter. He was on Face the Nation on Sunday. I'm just going to quote him. I think this was very revealing. He said, quote, I still think that a lot of people analyze everything that happens in foreign policy through the lens of what happened from 2001 through 2015 or 16. The whole foreign policy apparatus thinks everything is Libya, Everything is Iraq. Everything is Afghanistan. This is not the Middle East. And our mission here is very different. This is the Western Hemisphere, end quote. So he's basically making the point that we've been talking to that, like, this is not Iraq was a different ballgame.

26:53Right. There's not you know, we don't have to deal with Islamic fundamentalism. There's no Shia versus Sunni, you know, civil war that's going to break out in Venezuela. But but again, Venezuela is a big country. There's 30 million people there. Right. We don't you know, there's all sorts of factions, guerrilla fighters in that country. We don't know how that's going to play out in some sort of, you know, protracted time of instability. Right. But back to Iran, what do you what do you make of his hawkishness towards the Iranians? Is it possible that he sees the Ayatollah and the mullahs as on the ropes with these new protests and he's going to just sort of try and do what he can to exert maximum pressure as he typically does?

27:36Or is there – I mean the fact that he's saying that we could potentially strike Iran if they hit protesters, that would be a huge escalation that no one has asked for or wants, I think. I think it's certainly possible. I mean, I think, you know, one thing, you know, if you can kind of draw a bit of a parallel, I guess, is I think clearly the one that we've heard from Trump during the period where he was out of office. And then I think kind of that's been actualized by the events of this last weekend is a measure of regret that maybe he didn't strike Maduro earlier, kind of when the iron was hot, you know, during his first term when there were protests in Venezuela and when there was kind of a lot of international pressure to oust Maduro.

28:14And we've heard Trump kind of muse about regretting that he didn't oust Maduro then. And obviously, you know, now he's doing it now. And so perhaps you kind of see him. You could make a case that maybe he feels burned by that experience, feels he should have struck Chuck Venezuela earlier. It was obviously talked out of it by, you know, the John Mattises and John Kellys of the world then. And now, you know, sees a similar situation. Right. And right. And wants to take advantage of it. Again, I'm just skeptical of any sort of kind of overarching, you know, guiding philosophy. I or really hesitant to really make any predictions.

28:47I mean, obviously, Donald Trump is someone who was elected very explicitly, you know, both a big part of how he won the 2016 Republican nomination. And frankly, it was even bigger part of his 2024 campaign, you know, campaigning so explicitly against regime change, against nation building. It was really core to his premise. And, you know, something I've written about before is I think Donald Trump was always something of like an awkward fit for an isolationist, because if you think of like, you know, what it means to be more of an interventionist or more of, you know, being a globalist or kind of playing the role of the world's policeman, you know, kind of darting around conflict zone to conflict zone, you know, striking peace deals or dropping bombs and, you know, really kind of setting the global agenda.

29:25You know, that sounds much more like the type of thing that the Donald Trump we know would have interest in than, you know, keeping his vision just to kind of the borders of the United States, just kind of what he claimed was all he was interested in in his campaigns. But I think the idea of him as an interventionist is much more of a piece with kind of how Donald Trump views his role in the world and views himself more broadly. And so he's someone who campaigned against regime change. And yet shortly after he dropped bombs on Iran, you know, several months ago, he I don't remember the exact words, but he wrote on True Social, you know, kind of musing about regime change.

29:59Maybe regime change in Iran wouldn't be so bad. Maybe it is time time to have it. So I think certainly I agree with what you said. I mean, I am someone that I think oftentimes when Donald Trump speaks, I'm kind of pretty willing to kind of dismiss it as bluster or not really kind of take it seriously. Obviously, Nicolas Maduro did the same thing and is now seeing the consequences of that. So while I don't think there's necessarily a plan to strike Iran tomorrow, I think anybody who really dismisses at this point Trump using force in any of the places that he's throwing out, clearly these are things he's willing to do.

30:35Clearly, there's no one around him who is that focused on kind of constraining him like there was in the first term. And there doesn't really seem to be any effort in Congress to assert kind of their constitutional authority over declarations of war or to even do much oversight at all over the military actions coming out of the White House. So I think it's really hard to dismiss anything that could happen next. Hold that thought on Congress because I want to get to that in a second. But I think it goes back – what you're saying really goes back to that great – I forget who even said it. But it was a quote during his first term about how you don't take Trump literally, but you do take him seriously, right?

31:11And I think that's sort of what we're seeing now. So yeah, let's talk about Congress or to the extent that Congress is even a functioning body anymore. I mean, I heard Chuck Schumer come out and say, you know, he's got concerns, probably going to write a strongly worded letter to the administration.

31:34So what do you what is going to happen here? Not just the Democrats in Congress, because I understand that they're out of power and there's not much they can do other than write strongly worded letters. Are you seeing in your reporting and among your sources that Republicans are having any sort of plan here to try and check this president when it comes to matters of foreign affairs? And I say that – let me say that by saying I'm not arguing that what we did in Venezuela actually needed congressional authority, right? I mean I don't know the actual specific legals, but George Bush did essentially this with Manuel Noriega in Panama.

32:10He didn't go through Congress. He didn't alert our allies in the region. So this is not without precedent. I mean, this is a much bigger country than than Panama. This is a much more complicated maneuvering that that's what's happening here. But there is some precedent to this. I will note quickly, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, obviously, with Panama, Panama had declared war against the United States and attacked US Marines. So I think there are differences there. But the broader point is certainly true that this is not the first time a president has kind of asserted pretty broad war powers.

32:41and Congress has really let it, let the president do it. You know, that's been decades and decades of, you know, Congress really looking at, you know, and it's an awkward constitutional system that the founders set up where, you know, Congress declares war, but the president is commander in chief. And, you know, I think increasingly, obviously, the kind of second part of that equation has really dominated. I think my sense is, I think a lot of Republican lawmakers are in a wait and see mode. And that, you know, if you look at the polling, I'll be interested to see the polling, you know, now that we actually have, you know, captured Maduro.

33:09And, you know, now that there's actually been some pretty serious developments. But if you looked at the polling beforehand, you know, Nicolas Maduro, it shouldn't be surprising. You know, he's a murderous dictator. He was not a super popular guy among the American public. That should not be shocking. So there was general support, you know, for the idea of Nicolas Maduro not being the president of Venezuela anymore, for the idea potentially of ousting him, at least kind of more support. But there's very little support for any sort of, you know, long drawn out campaign in Venezuela. If you really depends how you ask the question, you know, I think before it actually happened, your questions about, you know, kind of one and done kind of strikes, I think we're much more popular than the idea of if you ask you really about do you want the US to go to war to Venezuela?

33:53So I think it really depends what happens next. You know, if this is all the US does in Venezuela, then I think Republican lawmakers are very OK with this idea of, you know, kind of this muscular show of force and allowing the president to do this no matter what the kind of war powers laws might be. But, you know, as we've seen in previous conflicts, that's the thing. It never is. Right. Right. It usually drugs out longer and the longer it goes, the less popular it gets. I mean, that's what we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. We see that again and again. And I think when you already have a president who's already a lame duck, you already see kind of cracks in his support.

34:25And I think especially importantly, when the you know, if you take I I mean, it's this kind of weird situation where if you take the Republican Congress, the people that are generally most opposed to Trump are kind of the more neoconservative, hawkish Mitch McConnell's of the world who are thrilled by this sort of action. And then you have the people who are more allied with Trump who would be more likely to be skeptical of intervention like this. So I think it really is an issue that kind of scrambles the Republican coalition. And so I think the higher likelihood of kind of skepticism is where if you had kind of a much more drawn out campaign, I think you'll see some of Trump's own allies be the kind of first ones who will be much more concerned about this.

35:03But Trump does have this way of really kind of quelling that sort of dissent. I saw, you know, I thought one interesting kind of sign was Mike Lee, the senator from Utah, in the very early hours after the attack. Big MAGA guy. Yeah, big MAGA guy. But but but a libertarian, you're kind of like a Rand Paul libertarian. and he kind of posted that he was concerned. He wanted to see what was the legal justification for this. Why wasn't Congress brought in? And he posted that. And then he talked to Marco Rubio, who apparently assured him that nothing more would go on in Venezuela, even though that's really not what the president has been saying publicly.

35:37And then just within a few hours, Lee, which as is his want, was posting memes of Marco Rubio dressed up in kind of military garb as though he was going to be the next. The generalissimo of Venezuela, his newest job. Exactly. Exactly. And so, you know, he pretty quickly switched just into memeing and kind of, I think, realizing where the MAGA base, you know, that maybe he thought the MAGA base would be kind of skeptical of this. And then once it was clear they weren't, you know, just started memeing about it and everything like that. And I think that's a pretty good encapsulation of a lot of Republican lawmakers.

36:04You know, they'll follow the public opinion. I think maybe some of them do have kind of principled concerns about it. I think as long as it stays fairly popular, they'll stay quiet about it. But I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, the polling starts really tipping another direction. If you see more and more Republican lawmakers saying, you know, we have 2026 reelection bids to think of, you know, we're going to actually hold some hearings. We're going to actually exercise some overs. Right. Yeah. No, it'll be very interesting to see the polling in this, because I think what's going to happen is you're going to see you're going to see Trump's approval shoot up on this because the as you said, the act itself was just a masterclass in, you know, the projection of military power.

36:40Also, something that's not being talked about nearly enough is just what an intelligence success this was. Right. Like we're talking about CIA had people inside. You know, they didn't they weren't able to do this without having people on the inside of the inside of Maduro's inner circle. So that was just an incredible, you know, intelligence get, if you will. So, yeah, I think I think you're going to see his, you know, his approvals will probably shoot up in the in the short term or at least they don't really shoot up anymore. Right. He's got a pretty he's got pretty low ceiling and high floor.

37:13So maybe it'll be a couple of points because he he intuits what I think a lot of Americans are the same way. And that, like, they may not like war, but they certainly like the spectacle of an American military success. And, you know, so so I think that will go well. But but again, it goes back to what you said of what is the next day plan? Right. We had this question for Netanyahu in Gaza. They never really gave us a good answer. Now it seems to me like we're going down that road. So Rubio said we're not going to manage the day to day in Venezuela, which, again, is is basically the opposite of what Trump said.

37:50But but if you if you take Rubio at his word here, what he's basically saying is we don't want anything to do with internal Venezuelan politics. Right. We're not here to, like, pick up the trash or to, you know, to to do anything that like a, you know, a regime would do. But for matters that concern us, such as getting your gigantic oil reserves and all that infrastructure back online. So we're going to be calling the shots and Delce Rodriguez, who is the, you know, basically our our puppet right now, is going to ensure that that happens. And we will pull levers to make sure that she works on our timeline and does what we want.

38:23But but again, this goes back to what we're saying. The problem with these puppet governments that we install is they never do what we want them to. Right. Even if they want to do what we want them to, they end up, you know, getting, you know, infiltrated by terrorists or criminal groups or just good old fashioned corruption. I think that, to me, is the biggest question here about how we go forward, right? Can we really trust this? And just like in the United States, how Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, you know, they're members of the same government but don't have the same philosophy. The same is true within, you know, Maduro's or what was Maduro's government in Venezuela.

38:56You have Delce Rodriguez, who obviously the U.S. has identified as someone they think they can work with, someone they think will kind of do their will. But then there are also other cabinet ministers around her, including the ones that actually control the military, which is obviously whoever controls the military is probably going to be the one calling the shots, at least for as long as we don't have on the ground there, who are much harder line figures who have been much more resistant to negotiating with the U.S., who are much more, I don't want to say much more loyal to Maduro, but seemingly much more in line with kind of, you know, potentially Maduro's vision of kind of a future for Venezuela that did not involve the U.S.

39:31And so and then also you obviously they all of them need to worry about their own personal safety and security and they all want to hang on to power, which obviously is being threatened. And so, you know, what often happens in situations like this is we just see all this sort of, you know, the top guy gets out and then there's a huge power vacuum of squabbling between pre-indifferent factions, which just leads to even more chaos. You know, obviously the president has described this as an effort, like you said, to kind of stem the tide of Venezuelan migrants coming into the U.S. It's the biggest refugee crisis in the world.

40:01I'm not quite sure how instability and potentially even more kind of internal fighting will lead to fewer migrants trying to leave the country. I mean, theoretically, in a case where there was maybe some grand democratic transition and Venezuelans felt very liberated, maybe they would want to stay. But if instead we see even more kind of brutal crackdowns and more kind of internal division, I would expect probably a greater flow of migration. That's the question, right. That's definitely a risk. I think obviously the president is also highly optimistic about extracting oil. There's a lot of oil companies that, you know, have said to the administration, basically, we don't want to go to Venezuela.

40:38It is not a safe place for us to be extracting oil. It would be very expensive. It would take a long time. And we're just not confident enough about the political situation there to want to go there. And also, even if they did go in, even if they did go in, I mean, who's securing them? Is that Blackwater? Is that the U.S. military? What happens if what happens if a Chevron employee is killed in the streets of Caracas? Right. Is that an attack on America? There's yeah, there's so many questions here. And there's so many questions that the president has said we will be running Venezuela, but apparently we'll be doing so with not a single boot on the ground.

41:12And that's just an incredibly difficult thing to do. And I think, you know, obviously if and then if the president, if that becomes untenable and the president feels he has to kind of send troops into Venezuela, that's we go back to the kind of political risks that we were talking about. That would be a much that would be a much less popular act. But it is kind of hard to imagine how a foreign power would stabilize Venezuela and be able to control order and ensure that its will is done without any sort of presence there at all, either diplomatic or military, since we don't we don't even have an embassy.

41:42Right. And apparently they might be trying to reopen it. But at least for now, we really have no presence in this country that apparently we are now running. And so I think there's a huge, you know, huge crop of questions that really have yet to be answered. And it doesn't really seem that the Trump administration has an answer to them. And I think, you know, there's just a huge amount of instability that I think is at least possible. Now, obviously, as we said at the beginning, the president, you know, he really feels that, you know, experts are always warning about this level of instability.

42:12We saw similar warnings in his first term when he moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. We saw it in this term, you know, when he bombed Iran several months ago. And in both cases, you know, those are things that foreign policy experts had warned presidents against doing for a long time. And then they happened and it didn't unleash all this kind of chaos that the experts warned about. So maybe Trump will be right and the experts will be wrong. And, you know, I think there's also the chance, you know, Colin Powell, you know, once referred to kind of the pottery barn rule that, you know, if you break it, you buy it, that, you know, if the U.S.

42:42intervenes somewhere, they'll be responsible. I also wouldn't be shocked if, you know, Donald Trump, you know, you mentioned Gaza. I think he kind of did something very flashy there and then kind of lost interest in the day after. We started the same thing that he says, I broke it. I don't need to buy it. You know, we took out Maduro and they can figure it out, even though he says that we'll run it. You know, maybe there will be all this kind of instability on the ground and he won't send in troops because he knows that's unpopular. He doesn't want to do that and just lets chaos reign. So I think that's a possibility, too.

43:10Now, that's obviously far from best case scenario for the Venezuelan people. but you know and probably wouldn't be best case scenario for his kind of dreams of oil as well but it would still allow him to score what was a big win you know we'll see this big huge trial of nicolas maduro which will be perceived as you know a big win for the president without any of the headaches um that i think a lot of people would assume would come with once you do that needing to kind of intervene and kind of stay you know responsible for what happens next but i wouldn't be shocked if donald trump just says i'm moving on i'm gonna be focusing on iran or cuba or anywhere else now.

43:41And, you know, I'll leave that to the Venezuelans to figure out amongst themselves. I mean, that's what worries me a little bit is what you said about how he's he just, you know, all the experts are always wrong. Trump's always right. And he just and he internalizes that. Right. And then it comes out and, you know, by him on Air Force One last night feeling sounding so emboldened that he's threatening Mexico with military strikes. Right. Greenland, which is Denmark, which is our ally and a member of NATO. Like, I don't even know how that would work. So, yeah, it's just he I'm I worry that he is, you know, getting high on his own supply a little bit and thinks that, you know, hey, the experts are always wrong.

44:22I can basically do what I want and nothing ever happens until something does. Trump was right about everything. Hat was that exactly, you know, maybe a bit of a clue. Yeah, exactly. OK, I want to get your your thoughts on some other political things. But before we move on, let's just talk about the Democrats for a second. So I mean, politically, you know, Trump has done a good job, I think, of putting the Democrats in a little bit of a box here. Right. Because first of all, they don't they look toothless with Schumer and Jeffries. They don't have any sort of response to this that's meaningful.

44:52And then you get, you know, he creates this scenario where you have Democrats on the, you know, particularly ones on the left, like the AOCs of the world and, you know, Dorn, in Mamdani or New York who who who are so against this that it comes they come across as being almost supportive of somebody like Nicolas Maduro, who is a you know, like you said, he's a gangster, right? Like nobody. And you can believe that this was he shouldn't have been removed from power or under these scenarios, but also that he's not a good guy. So so I wonder I wonder how the Democrats are going to play this. Right.

45:29I don't know what the what the best answer is. I don't know. I don't know what I would do if I were in Hakeem Jeffries position. Yeah, I agree. I think it's difficult. I mean, I think we will see most likely this next week, at least in the Senate and probably pretty soon in the House as well. You know, the war powers resolution, which is kind of this 1970s law that does dictate a lot of these kind of, you know, war powers, you know, procedures, you know, it contains provisions such that just one member can force a vote on, you know, any sort of kind of war powers matter. And we've seen Tim Kaine.

46:00And he's going to be doing that next week. So we'll have all the Democrats, at least in the Senate, and I suspect there'll be a House member that will force a vote, too. We'll see all of them on the record. And I'm sure all the Democrats will oppose this, which I think you're right. Although I'd be curious to see like a John Fetterman, who's been somewhat more supportive of this operation, be curious how he'll vote. But we'll see most of the Democrats oppose this. I think Donald Trump had an interesting quote on Fox and Friends the other day, saying you'll hear the Democrats just saying, oh, gee, that's unconstitutional.

46:27and he kind of dismissed that, which is a quite a thing to hear from the president of the United States, kind of dismissing concerns about constitutionality. But then again - Way past that, Gabe. That ship sailed a long time ago. I would agree. But from a political matter is perhaps there is a point there that I'm not sure kind of these process concerns, which I think is what we'll be hearing from the Democrats, are gonna ignite a whole lot of support from the American people. That'll be, oh, you know, where was the war powers resolution or was there a AUMF, you know, invoked before this? You know, I'm just not anticipating a whole lot of concern in that realm.

46:58So I think the Democrats like the Republicans, you know, it's going to be this wait and see. I think the Democrats, no matter what, I've seen a lot of takes that, you know, this is going to become some big issue in the 2026 midterms, unless it really kind of expands into some large, you know, really, you know, bloody drawn out war. I anticipate the midterms, you know, even as explosive as this seems, And this is a really explosive international development. I think the midterm elections will be about the same things they were going to be about two weeks ago, primarily on inflation, affordability.

47:31And so I think I think you're right. Do Democrats have a really great message? Like, what do you say when you support the fact that a dictator is ousted but really hate how it was done? That's like not a really easy message to get out there. So I don't think they do have a good message here. But either way, I think they know that they can always just pivot back to the economy and that at the end of the day is I still suspect what most American voters will be voting on in November 2026. Again, barring this becoming some huge Iraq or Afghanistan style entrenched foreign conflict that I think the Democrats, they probably just won't focus on it that much.

48:05And frankly, you'll probably be, you know, trying to get the AOCs of the world that you're talking about to talk about it as little as possible. And that even if they want to, you know, we've already heard, you know, reportedly Hakeem Jeffries, you know, is in talks with Ilhan Omar, is trying to push an even broader war powers vote in the House. And that he does not want her to do that because I just think they don't want the attention on this issue. Yeah, no, that's that's my take as well. So back to Marco Rubio. So, right. In addition to being the secretary of state, national security advisor, isn't he like the archivist?

48:37Yeah, national archivist. Right. And now the leader, I guess, of Venezuela. Is it too early to say that he might be the frontrunner in 2028? I do think it is. I mean, I think, you know, if you listen to his own statements, not that we should always listen to what a president says or what a politician says about running for president. You know, he is pretty explicitly in that Vanity Fair piece, you know, endorsed J.D. Vance if he wants it. And I still think that remains the case. There's no question Rubio is kind of on this kind of power trajectory within the administration. But, you know, the fact is the last time, you know, vice president ran for a sitting vice president ran for their party's nomination and lost it.

49:17It was 1952. Harry Truman's vice president, Alvin Barkley, who everyone recalls, I'm sure, who who who lost that party's nomination to Adelaide Stevenson. And so that's been a long time, you know, pretty much every time since then. You know, not every vice president has run. Dick Cheney didn't run as a sitting vice president. Joe Biden didn't run as a sitting vice president. But every time they've wanted it, they've gotten it. primarily because they have the sitting president's support. And I suspect Trump would still go behind Vance. Now, is Vance Rubio ticket? If they announced that right out of the gate, they clearly, from all the things we know, although I think it's true that there are differences in how they kind of view the world and in their foreign policy philosophy, but reportedly they've gotten along quite well and that they are really kind of chummy behind the scenes and that they're kind of each other's first call on kind of any situation.

50:07And so, So, you know, I think more than Rubio being the frontrunner, I'm kind of wondering if there's a situation where, you know, just right out of the gate and kind of whenever the 2028 primaries start heating up, you know, mid 2027 or whenever it will be that maybe they just announce some sort of unity ticket and, you know, really kind of squash any hopes of anyone who's kind of less aligned with the Trump administration's vision, whether that's Marjorie Taylor Greene or Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley or Nikki Haley, you know, all people who to varying degrees are aligned with Trump, but but, you know, maybe have been less bought in to some of the exact priorities of the administration that perhaps they just announced, you know, a Trump administration super ticket.

50:47Trump endorses them. And that's kind of it. OK, so I'm going to put a prediction on on the record here and we can come back when this prediction fails to materialize. You can tell me I'm an idiot. I think Trump is going to throw Vance under the bus. I think that and I think that I think he's going to throw Vance under the bus and he's going to support Rubio. I think he sees Rubio as a more deft operator as well as more, you know, more politically palatable for independence. I think that he understands that Vance is very smart and Vance is very good at, you know, at defending Trump in the press.

51:22But look, it's notable that Vance was not behind him on Saturday at Mar-a-Lago. I know that I know that Vance's people put out some BS thing about how like, oh, they couldn't be in the same location or something like that. But the fact that he wasn't there and the fact that he sort of spent the last few days, you know, fighting with people on Twitter about this and like, you know, trolling. And Marco Rubio was on Face the Nation and Meet the Press and did the rounds. And I have to say, I'm not a big Marco Rubio guy, but he did come across very well this weekend in terms of being the one person in this administration that appears to at least have have be thinking about this more than like 10 feet in front of this.

52:00This is his bread and butter. I mean, Latin America. This is his thing. This is his specialty for a long time. And if he's able to pull off, you know, pull a rabbit out of a hat here and do some major Latin American geopolitical realignment ahead of 2028 and he can run on that. I don't know. I think that it's it's possible. And it wouldn't be the first time that Trump has, you know, thrown somebody under the bus who was last vice president. Yeah, exactly. Okay, so we'll bring you back on in 28. We'll see if I was right about that.

From the publisher

Carlo Versano is joined by Gabe Fleisher of "Wake Up To Politics" to dissect Donald Trump's foreign policy doctrine after a stunning U.S. attack in Venezuela that captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, on Saturday. Newsweek's Jesús Mesa also joins to share reactions from the Venezuelan diaspora in Miami, Florida.


Watch this episode: https://youtu.be/kmnzimMc8jM


Check out Gabe Fleisher's "Wake Up To Politics:" https://www.wakeuptopolitics.com/


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