In short
The episode argues that Iran is resilient and that the U.S. should intensify economic pressure—specifically Trump’s naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—to weaken the Iranian regime and enable internal change, amid failed Vance-Iran talks and ongoing “economic warfare.”
Guests
Nick Berg, Iranian-American author and former U.S. Special Operations soldier. Born in Tehran to an Iranian mother and American father; fled Iran at 19. He writes Shadows of Tehran (auto-fiction/novel). He describes his father as a U.S. Navy intelligence officer who later said he worked for the CIA and used family cover.
Key claims
Iran’s regime survives because power is diffused across the IRGC/Basij and the state’s survival is the regime’s “sole purpose.” The blockade is “blockading the blockade” to stop Iran’s oil sales (especially to China), disrupt black-market financing, and cut pay to “foot soldiers.” He predicts distrust will keep negotiations hard and says Iran’s Shiite ideology reduces deterrence against Israel.
Notable examples
January uprisings with alleged mass killings; Basij youth indoctrination; Iran using Hormuz leverage to threaten ~20% of world oil; China’s energy/AI investments and reluctance to risk open conflict.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Current State of U.S.-Iran Relations
1:20 to 2:20
Discussion on the new phase of U.S.-Iran economic warfare.
“Vance, over Iran's insistence on keeping its nuclear program going.”
Introducing Nick Berg
2:20 to 4:20
Introduction of Nick Berg, an Iranian-American author and perspective on the war.
“I wouldn't call it a democratic country by any stretch of imagination, but it was a beautiful country.”
Growing Up in Iran: Pre-79 Revolution
4:20 to 6:50
Nick shares insights about his childhood in Iran before the revolution.
“There were people in the streets screaming.”
The Impact of the 79 Revolution
6:50 to 9:20
Discussion on Nick's memories of the revolution and its aftermath.
“And the private investigator, after about six months, came back to us and said, you guys shouldn't look for this.”
Family Dynamics and CIA Connections
9:20 to 12:20
Exploration of Nick's family background and father's involvement with the CIA.
“And he directed a lot of the places that I was from behind the curtain.”
Understanding the Resilience of the Iranian Regime
12:20 to 14:02
Nick discusses the resilience of the Iranian regime amidst current conflicts.
“It's a number of people that kind of run the country.”
Cultural Perspectives on Iranian Women's Roles
14:02 to 15:21
Explore the historical and cultural significance of women in Iranian society.
“because it's a paternal culture Cyrus the Great, some of his the commander of his navy was a woman.”
Negotiations and Survival of the Iranian Government
15:46 to 18:10
Discuss the dynamics of current negotiations and the Iranian government's stability.
“That's travelbelize.org, your closest faraway paradise.”
Impact of Blockades on Iran's Economy
18:10 to 21:06
Analyze how blockades are affecting Iran's economy and the government.
“The money is worth nothing pretty much around the world.”
China's Strategic Interests in Iranian Oil
21:06 to 22:59
Examine China's role and interests in Iranian oil amidst current tensions.
“And so what happens if they try and go get it?”
Show all 16 chapters
The State of Resistance in Iran
22:59 to 25:12
Discuss the current state of resistance movements within Iran and their challenges.
“when we first killed Khamenei, the condolences that were sent from China was from a low-level diplomat.”
Iran's Nuclear Ideology and Regional Tensions
25:12 to 28:01
Explore the ideological underpinnings of Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional implications.
“Even though that the people of Iran during the January protests will keep calling the crown princess name and all of that.”
Understanding Shiite Beliefs and Fanaticism
28:01 to 29:49
Learn about the differences between Shiite and Sunni beliefs and the implications of extremist ideologies.
“So the Shiites are basically, I don't know if you know the history behind the Shiites and Sunnis.”
Evaluating Iran's Military Capabilities and Nuclear Concerns
30:15 to 36:26
Discussing the current state of Iran's military, nuclear program, and geopolitical strategies.
“I guess, Nick, my question is, Aron at this moment, battered, but strategically, maybe not victorious, but at least in the game still.”
Information Access and Resistance in Iran
36:26 to 39:21
Exploring how Iranians access information under oppressive conditions and the resilience of the population.
“And maybe they are closer to some sort of internal revolt.”
Messages of Hope and Responsibility
39:21 to 40:29
Reflecting on the resilience of the Iranian people and the global implications of their struggles.
“When was the last time you spoke to your mother?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00One hundred years ago, my grandfather started our family law firm. I remember him saying, if we're gonna get full justice for our clients, we have got to go to trial. Ninety-five percent of the other law firms will not go to trial. For a hundred years we've been taking cases to trial and winning record verdicts. I'm Cliff Horowitz, a third-generation trial lawyer. Let me do for you what our family has been doing for one hundred years, getting you the full justice you deserve. Hello again, everybody from Newsweek headquarters here at the top of the World Trade Center in beautiful spring like New York City.
0:35I'm Carlo Versano. And this, of course, is the 1600. This country was stone cold dead. So we're coming on the air today. This is Monday afternoon. We're back on the war beat here where the U.S. and Iran have entered, I guess you could say, a new phase of economic warfare now. President Trump this week instituting a naval blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, which was, if we're keeping track here, already blockaded by Iran. So we're essentially blockading the blockade. This, of course, coming on the heels of the collapse over the weekend of negotiations between Vice President J.D. Vance and an Iranian delegation they were meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan.
1:12Those talks lasted about 21 hours. They did not result in any sort of deal or at least any sort of assumption of a deal. They fell apart, at least according to J.D. Vance, over Iran's insistence on keeping its nuclear program going. So my guest today to talk about all of this is Iranian-American author. He is a former U.S. Special Operations soldier, Nick Berg. Nick was born in Tehran to an Iranian mother and an American father. He fled the country at the age of 19. So he's got a very unique viewpoint, one that we haven't heard a lot from in this war, not just one of these sort of talking head military analysts that you see on TV.
1:48Nick knows this country like the back of his hand. So that's what we want to talk about with him today. So, Nick, welcome. Thanks for joining us. Thank you, Carlo. Glad to be here. I'm glad to have you. So your book, by the way, we should mention his book. It's called Shadows of Tehran. It's a memoir. Well, it's not really a memoir. It's fiction. It's an auto fiction. It's auto fiction. Okay. So we're going to talk about the book. But before we get to the book, talk to me a little bit about just your life growing up in Iran, both before the 79 revolution and after? So before the 79 revolution, Iran was a beautiful country.
2:22I mean, it was - Under the Shah. Under the Shah, yeah. I wouldn't call it a democratic country by any stretch of imagination, but it was a beautiful country. There was a lot of freedom, social freedoms for people. And it was a country that was moving forward pretty rapidly during that time. And it became a really nice, The problem that happened in Iran, it was the middle class was just starting to become a middle class. But there was still a rich factor and a very poor factor, especially in rural cities and rural areas, the farmers and all of that stuff. It was a big difference between the income and the lifestyle of the people.
3:07And then there's a religious factor and that was kind of like underneath all of this that are deeply Shiite Islamic religious factor. But just to understand, Iran was never an Islamic country. Islam was forced on them during the Arab invasion and the Islamic invasion that took over most of the Middle East and all the way to North Africa, all the way to Spain. But Islam was forced on them, and it kind of got embedded into that culture. But Iran is the only country that kept its own language that didn't convert to Arabic. If you look at Egypt, Jordan, all of these guys are speaking Arabic. But Iran keeps it in the room.
3:48It's Farsi, yeah. And the only reason it's called Farsi is because in Arabic language, there's no P. So it was usually called Parsi. But because in Arabic language, there's no letter P, they translate it into Farsi. So if you go to Saudi Arabia, they call Pepsi Bipsy because they don't have the letter P. I didn't know that. Yeah. Well, tell me, I want to hear like what do you remember? So how old were you in 79? I was probably eight, nine years old. Do you have any recollections of the revolution? Oh, yeah. I remember all of the gunfire outside of our door all night. There was martial law. There were people in the streets screaming.
4:27And the people of Iran wanted really a democratic country. And Carter was the U.S. president at that time. And he was trying to turn Iran into more of a democratic country in the Middle East. We were a big ally of the U.S. at the time. But I think what the Shah was trying to do was too soon and too fast of the changes that he was trying to make. So the book, as we said, is called Shadow of Tehran. Again, not really a memoir, but a novel centered around a protagonist named Ricardo. Right. More or less you. Yes. Do you know anything we can say? Yeah, more or less. So his father was a CIA operative who sort of used the family as cover.
5:10Can you talk a little bit about your parents and your dad in particular? Yeah, so my mom was Iranian, as we mentioned. My dad was a naval intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy. And his ship docked from, and he was coming back from Vietnam, and his ship docked in Iran. And he met my mom and they got married, which was a really big thing back then because my mom was kind of a rebel in the family. She must have been married in America. Yeah, she married American. She was the first woman that started smoking in the family. She was the first woman that had a driver's license and driving in the street.
5:44So bought her own car and all of that. So it was a she was a bit of a rebel. But eventually they got married, and my dad worked with the Iranian Air Force at the time teaching English. So that's so what we thought. That was his job. That was the front. That was the front, right. He was doing that. So in 1975, he left Iran, and he said, I'm going to come back and get you guys, and we're going to move to America and all of that stuff. And then he disappeared at that point. What year was that? 1975. Okay. Yeah, before the revolution. Yeah. Do you have any, what happened to him? So I met him 35 years later in Las Vegas.
6:28He was living in Las Vegas, and he kind of told me that whole story that he worked for the CIA. He passed away about three years ago, so I can talk a lot more about him. Yeah, so he lived in Las Vegas, and I met him, and I asked him. Did you reach that, did you go looking for him? I looked for him a number of times. My mom actually looked for him. And we came to the United States in 76 looking for him. And we hired a private investigator. And the private investigator, after about six months, came back to us and said, you guys shouldn't look for this. I got approached by the State Department to stop looking for this guy.
7:04And you guys should go back to Iran and never look for this guy again. That would make me want to find him even more, right? Yeah, think about it. Yeah, that's true. So we went back to Iran. And we lived there. And so when I met my dad in Vegas 35 years ago, this is in 2009, 2010 timeframe, I asked him, I said, so why did you get married and have kids and all of this? He said, well, having a family was the best cover. Wow. Do you have brothers and sisters? I have a sister that lives in Copenhagen in Denmark. And that was his dad. My sister is really mad at him. I mean, she. How could you not? She's really mad.
7:49But, you know, being in special operations, I kind of get him in certain ways. And my sister's mad at me for that. But I kind of get him because he's a patriot. He was a true patriot, really wanted the best for this country, for America. And that's what he did. That's what he spent his whole life doing. So before he passed away, I recorded all of his story for about six weeks. I spent with him. We recorded his story. So that's going to be a prequel to these books. I was going to say, that's got a book written all over it. That's going to be another book all by itself. I'm just curious, Nick. I'm just fascinated by these sorts of family dynamic things.
8:31What did he say when you said, why did you leave your, why did you abandon your family, your children? He said it was required. It was part of his job as a spouse. He did part of his job as a spy, and he went to Egypt from Iran. Actually, we thought he came to America. He did and then went to Egypt. I have a half-Egyptian sister that I have never met. He told me about it. I have a half-brother that was born somewhere in Germany, and I have no idea. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. So he was—wow. Okay. No, it's just incredible. I can imagine what kind of emotions that must have been like when you caught up with him in Vegas.
9:12The interesting part out of all of that is when I found out that he actually knew about me leaving Iran and getting into the Army. And he directed a lot of the places that I was from behind the curtain. And I had no idea. So he was keeping tabs on you the whole time. He was keeping tabs. He was actually telling what mission should I go on and I shouldn't go on and where to go. But he never reached out. But he never reached out. Wow. Okay, well, I mean, it's a tough little turn there, but I want to ask you about the war as it stands now, just given your history. Given what you know about how the Iranian regime operates or what remains of the regime today, have you been surprised at how resilient it has been since this war began?
10:04Not at all. You saw this. I saw this coming because, see, the thing about it is American people and the West don't really understand Iran and its culture. They compare to Afghanistan, to Iraq. So Iraq, we took out Saddam Hussein and the whole thing just crumpled. Right. And Iran was very different. Iran saw that. But Iran, when the Shah was in power, after the Shah left the country, the whole regime crumbled underneath it because he was the one man directing it. Iranian government, the Islamic government, when they put that government in place, they did a really good job of democratizing power across different areas.
10:49Diffusing it. Diffusing it so that it's not dependent on one or two people that you take those out and the system falls. Right. And the IRGC is actually the one in power. It's the Revolutionary Guard. It's essentially the paramilitary. Well, I guess, is it a paramilitary unit? Well, there's two different groups. There's the IRGC and then there's kind of like a section of it called the Basij. Yeah, and the Basij is kind of like the paramilitary part of it. It's mostly younger people. And usually the people that go into the Basij, they go into IRGC once they get older. So there's kids as young as 10, 11, 12 years old that are part of the Basij.
11:30I used to call them like the Hitler Youth process. That's how it was modeled, actually, after that process. The IRGC was created after the revolution as the guardians. Literally, their name means the guardians of the revolution. And their job is to keep the government standing. And they're not just a military organization. their economic power in Iran. Political organizations. After the revolution, a lot of the industry that was in Iran, they got taken by the government because all of the people that owned the private industries, they all left Iran and they had money, they left Iran. Most of them live in Los Angeles now.
12:12And so all of that industry was taken over by the government and then they democratized it across IRGCs, different groups and different power sources. So IRGC is not one person. It's a number of people that kind of run the country. The best way I can describe it is like Al-Qaeda taking over a country and running the country. That's the best way to describe it. I think it's useful for Americans. I mean, look, speaking as one of many ignorant Americans, like we just, first of all, we have historical amnesia if we don't have historical ignorance. We just don't think in these sorts of nuanced terms about some of these countries.
12:52that we often invade. And I think a lot of people, a lot of Americans thought, look, Iran is going to be like, to your point, it's going to be like Iraq or it's going to be like Afghanistan, not understanding that this is a culture and an empire and a civilization that's been around way longer than we have. Right? And they, so can you just speak a little bit to that if you could? Sure. Yeah. So the Persian Empire, Persia is, used to be, Iran used to be called Persia until 1948, 47, 48, when Shah's father changed the name to Iran. The Persian Empire goes way back 2 ,500 years from when Cyrus the Great started the empire and all of that.
13:36The culture is very different than the rest of the Middle East. Iran is the only non-Arab country in the Middle East when you look at it unless you count Afghanistan as Middle East but we don't count that really as part of the Middle East but Iran, other than Israel is the only non-Arab country the culture is very different it's kind of a contradictory to Islam actually because it's a paternal culture Cyrus the Great, some of his the commander of his navy was a woman. There was a, women have a big place in Iranian culture. Right. I mean, I remember, I've seen the photos from before the revolution of, you know, honestly, it looks like it could be a college campus in America.
14:22Right. Women wearing miniskirts and reading books. Right. Exactly. And women, just culturally in the house, when you go to people's houses and stuff, Women have a very high regard. Women are—it's completely the opposite of the cultures that you see. It's maternal versus paternal. Right. Exactly, exactly. It's very different. That's one thing that's very different. The other thing is they're very proud people. Yeah. They're very proud of their culture. They're very proud of their—and Shaw was trying to play that in 1974, 75, when he had the White Revolution. and had the 2 ,500 years of kingdom by the Cyrus's tomb in Persepolis and all of that stuff, he was trying to play on that.
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15:51I just said in the intro, right, that we're in the middle of a ceasefire, in theory at least. We're doing this blockade and the straight now. What do you suspect is happening behind the scenes with the negotiations? Because so Vance comes out, he says, you know, there's no deal over the weekend, which I think pretty much everybody knew. I mean, the Obama deal, regardless of what you think about it, like that took years to negotiate. It's not like you can just walk in there and be like, okay, especially because we didn't beat them in any sense of the war. The war itself is, I would argue, in some sort of stalemate.
16:22It is. At the moment, right? You would agree. So all that said, what do you suspect is happening behind the scenes in these negotiations? Because you can't trust Trump. You can't trust the Iranians necessarily. Everything is sort of being, you know, there's some element of kayfabe to all of this, right? Which is always going to be the case in high stakes negotiations. What do you think is actually happening behind the scenes? I think behind the scenes, the Iranians, so the Islamic government, their sole purpose is survival right now. More than anything. Yeah. And before the war started, The Iranian government was very weak because of what happened in January, the uprisings.
17:02They killed 40 ,000 people. Some people say it's more than that in two days. Do you believe it's that high, 40 ,000? Oh, yeah. I believe it's that. I believe it's higher than that, actually, because I saw a lot of the things that friends of mine from Iran that were able to get through and send in to me, bodies laying out everywhere in body bags in and people had to go and look for their loved ones and and all of that and the IRGC were actually standing at the door if you wanted to take the body you had to pay for the bullets that killed them before yeah you can take them um one of my cousins died in that I'm so sorry in that process and uh it's a distant cousin that that died in that process.
17:45And when we went, when they went to get her body, the mother that went to get her son's body, her son's body, uh, talk, said, can I go and look for my son? And the IRGC guard started laughing. He said, you need to go get us some sweets first and bring us sweets before we can let you in. And it's just really, really brutal, uh, environment. So after that, the government is the economics over there is 47 % inflation right now. The money is worth nothing pretty much around the world. And they have very limited options. Well, they're sanctioned basically everywhere. Everywhere, right. Except for Russia and China.
18:26Exactly, exactly. So the government was really, really weak until this war started. Which is, again, let me just stop you there because I think the thought from Trump at least was it was so weak, we were going to be able to just sort of push it over the edge. Push it over the edge. Sort of like what we did as well. Take out the head of the snake and the rest of the body dies, which of course is not what happens. But it doesn't work that way in Iran because they don't understand the structure of how Iran works. And so people are now scared. They're truly scared. And they're hoping that the government would change.
19:01They wanted the war, actually. They wanted some of the elements of the RGC dead and taken out. They saw it as a revenge to what happened in January more than anything else. But what is going to drive this, actually, I think the blockade is a smart thing, if you ask me. I want to hear about that. Yeah, because I think what the blockade is doing is, yes, it's a blockade against the blockade. But the blockade that the Iranians had was for all of the ships that don't belong to them. Right. And Iran has been selling oil to China and to a couple other countries, even with the sanctions and all of that.
19:40So they were letting their own ships through, but they weren't letting everybody else through. So this blockade is actually - We're saying if you're not letting anyone else's ships through, you're not coming through. You're not coming either. Right. Exactly. So what this blockade is doing is stopping Iranians from selling the oil, which is going to hurt their economy even more. That's the play, I guess, right? That's the play. vice that we're trying to turn on them. Trying to turn on them, right. And what's going to happen is that we took out a lot of their military, a lot of their heads, but there is still more people in power that are trying to brutally run that country the way they did.
20:16What this economic blockade is going to do, it's going to cut off them paying the foot soldiers. Right. What is going to it's going to it's going to cause a lot of disruptions in their economic system and their black market economic system that they have built. Right. Since the sanctions and all of this come in place. So the hope is right now is that if we keep that up for a while, it's going to help topple the government because people are going to start turning over, turning on the government. Because if you don't have food to eat, you're going to turn some way. You're going to have to do something.
20:53Right. Where does China fit into this? Because the first thing that I thought when I heard that we were going to do this was just, well, what happens if there's some sort – I mean, are we essentially in a proxy war with China at this point? Because they're going to want that oil, right? Right. And so what happens if they try and go get it? I think the Chinese are too smart for that. They are. They are. I don't think they want an open naval conflict with the United States right now. No. But it's a little bit scary. Like, where do the Chinese sort of fit into all of this? So Chinese have been getting a lot of the Iranian oil really cheap, really, really cheap because nobody else was going to buy it and they were the only ones buying it.
21:28But at the same time, I think China won a piece out of because of this war. And that's because of the AI pact that Trump made when he made his trip last year to the Middle East. Two trillion dollars of investment from all the Persian Gulf nations and all of that in AI. And they start building data centers over there and all of that stuff. And AI needs a lot of energy. AI needs a lot of energy. So that's why they were building it there. But with all these attacks of Iran on the Gulf states, now they're rethinking that AI packs that they made and how all of this is going to work. And so China is trying to win the AI war right now.
22:13And so they're using this as kind of a, hey, you guys are not going to have the investment. Let us start building. So China has been diversifying its energy for a long time to more green energy. solar, wind, coal, a lot of, that's why the EV, they're pushing their EV markets so high so they can reduce their oil consumption. And it's not because they care about the world, it's because they don't want to buy oil. And if they have other alternatives to use, it would be much better. Something that we apparently don't, which is that the less they can be involved in the Middle East, the better for them, I think.
22:52Right, exactly. And the key part was, is that China really doesn't want to get involved in this process is because when Khamenei, when we first killed Khamenei, the condolences that were sent from China was from a low-level diplomat. It wasn't from the president or it wasn't from Xi Jinping or anybody at that rank level. Which does everything. Right. That tells you a lot that this is... Right. They weren't exactly mourning his death. His death. Right. Exactly. Yeah. But the Chinese must have seen this coming in terms of uranium's not folding immediately to us, right? Right, right. Okay, so what is the state of the resistance today, such that it exists, from what you can tell?
23:35I mean, I know you told me your mother's still there. God bless her. What did you say, 85 years old? 85 years old, yes. How's she doing? She's doing okay. She's doing okay, yeah. So from what you can hear from inside the country, is the resistance such that it exists, are they waiting for something? Are they just scared at this point? Is there a place for them to, you know, a moment in which this popular uprising that Trump has sort of promised or at least hoped for could come? It seems like it's dead right now, but you're saying maybe it isn't. It isn't. It's still underground right now. And the biggest problem that the resistance is not just picking up is because of leadership.
24:13Right. The resistance doesn't really have a solid leadership. Now, there's Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's son. He lives in Maryland. He lives in Maryland. Right, exactly. Can you really run a resistance movement from thousands of miles away? You really can't. And the thing is, he has a lot of backing. And if you ask me personally, I would love to see him come back and lead the democratic movement that he's talking about because he really doesn't want the throne again. He doesn't really want a monarchy. He wants to be the leader and let the Iranian people decide what the next government is going to look like in that process.
24:50Do you think there's any chance of that happening? Slim. Yeah. There's a slim chance of that happening, but there's still a chance that way. And so until somebody within the power structure of the resistance comes up and become the soul. So 79 revolution, Khomeini was that one person, even though that he was in Iraq and then he went to Paris and then back into Iran. He was that one unifying figure. Right now, we don't really have that. Even though that the people of Iran during the January protests will keep calling the crown princess name and all of that. I think they're looking for more from him.
25:31And if he can't step up a lot more than what he has so far, that's going to make a difference. You have to assume that right now Mossad and CIA are in Iran trying to find that person. Absolutely. Yeah. The United States, as well as our allies, particularly Britain, we have a long history of sort of meddling in Iranian domestic affairs, I think you could say, including, you know, like you said, the Shah was not a democratic leader. We propped him up. But we also have a long history of just sort of throwing Iranian dissidents and resistance fighters under the bus. Do you why would it be any different this time?
26:06Do you think that the Americans could come to the rescue here? I don't think Iranians are looking for a rescue. What Iranians are looking is support. Yeah. And that support could be in weapons. It could be in. So most people that I spoke with before, they keep saying, well, if we give the resistant weapons and things, it's going to become another Syria. Right. And but Syria, again, it's not Iran. Right. Very different. And a lot of analysts that I've been reading about talking about, oh, it's going to become a sectarian war between the Kurds. the Persians, the Lors, the Uzharis, because Iran is a multi-ethnic country.
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26:45This was my first thought. Is this going to become a civil war like Iraq did? But the thing is— By the way, I think Israel would like. No, I don't think Israel would like that either. But that's better than the Islamic government. Say it that way. But I don't think Israel would like that kind of pressure either. I mean, I guess I'm being a little bit glib, But I guess what I was going to say is anything that keeps the Iranians decentralized and in chaos is good for the Israeli government. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yes. As long as they're not building nuclear weapons to drop them on Israel. I think that's Israel's biggest concern is that if an Islamic government gets a nuclear bomb that is so anti-Israel, a government that's so...
27:34I mean, they've been yelling death to America, death to Israel for 47 years. Sure. Do you believe that if the Iranians actually had a nuclear bomb that they would, even pre-February 28th, Iran, would actually have used it against Israel? Absolutely. You do? Absolutely. Because being anti-Israel is that much of it. It's not about being anti-Israel. It's about the ideology of the Shiite Islam. Okay. Okay. This government is a Shiite Islam. It's very different than the Sunni Islam. Tell me a little bit about that. So the Shiites are basically, I don't know if you know the history behind the Shiites and Sunnis.
28:09No, not a lot, but I know, I mean, it's a lot about martyrdom. Well, the thing is the Shiites split after Muhammad died, and they followed the 12 imams, as they call them, and the last imam, which is Mahdi, and they believe that Mahdi is disappeared off of, God took Mahdi off of the face of the earth, and then he's going to be the commander of Jesus' army that's going to come and bring the final days. Now, they work for everything that they can do for Matthew to come back. Okay. And any catastrophe like a nuclear bomb detonated in the heart of the Jewish land, which they see as the enemies of God, that would bring the end of days, and that would bring Matthew back.
28:54These guys are completely out of their minds fanatics to a point that they don't care about how they live today. All they care about is the afterlife. Right. And they're not afraid of dying. So people that are not afraid of dying, you can't have a deterrent. Right. And this is what we learned sort of in the global war on terror, you know, when we were trying to use Al-Qaeda as though they were an enemy that we could deter. Right. Exactly. I mean, the guys that got into those planes and flew them into the World Trade Center, they knew they were going to die. Obviously, right. Yeah. Now, those were Sunnis.
29:34Right. Shiites are more fanatic than those guys. Okay. That's probably a better way to put it because I didn't even sort of realize that. I thought that it couldn't really get worse than Sunni fundamentalism. Getting hurt on the job isn't just an accident. It's a turning point. And what you do next matters. When you call Horwitz Horwitz and Associates, you're not just hiring lawyers. You're building a team, a team that fights tirelessly to get you the compensation you deserve. They've secured record-breaking verdicts for hardworking people just like you. Because when you're injured, you don't just need help.
30:10You need a win. Hi, I'm Cliff Horwitz. Visit me at HorwitzLaw.com. I see where you're coming from. I guess, Nick, my question is, Aron at this moment, battered, but strategically, maybe not victorious, but at least in the game still. The regime did not collapse, hardened, and you could argue. They're still able to fire some number of ballistic missiles, and they've got this crazy big drone program that has proven to be a big success. So Trump is now sort of talking about sanctions relief in some ways. I mean, you never know what this guy, because he just sort of says stuff, and you never know how real it is.
30:50But one of the things that he was batting around the other day was this idea that we were willing to partner with the Iranians on tolling the Strait of Hormuz, which was free until this started. But to me, the thing that suggests that this is going as poorly as I think it is for us is the Iranians realize that they have this point of leverage with Hormuz that if they didn't know it before, now they really know it. Which is, why do you even need a nuke if you can threaten to shut off 20 % of the world's oil supply at the drop of a hat, right? Isn't that the greatest deterrent that anyone could ever ask for?
31:25That was a deterrent until this war happened. Right. Say it that way. And they always taunted that as their security blanket, basically, that nobody is going to attack Iran because, at least from the Western world. And none of the other presidents were willing to do that because of that fact, because it was going to put the world economy into a turmoil and all of that stuff. What we learned from Trump, and I have to give him credit for this, is that he basically said, I don't care. And I'm going to go in and take out those nuclear facilities. Now, with other presidents in Iran, wasn't as far. Their technology wasn't gone as far as it has with the nuclear part of it.
32:08But I really think there is some intelligence just based on what I'm seeing, what I'm hearing. I haven't seen any of it, but just my gut feel is that they have seen some intelligence that really shook everybody in order to take that chance. So you believe that there was something that we don't know that caused us to go in that was not just the Israelis telling us that they were going to go whether we went or not. Right. Which is basically what Rubio said. Right, exactly. Because if you remember when they attacked Iran the first time, the 12-day war, that the Israelis started that war and they attacked the Iranian nuclear sites.
32:45And then America went in and dropped those big bombs. We were told that we obliterated the nuclear program. Right, but they didn't. Obviously not. Obviously not. I think the nuclear program is much bigger than they thought it was going to be. And they realized that. Interesting. Okay, so where's the nuclear program now? Because, I mean, the enriched uranium is obviously there still. somewhere. Can this end without us getting that uranium out of that country? No. That's the thing. We cannot leave that uranium in that country because if we do, now we're in much deeper than we were before the war.
33:18Well, because this is what I've been writing about in the newsletter because if I'm the new Ayatollah or whoever ends up sort of running the show in Iran, the first thing I'm going to do when this ends is be like, what do I got to do to get a nuke? Get a nuke. Exactly. Because isn't that the lesson here? Exactly. That's the lesson here. The thing is, is that until now, they were going at it slowly because they weren't in no hurry. Right. But now it's a different picture. Now they're going to rush to it. And if we don't get that enriched uranium out of there, they're going to use it. So how do we get it out?
33:48I don't know. That's something. If you knew the answer to that question. I knew the answer to that question. That's true. Yeah. I guess in terms of just the actual negotiations that are or are not occurring, given that we have now bombed Iran twice during negotiations, do they have any reason why they would trust us now? I guess that's what I'm trying to get at is it's hard for me to see what the off-ramp is here because there's obviously a ton of distrust between these two parties. What would it take for, I mean, I guess I'm answering my own question here because I assume what you're going to say is, well, the economic vice needs to close, which speaks to the purpose of this blockade.
34:32Yeah. See, the thing is, Iranians don't have a choice but to negotiate. Right. That's what Trump's counting on. That's what Trump is counting on, rightfully, is that they don't have a choice but to negotiate. It's not about them wanting to negotiate with the United States. They don't have a choice at this point. Right. What does it mean if the regime remains in some sort of place when this is all said and done? That's the worst case scenario for Iranian people. Yeah. Well, that's what I was going to ask, right? Because it seems like at this point, if we walk out of there and the regime is able to sort of reconstitute itself, then what was it all for if you're the Iranian people, at least?
35:14At least the people who thought that Trump saying help is on the way meant that help was going to be on the way rather than Trump's. Yes, that's the worst case scenario for the Iranian people and for that resistance that's still driving. Because as I mentioned to you earlier, right now they bring the Hezbollah into Iran from Iraq. All of the Shiite fighters. These are these militias. These militias. They brought the Al-Fatimir, the Shiite Muslims that are in Afghanistan into Iran. I heard from my friends that all of the checkpoints in Tehran right now are being manned by them because a lot of the Iranian police or the IRGC, the lower ranking IRGC, are not willing to do what they did in January.
36:00Why would that be? Because the regime is so weak now? The regime is so weak now and they're not getting paid. That's the thing. They're not getting paid. So they needed to bring the fanaticals that are willing to die to do that. And it's a whole new occupation of Iran right now by these foreign fighters that have been— So they usually have mercenaries there doing the dirty work of the IRGC. IRGC, right. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, in some ways, does that suggest to you a reason to be optimistic and that if they can't field these low-level IRGC guys to do street checkpoints, does that suggest that there's more happening in there than we know?
36:43And maybe they are closer to some sort of internal revolt. Or if not revolt, just a walking away. Walking away, right. If I can't get paid, then I'm not going to. Right. The key to this is the Iranian army. Okay. Tell me about them a little bit. So they're completely separate from the IRGC. And they have been kind of the redheaded stepchild for a long time. and it's Iran serving in the military is mandatory for two years. So most of the people that are in the Iranian army are not religious. They're not fanatics. Did you leave before you? No, I was taken during the Iran-Iraq war. But that army is very different than the IRGC.
37:29Right. And the commanders of that army are different than the IRGC as well. And so the key point is, does the army, is the army is willing to turn on IRGC? Okay. Okay. And I guess we'll just, that's something we just don't know. That's something we don't know and we have to wait and see. And what about the Navy? I keep hearing these things about how we've destroyed Iran's Navy, which I wasn't even really aware was much of a force until now. It wasn't. It wasn't. It wasn't. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And the IRGC has its own navy. Navy. They have their own air force. They have their own navy. And the regular Iranian navy is a very small force.
38:07Right. Very small. Nick, before I let you go, I mean, what would you, if assuming, well, there's this big internet blackout still in Iran, right? Can you speak a little bit to that? Like how is information getting into or out of the country? I mean, we're seeing very little imagery out of the country right now for obvious reasons, right? How can stuff get in? Right now, there's always ways to get stuff into Iran. Even when I lived there, we used to get music tapes. Even though Western music was illegal, we used to get music tapes and videocassettes. There's a will, there's a way. There's a way, right, exactly.
38:44And there's enough black market and smugglers around in any place that get the stuff in. But the thing is, there's still people that are coming out of Iran going into Turkey because it's still an open area that people can bring information out. And Starlink has really helped. There's a lot of people with Starlink. But right now the government is trying to crack down on Starlink and all of that. They have tracers that go look for signals and shut them down. And as I heard from my friends in Iran right now, they are really cracking down on everybody in Iran right now, arresting people and hanging people and all of that to just keep the population from the uprising that they think is going to come.
39:30When was the last time you spoke to your mother? About two days ago. How does that work? So she goes to a government center or finds a government-issued phone card, and she calls me. And the call is about two minutes, if even that. Hi, I'm okay. Are you guys okay? Is everybody okay? And that's about it. She can't talk about what's going on because she knows every conversation is monitored. It's like a prison call. Right, exactly. Assuming that this was able to get into Iran somehow, what would your message be to those people? To keep the hope up. I mean, Iranian people are very resilient. They're brave people, and they're very patriotic, and they love that country.
40:14And they are going to free Iran. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But it happens because if you look at Iranian history, Iran was run over by the Mongols, by the Arabs, by Alexander, by so many times, and it survived. And they're going to survive this as well. And it's going to become a beautiful country. And what would your message be to the Americans like myself who are looking at this as just another fiasco in the Middle East that we didn't vote for or want? you know you've made me think a little bit more uh critically about my own preconceptions which is a good thing for all of us in the media to do um but yeah what would you say to to americans who are just like this is not our fight i want nothing to do with this it is your fight it is your fight uh it's uh it's because the iranian the islamic government is a terrorist organization that is terrorizing the entire world imagine if those ballistic missiles can reach europe Imagine if those ballistic missiles, not America is too far, but if they can terrorize Europe, if they can terrorize their neighbors in the Persian Gulf, if they can terrorize Saudi Arabia, they can blow up ships.
41:33It all affects the world economy. It affects everything that we do here. Before 9-11, we never thought that they can come to the shores of the United States and do what they did. They will find a way to do it, and evil has to be stopped. Well, that's a good place to leave it, as good as any at least. Nick Berg, the book, we didn't get a chance to talk much about the book. It's called Shadows of Tehran. Check it out. It's a, as he said, it's a novel but kind of a memoir. Fascinating stuff. Nick Berg, thank you so much. I appreciate it, Papa. Thank you so much. Thanks so much for joining us. you
From the publisher
"Shadows of Tehran" author Nick Berg joins Carlo to talk the Iran War and why it's "your fight," too.
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