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a16z Podcast Episode Notes
Episode Title
From Code Search to AI Agents: Inside Sourcegraph's Transformation with CTO Beyang Liu
Podcast Overview The a16z Podcast discusses technology and culture trends, focusing on the interplay between these fields and their implications for the future. This specific episode features Beyang Liu, CTO of Sourcegraph, who shares insights about the company's evolution, the impact of AI on software development, and the competitive landscape of AI models.
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Key Themes and Discussions
- Transformation of Sourcegraph
- Sourcegraph began with the goal of improving code search and navigation.
- Transitioned to developing AMP, a coding agent that combines AI technologies with existing tools.
- AI and Development Productivity
- Beyang Liu highlights how AI has revolutionized coding practices, increasing productivity but making the experience less enjoyable for developers.
- Many developers report feeling more productive yet find coding has lost its fun aspect.
- Agents and Open-source Models
- Liu's team has noticed that many effective coding models they use are of Chinese origin, raising concerns about dependency on foreign technology.
- The shift towards using AI agents means that correctness and logic in coding are increasingly delegated to these systems.
- The Narrative of AI Safety
- Liu argues the prevailing "AGI apocalypse" narrative is misguided and overly simplistic.
- He suggests that the real danger lies in regulatory fear that stifles American innovation and leads to reliance on Chinese models.
- Dependency on Chinese Models
- Sourcegraph's coding agent, AMP, has been successful, but it relies heavily on models that have their roots in Chinese laboratories.
- Liu expresses concerns that America could cede control of the AI revolution due to restrictive policies affecting open-source development.
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Insights from Beyang Liu
- Productivity vs. Enjoyment: Liu emphasizes that while AI tools enhance productivity, they can diminish the enjoyment of coding, leading to a reliance on tools rather than creative problem-solving.
- Model Selection Philosophy: Liu’s approach is agent-centric rather than model-centric, focusing on how agents interact with inputs rather than the specifics of the models they use.
- Future of Software Engineering: Liu predicts a shift towards a more orchestrated role for developers, where they manage multiple agents rather than engage in hands-on coding.
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Implications for the Future
- Regulatory Considerations: The podcast discusses the implications of current regulatory frameworks on AI development, particularly in the U.S., and how they might stifle innovation in the face of global competition.
- Open Source Models: The conversation raises important questions about the future of open-source models in the U.S. and highlights the current dominance of Chinese models, potentially leading to a shift in the technological power balance.
- Creative Process in Coding: The role of human creativity in coding remains crucial, even as AI tools take on more responsibilities. Developers will still need to articulate their visions and make decisions based on trade-offs between speed, quality, and cost.
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Conclusion This episode underscores the transformative impact of AI on software development, the complexities of model dependency, and the importance of fostering a competitive ecosystem for AI innovation in the U.S. As Sourcegraph navigates these waters, Beyang Liu's insights provide a valuable perspective on both the challenges and opportunities facing the tech industry today.
Resources
- Follow Beyang Liu on X: [Beyang Liu](https://x.com/beyang)
- Follow Martin Casado on X: [Martin Casado](https://x.com/martin_casado)
- Follow Guido Appenzeller on X: [Guido Appenzeller](https://x.com/appenz)
- a16z on X: [A16Z](https://x.com/a16z)
- a16z on LinkedIn: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z)
Note The information shared in this podcast should not be construed as legal, business, tax, or investment advice. For more details, please refer to [a16z disclosures](http://a16z.com/disclosures).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Current Landscape of AI in Coding
0:46 to 2:11
Discussion on the evolving role of AI in software development and its implications.
“That narrative, I think, is is largely been dispelled within our circles.”
Narratives Around AI Safety
2:12 to 3:55
Exploration of societal narratives concerning AI safety and public perception.
“whether it's already too late to catch up, and what happens when the atomic unit of software isn't a function anymore, but a stochastic subroutine you can't fully control.”
Sourcegraph's Journey and Innovations
4:28 to 7:21
Beyang Liu shares insights on Sourcegraph's evolution and the development of its coding agent.
“So maybe talk through a little bit about what you've been working on, maybe pre-AI and now, just to level set.”
Building Efficient Coding Tools
7:22 to 8:39
Discussion on the focus and strategies of Sourcegraph in enhancing coding efficiency.
“okay, let's build this into some of the existing things that we've created.”
The Shift to an Advertisement-Based Model
8:40 to 10:17
Beyang explains Sourcegraph's transition to an ad-based revenue model and its implications.
“Which is on one hand, I'm like, this is the boutique.”
Agent-Centric Approach to AI
10:18 to 14:01
Exploration of Sourcegraph's philosophy on agent-centric AI models versus standard approaches.
“So I had a conversation with somebody that works on Cloud Code, which is a very successful CLI tool.”
Exploring the Concept of Agents in AI
14:01 to 16:49
Learn about the role of agents in AI systems and how they differ from traditional models.
“and you swap out the model then there's no guarantee that that thing is going to work well with the model that you swapped in.”
Evaluating AI Performance: Evals and Their Challenges
16:50 to 18:36
Understand the effectiveness of evals in testing AI agents and the limitations they present.
“And, you know, it is a bit of a dice roll every time, right?”
Market Dynamics and Pricing in AI Development
18:37 to 20:52
Discuss the market landscape for AI models and the implications of pricing strategies.
“of, you know, 2023 or whatnot, we had a coding tool that would do coding autocomplete and the kind of like banner top line metric there was completion acceptance rate.”
The Role of Open Source Models in AI
20:53 to 24:45
Examine the significance of open source models and their impact on the AI ecosystem.
“And the Smart Agent is the one where we're like, okay, we're not, we will always only do usage-based pricing for that because we want to keep that at the frontier of smartness.”
Show all 23 chapters
Future of Software Engineering: IDEs vs. AI Agents
24:46 to 28:00
Explore predictions about the evolution of software engineering tools in the next decade.
“And then we also have a model that does kind of like edit suggestions.”
The Future of Software Engineering
28:00 to 28:33
Explore the evolving landscape of software engineering in the next decade.
“I mean, now we have parameters like how much reasoning do you want?”
AI's Impact on Coding Practices
28:33 to 29:34
Learn how AI transforms the coding process and developer roles.
“I mean, listen, you're like one of the people at this.”
Human Creativity in Software Development
29:34 to 30:59
Understand the ongoing importance of human creativity in coding despite automation.
“And I'm really playing the role more of, like, an orchestrator.”
Challenges of Code Review in AI Era
30:59 to 32:24
Discuss the shift in code review dynamics and developer frustrations.
“And when you talk to practitioners today, a lot of them are very, it's bittersweet.”
The Role of AI in Code Review Tools
32:24 to 33:16
Examine how AI can enhance code review processes and tools.
“So we launched a review panel in our editor extension, last week, that's, it doesn't get all the way there, but I think it's the first step.”
Open Source Models and Dependencies
33:16 to 35:18
Explore the implications of using open-source models in software development.
“So I actually want to get more into the policy side because I do think like, listen, a lot of the way this goes is the way the model goes.”
U.S. Competitive Landscape in AI Models
35:18 to 36:58
Analyze the competition between U.S. and Chinese AI models and its consequences.
“where most systems are heavily dependent on models of Chinese origin.”
Myths and Realities of AGI
36:58 to 38:39
Debunk common myths surrounding Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
“Like never experienced anything like this before in my life.”
Policy Implications for AI Development
38:39 to 40:18
Discuss the regulatory landscape and its impact on AI innovation.
“Because now Chachabuti has been out for like three some years and everyone and their mom has used it.”
Barriers to Building Competitive AI Models
40:18 to 42:00
Identify the barriers to creating competitive AI models in the U.S.
“I don't know why OpenAI released the open source models the way they did, but it seems like they were very, very sensitive to what data was in them.”
Navigating Regulatory Challenges in AI
42:00 to 44:20
Explore the complexities and evolving landscape of AI regulations and their impact on startups.
“All of the policy stuff, all the copyright stuff, all the lawsuits.”
Guiding Principles for AI Policy
44:20 to 45:25
Learn strategies to foster a competitive AI environment while avoiding regulatory pitfalls.
“Do as much as possible to ensure a dynamic and competitive AI ecosystem within the U.S.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This is the first time in computer science I can think of where we've actually abdicated like correctness and logic to us. Like in the past, it was a resource, right? So maybe the performance is different, maybe the availability is different, but like, whatever I put in, I'm going to get back out. But now we're like, figure out this problem for me. You talk to some devs and they're like, you know, I've never been more productive, but coding isn't fun anymore. That's one of the things that we're trying to solve for it. It's like, amazing new technology, it feels like magic. Never experienced anything like this before in my life.
0:27The narrative that was spun was like, this thing will just, you know, run our lives for us or it's going to kill us all. Total annihilation. Like Terminator. And there's just like absolutely no danger that like this thing's going to, you know, acquire a mind of its own and like try to reach out to the computer and kill you. If you use this every day, right, this idea that this thing could take over the world. Yeah, exactly. That narrative, I think, is is largely been dispelled within our circles. But I think that it's it's sort of like taken on a life of its own in other circles. And it's made its way to some of the halls of policymaking in the U.S.
1:00This is the old adage of like, you know, do you blame it on ignorance or malice? I honestly don't know, but it is clearly like nonsensical. And I think very much in the national interests to be still telling this story. The United States invented the AI revolution. We built the chips, trained the frontier models and created the entire ecosystem. But right now, if you're a startup building AI products, you're probably writing your code on Chinese models. Today's guest is Byung Liu, one of the co-founders of Sourcegraph. Byung is joined by A16Z's Martin Casado and Guido Appenzeller to talk about the shift he's seeing on the front lines of software development today.
1:41Sourcegraph's coding agent, which is hit number one on the benchmark for merged pull requests, runs on open source models. Many of them are Chinese. Not because of ideology, but because they work better for what the company needs. Here's the tension. Byung studied machine learning under Daphne Kohler at Stanford. He spent a decade building developer tools. He knows the technology cold. And his view is that we're sleepwalking into a dependency problem, not because Chinese models are dangerous, but because American policy has made it nearly impossible to compete in open source AI. We dig into why the Terminator narrative around AI safety might be our biggest strategic mistake, whether it's already too late to catch up, and what happens when the atomic unit of software isn't a function anymore, but a stochastic subroutine you can't fully control.
2:28Brian, thanks for coming and joining. So the topic today is AI encoding, but I mean, I would say you're one of the world's experts on this. And so we would love to kind of do a deep dive in kind of how you view the problem, how you view the solution. Of course, you're a co-founder and CTO of Sourcegraph. So we'll talk a bit about that as well. Of course, we've got Guido. Thanks for being here. And so maybe just to start, we can do a bit of a background on you and then we'll just kind of dig into details. Yeah, so background, I've been working on dev tools for more than the past decade of my life.
2:59I started Sourcegraph about 10 plus years ago, brought the world's first kind of like production legit code search engine to market and pushed that to, I think, a good portion of the Fortune 500. Prior to that, I was a developer at Palantir. And I guess now it's like the early days, right? That's where I met my co-founder Quinn and we were working on data analysis software and a lot of large enterprise code bases that we're kind of like dropshipped into and realized that there was a big need for better tooling for understanding massive code bases. And then before that, I guess relevant now is I actually did machine learning as a concentration when I was doing my studies.
3:36So I did some computer vision research. I didn't know that. Yeah, under Daphne Kohler at the... I did this. You are actually an AI guy. Yeah, yeah. OGAI. Dawson Angler, like Tyler stuff. I thought you were a systems guy. You talked like a systems guy. Yeah, yeah. For me, like this whole phenomenon of like LLMs and coding, it's almost like a homecoming of sorts I didn't know that. That's awesome. Definitely taught me AI as well. She's a great teacher. I got to say, that was like the one class I was so happy I comped out of because I didn't think I would do well. If I didn't pass the comp, I thought it would defeat me.
4:12I think I failed to comp too many times. You had to do it. There were those two. I was the TA for that class, actually. What, 21? 228. 228. Yeah, that's right. That's what it was. Yeah, yeah. So, cool. Great. So Sourcecraft started code search, navigation, but then now you've been making ways with AMP, which is like, you know, an agent, would we call it? So maybe talk through a little bit about what you've been working on, maybe pre-AI and now, just to level set. Yeah, so kind of like the history of the company is we were really built to make coding a lot more efficient inside large organizations and to make the practice of actually building software way more accessible, primarily to professional software engineers.
4:50But I think our eventual vision was always to expand the franchise. And we started by tackling like the key problem, which is enabling humans to understand code. Because if you've ever worked inside a large code base, you know that that probably takes anywhere from 80 to 99 % of the time. And then the remainder is when you actually understand the problem well enough to actually write the code. So that's where we kind of like built up our domain expertise. And then when LLM sort of matured, it was something that we were always kind of like monitoring in the back of our minds. originally looked at LLMs and embeddings as a way to enhance the ranking signals that we're incorporating into our search engine.
5:26And then when things really hit their stride with Chachapiti and all that, it was fairly obvious to us that there was a big opportunity to combine LLMs, which are this amazing technology, with a lot of the stuff that we'd built up to that point. And then, I guess, to round that out, finally, our latest product is this coding agent called AMP. What's interesting about AMP, and I don't want to be a couple of things about AMP, because it's kind of viewed as like a very sophisticated kind of opinionated view on agents. Do you share that or is that just kind of the outside? I would say there's certain things that we're doing that I think are quite unique.
6:00It was the top recently on one of these benchmarks, right? Yeah, I think there's like some startup out there that compares pull request merge rates or something. We managed to claim the top spot. That's awesome. Yeah, it was very gratifying to see. But again, like I would say that I think we're opinionated on some parts of our philosophy of building agents. And my own take is I think a lot of these opinions will soon become widespread. But there's other elements of what we're doing, which are like people like to read in a lot to AI these days. And sometimes it's just like, look, we actually did something very simple here at Yield of Good Results, and we shipped that and it works very well.
6:35Okay, so I think your focus is really on a large code basis. How is that structurally different from, you know, me coding my little Homebrew 201? Yeah, so it's funny you mentioned that. Like historically, the company's focus has really been on large code bases. But with AMP, we decided to build it almost completely separate from the existing code. And the reason for that was, one, we built AMP. AMP is really, at this point, like seven, eight months old. So we started AMP in around like February, March this year. And that was right at the wave of this new type of LLM hitting the world, the like agentic tool use LLM.
7:11Finally worked. Yeah, finally worked, right? Like after so many demo videos, finally there was a model that could actually do robust tool calling and compose that with reasoning. And our original tack was like, okay, let's build this into some of the existing things that we've created. But the more we started playing around with the technology, the more we sort of came to the conclusion that this was actually truly disruptive and we should actually start from first principles to see, you know, build the agent from the ground up and see what tools we really need. So what we've arrived at is the coding agent, which works, I think, very well in large code bases because, again, we push this to a lot of our customers.
7:46But it's also great for, like, hobby coding. Like, I spun my dad up recently on it, and he's been using it to create these, like, iPad games for our kid because, you know, typical Asian dad. Trying to teach him math, right? I want to teach him arithmetic and whatnot. And so my dad, who's never written a single line of code in his life, is able to just, like, hey, make a simple game that has him count the numbers, and then if he gets it right, a little rocket ship blasts off. So it's kind of interesting. It's a really interesting time to be building because even if you're building for professional developers as we are, a lot of the technology ends up being just kind of widely accessible.
8:24This is the new parroting. You talk as a parent not to write the games for your kids that are age-appropriate and they're well-integrated with curriculum, what they're supposed to learn. I love it. Another thing that's been kind of made kind of splash is you've recently decided to go to an advertisement-based model. So like, on one hand, so I've got this dissonance internally, Which is on one hand, I'm like, this is the boutique. Yeah. Sophisticated. On the other hand, I'm like, and it's also for everybody with ads. And so, like, how do you kind of reconcile? It's really funny because I think we had this sort of reputation for being, like, the primo agent.
8:55Yeah, totally. Like, the super intelligent one. But we never had, like, a flat rate pricing model. We did pure usage-based pricing. And that also meant that there was never any incentive to switch to a cheaper model for our users. So our attack was, like, the most intelligence and you just pay for the inference cost. But as we built more and more, we kind of realized there's sort of this efficient frontier that you can draw. This two by two grid and one axis is intelligence, but the other axis is latency. And there's multiple interest points along this tradeoff curve. It's not just that having the smartest model makes your experience the best.
9:29The smartest model often tends to be a significant amount slower than other models on the market. And so we felt that there was like an opportunity for us to create like a faster top level agent that couldn't do as complex of coding tasks, but it could do these like targeted edits. And when we started to play around with these small, fast models, we realized that, hey, actually, the inference costs are significantly lower. And that got us thinking like going back to folks like my dad, right? Like he's just doing this stuff on the side. He doesn't want to spend hundreds of dollars per month to create these kind of like simple games.
10:00We're like, hmm, maybe there's like a model here. I think it started as a joke. Someone was like, we should just do ads and see how that works. And everyone was like, nah, that'll never work. But then it just kind of kept coming back up. And at one point, we're like, all right, let's just try it and see how it works. And we launched it, and it's been growing very quickly since then. Can I dig philosophically into this just a little bit? So I had a conversation with somebody that works on Cloud Code, which is a very successful CLI tool. And this person was like, you know, what we've done over time is we've literally just removed, you know, stuff between the user and the model.
10:32Like, that's it. Like that's like kind of like the way that we improve things are we just like do less and let the model do more. And so I guess that makes, you know, it sounds kind of intellectually or intuitively interesting. It kind of makes sense. But on the other hand, it seems expensive. You're like, here is this state of the art model that costs a billion dollars to train. And like now it's just the user and the model. And so it's almost like that statement is almost contrary to an advertisement-based model or like what you're talking about, like, you know, like a fast model or smaller models.
11:09Yeah. So, like, are we seeing two parallel paths in the industry? I, so there's definitely, you can, there's definitely different, like, working styles, right? Like depending on the task or maybe depending on the person, you talk to people using coding agents and some of them are like, I just want to write a paragraph long prompt and then have the agent go figure it out. I want to come back to something that's like mostly working. And then there's other people who say like, actually, I don't want to do that because half the time I myself don't have a clear idea of what I want yet. The creative process is sort of one where you kind of like figure out what the software looks like as you go along.
11:53And sometimes it's the same person saying both things, right? Like when I go, there's some features where it's like implement billing, where I'm like, okay, I know exactly what protocols we need to support and the Stripe integration. I know what feedback loops we need to hit. Then it's like, okay, big prompt, agent, go at it. But then there's other types of development where it's like, you know, I want to build a brand new feature. We just shipped this code review panel in our editor extension. And that was a kind of like situation where I was like, I don't actually know what this review experience should look like because it's not me reviewing other people's code, it's me reviewing agent's code, which is like a new workflow.
12:30And for that, I kind of did want like a more interactive back and forth interaction between me and the agent. So I don't think it's necessarily like these two things don't have to be completely separate products, but they are distinct working modalities. Interesting. That's a great way to put it. How do you think about the difference between using somebody else's model, like one of the Soda Labs versus building your own model versus using an open source model? How does that fit in your philosophy? Yeah, so I would say our philosophy is not model-centric, it's more agent-centric. So we view the model as an implementation detail.
13:12Yeah, I don't know what that means. Okay, so let me explain. So when you're interacting with an agent, at the end of the day, you care about how that agent is going to respond to your inputs. You know, what tools it's going to use, what sort of trajectories it's going to take, what sort of thinking it does. A lot of that goes back to the model, but it's not solely dependent on the model. There's a lot of other things that can influence how an agent behaves. There's the system prompt. There's a set of tools that you give it. There's a tooling environment. There's a tool descriptions. There's the sort of instructions that you give it for connecting to feedback loops.
13:43and with the same model with wildly different like tool descriptions and system prompts you actually get like you know completely different behaviors out of that model. Is that true in both directions? Like with the same prompts and two completely different models would get different behaviors? Oh for sure, for sure. It's like if you have like an agent harness like a set of tool descriptions and you swap out the model then there's no guarantee that that thing is going to work well with the model that you swapped in. And so what we view as like the kind of atomic composable unit is not the model.
14:14It's this thing called the agent, which is essentially this contract of like user puts text in and gets certain behaviors out. And that agent is really a product of both the model plus all these other things that I just listed. And so when it comes to like figure out what models we want to use, it's not so much like, hey, we want to use like the latest quote unquote frontier model from XYZ lab. It's really about, hey, what behavior do we want the agent to take, or in some cases the sub-agent, and how do we find the right model that enables that agent to do its job? It sounds so hard to me. Like, this is the first time in computer science I can think of where we've actually abdicated, like, correctness and logic to a certain degree.
14:59Like, in the past, it was a resource, right? So, like, whatever, it's not logic. It's like, okay, so maybe the performance is different, maybe the availability is different, but like whatever I put in, I'm going to get back out, whether it's a database or a compute or whatever. Like these are like, you know, but now we're like, figure out this problem for me, right? So you're kind of abdicating like, you know, core logic and correctness. Your unit test comes back with works 45 % of the cases. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The non-determinism is something that people struggle with a lot. But so for me, I actually do think, you know, like historically, pre-AI, like when you think about computer systems, the basic unit of composability is like the function call in programming, right?
15:39So it's like when you think about your system, it's like this function calls out to these other functions and those other functions delegate to these other functions. I do think there's still an analog to that in the agent world. Like the agent is really the analog of the function, but just updated or generalized to AI. Can I just push on this? Because I mean, listen, call me a traditionalist. Yeah. For me, like computer infrastructure is compute network and storage, right? And like databases. And these are resources that are abstracted. Sure. Like, so give me storage, give me network. Yep. But, like, the semantics, like what actually happens, I write, right?
16:16That's, like, my code. We're here. We're, like, figure it out for me. It's, like, we're abdicating actual, like, logic and correctness. It just feels, like, in a way, like, a little bit, you know, like, in your case, for example, if you pick up, you know, let's say you're using model V2.1 and then you go to model V2.2. Like, you're going to have wildly different answers, right? It's almost like a new instruction set or something. Yeah, you might have different answers, but I think if you construct the agent right, they're not going to be wildly different. So, like, for instance, we have a sub-agent that's designed to search for things, like uncover relevant context.
16:51And, you know, it is a bit of a dice roll every time, right? Like, it takes a slightly different trajectory. It might search for different things. But it's to the point now where if I want to find something in the code base, I have, like, 99 % confidence that this thing will eventually be able to kind of like stochastically iterate to the right answer. And so in that way of thinking, it's like, yeah, how it gets there might vary, but if I wanted to do a specific thing, it's reliable enough that I can invoke it. It feels like there's kind of a backlash right now in the industry to evals. Like, do you view like this is an eval problem or like a runtime system problem?
17:30Yeah, so, you know, my take on evals is evals are definitely effective as a sort of like unit test or a smoke test. Yeah. Because if you push a change to your agent and it breaks something, you want to know, right? Like if there's like an important workflow that you're like, hey, this should work reliably well, because if this doesn't work, then probably a lot of other things break. And that's a great instance where you want an eval that will alert you when it goes from green to red. I think where it gets hairier is treating evals as a kind of like optimization target. Because any eval set, like what are you trying to capture?
18:09If you're building an end user product, at the end of the day, what you care about is the product experience. And so you construct the eval set to kind of proxy the vibes of the user using the product. And by definition, that means your eval set is always like lagging a little bit from the frontier. because it takes time to like distill what is a good product experience into a set of evals. And we've had multiple times in our past where we've picked a number. Just to take an example, like with, you know, back in the kind of like code completion days of, you know, 2023 or whatnot, we had a coding tool that would do coding autocomplete and the kind of like banner top line metric there was completion acceptance rate.
18:50You know, like, given that I suggest this change to the user, what is the likelihood they're going to accept? That seems like, you know, bulletproof, right? But actually, like, I think in building that, we ended up over-optimizing that to a certain extent. Because there's, like, any metric you choose, there's going to be a way to game it. Well, I mean, even in this one, like, okay, so, like, the developer accepts it, but do they end up committing it? Yeah. Oh, they committed it, but, you know, like, whatever. Did, like, the pass code review? Yeah, exactly. Did the PR get accepted? There's, like, a subtle bug introduced or whatnot.
19:20Or, yeah. You know, did it get merged into Maine? Like, I mean, it just feels like, you know. Yeah, yeah. You know, like, this is kind of an adjacent topic, but something that Guido and I discuss a lot is to what extent the market is Pareto efficient on the Pareto frontier. Like, if you can trade off, like, let's say, performance for cost or intelligence for cost, like, will the market kind of adopt that uniformly, or does it just optimize only for speed only for correctness. Like, being on the front lines, we would love, you know, your sense on this. Here's a simple question. We ask this question a lot and nobody seems to know.
20:00Like, is the question here, like, what matters more, speed or intelligence? It's whether the Pareto frontier is what matters or if it's kind of, there's points on the Pareto frontier that matter, right? So you can imagine. Oh, okay, yeah. So traditional pricing psychology is you're the expensive one or you're the cheap one, right? And everything in the middle is called the value gap, which people don't, use, right? And so, originally, we were like, oh, that happens here. So, either you buy the most expensive one, you buy the cheapest one. But actually, as we kind of look in the market, it actually feels like most of the frontier is pretty full.
20:31Like, developers are pretty sophisticated. Like, you know, different, you know, there's different cost sensitivities, different price sensitivities. Yeah. So, you know, it's funny that you mentioned this, like, you know, the cheap option versus, like, the premium option. It just so happens that AMP has two top-level agents. There's a smart agent, and there's a fast agent. Oh, that's interesting. And the Fast Agent is the one that's ad-supported, like, that we can offer for free. And the Smart Agent is the one where we're like, okay, we're not, we will always only do usage-based pricing for that because we want to keep that at the frontier of smartness.
21:02But that being said, like, I don't know, like, maybe there's, like, a third point in there that could make sense. It really just comes out of the vibes at the end of the day, like, as we use this more heavily and see the usage patterns emerge. The mid-agent. Yeah, the mid-agent. Like, I honestly, yeah. Well, if you put it that way, then they're like, oh, like, yeah, the galaxy brain idea is you either want, you know, smart or fat. Cool. So, I mean, if you're open to it, I'd love to dig into a bit on kind of your view on open source models. Yeah, sure. Do you use them? Yes. You know, do you think that they are an important part of the ecosystem?
21:43Yeah, so we do use a variety of open source models. You know, we use both closed source and open source models quite heavily. But the open source ones, I think, are becoming a bigger theme now for a couple reasons. One is, you know, with an open source or open weight model, you can post-train them, right? Which means, like, if you have a domain-specific task, like AMP has a growing number of sub-agents that are specialized for a specific task like contact retrieval or like extra reasoning, library fetching. Those are more constrained tasks where you don't necessarily need like frontier general intelligence.
22:25If anything, you want faster, right? And so the benefit of having open weight models is you can look at the thing that you're trying to optimize for, like what that subagent needs and post-train the model to accomplish that more effectively. And the other element of open-weight models that's very appealing is just the pricing aspect of it. Like there's now more and more like effective open-weight models that are emerging on the scene that are actually quite robust at agentic tool use. You know, the landscape has changed immensely since like June of this year. We've gone from like, you know, there was really only one really good agentic tool use model to now there's like...
23:11Could you name that? I mean, it'd be great to actually, I mean, I opened... Yeah, I mean, like, so, you know, originally there was Claude, right? Like Sonnet or Opus. That was the first agentic tool use model. And that sort of, you know, ushered in in the current agent wave. But now, you know, there's GP5, there's KimiK2, there's QuantryCoder, GLM. Are these open source models on par or pretty close? It depends on the workload. So I would say in our evaluations for kind of like the top level smart coding agent driver, we still tend to prefer Sonnet or GPT-5. but for kind of like quick targeted edits or specific sub-agents I think more and more we're preferring smaller models because they have better latency characteristics and because the complexity of the task isn't high like you reach a ceiling it's like once you reach a certain level of quality there's diminishing returns and then you start optimizing for latency because that gets you more, you know, interactivity.
24:28What's the smallest models you can use for an effective agent? I mean, for an agent right now, it's probably still fairly large, like talking to probably like hundreds of billions of parameters for kind of like a top-level agent. But for like search agents, you could go smaller than that. And then we also have a model that does kind of like edit suggestions. So, you know, for those times where you still have to go into the code and manually edit stuff, this thing suggests the next edit that you'll make. And for that, we use a very small model, like, you know, single digit billions parameters. So do you train your own models?
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25:09Yeah, we do. Oh, wow. But I would say we don't train them from scratch. No pre-training, it's mostly? No pre-training. That'd be dumb. Yeah. At this point, it's just like it would be fiscally irresponsible, right? Probably pointless. Yeah. Are these for special use cases? Like a lot of the products that we work with, let's say just outside of coding, just like a lot of products that we work with, you know, it just, I mean, here's this general view. Pre-training is done. Yeah. Right? Paying people to create data, we've hit economic equilibrium, right? It's like, you can keep paying people, but like, you know, we're hitting diminishing returns there because you need kind of more expensive people and like you need 10 times more data.
25:50And so at some point you hit equilibrium. Yep. But, you know, like there's a lot of product data out there and there's a lot of users out there. And like, you know, the solution domain is enormous. And so you can start building smaller models. And, you know, so it's like, you know, like A, is that correct? And B, you know, like the models that you trained, do they kind of fit in that general pattern of specific smaller models? I think that's spot on, actually. It's like the very large generalist models were great. and they still are great for experimentation because it's almost like, you know, you train this thing on all sorts of data and it's almost like a discovery process where like the training team themselves don't quite know, you know, what behaviors might emerge.
26:32But once you map those to specific workloads, specific agents that you want to build, then you have a much clearer target. And, you know, it's widely known that like a lot of the model labs do this now behind the scenes. Like they might expose an API that's like, you know, one model, behind the scenes, they're routing to, you know, smaller models. And you can also do that at the application layer. Like if you have an agent architecture like we do, there's all sorts of specialized tasks. Like we've broken down the process of like software creation to various tasks like context fetching or, you know, debugging or things like that.
27:08And once you have a specialized agent for each, then you take a look at, you know, what the agent needs to succeed and you try to get the model as small as possible while still maintaining the requisite quality bar. So it's not just a per-rate or frontier of quality versus cost, but there's like a use case as well. There's also multiple graphs. Yeah, exactly. It's basically per agent. Like every agent maps to a workflow. Yeah. It's emulating some workflow that, you know, maybe approximately maps to something that a human used to do. Maybe it doesn't, but it's like a subroutine. And this is why I go back to like the function analogy.
27:49Yeah, yeah. And so for any given agent. It's a subroutine where you abdicate the logic. I mean, it's a stochastic subroutine. It's even weirder. I mean, now we have parameters like how much reasoning do you want? So it's a tunable subroutine. Yeah, yeah. It's like, how powerful do you want to make this? What's your budget? Yeah. But there's like a mini Pareto frontier for each of these tasks, right? And then the optimal point along that frontier is different for each task. So I actually want to dig into, you know, like the open source models, the implications. I mean, I know that you've got opinions on that.
28:21We've got opinions. It's an interesting topic. But before we do that, so in 10 years, are we using an IDE or are we using agents on a CLI? What happens to software engineering? In 10 years. Simple question. Okay, so. I mean, listen, you're like one of the people at this. No, no, no. I used for quite a while. I do have a take on this. You're probably literally like the world expert on this question. I'm serious. Yeah. So here's my take. Like, I don't think it's not going to be an ID that looks like any ID that exists today. And it's not going to be like a terminal that looks like any terminal that exists today.
28:57My view is that, and I don't think this is like a particularly unique view. It's just that, you know, the effect of AI on every single knowledge domain, including coding, is that it's just going to enable the human to level up. Right. So the job that you do already, like that, like my job has changed so much in the past year. Like, I think about all the kind of, like, toilsome, like, line-by-line editing that I did, like, a year ago today. It seems, like, completely foreign. I, like, honestly don't think I could go back at this point. Now, when I'm doing stuff, it's more at the level of, like, telling the agent to make the specific edits or execute, like, a specific plan.
29:34And I'm really playing the role more of, like, an orchestrator. Now and then you still have to, like, pop in and make some manual edits when it gets stuck. But increasingly, I would say by sheer lines of code volume, probably more than 90 % of the code that I write these days is through AMP. And I think it's only going to get higher and higher level over time. And so when we think about the interface that a human will interact with primarily, I think the future looks like something that allows you to orchestrate the job of multiple agents and, crucially, something that allows you as the human to understand the essentials of what these agents are outputting.
30:18And I actually think that's probably the limiting bottleneck today. Of course, yeah, comprehension. It's like the human comprehension just on, like, does it map to, like, my understanding of, like, the problem needs, even at, like, a business size. Because there are fundamental trade-offs in the system. Yes, yes. But I think... You can't wish those away. You can't wish them away. And the human is the bottleneck, but I think the human is still essential and will still remain essential 10 years from now in software engineering because it's fundamentally a creative process. No, no, that's right. Sorry, I just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing.
30:46Oh, yeah. Like a human has in their head of what they want to accomplish. Yes. And only the human has that in their head. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so like often that's going to require choosing a point between two tradeoffs. Yes. Right? Like whatever that is. Yes. And so like there has to be some way that this articulation happens. Yes. And when you talk to practitioners today, a lot of them are very, it's bittersweet. Because on the one hand, it's like, oh my God, agents, they're writing all this code and they're actually pretty good at it. On the other hand, it's like, oh, I'm spending 90 % of my time essentially doing code review now.
31:21Which is, you know, there's like the one in 100 dev that you talk to that says, like, I really love code review. The rest of us are like, oh man, it's like such a drag. while becoming middle managers of coding. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, you talk to some devs and they're like, you know, I've never been more productive, but coding isn't fun anymore. And so, you know, that's one of the things that we're trying to solve for, actually. The beauty of the elegance is gone. It's now all looking at the implementations requirements. Yeah, it's that, but also it's just like the task of like reviewing code, I think, is a slog.
31:52And like classical code review interfaces are just not that good. Like, I think they were never that good, but it wasn't like blindingly obvious because the rate at which like lines of code were shipping was just a remarkable point. It's a super simple example, right? Today, if I review code from pretty much any coding agent out there, typically it's just like file by file by file by file. Yeah, yeah. Like grouping this by task or something like that or explaining it, a couple of arrows with little buckles. Yeah, exactly. You are literally like... There's so much low-hanging fruit here. So we launched a review panel in our editor extension, last week, that's, it doesn't get all the way there, but I think it's the first step.
32:32And it's already, like, it's way better than, like, an existing, like, code host review tool. Like, it's mind-boggling to me that, like, we live in an age where, like, you can literally have a robot, like, you know, one shot a very large change, and then you pop over to, like, you know, GitHub PRs, and you're clicking, you know, expand hunk, expand hunk, expand hunk. No code intelligence, can't edit. No diagrams. Yeah, yeah. It just feels like, you know, it's like we have like a Ferrari engine, but then part of our workflow still requires like strapping it to this like horse and buggy style thing.
33:05So anyways. It's like I create a microchip and then I give you an oscilloscope. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. All right. So listen, we're moving on on time here. So I actually want to get more into the policy side because I do think like, listen, a lot of the way this goes is the way the model goes. Yep. the open source ecosystem, we see it all over the place. Not even talking about source draft, but I would say if a company walks in now that's a product company that's decided that they need to post-train their own models, it's going to be on an open source model. Yep. And more and more of these are Chinese models.
33:41Yep. And so you mentioned that you do use open source models and Chinese models. So like, how do you think about that as far as like, A, maybe just like the implications of dependency and then B, what does this mean? Like maybe more holistically with the United States and the ecosystem. Yeah. So like first off, like in terms of our production setup, like every model that we hit is hosted on American servers. So from like an information security point of view, I think this is like best practice across the industry. It's like you don't hit models that are hosted in China. Yeah. So like from that part, it's fine.
34:17I would say though, if you take a step back, it is fairly concerning. because my view is that as the model landscape evolves, you're going to start to see a flattening in terms of model capabilities, right? Like there's going to be a healthy competition with the model layer, and there's going to be a number of options for choosing a model at a given point in the Pareto frontier. And with that flattening, there's a strong incentive for application builders to, at a given capability level, use the one that's open for the reasons stated before. And because the most capable open weight models right now are of Chinese origin, it essentially means that application builders around the world are choosing to post-train on top of these models.
35:07And so if the U.S. open weight ecosystem doesn't catch up, we're kind of in danger of the world migrating to a world where most systems are heavily dependent on models of Chinese origin. Do we have competitive U.S. open source models right now? I mean... Do we have any competitive non-Chinese? If you look at Europe? You know, we've sampled, like, a good portion of the model landscape because, again, like, we have all these sub-agents and agents who want to find the best ones for the job. And, frankly, like, the ones that we find most effective at agentic workloads. They're almost all, I would say they are all of Chinese origin right now.
35:54And that's not to say that there haven't been good efforts by American companies. It's just that when you plop those into an agentic application, the tool use isn't quite robust enough. It's not quite there yet. Do you think this is a result of policy or funding or like... I think probably all of the above. I mean, the easy answer is like, yes, you know, it's a regulatory thing, this and that. I just don't know how true that is. I mean, it just turns out there's very sophisticated, like. You know, so it is interesting. Like, it's like, you know, the AI revolution was basically like born and created in the West, right?
36:37Down the street, I mean. Yeah, down the street. And the U.S. still holds a lead in basically like every part of the stack. whether it's chips or frontier intelligence. Basically, every place except open-weight models. And electronics, yeah. I guess that's the manufacturing aspect of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But from where I stand, it's like if you go back to the quote-unquote early days of the AI revolution back to 2022 or so, I feel like the narrative that was told, that was like the dominant narrative, was this one of like AGI at that point where it was kind of like this, it's like amazing new technology.
37:20It feels like magic, right? Like never experienced anything like this before in my life. And then the narrative that was spun was like, hey, AGI is nine. What does AGI mean? Well, either one, it's like utopia. All our problems are solved. This thing will just, you know, run our lives for us or it's going to kill us all. Total annihilation. Yeah, like Terminator style outcome. Skynet, yeah. I love the Balaji view of this. He's like, there's this very Abrahamic view of it. It's either like God or the devil, right? And then he's like, I'm Hindu. He's like, we've got a bunch of gods. Some are capricious, some are nice.
37:59Yeah. And I've chosen the Hindu view of this. Yeah, arguably that view of the model landscape was the right one in retrospect. And I think at the time, people using these models directly kind of realized this, right? It's like you use the models. They can emulate intelligence of a certain kind, but it's mostly pattern matching. And there's just absolutely no danger that this thing is going to acquire a mind of its own and try to reach out of the computer and kill you. If you use this every day, right, this idea that this thing could take over the world. Yeah, exactly. So now if you talk to practitioners, like anyone who's building it, and increasingly anyone who's using it, right?
38:42Because now Chachabuti has been out for like three some years and everyone and their mom has used it. Like people kind of understand what the limitations are. So like that narrative I think is largely been dispelled within our circles. But I think that it's sort of like taken on a life of its own in other circles. And it's made its way to some of the halls of policymaking in the U.S. I mean, it's part of the problem here that not every policymaker is using LMS day to day, to put it carefully. Yeah, I don't know. You know, this is the old adage of like, you know, do you blame it on, you know, ignorance or malice?
39:23I honestly don't know. Like, it's a black box, but it is like, it is clearly like nonsensical. and I think very much in the national interest to be still telling this story because it, one, it leads to kind of like overemphasis on like the model as the end-all be-all of AI, where in reality it's like pushing this, pushing the models into like all these different application areas where like the rubber meets the road and things become useful. Those systems, right? Yeah, but then also like when you think about making laws and regulations for this sort of stuff, if you've been sold on this sort of like Terminator-style narrative, that's going to put you in a very different mindset with respect to how much risk tolerance you're willing to take on, how much innovation you're going to allow in the ecosystem, and your tolerance for open-sourcing model weights.
40:13So, you know, you use a bunch of open-source models, and there's a question that we actually debate quite a bit, which is, assume the policy environment exists as it is, even with, like, infinite funding and infinite talent, could you still actually build competitive models or like now are we at a place that like we're just at a disadvantage just because of, like is it too late to actually assume that we can do it without actually changing policy? Like build adequate open way models? Well, let's just give an example. I don't know why OpenAI released the open source models the way they did, but it seems like they were very, very sensitive to what data was in them.
40:53And I presume this is kind of a concern around copyright. I don't know the answer to this. I just assume that. We haven't seen something come out of meta in quite a while. Like, are there even any open source model? So, like, it's just very unusual for the United States not to do this. And, like, the efforts that have done it have seemed to be, like, handicapped in one way. And so, like, there's one view of the world that, like, this isn't a tech problem. It isn't a money problem. We're already in the overhang of policy. Like, that's one view. And so, like, I guess my specific question is, do you think that is the case?
41:22or do you think we've just kind of, you know, haven't kind of gotten to it yet and we're going to come up with open source models? You know, I honestly don't know. Like, I don't have, like, inside knowledge of what goes on inside a lot of these research organizations. But it's super remarkable that, like, here we're in the U.S. You know, we were the first with open source models. We had Lama 3. And now he's like, listen, you're using Chinese models. Yeah. Like, where are the U.S. models? And then, you know, why aren't they there? And I guess my best guess, I mean, And again, you both can gut check me on this.
41:54It's like actually there's like all of the rhetoric around like developer liability, even though it didn't happen, but there was rhetoric around it. All of the policy stuff, all the copyright stuff, all the lawsuits. My guess is that, you know, a lot of these folks are gun shy. Yeah, I think that could very well be the case. And I think that the way that the regulatory landscape is evolving doesn't help at all as well. because there was an effort earlier this year to have kind of like a federal set of standards for AI model layer regulation, but that, I think, fell apart. And so now we're kind of like slow walking, in some case fast walking, towards this like patchwork quilt of state-by-state regulations.
42:40That wasn't very good. Some of that state regulation writes in that it applies to anybody making a model available in that particular state. So in theory, It's one state, every state tries to drive policy for all the United States. It's very vaguely worded, and it leaves a lot of room for interpretation, which is never good, I think, for... A lot of that hasn't been litigated either, right? Yeah. It massively increases complexity. I think for a small startup to build an open-way model at this point is extremely hard. Who wants to take that risk? It reminds me, like, back in the day when we were, like, looking at GDPR compliance.
43:17when that was the first thing. And I was talking with our legal team and external counsel and trying to read the text of that regulation and figure out, oh, is this thing technically in violation? It seems kind of high level. And the answer that I got was, look, honestly, these are underspecified. And it's really going to come down to some decision maker within that bureaucracy, and they're going to make a judgment call. and hopefully they lean towards going after, you know, the bigger fish in the pond before they come after you. So, you know. Paradoxically, this is the greatest case you could have ever given to the large social networking giants.
43:57These are the only ones that actually could have the legal teams and the policy teams to navigate this stuff. And we saw this up close as investors. We're like, as soon as these things came up, it basically entrenched the incumbents. Yeah. Who could come play? Last quick topic. If, you know, if you did have, like, some recommendation on, like, how we should think about policy going forward to kind of aid in, you know, open source efforts with the United States, what would you guide? Do as much as possible to ensure a dynamic and competitive AI ecosystem within the U.S. I mean, the best thing that we can do, I mean, we're America, like the best thing we can do is to take a step back and let the free market function.
44:33And so to that end, like ensuring there's kind of like a standard, like, you know, nationwide set of regulations that's, you know, clear and, you know, like well-specified to be going after like specific applications and application areas rather than, you know, like general, you know, existential risk at the model layer. That would be good. And then two, just ensuring that there's like competition at the model layer, avoiding any sort of like anti-competitive behavior. Regulatory lock-in. Yeah, regulatory lock-in, that sort of thing. You know, essentially like, you know, don't let the like Internet Explorer versus Netscape thing play out the way it did in like internet 1.0 with like the AI ecosystem.
45:18Yeah, we were very, very lucky that actually academia and the broad industry ended up erring on the side of openness. Let's hope this happens this time too. Yeah. Thanks for listening to this episode of the A16Z podcast. If you liked this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or review and share it with your friends and family. For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Follow us on X at A16Z and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com. Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode. As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only.
45:57It should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any A16Z fund. Please note that A16Z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com forward slash disclosures.
From the publisher
Sourcegraph's CTO just revealed why 90% of his code now comes from agents—and why the Chinese models powering America's AI future should terrify Washington. While Silicon Valley obsesses over AGI apocalypse scenarios, Beyang Liu's team discovered something darker: every competitive open-source coding model they tested traces back to Chinese labs, and US companies have gone silent after releasing Llama 3. The regulatory fear that killed American open-source development isn't hypothetical anymore—it's already handed the infrastructure layer of the AI revolution to Beijing, one fine-tuned model at a time.
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