Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the Zero-Sum AI Race

0:00a16z:We were the freak show and we spent 20 years for this moment. We're doing it. We're doing it. And I'm sure you're enjoying this as much as I am. I just got three things to say.

0:15Alex Karp:God bless our troops. God bless America. And gentlemen, start your attack.

0:25a16z:We are the power that actually has the decisive vote, and that is with military superiority. If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white-collar job, the most important thing Palantir is doing is to make sure that American warfighters are much more likely to come home. If we are going to outperform the rest of the world, our single advantage is...

0:56Alex Karp:There is a version of Silicon Valley that believes it operates outside of geopolitics. That the products it builds are neutral. That the rules of great power competition don't apply to software companies. Alex Karp has spent 20 years arguing the opposite. As co-founder and CEO of Palantir, he has built technology deployed on battlefields across the Middle East. and analytics infrastructure embedded in the Department of War. What has changed in the past year is harder to dismiss. American operations have demonstrated a level of precision and dominance that adversaries did not anticipate. Karp argues that is not an accident.

1:37Alex Karp:His warning to the rest of the industry is equally direct. If AI companies don't make common cause with the defense establishment, nationalization becomes the politically obvious move. This conversation with Alex Karp, co-founder and CEO of Palantir, was recorded at the A16Z American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. Dr. Karp, it is a pleasure to finally have the OG American Dynamism founder on stage with us at the fourth annual summit. I think, gosh, if we had to do this like that.

2:12a16z:Yes. I think if we guys don't get that, there's a gang signs.

2:16Alex Karp:No, I think we all got the reference.

2:19a16z:Mehdi's in the audience. He doesn't get out much. He's like, huh, what is that?

2:23Alex Karp:This is going to be a great conversation. So I think if we had this conversation 72 hours ago, it would have been very different. But of course, there's been a lot of news. And so I want to get straight to the news and what's happening in the world because Palantir is certainly part of that story. So over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran and Operation Epic Fury. Ayatollah Khomeini is dead. The Middle East is now at war. What do you think the situation means for the future of the West, something you talk a lot about and the future of America?

2:49a16z:Well, first of all, I'm delighted to be on stage with you. And for many of you in this audience, by the way, I've been talking so much, I'm kind of losing my voice. I would have probably canceled on anyone but you. Well, that means a lot. We're glad you're here. I love to cancel, by the way, for those of you, because it's my favorite thing, because actually I'm an introvert. Any excuse to cancel, as Palantirians know it. But yeah, you've been such a force in public and behind the scenes for, I think, helping people in the broadly speaking defense tech or let America wins or things that are good, broadly defined.

3:23a16z:And then we also align on something we could talk about later on, like the importance of not putting our youth in straitjackets because they're divergent neurologically, which is a passion of mine and should be a passion of everyone's since you could define our wonderful and great country as a country where everyone who was divergent in ideology, thought, religion, or quite frankly, neurologically, came to this country to have a better place where they could express their freedom and had the right to, A, express what they thought. And there's a deep link between expressing what you think publicly and privately, First and Fourth Amendment, and being able to think it.

4:03a16z:And if that doesn't work, being able to defend it with the Second Amendment. And last not least, our founders did not structure these rights the way they are in, say, where I live for a lot of my life in Germany, is rights granted to us by other bureaucrats. They're given to us. They're inalienable from a higher being. And I would just say before I get into how the world's changed, we have American warfighters on the battlefield willing to sacrifice their lives, some of whom have sacrificed their lives. They have families and kids. The kids and families don't know if their loved ones are coming home.

4:40a16z:And And we, I know in this room, but we should publicly, privately support them. And people who are not aware or somehow so effing spoiled that they don't realize what these people do for us, we should publicly humiliate them. And everyone has a role in that. And especially those of us who are riding a crest of intergenerational, cultural, intellectual courage, advantage, which it is to be an American nowadays, obviously should not forget the warfighter who are disproportionately from the middle of our country and disproportionately have gotten screwed. And I'm proud, very proud that at Palantir, we get arrows and people, I mean, half the people attacking us.

5:31a16z:It'd be good if they spent two minutes on Wikipedia, at least learning the talking points they're regurgitating. But, you know, there's some legitimate criticisms of any company. But at the end of the day, the fact is the most important thing Palantir is doing that other people in this room are doing and people like you and other people adjacent or ancillary to building more lethal and deadly weapons is to make sure that American warfighters are much more likely to come home. And quite frankly, the people who are trying to harm them know that they won't be coming home. And that's the way you stop people from attacking us, in my opinion.

6:16a16z:And then on the kind of the leading up to what's going on. But I think that there are probably people in this room who are wildly supportive and there are people who aren't. It is hard to deny that America is exerting a deterrent capability that was eviscerated. You can like or not like. That's different than ignoring we now have a deterrent capability that no other country appears to have. And that is for lots of reasons. And obviously, the warfighter, people organized the warfighter, the generals, the leadership, the president. But one advantage that often gets overlooked for reasons that make no sense is warfighting is technology.

7:05a16z:I spent half my life in Germany for familiar reasons, and then I wrote my PhD there. and then the rise of America after World War II, the reason America was able to win World War II were technological advantages. And if you look what happened in Operation Midnight Hammer, what happened in Venezuela, what's so far happening in Iran, you see one society just totally dominating. That's our society. Now, you could get into, I mean, always in fights with my intellectual friends, they're like, but wouldn't it be better to have a law-based system where everyone is equal. Yeah, sure, in theory. But in this world, it's us or China or Russia.

7:48Alex Karp:Yeah.

7:49a16z:And I don't know how you guys feel about those decisions, but I literally believe we're doing the work of a higher purpose by making sure, and not just for America, but for the whole world, that we are the power that actually has the decisive vote. And there is only one way to do that, And that is with military superiority. And when I say military superiority, I don't mean that we're arguing on a PowerPoint. It means, so now you get to what has technology done? Now, again, I think whenever people like me are talking about this, you can't say enough that it's the warfighter and their courage. And I'm not doing that.

8:26a16z:I'm sitting here. And we have Palatirians all over, like I'm talking to them constantly. So they're putting themselves in harm's way. And I am kind of, but not directly. It's mostly all the people who yell at me. And I guess maybe there are some people who want to shoot at me. But in the lifetime of Palantir, there's been the rise of software, which essentially meant your software company that is supplying a steak dinner is obviously parasitic, is not cutting it. Those companies are being eviscerated. The rise of defense tech. And now you have a hybrid software, hardware, AI, where you really need all three.

9:03a16z:Interestingly, from an investment perspective, I would say the last company standing before we all have to salute the overlord of the LLM will be Palantir, but it's mainly -

9:14Alex Karp:We're going to get into that, I promise.

9:15a16z:Mainly because it's the specificity of, and the security and the orchestration. But none of that has to make any sense to anyone in this room. I'll tell you what, it makes a lot of sense to our adversaries right now. How is America doing this? Now, again, it's specialized ways. It's 25, 30 years of experience in fighting. It's meritocracy. The Department of War is the most meritocratic environment. It integrated in Korea before our society did. It is the most popular institution and most revered institution and probably the only institution in America that is actually revered by the American people across every demographic.

9:56a16z:and it's revered by the American people across every demographic precisely because it's been meritocratic. If you were a black American, you got your break in America by going to the military. If you wanted to be treated fairly and you were from a group that you felt that every demographic has somebody who is in the military, whose life was changed and it did something noble and wonderful for America, they also have the experience of coming home and America not sticking up for them. We should change that. Now you get to Silicon Valley. My one message for, and again, I'm without getting in specific people or because I'm like, if Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, meaning primarily Democratic shaped people whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are not going to be.

10:55a16z:almost elite who vote for one party. And you're going to screw the military. If you don't think that's going to lead to nationalization of our technology, you're retarded. And you might be particularly retarded because you have a 160 IQ, but this is where that path is going. Like, you cannot have technologies that simultaneously take away everyone's job and then be perceived. Again, there's a lot of subtlety here behind the curtain. I've been heavily involved in that subtlety. What can be, where it can be deployed? What can be deployed? There's a difference between U.S. military and surveillance.

11:34a16z:And despite what everyone thinks, Palantir is the anti-surveillance company. I know your person online thinks that's not true, but every technical expert does. So I end up in every conversation that I don't want to be in. But the danger for our industry is that America, you get a famous horseshoe effect where there's only one thing people agree on, and that's that this is not paying the bills and people and our industry should be nationalized. And so the societal benefit that is going on in Iran, besides the fact that I think I suspect the Iranian people feel like finally someone's on my side and it wasn't the Berkeley faculty that was supposed to like me.

12:19a16z:It's a big lesson for you. Yeah. But then as America, we, and the people who are prominent in the tech industry, you know, we have to find a way to make sure that we're not just popular in Palo Alto.

12:38Alex Karp:Yeah. I want to get back to something you just said, which is that, you know, it's either us winning or China winning or Russia winning or another country, that it's a zero-sum game. And it feels like the people in this room in Washington really understand that AI is zero-sum, but that Silicon Valley doesn't. Silicon Valley doesn't like to think in terms of zero-sum. They like to think that everything is a positive-sum game. So how would you explain to the people in Silicon Valley who are, again, building the LLMs, you know, building what they would say is a brand new, net new technology that hasn't existed before and therefore it needs to be treated differently.

13:09Alex Karp:What would you say to them about this?

13:10a16z:Well, I mean, first of all, it's, by the way, I just want to push back slightly. They do think it's zero-sum. They think it's zero-sum versus each other. So, like, they absolutely are fighting. There will be, like, it's my own rhetoric, but I happen to think it's true. It's going to be chips, ontology. and I suspect in the end, one, one and a half provider. So they pretend they don't think it's zero sum, but then ask them how they feel about their competitor. So it's very, very, I mean, these people are fighting very, very hard for the dominant position. So like what they don't understand is in the world, it's zero sum.

13:42a16z:But I actually think the primary issue in the Valley is it's going to be zero sum vis-a-vis you when America decides, look, okay, I interact with a lot of political figures. I have a lot of respect. I think in some are, when politicians figure out this is the one winning issue, it is going to be zero sum. It's going to be your money and your company being zero sum nationalized. So that's the part they don't understand. Helping people understand that, you know, either we set the rules or de facto, like I'm much more, I'm much more on America should be strong so that we don't have to worry about the enemies then our enemies are evil kind of thing.

14:25a16z:So I'm not super neocon. It seems to be very hard in this culture as someone who's lived abroad a lot of my life. It's very hard in this culture to explain to people that we're in a competitive environment because things here are so good. They don't understand how different it will be and how much we will change and how much the pressure will be on America, not just legally, but militarily and culturally if we fall behind. And one of the things that, again, it's – so I personally think the better way to get people to change is to, okay, bring people like that to Iowa. Bring them to D.C. and explain to our American political leadership why you make$100 million and why a soldier from Iowa can't explain to his wife he has the best technology.

15:17a16z:and then go across the hall, so let's classically Republican-shaped, then go across the hall and talk to progressive Democrats about how everyone in their constituency is not going to have a job. And then leave and imagine what's going to happen to you. You know, the funny thing about those of us who've spent most of our life abroad, like in Germany, it's a phenomenal culture. We have a much better sense of how fragile this experiment is, America. It could go wrong. And it will go wrong. if all wealth is going to a small number of people and those people do not appear to be on side. Now, that perception is obviously a caricature.

15:56a16z:It is a caricature in the sense this is new technology and you're not going to be able to use the same kind of framework. And you're going to need people who appreciate how it's different. And there are real questions about Fourth Amendment protections, like our right to privacy. What is privacy in a world where you could impute what someone's doing at home through technology? How do you protect our right to have our own thoughts, our own ideas, our own practices at home, our own health records? Those are real issues when the technology can also help you to be healthier, live longer, have a higher economic status, potentially, certainly if you're a vocational worker.

16:34a16z:But so those issues have to be unpacked. And where Silicon Valley is right is you're going to need a forum to talk about that that doesn't pretend, you know, large language models is the same thing as machine learning is the same thing as software is the same thing as a bullet. They're not. Yeah. But but but but but de facto, I very much believe as a critique of the like economic elite, especially in the technical area. There's there's like a to use an economic kind of overly economic philosophical term. They reify, meaning they turn it into a thing. are rights. But those rights, you know, when I was in Germany, I was there and there were, I spent a lot of time, I did a PhD, but I, you know, there are a lot of older Germans and I would spend time with them in the countryside, in the city, of course, they didn't know anybody who was a Nazi in the countryside.

17:37a16z:They're like, we're all Nazis. So I would ask them. But one of the more fascinating conversations is why they became Democrats or not like left, right, but capital. And it was always because it worked. And then the unwinding of it that we don't ask if it unwinds, you know, we will not be protected. And it's just the dialogue we have currently is not acknowledging what's going to happen politically, what is happening politically. The wealth tax is a derivative of this because everyone knows the wealth tax isn't going to help the poor. It's just going to fuck the rich. And that's enough to get it done.

18:14a16z:And if that's happening, just imagine what's going to happen when it's like there's going to be 50 unlikable people with all the money. Anybody here like that? And you guys are doing well.

18:26Alex Karp:No, I want to get back to kind of the conversation about how we ensure that the Department of War continues to lead on AI. Because I think this has been top of mind for everyone in the room for the last 48 hours. Our adversaries are looking at, you know, contracting wars that are playing out in press releases. You know, what is your view on how we can ensure that we win this AI race against the PRC? If you're giving advice to all the founders and CEOs of, you know, the companies.

18:55a16z:Well, the first thing, part of what I'm doing and part of the reason, I mean, besides your charm and importance, part of the reason I want to be here is I want my reputation in the value. You always have reputations. my reputation which I'm not even saying the reputation is true but in my case like I'm viewed as the batshit crazy guy who is often telling you something you don't want to hear and you may not like but is probably right and that's true so yeah and that's why I want you to send this first step we have to they're not understanding the stakes and what I nothing's going to happen until people understand the stakes.

19:35a16z:This will affect you. Now, then the question is, like what Hollywood did is Hollywood got together. The whole rating system was Hollywood realized if we don't do ratings, Washington's going to. And Washington is going to butcher it. And let's even say Washington doesn't want to butcher it, but like it doesn't understand the metier. So the First step is everybody, and I'm already on the phone with people saying, okay, great, I understand your issue, but you realize the wolves are at the gate and they already have tasted blood. Yeah. The second step is we have to find ways where we get together and say, okay, like if you just want to go through the issues, yes, there are, you know, using technologies in the context of eviscerating Fourth Amendment rights in America is something left and right in this country actually don't want.

20:32a16z:It's a caricature to believe that either side wants it. There are people on the, honestly, I'm in private rooms. There are people on the left who don't care about these issues, who pretend to do it in public. But there are people, and there are people on the right who pretend not to care, who do care. Both parties have significant coalitions and the American people care. And it's in our constitution. But then you have to be very granular about what's going to happen on the battlefield. Because there, the two issues Americans care about are their prosperity and their safety. So if the two things that Silicon Valley has to figure out is, how are we going to ethically talk about what's going to happen to our economy?