Agentic AI as a Tool of US Diplomacy?

0:00Today on the AI Daily Brief, the geopolitical stakes of agentic AI. The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI. To join the conversation, follow the Discord link in our show notes.

0:21Hey, hello, friends. Welcome back to another Long Reads episode of the AI Daily Brief. For those of you who are new here, Long Reads episodes come out over the weekend, and they are different than the format of the other shows. In Long Reads episodes, the way that it works is I turn over an article or two usually to an AI version of myself to quote-unquote read them, which is basically just a way for you guys to listen to the source material, and then I myself come back and discuss them. Most times they don't have video, sometimes they do, but in general it's an audio-only experience. I do this as a way to add value by curating articles that I think are making interesting points.

0:56I've received a number of complaints recently about quote-unquote just reading things, and And if these aren't the episodes for you, that's fine. Set your watch, come back on Monday, we'll be doing the normal episodes five days a week. However, for those of you who do like that different perspective, I think today's topic is pretty interesting. This is one of those times where we're going to read two pieces. The first is an op-ed by Mark Purdy that was published in the South China Morning Post called Rise of Autonomous Agentic AI Raises the Geopolitical Stakes. Agentic AI will further level the techno-economic playing field and radically alter opinion shaping and the military contest.

1:31Alright, so let's turn it over to the AI version of me to read the piece and then we'll come back and discuss it. Imagine a world where artificial intelligence, AI, agents could act as personal political advisors, negotiate for governments on foreign policy, or carry out integrated military operations in war zones. These scenarios are increasingly possible with the emergence of agentic AI. Unlike generative AI large-language models, LLMs, that create content, the hallmark of agentic AI is its ability to make decisions and carry out complex actions autonomously, with minimal human supervision. Agentic AI usually consists of teams of AI agents, some with specialized roles, such as gathering information or carrying out tasks, while others act as team leaders or orchestrators of activities.

2:14Agentic AI harnesses the cognitive abilities of LLMs, but combines these with other forms of machine learning and automation to make better decisions and take actions. Another key difference is agentic AI systems are goal-oriented, set to optimize particular objectives, such as maximizing customer satisfaction or minimizing the cost of a particular production process. Although nascent agentic AI is attracting attention from businesses and governments because of its potential to supercharge productivity and efficiency, what has received less attention is its potential to drastically change the dynamics of political rivalry between nations.

2:45In particular, agentic AI is likely to alter the nature of the geopolitical contest across three interrelated spheres. Technoeconomics influence in opinion shaping and the security, intelligence, and military contest. Until recently, the techno-economic sphere has largely been a race between the United States and China for AI supremacy, or at least parity for China. The electrifying entry of DeepSeek, a low-cost, largely open-source model, into the generative AI space in late January caused U.S. technology stocks to tumble and shattered assumptions of American AI supremacy. But the bigger story is the democratization of core AI technologies and their availability to every nation, large or small, rich or poor.

3:23Developing economies will find it much easier to harness agentic AI systems to turbocharge work activities, address the skills gap, and boost productivity. The US may step up export controls on high-end chips and tighten restrictions on foreign AI systems, but bit by bit, the techno-economic playing field is starting to even up. The contest for geopolitical influence, where nations and interest groups joust for control of political narratives or to sway public opinion, is also set to be transformed. While governments and malign actors have long used technology to sway opinion, think old-style radio propaganda, or more recent manipulation of social media, agentic AI opens up unprecedented opportunities.

4:00AI has been used to gather data on citizen views and improve political deliberation. Agentic AI bots could act as personal political whisperers, synthesizing disparate views and data sources to help individuals arrive at an informed fact-based decision. Research has shown AI can be at least as persuasive as humans in changing views on contentious issues such as assault weapon bans and carbon taxes, with AI messages viewed as being more factual and logical, but less angry and more unique than those from humans. Equally, however, agentic AI models could be used by malign actors to micro-target those susceptible to false narratives or quickly scale up misinformation in the mass media.

4:36Agentic AI teams could be tasked with maximizing the clickability of false content or orchestrating distraction campaigns to defeat certain political goals or movements. Eleanor Fournier Toomes, head of Anticipatory Action and Innovation at the UN University Center for Policy Research, believes agentic AI may help overcome some challenges in political deliberation, such as enabling deliberation across much larger groups, overcoming linguistic barriers, and leading participants to clear outcomes. But it could also lead to ethical gray zones, such as by incorrectly summarizing views or polluting the process with inappropriate or harmful ideas or content.

5:10Finally, agentic AI opens up a vista of radically different competition and cooperation in the diplomatic, intelligence, and military domains. AI has displayed its ability to engage in diplomatic games and maneuvering, with the model Cicero scoring twice as high as human players in the board game diplomacy. Agentic AI is also attracting interest from military planners, especially in light of its enhanced contextual awareness and ability to juggle multiple fields of operation and orchestrate commands. Mark Williams, a cognitive science professor at Loughborough University, said the U.S. military views agentic AI as the future of military combat and is funding work to ascertain how AI can complement and extend human expertise in areas such as decision-making and combat.

5:49This can help to minimize the risks associated with human judgment and reduce the impact of stress on combat performance. But agentic AI also raises serious ethical issues, such as the extent to which such systems can be trusted and the allowance made for human oversight and control. Many questions remain unanswered. How will agentic AI alter the balance of geopolitical power? Will the net effect be socially beneficial or disruptive? Much will depend on factors such as the speed of agentic AI development and adoption in the major economic blocks of the US, Europe, and China. But a key factor will be the differing international approaches to AI regulation.

6:23As the recent AI Action Summit in Paris showed, cracks are emerging among Western nations, with the European Union favoring an AI safety approach and the US decrying perceived overregulation in Europe. With agentic AI escalating both risks and opportunities for governments and businesses, the world of geopolitics is set to enter a new and more unpredictable phase. Today's episode is brought to you by Vanta. Trust isn't just earned, it's demanded. Whether you're a startup founder navigating your first audit or a seasoned security professional scaling your GRC program, proving your commitment to security has never been more critical or more complex.

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9:11Basically, to the extent that we deputize autonomous agents to do more things for us, they might also have more power to shape our opinions on things. A lot of the author's time is spent on influence and opinion shaping, with the main thesis seeming to be that agents up the stakes even more than just regular AI. More broadly, even if you don't agree with any of the specifics of his opinion, the author's point is that agents are raising the stakes. And with that context, let's move over to our second piece, this one by James Cooper and K. Shep-Compela, called Why AI Should Be a Hallmark of U.S.

9:44Foreign Assistance. Once again, turning it over to the AI version of myself. The future of U.S. global leadership hinges on more than military might or economic dominance. It is also the battle for the hearts and minds of people across the world. In short, soft power matters. With U.S. foreign aid funding Frozen and Secretary of State Marco Rubio now acting as administrator of USAID, Washington is reassessing its role on the world stage. The outcome is likely to reshape the very foundation of U.S. foreign assistance. We have a bipartisan and urgent recommendation for policymakers in the beltway.

10:17Artificial intelligence must become a pillar of U.S. foreign assistance. AI is transforming industries, education, commerce, and security worldwide. But expertise in AI remains concentrated in the hands of a few rich states, leaving developing countries at a disadvantage. The U.S. has the opportunity and the strategic imperative to bridge this gap. AI can assist in disaster preparedness, streamline humanitarian responses, and also help governments predict and mitigate risks. It can boost economic growth, improve public security, and enhance governance. AI can be a force multiplier, offering the best return on investment for U.S.

10:51global engagement. The U.S. is well-positioned to lead in AI-driven foreign assistance. Without transferring sensitive technology, Washington can help allies craft AI regulations, training their government officials, and sharing best practices for integrating AI into public administration. The U.S. government has already deployed AI in countless ways, from optimizing supply chains to detecting fraud. These lessons can be invaluable to partner countries seeking to modernize citizen services. The benefits are not just external. AI can also enhance the efficiency of U.S. foreign aid itself, automating internal processes, identifying wasteful spending, and improving congressional oversight.

11:26Beyond governance and development, AI is a strategic asset in the global competition for influence. The U.S. AI industry, projected to make trillions in investments before the end of the decade, thrives on network effects. The more users worldwide adopt American platforms, the stronger those platforms become. By expanding the adoption of its AI abroad, the U.S. can also shape global AI standards and regulations. Soft power remains the United States' not-so-secret weapon. A 2023 Gallup survey found the U.S. still enjoys a soft power edge over the People's Republic of China in 81 countries. But that edge may be eroding.

12:02Hollywood, once a dominant force in cultural diplomacy, has seen its influence wane. While seven of the top ten Chinese box office hits in 2012 were Hollywood productions, by 2023, not a single U.S. film made the cut. In this shifting landscape, the remaining U.S. cultural ambassadors are its universities and technology giants. Silicon Valley, home to Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, still captivates global imaginations. Partnering with these companies to train young professionals abroad can help cement U.S. influence for decades to come. AI is more than just a tool. It is a purveyor of values.

12:34Algorithms shape perceptions, beliefs, decisions, and even moral frameworks. TikTok, the crown jewel of China's soft power, influences global audiences through subtle algorithmic nudges. But AI goes further. It does not just expose users to content. It actively generates answers to their questions. The United States must ensure that its AI technologies, built on principles of transparency, accountability, and innovation, dominate the global market. If Washington fails to act, the AI leadership crown could pass to Beijing. China understands the strategic importance of AI tools and policies. Over the past decade, Beijing has poured more than$1 trillion into the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its infrastructure and digital footprint across 150 countries.

13:15AI is now embedded within the initiative's ecosystem, backed by China's state-controlled technology giants. While China excels in hardware, the U.S. continues to dominate software. Until recently, Beijing's AI efforts were largely domestic, with exceptions like TikTok. But the launch of DeepSeq, China's large-scale AI model, signals a quantum shift. India, traditionally wary of Chinese apps, has expressed interest in DeepSeq. If the U.S. does not assert its AI leadership abroad, China will fill the void. Rubio has outlined a clear litmus test for U.S. foreign aid. It must make the U.S. safer, stronger, and more prosperous.

13:49AI checks all three boxes. It enhances global stability, fuels economic growth, and ensures that the United States sets the digital rules of engagement for the 21st century. In a world increasingly shaped by AI, the United States must make it the cornerstone of its foreign assistance. AI is the key to winning friends and influencing countries in the 21st century. All right, back once again here. Again, I think what's interesting to me about this is hold aside the specifics of the argument. Both of these pieces are saying that AI is a key player in the geopolitical contest and the changing geopolitical environment.

14:23Now, the two points that I think are interesting about this piece specifically are, one, the idea of AI as a tool for soft power, and two, the idea of AI as infrastructure for a new era of American geopolitical engagement in general. Taking those in reverse order, obviously we're in a big moment of transition when it comes to America's relationship with the world. One where effectively we are withdrawing from our historical power commitments and basically saying to the rest of the world, you figure it out. It's obviously way beyond the scope of this show to dig into whether that's a good or bad idea or the various perspectives around that question.

14:58But what is undeniable is that it's in the process of happening. Now, of course, it's not like the US is going to become completely isolationist overnight and not have any engagement with the world. And so it's interesting to me that AI is presented here effectively as a way to make whatever continued engagement that we have with the world work better. The second part on the idea of AI as soft power is also particularly interesting, both in ways that they articulate in this piece, but also in a way that's not articulated as much here. The way that's articulated is, of course, AI as a way to spread ideas and values.

15:30The TLDR on this is that in a world where a huge amount of our interaction with information is mediated by AI, the particular biases and perceptions and stances and what's available in that AI is going to have an impact on how people see things. The most obvious recent example of this is the fact that DeepSeek, popular as it is, will not talk to you about Tiananmen Square. It is clearly coming out of a Chinese context where it has to toe the line of the CCP. I think Americans like to believe that our particular approach to that sort of information is not as censored as the Chinese government's version, but even without censorship, values do get communicated and embedded in these tools.

16:07And so it is a consideration, which AI people use will shape how they see the world. The part that's not discussed as much here, but which I still think is really important, is the idea of AI as an equalizing economic force around the world. The global economy is going to be completely remade in a variety of ways by the emergence of artificial intelligence. One of the impacts of that could be a different type of talent distribution where expensive labor in the US, specifically expensive knowledge work, has much cheaper equivalents outside who have come up to a level of similar capability thanks to AI.

16:41Viewing that explicitly as a tool of foreign policy or just geopolitical positioning in general is something I think really interesting to consider. Now, clearly we are at the very beginning of this type of conversation, but it's one which is salient and pertinent right now and one that I'm excited to see people talk more about. For now, though, that is going to do it for today's AI Daily Brief, long reads edition. Appreciate you listening as always. And until next time, peace.