RIP Vibe Coding. Feb 2025-Oct 2025.

3 Nov 2025 · 41 min

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Podcast Notes: The AI Daily Brief - Episode: RIP Vibe Coding. Feb 2025-Oct 2025

Overview In this episode of *The AI Daily Brief*, host NLW is joined by Sean "Swyx" Wang, a developer and writer, to discuss the evolution and current state of AI coding, particularly the end of "vibe coding." They explore the implications of coding in 2025, the emergence of “Agent Labs,” and insights from the upcoming AI Engineer Code Summit in New York.

Key Themes

  1. The End of Vibe Coding
  2. Definition of Vibe Coding:
  3. A method of coding focused on rapid iterations and low barriers for non-developers.
  4. Seen as superficial, leading to incomplete applications.
  • Current Sentiment Among Developers:
  • Developers are feeling discomfort with vibe coding as it leads to poor handoffs and maintenance issues.
  • Concerns about a lack of depth in coding practices, causing sloppiness in software development.
  • Shift Needed:
  • Developers advocate for a move toward more responsible coding practices to avoid pitfalls associated with vibe coding.
  1. Agent Labs vs. Model Labs
  2. Definitions:
  3. Agent Labs: Focus on building applications directly for users, translating models into usable products.
  4. Model Labs: Concentrate on developing models with less immediate application focus.
  • Current Landscape:
  • A growing trend where companies are prioritizing the development of applications (Agent Labs) over foundational models (Model Labs).
  • This shift is reshaping how AI companies are built and how they interact with users.
  1. Upcoming AI Engineer Code Summit
  2. Event Focus: Highlighting AI coding, with dedicated sessions for enterprise and individual contributors.
  3. Importance of Context:
  4. Conversations at the summit will focus on key areas like memory, planning, and context engineering.
  • Notable Speakers:
  • The summit will feature industry leaders and experts sharing insights on how organizations can adapt to AI advancements.
  1. The Future of Coding and AI
  2. Code AGI Concept:
  3. Swyx proposes that “code AGI” could deliver 80% of the value of full AGI in a fraction of the time, emphasizing the potential of coding in realizing AI’s capabilities.
  • Sync vs. Async Development:
  • Discussion on the importance of synchronous coding for complex problem-solving while leveraging asynchronous tools for productivity.
  • Emerging Terminologies:
  • New terms are necessary to address the gaps between amateur and professional coding practices, particularly in the context of democratized technology like AI.

Key Takeaways

  • Emerging Challenges:
  • As coding becomes more accessible via AI tools, there’s a growing need to establish standards and definitions to maintain quality and security in software development.
  • Organizational Change:
  • Companies must think strategically about integrating AI tools and practices into their workflows, necessitating a potential reorganization to optimize for AI capabilities.
  • Impact on Enterprises:
  • The rise of Agent Labs may influence procurement processes, requiring enterprises to rethink their relationships with model providers and the types of products they adopt.

Conclusion The podcast episode effectively captures the shifting dynamics in AI coding and highlights the need for a more structured approach as developers navigate the challenges of integrating new technologies. The insights shared by Swyx and NLW offer a glimpse into the future of coding, emphasizing the importance of balancing innovation with best practices.

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Transcript

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0:00This podcast is sponsored by Google. Hey, folks, I'm Ammar, product and design lead at Google DeepMind. We just launched a revamped vibe coding experience in AI Studio that lets you mix and match AI capabilities to turn your ideas into reality faster than ever. Just describe your app and Gemini will automatically wire up the right models and APIs for you. And if you need a spark, hit I'm feeling lucky and we'll help you get started. Head to ai.studio slash build to create your first app. Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief. This week, as I am out traveling for my anniversary, we are going to have a combination of regular shows as well as some different formats that we don't normally get to do.

0:39And one of those is an interview with the man, the myth, the legend, Sean Wang, better known as Swix. The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.

0:54All right, friends, quick announcements before we dive in. First of all, thank you to today's sponsors, Google Gemini, Blitzy, Robots and Pencils, and super intelligent. To get an ad-free version of the show, go to patreon.com slash ai daily brief. And if you are interested in sponsoring the show, shoot us a note at sponsors at ai daily brief.ai. Also, another quick reminder of our ROI benchmarking study. It's live at roisurvey.ai. Please take a minute to add a couple of use cases. I'd so appreciate it. And there's a bunch of goodies in there for people who help. Now, you might have heard me talk about SWIX on here, or maybe you've heard his podcast late in space or his events, the AI engineer summit and AI Engineer World's Fair.

1:29And even though many of us who are creators or listeners of this show aren't technical or aren't developers ourselves outside of vibe coding, I think it's a really valuable thing to spend our time understanding what developers are talking about. As I discussed with Sean in this show, it's a little bit like previewing the future. And so what we do in this conversation is look at the big themes that he is thinking about and the big conversations shaping that sector of the industry, and also how he's turning those into key themes for the AI Engineer Code Summit, which is coming up in New York. Now, for those of you who will be at the AI Engineer Code Summit, I will be speaking there and I'm very excited.

2:02But without any further ado, let's get into this conversation and bring SWIX once again back to the AI Daily Brief. All right, Sean slash SWIX, better known as SWIX. How are you doing, man? Welcome back to the show. I'm doing great. Thank you for having me again. Yeah, it's always great to check in with you. As I was just saying, I think the reason that I'm always pointing people to you and the set of content that you're around is, I think, especially for folks who are outside of the kind of AI engineering conversation, understanding what the builders are talking about is kind of like living in the future a little bit.

2:34So what I wanted to do today is dig into maybe some of those conversations that are driving the AI engineering community. And the specific context that I think is interesting is you have a big event coming up in just about a month, a little less than a month now, where obviously you have to think about and crystallize those things into content. So maybe let's kick off by just, if you want to tell us a little bit about the Code Summit and how you think about this event relative to the others that you do. Yeah, and I should also flag that you're speaking, which I'm very excited about. Yes, and I can't wait to be back with you.

3:05So I've been organizing AI Engineer Summits for three years, and usually they are kind of generalist. They focus on just whoever are the best speakers I can get and the general state of AI. And I think that now the meta is kind of shifting towards focus and concentration on a certain topic, because when we have as many sort of applicants as we have, because it's like a, you know, you have to apply to get into this conference, we get to pick. And like the best vibes are when everyone you run into is all concentrated on the same theme, like you gather for a certain topic. And even like changing the name and like focusing on a certain theme changes the entire vibe of the whole thing, which is very cool, very, very, very fun.

3:53It is something I realized as a meetup organizer. So we're doing, this is our first ever summit entirely focused on AI coding. And we're doing enterprise and individual contributor days as well. But I think like the focus is on like why coding has emerged as something that has particular product market fit and especially emerged this year. And it seems weird for me to say this as someone who's had a whole career in developer tools and kind of always focused on AI coding. We've never done this before. But I think this is the year, like, you know, most people don't even remember that Cloud Code only emerged in March this year and is now larger than, you know, $600 million business.

4:37And it was like after our last summit in New York when you were emceeing. So like a lot has changed. Cognition and Cursor have emerged as very large startups. I can't even call them startups anymore. It's like what we've been calling is agent labs that are starting to rival the model labs in terms of market pool, valuation, employees, what have you. And I think it's one of the most interesting stories of the year. Yeah, I mean, what's fascinating about this is it is, I don't think anyone would disagree that this is, if not the dominant or most important AI theme of the year, it's certainly got to be among the top two, you know?

5:19And it was not on the radar as the thing that was going to drive all conversations. You know, when everyone was doing their end of year content, you know, their end of 2024 into 2025 content predictions, no one, at least anyone that I saw was like, this is the year of coding. This is the year of AI coding, AI coding agents. It was the AI, the year of AI agents broadly, Right. That was sort of like the money's on bet for what happened. The vibe coding only Carpathy said that tweet in February. Right. It's it's it feels like a million years ago because of the inevitability. But it really, you know, we are kind of just catching up with ourselves in some ways.

5:54A little bit. And I actually also, you know, have a spicy thing because generally I agree with Andre and everything. And most people do. But I think the one thing that is happening right now is that the software engineers are feeling very uncomfortable. with vibe coding. And I think, you know, you talk about how we are six months ahead of the main street. Vibe coding, you know, I declared the end of vibe coding being cool this month. And I think a lot of what we're meaning to discuss at AIE Code Summit is like, what's after vibe coding? Like, how can we avoid the slop and like build software that we don't hate?

6:32Don't get stuck in rabbit holes that the agents might go down sometimes. and so it's going to take work from the model labs which we which we have represented it's going to take work from the agents and it's going to take work from the the customers which we also you know want to hear from so i i think it's uh it's interesting because like there's new terms and people are putting super popular but i think it also might need to evolve in some way yeah well so so let's actually try to unpack this a little bit because this is this is sort of to me this was like okay declaration like sean's now in uh in spicy mode for what what's coming with this event, right?

7:07I think the tweet was RIP vibe coding 2025 to 2025 or something like that, like perfectly constructed tweet. But so let's talk about what, where the, where the discomfort is coming from and maybe sort of like what the difference between what someone who's sort of excited about this term still is thinking about when they see it versus what this group of engineers who are getting more uncomfortable with when they, when they see that term, what they're kind of perceiving. Yeah. I think the issue comes with like every one of us, every software engineer is very happy that people who are non-technical can get to somewhere productive without engineers engineers are expensive they're uh hard to do work with they're divas you know whatever like just just you know um they don't need to help make your website your personal website when lovable and bold exist and i think that nobody's nobody has any issue with that.

7:59I think it comes to a head when you start to say like, oh, I vibe coded this. Like, come on, it only took me like an hour. Now here, here, take it. And I expect the full thing by Friday. And like, well, you know, you haven't dealt with any of the hard stuff. You've only painted the sort of superficial picture and you confuse that for the full working app. That's one issue. That is the sort of non-technical to technical handoff that is not being discussed, negotiated. In fact, what is happening is the infralayers are specializing for the non-technical people so that the sort of vibe coders, the non-technical people, are basically building a completely different stack than the technical ones.

8:44And so when you hand it off, you have to completely rebuild because it doesn't use any of the same tech. I mean, it's somewhat exaggerating. I think the best crossover tech right now is Superbase, which is why Superbase is doing so well. They've basically quadrupled valuation this year. But there's a lot of experimentation in just that front. Then there's also the inter-software engineer fights, where software engineers are also vibro-coding, of course, but some of them are being a lot more sloppy than others. And the people who care about software, care about security, care about maintenance, care about honestly just like getting things right or understanding your code so that you don't get into trouble because LLMs just do run into rabbit holes and sometimes to really get them out you have to understand the code you can't just sort of wash your hands off it or just flow based on vibes so when that stuff happens and people are irresponsible then they also tend to like leave PRs to other people have to clean up so you know I think like people just want something better A lot of people are talking about spectrum and development as a way forward, which is something that Amazon is pushing a lot, as well as a number of other people.

9:58Like my top speaker from World's Fair was Sean Grove from OpenAI, who was basically pitching spectrum and development and model alignment specs. So like, I think there's a lot of action around this. The term that has to sort of replace or complement VibeCoding hasn't emerged yet, but I can definitely feel it in the air. It's literally present in every conversation I have. Everyone's sick and tired of iPod coding. Yeah. So it's super interesting. A couple of things. One, there's this classic pattern with change, technology change, where we forget temporarily that the paradigm shift isn't going to be from a set of problems to an era of no problems.

10:42It's trading one set of problems for another, which hopefully it's a good trade-off. It's a sufficiently good trade-off that that new set of problems we'd rather deal with because of the gains that come from the switch, right? And I think that that second part of the conversation that you were just mentioning, sort of the intra-engineer conversation, is a lot about that. It's like, okay, well, now we have to reconcile with all of the stuff that comes along with if we can do XYZ much faster or automated or with background agents, it creates this new set of problems and we are still going to have to deal with those.

11:14We're going to have to re-architect our systems and sort of, you know, the way that we work to accommodate that. And I think that that's a very natural process of like figuring that out and actually sort of rationalizing what it looks like to use these systems well, even as the technology is changing. And I want to come back and kind of talk about maybe the sync async spectrums and a couple other things that you've talked about as it relates to kind of where these things are. The first one, you know, I was thinking about this. We really don't, we don't have a word for the difference between sort of professional and amateur in the context of a democratizing technology, right?

11:51Like, you know, if you think about like, I was trying to trying to make the proxy of like content creation with social media, right? TikTok and CapCut come along and everyone can make videos. There's clearly a difference between amateur videos and Christopher Nolan, and no one would not acknowledge that. And then in the middle, it gets blurry, of course. And there's some people who may not be as technically good, but the things that they produce, people like more. And, you know, but there's still like, you know, the terms that we have are all dumb, right? Creator, influencer, like they just kind of, they don't actually convey this gap.

12:20And I think it's actually, one, I think it's completely unsurprising to me that coding is sort of figuring this out first in the context of AI. You know, AI becomes this mass democratization technology, but there is still a difference between, to your point, like my sick terminal-based, you know, AI Daily Brief website that I use Lovable to maintain and like an actual product that goes out and, you know, an enterprise is not going to freak out on because it's got, you know, kind of its security set up. You know, we just don't have good terminology for that, which I think is a challenge. Because to your point, I don't think anyone is actually in disagreement that these things are different things.

12:54Yeah, I think to some extent, it is our job to figure it out. Like, this is not an unsolvable problem. And so I want to put people at ease here in terms of, like, you know, keep doing what you're doing, keep up with the bolts and lovables and bi-building in general, I think it is the job of the engineers to try to figure out that transition path because we haven't worked it out yet. You know, I'm gathering people and trying to focus people's energies on this because clearly when a new technology emerges and it is somewhat disruptive to the old technology, people who are tied to the old technology complain, which is exactly what they're doing here, by the way.

13:31But also the goal is not to reject the new technology, it's to embrace it and figure out how to reshape everything else in order to accommodate it. So I think like there's more synergy here than like people fear when they first hear about this stuff. Yeah, I wonder if there's, I mean, you know, I don't know if it's an interim solution or not, but it feels like there's a role or at least a function around sort of translating. You know, if you've got all, especially if you think inside an organization or a startup, you've got all these folks who are now able to speak with code, right? Instead of talking about features they want, they can just, you know, mock them up, which is what we do, what every company I know at this does.

14:09you're talking about sort of the challenge of translation. It feels like that's a thing that someone could get really good at, you know, both helping people sort of, you know, build things in the right way in the beginning. But anyways, there's lots of developments that I think are going to come on that front. Okay. So the next thing I wanted to talk about, which is sort of, you know, builds off of this a little bit is what this landscape of AI and agentic coding platforms, the full breadth of it now, because part of the challenge and why sort of vibe coding RIP, I think is that like, if you go back six months ago, it's like, who's going to win bolt or lovable.

14:41It's literally that. And then Claude code comes and it's like, okay, now, you know, as opposed to now people, people with a passing glance, see lovable bolt, Claude code code, code X, CLI, uh, cognition factory. And it is sort of this, you know, this broad spectrum. And, and you actually wrote about this a little bit when, when you sort of shared that you were joining cognition, huge congrats, by the way. I think that's, by the way, for my money, maybe the most useful. I'm making a career switch blog post that I've ever seen. Usually that's a very, very sort of self-indulgent thing. It's just like, here's my trajectory.

15:16That was like kind of packed with interesting observations. And one of them that you talked about is the sync-async spectrum. I would love, without asking you to kind of boil the ocean, share kind of roughly how you see the topography of these categories of coding tools emerging right now. Yeah, you're making me think about other conversations I've had since that publication. But yeah, so totally. I think there are a number of charts that people have made. And, you know, basically coding agents are enormously popular. Now we're just figuring out what the ideal interfaces for them are, right? So probably it initially started with GitHub Copilot, which is just spicy autocomplete, as they say.

16:02Devin launched like two years ago with sort of the web app sort of interface. Code interpreter is also in the mix somewhere in there where, you know, you can chat and like it starts to generate code and run and execute that code. I would say then in Cursor, obviously, with Composer and all the other Cursor agent stuff that they're launching. So I think now the form factors are you have the IDE or VS Code extension. You have the web app. You have Slack or whatever your team collaboration thing is. You might also want to put linear in there. And then finally, you have the terminal, which is obviously the newest that emerged on the scene this year with Cloud Code.

16:44So basically, you just need universal handoff among everything. And I think that's the goal. Everything I've described, all the surface areas, all the companies pretty much have all of them now, I think, with Cloud Code going to the web and Codex coming to the VS Code extension. Everyone's got everything. And I think that the handoff is not worked out yet. So Cloud Code is the first one to work out the hackiest possible version, which is Cloud Code Teleport, where you can just sort of dump the JSON of the chat and continue with it locally, because they're the same instance, same Cloud Code on both sides.

17:20But I think there may be some more evolutions from there, because that's not naturally how we transfer context between engineers working differently. And so in my post, I started talking about the sick-facing spectrum and you kind of need to own that, which is why I was very impressed with Cognition buying Windsurf when Windsurf was out for grabs. Because, well, here's the number two IDE. It's for cheap because a month ago it was$3 billion. Now it's worth less. The rumor is$300. I actually haven't even confirmed that number. But yeah, I mean, like, you know, at some point it's worth buying. And actually, you know, you start to have a leg up in that sort of sync side of the spectrum while async is having extreme product market fit, right?

18:02Like I talked a little bit about the numbers in the Cognition blog post as well. So like, I think that's good. I think actually sync async might be a bad framing, which is really weird for me. Because one thing that's happening now that you're going to see with Cursor 2.0 today and also what Cognition is launching is that the async side is moving faster rather than slower. Because I think there's been a perverse incentive to measure all these coding agents based on the number of hours worked. And where else do we do that? Well, lawyers and everything that we hate because you're just incentivizing them to take more time, which is horrible.

18:41No one actually wants that. We're just using that as a poor proxy for what difficulty of work you're actually doing. So everyone's working on faster agents, I think, which is good for users, ultimately, because that's what we want in practice. The async side is becoming more synced. And then the sync side is changing in terms of the mindset. Why do you want synchronous code? Well, the actual answer is because not everything can be vibe-coded. like the anti-vibe code is to turn your brain on instead of off and use ai to augment your skills and thinking rather than to replace it and with scrolling twitter right so the sync mode is for the deepest focused and hardest problems where you need the centaur combination of human and ai and so that's that's what i posted in the the recent thing we shipped on sweetgrap where we have the uh sort of async value of productivity right like either you're super productive because you're in flow and you're focused and you're working on hard problems.

19:42If agents take longer, then you start to switch away and change context and lose context. And then later on, when you start to get more productive again, because you're able to employ parallel async background agents on stuff that is really commodity and you can trust the elements to nail it.

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22:04What this reflects to me is the richness of the, just the topic of AI coding is why, why you can do an entire summit about the variety of conversations going on here. What are some of the other conversations that you're trying to bring in, you know, that have been maybe part of, part of previous summits that you've done, you know, evals, memory, context, like sort of what, you know, rag, like what, what are, what are some of the other big kind of big hitters that are going to be you think key parts of the conversation heading into this year's event yeah i think memory and planning are always going to be huge context engineering is obviously a huge theme this year and we have the the guy who one of the three people that coined context engineering uh speaking dex dex is a fantastic speaker one of the top speakers at world's fair and i think like then the other part is honestly just like organizational transitions which actually uniquely as a podcast you will cover, which is rare, which is more of a leadership topic, right?

22:59Like, sure, like the AI exists, but like, how do you like move an existing large organization to take advantage of it, to upskill your team and maybe potentially reorg in order to capture the opportunities, right? Like, I think like this is one of those things where like for the first time I'm able to feature people from like Goldman Sachs and McKinsey and some of the top enterprises in the world. Northwestern Mutual, and Bloomberg's coming back this year. There's just a lot of very interesting, especially East Coast stories that I wanted to feature because a lot of tech is very West Coast centric, but there's a lot of good stuff happening in enterprises too.

23:41Yeah, on the organizational change piece, one of the things that I think is really interesting about, and I think to me was reflective of just how dominant the AI coding theme has been this year is when we started, you know, when we were kind of first doing some of these agent audits around the beginning of the year, it was very often the case that the engineering departments were surprisingly some of the holdouts. They were the sort of most intransigent around wanting to adopt new systems. And while I don't, while my perception is not that that's gone away entirely, it does feel like there has been a major shift over the course of the year, perhaps as the tools have gotten better, as the models have gotten better, as, you know, maybe our understanding of, you know, how to integrate these systems has gotten better.

24:26Certainly not universal, but we see less and less, you know, just, you know, over my dead body kind of engineering departments when it comes to some of these transitions. Yeah, totally. And I think like there's a lot of knowledge sharing in this kind of stuff, but it's also not fully well mapped out. And honestly, I'm waiting to hear from you and the rest of the speakers on the leadership day to map out the state of affairs and what is working, what is not among the enterprises that you talk to. So speaking of that, one term, basically going back to what you were saying about vibe coding, it almost feels like part of the challenge is that this same word or same phrase means different things to different people, right?

25:07I think that context engineering is going to be a term that has a similar bifurcation or potential bifurcation in the year. Because context engineering is a very sort of like technical set of questions for engineers who are thinking about how to design systems that better interact with context. But it is also now a leadership or sort of a change mindset as people like basically sort of akin to prompt engineering for individuals where organizations are thinking about context engineering as how do we sort of organize our data, broadly speaking, to be ready to be used by these systems? How do I think as I am prompting individually as a sort of, you know, a frontline worker in a company?

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25:51How am I making sure that I'm giving it enough work context? And it's not that that's obviously a totally separate thing, but, you know, the one is not thinking about different ways for kind of technical methods for the LLM to access different information. It's more of a mindset shift, getting away from just strictly prompt engineering to making sure that your your quad skills are updated with all the things that they need. And I wouldn't be surprised if we see, again, there's sort of like the enterprise non-technical conversation around context engineering, which is going to be sort of like a very broad use of the term context and a very broad use of the term engineering, as opposed to maybe the more technical conversation.

26:29Cool. I don't have a view on that yet. There's something you're picking up better than me. So I'm curious to learn more. Yeah, yeah. It's a prediction, not a fait accompli. So the last couple of things I wanted to ask you about, move back to the blog post that I was mentioning, the Devins and the details. Two things that I think really stood out to me. One was your kind of very simple 80-20 sort of notion of code AGI. I'd love to just sort of like hear about that a little bit. So the quote is, I'll quote you so you don't have to quote yourself. But the line was, the central realization I had was this.

27:06Code AGI will be achieved in 20 % of the time of full AGI and capture 80 % of the value of AGI. So, Tuck, I would love to hear just a little bit about kind of how you think about that. I think it will resonate even with my non-technical audience just based on how much coding has shaped what we've all done with AI this year, despite not being coders. Yeah. Well, I mean, so I would say that there's a little bit of self-cringe when I really boiled it down, because obviously the world is never that simple. But you have to think about the highest order bit. And you have to think about concentrating your bets instead of spreading them out when it comes to power laws.

27:48And so 80-20 Pareto principle framing is the way that I do it. But okay, so and then the other irony is code AGI is a, I don't know what's the word for like self-contradiction because if it's general, it should be general. It shouldn't be. Right, right, right. But like, you know, all that aside, I think that the general sentiment is what I was trying to reflect, which is literally value catcher versus timelines. And I think those are the right two axes to really think about in terms of where to spend your time and where to invest maybe, which are the same thing. You're investing your time, you're investing your money.

28:23And so I think like one, I think the obvious statements are all listed in there, which is how like code is like a verifiable domain. It's much faster. The people working on the code are also the people like, you know, consuming the models. So like there's just like a general virtuous cycle that is obvious in there and like basically doesn't need any more elaboration. I think the interesting thing comparatively here is also the value side instead of just the timelines, which is obviously happening now a little bit, but like you have to really, and for me to join a company that's worth 10 billion, you know, like what's the upside, like 20?

28:58Like, no, like it has to be a hundred. And so I think like you have to really think through like, is that even on the cards? And I think, yeah, probably like, and that's mostly because of the flexibility of code. I think that the best way to communicate this is with like how many people and how many times people have observed that you can use cloud code to do non-coding tasks, right? Because it does generalize. It has the sandbox of pools. We used to, you know, in the chatbot era, only do, you know, embeddings retrieval, right? But now we have like agentic search and that basically requires a document library and all the things that people talk about in the, you know, the modernized LLMOS stack.

29:39For people who are interested in this, check out Jerry Liu's talk from the 2025 Oldsphere, and he talks a little bit about the emerging stack here. And so I think that is probably the case where the things that we learn in coding agents basically generalize, and actually the people who work on coding agents first will find it faster because they already have. It's super obvious to me that they've already seen it. In some ways, Cloud Code is a new foundation for Cloud itself. When people talk about the Cloud platform or people talk about like Cloud for Finance or Excel, which was launched this week.

30:17It's all based on a foundation that was built with Cloud Code. So it's funny because I'm not even really putting my neck out on this thesis. I'm just calling it out as something that's already happening. Yeah, no, it's super interesting. Like I said, I think it's a fascinating way to look at things. And the last thing that I wanted to ask you about is, so I've said a number of times on the show, probably enough to start to annoy people, that I think two dominant themes heading into next year, at least for sort of like the business, the AI at work side of things. One is, I actually think is context engineering and just thinking broadly about what's the set of information that we need to provide, you know, whatever AI we're using for it to do better than just whatever it sort of can do out of the box.

31:00I think that's going to be a massive theme. And I think that part of why it's going to be a big theme is that But by making it a theme, it gives organizations the license to do unfun, very difficult things like big data projects that were less sexy than... Coming into this year is like, what demonstration agent can I build? I think going into next year, it's going to be more like, how do I get this entire house in order? And there's going to be sort of wind at people's backs for that. So that's one. I think the other very obvious one is ROI and performance. I think it's easier said than done, but I think there's going to be a lot, a lot, a lot of discussion around how these AI and agentic systems are actually sort of impacting the world of work, be it time savings, cost savings, new capabilities unlocked.

31:45I think that's going to be a major exploration. The third, which I'm just starting to sniff, and so I'm not ready to sort of call it on that same level, is I think that I see this conversation starting around the product era of AI and the emphasis on products in which AI is situated being the things that people are releasing and focusing on, as opposed to the conversation just purely being, you know, how does this model compare to the one that was 0.5 before it? And you had, it was not this, this wasn't the conversation, but one of the things that you talked about was the sort of difference between agent labs and model labs.

32:23And I love that just that if you want to share that framework? Because I think it might have a stake in that larger conversation as well. Yeah. Okay. There's a lot in there. So first of all, product era is a broader thesis than ancient lab. I think product era is basically, in VC terminology, is the application layer winning, right? And definitely two years ago, application layer was very unsexy. People made fun of it. You're just writing GPT wrappers. Now they're like$30 billion companies and 50X sales and Harvey and Cursor and all these guys are doing super well. A bridge, you know, open evidence, what have you.

33:01So I think, like, yeah, the product era has definitely happened. But the specific type of products that is doing super well is agents. So, like, that's how I make that transition. I think, like, as a product person, sometimes you can overthink it. And if you really just look at, like, what the heck people are actually having PMF with, it's just agents. like Replit spent like two years like working on AI products and got nowhere and then they built an agent and then suddenly they're like at$300 million revenue. So it's like kind of obvious if you just take it literally anywhere like you know like Notion like getting series of agents is very good for Notion all that stuff.

33:42Okay the agent lab is a thesis that isn't quite fully worked out yet. But it's really just the case for building AI companies in a different way than has been in the past. Obviously, I love coining things that are two words. And I love the way that people start to organically adopt it, which is why I know this terminology is working because now people are saying it without even me being present in the room. The agent lab thesis, I'm going to pull up this guy's coverage of my post, which is really helpful. It's basically like people shipping products first to their model first, right? A lot of AI companies in the past, they would just basically say, they'll raise a bunch of money, announce they have a bunch of money, announce they have a bunch of cracked researchers, they buy a bunch of GPUs, and then you don't hear from them for six months or a year.

34:36And then they come out with like, oh, here's our model. You can't try it, but like, here's some interesting updates from our model. That's exactly, by the way. I mean, I'll come right out and say it. When we launched StreetGrep in Cognition, I was like, oh, this is why Magic with their 100 million token model never launched because they're a model lab. And Cognition is an agent lab. Build the agent first and then build the model. And I think that was like a back to front theme that I think really starts to play well. It remains to be seen, obviously, because I think the bitter lesson applies and scale and infrastructure and GPUs is king.

35:11uh how much of the relative value agent labs can capture with model labs but i think that's really bifurcating and like it's so weird yesterday opening i like kind of proved my point like did you watch the live stream from yesterday basically sam was like we're giving up on products we're building you know infra we have like chat gp we have sora but that's about it like everything else is third party we're going to be a platform you should make more more money than us on our models right he said all this and like i think to to me as i'm watching open the eye as long as you have uh that's never been that clear like they always wanted to yeah totally it's i think i think it's probably been not clear to them i think they've been debating it back and forth constantly they hired a ceo of applications that's curious because now they only have two um but like you know there's there's going to be applications built on uh chat gbt but like that's that's a different thing anyway so so i think like now the lane the swim lanes are very clear right you want to build agi go join a model lab you want to build uh products that serve users and and vertical domains build and build an agent lab and i think like that's really what i'm seeing with the agent lab thesis i think there's probably like more to flesh out here on like what a good agent lab looks like versus a bad one and but like i i'm pretty curious and i think like that explains the entire differences between the vibes that you get from agent lazarus's model labs i think one of the interesting implications maybe we'll explore this in the in the talk in a couple weeks is it might force enterprise buyers to think a little bit differently i think that it has felt for a while like you could effectively avoid pretty much all that's happening in the long tail and just deal with, you know, the, you know, the, the, the foundation model companies, or maybe the one sort of like leading vertical player in your interest.

37:09Like if you're legal, like maybe you deal with Harvey or, you know, if you're in medical, you do it by like, but not, you know, one of the reasons that I don't have a ton of space on the show to cover as many of the cool new products as I'd like is so much of the audience is like, well, I can, I just, I mean, that if I use it in my personal life, great, but there's no universe in which that's coming in. And if it really is the case that the model companies decide that they really are going to be platforms and let the agent labs build the next set, I think you will have to see an expansion in just the procurement process, which is a very, very discreet part of the conversation, but an interesting one.

37:46Yeah, no different take on that. I think maybe the one hole in this thesis is maybe anthropic because they're really building out clock code to be an agent lab within the model lab. And every model lab can easily build an agent lab, for sure. It is just a matter of resources and a matter of, honestly, social pecking order. To be an applied AI engineer inside a model lab is like low status. You're paid half what the researchers get paid, probably less if you're working on meta. I think it's interesting how seriously the lab's taken. And obviously, there's a very, very wide variance. But typically, and I speak to plenty of people in those roles, they are more like the forward deployed engineers, but they are not involved in research and the company clearly values research more.

38:32And that's just how it is. Well, Shad, awesome conversation. Could talk to you for hours, but excited for the event coming up in a few weeks. Thank you for hanging out and keep telling us where the future is. Yeah, I'm excited for your talk. Do you want to preview what you're going to talk about? I don't know yet, but what I do know is that I'd like it to be substantive as possible. So I don't know if you've seen, but I've got this thing live right now, ROI survey. Like I said, I think that next year there's going to be so much conversation of ROI. And this is like the kindergarten version of ROI.

39:08It's literally like, tell us your top use case, which of these eight areas is sort of like the biggest area of benefit, time saved, cost saved, whatever. and then give us your subjective rating of it, like how many hours per week or whatever. It is so generic, but I still, it's been live at the time of recording for like 36 hours and we have 250 plus use cases that people have logged in and said, here's how it's benefiting me. And already that's such a different amount of information that we don't really have access to. So I'm hoping that there's something that's interesting there, maybe combined with some of the other readouts and learnings that we've had from superintelligence.

39:45So it's not just me rambling. It's a little bit more data-driven, but we'll see. We'll see what's ready by November 20th. Good. Yeah, the ROI of AI is a perennial topic, just like every other leadership thing. It's weird because I can just have the same schedule every year. Yeah, it's totally different. Yeah. I mean, I hope we solve some things. We'll see. But human problems will always make new ones, you know, to replace the old ones. But yeah, thank you. Absolutely. I need to try to wrap up. Yeah. Thanks, John. I'll see you soon. See you soon.

From the publisher

With NLW currently on the road, he's joined in this conversation by Sean “Swyx” Wang — developer, writer, Latent Space host and newly joined member of Cognition. They explore how AI coding became 2025’s defining story, why “vibe coding” is ending (sort of), what comes next for developers, and how “Agent Labs” are reshaping the balance between model makers and product builders. Swyx also previews the upcoming AI Engineer Code Summit in New York and shares why “code AGI” could deliver 80% of AGI’s value long before full AGI arrives.

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