Another Close Win Raises More Goal Scoring Questions, Plus a Villa Preview

25:38The goals not going in is a problem, and I'm not suggesting for even one moment that we should gaslight anyone into saying, that's all that matters, don't worry about the scoreline. Worry about the scoreline. It really matters if you don't put the ball in the back of the net. it matters. My feeling though is that performances precede results. And I think Clive hit on the exact right thing, which is the season before last, right before we went on that run of runs, the performances started to turn. We had a bad run right before Christmas. We were not playing well. We were dropping points. And then the performances started to turn, even though the results weren't totally emphatic.

26:16But after the performances started to turn, the results became emphatic. So I do think that good, bad performances can precede drop points. We saw that with Liverpool. Okay, I think we might see that with Villa. But good performances can precede really good runs. And I'm at least encouraged by that. And I think it's fair to be encouraged while acknowledging and accepting the anxiety that goes along with close scorelines. The thing that I find hard to reconcile is people saying, Arsenal can't keep having these close scorelines and win a title, when all I see from the chasing pack is the very same thing.

26:52And I don't remember this narrative when City were throwing away three goal leads to Fulham, getting nearly pegged back by leads, having a one goal lead against Forrest. And I get it because they've won 423 consecutive Premier League titles. And that's why people trust them. They have Pep Guardiola, they have Erling Haaland. Until we show we can get the goals, people are going to be nervous. Now, Paul, I want to talk about one more period of the game because then I think, I do want to make sure we have time for a good Villa preview. And I think one of the best ways to access this game is actually through discussing three players.

27:22Pakayo Saka, Victor Yokores, and Martin Odegaard. So we're going to talk about those three individuals, okay? But I want to quickly talk about the period where Brighton did have some joy in this game. It was a shorter period and maybe less dominant than some of the other periods. But in the second half of each of the last few wins that we've had, the opposition has found a time where they've started to get some joy and they've started to run through us a bit and push us back the wolves game was a great example in that brief period where we were under pressure and it really annoyed Mikel there was a bit of it against Everton but there was a bit of it in this game it came from nothing their goal is very fluky if you look at it again we're totally on top they shoot through legs it finds the post it finds the one bounce off the post that can go to the one guy who's unmarked in the box and he gets a goal from nothing.

28:12I don't think that's a reflection of anything we did wrong. But from that point, we did get a little bit battered. And after that goal, all right, Yasin Ayari had a good shot blocked. He had another good shot blocked. Yacouba Minta had a good shot saved. And Mats Vifer had a header that was really good that was off target. And any of those moments could have resulted in goals. So do you have a diagnosis for what happened during the period where we wobbled a bit after they scored and maybe you know why that's been happening at periods to us uh it is a little bit of a head scratcher uh because i've gone back and looked at it too and like there was a time where we would say come on johnny brighton see what you can do against our shape and lately people have been able to do a fair bit against our shape at some point they'll you know this was a how did this come about they worked a triangle on our right hand side there was a bit of a deflection bouncing through the box like you look at it there's nothing spectacular here as you described it comes off the post to the right guy you know would different personnel here would it have turned would putting gabrielle in there magically have changed anything about this goal uh would a different right back have changed anything i mean maybe but it's it's hard to see it to the eye what was going to be different here and you know the the their second goal that david raya goes in his time machine and pulls it out of the net with the just ridiculous save um it's kind of similar it's like uh not the most we're well set up to defend it it's a try they're playing triangles on their on our left hand side you could critique maybe hincapier for and not been sharper to the obvious move that Minta was going to make inside to pick up the ball.

30:07But again, it's kind of lucky from them. I mean, Minta isn't the most clinical finisher. He's completely off balance, which is why he hits the ball the way he does, almost perfectly. But I do think there's some tightening up. There's some intensity. And there's like, why let them do that? why have those we kind of gave them two 10 minute spells where we're like all right you can play it and we're not gonna we're not gonna go nuts we're not gonna chase you around the pitch and i just think there's a little bit nothing huge minor tweaks minor i don't think we're far off where we need to be i think we're getting better each game we'll tighten this up in the second half there's some learning lessons we were nearly in a whole bunch of trouble it had been 2-2 and And psychologically, that would get at you.

30:56But it's not the worst second half. Just don't drop your energy. Don't let them have the ball. Keep hold of the ball. Maybe get a player or two on the pitch quicker that allow you to. We saw very decisively against Everton that we were playing out from the back. All the time, suicide mission, we don't care what you do. We're going to play from the goalkeeper out from the back. this was a return to some of that some are going long and i think it's just adjustments so that we don't create leave a vacuum for other other teams to grow into but no huge conclusions in this yeah and worth noting yeah go ahead cluck i just want to talk because i did i was in the ground

31:42Elliot:pool so i could see the change on on that side of the pit so at halftime they made two substitutions And they brought on Minta and I think Weaver, a right back. They changed and they pulled Kadio Glu over to left back. And they really started to hit their right-hand side. And Minta's a really good player, by the way. I mean, Newcastle had to sell Minta and Elliot Anderson. They must be thinking, crikey, because of PSR issues. They wouldn't mind having them in their group. And they started to hit them a little bit more and get some combinations going. and that started to destabilize our left-hand side.

32:17Elliot:You know, Myles was a little bit destabilized. He was pulled out a little bit. Trussard, who'd been booted about all game, wasn't defensively secure in the second half, didn't need to be defensively secure because we were so dominant. So he was forced to defend a little bit more. And so we just looked a bit shaky in that side and the manager saw it. And he made the change, right? He made the change. He got Myles out. He got Big Gabby in and he didn't look super fit, but he can certainly shout and point and click, mate. And he pointed and clicked, and people just felt more confident. And it went from there.

32:48Elliot:And Elliot's right on the three chances. The back post header was another one. But after that, it was over. It was done. And we had the scoreline, and we had the trauma in our mind. But it was done. We got a lot more stable, and it was over. Go ahead, Paul. I was just going to say, on the back post header, it looked like an open goal that he missed, right? But I actually think Incape does really well to narrow that. He flexed off him, mate. Touched him in a corner. So that tells you, people talk about substitutions, because Miles is not winning that header on the back post. Nope. And that could be 2-2.

33:24Elliot:And so that substitution stabilized us. We were much more airily combative, and we went from there. But I suppose over Christmas holidays, you get to watch more games of other teams, and then watch those games. None of them are smooth. Everyone has a period where they're not dominant. It's about what you do, how fast you adapt, how fast you make changes, and how you see it off. And we saw it off. And again, I felt quite comfortable. We saw it off towards the end. I wasn't stressed. Honestly, I wasn't. We saw it off. should have got the third and we rode out that period if they'd have scored i'll tell you now we'd have got the third goal you know we've got gears in this team after their 77th minute max v first shot that you just referenced they didn't have another shot in the game we had six and including two of our best chances to score we we did end the game very much on top of them and handling it and i i do think there were some fun gabby moments there was one moment where he made a clearance out of the box and turned around and gave it to the crowd two fists down kind of like come on there there were some there were some moments of real energy defensively and enthusiasm defensively for getting the game over the line which i think we've lacked you know without gabby i think there's a fear about defending our box and with gabby there's an excitement about defending our box right you can defend two ways you can defend excited to defend or you can defend scared to defend and he brings some of that excitement to defend back there's also an interesting video going around of Saliba saying something to Gabby in French and the lip readers are saying something like we're not mean enough right and it's being interpreted to say like yeah we're not killers enough and I'm sure as defenders when you're doing the heroic work they're doing to make our defensive record so good there is a feeling like come on guys at the other end of this can you please just stick one in the back of the net like in the NFL obviously when the defense is on the field the offense isn't when the offense is on the field the defense isn't and you can see sometimes in locker rooms in the NFL, when one of those units is really good and the other is bad, there can be a schism in the team, right?

35:31Like the defense can get really mad if they're pitching a shutout and the offense isn't getting it done. And so it was just sort of interesting. I'm sure those defenders would love a little more help from the finishers at the other end of the pitch so that they're not having to clear balls out of their box, you know, at 90 plus five to save a result.

35:47Elliot:One thing I will say that when he jogged on Big Gabby, you just sort of got a reminder that Big Gabby is back and a big defender walked into that team and i swear god it was over for them i honestly he just that was it it was over and uh yeah i can't describe it to you just he just ran on and that was it heart rate dropped and i just sat back in my seat paul yeah so like i think one of the mistakes we tend to make is we simplify our memory of our game and i think people think we had we defended our way out of this game. We didn't. The last, from 81 minutes or something, I'm looking at my little activity map, my notes from the game.

36:29It's all us. We get control of the ball. We pass it around. We keep the ball, which is what I particularly liked. And somehow the combination of Martinelli and Gabi Jesus is really starting to shine at the moment. Maybe I'm imagining magical powers and connections between them. But even with Martinelli on the wing, we hold the ball. We have all sorts of attacking opportunities. We have the sack in behind. We have the Martinelli in behind, or Martinelli zooming in on the back. Like, the last 10 minutes is all us. Now, it's not all us attacking, but it's all us controlling the play, moving it around.

37:08Maybe it's Gabby Jesus going into the corner, controlling the game, which I loved, right? But we remember it as, you know, we tightened up our defense and we saw that, no, we didn't see the game out. We took control of the game, which we have not done for a while. And so that was a particular favorite aspect of this. We saw a bit of that with playing against Everton, where we decidedly played out from the back, even when we were under pressure. But this one had a bit of, we actually picked up towards the end and took back control of the game. Yeah, you want to end the game the way we ended this game, which is the better chances to kill it off rather than the scrambled defensive play to end the game on a nervy note.

37:55But when it's only a one goal difference, it can be nervy. And Clive, I'll just ask you about the moment that obviously I think was the starring moment of the second half. And I'm not talking about the own goal that got us our second goal, but the Raya save. I think sometimes there's an attitude like if your goalkeeper had to make a great save, then you don't deserve to win or your defense didn't do it. The goalkeepers are there for a reason. And David Raya doesn't do much because we don't concede many chances. But he did make what is a stunning save. He's well out of his net. He makes a great leap.

38:33It's not just that he gets his hand to it. It's got a long way to go to get over the bar. So he's got to get good contact on it. it's a phenomenal save and he is a very very important part of this team for a reason we see it mostly with his distribution but in this moment you know i agree with you i think if they had equalized i think we might have found that that third goal but we didn't need it because

38:53Elliot:he made that save yeah um very good attack from bright let's be honest um a lovely flick in the box we tracked him nicely lovely flick caught us out and he took it early took the shot early and normally those are the ones that go in because goalkeeper can't get set and i've joe harpton a great bit of match a day on five live describing it i've reposted it because it's so good to hear a goalkeeper talk about another goalkeeper but not in that way where you feel like a goalkeeper is having his moment to be a pundit and he's over egging it he explains it perfectly tells you how he's at the end of his range and still even manages to get the ball over the top and really it was beautiful it's a jaw-dropping moment it really was jaw-dropping and how he didn't want how he focused on that moment because he knew he had a corner to defend and once the corner was there done and they headed it over that was the end of the game really from our perspective and did you get a sense in the ground of how good a save it was in the moment yeah mouth hit the floor mate mouth hit the floor i'm i'm in the north bank corner flag so i could see it behind it it was going in it was a goal the kid was we was he was wheeling away it was a goal yeah it was honestly for it was a goal you know you see the ball going to the bit where no one's standing in the net you know you don't have to be a wizard it's going in and um and then suddenly he just appears from nowhere so it's one of those eye-opening moments and um and yeah the thing is I think his introduction, and it's one of the things that I didn't really understand until he came into our team, his introduction has been one of the most tactically transformative moments in Arteta's reign.

40:35Elliot:Because he completely transformed how he plays. So there was Paul talk about the Everton game where he wanted to shut down the Liverpool crowd. You can't do that without him. And look at his distribution, how many times we go back to him. It allows us to attack in four lines. and that's the key thing. Loads of teams attacking three, weak attacking four because we've got an extra line in our team, which means we have 11 outfielders, which means we're very hard to pin down and he's key to that when we have those games. When we have sleepy games like this where we break all our attacking statistics for the season, he still pulls out a match-of-day moment.

41:11Elliot:So I think he's absolutely fantastic and I've learned about this through him. We're lucky to see him every single week. When he first came, I thought he was a bit small in the goal, I'll be honest with you, because that's where I sit and I can see him. I wasn't sure about those early Spurs games and the saves he was making, but he's growing everybody around me and he's now someone we don't even look at. We just expect him to be brilliant. And he is every single week. So an unbelievable signing that has transformed how we play the game of football and allow us to play all-phase football, which is what our identity is for me.

41:44Elliot:We can play all different types of game and he's a big part of that. yeah yeah it was sensational a huge moment and we did have chances as we referenced to to kill the game off i mean the the cross from sacca to martinelli it it's a great run for martinelli it's the exact thing that yokres doesn't do and we'll get to yokres in a minute which is he makes one little run for the defender behind his shoulder and then one beautiful run to the near post he gets there he uses his burst and he misses it's it's a bad miss uh sacca's played clean through and he's caught from behind by dunk um gabriel jesus maybe could have won a penalty for being shoved in the back and it's one of those where anywhere else that's a foul you push someone in the back who's in the air there's nothing they can do they're in the air they can't be stronger they're in the air it's a shove in the back but it's never a penalty i can't explain why it's never a penalty i'm not even sure i want it to be a penalty but it probably should be but so there were chances to kill the game we didn't have them i do have to say in the period where they were on top.

42:42I did feel that Miles was becoming a bit of a weakness for us. And I think Mikel was right to get him off in that moment. But the irony of course is their near goal that Raya saves is from Incapia going to sleep at left back and Minta sneaks in off him off his shoulder. He just stops for a minute and gives Minta the space instead of staying with him, not being touched tight. So that was sort of interesting. And then my last comment about that period is that period was the only period of the game where I really felt the absence of Declan Rice in midfield, where I started to feel like we were missing Declan Rice's ball recovery and presence in midfield.

43:18And it's interesting because after that period ended, towards the end of the game, I thought Declan Rice really came back into prominence in the game. And he had a couple of runs up the right-hand side, a couple of ball recoveries, a couple of moments where he shifted us back to front and really showed leadership. And that ability he has to be stronger in the last 10 minutes of a game really was noticeable in this game. I thought he was sensational to finish out the game. So interesting stuff from that period of the game. I do want to get into some individual analysis and maybe a bit on the just not scoring from good attacks stuff.

43:49So as I mentioned, I think Odegaard, Saka, and Yelkres are important talking points before we do our Villa preview. But before we do that, I want to make sure that I have you covered and you know what I'm talking about here. It's with the right VPN. And we're going to give you the right VPN. There's only one VPN to use. It's Nord. Nord VPN is an app you put on your phone, your computer, your iPad, your Android tablet, doesn't matter what the device is. All you have to do is tell it where you want it to browse and it takes care of the rest. So if you see a video and someone says, you got to watch this video, it's amazing.

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45:07Elliot:Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry.me. Let me ask you something. Do you think championship athletes got to the top by guessing? No, they had coaching. Every elite athlete has a coach watching their form, calling the plays, and spotting the blind spots they can't see themselves. That's how championships are won. So why are you trying to win in your career without a coach? You're grinding, hoping for the promotion, trying to read the politics, guessing your next move. That's amateur hour. If you want to perform like a pro, you need coaching. Strawberry.me matches you with a professional career coach who breaks down your game film.

45:47They help you negotiate the race, navigate workplace politics, and execute a strategy that actually works. Stop riding the bench in your own life. Go to strawberry.me slash podcast 50 to get 50 % off your first coaching session. Strawberry.me because pros don't guess, they get coached to win. Hi, this is Alex Kantrowicz. I'm the host of Big Technology Podcast, a longtime reporter and an on-air contributor to CNBC. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on Big Technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it.

46:28Asking where this is all going. They come from places like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices, in meetings with your colleagues, and at dinner parties, listen to Big Technology Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Clive, is that enough of that? Indeed. Okay, so let's start with Martin Odegaard, Clyde, because I just think that he, especially in the first half, was connected to everything we did well. It was the kind of performance that I'm not sure we've seen from him since before the injury last season, in that it tied together all of the great ball progression that we know we can do, and the really dynamic connecting in the final third and final ball stuff.

47:20And then, of course, he also gets the goal. I have to admit, when he scored the goal, couldn't help but have flashbacks to Donnarumma getting down low to his near post against PSG. It's the same kind of finish. He gives him the eyes. He goes low to the near post, and it's beautifully finished. This time there is no Donnarumma. It hits the back of the net. So how do you analyze this Odegaard performance and midfield in general? Because obviously Zuby, Marino, Odegaard, a bit of a different midfield.

47:47Elliot:Yeah, I thought this was a really good performance. You get a feeling in the ground, and then you can look around and see things like his heat maps. And it sort of validated what I was seeing, really, that he was all over midfield. And that is exactly what I've been calling for, really. Don't stand five yards away from our best player. Stand in the areas that really, really matter and receive the ball and build up. And he did exactly what the team needed, really. There were some, he had three or four passes that he played direct over the top. There were probably red lines on Sofa score, right?

48:21Elliot:But I loved them. I absolutely loved them because they were quick and they were early. There were some times when the ball would come across to him, I mean, sort of in just to the semicircle, just maybe slightly to the right. He'd receive it there. He was a bit awkward. And Saka's obviously over his shoulder. He knows he's there. And what he'd normally do, he'd master the ball, turn back on himself, and then lend it to Saka, and then go up behind him and then get it off him again. So he's not passing it with intention. So he still gets a progressive pass stat. Yeah? But by then, they're all back.

48:52Elliot:And what he was doing was so many flips around the corner, straight away. Even though he looked ugly, By doing it, the most important thing, it arrived on time. And then, of course, how many one-on-ones does Saka have in the game? Absolutely loads. How many box touches do he have? So, absolutely loads. And I think that's a lot to what Declan Rice gave him and to what Odegaard gave him. And so, the things I've had critiques about are maybe still there in my mind. Because the Champions League Cup final team, midfield is going to be Zoumendi, Rice, Odegaard. and I still haven't seen all of those three coexist correctly.

49:29Elliot:In this game, he had his best game of the season and Declan Rice was not in midfield. Yeah, I was wondering about that. So we haven't really, for me, if he can do that and Rice can do his thing and Zubman can do what he did in this game and if we can get that equitable type distribution amongst the three of them, we are going to be unstoppable. If he can get those shots off and stay around the tent and get our left side going, what else is there to do right then everybody else who's behind him they've got a lot to do to get past him you see what i mean and in this game when he did drop deep and because rice was out wide it was okay you see what i mean because we need that to happen in this game so i felt if anything he played almost like a declan rice midfielder role another thing we know he can flip the ball around we know he can flip it he can chip it over the top we know all those things he can pass the sack he can flip it in behind but i watched him sprint into ball recoveries because since the injury, I felt he's lacked any form of defensive physicality.

50:28Elliot:And maybe he was thinking, I don't want to get hurt again. I don't want to get hurt again. But in this game, he sprinted to the ball, got his body ahead of the ball. And so his activity and sharpness kept him away from collisions. And so his recovery, I don't know what the numbers are in it, but I saw him getting there, you know? And I felt that gave us a level of solidity in the game. So he's made better points this season. and he spoke about, I've been practicing and working on my shooting. And I went, bingo. There you go. We need seven goals from him. I said on WhatsApp, we need 10, but I'll be conservative.

51:04Elliot:We need seven goals from him like that. You know, that's his first goal at home since January 2024. Come on, that can't be, can it? That can't be. We need much, I think two years ago. So we need a lot more from that position. and he is starting to show that intent. So when someone's showing the right behaviors, you've got to be behind him. I thought he had a really, really solid game. Yep. His goal also, by the way, I think we should just point out, comes from a high turnover. The goalkeeper kicks it out quickly and Capier presses up, wins the ball. Declan Rice, quick, intelligent, header forward.

51:38Saka cuts it back to Odegaard. And so even though it's still, you know, a difficult finish from outside of the box, it's a goal from unsettled defensive play due to a high, I don't know if that counts as a high recovery because it was from a goal kick near the halfway line. But you get my point. It's a quick turnover of possession that we were able to cause by pressing up and winning the ball back and doing the right things. Paul? Yeah, I wanted to add one thing on Odegaard, which is for our second goal, it's a corner. It's a set piece. Oh, yes, Paul. Yeah, yeah. Sorry, I knew what you were going to say.

52:12Yeah, yeah. So I've been saying this for a while, but it's funny how the corner we tend to score from is the corner just after we razzle-dazzle them or a period of strong play. It's almost like they're a bit rattled. And the strong play just before this is we're playing it out of our left-back spot. It's Mazou Skelly, Trossard, picking it back and forward. They decide to... Nobody's going to clear this ball. We're trying to maintain control, so they spin it across. Incapier to Raya, who bobbles the ball, is getting pressed, is in a bit of trouble. He needs to ping it to a midfielder, but a midfielder on the left side of the box, almost where a left back would be.

52:54And he guesses, Elliot, as to who that midfielder might be that was standing on the left. Yeah, it was Martin Odegaard. He almost gets the ball taken off him too before he plays it out, I think, to deck on the place. He does not. And then away we go. He does not. He spins away. He spins away. He spins it out to the right wing. It gets played up the right wing. Saka needs somebody to take it off him sprinting up the right wing who is that midfielder that midfielder is also Martin Odegaard the ball gets spun across the front of their box Marino out to Trossard who lays it back to the box crashing midfielder who turns out to be Martin Odegaard who gets a shot off and we get our corner so that's a guy to Clive's point who was everywhere on that pitch i would say everywhere he needed to be there was a hole where that he filled there and without him there i don't know that was the difference he was everywhere we need him to be

53:52Elliot:and not where the easy work was and on that shot ball because i'm looking right down on that he was going to the opposite corner so he's whipping it in it was a great block that was going in mate i'll tell you now that was going in and um so it's a great block from them so he had real intentional on this shooting and that is a really positive sign because we all know there's there's goals in that boy on that left foot i think led to the most hated goal the combination of a set piece an own goal i think that's our man fully sustainable

54:26because you know nicholas jover is in the technical area so that'll send them mad louis dunford running up the pitch with a guitar uh hand crafting a new song Martin Odegaard taking the pictures of the goal going in with Stuart's camera. kissing the keeper on the nape of his neck. Like we're building to something really special here. I do think this, and okay, just bear with me because I realize sometimes you squint to see the things you want to see because they fit narratively. But if you want to ask me what's been wrong with Martin Odegaard, and I'm going to put wrong in quotes because Martin Odegaard has never been bad.

55:01I just think he's been off his best. What's been not perfect about Martin Odegaard, how about that, over the last year or so since his injury is that the engine and the power in his game has not been consistently there. When Martin Odegaard was in his absolute pump, two of the things we would say about him, one, he had the best engine in the team. Now, I think Declan Rice came in and maybe took that up a level, but I think Odegaard was right there from an engine standpoint, back to front, box to box, incredible engine. The other thing is his ball strike. We used to talk about him consistently as our best striker of the ball.

55:30And post-injury, some of the power in his ball striking, some of the consistency in his ball striking had gone, and some of his engine, I think, had gone a little bit. So if he was dropping deep, he wasn't maybe arriving in the box as much. When he needed to cover all the pitch, maybe some of that pitch coverage was there. But what I think we're starting to see is the strength and the power of the ball striking. And we saw a bit of it starting to come back at the end of last season, to be fair, like in the PSG game. But the strength and the power in his ball striking and the engine that he has is starting to come back.

55:57And so to Paul's point, right before that corner kick, the way he influences the game in all three-thirds, the way he arrives with a powerful strike at the end of a lung-busting run. That's a really good sign. Five ball recoveries to Clive's point, joint most in our team. Again, a good point. Yeah, there you go. You said it. You were right. So I think it is incumbent upon us not just to look at last actions and technical execution, but the things that make players unique. And I think Martin Odegaard, as technical as he is, because he had one moment in this game, right, where he got the ball in the middle third on a counterattack and he kind of slid it.

56:31I think he nutmegged someone in midfield and sprinted away. He's always had that. He'll always have that. He's just special with that stuff. But the engine and the power in his game, that's Premier League difference-making, right? Because you can have all the technical quality in the world. Just ask Florian Vertz. If you don't have the engine and the power, you're dead. Okay? Martin Odegaard's got that engine and that power in his game again, and I think that bodes really well. And I'm very excited to see him continue to grow into this team. Fantastic performance. Less fantastic, I think, is a gentle way to say, introduce the discussion around Victor Jokeres.

57:08Sometimes games are defined by the first thing you do in the game. It just sets a tone. And Leo bounces a sort of hopeful ball, chips a hopeful ball over the top in the second minute. It bounces over dunk onto Jokeres. And if you said to me, what's the one thing I felt confident about Victor Jokeres coming into Arsenal about, I'd say he can hit the ball very, very hard and accurately. but he did not hit the ball very hard in this instance. He tamely tapped it back to the keeper. And that was in the second minute. And from there, the game just didn't quite pan out for him. Clive, I'm going to say something people won't like.

57:47I think the discourse around this performance has exceeded the reality of this performance. I think the way it's now being discussed is not accurate because people are very frustrated with the player, understandably so, he has not been at the level. I don't there are people breaking down individual runs he made in this game there was one I know where Saka had the ball on the right and he did not make the right run and he hid behind the center back and went back post instead of running across the face of the player and he blew it and it happens and I'm sure every player in a game makes a run that they wish they could do differently I'm not going to sit here and pretend this was a good performance because it wasn't I just think the intensity of the scrutiny around it has exceeded what really happened but I'm curious how you connect to this because clearly it's not happening for him and with kai nearly back and jesus all the way back his position is certainly going to be under major threat now yeah but

58:40Elliot:that's never that's never worried me he's always he's always group think for me right so um and so from my point of view a lot of people say we need number nine and we do need number nine we needed that outright number nine because we have everything else in our squad we don't have that so I was really hopeful that that profile we needed that and we had it and one of the things that he used to really have I said used to already because it sounds like past tense but his volume of sprints was much higher than it is now than what I'm seeing and his relentless running was really good at the start of the season he wasn't fit but he kept trying he kept trying, he kept trying now he's starting to think a little bit I can see it in him I started to think.

59:26Elliot:And so you can only take a view from what you see. And there were times when we were building up on the back, Stieber's got the ball, and there's a space to go into the centre forward area. And what he was doing, he was standing next to his centre half. He wasn't really showing in for the ball. And I could tell, and I went, oh no, you're losing a bit of confidence now. You don't want it in that crowd team because you think you might lose it and then people can have a go, sort of thing. And it happens. And he stood next to him. And Saliba then turns out, goes out to the other side, and we go down the left-hand side, blah, blah, blah.

59:57Elliot:This happens a lot in football. You just see it. And I saw that two or three times. You wouldn't see it at home, but just where I was sitting, I could see it, particularly first half. But there are other times where he looked quite dynamic, particularly on early passes. And I come back to that word early. Trossard knows what to do for him. That was not a clearance. It was around the corner ball. Max Dalman did it in the League Cup game. to the sideline, flick it in behind, straight away in behind, and he's off. His skill is early movement. And we need that in our team. We really need it. The reason why, when Kai was struggling, I was really supportive of that because I knew he was a super player, could do all different things.

1:00:40Elliot:I liked him at Bayer Leverkusen. I knew he was technically enough. I knew he would get there. I don't have the same technical confidence I do in Victor Jokeres, but I tell you what I'm absolutely clear on is that we need a centre forward that runs like him in behind. We do need that in our team. Every game presents a different problem. Sometimes a half-hour period presents a different problem. And we need to have the tools to come to a solution on those problems. And if we have a bunch of false nines that don't want to move, I'll tell you now, we'll do a podcast about lack of movement, static play, etc., etc.

1:01:16Elliot:Gabriel Jesus ain't going to do it. Kai can do it. Kai's the most all-round player we have. Marino's not going to do it. We saw what happened first half against Villa. We didn't have the right player on the pitch for that game. We need a dynamic mover. We brought Jokic on at halftime. Not sure how much that worked on the day. Trostar changed the game again on that day. We need that in our squad. So I want to be supportive. I can see he's struggling. But then he does something good. Just when you're giving up, he rolls around the corner and gets a shot. And you think, it's in there. And I just want to hope he's going to come out.

1:01:45but for me he was always part of a group you know and and that was it we didn't pay super top dollar

1:01:52Elliot:for him he was always part of a group and this team and modern football needs that type of forward and we just need to stay with him if it doesn't work i'm not gonna cry you know i'm i'm really not gonna cry if it doesn't work but we for me i'm gonna stay with him anyway despite seeing some of the struggles. He is our leading goal scorer. It's worth noting. Not that that's a defense of the caliber of the performances. I mean, Clive, can I stay with you for one second and ask you a quick question? And I do have some friends and people I talked to who were convinced that the team doesn't trust him and isn't passing to him in certain situations.

1:02:33And I have to say, I don't see that. You know, the one where people say they want Saka to pass to him, I don't know that I think the pass is on. I also think, look, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm naive. I don't think in the heat of a title race, in the heat of a Premier League game, in the box with players around you, players have the time to think well i'm not going to cut back to the open guy that's the guy i don't like i maybe i'm wrong maybe players do think like that i personally don't buy it um i just think the runs haven't always been convincing enough again comparing the run he didn't make for that one sack a moment to the one that martinelli makes martinelli pass or sack of passes to martinelli not because he likes martinelli more clive but because martinelli gets to the spot you

1:03:16Elliot:yeah now you could say to Victor goes back post by the way we have other strikers to do that as well Gabriel Jesus doesn't always go in front of the man you know and um and for me it was the the lack of showing defeat that I saw um I have had that feeling that he's not trusted I'll be honest with you I've had the feeling I can see it and I was speaking to um another podcast shall we say and we were talking about what's it like in small-sided games when you don't get the ball you know why didn't you because you've bloody lost it twice beforehand and they turn away from you it's what footballers do if you're gonna lose it you're not getting it sort yourself out then you'll get it you know i mean and that happens on a pitch all of the time for those people who play power league exactly the same you know it's a it's just football and i think there are times when the players thinking oh well he ain't gonna win that race i'm not gonna give it to him right i don't think there's anything dramatic about that it happens but there are other players that say yeah i'm going to keep feeding you and trossard is one for example and odegaard tried in this game as well to get him in to get him going you know and i i think it's important it's almost like you're a basketball player you need to get him hot so you over feed him then his hand gets hot and suddenly you're in the game you've got your five going you know that's where i am with him it is coming up right we've got a decision to make i'm sure you're going to get to that earlier um good decision to make but have we got a decision to make you know my views i think he's got a part to play in this game ain't got to be for the full 90 does i mean i think it's very important to our ability to keep people away from us if he doesn't be on the pitch we need to have one of martinelli on the pitch or jokras on the pitch at all times so we threaten back lines in this period there was a temp in this game sorry there was a 10 minute gap before martinelli came on and I thought that was too long.

1:05:09Elliot:We needed him on quicker to keep them away from us. Why not make the three substitutes at the same time? And they were done, mate. I don't know if you're going to talk about Martin. Yeah, I do think that when Jesus came on for Yocres, it would have made sense to make the Martinelli swap at that time. So first of all, you still have the threat in behind and also because Martinelli and Jesus seem to have such a... We're not informed on injury situations and things like that and minutes etc we're not informed however i have to say this to you now i've watched my day in the crystal palace game first half and i watched him in this game and you know i've given him sticking a pass mate he is absolutely electric at the moment yeah and i mean electric yeah yeah uh three letters for you ppv that might be some kind of illness inevitably it will but i'm talking patterns partnerships vibes and he's lacking all three at the moment and by contrast let's go to martinelli and jesus like every minute they've played on the pitch together which is not a lot so far in terms of a sample size recently they just they look for each other you know is it do they not trust yachoresh is it like these two guys look for each other you know the penalty shout you were talking about that's comes from Martinelli hitting a cross with the outside of his boot now that's a guy having fun right feeling it that is not the standard cross from Martinelli that's a guy who's feeling his oats how does he receive the ball outside of the boot from Gabriel Jesus from the center of the box so one guy whacks it with the outside of the book it's almost like they're playing jazz right and Martinelli is not the most jazzy player I think of that's almost more of a um a trossard or a sack of kind but like it has freed him up and loosened him up and now I swing back to Yarkaraj he doesn't have that with anybody at the moment he'll be a better player for us in the future he will we will learn patterns with them we will develop partnerships and he'll have better vibes but that's not this moment right now he's uh if you have a toolbox he's a hammer uh but he has that claw thing on the other side of it so he does a couple of things but he's still a hammer he's not a screwdriver he's not he's not the all-around tool we will find uses for him games for him i don't know he's obviously not haaland um unfortunately um but he is jacoresh and there our uses for him and he will become a lot better for us, but he needs patterns, partnerships and better vibes.

1:07:49And that will come at some point. And you know, the competition from yeah, needs go. And then he needs another goal and he needs, he needs to feel like a big goal,

1:08:00Elliot:like a big memory. He needs a big goal. Yeah. Look, a few, a few things here. First of all, I do think that there is an argument that is running makes a difference that having a center forward who runs aggressively at the center backs does a few things. One of the things I think it does is it just keeps their defensive line height that little bit lower. If you do not respect the pace of the players that are on the pitch or think they're going to just keep dropping in, then the center backs and the defensive line can cheat up. Lines get compressed. It's harder to play through. Those mid blocks get filthier and suddenly you have the horseshoe of death.

1:08:33And I think that this breaks that up a bit. I don't think you can just look at a team in a team sport that has the kind of attacking numbers that we have, underlying numbers, when he's on the pitch and ignore it and say none of it has anything to do with him. Now that's damning with faint praise. I get it. It is a low bar. No one is suggesting that's good enough. But to ignore it completely is, I think, a little unfair. You know, I think it is a little unfair when a team has a couple of its best attacking performances with a guy on the pitch playing number nine and to just completely dismiss him and say he's worthless when he was on the pitch during that attacking performance.

1:09:06I agree. Some of the runs are too simplistic. There's also the moment, though, where Odegaard chips the ball over the top. He shows good strength and good acceleration. He fires the shot off the post from an acute angle. You know, I mean, that did happen. You know, that did happen. There are little...

1:09:21Elliot:Keeper saved it, I think. Did he save it? It's not just off the post? Yeah, all right, there you go. Keeper saves it well. And again, like I said, I know it's damning with faint praise. I realize we're into the realm of squinting to see it. What I'm saying is, I think the volume and intensity of critique has exceeded the reality of the performances, but the critique is warranted. So it's a bit of both. I will say his on-off numbers, things like that, which measure how the team performs when you're on versus when you're not on, are very good. So when he's on, at least from an underlying metric standpoint, we've done some things that are good, but ultimately there's a lot of anxiety about sticking the ball in the back of the net, and he's not doing that enough, and he's not a player who influences the game in enough ways to justify his inclusion when he's not sticking the ball in the back of the net.

1:10:05Now, the comparison with Martinelli, because now you start seeing the, well, maybe Martinelli's a center forward talk again. I think Gabriel Martinelli benefits from coming on the pitch when the opposition is down and they have to try to chase a winning goal and the game stretches out a bit. And when the game stretches out a bit, Gabriel Martinelli is going to look quite good. And by the way, that's not a criticism of Gabriel Martinelli. It's a brilliant thing about Gabriel Martinelli, but it is a reality. When you have a center forward in Gabriel Jesus, also, by the way, who swaps positions around and defenders get confused and Jesus is off the left and Martinelli is through the middle.

1:10:33Again, those partnerships, to Paul's point, make attackers look more effective. So we are in this position where do we just jettison Yorchores from the team at this point and say he's not at the level? My instinct is this. I don't think he, I think I can conclusively say at this point that I don't think Victor Yorchores is as good as I hoped he could be. I think that what we are seeing now is a player who benefited from being in a very, very poor Portuguese league. Should be noted, by the way, that Jakob Kivior is basically a Ballon d 'Or level player in the Portuguese league at the moment. It's not a good league.

1:11:03And he ate it for lunch. Now, not every player who goes to a bad league scores 50 goals a season. There's something in him, in his makeup, in his talent that scored those goals. He scored those goals. But it's a bad league. He's come to the Premier League and it's too high for him. It's too high a level. Do I think he can't perform at all? I don't. And I think he's doing some things that maybe are informing and influencing our performances in a positive way. So, Clive, I am prepared to re-underwrite my evaluation to this player. And I think that is fair to do. But I am not ready to say this is a Maryland-Shamak situation.

1:11:34I'm not at that point yet, you know?

1:11:36Elliot:No, no. So I must admit, he's had so many different games and also had some good moments. But he hasn't really missed a glaring chance. Do you know what I mean by that? I thought his early chance was poorly taken, to be fair. It's not glaring. Well, I'm just about to get on to that earlier. so apart from this first chance in the first minute and i thought you know what this is you now i thought he could just smash it in i didn't realize he was the keeper was in a no man's land he could just lobbed it over him and i think he tried to and i think he just got the bottom of his studs and just passed back and that sort of miss really took a lot of air out the building you know and it really hurt me i'll be honest with you my season ticket mate trevor i was talking to him like oh mate come on we all want you to succeed that's you that's a bit of you that is that's laces get your laces on it come on you know and um and that made and he's starting to think a little bit and so that that worried me that did worry me i gotta be honest here the technical level is the thing that concerns me because Arsenal fans are growing used to every single player been able to look after the ball you know we weren't having Mikel Mourinho at the start and look how technical he is.

1:12:50Elliot:And people are still not sure about him technically and he's a mile ahead. So he's not the technically best. So if you're not technically the best, you better be physically really good. Really, really robust and strong. And so you know what? I may not be as good as these twinkle-toe lot around me, but no one's going to run harder than me. No one's going to work harder than me. I'm going to run those sides until my heart drops out. Do you know what I mean? He's got to do that. He's got to build his game up again. Don't try and be like the rest of them. be like you be that bull in a giant china shop get after it get after people demand the ball be demonstrative be a lot more of a presence until your 65 minutes is up and then get off the pitch you know and let's not forget with the reasons why we wanted a centre forward like this it's because of our previous centre forwards not being centre forward enough so let's not get seduced by our old girlfriends out there do you know what I mean there'll be a reminder of why you're not with them do you know what I mean and so Gabriel Jesus he's always everywhere but not at centre forward and the first game that we don't win when he's not at centre forward you might as well bring out an old podcast do you know what I mean so we have to we've got to stay with these players we've got five substitutions the manager we're coming up against very very soon has learned how to use his substitutions effectively to end games very very strongly we have to look at football differently and recognize these are tools to apply to a certain game state and jokeres is a unique tool in our toolbox and we must empower him to be that guy you know and you've got to be that guy we've got to support him that's that's why i am and it is a difficult one because one of the things that we know from the data is that he was among the absolute best in all of europe in repeat repeat the number of top intensity sprints per 90.

1:14:44When you're not really trusted and you come off at 60 or 70 minutes every game, what you don't get to do is those last three sprints in the 80th minute when the defenders are really tired and you've still got the energy and you finally get past them once and you get that key goal. He's the type of player that maybe that sprint repeatability would show up in end state of games. But if you're not playing well enough, you don't get to be on in the end state of games. And that's a bit tricky. there'll be more time to analyze this player and I want to get into the video preview but before we do I think there's one more player we have to analyze and that's Pakaio Saka sometimes I really thoughtfully prepare my comments for a section to avoid people getting mad at me I'm not going to do that and there's today because I'm a little sick I'm not feeling well I don't have the energy I want Pakaio Saka to do better and I can hear people furiously trying to get to a device to type up an email or a message.

1:15:38I want him to do better. And he can say, he had an assist in this game. He had seven shots in this game. He had four chances created in this game. Everything we did well in this game flowed through Bikai Osaka. And I agree. But I do not think you win things without one player in your front line or somewhere in that team being decisive in the final third. And I think Bikai Osaka is a player we all believe is among the absolute best in the world. A Ballon d 'Or level player. a player who is rightfully compared to Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland and is in that class of player. So if I think that's the level of the player, then even when he has as dominant a game as he had here, I think it is fair to say I want him to do better with the last action because someone at Arsenal has to do better with the last action.

1:16:27And for me, saying should the guy who just transferred from Portugal who may not be that good be the guy, or should the guy who's about to be on$350 ,000 a week who we think could win the Ballon d 'Or be that guy? I'm going to go with the latter. So, Paul, Bakayo Saka, absolutely unplayable in this game. But I want more. I want more. I want him to score from one of those moments. I want him to pick out the perfect pass from one of those moments. And I know he had the assist for Odegaard to slid pass across the top of the box. Like I said, he was unplayable for a large stretch of this game and had seven shots.

1:17:00I want him to score the goal. I just, I want this incredible player to do even more than what he's doing. Am I a completely selfish and inconsiderate prick? Yeah. As I said on the IR, you ungrateful bastard. To all those people who are writing that email, don't bother. I got you covered here. Just want to warn you. Clive sees this the way I do. Just warning. That's okay. you're using him as your human human ship yep uh he's phenomenal at the moment like i agree put ball in net more often be a bit more assisty you know again like i went back and looked at all his chances in this i'm like individually pretty much all pretty like those one he skies where but the ball he's kind of reaching to do the classic sack uh curve the ball around and it's like it's almost like his foot goes from under him or whatever he wasn't the only guy who slipped on his ass a few times on the pitch like mostly it was like okay individually i didn't see any real howlers there his 1v1 where he's through on goal he knows he's offside because he has the view of the line like i'm not saying he decides to miss it i'm just saying it's a different mentality when you know you're offside he's the guy who can see the whole line he knows he's a yard past the guy okay put it in the back of the net but i'm not really here i've been tricked again by you into defending his finishing he's brilliant he's absolutely brilliant at the moment we have gone up a level this year in saying but kaiosaka doesn't need us in his area of the pitch we will leave him 1v1 we will not bring players into his area odegaard doesn't stand there all the time whatever your view of odegaard he doesn't do that so he doesn't bring in two more players with him we don't have a fullback station beside him all the time they come they go they add a bit of variety he's killing everybody he plays he's mincing them and yeah to your point well then wouldn't it be nice if he if we finished a bit more if he did a you know if he put in the but he's in such good form i'm not concerned even if i'd like his numbers to be a liar yeah it's absolutely in scintillating form at the moment i agree if i thought bakaosaka was doku i wouldn't have even brought it up but i don't think that's who he is right i i think he's something more than that and so the scintillating form he's in i think can even go up another level um sure i'll just i'll just do the tiktok of a couple of these moments so obviously in the fourth minute he drives to the byline he gets by his man effortlessly he shoots straight at the keeper from the byline i thought there was a pullback opportunity there but okay um saka odegaard worked it quick into him in the 14th minute he worked it onto his left foot that's where he gets it onto his left brilliantly, but curls it well over.

1:20:09Um, and I, I know he'd want that one back cause that is his, that's sort of his signature shot. He had a shot where he was played in. He got the shot blocked in the 33rd minute. Then there were a couple of very, very big moments. He's in one V one, um, in the 42nd minute, again, sort of near post and decides to take a shot at the keeper. Then he gets in again with great body control. And this is the one where leads to the Zubamendi backheel and the Yoker S header, you know, and all of that. But his cross didn't find anybody. There's obviously the one towards the end where he's played in clean through and Dunk gets back to block it.

1:20:46He created so many big moments, Clive. He just, you know, he's not finding the back of that. And if you had to ask me, by the way, my instinct is he's on the brink of exploding because I think he has too much quality not to turn these moments into something. But can I just say something too? Players aren't idiots. I just want to stop you Elliot Clive thinks this is very funny I don't know why he does but we're about to find out regardless of both of what either of you were saying I'm going to say this players aren't stupid if you're sitting in that dressing room at full time I'm sure Bakayo Saka was turning to his mates and saying I left some goals out there I'm frustrated I want that back I want a couple of those shots back because he knows he knows I'm sure he knows he could have come away with two goals and three assists or three goals and two assists in this game and that's my point I think he's that level of player, Clive.

1:21:35Elliot:There's not a lot left to say, to be honest, Elliot. There we go. That's what I was sure. But yeah, the table was laid for him really, really well by Odegaard and Rice, and he didn't take full advantage of it. He only kicked one into the car park. The rest were decent efforts. And when you walk out of a game and you know he's had like seven shots because my phone told me, you have an instant reaction feeling of come on man do a bit more then you watch the game i watch our patterns of play i watch how he destroyed the fullback just brilliant dribbling had them everywhere he was running centrally you're spinning out wide and you look at the performance as a whole you think back to where we are at the start of this if we keep doing this someone's getting a whooping mate yep simple as that someone's getting a whooping and uh and that's it and that's where i am and so there's your instant feelings you know for those people who want you can't get the ocarous chance out of their heads then you're not going the way we did after the next 50 odd minutes 60 minutes after that not gonna you're not gonna see it right because it's because it hurts you right you're staging your mind and in this game i thought you want you want to put it in summary he could have been a little bit wasteful but he's also trying to kick through legs you know by that and that they're the ones that go through the legs it's in you know goalkeeper's not there and he's going for that a little bit more i would like him to be a bit more serious in his finishing you know i have this feeling i've got to say my truth he's a really good finisher he needs to he's get he's the man with the cold heart he needs to work on it because we're all sitting there thinking i'm not sure who's going to score at center forward let's be honest we're not sure who's going to score at center forward Odegaard scored his first goal for me two years at home so now we're looking at number seven say come on mate you've got to do it Martinelli doesn't really score in the league great in Europe right so um he's had his purple patches but no one knows where he's going to play yet and when he's going to play next right so we're looking at number seven and we need him to do it because he's done it before and he was about to explode before his hamstring we need him to do it really the way we are.

1:23:52Elliot:I think Yoliga was our 12th scorer this season. We are a group of collective players. We need them all to do it. Hence my reluctance not to throw anybody in the bin. Players have targets going... I thought you were going to jump in in the middle of Clive's thing and say, Your Honor, permission to treat the witness as hostile. But he's walking back towards you towards the end. Yeah, look. Players have targets going into seasons. Let's not be precious about this. Kaio Saka is the kind of player who would have said going into this season, I want 15 goals and 10 assists. You know, he has targets for himself.

1:24:30Currently has three non-penalty goals and two assists. He's playing brilliantly. But I rate him, in a way I almost feel like, maybe I rate him more than others. Because I rate him enough to think he can do the part where he roasts his man and finds the end product. And by the way, our leading goal scorers, non-penalty right now, are Leo Trusard and Eber Echeza with four. It's not going to get it. Look, I love the idea of sharing goals around, guys. I do. It is not going to get it done. Someone, someone's going to have to get to 15 goals. And there's no one I trust to have that talent or that quality more than Bakayo Saka.

1:25:09I just don't know that I believe you can win everything we want to win if you end the season and you say your leading goal scorer had eight non-penalty goals or something. I think someone's got to reliably score the goal that wins you stuff. And we always used to say it, who gets the first goal? Right, Pakayo Saka. He gets the first goal. He opens the scoring. So I think I can observe that he is unplayable at the moment and still want more from the guy that we are about to make the highest paid in the history of our club because he is that good. And he will have targets that he is currently not hitting.

1:25:43There is no chance in the world that if you had a chance to talk to Mikhail Saka right now, he'd say he's satisfied with his goal and assist return. He wants more. I promise you. And I think he can, starting Tuesday. So, Clive, it's a big game. It's a team we owe one, a very painful loss. Mikhail was very, very clear on how painful that was in his pre-match comments. We don't know who's going to be fit. I guess the first thing I want to ask you is, do you think they will risk Gabby from the start? Yep.

1:26:12Elliot:Okay. I think they're risking from the start. I think one of Califiora will be on the bench to replace him during the game I think we're going to get Timber back I think the midfield will pick itself and I think the forwards line will be the same that started in this game with substitutions to come on and change the energy of the game later on that's what I think he's going to do if he does anything different I don't mind I'm not worried you know my views on starting 11 it's becoming more and more clear to more and more people it's important but it's not important you can't get it completely wrong like you do it against Villa and it costs you a goal because you haven't really worked out that their fullbacks are quite intense and sprinting and you don't put our least intense player out there.

1:26:50Elliot:That was not smart. And then we didn't have the ability by playing Marina at centre forward, who by the way at that time was our most informed player and we picked him at centre forward. It was the wrong game for him to start the game. We would have ended the game differently with a little bit more control if we picked the starting XI correctly. Our wide players that came on in that game, Madweke, didn't really do it. Trossard did a cause where I didn't have to come off towards the end so yeah a game that's been burned in my brain for many different reasons I thought our midfield was unbalanced I didn't think we used the ball well enough I didn't think particularly in the first half I thought we were playing passive we didn't take Villa apart as we should do and we need to start really fast against them because they fancy themselves late in games and they fancy themselves as a really tactical team that never gives up blah blah blah I'm not having it they need to be put to the sword you know need to be put to the sword properly because Aston Villa has cost this club a lot in the last couple of years you know they really do focus on us Wally Watkins was not starting the Chelsea game he's on the bench that was with Villa for me that's with Arsenal in mind because he always plays well at the Emirates so we need our top boys back there and I think we're going to be much better much hand much better we went there with no centre-backs earlier re-watched the highlights we were all over the place defensively honestly all over the place defensively that won't be the case on Tuesday night.

1:28:10Elliot:So I'm looking forward to it. It is astonishing what Unai is doing. It's also astonishing how much he is defying gravity from a data standpoint. They've 29 goals on 19 expected. They've conceded 19 goals on 25 expected. They are third in the Premier League, three points off the top with a minus 5.7 expected goal difference, but a plus 10 actual goal difference. It's the kind of thing that will lead certain people to certainly say, well, that's the whole point xg is nonsense and i know there's a lot of you listening who feel that way i am more inclined to think that even if you don't think it's fully predictive that it's telling some kind of story which is that aston villa have slightly overperformed based on the you know what you see and again against chelsea hammered for a half stayed in the game somehow and then chelsea you know because they're not very good lost the game late villa do have the kind of players too who can make xg look stupid like morgan rogers who can score goals from nothing ollie watkins back in some good form but i think it is worth noting in this 11 game run as good as they've been they have a lot of important players out for this game against us um so they are going to be thin in a few positions they are missing some key players i think maddie cash is suspended for this game as well so it's not camera they're saying to me yep yep yep yep yep camera maddie cash so they're going to be without some important players paul i mean the hallmark of the arteta year over the last few seasons has been that we've been great in big games it's the other games that sometimes tripped us up but this season drew it home to city maybe disappointingly lost away to liverpool lost away to villa disappointing draw against 10-man chelsea it hasn't been our best season for big games the newcastle game was good but they actually haven't been very good candidly So this is an important statement moment.

1:29:59Villa want to say that they belong in the conversation and can pull level on points at the top. Depending on what City do, we could both be second. They have a chance to really, you know, by doing the double over Arsenal, announce themselves in a title race in a very serious way. It would be hard not to take them seriously. There are a lot of reasons I doubt them, but at some point those doubts have to be laid to rest. Mikel said it's good to have anger going into this. In fact, he was pressed if the last gas defeat could fire us up for the rematch. Mikel said, if you use that motivation, that anger in the right manner, for sure.

1:30:33I just want to see us win by seven or eight clear goals. So can I have that, Paul? Because I think that needs to happen. No, no, you can't have that. That's a shame. I'm super stoked about this game. I think it's exactly the game we need just about now. I think we're going to win. I think we're going to play really well. I think it's going to be exciting. I think the world's going to watch. I think it's going to change narratives again. I don't really care about narratives, but other people do. So then I end up caring about narratives because other people do. They're on a hell of a run at the moment in terms of form.

1:31:12But we got some stats, some runs on our side too. We played 18 games this season. 13 of them we've scored first that's pretty good we've won all of those games so my formula is pretty simple score first um and like maybe it's not that simple but maybe it is maybe we're there's a lot of people framing this in a way that makes them very nervous frame it in a way that does not make you so nervous we got to score first how would i line up i'd put i'd start with yaka rash I'd basically get our strongest kind of standard lineup because I don't want Gabriel Jesus wearing himself out against a Villa that's kind of sitting in, has a mid block, et cetera, et cetera.

1:32:00And by the time he could actually do something against them, he's knackered. I want him coming on. It's all about the subs. It's all right. It's all about Emery's mind games and substitutions on 70 minutes. And it's all about our subs on 70 minutes. And I want those subs to be Martinelli and Gabby Jesus. And they want to play some basketball. We'll play some basketball too. And we'll hold on to the ball. And we'll have Big Gabby and Saliba in our back line. Please, God. And a strong back line, a strong midfield with Declan Rice. And we'll go play some basketball down their end for a bit. And we'll hold on to the ball.

1:32:38And if needs be, we'll play out from the back. I think we're so much more ready to play them. I don't take this for granted but I'm so this is going to be a fantastic game for those neutrals we all hate but also for us yeah Clive as sort of a last thing as we wind this up a bit I mean I think this was sort of the start of the run where you felt and I sort of agree that Mikel got the lineups wrong for a series of games I do think against Villa you really want someone who tests the back line with the running and we went with the front line of Leo Marino and Saka, pardon me, Eza, Marino and Saka for the game at Villa Park.

1:33:21I would like to see one of, if not both, of Martinelli and Yocraz start in this game and have some really hard running to push them back and to test them if they do try to push that line up. Do you think that that's something that Mikel is going to go for this time around?

1:33:38Elliot:Yeah, I sort of said that earlier. I think one of them should be on the pitch. I think let's not let's just calm our jets a little bit right so they've got Lindelof and Konza back there and Mattson and a guy who will probably play right back it's either Andre Garcia his name is I did a bit on him this morning to have a look at what he is a bit of a winger fullback and another guy called Bogard who might play there or he might play in midfield mate if we are serious let's not get all scaly cats about this let's just go and do with them. If we'd have had Saliba at Villa Park, we'd have won that game.

1:34:15Elliot:You know, go and look at the period when we were dominating the second half, the gap was huge. We ran out of puff a bit towards the end of that game, end of a big run. We ran out of puff and they got a fantastic goal for them. And they go off into the moonlight with the points. We gave everything in that game to not lose it and ended up losing it in the last kick of the game. So yeah, it's time for revenge. You can sense that in Arteta's voice in the press conference that he did the other day. Yeah. let's go. We're tooled up to go now. And we can make really significant changes. I felt we got the team badly wrong.

1:34:50Elliot:Quite clear to me that they push on their full-backs and have a narrow midfield, roll their centre mids in, we all know the score. They're quite combative in midfield. And I think there were periods in the game where we didn't count the press. There was a clip that Declan Rice was saying, and they got out of like three players, and Rice was saying, go get the ball, go get the ball. And we just left it to each other and they got through. We were not combative enough, you know, in the central areas. We need to be. But once you are and you can compete with them, you can create little transitions on them as well.

1:35:21Elliot:We are way better than them. You know, honestly, we are. We just need to go and do it. And it's time for us to give Villa something back they've given us, which is a little bit of pain. You know, so they're doing what they need to do. They're separating away from Chelsea and Liverpool. They're getting a little gap there. They get themselves back into the top four. They've got Europa League football coming up soon. and Unai's a good coach. I've said it. I've never dismissed him as a coach. I think as a manager of Arsenal Football Club, he was the wrong guy at the wrong time. He didn't manage upwards, and the guy we got in afterwards can manage the whole club far better than he can.

1:35:56Elliot:But he understands football, and he's a good coach, and he's a more experienced coach than Arteta, and has won a lot more than almost anybody else in the league. So he's not to be mocked, in my view, but it's time for us to put him in his place. you know we don't want him dancing in the diamond club shaking everyone's hands in the executive room saying thanks for sacking me i've just done you six points in a month that can't happen and there's my team choice do you know what i mean yeah that's that's it that's how you got to be in football you got to be absolutely ruthless say this is not going to happen on our watch at home you know our home form is unbelievable it needs to really spark against be like so So I'm up for it, man.

1:36:35Elliot:I'd go today if I could. I'll keep you up. I'm really looking forward to it. I don't want to dismiss what it means to win 11 in a row. It's an incredible accomplishment, and they deserve all the credit in the world. And there have been some big wins over that time, including over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and over Arsenal at Villa Park. The last nine of them have been by a single goal. So if we're going to get criticized for making it too nervy, they are on the right side of a lot of one-goal games. And as we know, even when you play well, those one goal games can go against you. When you play poorly, sometimes they go for you.

1:37:09I do think that luck tends to run out. We're on one goal from our 9.23 non-penalty expected goals the last four games. So we would have been expected to score about nine. We've scored one. I mean, there are a lot of indicators that suggest we're rounding into the kind of form where our attack can click and that they have kind of been flying a bit close to the sun. And my hope is that those two things can converge. Yeah, as a final point, I'll just say, you know, when we lost to Villa Park, it is worth remembering our backline was Cal Fiore, Incappier, Timber, and White. And then Cal Fiore came off and Miles had to finish.

1:37:42So we finished with Miles, Incappier, Timber, and White.

1:37:46Elliot:Fullbacks. And I do think that our, yeah, I do think that our backline sets our identity and sets the tempo of the game for us. We are defined by that back four and certainly by the back four, the center back partnership of Gabby and Saliba. And if they start the game, I think that's a lift for the whole team. I think it'll be loud. I think they will be out for revenge. City don't play until Thursday. So we have the chance to stretch that lead, put the pressure on them. Of course, they're facing a Sunderland team that will be out. A lot of critical players lost. Another player, Ballard, is out for the game as well.

1:38:15So maybe not as hard as it might have been, but the key is that we do our job. This is a good chance for us to restore the pecking order and remind people where we belong in it and where they belong in it. And I think we can do it. And I think the form is starting to look more like a team that we recognize. Now we just need the goal, the scoreline to reflect that. So we'll have an instant reaction tomorrow with Phil and Paul and Clive from the ground and a main pod later this week. I'm going to go probably get sick in about 60 seconds so it's probably best to knock this one on the head Paul thank you very much woohoo Clive thanks thank you very much my name is Elliot Smith and assuming that I am still with us in a couple of days we love you and we will talk to you after Arsenal 10 Villanelle

1:39:27Hey, I'm Josh Spiegel, host of the podcast Lunatic in the Newsroom. If you enjoy journalism that drifts into mild panic, wild overthinking, and a guaranteed nervous breakdown, Lunatic in the Newsroom is for you. It's news like you've never heard before. The only newsroom with a panic button. You'll laugh, you'll cry, and gasp in horror as the show spirals completely out of control. It's not just news, it's emotionally unstable. Lunatic in the newsroom. Listen today.