Early Villa Thoughts, Transfer Endgame & Atleti View on Alvarez

40:27I don't know that Villa looked threatening enough not to trust Mascara, who looked great, and Ben White, who looked pretty good, versus bringing Kansa in with limited training with the team into a very emotional environment for him. But you disagree, so tell me why. Well, I disagree in the purest sense of it, in that I would start him, but I don't think anything you've said is wrong. I'm expecting the team that started against Coventry to start here, just with Kansa coming in for Mascara. And I don't think Mascara did anything wrong. I thought he actually looked quite good against Coventry but Conce was signed for a reason and that's to be our right centre-back with with William Saliba out injured and I think the whole point of signing him was that he's ready he's experienced he knows the league he can come in straight away play alongside Gabriel and you know for every new signing we make I write a little piece profile piece for us blog digging into their history style of play their numbers things like that some of his numbers were really good like genuinely really good he had the highest pass accuracy in the premier league last season he led the premier league for pass completion under high intensity pressure he also had the highest pass accuracy at the world cup this summer um and i think he had the best ground dual success rate of any other premier league player last season so we're we're signing a good defender here a good player i think he's more than capable to come in and start alongside Gabriel of course of course it's going to be difficult to go back there they will be on him every touch every pass every mistake will be under the microscope but the whole point of signing a Premier League proven Premier League ready player is that he is Premier League ready and that means Villa Park even if you just spent seven years there so I think Arteta will start him and it's not again it's not to have an issue with Mosquera or anything.

42:23I don't think he did anything wrong. I just feel like this is what we want to do. With Saliba out injured, it'll be constant, Gabriel. And you've got to start it somewhere, right? So I think that's where we will do it. Yeah. Any other changes in the lineup that you'd consider or contemplate or just run it back? No, no. I don't think we need to change anything. The midfield looked excellent. Why risk Bruno now? We've got a long season ahead. It was great having that. You wouldn't be tempted to start Alvarez? are we gonna sign him today um yeah no no i think yeah we're gonna sign him as soon as i hit uh we're gonna get the oren bomb the minute i hit stop literally that's yeah um no no other changes i think needed and obviously as long as fitness is supports that decision i i think we'd be fine so we'll just have to see fresh yeah yeah um and we've got plenty in reserve on the bench if we it so i i think it is for a very difficult fixture against a manager that doesn't like our club and a fan base that can be you know very create a really great atmosphere at villa park we're probably picking the right time for this fixture so much of a season is when you play you know i'll never forget was it 22 23 season after the queen passed and the city game got moved and it got moved to a time of the season where we were starting to fall apart and they were rampant versus the time when we were rampant like those little details when a game falls can matter so much over a league season and maybe this is the right time you could even say that about chelsea by the way because i know everyone was wowed by them against fulham but defensively they were awful and even in midfield they didn't look completely set so maybe playing them early as well could help us so yeah let's see but yeah i think villa park will be it's always a difficult game right but we look ready we look assured we look fit and I don't I don't see why we can't go there and get three points so yeah just push push at them because there's goals to be conceded by that team for sure and it looks like we're prepared to play that way so we'll see okay we're going to switch gears to the interview with Jeremy Barron from Into the Calderon and that Atleti podcast talk Alvarez in depth from the Atleti perspective I should mention by the way we drew Ipswich Town away in the League cup uh liverpool got tottenham which is funny city of course got their you know their championship opposition which is a contractual requirement uh so we'll we'll be facing them and then the champions league draws today i presume on friday night clive tomorrow tim and clive will cover the champions league draw in detail so plenty of that to come uh i'm gonna say goodbye to you phil goodbye goodbye that was great to have you back yeah i listened to the uh the the column with jeremy the segment with jeremy is really good so yeah enjoy yeah well and for those who haven't heard it it's coming up yeah i was out for patrons yesterday but it's out for everybody today because we love everybody but before we say hello to jeremy you're thinking how am i supposed to listen to an interview about ulean alvarez when i don't know how to start my e-commerce business and dear listener i can tell you how to start your e-commerce business you do it with shopify by now you should know this i have built shopify sites what i loved about them is i knew nothing about e-commerce.

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47:04Play it, debate it, collect it. The new Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer is now at McDonald's. Made with freeze-dried dragon fruit and made to lock in. The all-new Energizer, now at McDonald's. I am delighted now to welcome back to the podcast Jeremy Barron of that Atleti podcast of Into the Calderon and someone who has spoken to us a lot because we took their director of football. We played them in the Champions League multiple times, including the semifinal. Most of these conversations have not been Jeremy's favorite moment, but it is a pleasure for me to speak to someone as knowledgeable about his club as Jeremy is.

47:47And he's here with us again. Hello, Jeremy. How are you? Hello, Elliot. I am great. I always love the opportunity to talk to you. I wish we were talking about happier things well it seems like every time i talk to you and letty have lost someone or they're about to lose someone or they've lost a crunch clash it's miserable could i interest you in a victor yokres could i interest you in a gabriel jesus we've got all kinds of strikers for you listen don't tempt me with a good time now yeah well i'll tempt you i don't know if it's a good time but i'll tempt you with some time um with a time with a time you know what i just want to ask you super super quick because the last one of the the my favorite pods we did is when you You talked to us a little bit about the good, the bad, and the indifferent of Andrea Berta.

48:26From a distance, any observations about Berta, what he's billed at Arsenal? I mean, I think he's having a summer where there's been some questions about him, both in terms of messaging, how he operates, whether he's getting the job done. From a distance, do you have any thoughts as sort of an impartial observer who remembers his time at Atleti? Yeah, his time at Atleti was a bit hamstrung by a strange ownership structure, a strange boardroom structure, a different, sometimes difficult financial outlook. And frankly, there were times his talent ID just wasn't really up to par. He didn't always have a great understanding with Jolo Simeone, especially the past or the last couple of years he was at Atleti.

49:04But the squad arsenal built last year, I mean, hard to find much fault with it. They went all the way in the Premier League, almost went all the way in the Champions League. The depth that they accrued in both, this was before Berta's time there and during, but the depth that they accrued especially in defense is enviable to say the least and this summer i mean bruno gamaraj is a great player perhaps a slight overpay but that's the that's the going rate in the premier league what isn't an overpay right now in the right what is it an overpay yeah yeah i mean it's it's getting ridiculous marmouche savinho nico jackson like all the the trash from big clubs going for big money it's it's amazing look let's get into julian Alvarez thing.

49:43And before we talk about the arsenal of this, I want to get your emotional reaction to the treatment he received on the pitch the other day when he came on, the fierce whistling. Are you, is he firmly in the snake get out of my club category for you personally? Do you diverge from that sort of popular in-ground opinion? Where do you stand on him emotionally right now and the way this saga has been handled? For me personally, Elliot, yeah, he's in the doghouse and I would like him to leave the club. I've been pretty consistent in videos. I've done it and stuff I've written over the past couple of months.

50:17I've been pretty consistently in that camp of he spoke out in the middle of the World Cup to ask for a transfer. And as soon as he did that, you know, that's it. You cross the Rubicon. This chapter is closed for you. And the majority of Atleti fans at the Metropolitan on Sunday against Villarreal, they seem to share that sentiment. I think you'll find that to be a pretty popular sentiment around the Spanish-speaking Atleti fan base, international fan base. I mean, there are certain values that Atletico de Madrid have as a club, and Julian kind of trampled on those. So I think the reaction—well, it's never nice to hear one of your players whistle.

50:55If I had been in the stadium that day, I would not have whistled him. I would have met him with indifference. It sucks on a human level. And sometimes we're all guilty of divorcing the human aspect from the football aspect of this sport. From a human aspect, no, it's not nice. But he's reaping what he's sown here. Yeah, I mean, the thing I would say is like it is exactly the kind of passions that football inflames that makes it such a special sport that gets under our skin and we can't get it out. But it is those passions that sometimes lead us to behave in a way we wouldn't necessarily have imagined ourselves behaving.

51:28Having said that, look, whistling or booing, it's part of sport. you know just ask Philadelphia Eagles fans who booed Santa Claus once but like and to be fair Santa knows what he did he deserved it but I guess what I would say is has that response in a way made the situation more challenging for Atleti the club went big today saying that they could not sell him to Barcelona and retain their dignity that there's a zero percent chance so I guess what i would ask you do you feel that there is any scenario where the window closes and alvarez is still an athletic player and that would be an acceptable outcome yeah i'll answer that in two parts is it likely that he ends the window as an athletic player yes it is i still think that's the most likely outcome even though we we have known of arsenal's interest for some time and especially recently there has been an escalation in arsenal's interest in alvarez is it a palatable or acceptable scenario.

52:27Not especially. For Adleti, at the club level, sure, he's in the middle of a six-year contract, Elliott. He's signed to 2030 with a 500 million euro release clause. At this point, everyone knows the terms of Alvarez's contract because it's been talked about so frequently. Adleti are, I wouldn't say delighted to keep him, but the most straightforward logical thing is that he stays because he signed this contract to be the face of the club, to be the franchise player in a manner of speaking. And he should adhere to the terms of his contract and fulfill his contract and honor his contract. And he doesn't seem particularly inclined or interested to do so, which is why you see a lot of Atleti fans say, oh, he's got to leave.

53:04He has to go. Even at this late stage in the window, even if Atleti can't sign a world-class replacement, there are certain principles and certain values and a dignity, as you said, as Atleti said today in its latest statement about Alvarez, there is a certain dignity and a certain set of principles that you cannot trample on. And Atleti as a club cannot sell him to Barcelona, lest they risk the greatest embarrassment in the history of the club. So can I ask you, can I just stop you there? Yeah, you believe there is absolutely a 0 % chance as the club said that he goes to Barcelona, like if you had to put everything in your bank account and your life and everybody's life on it?

53:40Is there any world where you see him going to Barcelona? Do you think that door is completely fully closed? and it is not a possibility that he winds up there. Not a possibility, 0%. That door has been shut for three months. So, and Alvarez and his agent and his entourage, they seem to be the last people to realize it. Alvarez's agent, Fernando Hidalgo, and I'm sure we're going to talk about him in a little bit, but he's become public enemy number one among Leti supporters this summer. And there's just been all kinds of stories. The club has repeatedly characterized them as lies and half-truths.

54:13That's the reasoning they gave. as to why they shielded Alvarez from the south stand of the Metropolitano on Sunday so that they wouldn't, you know, throw stuff at him. I guess that's the worst case scenario. But man, it's just been such an exhausting saga for everybody. And the biggest reason why is that there has never been a chance that he would be sold to Barcelona. Absolutely not. Atletico were never going to sell him within the league. Atleti have repeatedly refused to sell assets as high price as Alvarez is valuable as Alvarez within the league unless the buying club triggers his release clause.

54:46And Alvarez's release clause would equate to the largest transfer in football history by a mile. Yeah. I want to talk about the player as a player, but I do want to get the transfer stuff out of the way up top because I think this is obviously the most pressing matter. Look, I believe that Arsenal's interest is real. Mikel Arteta has really loved this player. I think he really impressed when he played against us and managers tend to take notice of that. I think the Arsenal interest is real. As I understand it, Julien Alvarez is extremely close to his extended family and visa issues mean it could be difficult for his extended family to come to England and that would be a concern for him.

55:23I think the idea that's been planted in the Spanish media is from Barcelona friendly media that he's turned down Arsenal, he refuses Arsenal, he only wants Barcelona. Do you think that that is just your sort of typical Catalan club-friendly media trying to make this harder for Arsenal and easier for Barcelona? Yeah, absolutely. This is the Barcelona media playbook playing out in live time. Elliot, I mean, fans of other clubs in Spain, Athletic Club last year with Nico Williams, for example, Espanyol with Joan Garcia last year before Barca bought him, they're very familiar with how Barca go about making transfers.

56:02It's all about unsettling the player, causing uncertainty in the player, promising commissions, promising favors, and promising the sun, the moon, the sky, and the stars to a player and his representatives and his family. And Alvarez is unfortunately the latest to fall for that. This is a very standard Catalan media. For what it's worth, my personal understanding and belief as well is that Alvarez would love to play for Barcelona. I think he's always wanted to play for Barca. But if that was the case, why did he join Atleti first? You can't use Atleti as a springboard to get there. I don't think the door is shut for Arsenal, though, precisely because Atleti have been so steadfast and so consistent in telling him and telling Fernando Hidalgo that your client is not going to go to Barcelona from here.

56:46If he wants to go to Barcelona, he can go somewhere else first. So, and there's obviously a world where I think Arsenal might say, hey, we'll sign him on a three plus one. And after two years, there's a release clause of 60 million or 70 million, something very reasonable where he can go to Barca. And we get those good years out of him. We help him win us the Champions League and off we go. But setting aside that sort of fantasy scenario I just laid out, in terms of how that deal might work, would it be appealing to you as an Atleti supporter, if you know Alvarez is going, to potentially have a Yoko rest come back the other way as part of the compensation for the move?

57:27yeah that is appealing to me i like gilchris i think he is a maybe a bit of a question mark i know he's definitely polarizing among arsenal fans and among among atleti fans too but i think he's a good player he's a good forward a bit clunky at times and some of the metrics don't love him but other metrics do love him and he was arsenal's top scorer last year i think he is a better version of alexander serloth who has i agree with that i agree with a lot of goals for atletico but has has struggled at times for consistency uh a serloth who presses does a tremendous amount of off ball work and scores goals that's a player who will do really well under cholo simone so yeah gilchrist and let's say 80 to 90 million yeah i'd do that and i think i think arsenal fans would as well by the way i don't want to speak for every arsenal fan listening to this because uh there's to your point he's polarizing and there's going to be a difference of opinion well stay here just for a second so if it's if it's gilchrist coming in and and And Alvarez going the other way.

58:25I mean, the other thing you could argue is you might be getting one over on Barcelona who have been lightly rumored to be interested in Jokras himself. So there could be a two-way benefit there. But let me ask you this. I think there are some Arsenal supporters that are wary of signing Alvarez on the basis of wanting Barca and pulling a sickie at training and, you know, the way he's behaved in this that they're now questioning character. But prior to this situation, everything I understand is that this is a hardworking, dedicated, down-to-earth family guy who just works his ass off playing football.

59:00This is a guy who carried a lot of water for Messi in the Argentina team, did all his running so Messi didn't have to, who's won a Champions League, who's won a World Cup. So prior to this saga, any indication whatsoever that there were red flags around personality or character with Alvarez? Generally speaking, no. And that's why this has been kind of surprising for a lot of us, the way that Alvarez has gone about this and how poorly he's been advised and how he has listened to every bad piece of advice he's received. I will say that this past season, whenever Alvarez was asked about his future, certainly after, let's say, October, November, he would give really kind of strange, circular answers after I'd let him beat Spurs in the Champions League round of 16, after the first leg.

59:48Well done. Nice. Thank you. We conceded five goals, which I didn't like, but knocked Spurs out. That's what matters. Yeah. It's Tottenham. The history of the Tottenham. It's the history of the Tottenham. After Adleti won the first leg, Alvarez was asked about his future, and he said, well, I don't know. I could be here next year. I could not. Who knows? No one can read the future. A month later, before we were going to play Arsenal, he was asked about it again at a press conference. He said, I don't really want to talk about those rumors. They just turned into a snowball of lies. I'd rather focus on the team, which was another kind of a non-answer, kind of always leaving the door at least a little bit ajar for interest from Barca.

1:00:26So there was some concern from fans about that, but I think a lot of us gave him or tried to give him the benefit of the doubt because we know he has a long-term contract and he signed for Atletico ostensibly to be the face of the new project. So imagine the betrayal that a lot of Atleti fans feel amidst those comments and amidst the commitment that he signed to play here. Yeah, look, Arsenal went through a generation of this happening after we made the Emirates move post-Invincibles under Arsene Wenger when we were in the joint ownership era or dual ownership era and didn't have the money to spend and lost Nasri and lost Fabregas and lost Van Persie.

1:01:06And I will say, Las Fabregas in a way that is how you lose players to Barcelona, right? A campaign. Very similar. Undermined. The player being told to do things that maybe weren't in their best interest in terms of their public perception and burn bridges. So we can certainly sympathize, Jeremy. We've been down that road with Barcelona in particular. I think it's also quite funny that they also bought players like Alex Song from us, which works for me. but um let's let's talk about the player as a footballer though because ultimately arsenal need to add to the attacking you know to the attacking group to the front line and i think there are people that think an upgrade on york rest would be valuable but whether they think that an upgrade on york rest would be valuable or not it appears that martinelli is going to saudi arabia and it appears that numerically we need to add one more high quality player um whether this can happen or not i'm curious to get your take on alvarez the player it seems like Two seasons ago, he was a 17-goal scorer.

1:02:05This past season, his goals dropped off, but it seemed like he was playing more as a support striker, and he was tremendously creative. His creativity numbers and his passing numbers came up. So do you want to maybe distinguish those two seasons, how he's played for Atleti, and how his game evolved in terms of what he was providing? Yeah, Alvarez is a brilliant player. He's a complete forward, one of the most complete players in his position in world football. How's he ranked for you up there? You've had Griezmann. You've had some really elite top players. How's he rate for you among some of the top tackers you've had?

1:02:35I mean, he's not Griezmann, but he's a different player than Griezmann. I think when Letty first signed him, there was a thought process of, okay, he's Griezmann's successor. He's going to take the reins and lead the team, and he's going to have that character and that personality and that leadership. It hasn't really been the case, especially this past season, when he went through a really nasty goal drought in the league. That, looking back, might have been influenced by some of these siren songs he was hearing from Camden out. Interesting, yeah. As a player, though, Alvarez can do everything.

1:03:02His off-ball and pressing metrics are off the charts. His work rate is incredibly high. He's a really good finisher. 29 goals in all comps his first year, 20 last year. 10 assists as well. Very creative. Not the most technical player. I think that's where I would differentiate him from someone like Griezmann. Griezmann's technique is way better than Alvarez's. but the match intelligence is fairly high. He's underrated strength, great lower body strength. I think we saw that when you guys played us. I mean, he bullied our back line at times, which you don't see happening and we have big, strong back lines.

1:03:37Right. Gavin Allen Saliba, you don't bully those guys. Yeah. And Alvarez, especially in the first leg before his ankle gave out, he was everywhere, did everything. Alvarez in that form, he's unplayable. I mean, this is why Letty spent nearly 100 million to sign him and why they're demanding 150 to let him go. The problem last year was, yeah, there was a bit of a role change. He was playing a bit further from the box. More often, his partner was Serloth, and Serloth is a pure nine, a pure target man. That kind of player has never really thrived under Cholo Simeone, but he was also the only source of goals for a large chunk of last season when Atleti were still trying to compete on multiple fronts before the month of February when they just said, screw it, we're going to go for the Copa, we're going to go for the Champions League.

1:04:20So with Serloff as his partner, those two didn't really have never really coexisted. Serloff kind of takes up Alvarez's oxygen. Alvarez gets a little frustrated. He's not as influential away from the box. There was also some difficulty coexisting with Alex Baena, who was our star signing last summer, the top tier playmaker from the Real. Just won the World Cup with Spain. Baena and Alvarez couldn't really play together. So that caused some a puzzling mix of attackers and just some some confusion there. Baena was in and out of the lineup. Griezmann was in and out of the lineup to start the season.

1:04:53And the figure of Serloff, who is just not really the kind of forward with whom Alvarez is compatible, that plus his downturn in form, which there are a number of reasons why that happened, it added up to a pretty poor league season by Alvarez's standard. But he was great in the Champions League. That's where you saw who he truly is. Yeah, and I mean, if you want to argue that some of it is related to thinking about his move to Barcelona, no place like the Champions League to show the world what you've got versus the league campaign. One interesting thing, I think, with the interest in Alvarez is the question of how he fits our build.

1:05:30Because, look, I don't think we can go into a season after Kai Havertz just played like 590 or something league minutes last season and say, well, we'll just get rid of Yocrest and have Kai play striker all season. Great, yeah. Do that. There's no way that can blow up in your face. He's never heard or anything. Yeah, it's not like we didn't finish the season before last with Kel Marino playing striker. And by the way, maybe the best striker in the world, but that's another story. So I guess, look, there's no question that Kai Havertz plus Julian Alvarez is a really, really attractive group of center forwards that you can use in whichever way you see fit.

1:06:04But as much as we're, I'd say, impressed by and optimistic about what we're going to get from Christos Solis, Christos Solis is still a player that we're not certain what the level is off the left. And Gabriel Martinelli is gone or about to be gone and Leo Tchard is gone. So the question is, could Julian Alvarez potentially play off the left for Arsenal, a position that has traditionally allowed the players some freedom to drift inside, to play more in the half space, not a touchline winger role at Arsenal at all, the way Solis looks like he's playing and the way Leo Trossard played it. How would you feel if Arsenal's plan was to use Alvarez off the left a lot?

1:06:43How do you think that fits for him? I think he could do it. I mean, one of his greatest traits is that versatility, to lead the line himself, as an out-and-out center forward to play off another number nine, to play off a bigger center forward. And he can also invert and play as a midfielder. He played kind of in a, how would I describe it? It was an unorthodox number eight role under Guardiola at City. And when Haaland was injured his last season there, he got a lot of time in that role. And that's when everyone could really see what Alvarez was capable of, the full range of his abilities, the passing especially.

1:07:21He's been more of a finisher at Atleti, but he's still a very good passer. His passing metrics look really good when you look at the advanced metrics. They're really solid. Yeah, they really do. He had 20 goals and 10 assists in all comps last season despite that nasty downturn in form. Yeah, Alvarez could do that, especially with the way Arsenal like to pack the middle and the way Arsenal just caused so many problems for opponents by strangling them that way. Yeah, the press. I mean, he's going to be really good from that standpoint, right? Vital, vital. Yeah, that's the number one reason to get him.

1:07:51It's both Havertz and Alvarez and the press together. Oh my God, that's great. That's great. And so, I mean, the support striker thing is an interesting thing because I don't know that we're built to play with a support striker per se. I mean, we really have, at least when it's Miles, Rice, and Odegaard, it's a more traditional midfield three, a six and two eights, or two sixes and eight, or if you don't want to give them numbers, it's just sort of a three, however you want to position them. you're not going to play Alvarez that way I would think so when you were using him as a support striker what was the kind of midfield construction around him depended on injuries had let he had a lot of injuries in the first half of last season and we played most of the second half without our best midfielder and our best player overall Pablo Barrios if we had had him against Arsenal I think we would have beaten you guys no disrespect if we had Barrios we weren't playing our best football at that time and we didn't have our best group out there either so I think yeah it's kind of ironic that we made the Champions League final at a period of time when we were not playing our best football, you know, because I would flip it around and say if we played you with the group we had in the form we were when we played against Bayern or Atleti earlier, we might have stomped you, right?

1:09:01It's when you catch teams and who's available, but yeah, carry on. Sorry. No, it really is. Alvarez never really got the free role that, say, Griezmann was entrusted with. Griezmann could pop up anywhere and everywhere in his own half in the center of the park. in the penalty area. Alvarez never really got that role. I wouldn't say his role was limited, though. Largely, he would be playing in front of a midfield, too. So, Koke and Pablo Barrios, Koke and Johnny Cardoso, etc. And even Alex Baena, sometimes. There was a brief portion of the season after Atleti acquired Adamola-Lukman, where they were playing more or less a pure 4-3-3.

1:09:39And there was a lot of fluidity, a lot of movement there. I really wish we would have gotten more time with Griezmann-Lukman and Alvarez together, because I think that trio was really, really good. Three very high quality and really intelligent. And how was Alvarez playing in that group? Was he playing wider? Was he just kind of getting close to - More through the middle. Through the middle. Through the middle. And it was a 4-3-3, but just with narrow, a narrow front three, Lukman off to the left and the other two sort of narrow? Which is how I wanted Leti to play for a long time, but the recruitment has never really matched up to that idea.

1:10:11And last year it finally started to. So Griezmann would kind of serve as sometimes as a midfielder and advanced playmaker. Other times he would be as a winger. Other times he'd be a forward, a strike partner. So it was really, really interesting dynamic with those three. But yeah, Alvarez would play through the middle in that circumstance. But he has also played off the left at Atleti. He's played behind Serlo. He's played behind a number nine. He's a player who can just serve you in a lot of ways. and it's just the off-ball work that is so impressive about him and makes him such a perfect modern forward.

1:10:43Arteta player. Yeah. I mean, he'd be a great fit there. Yeah. And I do think that Simeone and Arteta have some similar DNA philosophically in terms of the kind of work off the ball they want their players to do. So if he can thrive for Simeone and if he can thrive for a Pep, you're not going to get much better DNA football-wise than that because Arteta is probably some kind of hybrid of those two in terms of his mindset. Yeah. look, fans know their players better than anybody knows their players, right? You watch him, you write about him for Into the Calderon, you podcast about him on that Atleti pod.

1:11:15So you're obsessed about these players. If you had to wake up tomorrow and be the fan of another team, and that team said, we wanted to spend 140 million on Julian Alvarez, is Julian Alvarez 140 million pound player? Yeah. Okay. And just the market being what it is, I guess there are two components of this. The market being what it is, this summer has been insane, especially players coming in and out of the Premier League. You guys lost out on Morgan Rodgers because Chelsea paid an insane, an obscene amount of money for him. $117 million just happened to be$1 million more than Elliot Anderson.

1:11:48Crazy, huh? I mean, the Elliot Anderson fee, the Boati fee that City just paid. God, Savinho and Marmouche, that double capture for Spurs. Insane. Yeah, Tenali at$100 million. I mean, these are insane. Nicholas Jackson. Yeah, yeah. Nicholas Jackson, 65 million quid. I mean, he was linked to Atleti, and I think Jackson would have been a good fit at Atleti, but not for that price. Oh, my God. In this market, yeah, Alvarez is worth what Liverpool paid for his sack last year. Even though Barcelona fans with whom I debated, they commented on my videos because I guess they had nothing better to do. One of the tropes that I hear is you're debasing Alvarez by saying he had an eight-goal league season.

1:12:28Why on earth would you not sell him to us for$100 million? because one season does not a player make. Everyone knows what Alvarez is capable of, and it's a fallacious argument to say that you're not, so you should sell him to us on the cheap. If Isak can go for$150 million, Alvarez can absolutely fetch that price. And I think that's the only condition under which Atleti would sell him if they were guaranteed a club record fee greater than the one Barcelona paid by triggering Griezmann's release clause seven years ago. So in this market, yeah, with some of the prices we've seen this summer, Alvarez is definitely worth that.

1:12:59See, I like to hear that because if our club's going to invest that much, someone who's obsessed with this player and the club he's been at saying he's worth that, you know, because no one knows what their players are worth more than the people that watch them every single game, rewatch them every single game, obsess about them. and look one of the hard parts about selling a player of Alvarez's caliber at the end of the window is do you leave yourself enough time to bring something in and if Arsenal provide an opportunity to bring in a Yoko Ress and it's someone that Simeone likes and it's someone that you think is at the level that he can help your club look I'm not going to sit here and pretend he's at Julien Alvarez's level he's not but if that if that's a ready-made replacement you can bring in with a net profit that you could apply to something you do in January or something like that, then maybe that makes us a better trading partner.

1:13:48I've heard latent rumors of a Chelsea interest. So let me at least just ask you this. I mean, we know Chelsea will spend ridiculous money. If Alvarez thinks, all right, I'll go somewhere else for a couple of years, then go to Barca at 28 or 29, and Barcelona don't seem to have any problem signing players at that stage of their career. Is he going to go not play Champions League football? If he's going to go back to England where he doesn't seem the most inclined to be and he's going to go somewhere not Barcelona is he going to go do it to not play Champions League that strikes me as unlikely unlikely yeah I I know there's been some chatter I don't know how credible it is that yeah Chelsea would want to bid for him and Chelsea are involved in everybody I mean how many players are on are on Blueco's books yeah not to mention that Jackson is going somewhere else and if you know and if if Liam Dillap I mean nobody wants him but he's gone like Liam Dillap how they make a profit on him.

1:14:42He's won goal last year. The magic ingredient is crime. But yeah. So I don't buy that. I guess, look, as a final point on this, I'm going to ask you to plant a flag a bit. You've told me point blank he's not going to Barcelona. If you had to put a percentage odds on him staying at Atleti or landing at Arsenal, what percentage? I'm going to assume you're at 0 % for Barca, yeah? Just put it at 0. So if it's 0 % for Barcelona let's say the Chelsea thing's not realistic it feels like if he's going to go it'd be Arsenal because I don't see another landing spot that provides the things you need and maybe you have a striker going the other way give me a percentage stays at Atleti versus goes somewhere but let's say Arsenal for the argument's sake well it's interesting because I kind of anticipated this question when you asked me to come on yesterday I was kind of anticipating that he gets something like this and if we'd done this yesterday I would have said probably 90-10 that he stays at Atleti.

1:15:41Now I think the percentage is higher. There was a report in Marca today, one of the two big Madrid dailies that covers Atletico. One of their most reliable reporters, David Medina, said that starting on Monday, Alvarez began to consider Arsenal as a genuine option. And it was prompted by the reception, the backlash he received against Viral. His family didn't come to the game at the Metropolitan. That was a kind of a warning flag, a kind of a red flag. His family comes with him everywhere. This is one of the reasons why he's a bit hesitant to go back to the UK. because of the visa restrictions, he can't take everyone with him.

1:16:12However, it seems that Alvarez and his agents are finally starting to realize, wow, they're really not going to do me a solid and sell me to Barca, which, no, we're not. Yesterday, I would have said 90-10. Today, I would say probably 70-30, which is quite a big jump for 24 hours. I think there is a shot that Arsenal can do this. Do I think it's the likeliest scenario? As of today, with a week left in the window, no, I don't. But if Arsenal can do the legwork in the next several days, my my opinion Elliot is that Arsenal and Atleti have had the framework of this in place for a while uh not not just a week or two months I think I agree with that business with Arsenal for months I fully agree with that by the way let me ask you I guess a little question then about the dynamic do you know if the relationship with Berta ended in a positive enough way that he can walk back into those hallowed halls of the Wanda Metropolitano and and do business there or is or Or is that going to create an additional challenge for this transaction?

1:17:10It doesn't seem like it's going to. I think the relationship there is cordial. I got the sense last year there was maybe some bitterness on Berta's part, which I would have understood. He tried to fight Simeone on the pitch. He did. Semi-final. I was also going to mention that. Come on. What are we doing? Yeah. Simeone was about to slug him. That was really, really nasty. There would only be one winner, let me tell you that one. Yeah. Yeah, I would agree. but it was it was kind of funny last summer to see you know we were linked with in copy for a couple of years berta signs him we were linked with zui mandy for a couple of years berta signs him we were linked with gilchrist for a while berta signs all that's what happens when you're going to our your director of football goes somewhere that other club's going to sign all the players you were linked with yeah exactly and at let he for a few years ago at let he had a preferential option on gimrayish that they declined and that's why he was able to go to i think leon right and then he went to newcastle and now he's ended up at arsenal because berta knows him.

1:18:03That being said, I get the sense this would be a fairly cordial negotiation between Berta and Matteo Alamai, who was his replacement at Atleti. And again, Alamai was in London last week, ostensibly to meet with Chelsea about Nico Jackson. We now know Jackson's going to Aston Villa, almost certainly. But you don't just go to Chelsea to negotiate alone for Nicholas Jackson. You're making a personal appearance to do something else. And I get the sense that that was a chance to reaffirm the framework of this deal between Arsenal and Atleti for Alvarez. Alvarez has to sign off on it, though. And where we also have to understand this, speaking of the human aspect of football, is that Atleti cannot force Alvarez to go somewhere he doesn't want to go.

1:18:44There are some Atleti fans who want to send him to Saudi Arabia, but he's not going to go to Saudi at this point in his career. We can't force him to go to Arsenal, which is fine. That is his right if he doesn't want to go to Arsenal, but he certainly isn't going to Barcelona. But yeah, I think the framework has been in place. If Alvarez gives even the slightest encouragement, this will be done quickly. What's your point about players that you've been linked with? I mean, to the extent that Berta liked Jokras enough to bring him to Arsenal, he probably liked Jokras before he came to Arsenal when he was at Atleti, which means Atleti must have some familiarity with him from the time Berta was there, and some scouts there or people there may feel positively about that player from the legwork that was done at that time.

1:19:20So it all sort of makes sense. there's obviously one little problem which is the player has to agree to do it so as a very very final point is this a situation where if he stays Atleti will be perfectly content to stick him in the reserves and say we can't put you on the pitch you're going to get whistled every time you go out you're going to play in the reserves and you're going to accept being sold somewhere where you're willing to go but it won't be Barca or you're going to stay in the reserves I mean is that outcome conceivable or is there a detente that could be found out I feel like Simeone might be willing to find a detente, but Simeone can't tell the fans how to feel and can't tell the club establishment necessarily how to feel.

1:20:01So is there a detente possible or no? Yeah, the club's got to listen to their fans. And the fans have made their thoughts on Alvarez pretty clear. But it also isn't in Simeone's way to send a player to the stands or send him to the reserves. And he has talked of Alvarez all summer as he needs to stay. He's one of the best attacking players in the world. If he stays, we're going to build around him. and if he stays at the club we're going to find out how much that is posturing or not the makeup of atleti's fixture list actually kind of funnily might help alvarez atleti have only two more home games between now and the end of october and one of them is three games at home i'm sorry one of them is madrid derby in a month's time so atleti play osasuna at home before they play real madrid that'll give the fans one more chance to jeer him and whistle him and do whatever but come that weekend against real madrid everyone's going to be focused on the derby because it's Real Madrid.

1:20:50We want to beat the piss out of Real Madrid. So that could give fans an opportunity to start like, all right, Alvarez is here. He might only be here for a few months. He might be here for the rest of the season. Who knows? Let's maybe try to have a thaw in relations here. It's going to be frosty. There's really no escaping that. But the outpouring of rage that we saw on Sunday, that it's going to be repeated, but probably not for very long. Do I think Alvarez can rebuild this connection and rebuild the bridge in the way that Griezmann did when he came back from Barca? Probably not. There's no such thing as an irreversible situation in football, Elliot, but this is pretty close.

1:21:27Alvarez has shown no contrition. There has been no effort to reconcile on his part, which he's not obligated to do. It's fine, but it's going to make the fans feel a certain type of way. I think it also depends on what Atleti can do in his last week of the transfer window. If Atleti can bring in a number nine of a really high level, that could give Simeone an out. And maybe you bench Alvarez. Maybe he becomes more of a squad player. And at that point, he gets pissed off enough to where in January he would accept any destination, like not just Arsenal or you would accept going anywhere just to get playing time again.

1:22:01I was going to say something else about this, but now I can't remember what it was. Well, that's OK. I had another really good point about this. I think you've made a lot of good points, and I think we've covered all the ground. A player you rate, a player worth the money, a player with no real current future at Atleti, no opportunity to go to Barcelona, and now with a big decision to make about how he wants to spend the next couple of seasons. but in your mind certainly one worth doing and we'll have to see if the club agree, if the player agree and if we can get it done. If not, then hopefully Arsenal will come up with something else.

1:22:36But Jeremy, what I know is that I have enjoyed speaking to you that I think everybody should check out Into the Cauldron, check out that AthletiPod to the extent that they are interested in that club. But it is a historic club. I hope that we see you do great things, just not against us this season and I look forward to the opportunity to speak to you the next time we either beat you in the Champions League or take a top player off you. Thank you, man. Great to talk to you. Really appreciate it, as ever. Yeah, thanks. Alright, well, that's going to do it for us today. Lots more to come. Don't miss Friday Night Live on, it says here, Friday, and everything else we have coming up.

1:23:11So without further ado, I will simply say we love you, and we'll talk to you after Arsenal 10 Villanuele.

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