Grading The Start to The Season

30:20I think it's a lot of fun there, going to Napoli and really dominating them. This has been a good start to the season. A - for me because of the Brighton game, but considering who's not available and considering the way we looked in the summer and what I thought would be our build-up to this season. I don't know that there's much more you can ask for. Yeah, yeah, I think so too. I completely agree. I think defensively we've looked good. Like you say, there's been a... maybe not looked as good going forward, but we've got the goals that we've needed to get and I think we've seen moments where you can see there are more goals in the team and in certain players than we're actually getting at the moment.

30:57We're through in the League Cup and importantly managed to rotate basically the entire team to go through in the League Cup. I think that adds value to that victory. Yeah, a good start, a dominant start, even though it was only a one-goal win in the Champions League. So all in all, we should be pretty happy. Imagine the Brighton game was the first day of the season and then everything else had followed after that. The order of things obviously changes how you feel about it all, but the mood would probably, over the last couple of days, have been really different. Yeah, I think the general vibe right now is going to be impacted by the last thing you saw.

31:38But when you start saying like, oh, no way win in Europe, a three no win over City in the Community Shield, a win over Chelsea, wins away in hard places we didn't get them last season, Sunderland and Villa. I've had a lot of fun the start of this season. It just so happens that we have three weeks to ruminate on the least fun moment of the season, to your point. Give me your grade for Mikel Arteta to start this season. It seems like the players have a little more freedom of movement where they want to go. He's had new parts he's had to integrate. He hasn't necessarily known exactly what he wants to pick because Bruno was injured to start the season and he had to bring Miles back in, which he did instead of defaulting to Zubimendi.

32:21He's had to make some big calls as of versus Solis. Like, I think it was the Chelsea game, right, where Solis had only played a half at Sunderland and then came back in for Chelsea. He had some big calls to make there. What do you make of his start to the season? Any tactical tweaks and use of the squad and how he's doing as our manager, which he will be for a while to come, by the way, because it looks like he has signed or is about to sign a new deal, which is not really a surprise. Yeah, I think that's an interesting question. I would maybe go like B plus for Michael Arteta. I wouldn't underestimate the difficulty of being impressive without William Saliba and being solid and still looking good without William Saliba.

33:04I think he should have done some things differently against Brighton the other day. I thought it was very strange not to make any changes at halftime with the team 2-0 down. But generally, I think he's used his squad pretty well. we knock on wood haven't had any injuries yet other than the existing ones that we came into the season with i think that will be a big question as the season goes on we've got this depth now will he use it to make sure that we don't get injuries to make sure that players don't suffer from fatigue i think we saw the other day declan rice looked tired and that needs to be avoided as the season goes on.

33:43But early on, we started the season with Muscara playing well. Konza came in, has played for the most part really well. Ben Wyatt, same thing. I'm pretty happy. I don't think he's done anything spectacular. I do think there's a bit more freedom for the players, but yeah, I'm pretty happy with the season from Michael Arteta's perspective. Without us playing any of the games yet where I would say, yeah, he's won us that game, or needs to win us that game yeah i mean i don't know what i would be asking him to do much differently i mean he didn't have much options at right back i think he got his rotation spot on for the league cup tie you know he didn't go with a strong team i mean anything any team he put out with arsenal right now is a strong team because we've got two strong 11s but you know he he got players out of the squad that needed time he's navigated the injuries the only way he can i mean You could ask about Eza versus Solis and the usage there, but I think he was vindicated in his decision to start Solis against Chelsea despite getting him off at halftime at Sunderland.

34:47And by the way, that's a move I praise. That Sunderland win, I think Mikel Arteta gets a big slice of credit for that. He managed that game really impressively in my mind. And if you remember, Solis got the yellow in the first half. He wasn't playing. That was Villa. Villa. I'm so sorry. Yeah, I don't know why. Sorry, the Villa game. Yep. he got that yellow in the first half and like I think there are scenarios where Mikel Arteta might have tried to get him to 60 minutes or 70 minutes he didn't he made that change and the one thing you can't do in that situation is go down to 10 men and give a Villa team that weren't really in the game a chance to get into it I think the change was the right one I thought he made some really good useful changes in that game that worked obviously when he brought Bruno in.

35:36That was the Sunderland game. He scores the goal that wins it. So that's what you want to see from a manager. Mikel Arteta is firing on all cylinders. And I do just want to say, Lewis, the fact that it looks like he is going to sign and he is going to stay, I think it's more important than any business we could do in the market right now because I don't want to be disrespectful to Arsenal. I think Arsenal is a wonderful club that's reasonably well run. But I don't think Arsenal are Brighton or Brentford. I don't think Arsenal have the kind of infrastructure where you can just swap out the manager and the machine runs efficiently.

36:09I think Mikel is the machine a bit. I think players want to play for him. They want to sign to stay with him. I think he knows how to get the highest competitive level out of his players. Whatever nits you want to pick with certain bits of his style, there's been a lot of change behind the scenes at the executive level, right? I mean, we've seen the director of football change, right? We've seen Edu come in and go and Andre Berta come in and go. And we've seen changes at the CEO level. We've seen changes with some of the people that are on the board and make key decisions behind the scenes. And I think we've maybe overstated a little bit the extent to which KSE on a day-to-day basis are weighing in on things.

36:53so I do think that Mikel Arteta is the glue um I you know I'm not gonna sit here and be like he's perfect that's not my point my point is I don't think there are a lot of managers running elite organizations that have this much influence control and responsibility over every aspect of success and that's a lot to wear and I think he wears it very well yeah and it's it's responsibility that he's earned as well right he didn't he didn't have that when he arrived he's accumulated it over time because he's earned it with the work that he's done so yeah I think completely I think it's really great news that he'll be staying uh Arsenal were mired in sort of mediocrity when he arrived and now we are the team that everybody's chasing at the top of the Premier League and and Champions League semi-finals final in the last two years I think there's every reason to be incredibly optimistic as long as Mikel Arteta's the manager.

37:53And I think if you look at the teams that have, for all the complaints, and I've had some myself, about the style of football and the ways of getting over the line. But if you look at the teams that have won the Champions League, competed for the Champions League, won the Premier League over the past, I don't know, 10 years, I think you see world-class attacking talent in every single one of those teams except as. if you look at the fact that we're starting in the season and it's like, or should we have Jollis or Eze playing on the left? Nobody else who competes for these things has a question like that hanging over them.

38:32Liverpool have spent how much money on Isaac and Eketike and Florian Wiertz? Manchester City, you don't even need to get started on who plays in that front three or fourth Manchester City. you somehow forgot Barcola for Liverpool too by the way yeah of course Barcola you could throw in like a Gakpo but I'm talking players like they've backed the club have backed the team the manager supported it with enormous amounts of money on individual players to raise the level I mean if it worked properly to raise the level of that team as high as possible and Mikko Artaya hasn't had that support and has still turned Arsenal, at least not financially, had quite that level of support.

39:20And you can, that's a whole other discussion. Like, has he had that financial support but he used it to focus on the midfield and the defence instead? Maybe. I lean more that way. Although I think this summer, this summer I think was the first time I feel like there was another move out there to make and we didn't get it done. In the past, I do feel like we spent sufficiently in the way the manager wanted us to spend. I would say this is the first summer I didn't feel that way. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. I think you can argue that for sure. But at the end of the day, I think the point still stands that every single team that we're competing with or that we would have competed with in the last 10 years for the trophies we're competing for have more talent in the final third than Arsenal.

40:01And he is the reason that that gap is closed. Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, I agree. And fundamentally, and it's tough, right? Because when you say, oh, Brighton are a machine that just keep running no matter who the manager is or Brentford is, I do think it is easier to get structures in place to use your resources to stay somewhere between 10th and 5th than it is to stay 2nd or 1st. And when you are Brighton, how many players out there in the world can be better than what you have or can replace what you sell? Whereas when you're Arsenal, the pool of players is just smaller. that can come in and raise Arsenal's level immediately.

40:44Yeah, it's just that when you have consistent effective structures behind the manager supporting the manager, obviously the manager looks better. When you don't, the manager looks worse. And you can look at Manchester United who turned through managers who were thought to be talented guys who wound up not being able to succeed there. Chelsea are a great example. I don't know how talented some of those managers were, but I think Xabi Alonso is a pretty good manager and he's struggling to get his hands around it right now at Chelsea, I think. because they're a weird organization. Liverpool were a good organization, good steady hand on the wheel.

41:16Klopp was there. He's one of the best managers of all time, in my view, but they built him an excellent squad and Slott came in. Steady hand on the wheel, good organization, great talent, won a title, started to lose some of that great talent. The organization faltered and he got sacked the next season. It was pretty remarkable. The biggest test of this is going to be City because, look, it's unpleasant to say that City are well run. I think two things can be true. I think City, allegedly have committed a lot of breaches of financial regulations to get where they are and continue to do so, allegedly.

41:49I also think they have some very smart, highly paid executives who are some of the best in all of football. I mean, it may sound obvious, but one of the things Citi do is just pay a lot for elite executive talent, pay a lot for the behind the scenes people that come in and really know how to run a high performance organization. And so City are a weird one because they've had arguably the best manager in the last generation in football. But I think they also have a really good effective structure and the financial might to go and do what they need to do to get their squad in the place it needs to be.

42:21We just aren't talking enough about doing Elliott Anderson, Enzo and Buati in one window. I mean, it's an absurd amount of money to throw at a problem in one window. Oh, we lost Rodri. We lost Bernardo Silva. Let's just buy three of the most sought after elite available midfield talents in world football in one window to augment a squad that was already the highest paid by wages in the world that already has the best striker in the world. Um, you know, after getting Antoine Semenyo in January. So organizationally, I think they are well prepared to support a manager as long as that manager is competent.

43:02I think Enzo Maresca, it's funny, everyone talks about, oh, Arsenal are favorites. If Enzo Maresca doesn't win the title, he's failed. He has the highest paid squad. He has the most backed manager financially. And he should win the title and he should win the Champions League. And if he doesn't, he's a failure. You know, I don't think you could say the same about Mikel Arteta, just looking at the wage bill, looking at where we are in the hierarchy. But what he's built has set him up for success. that's enough on Mikel I think what we should do is pivot to players the way we'll do this is we'll do a quick attack midfield defense um you know and we'll grade that but before we grade that we should grade your nutritional habits that's right it's brand time you're listening to this podcast so I know you've got a curious mind here's a helpful fact that you may not know yet drivers who switch and save with progressive save over 900 on average they make it super simple Pop over to Progressive.com, answer some questions, and you'll get a quick quote with coverage options tailored to your choices.

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44:41Bare Knuckle. Liverpool's own Darren the Gorilla Till goes to war with Cuban powerhouse Yoel Soldier God Romero. Plus, the Bare Knuckle Middleweight Championship of the World is on the line when the reigning champ Dave the Redneck Mundell defends against undefeated British challenger Jack the Meat Cleaver Colon. BKFC 94, Till vs. Romero. Watch it live only on DAZN. Sign up now at DAZN.com. So let's talk about AG1. AG1 is a habit. As a habit, what I love about it is I can feel good about putting one scoop in eight ounces of water every morning before the chaos starts. And I know that what I've done is good for gut health.

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46:20Drinkag1.com slash ArsenalVision. Drinkag1.com slash ArsenalVision. Do we know, Lewis? Is that enough of that? More than enough. More than enough, indeed. Okay, look, Lewis, let's start with the defense. We'll work our way forward. Actually, goalkeeper. A minus? Where are you at with Raya? The goalkeeping group. Yeah, okay. The goalkeeping group. Yeah, Kepa or Ipswich. Wow. Elan Melier, big impact. Yeah, David Uriah. I was about to give him a score out of 10. That's not what we're doing. Yeah, but A -. I don't think he was at fault for any of our goals that we've conceded. I don't love that Brighton scored two goals from outside the box.

47:10I don't love that they do. I mean, I don't love when Arsenal concede any goals. should he get to the one at the near post the first one he gets if you slow it down he actually gets a finger to it and the power beats him you can only see it on there's an angle see like I told you re-watching games you speed things up and slow things down I was curious about this you can if you slow it down to like.5 speed on the angle there's like a camera at ground level inside the goal or just behind the goal and his fingers move his fingers move as the ball goes past him. I think he just gets a little touch on it and it's not quite enough.

47:50I think a shot that is, we have a bias for near post shots that we say, oh, he should have saved that. Like for some reason we say at the near post, you shouldn't let a goal in, but your far post is fine. And I don't really understand why it is. And I think a shot that cracks in off the post that the keeper, But trust me, watch your back are slowed down. The keeper gets a slight touch on it. If that ball is an inch more inside the post, then he tips it around the post or onto the post. It's out for a corner, whatever. That's the gap. That's the difference between a save and not making a save. I think, I don't know, there's no good angle of like if Califuri and Gabriel are kind of obstructing his view as well.

48:40and I wanted to mention as well there's this stat that sort of got a lot of attention at the weekend he's got the for Premier League goalkeepers with more than with at least 100 goals conceded David Rye has the second highest proportion of all time for goals conceded from outside the box and I would contest like and then it was like oh is this a weakness like firstly yeah maybe because nobody's perfect but secondly I would contest that Arsenal and Brentford defend the penalty area better than over the last 10 years or five years when David Raya's been playing in the Premier League better than basically any other teams in Premier League history so of course he's not going to let him from inside the box because Gabriel throws his head in the way of everything that gets shot at from inside the box and Arsenal win everything in the air and there are bodies in the way and everybody's back behind the ball and we've also seen him save plenty of shots taken from outside the box too.

49:39A few weeks ago with Esteval. I would say at Sunderland. That saves sensational. So the Chelsea game late on, he holds on to the three points for us and at Sunderland, he wins us the three points as far as I'm concerned. Saved a penalty. You save a penalty. I mean, he saved a penalty and then throughout that game, there's a bit of it in the Chelsea game too. His ability to come and stop problems before they arise, like just come and claim and crosses. You know, there used to be like, I think some of the save stats reduce goalkeepers way, way too much to one part of their job. I would much rather have a goalkeeper who doesn't have to save a ball because he comes and stops a shot from happening than a goalkeeper stuck on his line who then maybe makes a few more saves a season but also lets a few more goals in because he's there waiting for a shot to happen.

50:33David Reyes stops us from having to concede shots. And I thought with his feet he was poor at Brighton on Saturday. But I also think that's not usually an issue for him. So yeah, I think the Brighton game was an off day for everybody. Like I say, for periods of that game at least. But I think he won us points against Sunderland and he won us points against Chelsea. Small solace too, but he saves that game from being 4-0 because he makes a really good save in the 90th minute when it just could have been an even uglier scoreline. So yeah, I changed my mind. He's an A+. I mean, I don't know what more you can ask for a goalkeeper.

51:06Saved a penalty to keep us, you know, get us a win at Sunderland. He saved an undeserved equalizer from Esteval against Chelsea to get us an important win there. Yeah, I'm all aboard the riot train. Okay, the defense. I'll go first here. I I am going to give our defense an A plus because in Timber and Saliba you have a case for the best right back in the world and the only player I think who can compete with him is Akimi and in Saliba I think you have the best right sided center back in the world and I'm not sure anybody can compete with him and both of them have missed almost the entire start to this season.

51:48And before Brentford, we'd conceded one goal to Chelsea. Konsek came in and essentially did everything you could ask a new player to do from the start. Ben White, who I didn't think had much left, did about as well as you can ask anyone to do under the circumstances. And Mascara did well in the limited time he had before he got injured. I think given the group that's available, I think Calafiore, apart from being a little bit, I don't know, maybe inebriated against Brighton, has been an important part of the attack, looking a little bit more difficult to stop and more dynamic. I think he's been excellent.

52:22And Gabby is the glue that holds everything together. I think given what's available, A +, you know, still the best defense in the league in my mind. And that's without two of the best defensive players for most of the season so far. Yeah, I find it hard to disagree, to be honest. I think maybe A. But I don't know where I'm knocking marks off for. I mean you can see three goals in a Premier League game if you want to give us markdowns for that you can yeah like it has I guess A plus I'm like that is perfect that's perfection and more or less and it hasn't been absolutely perfect I think I don't think Gabriel has been at his best but I think Gabriel has been good and Gabriel's good is on par with the best of any other centre back in the league anyway I think Califuri and White have been really important in attack in particular I thought Mascara was really good before he went down with his injury against Villa and I think Konza's come in and looked like he's played at Arsenal for two or three years already throughout his games so yeah Marley Salmon too if you want to throw Marley Salmon in there I think that's a nice little positive from the Ipswich game that Marley Salmon came in and played really well and looked at home so yeah I think I'll go with an A but you know nothing really to complain about Yeah.

53:45And if you want to use the OPTA data on expected goals allowed, Arsenal are first with four. Forrester next with 4.8. Liverpool are next with 6.1. So we're two. I mean, I don't know why you'd throw Forrest out, but let's throw Forrest out just for a second. we we are 2.1 expected goals clear of Liverpool and almost a full goal clear of Forrest in second I mean Manchester City are you know distantly mid-table by the way 3.3 expected goals allowed more than us so 7.3 to 4.0 like the defense is mostly responsible for expected goals I think allowed because that's not about how many goals you can see it's about the quality of the chances you give up and we are giving up the fewest good quality chances so i we've got the the lowest xg per shot in the league is against us the the lowest percentage of shots taken inside the box in the league is against us i think the lowest shots on target as well uh conceded is us it's yeah we we don't give much up at all yeah um okay so and by the way we're underperforming our expected goals this season which may not sound surprising people to go that's because we don't have talent and attack.

55:01I think it's worth noting, and when Giant Gunnar does his pod during this international break, we have historically not just overperformed XG, but massively overperformed XG during this Arteta run. It has been a consistent, reliable truth about Arsenal. If we just return to our sort of usual overperformance level, the attack is going to have a couple of breakout games coming. We just haven't been finishing chances at the level that we, and you might say, That's talent. But again, I'm telling you, traditionally, we overperform XG a lot. Okay, let's go to the midfield. What do you have for our midfield group as their grade so far?

55:37What's the... Is Odegaard part of the midfield? Yes. Yeah, I think it's a midfield three. We're talking midfield three. We're talking Rice, Zubi, Miles, Bruno, Odegaard. I don't know if Eza even is in that group anymore. Mikel Marino. Yeah.

55:56B plus. Okay. I think Declan Rice has looked good and then sometimes a little leggy. I think Bruno Guimaraes looked great and then really, really bad. I think Myles has looked pretty good without kind of looking spectacular. I think he's been good. And Martin Odegaard's been great. He probably takes us all up from a B to a B-plus single-handedly in that midfield for me. And then Mourinho and Zubemendi have kind of been tidy in the roles they've played. but I haven't really had much of a say. You've just had more right-back minutes than mid-year minutes. Yeah, I thought they were both really, really important.

56:35Villa Park in particular when they came on and we controlled that and saw the game over the line. But nothing that changed the course of the season. Odegaard's had a few moments like that already. He's just been really, really excellent. I think there have been a couple of games. Brighton was one and Villa was another one where Odegaard didn't look great. but when he's looked good he has looked head and shoulders above any other player on the pitch like he hasn't just been good he's been exceptional when he's been on it uh you know the man city game coventry chelsea uh napoli he was by miles the best player on the pitch and the most effective player and the most decisive player on the pitch uh you know it's a really really promising start the season and yeah so it's an order guard alone takes everybody up a bit i think everybody else has kind of been overall in the case of bruno a little bit up and down and then like rice lewis skelly kind of par for the course so far this season uh so again again not much i mean we've we've won seven out of eight games there's not going to be loads to critique or complain about but i think there's sort of decent but there's i i hope for more to come and i expect more to come more to come from some of these players yeah uh i'll say b because i have very high expectations for this being the best midfield in the league and i think it has had moments where it's sort of sparkled and popped and fizzed with that kind of quality and moments like brighton where it was simply below the level to your point bruno I think went wandering a bit, didn't get back in his hole in time.

58:14He's figuring out his role in this three. I think the dynamic of him and Odegaard is one that's one to keep an eye out for. Does it make sense in tough, combative away fixtures to have both Odegaard and Bruno with Rice? Or does your rest defense get unsettled if you're doing that? That's an interesting one. I think Rice, to your point, has been a 7.5 out of 10. But Rice is someone I expect to be a 10 out of 10. and that's not surprising by the way given his exertions in the summer and the speed with which he came back from that uh it sounded like you're saying you wanted to say on that front no i guess i would i just gonna say like i would compare that to kind of the gabrielle in defense right where like i said about gabrielle rice is seven and a half out of ten still has him as one of the best midfielders in the league yeah these performances yeah but you expect him to on his own be streets ahead of everybody else and be the standout player on the pitch going both ways all game long.

59:10And I don't think, like I said, it's the same with Gabriel. I don't think he's done anything wrong, but we know there are higher heights there that he could hit. Yeah, I think the interesting thing with Rice actually is we've kind of adjusted where he's playing a little more to the right, maybe a little deeper behind Odegaard. And I think that has been why we've seen some improved Odegaard performances when he can take up higher positions on the pitch. but I think the best Rice is a left half space player, right? He's a left-sided player. I don't know. I think he's best charging up and down, you know, on the piston, as Clive might say, in that left half space, dominating the left side of the field in both halves.

59:51I think that's where he's most comfortable. And I could be wrong. I guess what I had put forward, not as a disagreement, but as a kind of a thought on why this might be happening is does Declan Rice have the capacity to charge up and down for the next nine months that's a great point trying to like limit maybe the areas of the pitch that he's asked to have a massive influence over because the last couple of years have been so taxing on his body but if you're then going to have Cal Fiori and Bruno on that other side he he's gonna have to come all the way over yeah uh we'll see but look i mean fundamentally you know bruno won us a game already um so he hits points for that he's been injured hasn't fully integrated miles stepped in did well rice has been fine odegaard has had 10 out of 10 performances but maybe some 6 out of 10s in there i think it's still congealing the overall talent to the group is phenomenal.

1:00:53Have we gotten that one imperious dominant elite performance in the league out of them yet? I mean, I think they were really good as a group against Chelsea where I thought we dominated the middle of the park, but they had a weird midfield out there for that game. So I don't know. I think I'd say it's a solid B. I think it's a group where the ceiling is higher than what we've seen so far. And as these players get further integrated and fit, it's only going to go up from there. All right. Now the blockbuster part of this, the attack. I'm really curious to see what you have to say about the attack.

1:01:22sell sell sell sell no it's not by sell it's great so you gotta give it a great no i don't care i've changed the format that's how angry i am uh see you said earlier we're not grading on a curve but then i feel like with gabriel and rice i kind of have graded on a curve a little bit so i think i don't necessarily expect more from this attack but if i'm grading them against the best attacks around like a c plus yeah what give me give me a little rationale here c plus arsenal don't create enough chances i don't have a problem with not converting chances um i'm more worried when you don't create them and that's why i think similarly to you i'm not really concerned right now about pokai yosaka i think he'll be fine and i think actually if anything i'm kind kind of encouraged by the fact that he's getting into scoring positions, which wasn't happening so often the last couple of seasons.

1:02:27He's not finishing them, but I think if he gets in there enough, he will finish them. I like the kind of poachers goals that he's scored. I think the attackers relied in the first couple of games of the season on Ricciardo Calafuri joining it and creating things. It relied on Bruno Guimaraes unlocking the door at Sunderland. And we've not played many games yet where the attack is then asking the midfield or a defender to win them the game because our attack isn't winning us games. And I think that's naturally, I think that's a problem. Villa was one that the attack won for us. Chelsea, I thought the attack was really good that day and really dangerous.

1:03:10Other than that, it's been a mixed bag. I think Kai Havertz, kind of like Odegaard, has had a couple of 6 out of 10s. One or two games maybe even worse than that. And then one or two really good games. Coventry and Chelsea at home stick out to me as the really good ones. Villa and Brighton, kind of horrible ones. Saka, I love Bakayi Saka. And I think if Bakayi Saka, I'm really encouraged by these positions that he's getting into. He's playing on the shoulder. he is scoring a couple of poachers goals he's getting himself in the box he is too good to miss too many chances and players getting chances is my worry for arsenal not players finishing them to your xg point earlier uh you know something i mentioned again in the in the arse blog youtube video because finishing comes up as a stick to beat this arsenal team with you know we're not good enough we don't finish our chances we fixate on the one chance we had because we don't create enough chances is my thing and in 22 23 and 23 24 city missed more big chances than we did and they won the league in both seasons and in 24 25 and 25 26 we missed more big chances than manchester city and we finished above them in both seasons the team that creates the most chances will miss the most chances yes and score the most chances yes yes that is more the answer is always to create more chances, not to be more clinical.

1:04:44Teams can finish sometimes, and players can finish sometimes, and that is true for basically every player around. Erling Haaland misses the most big chances in the Premier League every single season. It used to be Salah. Yeah, because the hardest thing is not putting it in the net. The hardest thing is being there in the first place, getting on the end of it, battling with the defenders, getting your shots away, all of that stuff. That's harder than the final finish, which, if we're honest, involves a bit of luck. A bad goalkeeper, a bobbling shot. Martin Odegaard, hilarious, right? After one game this season, Martin Odegaard had as many goals in the Premier League or more than he had last season with that one against Coventry.

1:05:31It was the worst he will hit a shot all season. Finishing is not the answer. You can finish badly and still score. You need to create. And yeah, I think the onus is on our attack to create more chances and they don't do enough of it. They haven't done enough of it. So yeah, I think there's been, like I say, a couple of good games from Havertz. Some glaring misses from Saka in some otherwise pretty good performances and encouraging green shoots. Zolis has looked welcomingly at home in a couple of games and then worryingly out of depth in a couple of others and I think that's normal sort of bedding in and a new league and a new team new expectations and I mean they're they're the three that we're grading really because Mikul Oteta hasn't trusted anyone else Eberichie as a Noni Maduaka Victor Jokerez enough to play any sort of significant minutes i i'd say this right what you don't want you don't want missed chances to cost you a game right you don't want a game that you should have won one nil to wind up nil nil or you should have won two nil to wind up one one because you missed chances like what was the game where martinelli missed the back post it was it forest away yeah and like michael was really hung up on that like look you don't want missed chances to cost you games but as we've discussed on this podcast a lot if you get two chances in a game and don't convert them you shouldn't be like we didn't take our chances you should be saying we didn't create enough right the interesting thing this season though is we're underperforming xg and yet none of our misses have cost us anything because we won every game except brighton and the problem in brighton wasn't like oh we were one converted chance away from winning that game so it we haven't paid a price for it yet we are currently sixth in the XG table, according to OptaData.

1:07:24Brighton is number one, by the way. City, number two. We are two expected goals behind them. Brentford next. United next. What I'll say about United, though, they're about 1.4 expected goals ahead of us. They had like 4.7 expected goals against Ipswich or something like that. Almost all in the second half against Ipswich as well, like as the game opened up. Yes. So, you know, if you just normalize that to same standard, they're below. But it's Brighton, City, Brentford, United Sunderland. Interestingly, Liverpool, who everyone go, they knew how to strengthen an attack. They properly invested in attack.

1:07:57They have fewer expected goals than us. And fewer goals. They have put the ball in the net less times than Arsenal have this season. Chelsea, legendary attack. Look at all the attacking talent. They're distantly behind us in expected goals. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 places behind us. So, you know, whatever you think it is, however bad you think it is, it's probably not that bad and we have no set piece goals and and you know that I think that will standardize to some set piece goals I don't think it'll be like last season so there's some of that too my grade for the attack is a c plus um there are some things that I'm encouraged by I think Kai Havertz has largely been very very good and looked fit he wasn't good against Brighton but I do think we do this thing where we judge on whatever the last thing we saw is I think he's been good.

1:08:49I think Christos Solis has been good. Not a superstar, just good. But he probably isn't going to be a superstar. He's probably just going to be good. And a lot of people say, well, that's the problem. We don't have anyone who is going to be a superstar. Unfortunately, I don't think Ebreche Eze has been good. And I don't think Ebreche Eze's role in the team is clear right now. And I think when you have a player that can score a goal like he did against it was in champions league wasn't leverkusen leverkusen yeah when you've got who could score a goal like that when you have a guy who can score a hat trick in a game like he does against spurs you want to find a way to use a player that talent but that player has to be able to deliver consistently over 90 minutes not just in moments and so i think if he can come into the team more and really fight for a role that can elevate our attack for a team that needs more a goals from nothing and b chances i think he has the ability to provide both of those things but i I think Solis has been good.

1:09:41Victor Yokras, we probably just won't get into it. His role has been extremely limited so far this season, and I think that's probably going to continue for a while. The player worth focusing on is Pakayo Saka. Pakayo Saka is an interesting one because I think the analysis around him has been really poor, Lewis, in that there's a lot of this, he's not the same player he was talk. He lost the burst. He can't get by. But the funny thing is, this is where data can be helpful. Bakayo Saka is getting into all the right places. He is doing all the stuff you want him to do, at least statistically. He has an elite XG.

1:10:19I think he's in like the 92nd percentile for XG. He's around the 80th percentile for expected assist. He's beating players off the dribble. He's getting into good positions. In the Brighton game, there was one moment where Riot just kind of hopefully booted up the pitch. He ran right by the fullback, held him off, got control of it, and created a really dangerous move. My issue with Bakayo Saka is execution, and that's the part I don't traditionally associate with being a problem for him. I don't know that his decision-making has been elite, and I certainly don't think that his finishing has been elite.

1:10:47He's been shooting in the legs instead of giving the ball and not getting the last transition pass right, but I think Bakayo Saka is a player who will get that stuff right. If you want to make an argument he's not the same player, he's lost something, then you'd have to argue it by saying he's not getting into the dangerous positions, he's not getting into the places to hurt teams. And I don't see that, and the data doesn't show that. So for me, Lewis, if there's a star in our attack, not including midfield attackers like an Odegaard, if there's a star in our front three, it's got to be Bakayo Saka.

1:11:19And if you want some encouragement, I don't think it's that Saka has hit the level we want, but the encouragement for me is he's getting into the places and the positions and the situations we want to get him in, and I'm still willing to bet that that brings the results we want from him over time. That's where I'm at with him. Yeah, I agree. I don't think Bakayi Saka will be thrilled with his start to the season, but he's already got three goals. He didn't score much in the last couple of seasons, certainly not as much as he was scoring before. He's already got three Premier League goals. I think last season was seven across the whole season.

1:11:58It's a big improvement. It's a big jump. He's getting, like you say, he's getting on the end of things. I think he's getting inside the fullback more often. He's playing more centrally. And if he keeps doing that, he will score more goals. It's not just goals. He very nearly won a penalty at Aston Villa. He did win a penalty at Sunderland, which he converted from those runs inside the fullback. The two open play goals that he's scored so far this season, What I really, really like about those is those are the sort of bread and butter easy ones. If you make that run, if you cheat inside your left back and react quicker to the left back when the ball's on the other side of the box, you will score five to ten easy goals every single season as a winger.

1:12:50Tap-ins. Robert Perez used to do it all the time. so many of his goals would come from just arriving in the six-yard box for a tap-in at the back post. Saka, I don't think has scored anywhere near enough those number of goals for Arsenal. He's got a couple of them already this season, so I think that's a really good sign. I wonder, in the absence of a superstar attacker, if his game is becoming more focused on scoring goals because Arsenal need players to step up and score more goals. I'm sure he'd have been disappointed with his output the last couple of years. And maybe that's him. Maybe he's looking at that as a thing he needs to improve on.

1:13:32Look, good. If he's hungry for goals, he'll score more goals. And the sort of miss at Sunderland where I think he's caught in two minds, should he kind of try to knock it down, lay it off for Havertz or go on his own? It's a bad miss. There's a bad miss against Brighton the other day, although I think the ball is kind of behind him. and I wondered at the time. I don't know. You can't tell from the angles if Odegaard could have found a way to find the pass to him instead of Saka Amit to go for a rebound, which was behind him and bouncing and on his right foot. I don't think he hit it well, but I don't think it was an easy chance.

1:14:07There was the chances, obviously, the couple of them against Napoli that he'll be really disappointed with. But if you put him in that position again, I do not think he would miss. So yeah, if he keeps getting in the positions, we're looking for somebody to score 20 goals for Arsenal this season and he is by far the standout candidate to to do it and what I've seen so far this season is a guy who's missed a couple but has also scored a few and I think I'm pretty relatively confident like you if he keeps getting in those positions and keeps getting those chances he will score plenty of goals for us yeah I'm inclined to think that's right.

1:14:49Well, let me just ask you this before I give a little more of my opinion here. Do you see a reduction in his burst or a reduction in any aspect of his physical capacity that is worrying you?

1:15:07I don't see any. I wonder what I see. I don't know. I think when he squares his fullback up one-on-one there was a couple of moments against Brighton the other day there was a moment that sticks out to me in the second half in Naples I think he hit the side netting when he squares his fullback up one-on-one and he kind of shuffles and then he goes he still beats his fullback almost every time I don't see him being slow over the first three or four yards. You mentioned that there was that long ball from Raya and he was about 15, 16, 17 minutes into the game on Saturday. Raya plays that long ball forward and Saka uses his body and holds the defender off and drives us upfield.

1:15:53Maybe he's not the you know, he hasn't got Martinelli pace running in behind, but he's also never had Martinelli pace running in behind. I think he's quick without being rapid and And I obviously with the injuries and especially the hamstring, I've wondered over the last year or two, hamstring and Achilles, like if you're going to talk about explosiveness, there are two awful injuries to have. I've wondered a lot over the last year or two if he's lost some of that. And I keep coming back to, I think maybe he has, but I don't know that. And is it just confirmation bias? and is he so markedly different that it's definitely true no so you know maybe he's lost five percent maybe he's lost a little bit they are two really serious injuries for that kind of thing but i also don't think we'd be talking about it if he'd have just sort of converted one more of the chances that he's scored that he's had so far this season like three goals is nothing to be sniffed at after five games yeah i mean the thing with saka is like i don't think he was ever from a sprinting standpoint blazing fast like i i don't he's not nani maduike he doesn't have that speed and dirty speed endurance he has the speed agility as clive always talks about or what i we'd call in like american sports we talk about fast twitch muscles right he's got that shake and bake he can power pass when he gets a leg around you and then bursts beyond you and then holds you off with his strength that's always kind of been what he's done and i don't see him not being able to do that maybe i'm seeing what I want to see.

1:17:30But the idea that he used to just run away from people sprinter style, like a Martinelli, I don't think we ever thought he was like Martinelli in his top speed. If we just look at data and you compare it to the 23-24 season when he had 16 goals and nine assists, his expected goals per 90 that season were 0.48. This season, 0.69. Now look, it's very small sample size. He's had a couple tap-ins, so I get it. But if you look at shots, and shots, I still think shots for a forward are a very sticky and reliable way to look at if you're getting where you need to be. And anyone over three shots per 90, I think, is in that sort of elite tier where you can be a big scorer and influence games.

1:18:11That 23-24 season, 3.31. This season, 3.23. Very, very similar. And by the way, getting more of those shots on target than he did in that season. The expected assist with the drop-off has come. He was 0.34 that season, just 0.21 this season, and no assists yet. Chances created, 2.79 that season, just 1.51 per 90 this season. Successful duels, by the way, he's winning. He's got 1.51 duels this season, winning 50 % dribbles, sorry. 1.51 dribbles, 50 % success. That season, 1.5 dribbles, 47.6%. All right, duel percentage, 49 % that season. 58 % this season. You know, fouls, he's winning more. Fouls, 2.12 that season, 3.23 this season.

1:19:01So maybe that's part of it. Teams are fouling him more. But interestingly, touches in the opposition box, 8.81 that season, 6.46 this season. So can we get him in the box more? When you look at all that data, the thing that jumps out to me, the dual wins look around the same. The shots look around the same. The dribbles look around the same. The expected goals actually look better. the touches in the box aren't as good but the thing that jumps out at me is the expected assists and this is where I'm curious with Saka is just is he looking for his shot more when there's a teammate to play in is he not making the right decision in the high leverage moment and again this is small sample size data but the data matches my eyes he has no assists he hasn't looked as I think as eager to find a teammate as he has been to find his own shot in some situations is that wrong i think there might be something to it and i wonder if it's also instructed yeah we do not arsenal do not have a player who will score 25 goals from this season if buccati saka doesn't do it michael arteta wanted a player who could carry arsenal on their back and score 20 goals 25 goals this season we know that we all know that It was very obvious.

1:20:19He didn't get one. Is there an element of repurposing what you do have and asking somebody else to kind of adapt their game, add something to their game? Maybe it means you lose something else from your game. I do feel we already touched on that, that Arsenal don't create enough chances but creating chances is kind of a two-way street do Arsenal not create enough chances because they don't have enough players who can create a chance with the ball at their feet or do Arsenal not create enough chances because Arsenal don't have enough players who can get on the end of chances and make the right run and time the run right so that the pass becomes obvious and if that's your answer to that question then you don't need to coach Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz how to create a chance you need to give them someone to create a chance for and this is me playing devil's advocate and throwing a hypothetical out there but if Arsenal need more goals I wonder if Bakayi Saka has been asked and told and maybe coached to be more focused on scoring more goals.

1:21:32And of course, that means other parts of his game could drop away. But like you say, where we're seeing him on the ball, where we're seeing him have chances, the movement we're seeing in the final third, I think this is, we're seeing a Bakayosaka more involved at the very end of things rather than sort of setting them up. And I don't think that will cost Arsenal if that continues throughout the season. Yeah. Yeah, I'm still buying Bikai Osaka stocks based on the fact that I see him being involved in the, like the Napoli game was frustrating. We didn't score as much as we should have, but Bikai was everywhere, right?

1:22:10The Brighton game, you know, again, the most touches in the box, the most shots, the most chances created, like he's doing all the stuff I want to see him do. So I'll hold off on the he's physically washed talk. I just don't see where people see that. And there are keen video watchers who say, oh, he's here and here. I don't know. I mean, they show like 18-year-old Bakayo Saka playing left back, sprinting up the pitch, and like, yes, he's added muscle. He's a little stockier. He looks a little different, like men do versus boys. But I don't know that he was ever a sprinter. and I don't know that our success hinges on Bakayo Saka being a sprinter.

1:22:48I think it hinges on him being able to get past players and as the data shows and as my eyes tell me, he still gets around them when he needs to. Let's not pretend we haven't seen games too where surprisingly some fullback shuts him down when he was fit. Players don't always have their best game. But as I've said, if the underlying show that he's doing the things we want him to do, then I back him to get the actual results on the scoreboard. Um, my final point here is I would simply say from the attacking standpoint, we feel one body light to me, one good, reliable player, probably off the left.

1:23:22But maybe it's, you know, had it been Julian Alvarez, had it been Morgan Rodgers, I mean, I lament the Morgan Rodgers thing, because I think the one thing you can probably do to Arsenal, if you press, if you get us into a game where we're playing the ball in our own half a lot, you're probably going to take your chances with us not being effective in transition. That's something about Arsenal, right? The best teams, I think, if you try to press them, if you try to come on to them, they're going to absolutely kill you. They are just going to kill you. And I think Morgan Rodgers is one of those players in transition that you can get really burned really badly if you try to press and he can start running at you the other way.

1:24:03And I don't know that we have that player. And I think that would have been a really good fit for us. I think it would have made as his role even murkier, but it is what it is. It's behind us. I think we look a little bit light in that category, but here's the other thing. There is a window in January. If that continues to look to be the case, the odds that we're just out of the title race in January, I think are almost nil. So can we get William Sliba back? Can we reintegrate Timber more? Can Can Bruno get more integrated in the team? Can we collectively find goals across Odegaard and Eza and Bruno and Saka and Kai and Jokeres and Solis?

1:24:37I think we can. And then in January, if it's a situation where we're saying we're good, but this front line has proven what we thought it might, which is it's just a little underpowered, then I think you have a case for going again and making sure the season can be everything you want it to be. But on balance, I feel very good about the start to the season. I think it's been a pretty difficult start to the season when the fixtures came out I think we were concerned especially following a world cup and we've navigated it better than I think most people probably thought I don't know anybody who would have said win the community shield win it Napoli away win in the league cup win all five of our league games I mean some people would have said that but I you know I'm not sure that was ever realistic so as it went it's good and we come back to Leeds at home and we'll see how it goes so we've got a lot we're going to do during this break bad takes you may say ellie what do you mean bad takes you just did all the bad takes well there's more we'll have bad takes over on patreon we'll have a pod with giant gunner going over the situation at chelsea financially and some of the debt crisis looming over the premier league because i know finance chat uh gets the hashtag clicks so we're excited about that we might do some scouting videos um there's gonna be a lot of fun stuff i hope you'll stay with us for that and this this time we'll we'll just fly by uh lewis as ever you have been you know i would say one of the best people on this podcast today.

1:25:55So thank you for being on it. Top two for sure, no doubt. Grade? What's your grade for yourself? Hey, I'm not here to grade myself. A plus, Lewis, A plus. Anything else before we go? I'm going to go and work on some bad takes, I guess. Yeah, yeah, hone those bad takes. We need more. We only got 80 minutes of them this time. All right. Thanks, everybody, for being here. If you have any questions, let us know. Otherwise, we will see you on the next one. We love you. And we will talk to you after our 10 leads now.

1:26:39We'll be right back.

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