Injury Crisis Or Much Needed Rest?

32:10Doesn't necessarily mean in the long term. Like, I think anybody looking back on it now would say, even if you're in the camp that says it's all about the trophies and screw your learnings, that would be the reaction on the day or the day after the day or the day after that. But surely, and like, I also think it's about the trophies. But when you don't get a trophy, your second prize is some learnings. so we got some learnings and nobody thinking back in that can think we didn't need some learnings i mean we were bad right yeah and we got a schooling uh at least for the last hour let's let's say like that you know yeah we had our moment to begin with and then yeah yeah i mean you could say i think you could argue for the whole thing because you know we after a bright whatever 15-ish or so the game settled into its settled pattern and you could see the seeds of our demise at that point because we didn't have an answer for 4-2-4 from from city and that was apparent for quite a while it was just a question of them doing what they do which is getting in a stranglehold over time and we didn't do anything different so uh okay it's it's outcome based but You can kind of, it's not hard to write the narrative that that was coming.

33:34And with every passing five or 10 minutes that we didn't change something, it was even more, it seemed even more inevitable. So there were lots of learnings to have out of it. You could also say, well, the one big learning is I'd start with Davidraia and that's a different game. So you got to be careful as well with the learnings. It would have been a different game and we would have had options I mean Kepa should have been able to do more from the back it wasn't all down to Kepa but it wasn't like that was where your chain of of issues started the foot at the the ball at the foot of the keeper was move number one and uh Raya would have been different now he might have gone long rather than passing it out but he might have gone long better he got it might have gone long differently we might have been more attuned like so there's i think there's two worlds there's the world where the simple answer is well what would have happened with raya and then there's still the world of why weren't we better and how didn't we respond and why can't we string two or three passes together it wasn't all not everything started with cap at the back there were plenty of other yeah breaks in play in which we did not find come and we've seen this many times this season i've not been able to string more than two passes together yeah so there's and let me jump to one other thing you were talking about you know it's great having everybody back and is this our dubai matter a moment and like can we come up with new ways to i don't think there's a time of the season where you come up with new ways because there's that mental fatigue on the team too and the players are coming back in dribs and draps what you can do is open up the playbook for things that have worked for us in the past that maybe you're overlooking at the moment.

35:21And I think that's what Arteta will be doing right now. He'll be saying, what does this team know that we can lean into for different games? So I think it'll be very beneficial this period of time, mainly for Mikel and the coaching team to start to plot the last, as you said, it might be 15 games. The last 15 games, who, when, all the what-if scenarios in terms of, okay, we might have this player for that, that player for this, and start kind of planning out those moves. And what tactics do we, which tactics do we use to best help this team perform? So I think McAllen, the coaching team, will be the big winners from this period.

36:02I mean, everybody. I see what you mean. Using this time to really understand what can we lean into that we do well and how do we turn the volume up on that. The what ifs. Yeah. I'm going to say something that I don't want to upset people, but I hope it will make sense. I wasn't gutted by the cup final because we didn't win a trophy I mean obviously I would have liked to have won the trophy that would have been great but if we end the season with the FA Cup the Champions League and the Premier League no one will ever think about that game ever again like literally no one I think honestly if we just win the Premier League no one will think about that game ever again is my belief I was gutted about it because of the performance and the concerns that it turned up to a red alert for me that had been simmering just below the surface and I do think we had come off better performances against Bayer Leverkusen and Everton Clive but these were some concerns so I'm wondering now that you've got some distance from the cup final and had a chance to think about that performance and the knowledge that even if we think the league is ours it's a fait accompli that trip to the to the Etihad is going to feel I think weighty, you know, I think it will feel consequential.

37:09So how have you, with a little bit of distance from that game, internalized our failings in it, and what, if any, meaning it has for what's to come?

37:18Elliot:Yeah, the City game was such a, it hurt. It was such a poor game, but honestly, tactically, it's so easy to analyze, and it's like the easiest thing in the world, and we weren't brave enough to overcome it. We didn't push enough people into the back line to create an equilibrium of numbers. Every time it went long, they had two more players there to pick up the second ball. We lost the second ball. The dual numbers were shocking. Also, the team based on duals, as soon as you see that dual analyst, you think we got it wrong. You see that again, and they're splitting the centre-backs to our midfield too.

38:00Elliot:So you've got back four there, you've got four of their players, and you've got Armistead too, trying to find an angle. You've got fullbacks not quite pushing on. That means you've got six people behind the ball. So anything we do going forward, we're playing into 4v6, so we're not going to win it. That is not difficult for elite coaches. Honestly, mate, it isn't. And we didn't do it. We weren't brave enough. And that's the bit that concerns me, our lack of bravery. And so this break for me is all about mental freshness. because when you see people that are mentally fresh they can provide the solutions you know they start to dance through people they start to be braver start to turn out the right way be more aggressive push on you just that mental freshness to really go and step out of your zone rather than stand in your zone and i just didn't think we as a group as players and coaches that we recognized what was happening and we weren't brave enough until we were two goals down and then we were thrashing around and made changes and put more people against them they just stood off and watched this so it's a concern have I had that concern this season?

39:05Elliot:I haven't honestly I haven't seen us technically that dumb all season we haven't always played well that's down to us and maybe we've been quite conservative and we say you know what we're in four competitions sometimes you just need to sit and hold in this game we were sitting and hold if Ray is there we don't drop it and we may see that period off and go again right so So it's just one of those. And I've been conscious this week not to put too much on this one game. Although it's hard because, you know, you're there and you see it and it's big and they're dancing around Wembley because they haven't beaten us for a while, don't forget.

39:41Elliot:They haven't beaten us, you know. You see Pep running down that sideline. It meant something to them. It really did. Well, it's also a cup final. Losing cup finals, I mean, like, Baku hurt, you know. And that's a competition I don't even care about. That's a whole new ballgame I heard, that one. But like, so yeah, they recognize that this is it. Can we chin them? Can we make them uneasy? And they did it and they really rammed it home. They enjoyed it. And now we have to react. I'm hopeful that we get back to being us. And sometimes we look at an opposition that does their stuff on the ball, out-tactics us.

40:19Elliot:You think, well, we need to do more of that on the ball. We need to do more of that. No, no, no. Just get back to being us. let's get back to being a forceful hard running dual winning team that creates many transitions hits the box hard runs down the side and does things in a positive way you know and we have set pieces because we own the territory and we put crosses in if they get blocked we get a set piece we're really threatening we control the psychological nature of a game that's who this team is let's get back to being that first you know and then when we're that then we can develop more on the ball etc etc so that's my little worry i've just forgotten i was obviously everton laver kusin i was there and i was really positive rocking out to wembley it's quite clear that we didn't have the right players on the pitch for that day and they have to write mentality and so let's focus on that we fix that get our players back and go again can i just claude i want to take your temperature on one thing real quick and i kind of want to ask tim and paul the same thing i see a lot of talking about the league like it is a fait accompli like it is done like it well that look i'm with you i think in the arsenal social circles i travel in you know both in in-person and digital spaces there is a lot of it's done kind of talk like we it's done and you know if you like the data and you know scott does fantastic work with data obviously so i can't always look for his projections and his models come out opta has a model everyone's got us 90 % or above to do.

41:49And I close my eyes and I try to picture the red ribbons on the trophy and the trophy lift and the guard of honor and the parade. And Clive, I can't picture it yet. I'm not there. I can't picture it. I feel like there's still work to do. And in the sort of vacillations of form I've seen from this team, I think the idea that it's done to write off a team that's won all the freaking titles in the last decade that's usually good at going on a run on the run-in. I think it's dangerous and it scares me and we still have to go to their place. And yet, it's a team that dropped points to West Ham. It's a team that dropped points to Forrest.

42:28It's a team that got shredded by Real Madrid. Maybe what I need to accept is the Premier League is different. Teams dropped points and we're going to and they're going to and we're going to get there. But where are you in terms of feeling like we can close our eyes and start picturing it? It's going to happen. And how are you thinking about the extent to which the job feels done to you?

42:48Elliot:Yeah, I'm with you. I haven't thought that at all. I'm just taking it step by step. This weekend, I was at an event at the British Library. Tim was there as well. And there were some prominent Arsenal people there and journalists there. And there's only one conversation to have, right? It's about what we're doing, how we're playing, and do you think we're going to win? Some people there, maybe non-Arswell people, are saying, yeah, you've got it. It's done. I spent a bit of time talking to Alan Davis and he's wracked with fear much like much like myself you could it's not that fear it's like we know this is so important it's so important for so many reasons and I don't want to be one of those people that over celebrates too soon people saying see the parade Clive I'm thinking mate do not say that you know I just want all I'm focused on is Bournemouth you know and I'm not there yet, Elliot.

43:40Elliot:I'm not there yet. And I think it'd be great if it happens. I finally said when it happens. It'd be great if it happens. But what's really overcoming, what's in the front of my mind is, what if it doesn't happen? You know, what does this mean for everybody and the group and et cetera? And that's in my mind. But then there's another bit. What if it does happen? And the cultural explosion of Arsenal Football Club will be something that we've never seen. it'll just it'll go places that i've never seen you know and and that's what i want to see i think i know what's coming i think you know we won the league last time i didn't you know the the globalization of the club was not where it is today the amount of people in the around the world that support us so it's just a different place now and so i want it for everybody and i want to see what it looks like and i want people to realize speaking london they'll soon realize who runs the show.

44:37Elliot:And so it's going to be an interesting time. So I'm just taking it step by step. I'm where you are, Elliot. I'm not celebrating no open-top buses for me, mate. Not yet. Yeah, I want to get Paul and Tim's take on this too. I just want to take a quick breather to give everybody the brands they need to improve their life because without that, I don't think they can absorb the intelligent contribution that is to come on this podcast. And I want to make sure that you're in a position to do that in the most productive way possible. So let's tell you about some brands that are going to be really important for you moving forward.

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46:30I can follow the teams I care about, get real-time scores, breaking news, and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment. Okay, glad we did that. Tim, what about you? Where's your head at in terms of feeling like you can picture it, feeling like you can manifest it in your mind? You can close your eyes. You can picture the ribbons. you can be on the streets surrounded by other arsenal supporters where are you at i mean obviously i can picture that i've been picturing it for 22 years okay but but um like so let me preface this by saying i think we will do it i i think we'll we'll grit it over the line because that's who we are and that's probably what has to happen at this point anyway i don't think anyone plays champagne football in april right and I cast my mind back to years when we did do it 2004 we like we we got 90 points and won the league unbeaten but there was a point where we were 2-1 down at home to Liverpool and it looked like we weren't going to do it at all and a month later we'd done it in 2001-2002 one of my biggest memories was we had two home games in a week against West Ham and Ipswich and we were nil-nil in both of them on 80 minutes.

47:54Scary times. 97-98. I don't know if any of you guys remember this game at home to Derby. It was actually a night Bergkamp went off injured and that meant he was missing the cup final. So he had a bit of trauma. Late Emmanuel Petit goal, 1-0. Derby were rubbish that season, but it was tight. It was horrible. People forget this stuff. And justifiably so, it's been a long time. but most league titles at this stage, if you're going to win it, unless you're in a procession, which we are not, it gets, you know, I could even go back, Elliot, to 1953. On April 1st, 1953, Arsenal were six and they won the league.

48:38The days of two points were a win, but... Let's just say, I really hope the team that's in six currently does not win the title. so i like i guess what i'm saying you you just said it at the top of the show and i know they're not all league games we could play 15 more games this season 15 that is a lot of games and something rubbish is going to happen and at least one at least one like probably more like let's face it we're probably not going to win the treble we we might we might but like what i'm saying is there's a high likelihood that some pain is coming somewhere um you know and we've just experienced some haven't we so like this part is never plain sailing so no like my head is not fast forwarded there and i think the etihad looms large i i think it's as simple as this i think what i've thought for a long time city i think have to beat us in that game um like that i think they absolutely have to beat us.

49:40I think that's been apparent for a while. And if they don't, then I start visualizing. Then I start, you know, ordering. I think it's a fait accompli if they don't beat us. Yeah, I mean, unless something crazy happens, like we lose to Bournemouth and they beat Chelsea and then we draw at the Etihad, there'll still be work to do. But even then, I think like it's a fait accompli if they don't beat us at the Etihad. Yeah, yeah. So no, I think we'll do it. I do think we'll do it. But no, I can't fast forward that much yet. There's too much to go yet. Paul you've been chomping at the bit to get in on this one for a while sorry but where you at yeah well just like those models are great but I have the same problem with them every year and it's pretty easy to see right uh if if they win at the end of the head if they get their extra three points none of which seems particularly ridiculous right at this moment I mean I'm still Like, I'm still generally positive.

50:34But, and then we lose first.

50:40Like, watch the numbers on those models flip. Yeah, let me say it this way. If they win their game in hand and they beat us at the Etihad, what do you think the models are saying? It's a three-point gap. It's not 90 % at that point. Let's put it that way. Yeah, and I know the models are based on science and yada, yada, yada. But at the end of the day, you can also say. Paul, there's a bit too much yada yadaing of science at the moment, so I'd appreciate it if you would not go down that path. But if you take the other path, which is the simple human thing, all we got to do is screw up before they screw up, and they win the couple of games we talked about, which doesn't seem ridiculous.

51:16This is not a procession. This is not done. I mean, that's nuts. What are you doing to yourself if that's the way? I can tell you Mikel doesn't think this is done. These players don't think it's done. Can I just say one thing in defense of the people that do think it's done? Their argument would be, your concern is predicated on City being a team. They have not been all season because City are in worse form than we are right now. Like, there's no debating that. They dropped points to West Ham and Forest, as I said. So I think that the it's done crowd would be basing it not only on the models, but on the idea that there's nothing to suggest City are about to become the team we're scared of them being.

51:56well there's nothing to suggest that their form will be worse than our form going forward right it's a rear view look and like fine but like uh all right if that's if that's how you want to see the world uh be be prepared for one hell of a white knuckle ride um yet a willenda am i right from the flying willendas big fan a tightrope walker um they had to hose her off the pavement to use a line out of mad men in 1962 um because she looked down right now she should have been able to get across that higher wire high wire line in new york but uh you just need one off day and things get very interesting for you yeah and we just need one off day and things would get very interesting for us and and run-ins are different we know that so look i feel generally i think we're going to do it i feel positive but like any but i guarantee you between now and the end of the season those people who think it's done will have at least one or two weeks where they're like holy shit what was i thinking yeah clive oh no i i agree um this is shit i wasn't

53:15Elliot:expecting this from us. Well, you know, I can only... We're generally positive, don't we? Yeah, look, it's very difficult, right? We are where we are. We're right close now. We can all feel it. We're close. But we're also scarred in recent years, aren't we? We're scarred and the cup final, maybe we've reawoken some of those scars. I think this team is made of different stuff. We scored the most goals in the seed of these goals. We got a good goal difference. and if you're a mathematician, then you're going to see what you see, right? But I'm a human being. That's still got Wembley Way walk back to the tube stop in my mind, right?

53:55I thought you were a tactics football computer wearing a human being suit.

53:59Elliot:Well, there's an emotional connection to football that you have that's just not written in any spreadsheet. It just isn't. And that connection to a game and that connection to a team is individual to the person that has it. and you have to work in that connection and you have to, you build it on your structures and your experience and your exposure to the game. That's the thing that I try my hardest to work on. And when you connect to your team and your club emotionally, you see every single emotional dip and it hurts and it stays in your mind and you walk with it, you go to gym with it, you walk your dog with it, go to work with it.

54:35Elliot:It stays in your mind and you extrapolate it, you make it bigger. Then someone comes along and says something, oh, that's actually calming me down, it made me feel better. and someone comes on and says that makes you even more worried then you go into the emotional washing machine and then you sometimes forget that your team is actually quite good and maybe rather than losing a salibra and a tierney in this international break or around this period when we lost tommy yasser around this period we can go back to those key injuries that we've lost when we were exposed squad rise and maybe we learned some lessons i look at little pool squad last year and I look at their back four that played a lot of games and they never got injuries in those areas and no one talks about exposure to their squad this year they've suffered injuries and they've lost some rhythm Man City suffered injuries last year they reloaded their squad we suffered injuries we've reloaded ours we're still suffering injuries but I think we've been quite cautious with how we pull people even in warm-ups pull people out so not long injuries we need a break.

55:37Elliot:We need a break with the Mazowiec thing. We need a break with the Eze thing. We need a break. Not an actual leg break. We need to catch a break. We also need a break with form because we've got players returning. We've got players in our squad with good names. They read their names out. They're good names. They've got good wages. They've got good history. But we need form. We need bravery and we need form. You know, we haven't mentioned Gabby Jesus. He's one of our captains in our club. And we've lost people in wide areas. We don't talk about him because we haven't got a memory of recent form.

56:13Elliot:Martin Odegaard, we haven't really seen recent good form. There's a picture of the player, he's top three player in the league two years ago, in league team of the season, right? We haven't got that player for a while, but we need him to come back. Our star player, the form around him, we need it to come back. Look, Havertz, we need this to come back. And I find myself looking at the people that have built this house, the architects of this team, that have built this group in the Jaysus, the Odegaard, the Havertz, been here a few years. They're the ones I almost want to see them carry us over the line.

56:49Elliot:I want them, the SACO as well, to come and carry us over the line. Because the squad mentality of the new players have really allowed us to be in this position. Now we're here. Come on, lads. this is it now. This is the time for you to step up. That's the overriding feeling I have. I can't get away from it. I can't get away from thinking about Bournemouth, to be honest. Yeah, and I think it's just interesting, right? Because having anxiety or apprehension about us being able to do this, I think is natural and human. It is the case that Manchester City have not been very good this season. They just haven't.

57:29Their longest win streak this season is six games in the league. And that was Leeds, Fulham, Sunderland, Palace, West Ham, Forest. Other than that, they have a four-game win streak. They're currently on a streak of two draws, Forest and West Ham, and a couple of losses to Madrid, by the way. So they've got to prove they can be what we're worried about. You know, that's part of it. And one thing that we could get lucky with too, by the way, is where they place that Palace game that has to be rescheduled. That could get put into a tricky place. What could be interesting, by the way, it could get put, depending on what Palace do in the Europa Conference League, I think is the one they're in, it could get put on the last week of the season.

58:13It could get put midweek for the last week of the season. Now, the irony is, if we make the FA Cup final, we could have Burnley put midweek of the last week of the season. And that could make for a very, very interesting final week. and would certainly make for an interesting Union Chapel weekend for us looking ahead to that. But, Tim, it does bring up the FA Cup and the Champions League. And this is what's so weird. Neither the FA Cup nor Champions League feels like it's even started. We've played lower league opposition in the FA Cup, and so our biggest conversation around the FA Cup has been how much can we rotate?

58:48We're into the quarterfinal of it. We win one more game. We're to Wembley again. And yet the conversation inevitably, even with Southampton, is going to be how much can we rotate? Who can we rest? and in the Champions League, we walked our way through the league table phase without much ado about any of it, and then we played a team we were heavy favorite against and got past them, and now we're going to face another team we're heavy favorite against with a chance to get into the semifinal of the Champions League, which we've only done, is it four times now in our history? If we do it, three times ever?

59:17Is it weird to you how these cups, which we value and cherish, and especially in the Champions League's case, one we've never won, that they don't feel like they've even started or come into our collective consciousness yet. And how strange is that for you? It is, but at the same time, even if in the FA Cup we'd knocked out, I don't know, Man City and Liverpool or something to get here, I just think the league is so big for everyone that I still think they'd be in the rearview mirror a little bit. And it's interesting, you know, at the same event as Clive yesterday and talking to Arsenal fans and also a wedding on a Friday evening for my dear friend Ricky, who's a listener to this podcast.

59:59I think some of you know as well. And just talking to a lot of Arsenal fans. So many people are like, the league is all I really care about. And I really do think that that's really prevailing. I think if we were on this Champions League run like last season, it doesn't matter who we'd be, everyone would be talking about it. It would be the big thing. But I just think everyone's got one and three quarter eyes on the league, a quarter of an eye on the Champions League. And the FA Cup, you know, kind of feels like a nice to have in that scenario, which feels like a weird thing to say when you haven't won anything for six years and you kind of got to try and win something.

1:00:43So I think definitely the FA Cup, you know, would have quote unquote suffered in the conversation anyway. I just think everyone's got all eyes on the league really and I've said before I'd rather win the Champions League just because I just want to do it once and then I'd never say that again to be honest I was having yeah I was having an interesting conversation with someone else on Friday night as well because like with the Champions League thing as well it's like once right we're not catching up Liverpool or Real Madrid or any of those teams like that's not happening while i'm living and breathing so like if we do it twice like obviously fantastic we do it twice or three times or whatever but like i just want it once that's that's that's the kind of thing and then i would always always say the league after that so i just think that's where everyone's head is at quite naturally i don't actually think who we've played in the cup and the champions league it's probably you're right it's probably contributed a bit particularly in the build up to those specific games if we had like man city on saturday we'd probably still be saying who can we get away with rotating um and stuff like that but yeah i just think the league is all to to pretty much everyone i think yeah and not to put the shits up people but like it is the case that we could go to the etihad in the league in the very next weekend be playing city again at wembley like i mean it could be and then the newcastle home game gets moved to the midweek and it all you know and if we were to somehow beat city at wembley go to the final then the burnley game gets moved to a midweek and may could suddenly have all our hopes and dreams in its hands we could have barcelona twice and city at wembley and a wembley final and i mean oh it could be it could be can i ask a question can i ask a question yeah yeah it's

1:02:33Elliot:a very difficult question but would you give up the fa cup against southampton give it up as in like just like no no i wouldn't give it up i mean if you said what are you giving me in return for it well a clear fix of this to make sure we win the other two so this is where people scream at me i wanted to crash out of the league cup at the first turtle i bet you all wish we'd done that now um but like the problem is if we beat southampton we're in a semifinal to win a cup we love and cherish and is tied to our history and connected to us in a deep way and I want the treble you know what guys screw your I only want the league I want the treble if we really believe we're great if we really want to write our names into history if we really want to etch ourselves onto the mountaintops of the great teams of all time and stuff that worst champion ever talk down their throat and stuff that ruining football talk down their throat then don't run away from history run towards it you've got a clean path to the semifinal of the Champions League with no dominant team in Europe except maybe Bayern.

1:03:38You've got a reasonable path into Wembley in the FA Cup, and you've got a good chunky lead at the top of the Premier League that you should be able to hold on to. Don't run away from history. Go chase it and write your name up there with the other treble winners, and no one will ever be able to say shit against Arsenal and this Arsenal ever again. So maybe that's naive, but once you get to the precipice of this kind of history why would you back away from it i just we have the players we have the right manager we have just enough depth to do it we're too close now clive to answer your question for me to pick one over the other now if i can only have two it's the league in the champions league of course that everybody agrees on that if i can only have one normally to tim's point i would have picked the champions league because i think it's absence is a blot on our record book a blot on our cv but if we fail to do the league now the damage that we'll have from this position i think will be lasting so we have to do the league i'd pick that over all of them but let's go chase history and paul is shaking his head vigorously he does not want the treble he does not want to win three trophies i'm not sure he wants to win any trophies because as we know it is about the learnings and we would learn so much from winning nothing right paul yeah we're not at the precipice of history just to you you went to the math earlier like let's say we got 90 % on the league and we got what 20, 25 % on the FA Cup probability of winning it.

1:05:04I think we're higher than that, but yeah, go ahead. Not much. I mean, there's a lot of good teams left. Why would we? Okay, let's give it 30%. You keep talking. I'm going to give you the odds that we have to win the FA Cup and the odds that we have to win the Champions League. Good. Yeah. And let's say it's 30 % for the FA Cup, 30 % for the Champions League. Multiply them together we're 34 depending on probability markets i think okay for the effort you multiply up 34 and 90 and another 30 you're at about 10 chances of winning the three so what do i want i just want the premier league and the champions league elliot yeah um so just those two just the We're plus 230 for the Champions League.

1:05:54Yeah, nobody knows what that means in the UK. All right, I'll give it to you. What is plus 230 in percentage? It is... This is like the RS Kaus, you know, where Andrew does that. I'll just look that up. Plus 230 odds is 30.3 % implied probability. I said 30. I mean, I was guessing wildly. So you got 30 by 35%. you're at like not good numbers with even if you give 100 % of the league for those people who want to be 100 % well let me ask you another way of history when have we ever been 30 % like 30 % one in three to win the Champions League yeah but I feel you don't know what two 30 % in a row does to you yeah I know you do I do I do yes but you went to the Met like like I get we're not on the precipice but do you let me ask you this paul let me put it another way do you think we'll get past southampton uh not if we put out a bad enough team do you think we'll get past southampton okay do you think we'll get past sporting lisbon yeah okay it'll be close so that means we'd be two two games from winning the fa cup three games from winning the champions league and right there with a good shot at the premier league clive talk me off the ledge here man i'm all the way back in I want the treble now, and I'm not walking away from it.

1:07:14I want the treble.

1:07:14Elliot:Look, there'll be people out there that think that, and I'm not sure I am. I don't care. I'm in one game. I do. I'm back at Southampton, I mean, the FA Cup. Oh, oh, oh. Yeah. I'm in one game at a time mode, and when you're sitting here with 11, 12 injuries, that's a valid question, right? You've got to raise it. It's a broad church, Alston, right? There are people thinking like this. And so, and I have scars. That's a good point, yep. I have scarred from 2004 when we were juggling an FA Cup semifinal and we had Chelsea in the Champions League. And Tim will know this. He knows what I'm going to say.

1:07:50Elliot:That's my most painful ever Arsenal moment, I think. No, it's not even that. We didn't quite commit to the FA Cup semifinal and lost that. We then blew our gasket against Chelsea and we ran out of juice towards the end and lost that. and we nearly blew our gasket against Liverpool. And at that point, at that 2-1 down, I tell you now, you want to know what trauma feels like in that ground? I mean, that was trauma. And so I often felt, historically, I wish we'd have chucked the FA Cup because that team deserved to win the Champions League and that was a year to do it. So it's a valid question. I'm not sure I am.

1:08:31Elliot:I'm in one game at a time mode but I think it's a valid question And when the injury reports come out, then I think we'll all feel a bit more confident if everyone's okay. But everyone's not okay. We might have a decision to make. Paul, you've raised your hand, so I will reluctantly cede the floor back to you. Yeah, well, I want to make a point that even you might agree with on this. Why have we got to where we have today? You can call us set piece FC. You can call us whatever you like. You can call us defensive. Our bench. Our bench has contributed the goals and assists that City have. City have like zero off their bench.

1:09:15I'm making numbers up, but they're not far wrong. We've got like 21 goals and assists off our bench. I'm making that up, but I think it might actually be based on something. If we were at our bench, that has been our superpower. so we got to be very careful how we we only have so many beans uh you can't spread them around too thin i mean i'm i'm with clive on this 100 i don't think we're anywhere near the edge of history because i don't think the bench spreads across 15 games and keeps giving it like the bench is getting thinner and thinner and we got to preserve it so hence i think that's the way we go here's where cup football though is is really different and and i want to emphasize this okay arsenal football club have played how many how many games have we played this season 50 probably know this 50 okay we've played 50 games and we have lost three times four once uh four times sorry yes uh once to united which i had memory hold but once to liverpool you know if a late winner in a nothing game once to city we were outclassed in a cup final less said about that the better and And Villa.

1:10:27And Villa. Yeah, again, one at the death. Here's what I would say. There's no game we play where I think we're going to lose. There are games where I think we're not going to win because of goal-scoring issues. But in general, we don't lose a lot. And Tim, if we get past Southampton and you say we have City in the semifinal or Chelsea, I'm not saying I think we'll win it, but I think we're harder to beat than anyone. And in a cup, you've got to beat somebody. so you know i i'd like our chances and i'm not saying we're definitely past sporting lisbon because i don't think we were so good against bayern leverkusen that we can take anybody for granted and i certainly don't think barcelona would be a walk in the park that's for damn sure um let alone a you know a champions league final against bayern so i want to be careful about saying we're on the precipice but what i mean is i like our team to not lose games now in the league you got to win games and i don't always like our team to win games because i think scoring is hard but I like our team to not lose games.

1:11:24Granted, the cup final just dented that a bit. I just say there aren't going to be many seasons in your life ever where you have a chance to win a treble. We've never done it. I mean, who's ever done it? Is it United and City? Is that it? Yep. Okay. I just feel like if we really, really want to look at this situation, say we've got a team that's really hard to beat, doesn't lose much, should it be in our mind? I realize it can't be in the players' minds. I got to play one game at a time, but we've mostly laughed it off. And everybody here is protecting themselves. I just want the league. I just want the league.

1:11:58I'm pretty sure United fans, the season they won the treble, were going, I just want the league. I just want the league. City fans, I don't know because they aren't out there. There aren't any of them. But how do you navigate at least acknowledging that that possibility is out there and it is a chance to write your name in history in a very serious way? Of course it is. Of course it is. Well, this is like whatever you want to call it, pontoon 21. You're on 17. are you sticking or twisting? Gosh, yeah, it is, isn't it? It's like, that's such a good point. Do you want to go for 21 or are you sticking on 17?

1:12:32Because, you know, one of the things that, you know, as Clive said there, we probably in 2004 cost ourselves the Champions League. And we did rest players in the FA Cup semi-final, by the way. We did play Jeremy Adier up front.

1:12:47Elliot:Was it only one player though, Tim? Was it really unreal? Pretty much. Yeah, yeah. They played Bergkamp and Ali Adier up front, and it was Reyes and Henri against Chelsea. So they rested the front two. And actually, the squad wasn't really big enough then to do that. It's an under-remembered thing about the Invincibles. It was 15 players, really, like Edu, Ray Parler, Canu, Wiltord. Beyond that, not many guys on the bench you'd want playing, to be honest. And that was kind of a moment in time as well, because we had so few injuries that season. So it comes down to, are you prepared to potentially jeopardize one of the big two in the interest of getting all three?

1:13:31Because where it would come down to it, we all know what we're going to do in the league for the rest of the season. There's going to be no rotated 11s there. So like Christian Norgard, less we're 3-0 up, mate, you're not getting a kick in either of those. Nope. But Southampton is the last time that there's any chance of that. Because after that, like FA Cup semifinals, you're not playing a championship or a League One team again. You're going to be playing a serious... No, because it's going to be Liverpool, City or Chelsea. Exactly. Yeah, you're going to be playing one of the big Premier League teams.

1:14:04So then it comes down to what do you do for the FA Cup semifinal if we're there? That's what we're talking about here, right? FA Cup semifinal comes around. Let's say we are in the Champions League semifinal. what are you going to do? Yeah, and let me set that table for you, Tim, because it could be this. It could be we lose at the Etihad in the league. We have, let's just say, Chelsea in the semifinal and Barcelona wrapped around that game. Yeah, yeah. What do you do? Yeah, I mean, I think there'll be some decisions made for the FA Cup semifinal, which again, we're not even talking really modern football here.

1:14:42We did that 22 years ago. So we made that choice to some extent. So I think he'd make those choices. I don't think like full, complete rotation. And again, it would depend like where are your injuries and stuff like that. But yeah, I think he'd potentially make some choices. And you're still kind of gambling there, aren't you? You're gambling on, can I leave Saka on the bench against Chelsea or Liverpool, bring him on with half an hour to go, and win the game, even if it's on penalties or something. That's just how this stuff goes. Man United, when they won the treble, 1999 FA Cup final rested their front two.

1:15:24They rested Cole and York because they had the Champions League final on Wednesday. They actually had a weird situation where their midfield duo were out of the Champions League final so they could play then full beans to the FA Cup final. They were in the FA Cup final and they made those choices as well.

1:15:42Elliot:Do you remember May United in the replay in 1999? They switched to front two, didn't they? They went sharing them and Solskjaer for that game. And they almost half gave it up, didn't they? They half gave it up and got away with it, obviously, in spectacular fashion and ended strong. So decisions to make. And I'll tell you now, mate, that injury, Paul, is going to be key. Well, I have a comment to make about that, but Paul has politely raised his hand. So, Paul? yeah like tim's analogy with pontoon 21 is good it's useful but the problem is you know all your probabilities i prefer the analogy of the titanics going down that's a bit of a downer okay but you're in a lifeboat yeah so that's good okay there's you got two spots left your wife and three of your children are swimming around in the water you got two spots but you're not sure you might have three you might get away with it you don't know how much water is going to come in or not that would bring the report cards into shop focus wouldn't it what about your girlfriend is there room for her your wife and your girlfriend i don't think you want them both in the lifeboat unlike you clive i kept my girlfriend nice and safe on dry land um look yeah i do just point being you don't know if you can get two people into the boat or not yeah that's another calculation we we don't know what happens there's so many unknowns that the the safer you that's why i go to safety in this case because like precipice of history i don't think so i think we're miles back from the cliff it's three competitions like you're going to do what you're going to do you're going to put out a rotated but functional team we and like in the end the fates decide yeah the the thing that makes this unusual is the way that fixtures fall right coming back from an international break to lower league opposition to get in the semi-final the FA Cup and then going to Lisbon when we know we have the return like back at home and we're favorites before you get back in the league that's just a really weird construction of the schedule it is not remotely far-fetched that we could have come off losing at the Etihad in the league to make the league more nervy but be in the semifinal of both cups and have this exact scenario city at Wembley, Barcelona on either side of it, like, and then a league fixture that's really important.

1:18:12I'll just say this. And this is the thing I don't think people will like, because nobody likes this. Nobody likes to believe that luck plays a role. Everybody wants to believe that if you just do all the right things, the right way, you're in control. And I think luck is going to play a role here. I think one of these teams is going to have a ball bounce off somebody's ass and go in, or one team isn't. I think injuries are going to play a role. I think someone's going to get an injury that they weren't expecting, and it's going to play a big role. Maybe we get players back. Maybe Mikel Marino can play in May.

1:18:42Just enough. When these last little fixtures come around. Probably not. I was just going to say, one of the things I was going to finish on is if we don't win the treble, Mikel Arteta's done you know i'm talking like the general consensus yeah he did he made this massive bloody mistake we were just talking about the invincible season there and it's like why didn't he bloody do this in the fa cup so the the greatest season in our club's history and we're going why didn't he do this in the fa cup semi-final like unless like we go perfect and win all of these games and win the treble then that's not what i think but michael arteta has been an idiot and he's cost us like Well, this was where I was going.

1:19:24Yeah, that's where I was going. Because to your point, like Alex Ferguson made the same decision, rotated some players, got away with it. This is what I'm saying. Mikel's going to have to make some hard choices and get away with it. And sometimes in football, you do get away with it. We have to squad in. It has not been our history recently to get away with it. Every injury that could have happened at the worst possible time has happened. But maybe, maybe as it comes back, and maybe Kai is rounding into fitness, and maybe Nani's injury isn't as bad as we think, and maybe, maybe, maybe Odegaard's back and he looks good right away.

1:19:56I think luck will play a role in this to an extent we don't want to acknowledge. But if the players are fit, you cannot convince me we aren't favorites in every game we play to not lose it. And not losing it is a way to win cups. So, oh boy. You can be favored in every game but not favored in all games together. Of course. That's how probabilities work, right? But that's the thing for managers. You can't manage all the games at once. you can manage the game in front of you. I think it actually, the hardest management period, you guys, the hardest for Mikel will be Southampton and Sporting Lisbon.

1:20:31Because after that, I do think it's clarifying. I think you play your best available team against Barcelona if you're in it. I think you play your best available team against City or Chelsea or Liverpool in an FA Cup semifinal. I think you play your best available team again against Barcelona. And you play your best available team in the Premier League. And that's probably it. The hardest one, ironically, if we wind up in this situation, is the FA Cup final. because it comes before the Champions League final and before what would potentially be a two-match week week in the Premier League. So we'll see.

1:20:58This, I mean, the butterflies in my stomach are like pterodactyl size. Just talking about it. So it is, as Tim has been pointing out all season, going to be absolutely excruciating. But we are really lucky to be on the ride where we are. Like, that's the thing I can't stress enough. Instead of connecting to anything bad about where we are, I'm trying to connect to how exciting it is to be chasing the things we're chasing and Mikel tried to say that right his whole get on the boat thing was focus on what the history we can accomplish don't focus on what we could lose and that is there's two sides every sports fan right there's the sports fan is like our team's the best and our team will win everything there is a sports fan like in fever pitch it was like our team's a bunch of see you next Tuesdays they're gonna find a way to choke it all away and that gong lets me know that we have reached the end of the podcast it is the gong show if you're old enough you know what i'm talking about clive thank you for indicating that thank you very much thanks tim my pleasure as always great job paul woohoo if uh elliot i hope we've done one thing in this show and if we've done this i think it was worth all of that what ifs i hope we've terrified the people who thought the league was a lock yeah i i hope we've just terrified everybody generally about all this because i know it did it to me uh and if we've done one other thing i hope it's convinced you that we need your help for the fundraiser coming in a couple of days.

1:22:16We'll have a lot of announcements. We'll be giving. I know Andrew's going to help us out from the Arscast. I know the club are going to have some people that want to talk to you about it. I know that some players have some stuff to say. This is a really critical moment to give. And I do want to emphasize this. There's a billion causes out there that are worthwhile. There are a billion people that I've need. And ideally, in a world, you help all of them. But wanting to help all of them can give you analysis paralysis or choice paralysis. We help none of them. So we have a cause. Our club picked it.

1:22:43It's brilliant what they do. They do so much work in the North London community, but this community of young people, they're just kids. They need help and we're going to help them. So I hope you will join us. The premier league of causes. It is, exactly. Well done. We love you. And we will talk to you after Arsenal 10, Southampton. No.

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