The Market Has Gone Crazy But When Will Arsenal Join the Party?

0:00Music

0:16It's Rice. What a goal! Declan Rice with an absolute rocket with a free kick. Arsenal lead 1-0. Cut inside. Saka! Sublime finish! He's back with a bang with Bukayo Saka. 1-0. Unbelievable. Look, I get how they could mistake it, having not won anything in so long, but Spurs seem to think that the person who spends the most money in the summer wins the title. This is the Arsenal Vision Post-Match Podcast. My name's Alex Bithing Black. I'm your host, Ian Gunnar. It did not work out for Liverpool last season, and dare I say, it probably won't work out for Spurs this season, although they are endeavoring, endeavoring to show, if not through their football, then through their check writing, that they are a mighty force in the Premier League.

0:59And we will be talking today about what to make of Spurs splurging. Not that we care about Spurs so much because, you know, they're kind of a triviality in the world of football, but because I do think the market in general is worth the discussion and where the market is right now. and cities showing they're willing to fire the money cannons even absent Pep Guardiola and even with the obviously impending relegation coming to them for their alleged 116 charges. I guess the charges aren't alleged. It's the alleged financial crimes that they allegedly perpetrated. So there's that. We're going to talk about whether and when Arsenal will let loose our own money cannons, which I am reliably informed are quite canonical and heavy and have a heft and balls, big, big balls, big cannonballs, but they're made of money.

1:45this is bad i should stop what i will tell you is that there's a friday night clive tomorrow that is not bad that will never stop can't stop won't stop come join the patreon and enjoy all of the clive friday night clive tomorrow saliba 50s code you can get it for a couple quid see what you think we're gonna start hitting up the scouting videos again and director of footballs again and all that um on transfer dailies as the world cup starts to wind down here with me now is a man i literally just saw in chicago it's paul hey paus yeah that was fun it was good to meet everybody we're uh elliot and i are available for bar mitzvahs and general bookings we'll show up yeah do a podcast any onto the next town people will give me a microphone and let me talk at them i am happy to be there uh i just to tell you where i am in the pecking order though james seated behind the table paul seated behind the table tim seated behind the table they're like elliot you can stand mate i still wasn't taller than any of them but that's beside the point.

2:43It was a good time and to Chicago, thank you for having us. Chicago Gooners are wonderful. Thanks to Jim. Thanks to everybody out there who came out to see us. I had a really great time meeting people and the live pod was all well and good, but it was really the hanging out that made it special. So thanks to everyone. Alright, Paul. Quickly, any thoughts on the World Cup? The Arsenal boys were in action yesterday. The England team, Rice played. He looked shagged out. Saka played and I was already worried for his fragile ankles. Nani played, and he seemed like he had that X button taped down, you know, sprint and cross, sprint and cross, sprint and cross.

3:19He's got that X button mashed down on his controller. Yeah, Leo played. I thought he played really well for a Belgium team that I didn't think was the better team, but he was probably one of their better players. So there's that, plus the U.S. getting through and ex-Arsenal player, Balogun, getting a red card. So your thoughts on the Arsenal boys in action? Yeah, there was some nice Arsenal stuff to focus on in every game. Obviously, we're going to co-opt in Fuller and Balogun into our Arsenal collective, as we should. Still glad we sold him and kept to Eddie, Paul? I'm just kidding. No, no, he's still on loan.

3:54He's still on loan to the club. I never let players go. You know me. I never want to sell the academy guys. They're all still on loan. Your mic's coming through a bit hot. I'm hearing it clip a bit. So if you are able to The gain? Do I do the gain? Yeah This is the good sign I'm not even going to cut this out I'm a pro I'm an audio engineer Roadie Roadie I pick up I pick up the Ladies or men Who aren't that interested in you The rock star because I'm the roadie That seems better Is that better? Yes, that's better. Okay. This has been the Arsenal Vision podcast. All right. Good job. Well done. Good job by you.

4:41Good job, Paul. Thank you. Yeah, so what do you make of the Arsenal boys in action? So, like, Nani was a bit of a one-man show for the Arsenal and for England in the first half. I know there's the whole debate about Nani, so we won't get into that. But at least 50 % of the game that you expect from a winger, He was truly exceptional, electric, and uncontainable. So he was having fun. Unfortunately, it wasn't until they got off Jed Spence and put Declan Rice as right-back. Arteta must have been rubbing his hands saying, you see, I knew it. I knew Declan Rice at right-back was a great idea and got all the Arsenal guys in the same area of the pitch with Saka so they could create as creating triangles suddenly we got our shit together and uh yeah uh Kane needs to work on his diving I did like that referee right he's the one referee that does not seem to have been hypnotized by Harry Kane's diving like I think it was probably a penno but it was absolutely a two-footed dragging his toes along the grass he's been doing that for as long as he's been in football yeah just his thing he has a contract with football basically an understanding that everybody's ratified that that is a penalty but he didn't get it um yeah it was good stuff um like of course at some stage they may run into france with alice but uh they'll have deckman rice as a midfield screen with uh saliba and gabrielle and hincapier and timber behind him and Ryan goals.

6:26So I think they'll be able to contain my... They didn't call up any of those players, Paul. They didn't call those players up. As it turns out, actually, those players play for other nations, unfortunately. He'll have to do it on his own. So I think apart from if they can block France out of their mind, yeah, I thought it was actually pretty good from England. I know it didn't feel like it if you're an England supporter, but eventually they got their act together and were peppering the goal. There's a whole discussion about XG and all that kind of thing. game state's kind of a big deal so you know how good were england really did was it just the fact they had to chase the game and did lots of aerial assault against a low block you're going to get some xg um i thought england were pretty good they still haven't found their formula saka clearly is nowhere near fit i guess i was a bit troubled the statement which seemed reassuring from tushel about hey we're working really closely with the arsenal's medical team and blah blah blah to reassure everybody it almost seemed like an insurance clause for if anything goes wrong it's not because we crocked him so uh yeah i didn't enjoy that comment some number of days ago yeah i mean he's he's not fit we know that because if he was fit he'd be starting um and i he's miles off he still he still worked a little magic in the triangles like it it was he was nowhere near the output of Nani and yet we we England I'll I'm proud to be English when it suits me we England Arsenal England I think had a measure of control that we didn't have without without the Arsenal boys and Saki in place well look I think ultimately some of the Arsenal players are looking really good at the World Cup some are already headed home you know Kai Kai gets a rest.

8:21I'm sure he's not thrilled to be out of the World Cup, but this is a player who couldn't play 90 for us, who was playing 120 minutes for Germany. I'm quite happy that he gets to rest because I think a fit Kai makes a big difference for us. What about Leo? Leo's not sellable. You can't sell that guy. You know the way the Americans do the Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, and they do the same thing with Kevin De Bruyne. and the, it's not Kevin De Bruyne, it's Leo Trossard and the Belgium team. I mean, he's just, he's phenomenal. Yeah, yeah, he's been absolutely brilliant. So we'll see. Let's shift gears to club football stuff though because there is a bit of stuff to talk about.

9:03And I think one of the stories is just Spurs splurging. Now my normal thing would be to say Spurs spursing because that's usually what they're doing and maybe they are spursing. I have to be honest. I think Spurs are getting some good players that address issues that their team has. I don't think they had anybody who could, what's the word I'm looking for, pass the football. And it turns out that's pretty important in the football. And now they have players who can do that and add a measure of quality to a team that was much more agricultural and functional than anything else. The prices are really the issue.

9:41You're talking about near$90 million for Matias Fernandez, I think, and about$100 million for Sandra Tonali. These are huge prices, and you're starting to see that if you want to buy anyone from within the Premier League, Paul, you're going to pay an absolute fortune. And I just wonder how this is sustainable, because really it's creating a dynamic where anybody who wants to buy anybody who's actually really good and really elite, the price is going to be prohibitive. It feels like Spurs are helping aid the breaking of the market with this. You have thoughts on maybe the quality the players are getting, but the way prices have just once again gone to another level.

10:20Yeah, Daniel Levy must be spinning in his living grave, seeing the money that's, you know, I assume he was always the guy. But, you know, you had Joe Lewis behind him, I'm sure. The pressure was on him to stay within budget, and now it's this thing. I mean, it's just, that's, they're heading towards 200 million. Now that said, they've still got Jed Spence on the wing. So, you know, that brings you down your average a little bit. It is nuts. And like, we've talked about it many times, many seasons in the past. But like, know your customer. When that phone call comes in from a Premier League team.

11:01now these are premier league purchases between clubs but like going to europe or the continent i mean the price has to at least double when it's oh premier league there's a premier league club on the line for you mr sporting director it's absolutely insane bonkers nuts and i'd have so much trouble buying players in this market if if i was responsible for purchasing players for arsenal and yet i think it's just where it's going to be i mean how is anybody going to turn around to arsenal and say uh we hear you morgan rogers isn't worth 130 million um and we're not going to ask you for that based on Tonali and fucking Mateus Hernandez.

11:53And like, it's just, what hope do you have to run a tight ship? So he's going to have to sneak around the swimming pool and get that wallet and American Express card out of dad's pocket, our Josh. And I mean, they've been brave about making big purchases in the past, but like it causes me pain. I know we're not supposed to care about the money, but it just feels all wrong where we're going to have to be this summer if we're going to get the players. And we usually do. If Mikel is a particular player he's set on, I mean, it feels like nine times out of ten, that summer's player is the player we end up with.

12:35Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, the Elliot Anderson fee, obviously,$116 million in the city,$100 million for Tenali,$85 million for Fernandez. the midfield market in particular looks quite remarkable. And we've been linked with Bruno Grimorich, and you could say, well, gosh, this will be his 29-year-old season. He's going to be expensive for a player in that age bracket. But suddenly you say, well, he's got two years left. If you can get that guy for$65 million, yes, that's an older age bracket than you want to be in. but you're starting to talk about half the price of an elite prime age midfielder to get an elite late prime age midfielder and by the way maybe you get lucky and this is a guy who like some is in his prime in 34 at 34 years old you don't know i mean you don't want to bank on that but my point is 65 million for a 28 going on 29 year old player is something you would not have entertained four years ago now you're getting a 50 discount because what would 24 year old Bruno Glimmerich be coming from Newcastle right now?

13:41Be more than Tonali. He'd be more than Tonali. He'd probably be more than Elliot Anderson because I think he's a better player than both of them. So to me, Paul, all of a sudden, a move like that almost looks savvy financially in light of what an elite midfield player is going to cost. And, you know, you could speculate on someone like Ayubuadi, I guess, or you could go more value-oriented like to an Alex Scott. So do you have a preference there? I mean, I like Alex Scott as a player. Maybe that is the sort of savvy move in the market, but I don't think he's going to be particularly cheap either.

14:16Yeah. I mean, Elliot Anderson looks like a very good player. And it's weird. In the space of two weeks, that no longer looks expensive. It doesn't sound expensive. It looks, you know, I saw him playing alongside Declan Rice yesterday, nowhere close to my eye. and yet the fee doesn't seem ridiculous anymore. The adjustment is going up. I guess American sports, the prices thrown around can be huge too. So Josh, Stan aren't too freaked out about this stuff. I think in recent years they've been relatively brave about spending big money on the right player. So maybe it's not an Arsenal concern, but it does feel it's getting into ridiculous territory.

15:11And I keep going back to Morgan Rodgers because I think that's the question du jour. And Aston Villa are now going to push it even further, you would imagine, than where they thought the number might be. 24, isn't he 24 still at this point? Yeah? Who? Rodgers. is he 24 I think that's right I think that's I think that's where he's at and like he's 23 going on 24 he'll be 24 this month so he's 23 until he's 24 that's how this works yeah yeah okay close enough so like the one thing you'd say for it is if he pans out we have absolutely got him for prime territory as these prices inch up and there's no reason why would Premier League prices ever go down right so So, yeah, you know, Declan Rice once felt expensive, not to us, but to the rest of the world.

16:08Now it's an afterthought, even for the rest of the world. So if you're a team that's sitting sixth or fifth and you think you could someday be a title winner, obviously you have to think about the age range of what you're buying and how you get better over time. If you are the current title winner, and I want to just reiterate to everybody listening, we are currently the holders. We are the champions of England. We won the Premier League. and you're trying to improve on that team, you may not be quite as focused at the top end on age range. You don't want to lose sight of that completely and drop down to eighth when everybody ages out of prime.

16:43But if Alex Scott is 65, 70 million, 80 million, which is what Bournemouth is briefing now, and Tenali's 100 million, and Fernandez is 85 million, and Elliott Anderson, who he's good, he's not what Rice was, is 116 million. And even an Ayubuadi could be 50 or 60 million. To me, all of a sudden, a Bruno Guimaraes, who I think is better than all of them. I mean, granted, I may be higher on him than others, but I think he is as good or better than every single player we just named. And if you can get him for, in some cases, half, like in the case of an Elliot Anderson, close to half, you know 30 million less than mateas fernandez 35 million less or 40 million less than tonali like it's at some point that age to price well well well elliot the age curve smith well look when we were when we were eighth trying to get back to to even fourth yeah yeah yeah there was a time horizon here but now we're just trying to stay at the top and that has different requirements.

17:47Now, you know, we also have a Miles Lewis-Gelly. We have a Max Downman. So you could say if the goal is to start to let those guys become the core of our team, having 27, 28-year-old midfielders isn't the worst thing in the world, right? It isn't the worst thing in the world if an Odegaard gives way to Downman in two seasons and if a Bruno Guimaraes starts to give way to Miles even in one and one and a half seasons and they share that role. That's not a bad construction of your team. You can average 24 years per age across your squad by having everybody at 24 or having a barbell with really young and some mature and then a bunch of people in the middle.

18:27And when you've got the time, when you've had a few seasons, that's the beautiful thing about squad building and time and, you know, Arteta working us through five levels and the changes behind this. Like what I'm sensing, well sensing is a weak word what we're all seeing is changes in the backroom staff it's almost like he's reloading and ready to go again for the next stage and you know he said there were five stages or level and back then he was saying he was ahead of plan we're probably at level four and a half heading to five and he's inventing a couple more stages because we've still got to get this this Champions League and although we got in the got to the final against PG we clearly still have levels to go in terms of our attacking production and our different ways of playing so there are levels to go here and it feels like we're reloading getting ready to go again and getting the right balance between Younger and to your point yeah you'd take somebody slightly less annoying than Bruno Fernandes but with that same level of creativity in this team.

19:39And yeah, half price a little older. Yeah, you can absorb one or two of those guys. Yeah, I mean... You got to go where the value is sometimes. Like there's always an inefficiency somewhere in the market. I think that's what you're talking to. And at the moment, the inefficiency is prime age or coming into prime age midfielders are ridiculously expensive, which means somebody else is relatively cheap. I love him to pair with a Rice. I think Rice and Bruno, you get a lot of two-way capability from both of those players. And you can then stick a 10 in front of them and you've got a really, not a 10, but a more attacking eight, whether that's a Morgan Rodgers or an Ezra, an Odegaard, whoever it is.

20:22With Zubomendi, you have a bit less of the ball progression, a bit less of the vision up the pitch. Now, the irony with Zubomendi is the closer he gets to goal, the more effective he seems to be. I just think that deep-lying playmaker thing, a role we used to talk about a lot that we don't seem to talk about much anymore, I think Bruno can be that. And I think that's a thing that we could benefit from. You know? Yeah. Alright. You go. You go. But then you have the question of Morgan Rogers and like, once again, the thing that scares me than Morgan Rogers is, if Tenali's$100 million, Morgan Rogers is$150 million.

20:59But the problem is Morgan Rogers isn't 150 million because that would be a bad price for the player so what the heck do you do there uh it stands credit card like mindset wise i think i'm with you that's how i feel but we're gonna have to let that go um that's what he's gonna cost he is back to being 24 you could get six great years out of him and you just swallow and move on I think I do think I can see why he makes all sorts of sense for us and if you decide that's the profile that you're looking for in the way you want to play there's not many alternatives to how Morgan Rodgers plays I mean you've mentioned other really good midfielders but they have you playing in a different way like we wouldn't have to persuade each other that Bruno Fernandes is a completely different style of midfielder.

21:54Bruno, Guimaraish, let's just be clear. Yeah, Guimaraish is a completely different style of midfielder. Because Bruno Fernandes is a completely different style of midfielder. Yeah, yeah. He is a bit too old in my view. Yeah, okay. So, like, that just gives you, it is a different style of player. Like, everyone we've mentioned is different to Morgan Rodgers, and he has his own way of playing. So I don't know how you back off. The problem for us in negotiations is I don't know how you back off Morgan Rodgers to somebody else because nobody else is going to do what you want. Yeah. It is such an interesting time in the market for Arsenal because I think people still have this mindset like we're Arsenal from six seasons ago and we should just be able to go into the market, find what we need and get it and act swiftly and decisively.

22:49and have not really clocked the fact that it's getting harder and harder and harder to find players that improve us. And, you know, what you don't want to do is you don't want to use this window as a chance to spend a lot of money without getting better. You know, I kind of controversially last summer said, if we bought no one last summer, we would challenge for the title. I believed that. Now, would that have been borne out? Maybe. I mean, maybe. I don't know. But, well, maybe not because of the sack injury and Kai not being available. But my point is, if we buy no one this summer, we will challenge for the title again.

23:32So anyone we buy has to move the needle and theoretically move the needle on our chance to maybe win the Champions League, but also to repeat as Premier League champions. And there just aren't a lot of players like that. I would never have considered a Bruno Gimera's profile at his cost and age and contract situation and all the things he does four seasons ago. But for the moment we're in now, I think he makes sense. Morgan Rodgers, Morgan Rodgers is probably one of the most talented players in the Premier League that might move teams this summer. But everybody has a price in my mind. Because at the point you're willing to pay$140 million for Morgan Rodgers, what I would ask you is, well, what does Vinny Jr.

24:11cost? You know, what does Bradley Barkala cost? What does someone cost who can definitively move the needle for us? And what else can you do? See, when people talk about money, Paul, in football, I think sometimes they just think, well, it's not my money. Who cares? And there is a point to that. I agree. But there is an opportunity cost. What I mean is by spending that money on that player, there is some other player you won't buy or some other spending you won't make. And the question is, when the prices get out of control and get too high, what could you have done otherwise with that money? And as good as I think Rodgers is, he's still that player where, like, can I say it this way?

24:53And I'm borrowing from Blavich on Twitter who said this, but if we buy Bruno Gimoresh, we know the exact role he plays and we know exactly how we think he improves us. if we buy Morgan Rogers some of how he improves us is speculative is he a left winger for us is he a new type of 8 quite different from Odegaard or even as a what is his role how does it fit with us so I just think Paul there is a price at which the speculation on what he adds may not be worth the other things we could go and do instead to strengthen the team even though I adore the player and I think he's a huge talent does that make any sense?

25:33Yes, it does. But I'm going to try and make a meta point, an uber point. I'm going to try and make a cogent argument for why I disagree. While I think there's lots of merits in that argument. but Mikel Arteta has shown over the last few seasons that he's seeing where football's going and it wasn't understood because when you're doing something new that hasn't been seen before everybody thinks what's he doing and why is he doing that and why doesn't he do the thing we're already doing but I think we heard pretty much all last season so many coaches and so many knowledgeable commentators around football saying, actually, Mikel's right.

26:17The game isn't getting more physical. The Premier League is getting more physical. Taller players, the way we built a structure and a spine that's for our off-ball, rest-defense, shape-focused basics that we kind of got panned for a little bit is now de rigueur. Everybody is like, well, you got to be able to play, you know, the set-piece focus. All of the things he's brought in over the last 12 to 18 months that are finally shining and have won the Premier League are going to become the way of playing or the way that you have to be able to play against. And it's going to be this polarity in the Premier League.

27:05And I think he's not looking at Morgan Rodgers as another attacking player, or a really good attacking player. I think, again, he's looking to shift how he seems this team playing in the Premier League and the Champions League, and that that ability to drive with the ball and with power is pretty unique to Morgan Rodgers, that there isn't another alternative. You're right, you know how Bruno Guimoresh plays, but that's not where Arteta is going next, and potentially we're looking back in 12 months time and everybody's saying, we need to now be able to play like this Arsenal, I don't know what version we're on, 5.0 under Arteta is playing.

27:50So no, I don't think, sure, Vinny's exciting. Bruno's a good player. These other guys, good players. Barcola, sure, I want him as a winger, but he's not the Morgan Rodgers part. It's the Arteta 5.0 portion that we will see play out next year. It's not just the player. It's where he's taking football. That's a really, I mean, I think that's a really fair observation, which is that there's probably another evolution coming. And he understands what profiles he needs to execute that evolution to allow that to develop. And if we don't know that, we're just picking players we think fit roles based on how we've played before without necessarily envisioning how we're going to play going forward.

28:44Player X is as good as player Y, but player Y changes how Arsenal plays football in 2026, 2027. And that's what Arteta has up on his drawing board. what you know what i think is also clear is that sometimes though arteta arsenal burda all of all of them just like all of us are guilty of doing things in the moment based on very limited you know information or availability to pivot like the eza signing is a great example of kai got injured we had been looking at eza we weren't convinced we had about one day to make a decision and we pulled the trigger and to this day it could be argued that we're still sort of figuring out how to live with him as a player in our system and how to get the most out of him.

29:30Now, again, I think we definitely got some good stuff out of him, but there's going to be an integration period for any new player. I'm really excited in some respects to see how some of the players who we integrated this past season get further integrated this season. You know, I think we could see an even better as a, I think we could see an even better Zubimendi who was probably better in the first half of last season than we remember because he fell off quite dramatically in the second half of last season. There's an opportunity to do different things with Yoko Ress than we've done. I think Miles in midfield is an innovation we saw towards the tail end of last season that we will see more of.

30:04Max is not getting, he's saying he's getting older. I mean, we're all getting older, but he's getting older in the way only someone who is that young can get. But, you know, he will be in the plan. So there's already a lot that we're working with that will evolve how we play before we even sign anyone. I want to talk about Junior Krupy and some attacking targets and when Arsenal will start to move and whether you have any panic level about that. But first, I want to let you know that if you are moving around the planet to different locations, that will cause you to have trouble consuming the streaming services that you already pay for.

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