Transfer Window Regrets Ahead of Big Chelsea Matchup

35:33Lewis Ambrose:so they gave us two more weeks or 10 more days to do something and I think at that point to me the aim was not to sign a superstar anymore I think Arsenal needed to sign a player who could offer them something different on the left wing reliably and it didn't have to be Vinicius Jr. or Julian Alvarez level of player anymore and that doesn't mean that Malik Fafana would have been right or and I don't I don't think a player moved that I'm talking about in that last 10 days of the window and it's really hard but I think Arsenal have left themselves a player short on the left-hand side because there wasn't that backup plan for well what do we do in that last month if that doesn't happen and that doesn't happen and that doesn't happen and they didn't go in for Barcola and the other option I guess would have been to pull the plug should they have gone big for Marco?

36:23Was he the clear fit that yes, it's a roll of the dice at that price, but is the one that could have potentially had the level?

36:31Lewis Ambrose:It's the, I think it's the same I think it's a better fit, maybe for the position, but it's the same thing as Rodgers, right? Like Arsenal liked this player and thought this was a good footballer who clearly Arsenal inquired there was an interest in him playing on the left wing for Arsenal, and then they were told what the price was, and Arsenal decided no way. Not worth it. Didn't go near it. And it's the same thing that happened with Rodgers. So I was a bit surprised maybe that over that last month of the window after it was clear, Rodgers was off the table. Kenan Yildiz wasn't going to happen.

37:07Lewis Ambrose:Vinicius Jr. wasn't going to happen. That Arsenal didn't look at maybe re-entering that conversation for Bradley Barclay. But they obviously decided he wasn't worth that amount of money. So, all right, Tim, I want to get your take on the numerical side of this. I'll go on record. I don't think bringing in a body was worth doing. I can tell you this right now. If we had signed a Malik Fafana, for example, who's dropping out of the squad against Chelsea? Ezza or Solis or, I mean, who are you? Miles? And if Saliba and Timber are back, and I get it, Elliot, if they're back, someone else will be out.

37:44Like, I do understand. But here's what happens when you sign a body. And you can thank Nani and Yoko Ress for being a part of our title-winning season. But Yokoz has played zero minutes through two games, and Nani didn't get off the bench at Aston Villa, but Kai Osaka went 90 minutes. When most of us were saying, he shouldn't see the pitch until October after the World Cup, he played 90 minutes at Villa. Kai Havertz, 500 minutes last season. 90 minutes both games because Mikel didn't want to use Yokoz for some reason. So if you bring in a body, do you just get a body Mikel doesn't want to use, or do you shunt somebody else out of the team?

38:14I do think it had to be a ceiling-raising talent. if last season's left side platoon was Leo and Nelly, this season's left side platoon is Solis and Eze. You could convince me that is as good. I'm not saying I know that for a fact, but you could convince me that that is as good because Martinelli, as much as I adore him, did not give us almost anything in the league last season. Now, to be fair to him, he did give us something in the Champions League. And I do think having no sprinter on the left makes us a little one-dimensional. But Tim, I'm not sure I connect to the idea that numerically we're short.

38:47I just connect to the idea that, to Lewis's earlier point, elite talent-wise we are short. If you say our best front three is Saka, Kai, Ezza, are we going to say that right now? Saka, Kai, Ezza. And you compare that to the biggest clubs in the world in their front three, it isn't comparable. That's not me saying I don't rate those players, it's not me saying I don't love those players, I do. But it is not comparable. Now those other big clubs have all kinds of problems behind that front line. But they have not struggled to find the talent they wanted. Liverpool have not struggled to find it and bring it in.

39:24Not that it's done them much good. City have not struggled to find it and bring it in. Manchester United, Cunha, Mbumo, Sesco, right? João Pedro at Chelsea, a player that I think is really good and would have suited us. Like, these clubs have found the players. Again, I'm not opining on whether the price was right. I'm not opining on whether that's gotten them where they want to go because we won the title. But we haven't done it. But numerically, do you think that we are short? Because we're leaving a lot of players out of matchday squads already. Yeah, if you look at the depth chart, there's at least two players for every position, right?

39:56And actually, you can move those counters around a bit. I don't think we're short on numbers at all. That's what we did. Every window has a bit of a different theme to it. And last summer, it's really obvious what happened. We got loads of injuries. It stopped us competing for the title. and Mikel Arteta saw that walnut and said, meet Mr. Sledgehammer, basically, and brought in a load of depth players, including, you know, Eze, which was clearly not a deal he wanted to do necessarily at the beginning of the summer. But the second Havertz went down. In fact, I'd liken the Eze signing to Konza. You know, I know they're great friends anyway, but it's like, we're going to do this because of an injury.

40:37And actually, that's a big thing to do because of an injury to commit. that much money to guys you can't you're not going to be able to sell or get any resale for so um last summer was the depth summer we don't we don't really need to do that anymore like imagine if in midfield we'd like kept nor guard and then bought another lower mid table central midfielder for 10 million like what would the point of that have been basically so we we we don't need the numbers that there's max dalman there as well i i think we're right not to mention him too much not to ratchet up the pressure but i wouldn't be surprised if he's able to contribute more than he did last season um in his age 17 season ses fabregas played 2100 minutes max is going into his age 17 season now he's about five months younger but still like yeah he can play some would you have kept ethan though given given as a kind of moving into the left wing group now and that means no i wouldn't because i think michael marino is going to be like the other guard backup i'm more than fine with that i think michael marino adds to our you know our depth chart as it were both as a as a striker and as a number 10 um i also think he's a fabulous sub to bring on in just about every game state as well like if you need a goal put marino on because he'll win headers.

41:59But if like Monday night, you need to keep the ball, he can do that as well. I think he's such a great player to have back. Again, that's not to hand wave the fact that we should have brought someone in or anything like that. But no, I wouldn't have because I just think Ethan needs to play. And I saw there's a recall clause in January, which I think is the smart thing to do. But at this point, I think we are at the stage where we have to look after his development because I think another season where he doesn't play much I think you're really in danger of either the player just stagnating or else the player just becoming unhappy and those two things have the same result I do think there comes a stage with younger players where they've just got to go and play and you've either got to sell them or if you think they're good enough you've got to loan them so no I wouldn't have done that I think Marino kind of adds to that depth chart as it were I think it's also worth addressing Elliot like for example a lot of people I think reasonably asking well should we sold should we have sold Martinelli should we have sold Trossard I'm still of the opinion even without bringing players in we should have done that yes a lot of people complain with some justification about us needing to get better at selling this is what it looks like guys this is the last chance to get money for Martinelli because he's got like an option for a year after this right and I don't know whether the club hold that option whether it has to meet he has to play a certain number of games to trigger it but basically this is the last chance to get money for him and if you want us to be better sellers yeah sometimes it's got to be a little bit uncomfortable maybe that one is um same with Trossard I think you could make a really good case that maybe we should have just kept him he could have contributed but again okay but then you're writing off 25 million pounds and you've kind of got to get it somewhere else so if we don't sell those players maybe we do have to sell Lewis skelly and stuff like that so i'm still happy with i don't say getting rid of but with selling those players and kind of you know i guess keeping our powder dry a bit i do think we deserve a bit of credit as well for holding our nerve a little bit when i was starting to see names like sharder and and i i was a bit like yeah good good players got no problem with them but just a guy last summer last summer i would have been okay with either of them to be honest but it's just like i was like please don't do that please don't do that because that's going to shatter a lot of my illusions about what this is really about so i'm i'm you know i have partial credit um you know big birthday cake well done you tried but for at least holding their nerve and not panicking and what i hope is that in january if there is a market opportunity we'll have the funds clearly we'll have the funds because of what we were willing to do but i think is just as important as that i think a lot of our competitors won't because a lot of our competitors did do all the panic signings some of our competitors are addicted to transfers and just keep doing them and you know chelsea are going to have to buy a midfielder of some sort in january liverpool will be occupied in other areas like i don't want to do the whole jam tomorrow thing because i don't know but i'd like to think if you know semenyo came up last january right if something like that presents itself junior crew p maybe then i think we're quite well positioned to do it at least look i would forgive anybody listening to this rolling their eyes because it's been three years of trying to buy an elite attacker and not doing saying oh i'm sure it'll happen in january though like i'm not saying like that will definitely happen like that's best case scenario stuff and the best case scenario doesn't always happen yeah i'm not going to shade you there i'm just saying i understand if there are people that are that are feeling cynical about that like i i completely understand it but like if a junior croup is available in january what happens if you buy an ilman and jai or a shada or a fafana you don't really leave yourself a squad place to to like i'd rather have the option to find the ceiling razor and to be fair i mean if you said to me going into the summer your choice is shada off the left or as a being tried as an actual left-sided option probably rather or just try Ezza there.

46:15I mean, it was just last summer I was sitting here going, I think Ezza can do what Leo did off the left, but better. And we really never saw that tested. Well, if I thought that last summer, I should at least be internally consistent about thinking it could still work this summer. If you told me last summer, I could have Eberge, Ezza, or Morgan Rodgers to play off the left, and Rodgers is double the price, I think I would have been screaming, do the Ezza deal. We never really saw it. So I still think there's a construction of this where Solis is good. He gives us more than Martinelli did last season because Martinelli had a down season.

46:48And Ezzo works as a left-sided attacker in the way Leo worked, but maybe with a little bit more class. Now, I prefer him there personally. I don't like him century. I don't think it works. I agree. And by the way, that's the sunniest view. I'm not saying I don't... Look, we failed to get the ceiling razor. That was the job. We failed to do it. And fundamentally, if you look at Andrea Berta, the club wanted Sesko. he moved us to Yokares. Nani was offered to him via an agent. He went for that one. He's worked through intermediaries this summer and not gotten the deals done in attack that he needed.

47:21You know, there are big questions and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes. But so much of what a director of football does is opaque. And so I have an inability to accurately, clearly and cleanly analyze it. When we watch football, some of us are better at watching it than others I accept. But you have the ability to analyze what your eyes see. You just don't see much of what happens in transfers. And some of the stories you hear about transfers, like it's stuff that you say that can't be true. It's that crazy. So let's do this. Let's take a break for brands. I do want to talk about the rest of the teams and what they've done in the window.

47:56And then we'll save just a little bit of time in the end for a Chelsea preview. But we'll have a Mikel Arteta presser tomorrow. So Friday Night Clive will be a deeper dive on the Chelsea game. But let's definitely give you some brands because like you're probably sitting here at this point saying, I don't know who to get my business to. Okay, here's who. This podcast episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy. Just drop in some details about yourself and see if you're eligible to save money when you bundle your home and auto policies.

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49:40Like, a lot of weird stuff happened in the tail end of this window. City, obviously, an entirely new midfield. Will that work? Will that not? We'll find out. I think the way I find myself landing on the window with the way everything went is that City put themselves very much back in the position to be our primary challengers, and everybody else left themselves with some big weaknesses that they just didn't address, much in the same way we feel we didn't address that big left-sided attacker. I mean, Chelsea have midfield issues. Liverpool have midfield and defensive issues, right? United, they look reasonably balanced with some of the deals they did.

50:13So, you know, that's an interesting one. But they've got Champions League. I'm not sure they're deep enough. I do like Baleba as a runner to support the midfielders they have. But do you have an assessment of who comes out looking like they're principally our challengers? or any thoughts on the hilarity of what ensued in the end of the window here?

50:32Lewis Ambrose:Yeah, I saw you mentioned Everton fans and what happened with Balogun. I did see one Everton fan post that he's very jealous of Balogun because he wishes he could walk away from Everton. He can't. Yeah, it was a really funny one. Someone screenshotted a guy who got a banning order from Everton. He got banned for bad behavior and there's a picture of him and he's smiling and he's like, look how happy he is. He knows his life was just made happier forever because he's banned from going to Aberdeen. Anyway, yeah, go ahead. Yeah, the Merseyside dynamic definitely has a touch of Arsenal-Tottenham to it, doesn't it?

51:10Lewis Ambrose:I think who came out on top? Well, Manchester City. And we're talking about that left wing. There are holes in that squad too. I think who comes out as the big challenges is always going to be Manchester City because they have Erling Haaland. And when you have a guy who could score 40 goals in a season for you, which he could, then you are automatically challengers. I think Haaland, with Shirky behind him especially, they look fantastic. I think Shirky is maybe the key player in this era of Premier League of man marking and low blocks and no space between the lines. a player who can move like he can with and without the ball and can use both feet and has the sort of personality and charisma to see a tight gap and not care and just swivel his hips and back himself to work his way through it and be able to take it on the left or the right.

52:05Lewis Ambrose:I think he's, you know, he breaks games open and to have him behind a player as good as Erling Haaland gives Manchester City a chance against anybody. but there are holes there too I think we all know Pep Guardiola's not there I think bigger than that is Rodri and Bernardo Silva not being there to be honest I think if you lose Pep Guardiola but keep Rodri and Bernardo Silva at the top of their game you through experience and quality still have retained the ability to control games they've had to replace that entire midfield essentially I think they've replaced them with some good players I think the fees don't really matter, but I think to actually replace them and in this Premier League be able to control games often enough to win enough of them is a really, really big challenge.

52:55Lewis Ambrose:I think we saw it with us at Villa on Monday night. We replaced incredibly because the system is king. We replaced all three of our midfielders with, as we've talked about already, three quality midfielders and Villa didn't get a sniff because the players we brought on were brilliant. And because the system is brilliant, they didn't get anywhere near us. Not a shot in the last, after 70 minutes, I think. They didn't take another shot. So we are now the only team in the league that can do that. Manchester City went to a sort of in-transition Crystal Palace, who have lost some players who didn't have Ismail Assar, have lost Oliver Glasner in charge as well the other night.

53:36Lewis Ambrose:Lacroix. Yeah, at the back, not as stable. And Palace weren't great. sorry City weren't great for the first five or ten minutes and Palace had a few chances 1-0 and 2-0 Palace had a few chances there are ways to get at Man City they don't look great at right back they've got a brand new midfield that has to figure stuff out and be as good as Rodri and Bernardo Silva it's not going to happen so I think they'll score loads of goals but I think there'll be too many games where City kind of look open going the other way I think Chelsea have that Manchester United thing from last season I think that's my big unknown for me over the course of this season is Man United last year played 40 games in all competitions we played 40 by mid-February you could see in March and April that Manchester United were fresh and able to play the same 11 every week and they'd all clicked and they were all enjoying their football and they were winning games that they wouldn't have won in October and November and I think that will happen this year to Man United I think that will catch up with them completely the question is do Chelsea benefit from not having Europe and I think it's probably important for Arsenal to have a nice cushion over Chelsea when we get to March when they do have those fresh legs they don't have any midweek games and Alonso's system is something they're all used to and he knows what his best team is and they can just sort of roll from weekend to weekend I think Arsenal need to and obviously Sunday Sunday's game could be a really really big thing for that to create some sort of gap early on yeah so to me it's I know that there's that midfield question with Chelsea I know everyone's saying that they can't defend it's two games and I'm not willing to sit here and say that Xabi Alonso won't figure out how to get that team to defend by December because they've been a bit open in two games I don't think it's enough at all to draw that conclusion.

55:33Lewis Ambrose:Moises Caicedo's not been fit yet. I think if you put him in front of that defence, you immediately get better defensively. And I think the players will get used to Alonso's stuff as they go on. I think they signed two full-backs or wing-backs and Chavarria and... Palestra. And Palestra over the course of the summer. And neither of them have started a game yet. So we're talking about a back five. But if you talk about a back five and Caicedo in front of it as a back six. Chelsea have actually not started a game yet with either of their wingbacks or their best central midfielder. I think that defense will be absolutely fine by Christmas.

56:10Lewis Ambrose:It depends a little bit on how well everything else clicks. And like I said, I think Arsenal need to create a nice little buffer between them and Chelsea between now and then. And we'll see. New year comes around and I think Chelsea and City will be the two that are close. Chelsea have a bit of a hellish run late April early May where they go to Brighton host City go to Liverpool go to Spurs um you know that's a tricky run uh and you know hopefully you know who knows maybe they even have a rearranging there due to an FA Cup tie or something they'll be onto their third manager by then as well yeah that's another point yeah exactly I do think the fact that they didn't get Camara is great I mean they can address that in January but between now and then they look light there and you could say no they got the numbers but two of the numbers are Romeo Lavia and Rhys James and you know it's kind of like us relying on Tomiasu or Gabriel Jesus like those are players that just can't stay fit and like I get no joy even though they're rivals like I like Rhys James actually um I get no joy from seeing his career ruined by injury you know or Romeo Lavi a young player who had so much promise but those players just don't look like they can stay fit so we'll see I mean what about you Tim I do think Chelsea are a problem just because I've said this so many times on the pod maybe I should just stop saying it but like to Lewis's point if a pretty mediocre United can parlay a 40-game season into third place?

57:31What can a superior Chelsea with a superior manager do with one game a week? I would think that they could be a problem. So do you have a thought on all the spending? I mean, Miguel Delaney has actually done some really good reporting that I recommend you seek out. And we're going to get Giant Gunnar Matt on the pod to talk about this because he's a finance guy and he can help us break it down. But like how much private equity has gotten involved in football and basically an infusion of private equity money and transfers. But, you know, with bond prices falling and rates spiking and, you know, the cost of money going up that there's a potential time bomb there from a from a debt standpoint.

58:11So a lot of stuff that I'm not an expert enough to really discuss. And like I said, we'll do that in a separate pod. But do you have a thought just on the overall landscape of ridiculous fees, huge money, and whether anybody actually put themselves in position to be any better than we are? Yeah, lots of teams seem to have lots of gaps. I mean, talking about Man City, who's their backup striker for earning Ireland?

58:34Lewis Ambrose:I guess Semenya, probably. Yeah. By the way, can we say this could be curtain for Foden? because it could be, and maybe I'm wrong about this, but it could be Buati, Enzo, and Elliot Anderson with Cherky playing on the right. And that gives them a little bit more robustness through midfield and it lets them let Cherky just drift inside and be mercurial and do whatever he wants without having to focus as much on the other side of the game. Between Semenyo, Doko, and Njai as well. Those options are wide. Anyway, sorry, Tim, go ahead. Yeah, yeah. um like general thoughts on uh on the transfer window i mean well the thing i tweeted this morning or yesterday morning after the deadline is everyone spent loads of money and no one's happy that that's kind of what it feels like like just crazy and it also feels like um the maybe the richer the league gets the stupider it gets sometimes and yeah yeah and i guess on one hand like there's loads of intra premier league business now and in one respect that's because the premier league is its own economy it's a super league in like any other name i do have concerns about what that means to the balance of european football i think we're seeing in european competitions but that only seems to be getting wider and wider um again i can't remember if it's miguel or maybe adam crafton was tweeting out like the number of teams outside england who've done transfers for more than 40 million pounds and it's like it's the super clubs and that's it basically it's like psg even they haven't done loads of them barca for anthony gordon and then like bayern whoever i don't even know who bayern bought don't care um but but um yeah so like i i do worry about the sustainability of that about the premier league being its own kind of its own little island economically and and that's getting more and more the case but i do think there's quite a lot of stupid stuff done i do think a lot of teams just seem addicted to transfer like chel i think chelsea did something like 13 in 15 out this summer 42 million spent 409 million sold is what yeah i mean and what's really crazy and it really started to wind me up and one of the reasons i'm really glad the windows closed is because while the windows open that's all anyone cares about and so all of a sudden chelsea who've been a complete basket case and finished 10th last year are like held up as this smoothly operated club just because they do loads and loads of transfers in and out and that's good and they sell loads and loads of players and it's like right that's not what you're supposed to do like you're supposed to sell well you're not supposed to have 50 players and try to sell 25 of them and succeed at selling 18 of them like that's that's no good either and it does feel a bit like clubs have really bought into that as well and that's like we've got to do something like we've got to do something but it doesn't matter whether it's like something good we just have to do something like other clubs had more exciting windows than we did but when the dust settles do they have the squad yeah it reminds me of um do you ever watch those like antique shows perhaps in the uk they're a bit more popular on daytime tv and like you watch them sometimes and you're just like some people just have too much money do you know what i mean it's like do you even know why you're bidding like 20 000 pounds for this vase that you've just been told is worth that and it's that's kind of what the premier league yeah that's kind of what the premier league feels like it's just like we're gonna tell you this guy's expensive oh expensive equals good i must have do you know what i mean like is tottenham that's their whole window 100 million tonali 85 million marmo 75 million savio and well 75 million option on mudrick like what are they doing the weird thing about tottenham was initially when we did the um when we did the power rankings episode before the season started like Like...

1:02:47I thought Tottenham, they'd overpaid for everyone, but it's like fair, justifiable given there. But what I was kind of attracted isn't the right word, but they did a lot of business early. So like Tonali, Fernandes, they were through the door. Van Hecker, they got, you know, they got rid of their Vicario and Romero, who I'm really sad to see them go. Two fantastic Arsenal players that were sold this summer. same issue with uh chelsea getting a real keeper too by the way just yeah yeah yeah yeah maybe like robert sanchez could have just held on till maybe this weekend to have um a bit of a mare

1:03:26Lewis Ambrose:that robert sanchez didn't hold on no no no not at all like why they needed the evidence of the fulham game i've got no idea particularly because the martinez deal has been there to do for a very long time villa have been trying to sell him for like three summers but but then all of a sudden Tottenham just went mad and started buying more and more players and it was just like oh I kind of thought you did the splurge at the beginning of the window and you're trying to settle everything down now all of a sudden three of your players who can't really expect to go anywhere better want to leave and you're like overpaying for like they just suddenly went mad and it's um yeah I'd I stick with my initial conclusion everyone's spending loads and loads of money and everyone seems to be increasingly unhappy about it, both clubs and supporters.

1:04:16I don't know. Maybe I'm being overwrought, but it doesn't feel healthy to me. It feels a bit dangerous. I mean, the interesting thing is we still wind up as number four in the top net spend. Liverpool at 219, Ipswich at 190, Spurs at 176, Arsenal at 136, Coventry 129, City 125. five um united after them and like i said chelsea leading the does that include the martinelli sale yeah because that hasn't quite gone through has it i guess probably not that's a good point so when the martinelli sale is is reported yeah it'll be about 70 which would put us much more mid table um chelsea are currently at negative 67 net spend meaning they made 67 million so yes you are correct actually that that's going to put us sort of behind fulham ahead of leads and net spend and that's not exactly the area you expect Arsenal to be.

1:05:11And to be fair, it's not the area I think we would have been had we found that elite ceiling raiser. I think we're prepared to do it. I know people who read James McNicholas, Gunnar Blog's article in The Athletic will say there was a mention of a concern about UEFA SCR, blah, blah, blah. But James says very clearly in that article, the club dispute that there was any concern about breaching that. And everything I've read shows that there's headroom. So I don't know where that message is coming from. Maybe it's coming from agents. Maybe it's come from people who have an interest in saying it, but the club are clearly saying they are not concerned about that breach.

1:05:43So I'm not going to give it any more thought. Look, the great thing about the window being closed is you go back to actually having to play the football and having the best players on the pitch. And as frustrated as I am, because I think it was a chance for us to really genuinely distance ourselves, to put ourselves in a position where you say, who are the clubs that can compete with us? If you have a Julian Alvarez up front, If you have a Vinny Jr., if you have, in my opinion, like a Bradley Barkala, are you in a position where you say, who's going to come compete with our squad? Because in two-thirds of the pitch, no one can.

1:06:14I mean, you're really into that PSG level of can they do it? And they have the benefit, by the way, of probably having a good 12 players. But they all play 1 ,000 minutes, so they're ready when it matters. But we didn't do that. But now we have to go forward with what we have. and Lewis, we kind of get to be our first test post-window with everybody furious we didn't improve our attack is the darlings of the transfer window who bought everybody. I mean, they then wound up selling Enzo and not replacing, so maybe not the darlings, but it's such an interesting contrast. New manager, new players, you know, in a lot of positions, new system versus Arsenal looking very similar to who we have been, you know, and also an interesting contrast of styles because Chelsea haven't wanted the ball.

1:06:58They had about 26 % possession against Brighton. They concede a lot of chances. They concede a lot of goals, but they're fantastic on the counter and they score a lot themselves. As everybody knows, we're a bit goal shy and defensively great. So this is a huge contrast in styles. Two teams that don't like each other particularly much either. And I'm fine with that because they are a horrible institution. What's your overall thought on the threat Chelsea pose and how we'll confront them?

1:07:26Lewis Ambrose:the threat they pose is you know you just mentioned on the break and and that front three I think that front three is really excellent I think they're all capable of moments I think the the the two sort of number tens in in Rodgers and Palmer especially are capable of moments and I think they kind of play around Jao Pedro as that pivot he is looking like a really complete striker to me Martinez didn't play the ball short against Brighton at all. Every kick went long. I think Chelsea, and I now expect to see the same against Arsenal on Sunday, I think Chelsea recognise Brighton have fantastic fun when you allow them to sort of activate that press.

1:08:06Lewis Ambrose:I think they had the highest number of high turnovers in the league or second or third most high turnovers in the league last season. So don't give them the option, go long. Martinez went long and he was able to go long because Jao Pedro wins the ball he's good in the air he can hold it up he can carry it he looks to be benefiting I would say from having a summer off as well him I think that's a big advantage for Chelsea weirdly that Jao Pedro and Cole Palmer weren't considered good enough to play for their national teams this summer actually means that Chelsea got their two key players in the front line with a summer off so I don't think it's a coincidence that they look really good at the moment and then you've got all the questions yeah like you say at the other end of the pitch I think this approach is really interesting had to look earlier today because I watch a lot of German football and I've seen a lot of oh that's weird Xabi Alonso and he's Spanish and he was a midfielder and he doesn't want the ball what's going on there he did the same thing at Bayer Leverkusen I think Real Madrid is its own separate entity in all regards.

1:09:16Lewis Ambrose:No one can control whatever goes on there. But Alonso took over mid-season by Leverkusen. They'd lost something like six of their first eight games of the season. Manager was sacked. Alonso came in. And in that first season, he sort of recovered and they made it to the Europa League qualification. They were in the bottom two in the league when he took over. In that first season, they had 26 league games under Alonso and they had 60 % possession in six of them and they had less than 50 % in 10 of those 26 games. In his first full season when Leverkusen won the league, they had over 60 % possession in 23 of their league games and less than 50 % in six of them.

1:09:59Lewis Ambrose:He came in at Bayer Leverkusen. This exact narrative happened in Germany. It was, oh, why is Xabi Alonso not a manager who wants the ball? And it turned out a year later, he is. he just wants to create a stable team first I think everyone's looking at this Chelsea team and going oh they can't defend what's Xabi Alonso doing and I think Xabi Alonso is well aware that they can't defend he knew that they couldn't defend last season as well and he is going to spend this first few months of the season trying to school them in that back five that he likes to play turning them into a team that can defend before they then maybe later on in this season maybe next season go on to be a team that actually likes to have the ball a lot so I think it's a it's an interesting transition we're going to see we kind of saw something similar with Michael Arteta at Arsenal as well at the beginning there was a lot of back five there was a lot of right let's teach them how to be organized and then once we were quite good at that Arsenal were suddenly a team that could keep the ball and could go forward and score more goals again so I think a similar thing is happening with Chelsea here and I'm very glad with that in mind that we're playing them third game of the season because I think we'll see a very very different Chelsea a few months from now they obviously they've got players to hurt you on that front three especially but I think right now watching them against Brighton the other day they aren't clean in how they want to press when you push them that means you can push them back into their half I don't think they're having 26 % of the ball because they love having so little of the ball.

1:11:35Lewis Ambrose:You can push them back into their half. And once you do that, actually, that back five is just something a lot of those players haven't played. And when you've got an overlap out wide or the striker dropping off, there's a lot of confusion about who should follow those players and whose man it is now and when to pass the man over and gaps start to appear. So I think it's a really, really good time for Arsenal to play Chelsea before they, if they do, I think they will start to figure some of that stuff out. Is there not an additional context here with Chelsea not wanting the ball? They've gone 1-0 up after like 20-odd seconds against Fulham and they were 3-0 up against Brighton after about 12 minutes.

1:12:12So a lot of that feels quite game-state-y as well. They've led early in their first two games.

1:12:18Lewis Ambrose:I'd say two on them. I do think that front three, I think they'll be excellent on the break. I also thought Brighton were horrible for the goals they conceded. The first goal is, it's not like Chelsea ripped them apart on the break. The first goal is the goalkeeper drops it because he bumps into his own defender from a corner. And the second goal, Chelsea had a throw halfway through the Brighton half and threw it to João Pedro in the middle of the pitch, who had a free header to flick it on to Morgan Rodgers to get to the byline and put a cross in. I think for both of those goals, Brighton were hideous.

1:12:48Lewis Ambrose:And as Tim says, then you're a few minutes into the game, you're already two goals down. worth noting by the way though that like chelsea have given up a lot of goals but they're also much more mid-table in xg 2.7 expected goals conceded is reasonable in two games and like a lot of the goals they've conceded are just because sanchez is terrible terrible terrible so like that fixes a lot of problems right there and game state point that tim makes too you know teams are happier to to push on and throw bodies forward and throw the ball into the box because they're more desperate for a goal because they're trailing it will be interesting right if this is if this is nil-nil for a while on Sunday for 20-30 minutes, as it often is when Mikel Arteta's in charge and it's a big game, if we see a different type of Chelsea start to play.

1:13:32Well, this is the other thing, and I think it'll be an interesting test to Shabby Alonso because however frustrated people get sometimes that Mikel doesn't attack, which I don't agree with per se, teams have just played us very differently than they play anybody else. And Chelsea in particular, you know, I think are one of those teams that played us very differently. We saw how Manchester City played us last season. They just, you know, well, especially early in the season when we were good, they just sat so deep. I think fundamentally, if Xabi Alonso wants to play more expansive football, this is probably not the game we're going to see him do that.

1:14:05Tim, I know lineup chat is not the most riveting, but I kind of think it would be the same team we saw against Villa if Bruno is fit. And he wasn't pictured in training, but Mikel plays games with that, so who knows. I think Bruno will come in for Miles. I think Kansa will come in for Mascara who again also left from what it sounds like was a precautionary reasons against Villa but I think it would be the same team I guess the big decision if you agree to be Bruno and Kansa will it be Ezzar or Solis is that sort of how you see it those are the only that's the sort of only decision point there I think so yeah and I do think it will be Ezzar most likely I think Arteta will want his Premier League experience his most premier league experience players for this game for sure um i'm kind of less sure on bruno just because he wasn't pictured training to that i know that you know managing load and everything but managing load often means you don't start did it look like he was limping a bit at the end of the villa game i i i didn't see that myself granted you're probably you know i was fully enjoying the singing and i was halfway out the stadium it was it was a late game i was uh i had to get the last train but um yeah so i i if if bruno's fit yeah i could definitely see if they deem him fit enough i could definitely see him playing obviously we've got an away game in the champions league to think about on wednesday night as well um that's that's something we it comes so quickly like that first champions league game now they've changed these international breaks really really sneaks up on you and we probably didn't want an away game there if we're honest I think we'd have probably preferred um maybe uh Cabra at home to be honest but so we've got we've got the opportunity maybe to swap some of those things like if Bruno plays this game Miles can play in Naples and etc I fully expect Esri Konza to come in I think not starting him at Villa was probably partly about him being a bit behind for pre-season but I also kind of think if it had been any other ground, he might have started that game, to be honest.

1:16:21I think it was more about, like I heard you guys discussing it, I heard you discuss it with Phil and Clive before the game. For me, it was less about how would Konza cope with that, and it was more like, I just don't think Arteta would have wanted to whip the crowd up unnecessarily. As it turns out, Villa fans are very good at winding themselves up about nothing. so maybe that was a misplaced endeavour but fully expect him to come in and that'll be it I think he'll be in the team now and maybe you'll see like I don't know if we need to look after Ben White mascara right back like in Naples or something but I expect to see Eza start on the left I think Solis maybe that was his first you know welcome to the Premier League type game maybe if this was lower opposition we might still see solace it might still be seen as a as a good chance to kind of you know say okay all right write that one off but like i'm not sure chelsea's the game for that but he'll play a part um anyway most likely um i imagine expecting no change at center forward i think that'll be kai havertz again but i do think we will see jokeres in this game my take on the not using Jocares is the total speculation.

1:17:41I think they were willing to maybe throw him into a deal, potentially for Alvarez. And I think they were kind of protecting that. And now that that can't happen, I imagine we will see more of him and he'll play a part in this game, but from the bench. What do you think about that, Lewis? The Jocares thing is an interesting one. Zero minutes through the first two games, just 15 in the community shield. Kai Havertz playing an awful lot of minutes. I mean, I don't care what Mikel thinks of Jokras. I don't think he wants to run Kai Havertz into the ground this early in the season. So surely he's going to have to use him.

1:18:16Do you think that there was a pointed message there? Do you think it was fully transfer related? Where do you fall in the Jokras situation?

1:18:24Lewis Ambrose:I'd be lying if I said what Tim just said about the transfer situation hadn't crossed my mind. And I think the manager doesn't rate him. I think it's wherever people want to stand on him I don't think the manager likes him particularly I think he'll play in Napoli I think he'll probably get a lot of the Champions League games I think last season when he improved towards the end of last season his best games were still in the Champions League his best two games for Arsenal last season I thought were against Atletico Madrid he'd still struggled when his form took that uptick I felt to impose himself on some of those Premier League games, especially away from home.

1:19:05Lewis Ambrose:West Ham comes to mind as a performance. I think it was in that last run of games, that was the only one he started and it wasn't particularly good. So, yeah, I think the last... If you take the Crystal Palace game out of the equation because it was a dead rubber on the last day of the season and it was party mode and Gabriel Jesus started up front, Havertz has, I think, got seven starts in the time that Jokeres got a one, including the Community Shield in that. So, you know, Burnley, Manchester City, Newcastle at the end of last season, the Champions League final, the first three games of this season.

1:19:42Lewis Ambrose:Havertz has started all of those games. And in that time, Jokeres has started against Atletico Madrid when Havertz wasn't fit. And he started against West Ham. And that was it. So I think it's pretty clear that the manager has a preference and a first choice striker. And I agree with you too. he can't afford to just fully marginalize him though because Kai Havertz has not stayed fit and I don't by the way my opinion on Kai Havertz is I don't think we should just assume he's over whatever whatever the the medical challenges were I think we have to presume that there are some lingering issues with that knee that we don't want to test unnecessarily so like is it Mikael Marino that that's going to be the backup striker do you really think we could wind up there I think Jokeres will start in Naples and I think he'll start in the League Cup and then you've got Kai Havertz starting over the next few weeks once a week in the league, right?

1:20:35Lewis Ambrose:We've not played a midweek game yet. Well, we've played two. We've played on a Friday and a Monday but we've not played more than, what, every few days so far. That's going to start happening soon and then we're going to see Jokeres up front. And yeah, I wouldn't rule out as well seeing Marino play down the middle leading the line too. I actually thought last season there were times that Arteta was too reluctant to when Jokoros was playing every single game we knew that Marino could do that job to a decent level and I thought Arteta was too reluctant to do it I wonder if that will change I hope that will change now and we'll see we'll also see obviously if he starts getting in the team for those non-premier league games from the start if we get some sort of reaction out of Jokoros too if he's not happy about he can't be happy about his situation at the moment no so you know it's sort of very much if you if you're not happy about it over to you in Naples or in the League Cup.

1:21:26Lewis Ambrose:Go and do something about it and show the manager why you think you should be playing. Yeah, the Yorker's conversation just winds up being such a tricky one because people have very strong opinions of it. I do think what we should be able to do is be so thankful for our title and celebrate it and really enjoy everyone that contributed to it. But understand that as we move forward, we can have clear-eyed and honest discussions about the level of players. I mean, I don't think Nani is great, but Nani played a role in our title. I don't think Victor Yocrest is great, but he played a role in our title.

1:21:58So I thank them for that. But I want to be realistic about what they can offer us moving forward as our ambitions have to stay at the absolute top level. I mean, Manchester City, as much as I hate to hold them up as a paragon of virtue, because we know how they've gotten where they've gotten, allegedly, you know, they have been willing to move on from players that have helped them win stuff when they felt that they could get better. And it's been a big reason why they were able to stay at the top, I think. You know, Tim, the Yolkress situation is a weird one because it could be about the transfer stuff, as you said.

1:22:28It could be about Mikel not rating him. I mean, look, I think Mikel clearly believes Kai Havertz is the better player, and I don't think you can argue much with that. I think my issue with Yolkress is sort of understanding what a Yolkress game looks like, right? Because if it's not Coventry at home or Coventry at home when you're three goals up, and it's not Villa away when it's a tight game, what is a Yolkress game? We'll find out soon enough if that was transfer-related or not. But you also, you don't want to get into a situation where someone is big personality-wise and attention-wise, like Yolkres, is just fully cut adrift and you lose him from the group.

1:22:59Because we just don't, as we talked about earlier, don't have the numbers in the front line, I think, to marginalize anybody there. I don't see it. Yeah, sorry. Go ahead. No, no, no, please. I was going to say, I don't necessarily see it as a marginalization yet, particularly now the transfer window is closed. I think you know some of the guys you mentioned Yokarez Madueke I think we'll feel a lot better about them if Saka and Havertz stay fit and they play the roles that we kind of intended them to play which were you know rotation, backup, bench options It's a very sensible opinion The issue was last year they weren't that because of injuries we had to really rely on them and we still won the league doing that it was probably harder work than I think it would have been um but you know i i did um i put the column out today and i did a little table with like number of minutes played by saka havertz and odegaard and goals scored and in the premier league over the last three seasons all those numbers drop in concert quite quite drastically when it's like eight and a half thousand minutes we got 91 goals when that dropped by about 50 percent it went down to 74 and 71 like it's not rocket science but I do think like Maduweke coming off the bench playing cup games blah blah blah Yokerez I think will feel a lot better about those players if if those are the roles they're playing and frankly if you just look at the price points nowadays they're 50 million players right it's crazy to say it but that's premier league backup money now whereas if we were selling saka because we're a great selling club now because we just sell everyone that's what good selling is um but what would we get for him get like he'd be pushing 200 million have us i mean there's a fitness question there but remove the fitness question i think it would be very very like nine figures um you know urdegaard same thing remove the fitness you know so i think essentially those are our like 100 million attackers and they're backed up by 50 million attackers and I hope that's the kind of pattern we start to see.

1:25:12Lewis Ambrose:I'd phrase it like this, I think, and I think I've phrased it like this over this summer with Maduike, not with Yoko Reyes, but to me, Noni Maduike's job, if you look at Arsenal the last couple of seasons and especially how tired we've looked in those sort of Champions League knockout games, Noni Maduike's job to me is that Bakaya Saka is at his best in March. That's his entire job at Arsenal. It's not to score 20 goals for us this season. And you could argue the same for Victor Jokeres, I think. If you look at... Saka's third Achilles, that's... Yeah. The way we've run out of legs three years in a row in the Champions League.

1:25:50Lewis Ambrose:The job for Norni Maduweke this season, and it's Mikhail Teta's job, right, to use him enough and use him at the right moment so that that happens. But PSG, Bayern two years before that, well, PSG two years in a row, we played those Champions League games and their best players were fresh and raring to go and ours weren't and that really you we can talk about those ceiling raisers but really that was the biggest difference between the two teams and I think that's how I would characterize the job of those players that Tim mentioned this season is can you play enough minutes so that our best players the players who are better than you who earn more money than you who start more games than you can play their best football when we really, really need them to in March, April, and May.

1:26:36Yeah, I think that's right. Look, over the last four seasons, this team has averaged 84 points. If you take out the injury apocalypse season, it's 84-91-85. And I think we're better now. I believe that. We're not as better as we hoped. But if you set the floor as 84 points and the ceiling maybe isn't as hot. Maybe it's not a 95-point team because we don't have that attacking output. Maybe the ceiling's 90. I think anywhere in that range is probably a title. The question is, can you win the Champions League? And we don't really have to worry about that until the second half of the season. And, you know, maybe there's still time to address what it would take to get us over that hump.

1:27:17But we were two penalties away from doing it last season. I think we're stronger this season. And as everybody has indicated, if we can just get even that little bit more luck with fitness, he says, cursing it, then we're better just by virtue of having our players available to us i'm gonna ask you though for predictions tim do you have a prediction for for sunday i actually think it might be a draw um i think maybe one one i could see that lewis yeah i think it would be tight i'm gonna say one new i think we massacre them like i genuinely think we are better in all departments and i think we'll massacre them i don't think they look organized i don't think they look ready i do think I mean, Martinez makes a big difference.

1:27:55I concede that. But I don't think they can compete with us in midfield. I think their backline is still vulnerable. I think the attack is good, but it's been overstated because of game state and getting early goals. I think they're very vulnerable on crosses, like really, really vulnerable. It's a reason why I could see Solis playing. I think that, you know, we're going to feast with those deliveries from set pieces. Like I just, I think the Emirates is going to be rocking and I really think we're too good for them. I think we have the better manager, the better players, the better system. And we're just a better club.

1:28:30We're virtuous and they aren't. So for that reason alone, by the way, note to Blueco and to Citigroup. I don't know if you follow this, but the LA Clippers in the NBA just received an insane punishment for some financial shenanigans they were caught doing. I don't know if you follow five first round picks and$30 million. Now the 30 million isn't the big news. Five first round picks. It's sort of a death sentence for squad building. It would be like a five window transfer ban, essentially. It's a death sentence for the development of that team. And I'm just letting you know about it because, you know, if the Premier League ever decides that they want to, I don't know, like run the league properly, that might be something they could consider.

1:29:10But it'll all be decided on Sunday. We'll have Friday Night Clive tomorrow. For now, I think we can stick a pin in this. I can't wait to hear how we did not freak out enough about transfers, but we freaked out a little bit. Hopefully it was enough to what everybody's appetite. Okay, Lewis, great job by you. Thank you. Thank you very much. Tim, fantastic work as ever. My pleasure as always. See everybody for Friday Night Clive tomorrow. If you want to use Champions50 as the code, a couple of quid, you can have instant reactions and Friday Night Clives and all kinds of good stuff. Or all kinds of terrible stuff, but you'll have stuff.

1:29:37And really, isn't that what the transfer market has taught us? Stuff is what matters. And we've got all this stuff. We love you. And we'll talk to you after Arsenal 10. Chelsea No.

1:29:51I love you.