In short
World Cup Daily preview and reaction—Spain’s 2-1 win over Belgium to reach the semis, the upcoming Spain vs France match, plus England vs Norway and concerns about Miami heat.
Guests
The episode is hosted by Elliot Smith with Timsy and May (co-hosts). It also references “The Rest is Football” (Gary Lineker, Alan Shearer, Micah Richards) as the broader show brand, but they are not present in this transcript.
Guest backgrounds (from discussion)
Timsy and May are Arsenal-focused football analysts/fans; they discuss Arsenal players (Mikel Merino, Rice, Saliba, Havertz, Ødegaard) and tactical fit. They also reference Mikel Arteta’s decisions and Arsenal’s season context.
Key claims
- Merino (spelled “Merino/Moreno” in transcript) should be used as a false nine/advanced 10 role for Spain; he’s “inevitable” and clutch.
- Spain’s control is strong but their end product depends on Merino and key attackers; France are favorites due to elite front-line finishing.
- Belgium’s injuries (Onana ACL, Tillemans out) reduced midfield threat.
- England should win vs Norway, but it’s not a “clear progression” game; Norway’s Haaland/Odegaard make it dangerous.
- Miami heat/humidity could affect performance; wet-bulb temperature guidance suggests conditions are near postponement thresholds.
Notable examples
- Merino’s Belgium goal: anticipating a parry and checking his run to score.
- Spain vs Belgium stats: Spain 17 shots, 1.96 xG, 41 opposition-box touches; Belgium 5 shots, 0.34 xG, 11 touches.
- France defensive “Achilles heel” suggested: L. Digne vs Lamine Yamal isolation.
- England unity example: John Stones’ role/celebrations after coming on vs Mexico.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOCelebrating Mikel Merino
1:04 to 1:40
Discussion on Mikel Merino's impact in the World Cup and his skillset.
“It's a day and a podcast for celebrating the best striker in the world.”
Merino's Role and Performance
1:40 to 4:02
Analysis of Mikel Merino's playing style and his importance for Spain and Arsenal.
“Do you also enjoy the best striker in the world, Mikel Marino?”
The Journey with Merino
4:02 to 6:31
Hosts reflect on their evolving perception of Mikel Merino as a player.
“but I'm going to because it needs to be done.”
Merino's Unique Qualities
6:31 to 10:34
Discussion about Merino's unique skills and his adaptability on the pitch.
“And you think, oh, he'll be an enforcer who's technical.”
Injuries and Future Expectations
10:34 to 14:00
Exploration of how injuries affected Merino's career and future outlook.
“So he doesn't have the chance to integrate.”
The Impact of Michel Marino's Injuries
14:00 to 15:48
Discussing how injuries affected Michel Marino's role at Arsenal.
“and I think that is an incredible thing to have in a team.”
Spain's Victory Over Belgium: Analysis
15:48 to 17:48
Analyzing Spain's performance and key moments in their win against Belgium.
“Belgium weren't going to beat Spain in my estimation, but losing Onana to the ACL against the US, I think was a problem because I think he could have been very valuable in the midfield competition against Spain.”
Spain vs France: Tactical Preview
17:48 to 23:34
Previewing the upcoming match between Spain and France, discussing strengths and weaknesses.
“and not found that goal or if it weren't for the Lamins, the Lamins error.”
Spain's Defensive Strengths Against France
23:34 to 24:16
Examining Spain's defensive capabilities and potential vulnerabilities against France.
“Well, they were using Doku to just basically be a second fullback.”
Arsenal Players Shining at the World Cup
28:18 to 30:17
Discussion on how Arsenal players' performances could impact their confidence and future.
“I know it's a bit of a cop-out, but I just thought, I haven't given Arsenal any sort of kudos, really, this World Cup, and it was about time.”
Show all 26 chapters
MVP Choices: Arsenal vs. Mikael Marino
30:17 to 30:46
Contrasting MVP picks and the significance of Arsenal's World Cup presence.
“Welcome to the Arsenal Mission podcast, Timsy.”
Decline of Kevin De Bruyne
30:46 to 33:58
Analyzing the decline of Kevin De Bruyne and its implications for his legacy.
Goalkeepers Under Scrutiny
33:58 to 36:48
Critique of goalkeepers' performances in recent matches, focusing on Courtois and others.
Spain's Goalkeeping Dilemma
36:48 to 41:26
Debating Spain's choice of goalkeepers and the impact on their World Cup campaign.
“And I remember going, obviously this was 2014.”
Looking Ahead: England vs. Norway
41:26 to 42:00
Previewing the upcoming England vs. Norway match and discussing expectations.
England vs Norway: Match Preview
42:00 to 45:45
Discussion on the upcoming match between England and Norway, analyzing team strengths and weaknesses.
Impact of Weather on Gameplay
45:45 to 48:00
Exploration of how high temperatures and humidity might affect player performance in Miami.
“It not only didn't get turned over, they added a game to it.”
Analyzing Tactical Approaches
48:00 to 52:29
Discussion on England's potential strategies to counter Norway's threats, particularly Haaland.
“I mean, and look, if there are people from Miami listening, they might be sitting there saying, Elliot, you don't get it.”
Player Matchups and Expectations
52:29 to 56:03
Detailed analysis of player matchups and the likelihood of England capitalizing on Norway's defensive weaknesses.
“i want to start to wrap this up but like fundamentally if the players can actually run and move and perform.”
Analyzing England's Strengths Against Norway
56:03 to 58:20
Discussion on England's lineup and strengths against Norway's defense.
The Argentine Belief in Their Destiny
58:20 to 1:01:33
Exploration of Argentina's mindset and belief in winning the World Cup.
“or no uh no the the the the messy story has been written uh i don't see when when especially when when God, when both the footballing gods and quite literally God is on your side, there's not much you can do.”
The Importance of Data in Football Analysis
1:01:33 to 1:05:20
Discussion on the role of data in analyzing football performances.
Understanding XG and Football Analysis
1:05:20 to 1:07:48
Explaining XG and its significance in football analysis and discussion.
“Why wouldn't you want data that has more information, right?”
Expectations for Arsenal Players in the World Cup
1:07:48 to 1:10:03
Discussion on the hopes for Arsenal players in the World Cup and personal preferences.
“Except if Neo in the Matrix also never actually learned to punch anybody or couldn't do any of this.”
Reflections on World Cup Joy
1:10:03 to 1:10:28
Discussing the excitement and fun of participating in the World Cup.
Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview
1:10:28 to 1:10:53
Wrapping up today's discussion and looking forward to more World Cup action.
“no thank you thank you so much i'll report back tomorrow okay sounds good my name is elliot we love you and we will talk to you after world cup time for even now Thank you.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Michael Timbs:Hey, World Cup fans. If you want proper analysis, honest opinions, and plenty of laughs along the way, give The Rest is Football a listen. Gary Lineker is joined by Alan Shearer and Micah Richards throughout the tournament as they break down all the big games, the biggest moments, and everything happening on and off the pitch. They'll also be chatting with some brilliant guests along the way. Whether you've watched soccer your whole life or you're just getting into it, they'll help make sense of the drama, the tactics, the joy, and the heartbreak of the World Cup. Listen to The Rest is Football wherever you get your podcasts.
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1:30It's a day and a podcast for celebrating the best striker in the world. A striker lighting up the World Cup. Thank you, Mikel Marino. This is the World Cup Daily. My name's Elliot Smith. Thanks for joining. Hello, Timsy. Hello, May. Hello. Do you also enjoy the best striker in the world, Mikel Marino?
1:47Michael Timbs:I do. We are living in a Merino winter wonderland in the peak of summer. We are living in a Merino world and I am a Merino girl. Yes, exactly. As the US would say, call in the Merinos. Call in the Merinos, exactly. Nope, not really, but I like where you're going with that. I imagine he's going to get a lot of chat on this episode and we've got two games today to talk about. So let's do the format thing and I will give you the first headline from Spain 2, Belgium 1. My headline is, Mikel Moreno deserves the start for their game against France, but shouldn't. Galaxy brain. It's a 4D chess. What are you cooking up, Timsy?
2:38Michael Timbs:Well, he is. He's such a weird player in that he's underrated and sort of such a subtle footballer in the way that when he plays number nine because he's not a number nine but can so easily play it because he's unfazed and it's like the Arsenal problem where should he start probably not but then when you play him you go there's how can we not fit this man in our team because he's useful all the time and Spain are finding this out as well we've seen it in at the Euros we've seen it in the last two games him scoring the decisive goals and he's just I think he's such an accomplished and competent footballer that he can just play as that false nine sort of advanced 10 sort of role you see like his goal against Belgium he did the the striker thing where he saw someone else shoot and checked his run to then, because he knew the sub goalie was going to parry it straight into his path.
3:44Michael Timbs:And then of course it was in his path and he just scores and he's inevitable. And I love him. I love Mikel Moreno. Yeah. And I'm actually midway through watching the documentary series that Arsenal have done about him, his recovery being a champion. And it's great. So I love him. I hate to do this, but I'm going to because it needs to be done. Please. Do you think 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 15 years from now, whatever Mikel Arteta has won with Arsenal and beyond, do you think there will be a part of him that is sitting there going, why didn't I bring him on in Budapest? Like, why didn't I bring on Mikel Marino?
4:22And I guess if I could just for a second, I'll throw this out there. I think Mikel Marino in Budapest could have been quite handy. Yeah. I'm not totally sure he's the player for when you're struggling to get out of your defensive third though. So there is that.
4:39Michael Timbs:It's more, I think, when the time to have brought him on would have been, yeah, maybe early on in the second half when there was still some form of we could catch them on the break and we had a bit more of the ball versus, you know, the last periods where it was just like, we were just defending on the on our box and then just pumping it up and not looking like conceding but equally literally looking like we can't create anything yeah because then he would have been as useless as everyone else going forward um so no i i yeah maybe he should have come on a bit earlier but um yeah or at all yeah or yeah exactly yeah well so so a couple of things about Marino and like of course we're going to make this about Marino it's an Arsenal oriented World Cup podcast but like yeah he is an extraordinary player and I want to say two things here Tim the first thing I want to say is I have to laugh because I think about the meltdown that used to happen on social media and the things that people used to say when he was starting certain games when he started that Liverpool game for example was why is Arteta starting three defensive midfielders right and like yeah yeah remember when that was the debate like it's too many defensive midfielders and I think we all had to go on a journey myself included and I'm going to come to my bad ideas in a moment with who this player is and where he influences games but like I adore Mikel Marino he is genuinely one of my three or four favorite current Arsenal players non non-academy division like the academy boys obviously separate but Rice, Saliba, Marino and Kai like that's kind of the group for me outside of the academy guys and like I had to go on a journey with him.
6:21I didn't rate him when he first arrived, and it's because he's a hard player to profile, and I think this makes him a hard player in general to necessarily understand because you see that you're shining a central midfielder from Spain who was a defensive midfielder for Newcastle. He's big. He's broad. And you think, oh, he'll be an enforcer who's technical. But like Mikel Moreno is not quick with a pass necessarily from deeper midfield. He's not a metronome. His turning radius isn't always nice and tight when he's deeper in midfield. He reminds me of Shaka in a way that when we moved Shaka higher up the pitch, it totally transformed his influence on our team and restricted some of the limitations.
7:01Mikel Marino is as good as anybody Arsenal currently have around the box in terms of instinct, timing, execution, finishing, first touch, you know, ball through. But it took me a while to go there, so I've gone on a journey. I now see there are some players, just players like this, players who you play them and they deliver for you you can't articulate the exact way they fit but they deliver and he does and i love him but it's been a journey to get there because i didn't
7:29Michael Timbs:get it at first you know yeah i i know but i i think that's normal uh and i think with him he is i might be totally wrong but the way i see it is he is that rare case of being more of an antidote than a you know a starter like you don't you don't build a team around him and he doesn't fit into a conventional team because of the way he plays as you say he's not a kind of destructive defensive mid that you can just put at the base you can because he's such a good footballer and he can do that but equally that's maybe not his strength but then he's not a box to box like a declin rice that's not his strength even though he probably can do it and he's not a regular number nine but I think where his strength lies and I think where a lot of teams and something that we've lacked in the past and what a lot of teams do lack now is having him in your arsenal to bring on because he is so different and can fit in so well to a system but offer something new that he is the the antidote to whatever problem or different team that we come up against I think he is he is almost the the joker in the pack that we have that others don't where we can when we need to more play against a team and kind of configure ourselves in against a side because they offer something different rather than us setting up and we know how we're going to play we're going to dominate the ball and it doesn't really matter what they want to do because we have this if it's a team that if we're going away at Manchester City or we're going away to Anfield or there is a first leg Champions League that we just make sure we don't concede or we need to just play on the break whatever it is he is that man that you can then look to that is a bit different that can fit into kind of any sort of role and that's where he offers us he's a really important part of like an alternative plan and I think that's why he was so key in the first half of the season because when things weren't going right and I think which is what we kind of struggled with in the second half but still managed to do because we have such a good squad is adapt to situations we obviously clung on very well but we weren't as good as we were in the first half of the season where we either blew teams away and we were just in control but if not we made it super difficult and just found another way of winning and he was a massive part of that not just for his goals but just for the the the attributes he brought which is you know he can if we play him a number nine he can keep the ball bring others into play he can play in midfield and be that physical presence but also um find you know the right passes and uh i think yeah he he's a he is what the he is the equivalent of like the special ingredient that no one talks about but that what makes it inexorably kfc he is our he's our secret sauce so to speak yeah and that people maybe others won't realize but years to come they go ah it was always marino he was the one that we were missing in our team if you think about the best football arsenal played in their title winning season yeah um right rightly reminded all of us yep he did he just put a post out about that uh i think you could argue the best football was when he was up front around the time of the around the time of the bayern game and there's an interesting cycle with marino if you look at it he gets to Arsenal and immediately injures himself and he's out.
10:56So he doesn't have the chance to integrate. We don't have a chance to see the plan. We're just sort of guessing at what he was going to be. He comes in and candidly, I don't think he impresses in midfield in his initial rollout into the team as we sort of try to figure out how to integrate him. He then gets pressed into striker duty, emergency striker duty, which I think did two things. One, it took a bit of pressure off him with the fans in the sense that fans, we all understood, Well, this is a midfielder trying to play striker. He's doing the best he can. So there was less expectation. He scored some really important goals.
11:28What's interesting is, if you really look back at those league fixtures we played with Marino up front, they were not good performances. But Marino did the best he could. But to show his intelligence and his quality, he grew so much into our team from that point on. And at the start of this past season, was so fantastic. And then when he played up front for a period this past season, And those were good performances. Yes. And they were some of our best performances. So I'll just say this as we kind of wrap on Marino. I can't wait to see what Mikel Arteta thinks his role is because we're all putting Rodgers and Rice and Odegaard and Bruno and Zuby and Miles and Kai and in the midfield and Ethan or Max.
12:14And here's this guy, Mikel Marino, who just wins games for Spain at the highest level and has been in our Bayern Munich destruction, one of our best performances in years, he's not going to sit there and just say, don't pick me, don't worry. And I'm sure Mikel Arteta will want to pick him. So I can't wait to see what that role looks like. But some players just have it. They just have it. And he has it. He just has it, Tim. Whatever it is.
12:40Michael Timbs:Yeah, 100%. I think if memory serves me right, it was the Leicester game, the Leicester City game away, where I think Mikel played him up front. He scored two, I want to say. And that's when everyone was like, wow, you know what? Fair play. He's not a striker, but he's doing a great job because Kai's out, Gabby's out. We're doing okay. And that's just what a really high level player can do who just maximizes his abilities. And I think he plays within his limits, which I think is a very underrated attribute of players. And I think that the person, that was necessary, that Leicester game was necessary for us to maybe believe in the plan and stick with it because we're like, well, let's not lose hope.
13:28Michael Timbs:There's light at the end of the tunnel. If we can get over these next few months until Kai returns, for example, we're okay. I think the one person who wouldn't have been surprised at all by all of that is Mikel Arteta. I think as soon as he saw, he's probably been on his radar for ages, but the Euros was a key example where he's just got that clutch factor in a kind of similar way, a similar, maybe more convincing way to Leo, where he's ruthlessly efficient in the highest pressure environments. and I think that is an incredible thing to have in a team. So we are all Michel Marino fan members or fans, and I think all ball knowers should be a fan of Michel Marino.
14:17Michael Timbs:If you know, you know. Yeah, yeah, and I've come around on that one for sure. I will say, you know, at Arsenal, it really is two freak injuries that have made him less of a part of the group. I mean, he arrives and he gets a weird shoulder injury, I think, in a challenge with Gabriel. And then the foot injury. I mean, these aren't like, oh, he's injury prone. He's always getting a muscle pull or this, that, the other. These are contact injuries that were very freak injuries that kept him out for a long time. I think it's not an exaggeration to say if he stayed fit, we would have won the league by 20 points.
14:52Michael Timbs:I think that's absolutely fair and normal to say. Yeah. And by the way, he is 30. He just turned 30. I was joking, by the way. no i i mean i agree i think if kai or marino or both stay fit and we're not running yokers into the ground like there's so many of those games like we don't lose the wolves game we don't lose you know we don't draw to or sorry draw the wolves game we don't draw the forest game like i think there's just a lot of extra points we pick up um and anyway anyway let's not we won the league who cares um but you know he's he's 30 now i think he's still got a lot of good football to play but it's so interesting the couple of seasons what could have been if we if we really had him fit and firing the whole way it's ironic right Mikel Moreno comes back and winds up being fully fit for Spain and Kai Havertz comes back and winds up being fully fit for Germany and that just and Odegaard just you know comes back and winds up being fully fit for Norway three players that we really could have could have used throughout the season but we still won the league so it's fine okay I look I owe a headline here and I will say my headline is it was always going to be Spain but injuries played a big part.
15:59Belgium weren't going to beat Spain in my estimation, but losing Onana to the ACL against the US, I think was a problem because I think he could have been very valuable in the midfield competition against Spain. Losing Tillemans was a hammer blow. I mean, Tillemans is a player that I think is probably underrated in the Premier League. He is able to win the ball back. He is able to help keep possession, but he is quite a progressive midfielder. He does help get the ball up the pitch, and I think it would have given Belgium more threat in behind, more ability to turn some of their transition moments into better attacks.
16:34I think they really missed him. And then obviously Courtois, who I don't think was having a particularly good game and I think was at fault for nearly goals, still doesn't, I don't think, make the mistake that Lammens makes for the winning goals. And you saw he was sort of crestfallen when he had to go off. So Spain, look, 17 shots, 1.96 XG, 41 touches in the opposition box. Belgium, five shots, 0.34 XG, 11 touches in the opposition box. So it was a very one-sided game from a possession and attack standpoint, which is always the case with Spain. But I am still not, I'm not, I know you like Ojasabal.
17:09I'm not totally convinced by him at all, Ojasabal. I'm not convinced by Baena at all. I think Almo. Oh, I think Baena, no, no, me neither. Yeah. And so, you know, I look at Spain and for all their control, if Laminia Mall doesn't do something special, where's it going to come from? And it's going to come from Mikel Moreno. But this Spain team has a bit of the problem that used to dog Spain, I think, which is very high level technically ability to possess the ball, maybe not the elite talent in the last action. and if it weren't for Marino, they could have played to 120 minutes and not found that goal or if it weren't for the Lamins, the Lamins error.
17:51So I'm curious how you think about that, Timsy, the degree to which a Spain team now will go up against France where they have the ability to control games or certainly a very good team in two-thirds of the pitch, but they kind of miss what France has in abundance, which is the end product, the way to kill teams off.
18:10Michael Timbs:you know i i think it'll be a really interesting matchup and it should be an amazing match because they are two very impressive sides for for different reasons yeah and i think it's obviously well known with france like their their front line it's all about the front line how they blow teams away what i would say uh that with spain and probably the biggest compliment i can pay them is that they haven't played that well and there haven't been that many that many dramas or that many worrying moments uh they conceded their first goal against belgium like to get this far through and not to have conceded not to have really looked like conceding too much um without being spectacularly dominant or you know controlling the game in the same way that you kind of expect from spain like they are just they're such a competent side uh and i think that as i said before i think i said a few days ago a week ago like they are at their best they are a better footballing side than france but then that's not to say they should beat france france should probably beat spain on the balance of things just because they are a very good footballing side as well but their front line is just so outrageously talented um and they they they have the freedom to you know just give it to those front four and let them just conjure magic as much as they look to as this creative outlet to to to to just create something out of nothing they have four of those or maybe even five that they can count on and so i think it will be a really good game because you're gonna i think france will will not dominate the ball as much as spain i think if spain start the game well they're gonna just dominate the ball and therefore dominate the lion's share of kind of the uh i guess the chances or like the kind of like areas in which they play but then france don't need the ball to to hurt you um i would say that in the group stages and stuff france had far more scares than spain have had but then it's almost like this inevitability of it's like the what's it called it's like a terminal velocity or whatever it is where it just gets to a point where their their front line is so good that eventually at some point in the game they will score and then they will keep scoring and they will win the game whereas spain is more a death death by a thousand cuts sort of thing where they don't need to every single time you're like oh we kind of survived that half chance but then if you have a thousand half chances because they just keep recycling the ball and dominate the ball then one will probably go in and then you're not gonna have many chances yourself because they just keep the ball um so So I think it will be a really interesting clash.
21:00Michael Timbs:Wait until, obviously, the game happens and it's 0-0, one of the most boring games we've ever seen. But I think in theory, it's going to be a really fun one because I'd want Spain to play better than they did against Belgium. They didn't have to play well, obviously, because Belgium were relatively underwhelming. They had their chances mostly through Doku. He was obviously the dangerous one. But they didn't have to really get out of third gear second gear because they were just they were just comfortable um yeah i'm not sure i still think it's going to be france of course i just yeah they are they are the worthy favorites just because of what we've seen so far they haven't conceded too many goals and they've just they've looked inevitable going forward but there is like a a kind of like a latent maybe almost a an unseen dominance from spain just because they haven't their system and the structure and the way of playing is so solid that they haven't had to be amazing to get this far and concede one goal this tournament but um yeah i don't know it's funny it's funny i guess the one thing i'd say is i think spain can certainly go go through here right like it's not like they're gonna get blown away by france i wouldn't think i'd realize i said on a previous pod that they would if if spain just one episode ago well where i could see it right is if spain tried to have the a lot france on the counter i mean could be with with mbappe and and i mean they could start barclay for his pace mbappe and barclay and and you know running at you and and uh dembélé and then olise just releasing them like it could be devastating but the flip side here is france have this one teeny tiny Achilles heel in my view and that's Luka Dean yeah Luka Dean at left back is like I don't think he's top top top top and Laminya Maul plays on that side and it's like if they can get Laminya Maul isolated against Luka Dean like that that could be a real problem yeah for France you know so that'll be that'll be an interesting one I that's maybe clarify things in my mind because I think if Lumin doesn't play well I think I find it hard to see Spain beating France just by doing what they've done this tournament and they'll be solid but I think inevitably you give France one too many chances they're going to score goals and it's just then you're going to need to go at them even more which means you're going to be more vulnerable at the back to the counter and france with all their pace they could just suddenly you're two or three behind and then it's game over i think for spain to go through and as you say they definitely can go through and they're probably you know a 40 chance 45 chance but i think it's maybe for their best chance to go through they obviously need one to be a solid and to to play well as a team and lamine to actually play well because he didn't play well against the belgium uh he he He's obviously still, his kind of secondary effect that he has on teams that is so useful for the Spain side is that he just attracts so much attention and so much focus.
24:15Well, they were using Doku to just basically be a second fullback. I mean, they were going two men on him at, it reminded me of like what teams would do against Arsenal, two and three players against Saka. Same thing against Laminya Mall, but you can do that when you don't fear the other players that much.
24:32Michael Timbs:yeah and that obviously would have saved pedro poro a huge headache for the most part because he knows all i need to worry about is when doku does have the ball i just need to be on it i need to stick to my man and hopefully be double up but apart from that like he's going to have more time than he usually would he's not going to be as on his back foot even when they have the ball because doku's doubling up on lamine um but where i think for the france game lamine just has to has to be that person to to really step up and play well um and attract the attention but also take on Dean because don't get it wrong he could tear him to shreds because the difference in quality of player there is is chalk and cheese like he he will be able to cause a lot of problems down that right hand side and then I think Spain have a really good chance of of nicking like a one or two one win one nil or two one um but it's almost like you either it's either going to be a narrow victory for spain or like a a two two or three one win for france just because of the the the balance of the teams really um that in my eyes anyway like again not a ball knower could definitely be wrong but that's the way i see it anyway yeah we and i'm guilty of this sometimes When I see teams that are good in possession go up against teams that I think have really good counter-attacking capacity, my assumption is, oh, well, the team that likes to have possession is playing into the strength of the other team.
26:05It's a very facile and sort of basic way of looking at a game. Spain liked to have the ball, and they can control the ball. But France have blistering pace and a uniquely talented distributor of the ball and only saying that's going to be a problem for Spain. and it could well work out that way. It's maybe a little disrespectful to Spain's immense defensive talent. Like, look, I hate the guy. I can't stand him. But Cucurea has been good and he's going to Real Madrid and I'm so glad he's going to Real Madrid because please, please fuck off out of the Premier League. Like he's a good player. And Pedro Poro, gives me no pleasure to say it, good player.
26:39Pauke Barsi is young. That's good, but... Yeah, yeah. But really good, right? They have talent. They have one of the all-time great sort of breakers up of play ever in Rodri in terms of controlling and breaking up play and knowing how to tactically foul like it would be very disrespectful to them to suggest that just because they have possession they can't defend in transition but France's threat that they pose is unique so we'll see um I I'll ask you well you know what we'll probably come to it we'll come to the next section so let's do some quick stocks we'll we'll do this we'll stipulate to the fact that Marino was a stock rising since we talked about him at length already um I am going to allow you to pick the Nord MVP of the day the stock rising number one Nord MVP of the day remember Nord is your security app you put it on your phone it protects you and has ad it has um threat protection so malware things like that you put it on your phone you put it on your tablet you put it on your computer here's the thing right simplicity you download the app and you have it all you have to do is tell it I want to browse here by the way you can just leave it on because they don't charge you while you're just using it and the speed is really good so you can just have the vpn on at all times which is protecting you as you travel around the internet but then if you're like oh this video won't load boom you browse in a different area the subscriptions you already pay for boom you can watch them when you go places so get nord uh if you use our code you will get four bonus months and a discount on your nord nord plan and 30-day risk-free money-back guarantee so 30-day money-back guarantee huge discount four bonus months do it now nordvpn.com slash arsenal vision that is nordvpn.com slash arsenal vision once again that code is nordvpn.com slash arsenal vision do it now and timsey your mvp of the day stock rising what do you got stock rising i will
28:23Michael Timbs:say my mvp my most most valuable player i'm gonna choose a club and it's gonna be arsenal at the world cup and i know uh it might be a cop-out it's an arsenal podcast sure but we've done really well this world cup and it might be my bias i might be in an echo chamber on x i definitely am but we're we're just we're turning up we have players i think it's more likely now that an arsenal player win will win will win the world cup sorry than one barring either switzerland or argentina but obviously they're playing each other so neither of them can both make it to the the final uh as long as one of those two teams don't win it we've won a world cup one of our players will have won the world cup and i think how i actually think something like that can't be understated by how important that is for uh you know the the one the the morale of a player but also just their standing and their confidence and we saw the in 2014 the the kind of effect or the the the residual effect that we got from per podolsky and mezzet coming back from the world cup having won like that is a huge thing that is a once in a lifetime thing that not many players get to enjoy and you know like we we're in a position where Saliba could rightfully win a world cup or Mikel Marino and David Rea I'll still give him one um would win a world cup or some of the England boys um so that's exciting uh but that obviously comes from Arsenal having played their part in many ways uh getting their respective nations this far in the tournament.
30:09Michael Timbs:I know it's a bit of a cop-out, but I just thought, I haven't given Arsenal any sort of kudos, really, this World Cup, and it was about time. So that is my cop-out MVP of the day. I like it. My MVP of the day is Mikael Marino. Can't believe you didn't pick him. Let's do Stocks Falling. How dare you! I know. Welcome to the Arsenal Mission podcast, Timsy. You're now an official member. uh okay stocks falling what do you got uh stocks falling i'm gonna say it's really bad to say but kevin de bruyne and also i forgot the club sub sub goalkeeper whatever his name is lamons uh yeah lamons right manchester united legend yeah um terrible mistake you don't like to watch it or see it but equally you're going who cares can we be honest Courtois was also guilty for the other goal like he parried he still these keepers could not stop parrying the ball into danger like Lyman's and Courtois were both like don't parry it back into danger challenge level impossible of course and nothing would make me happier than giving him a stock falling and you know because Courtois for what he's done to us over the last few years as well and just when he was at Chelsea like no I don't like the guy but there is a there is uh an aura of of inevitability and uh just this staunch i'm not conceding today because i'm superman for some reason and then we've come up against like that barring a few great goals uh against real madrid you know like two or three of the best goals we've seen at the emirates in one game like he looks like he was just going to have one of those games and he does that though he's too tall guy where that's my that's my and i think he's yeah he's a freak and the fact that him coming off sure he could have done better for the first goal um but he probably doesn't make that same mistake for the second goal and also there is just we've seen from all the great teams like how important the goalie is for the defense and how important the defense is for the goalkeeper and i think when that does change and it's someone of the magnitude of courtois when someone like him does come off that that will have had an effect um so as much as it would have i would have liked to have given it to him that's why i didn't because i feel like you know he wasn't he wasn't awful um kevin de bruyne it was really sad because as much as he's caused us a lot of pain over the years he's an incredible player probably the best 10 we've seen in the premier league um for his sustained just ridiculousness uh but to see him how he is now and i know he had a part to play in their in their goal but he is a shocking like shadow of himself and it and i don't take much pleasure in that because i don't i don't unless they are truly direct rivals and kind of despicable people i don't like to see that with greatness like i think it's quite you see it with jokovic now at wimbledon i've been watching a little bit of wimbledon and like he's incredible still playing at such a high level and de bruyne is still playing at a very high level he's in a quarterfinals of a world cup fine but it's not nice to see the decline because you could you still remember it's still so fresh in my mind of just how good they are and that de Bruyne technically can probably do the same things as he could have done four years ago but the the like incredible athleticism and uh the like how quick he was with his decision making and everything like that is just kind of gone he's done he's physically done yeah and it's and it's really people think these technical footballers don't rely on athleticism they just every footballer needs to have some athleticism and he was about powerful driving through midfield the ability to execute at a high technical level while running at full pelt past defenders getting by them his ball striking was extraordinary he's lost power in his ball striking he's lost power in his running and and And as a result, the timing of everything else he does is no longer sharp.
34:19Exactly.
34:19Michael Timbs:And I think what made him maybe a bit of an anomaly at his peak during the Premier League and what we've seen, and which is why I regard him probably as the best number 10 that we have seen, is because he had such elite level IQ, as Americans would call it, but like just knowledge of the game and understanding of angles and passing and weight of pass and how to dictate play. and obviously technical ability with both right and left foot but then I think it other people do have that but then I think what he had that I think was a very underrated aspect of his game was he was able to do that at any speed and that he could do it when he was kind of jogging and came deep to get a ball and then put an incredible ball behind the defense that kind of curves around everyone perfectly into the path of Leroy Sané for example back in the day but then he was also able to gallop past people and run at full pelt and still be able to do those things which if anyone has played football to kind of any sort of level if you run at 95 of your speed and still want to kick a ball as as well and as hard as you can do when it's like a set piece and be able to like put it where you want it at exactly the right pace like it's near on impossible and we saw him repeatedly do that again and again and I just think like that was such a it's such a rare thing to see so all of that combined kind of made me made me a little bit sad to see that because you're going ah that's not nice like to go out like this anyway is not nice but to see him go out with a bit of a whimper is like ah I miss the old De Bruyne not against us but I do miss the old De Bruyne I mean I think Erling Haaland is one of the best players in the world if he's not the best player in the world but i'll say this i think kevin de bruyne is a much bigger and more important much much as putting more stick stick on it than i mean to kevin de bruyne was a more important part of manchester city's success than holland and yeah i think they win those titles the five he won by the way yeah without holland but not without de bruyne as evidence by the way by the fact that they now had two seasons of essentially no de bruyne two seasons ago and no De Bruyne this season and they failed to win either title and they haven't looked close to a team that could get to 90 points or so in either of those seasons um I owe you a stock falling I'm gonna say goalkeepers the goalkeepers Courtois poor Lamins obviously poor Unai Simon poor and Unai Simon tried to do the Fabianski FA Cup thing have you ever seen the YouTube video it's like FA Fabianski Kush or whatever oh my alright I'm gonna let's see Fabianski what is this FA Kush final F1 NAL fabianski kush final and i really recommend that you watch it with sound when you get a chance fabianski kush or sorry fa kush final fabianski it is one of my favorite funny videos on the web and it it's fabianski against hull and he where he decides to race out and they've put like this terminator fight like oh my god what you get now target acquired i forgot i forgot this oh yeah oh my god it's so good it's so good um oh my god yeah it's super goal i remember the goal is left open what so you know what's so funny i i was obviously i was at this game i was hammered because I was so nervous.
38:10Michael Timbs:And I remember going, obviously this was 2014. I remember going there and I don't remember a thing that happened in the first half. I remember some of the second half. I don't remember a single thing. I remember the tiniest bit of Cazorla's free kick. Apart from that, it is a blur. And I'm so glad it is because what the hell was that first half? Okay, what a video that is. Thank you for putting me on. I didn't realize that you're down with the kids for the kind of like meme videos. This is great. I mean, granted, it's a 12-year-old meme video. So like before memes were even a thing. It ends with an Illuminati reference too, which is, Hull City is Luminati all along.
38:52Hull City is Luminati. It's a very weird video. But my point is, it reminded me of that. and and i i just like i i do think that unay simon is not the best keeper on the spain team and i'll go further and i'll say i'm not sure unay simon is the second best keeper on the spain team either uh but yeah so i'm i'm curious what you what you make of that situation yeah no i i agree
39:20Michael Timbs:he had he had some dodgy moments and i do look i don't pretend to like john garcia and david raya might both be better than Unai Simón. I do think, I mean, David Rai, I don't think many people would argue the same. David Rai is probably, is the best goalkeeper in the Premier League or at least top two or three. I mean, he is the best goalkeeper in the Premier League. And it's hard to understand why he's not in this Spain team because Unai did not look great. And David, especially like, he's so commanding and just, one, he's a cat anyway. so in terms of shot stopping like we've seen it this season the last two three seasons how incredible he is but also I think what has been and I think what Mikel saw as one of the the key things he'd bring over Aaron Ramsdale when he did bring him in was his command of the box is just incredible like he he claims so many more balls from crosses and almost gets rid of any sort of threat before it it can really like manifest for for the other for the opposition because he just like comes out and claims the ball rather than I'm in a good position so that if they do get on the end of this I can react in a good way it's more just like prevention and he'll just come and claim it and I think that is such a it's been that's been so beneficial for us so so beneficial for our for our for our defense and conceding less and I don't know how that wouldn't help this spain side which is again always in a i guess semi-similar way um to the way we play which is all about the like possession and control um and playing at your tempo i just don't know how that wouldn't wouldn't work but spain's always been a bit weird like that though they have their favorites this is very odd it's it's almost a very it's all international managers have that though right like like dechamp just loves rabio rabio is always going to start for him you know like there's there's players like that you know yeah yeah that's true that's true um yeah i feel yeah well for example even oh no no no that's true that's true all right well look it's you know what david rye doesn't need more football this is fine with me this is fine with me because what it also protects us from is david rye somehow being responsible for spain crashing out now he he gets to be there as part of the success but we don't have to worry about him um let's let's do some quick look ahead though because there's two very very big games i will say by the way we did do a friday night clive yesterday clive and i went big on bruno bruno gimmerish move solely who yeah who the left wide option should be this summer um just the transfer market in general so if you want to hear that friday night clive go to patreon sleep but 50 is the code and you get it for a couple quid and you can listen all the great stuff that we do every single day just about and or you could just stay here you know what like do whatever you want who am i i'm not your dad i can't tell you what to do you're just gonna do what you want to do anyway timsey england norway you know what no yes england england norway um i i think england will win this game is my instinct yeah but i do feel like the narrative around this game is trend trending much more towards it's england obviously and i acknowledge they have more talent all over the pitch but they have more talent all over the pitch than mexico and that game was mental i just think holland is good for a goal in every single game at least so england england norway is a game that I expect England to win but I don't think that this is as clear a progression as it's being talked about in some circles well yeah I don't weirdly I think it's not a clear and obvious England win I think England are the favorites but I think everyone is well aware and I think Tuchel even said that in his uh interview that I think he just gave saying like how people and Norway themselves know just how good they are they are a very very good side but have enjoyed playing the underdog and have played that role well um and I think England will be very aware of that I think I think most England fans will also be aware of that I think it's it's a bit stupid it would be stupid for England fans to just think of course we're going to beat Norway no we've we've we've screwed up against far worse teams and this is a team that can really really hurt you um so I'm I'm not convinced that a lot of England fans would think that I think we're all cautiously optimistic in that we should win we have the tools to win but we're not going to take this game lightly at all because we know just how dangerous Norway can be how dangerous Haaland can be and also like how good a good a tournament or maybe how solid a tournament the Odegaard's having as well like they're they're they're set up really well to to to hurt us so um I I of course think we should and will go through but again this isn't the best England side I think it's it's as good a team as we've had in the last few years and everyone seems I think one of the best things I can say about this England side from what it seems from the outside anyway is that people seem to be very willing with whatever role they have there is a real team unity there that we haven't had before in the of course there are egos but I think everyone seems to have bought into the idea of whatever my role is whatever gives us the best chance of doing i i'm happy doing and of course everyone's going to want to play but even you see what john stones did in like the celebrations of work well when he played against mexico came on was obviously great when he did come on and then the way everyone celebrated it's just this is john stones who's like what have been one of one of england's best center backs ever maybe not for england but one of the best center backs england has produced and he is perfectly happy playing this smaller role the Rob Holding role uh and that's that he's he's he's fine doing it um and I think that looks like the case throughout the squad and I think that is maybe what we've got going for us this tournament that we haven't had before however we're not as solid aside in terms of player quality as we have been in previous tournaments so uh it'll be a good match up I think we should win but equally you just don't know how it's gonna with with Kwanzaa out because that decision didn't get turned over.
45:47It not only didn't get turned over, they added a game to it.
45:50Michael Timbs:Yeah, no, how dare you? How dare you? Yeah. You don't have it. Trump isn't your president. You can't do this. Who even is your prime minister? You don't even know. To be fair, you don't have one. You might have one by kickoff. I don't know. So, yeah, I think we don't really know how that right side of the defense is going to be, obviously, with Kwanzaa not being the most solid and that's being generous. And then whoever's going to replace Kwanzaa because I did think he had a good game. That's going to be interesting. And that might be our weakness, yeah. So there's something called the wet bulb globe temperature or wet bulb globe temperature.
46:31That is a thing. Wet bulb globe. Yep. And I'm going to read you, and I apologize in advance, but I'm going to read you a Dale Johnson post. Oh God, who's that? He's the guy who usually explains to you why the refs and var are always right and never made any mistakes but i'm gonna oh god i'm gonna block him yep uh probably been done by most listeners but this is worth hearing because i i think this is relevant to this game okay an advisory has now been issued for miami for high temperatures and humidity which may cause heat related illness the wet globe bulb temperature wgbt will sit around 29 to 32 c fief pro says a wet bulb globe temperature above 28 c should lead to a delay or postponement of matches.
47:12FIFA's emergency care manual has a higher reading of 32C for the wet bulb globe temperature, which the game would be within. There's no suggestion that the game will not take place, but it's obviously right on the edge of what is considered safe. I've been in Miami in the summer. And Miami's wonderful. This is not not Miami. But like, it can get oppressive to the point that you don't even want to be outdoors, let alone walking outdoors, let alone running outdoors, let alone playing elite sport i realize i am not now nor have ever been an elite athlete i mean what people will disagree on on that reasonable people disagree just on looks alone i'm being i'm being humble but uh but the moral of the story is like once again what the absolute fuck are we doing having a really interesting quarterfinal well any quarterfinal be interesting having a quarterfinal of the world cup played during daytime hours in the southern most point in the continental united states yeah like in july i you have all these stadiums that you know we're going to be fine for this in fact the semi-finals will not be weather affected the final will be of course because we got to put it in the worst stadium in america but like facts yeah but why is this game in Miami.
Read the full transcript
48:35I mean, and look, if there are people from Miami listening, they might be sitting there saying, Elliot, you don't get it. We're tropical. So actually it's not usually that hot. Like I could have a lot of things wrong, but to me, Timsey, I'm worried that this game will just fundamentally not be what it could be for anyone because it's going to be played in the kind of heat and humidity that even for the most elite athlete will be stifling to the degree. I mean, I look at Holland at the end of the last game. Holland at the end of the Brazil game, when he scored that second goal, he was walking. He was out.
49:11He could not move. He still scored a goal. But he was aura-maxing, though. He was aura-maxing. He was doing that. Am I just whining? Because people accuse me of this sometimes. This is not a good condition to play football. We don't have to have a game in Miami in the middle of July for a quarterfinal. What do we do? Oh, I'm with you. I'm with you. Or at least not at 5 p.m. kickoff.
49:29Michael Timbs:like nighttime kickoff fine but did this guy say these things or tweet these things because there there is chatter of delaying the game or did he just do it as a as a basically a by the way everyone this could be the worst game you've ever seen i think it's more of a just to put context around the difficulty of the conditions in which the game will be played there has been no suggestion the game should be delayed but like okay i guess the other thing i would say is if you want to play this game in miami play this game at 9 p.m local time well you can't because it's england norway but then so you boxed yourself in a corner you're playing a daytime essentially a daytime game in miami in july like what are we doing what on earth are we doing but then yeah i guess there's a lot goes into it where they've obviously had this down and confirmed for months but even then even in the i'm guessing the brainstorming session i don't know if fifa brainstorm um but but the kickoff time has been picked for the people who were in it right so england and norway and by the way i understand there are english people listening norwegian people listening will say i don't want the game to be at night i'd have to watch it at 5 a.m but would you rather england and norway fans watch it at 5 a.m or watch it at a reasonable hour knowing that your players cannot physically perform at their best because of the conditions and also that you kind of hate to think about injuries and how much more likely it is that they're gonna suffer something just because they're gonna be absolutely shattered or just running on fumes i don't know um but maybe they should have also thought about this that regardless even if you play it at 9 p.m where they're still gonna be like 30 degrees because it's 32 now but like miami's a hot af place like it is hot and humid so uh i've actually never been to miami in peak summer and i think for good reason because i've been there in like april and it's lovely i wouldn't want to be there in july you know um so i don't know i don't know what to expect if this guy this this brainiac has has come up with this thing and has warned us that it's all the ingredients are there to have a generational stinker then um that's going to be fun but again I think at this point, I guess this is what the hydration breaks are for.
51:50Michael Timbs:Not that I want to in any way validate or even decide for having hydration breaks. I guess that, you know, maybe doing 22 minutes of hard running at a time is okay. And that having a little two, three minute break to rehydrate is good. I'm going to disagree with you. Like I, please do i'm i'm a hundred percent in support of hydration breaks i think they're a good smart thing when they are being done because of the conditions it is the cynical naked use of them as an extra ad break in games where there is no need for them i agree with you yeah yeah yeah well all right so look just quickly because we haven't actually talked much about the game and i want to start to wrap this up but like fundamentally if the players can actually run and move and perform.
52:39I think you don't have to be a football knower to realize that Holland against Kansa and Gehi is not the matchup that will help England fans ease their nerves. I think the Norway back line is bad. I think the England back line is not as bad as Norway's, but is probably not up to the Holland challenge. And so I think England will control more of this game and probably have the better chances, but Norway have Haaland. And this could very well be a 3-2. I mean, the Mexico game was nuts and the environment led to some of that. But Mexico caused England problems and they don't have anyone nearly as good as Haaland.
53:23So I think this could weirdly be a higher scoring game than you'd expect.
53:28Michael Timbs:Yeah, I also don't know how this is going to play out in terms of control of the game either because it's almost like Haaland's so... offers so many different threats that i don't think i don't know what basically i don't envy thomas tuchel because i don't know how we should approach this game like i don't know whether as you say we are a better side than them overall so should we look to just sorry should we just look to dominate the ball dominate the game and almost like mark harland out of the game because we just have the majority of the ball the whole time but then like you can't you can't accommodate for just a sudden break and this guy gallops at 50 miles an hour and then you've got cons are chasing after him like that's we got no chance but then do we almost then let them have the ball which they have they've dominated the ball even against like brazil like they they were super comfortable on the ball and played that way and then you think well maybe it's easier if we just sat back and that minimizes Harlan's you know running in behind ability and he can't stretch us but then he does what he did against Big Gabby poor Big Gabby where he just makes a tiny little run uh to lose his man in the box and then just leaps in the air and heads an unbelievable header like he he's just he's such an anomaly that it's going to be really hard to to to basically mark him out the game or make him not a threat um but i i'm guessing if i had to put money on it which i will not because i'm a poor gambler if i was going to put money on it i would say that we just purely physically we're going to have enough to dominate their midfield make it hard for odegaard for example and therefore have more of the ball and majority of the ball but then i also i haven't liked when we've done that and we've had to do that because i think we've struggled to fashion chances that way um and i i almost preferred the way we played against mexico where they kind of came at us and left spaces at the back and i i think that makes it easier for us um but then if we did the same to norway norway have more players to actually hurt us like mexico apart from Raul Jimenez's incredible ridiculous heading ability there wasn't too much there to be worried about but then it's a different kettle of fish when it's Norway doing that to you because Odegaard could pick the right pass bring others into play or just find Haaland and he can just muscle his way through um so yeah I'm not sure how we're going to set up I don't know how what gives us the best chance all I know is obviously we are the better side definitely Kane and bellingham being in the form that they are against that defense which is like totally unspectacular we should deeply mediocre we should be able to fashion chances and and tuck them away and if obviously if they give kane any sort of room in and around the box like he will score um interestingly just because i have it up on my computer right now by the way and this is totally unrelated to what i've just said um hemric faulkner uh 23 year old defender for norway um plays for the club viking in norway which i think is a really nice touch and i think that is a nice touch you know we should we should have more players that hail from like hilariously english teams like like like fish and chips fc yeah fish and chips and just like i don't know chip chip efc chaucer football club yeah yeah yeah baylewell football club yeah or like is that anything kipling athletic you know yeah wordsworth keats fc i don't know i'm just naming like people rather than british things like okay like queuing fc example there you go buses fc is that yeah here comes self-deprecation afc sort of thing yeah uh um i don't know where some people might say colonialism fc but yeah well you can't do that and then mention vikings as well they're almost the kings of it to be to be fair that that is also the case um yeah yeah i i would say friends fc that's what i oh oh uh back yeah um i would say one thing if the conditions are as attritional as we think as punishing as we think uh england's substantial edge in quality on the bench could become a major factor when you can bring on a fresh rogers or fresh as a or a fresh maduike or a fresh you know i know i realize i'm just naming arsenal players but there's that you know there's there's a lot of talent on the bench you can bring on to to influence games let's um let's say one or two sentences about argentina switzerland do you have anything to say about it or no uh no the the the the messy story has been written uh i don't see when when especially when when God, when both the footballing gods and quite literally God is on your side, there's not much you can do.
58:41Michael Timbs:That's the conclusion I've come to because it just seems, it seems written. By God, do you mean Gianni Infantino and FIFA? No, no. Because he thinks of himself that way. Yeah, of course. And there's been a whole lot talked about corruption in this World Cup. But no, I don't mean the bald God. I mean, Dios, as they would say. You know what it is, though? And I think it will never wear off on me, just how much the whole country is behind this idea of, like, we are meant for this. It's really weird. And we kind of saw it with, obviously, their win in the last round against i i literally forget who do they win 3-2 against oh uh egypt egypt sorry yes of course so even then and it was 2-0 and just looking like it was so done and then it was like as soon as that goal went in out of nowhere not to say that anything is written in football but it was so predictable and it was off the back of their ridiculous belief of like no we will do this because we're Argentina.
59:58Michael Timbs:It's really weird. It's an odd thing that I think having their almost prophecy fulfilled last World Cup has now made it a real thing. It's almost like this fabled story that you're like, ah, that didn't ever happen. And then it does happen. And you think, oh, God, so now what's possible? And now it's just like there's this nationwide belief led by this alien boy who is the best thing we've ever seen um just and it's kind of inevitable that they're going to get to the final and then it's again a toss-up uh they could obviously come up against us or norway in the in the in the semi but i mean even then you wouldn't as much as i think england are probably a better side than argentina just it's almost that they have the advantage of they play to to messy so it's like their whole team they they don't need to know how they're going to play because they know their way of playing is play around the alien boy whereas we don't know what to do because we're kind of like well we've got these great players here all over the pitch how do we want to play what system do we want to do like how do how do we want to be on the ball whereas they're like well we'll give it to the eight i'll keep calling him alien boy but we'll give it to alien boy and he'll figure out what we need to do and we just play around him like that's that's a lot easier to do so that they have that and then they have the the nationwide push and belief of like god wants us to win and we're gonna win you know it kind of all combines into this weird machine of of inevitability i don't know so yeah i i will just say that switzerland are a good organized team yes but they had seven shots worth 0.39 xg in 120 minutes against colombia they don't have cutting edge and without manzambi they lack that little spark they lack that ability to get the ball quickly up the pitch and into dangerous areas so that brillanbolo can run onto the end of things that is proper analysis forget all the spiel i just said that's proper i like your bit better because stuff and you've yeah you really captured the the you captured the zeitgeist the honest that guy um so i what i will say is yes i am i really am into the data in football in a big way yeah and i i think it informs a lot of how i approach my analysis of things i have softened on it over the years in the sense that i think i used to be more militant about thinking it defined football and dictated my views on football and i have come to appreciate the extent to which football doesn't quite as neatly fit into statistical categorization and analysis as maybe some other sports that I grew up with I think sport uh stats are so just fundamentally built into American sport and such a a an inherent component of analyzing American sport that if you are raised on American sport and not on football and then come to football later in life as an american you are naturally going to look for the data in football and try to use data understand football because data has been important part of understanding your american sports so i think it helped me initially get my bearings and has has been very important and by the way i still think data in football is incredibly important and you dismiss it at your peril you will miss things but i think i've come to now find the happy medium hopefully some people disagree of understanding where data informs the analysis but doesn't doesn't decide what is correct in football in the way that it can in like a sport like baseball where it literally is just data and nothing else yeah i think the the the middle ground is probably the best place to be in the the the traditional english approach i would think is that it's all based on it's the eye test and it's the feel and it's your understanding of the game watching it and trying to figure out like the the the dynamics of it and the motions and it's rather than trying to distill football into a game of numbers apart from the obvious most important ones which are how many goals did you score how many goals did you concede i think the the general english way of doing it and maybe european way of doing it is like how do you feel like your team played and where do you feel the threats are and like how do you see these things and i think traditionally stats stat guys stat mon stat bods have been shunned uh and maybe rightfully slow back in the back in the old days whereas now i think for me i would always stats are hugely important and i feel like they're helping they're obviously becoming such a bigger part of the game and do paint a clear picture but i think for me i personally like to use them to refine things rather than i'd like my views shaped by what i see and what i feel as a non-ball knower and then refine my views by using statistics when if as and when they come i think a weird misunderstanding about data in football just quickly is like there's this perception that what people who use data think is you don't have to watch the games you can just look at the data and anyone that i i think is incredible at all in their analysis there's a guy billy carpenter does amazing amazing analysis of arsenal an unbelievable long written pieces on sub stack and right great posts on social media i mean he is he is as good as they come at analyzing arsenal i believe great he is a great example of there's a lot of data throughout his writing and his analysis but it is coupled with hours upon hours of watching video and understanding what the video shows and i don't think anybody who uses data the right way in football suggests that you can use the data in the absence of watching the game what i think is also funny is data has been in football forever like i know this sounds dumb the score of the game is data the score of the game is data right like like Like, and for example, people have been talking about the number of shots forever.
1:06:09Oh, they had five shots. They had three shots. Why wouldn't you want data that has more information, right? Because a shot from the halfway line and a shot from the penalty spot, we know they're not the same. Why wouldn't you want data that instead of saying each team had one shot, why wouldn't you want data that says one team had 0.01 XG and one team had 0.7? And by the way, inherently in pubs all over the world, we use XG. And you say, what do you mean? if you've ever said oh great chance oh it's a half chance uh you know that's a hopeful shot if you've ever said that you are using xg you're just using it in language rather than data because
1:06:45Michael Timbs:oh that's a hopeful shot it's caveman xg though but but but it's but it's it's it's funny because it's such a natural thing we our brains when we watch football when someone shoots our brains immediately calculate whether we know it or not whether we thought it was a great chance a medium chance not much of a chance he's lashed at it from 35 yards or oh he was right there at the back post and he didn't make the right contact. Like we're making those analysis in our head. XG just tries to tell you historically in that position, what is the likelihood that you score? And I love that because first of all, it means when, you know, Bakayosaka scores a.04 XG chance, I can see that and go, wow, you know, it's a hell of a finish from a really difficult position.
1:07:26And it just aligns with what you naturally see. Anyway, we've gone too long. My point is simply that I think data is useful, but you still have to watch the game. And even with all the watching that I do, and I watch a lot of football, Timsey, and all the data that I look at, and I consume a lot of data, I have managed quite uniquely to still know nothing about football.
1:07:44Michael Timbs:I think that is really - You know numbers. You actually just watch football and it's just like the Matrix. It's just numbers rolling down. Except if Neo in the Matrix also never actually learned to punch anybody or couldn't do any of this. I can see the Matrix. I just can't use it. Okay, so we'll leave it there. We will obviously be back to you tomorrow with the final quarterfinal summaries. Yeah, quick question before we go. Of all the teams left in the tournament, and if an Arsenal player was to win it, who would you want to win it? England. You'd feel like you'd be happiest if it wasn't Saliba coming back victorious.
1:08:22Michael Timbs:Why wouldn't he be happy for Saliba losing it? But I think Declan, Saka, Ezza, I think Rogers if he comes you know not only that but also like imagine if you're Arsenal and you're two of your biggest players in Rice and Saka and maybe Eza and maybe also Rogers are World Cup winners and maybe important factors in England being World Cup winners what that does for the reception they get nationally what it does for the way they're thought of in the game for maybe how they're refereed they become legends of English football right heroes of english football and i think that can only help versus you know what we saw sack could devastatingly have happened to him with the missed penalty and things like that where you have to overcome that i don't want them to suffer a hardship like first of all if france don't win the world cup i have a hard time believing it'd be through any error of saliva's but i hope it wouldn't be that what i essentially want is the maximum number of arsenal players to come back with credit and the least number of arsenal players to come back with criticism and that's really what I'd be rooting for but I'll root for England because I got a lot of English friends too I want to see you guys happy what about you?
1:09:33Michael Timbs:are you rooting for anyone? we'll see after today I'm just rooting for Erling Haaland I just want him to be happy really after his devastating embarrassment of not winning the league I think I like him, I'm so sorry I just think I like him he's a bit likeable but come on don't worry it'll all come back to you as soon as the Premier League kicks off yeah yeah no of course yeah i can't wait to go and he's playing for real madrid but but yeah but watching his youtube i'm like oh you're actually a good guy this is what i would do if i was supremely talented at football and i was just on a big old like fun road trip but also playing football and making history this is what i would do this is i would be so i would having i'd be having so much fun and he's having so much fun i apologize you're doing a daily world cup podcast you are having so much oh no no i'm living the life of the dream early harland would be watching my vlogs going damn why am i not doing world cup daily exactly uh all right we should definitely definitely leave it there timsey thanks man talk to you tomorrow good luck tonight no thank you thank you so much i'll report back tomorrow okay sounds good my name is elliot we love you and we will talk to you after world cup time for even now
1:10:51Thank you.
From the publisher
On this edition of the World Cup Daily, Michael Timbs and Elliot give their headlines, stock rising and stock falling from Spain’s quarter final win over Belgium, then look ahead to England-Norway and Argentina-Switzerland.
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