Oil Spikes as Trump Fails to Quell Mideast Conflict

0:00Home to The Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, The Briefing with Jen Psaki, and more voices you know and trust. MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world. Learn more at MS.now. Welcome to The Beat. I'm Ari Melber, and we are tracking several stories. We have some politics. We have interesting things by the end of the hour outside of the world of U.S. news. But we begin with these news strikes on Iran. U.S. Central Command, announcing hours ago that there were these Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz. The president is falling back deep into a crisis he created and he recently claimed was solved.

0:37Experts say, and many people have said a version of this, that this was the worst American foreign policy mistake by choice probably since the infamous Iraq War. The footnote to that being that not only does everyone kind of agree on that by now, but Donald Trump ran against the Iraq war and that kind of interventionism only to offer it unilaterally to the public without so much as a consultation with Congress. One of the things he said is this would be over fast and we'd be in a better position. It's not over, and we're currently not in a better position. The president meeting with NATO leaders, a backdrop of the war and the kind of type of longstanding alliances is that he is eschewed to his own peril.

1:21Now, there was, of course, a ceasefire with a road to peace. And one of the tricky things about covering this, we've talked about this report on this quite openly, is if you are rooting for peace and progress, then even a seemingly, shall we say, unpredictable or uncertain, vague peace deal is something that you might, on behalf of peace or America, say, well, I hope it works out. I hope the ceasefire holds. So there's an interesting discourse around this, because even when it looked shaky, a lot of people, including usual Trump critics, said, well, yeah, if we can get a ceasefire and get out of there, good.

1:55But we are a long way from that. Trump now says to reporters today, quote, I think the ceasefire is over. I don't want to deal with them, Iran, anymore. He is, as some might say, leading from behind. He's saying he thinks it's over because maybe it is already in such bad shape that he, as a messaging maven, wants to get ahead of that. But of course, this is bigger than messaging and who says the thing is over first. The violence began with Iran attacking shipping sources, shipping targets again. The U.S. responded with new airstrikes and they've said basically they're canceling part of the peace deal.

2:29That matters because this was one of those multi-step things where both sides are supposed to say we agree on this and we won't do more threats or violence, military action, etc. and we'll try to fill in the rest. Well, we are now off the first step. You know, I always try to keep things clear, simple when possible here. The first step of the deal has fallen apart. Trump is making threats, and we have volleys and exchanges of the use of force, which means we are even further away, you might say, than the day of the deal to the second part, where we would actually get this thing all worked out, reopen the strait, and try to go back at least to where we were before Trump started this unpopular war.

3:07Now, that's just my summary. You might say, okay, that's the news, but what are the other indicators of how this is going tonight? Why is the Iran problem back in the news? Well, I can show you oil prices around the globe spiking, markets jittery, sinking in places. We are back into the very long-term quagmire that Trump said we wouldn't get. People don't want to be here. 60 % of Americans say the war, as we understand it today, was not worth it. I want to bring in our guests for this and a range of topics. Molly Jong-Fast, the New York Times contributing writer and MS analyst, is here. And the former mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio.

3:46He governed from 2014 to 2022. He has dealt with Trump and a lot of these other issues. And he also, we should mention, when you think big picture, was working with President Obama on the important issue of police reform. This is not a problem. simply of Ferguson, Missouri. This is a problem that is national. The president referred to what each of us feels that gives us a sense of urgency. Welcome to both of you. We showed that to remind people you've been in the arena. There's a lot of people who talk. Molly and I talk. Nothing wrong with that. But you've been there. You've been alongside the president.

4:29You've tangled, certainly, in office with the current president. And so when you look at something like this that touches on foreign policy, what was the goal? Did we achieve it? But also, obviously, how Americans are experiencing, people that your former constituents, gas prices up, economic uncertainty, people having to change and cancel, even basic vacation plans, because there's polling that shows people can't budget for a vacation where they might drive nearby and come back because the prices are too high. How do you view this all tonight? I think we have already two extraordinary phenomena happening at the same time.

5:02We've got a military action by the U.S., a war the U.S. created that the American people rejected immediately. When you think about the history, including the Iraq War, including the Vietnam War, unfortunately, in some cases, the people of this country gave the benefit of doubt a little too quickly and believed in their military or their president until they got to a point too often where they said, wait a minute, this is imperialism or this is ill-considered and we shouldn't be doing this. This time, the American people rejected the war literally as it was starting. They did not believe in Trump's rationale.

5:34They did not believe we had any business being in Iran. And of course, Trump did everything to keep the Congress away from any kind of actual decision. That's one part. But the second part is the war then created a whole different economy and a whole different sense of economic insecurity. The gas prices, you know, literally this was the fastest increase in gas prices since the 1970s. So that's such a shock to an American public that was already hurting so much economically. Those two things, a war the people didn't want and a huge impact on the kitchen table reality of making ends meet, that's changed our politics fundamentally.

6:08And so what I'd say is we are living through a moment that is going to live much farther than just 2026 or the midterm elections. This is going to have, I think, a kind TRANSCEND AN EFFECT ON OUR POLITICS. YEAH, I MEAN, I HEAR THAT. THIS IS THE KIND OF REALIZMENT OR FOREIGN POLICY DOCTRINE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PRESIDENT AND NATO AND WHAT HE'S TRIED TO DO THERE TO CHANGE OUR ALLIANCES AND HOW HE'S WAGED THIS FAILING WAR. IT COULD HAVE LONG-TERM EFFECTS. POLITICALLY, AT HOME, IT'S SUPER UNPOPULAR. THE MAYOR MENTIONS THAT. I WANT TO PLAY A LITTLE BIT OF JOE ROGAN, WHO'S PROBABLY THE MOST INFLUENTIAL PERSON ON THE CENTER-RITE, AND FOX.

6:46THE DEAL WAS A JOKE FROM THE VERY BEGINNING. HE SOUNDS FRUSTRATED TO ME. HE SOUNDS TIRED AS WELL. HE MIGHT HAVE F***ED IT UP BY GOING TO IRAN. I MEAN, THIS WAR IS NOT SOMETHING ANYBODY THAT'S CONSERVATIVE WANTED. I DON'T KNOW WHAT EXIT LOOKS LIKE. I DON'T KNOW WHAT WINNING LOOKS LIKE AT THIS POINT. HE NEVER DEFINED WHY, WHAT WINNING WOULD LOOK LIKE. AND LATER ON WE SAW HIM PIVOT to reopening the strait, being winning, which had been opened before. Look, what's so interesting about this moment is you have a president who ran on two things, making things cheaper and ending foreign wars. So what did he do?

7:21He started a foreign, numerous foreign invasions, incursions, whatever you want to call them. Sometimes he calls it a war, sometimes not. And what did it do? It made gas prices go through the roof. And what we're seeing now is Trump was so desperate to end this thing. And he did, you know, he offered them all sorts of monetary chips and, you know, whatever. And ultimately, it didn't work. And so you have Donald Trump cruising into the midterms, gas prices spiking, and he's trying to change the narrative. And I just think that he's really underestimated what a problem this is going to be. Look, Iran is a huge country, 80 million plus people.

8:00It's not Iraq. And there's real religious fervor in that country in a way that there's not. And he thought he could sort of buy them off. And it hasn't worked. Yeah, you get the feeling, Bill, that he's really been outmaneuvered. And you see that in the zigzagging of his claims, things that maybe he thinks work with sycophants or people who need his support inside the United States. This is a different arena. I want to play the back and forth of Trump in talking just about this Iranian leadership team. They were nice to deal with. You know what scum is? They're scum. Strong people. Smart people.

8:37They're sick people. They're led by sick people. They're not radicalized, and they're, you know, looking to help their country. There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. Iran has rational leadership now. I don't want to deal with them anymore. Okay, I've had to deal with President Trump on serious issues, and that's exactly what I experienced. One day or one hour, you get one message, it flips, and the world's watching. There's a growing understanding he's absolutely and totally unreliable to deal with. And so if you're Iran that's had almost a half century, you know, that regime to consolidate their power and to prepare for something like this, and they see, honestly, a joker like that, they see a guy who can't stay on the same vision or message for more than a day, to them it's a signal they can get their way.

9:28And, you know, there's a reason that both Republican and Democratic presidents over these last 30, 40 years decided it was not such a great idea to militarily attack Iran. Because I agree with Mali that that regime, even though I think it's a reprehensible regime, they've got a lot of support on the ground. But more than that, they were preparing for something like this. And they actually took the rather impressive American military and showed that a much smaller force could hold them off in some ways. We've been to that movie before. We saw that in Vietnam and other places. Trump can't accept that he started something he doesn't know how to finish.

10:02And do you think Iran is keenly aware of the timeline? Trump wanted to be able to announce and proclaim this is wrapped up going into the midterms. But the gas prices aren't wrapped up. Exactly. And, again, one of the things I think is strange about Trump is he doesn't think the rest of the world is paying attention to the American political context. The Iranians, you know what? they can turn on MS now, too, and see there's an election coming up, and that so long as they delay, it increases their power in the equation. They're taking full advantage of that. Yeah. I want to also turn, as I mentioned, this is the big story, of course, because you see this falling apart on the world stage, but there's a lot going on in the upcoming midterms, a kind of panic from the Republicans.

10:43Several of Trump's plots on paper ballots and other things have fallen apart, and yet he's still making these new noises today that people want to take seriously. both of you have looked at this issue. We're going to get into that, the midterm plots, when we return in 90 seconds.

11:21weekdays at 12 p.m. Eastern on MS Now.

11:30Donald Trump's plots to try to undercut the actual expected vote, whatever the turnout and results are in the impending midterms, his plots keep losing. It was a recent Supreme Court loss. It was all about these mail-in ballots. Bottom line, Trump's efforts to change the rules failed. The court upheld that, which means even going into the midterms, If there are any plots or shenanigans, you have a standing Supreme Court order to prevent it. Then the top Senate Republican also has told Trump in public that the MAGA Hail Mary plan to try to pass a new voting restriction bill is dead in the Senate.

12:06And he said it in public, Senator Thune did, which by our calculations usually means he'd already tried to tell the president in private and that had failed. So, after those setbacks, that's context for the news tonight, because it's pretty late to try to ram through a new law or major changes to how voting will be done in the midterms. Now, that doesn't mean nothing's happening. President Trump proves to be very vocal on these issues, even when he's losing. Indeed, he's spent a lot of time and energy talking about his 2020 loss, reminding everyone that he lost, that he was the loser of that election.

12:37It's one of the holes in his messaging strategy, which at times has worked. He was re-elected when he came back. but really draws attention to the fact that he lost in 20. He's worried about losing in 26, apparently. He lost in 18. And he makes a lot of noise about the cycles when he loses. So a lot of this sounds more like complaints than a new government plan. I just want to make sure to update you on what's happening. The DOJ, apparently eager to mollify Trump as Blanche prepares for the nomination hearing for attorney general, is now, and don't be too scared, but they're now sending letters.

13:11The DOJ is saying it might try to yank funding from unrelated terror funds if states do not switch to paper ballots in the way they want, what now would be by election calendars at the last minute. They're also writing that they threaten to prosecute officials who may end up allowing any non-citizens to vote. Now, as we do around here, I will tell you the news. That's the headline, but also give you a little context. Most of that is noise. It's designed to sow fear or confusion after those more organized plots that I mentioned failed. And while any threats to abuse prosecutorial powers to go after people related to an election is something serious, we should absolutely look at it.

13:52I'll remind you that Trump has already shown the DOJ will go after opposition figures and critics for, in some cases, literally nothing. which, if you want to think about this as a kind of strategy, for them it kind of perversely reduces the impact or risk that this latest threat going into the midterms is going to rattle people. They've already threatened everyone and in some cases tried to pursue them in mostly losing cases because that's what they do with their enemies list. So that's the news tonight on the midterms. They have been secured even by a Supreme Court stocked with Republicans when it comes to whether any last-minute rule changes are going to happen.

14:29That doesn't mean everything is Gucci, as they say. We should be very vigilant in paying attention, but also not fall into what are now years-old traps, talking about things that, frankly, Donald Trump is currently powerless to do. I'm back with Bill and Molly. Molly, that's how I put it, because people should know what's going on. But the theme is on the big plots to change rules or voting or ballots, they're losing. Yeah, I'm really glad you spoke about it that way, because it's a voter suppression play at this point, right? Trump world wants you to think your vote isn't going to count or that there's going to be something.

15:04And the truth is the states run the elections and the states are ready. And the Supreme Court has said no changing when we count the ballots. And so everything is, you know, we all need to trust the states will administer elections and that there are the right organizations ready to go to court if anyone tries any funny stuff. And that trust in elections is really, really important. And the people, we need to remind each other that elections are safe and secure and free and fair. Whenever you say funny stuff, I think of the Big Lebowski. No funny stuff. No funny stuff. I won't do the accent, but it's a nihilist.

15:42I think it was a German accent. You've been through this, as I mentioned, including with Trump in the first term. What do you think is the right approach? because I'm sure you hear it when you walk down the streets, and I hear it from people. Well, there'll even be free and fair elections, which it's good to care about, but he wants people to be more rattled than the plot's actual efficacy. Yeah, I agree with Molly. Trump is trying to psych people out. He's trying to talk them out of their own power. The people have plenty of power in this equation. Politically speaking, Trump has fallen and he can't get up.

16:16I mean, he's at 30 percent approval. That's not changing. and the reality is the elections are entirely available as a way to make change. Now, what's interesting is this threat, for example, to take away funding. I dealt with that very personally when I first came into office. New York City, with our policies towards immigrants being distasteful to Trump, he said, we will take away your security funding. We went to court, beat him immediately. The president does not have the right to take away federal funding that was already budgeted because he disagrees with election officials on how they run elections.

16:49He will lose that one in court yet again. And what we're also seeing, and I think this is also an important pickup from what Molly said, those state officials, Democrat and Republican, they protect their own turf. They do not want Donald Trump coming into their lives. And we've seen actually a fair number of profiles in Courage, where despite the threats, despite the denigration, local elected officials held the line. So my answer to your point is people should believe they can make a difference in this election and come out. And I think Trump is giving them extra motivation to do so. And again, as someone who's tangled with it, what do you think that officials do when they get these threats?

17:26Because it is strange how quickly it's happened. First term, he talked a lot of smack, but he didn't have a DOJ that would pursue these kind of cases. Now he does. But my point is sort of when you look at it practically is you go, oh, well, you're already just putting on the uniform. This is what it means in this environment. So do you think officials get that or do you think some might be cowed on the Democratic side? I think a lot of people feel personally vulnerable. That is true. But I think it's a world of difference from where we were a year or a year and a half ago. You do. You know, when the Georgia election workers won their case against Giuliani, I think that was one of those good watershed moments where people got to see, wait a minute.

18:05There's lots of ways to fight back. But I also think, again, there's a lot of professionalism out there. When you go to the local level, you don't have the same kind of dynamics you see in Washington, the same kind of paralysis or negativity. A lot of local officials know how to get things done and work together across different lines. But what I think is happening now is because there weren't horrible consequences, since most people just went on with their lives running those elections effectively, the threat means a lot less this time than it did in the past. What do you miss about being mayor, and what do you not miss?

18:36I miss impact, when you can actually do something that reaches people. I miss having an incredible team of inspired people to work with. And what I don't miss is the nonstop stress. And I give Mayor Mom Donnie a lot of credit. He wears it well. I think he's doing an incredible job. You think he's doing a great job? I think he's doing a great job, and I think he's really smart about how not to let some of the negativity get to him. Well, now I've got to ask you, but don't get mad at me. Could never. Could never be mad at me. We just ask questions. Do you think so far he has been a cooler mayor than you?

19:07Oh, 100%. That was the easiest question on the call. I wish I could be as cool as him. No, he's, he, look, to his great credit, and I often say I give his mom a lot of credit for this, because one of the great filmmakers in the world, he has learned how to connect with people emotionally, but positively, humanistically. And I think he's given a lot of New Yorkers hope, including folks who originally were not so keen on him. And that's quite an accomplishment. Do you think his movies and the way he communicates that way, which we haven't seen so much, is helpful there? 100 percent. I think this is someone who grew up understanding the power of visual communication.

19:47And that if we're speaking, he's almost like the anti-Biden in this case with all due respect to Biden. You know, Bidenomics and talking about policy and telling people they should be so happy that a policy worked. Mom Donnie doesn't make that mistake. He talks about people's lives and then pulls out the policy that might help. And it's interesting because Democrats have struggled so much with talking about policy papers and rules and precedent. And Trump has converted liberal Democrats into kind of the institutionalists, which is understandable because people say, wait, what about the courts?

20:17What about the First Amendment, the free? I get it. But sometimes what you lose sight of there is the what some would call the swag, the energy of like, you like this person, you relate to them. And he's brought that, at least in the city. Whether that's a national template is a debate for another day. Mr. Mayor, Ms. Fast, nice to see both of you. Same here. Absolutely. Coming up, Reverend Sharpton will be here live tonight for a special conversation, so stick around for that. I know a lot of our viewers love the Rev when we get him on a weeknight. Meanwhile, the speaker has a nightmare, anger at these town halls.

20:53And why do you continue to protect the pedophiles and Trump's DOJ as they continue to break the law?

21:04The Epstein scandal roaring back. And tonight, we bring our friend Dylan Radigan on. He talked about banksters and Wall Street elites as Jeff Bezos collects billions for his newest venture. We're going to get into is it a bubble and should you care? That's coming up. The most memorable gifts aren't found, they're made. Zazzle is a custom marketplace where you pick any product, a mug, a card, a tote, a phone case, and make it personal. A photo, a name, an inside joke. The kind of gift that actually fits the person. That's what 30 million customers have been coming back to Zazzle for over 20 years to find.

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22:24This more relaxed summer season is no reprieve for Trump's three largest vulnerabilities, the unpopular Iran policy under strain today, as we've been reporting, the high prices, and the Epstein scandal, which has endured with new witnesses on Capitol Hill. And it's a flashpoint for grassroots voters. We have new footage from a Republican congressman's new town hall. What are you going to do for benefits for all people with disabilities? Well, under the one big beautiful bill, we protected, we protected a system that if it had gone unchecked, it would not have been long-term available for the very people that are the most vulnerable.

23:09Why do you continue to protect the pedophiles and Trump's DOJ as they continue to break the law?