Stunning Voter Data Rattling Trump

0:00I like things my way. My coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo Pre-Filled Syringe, which contains F-Gartigamide Alpha and Hyaluronidase QVFC. It's injected under your skin, subcutaneously. It means I can inject in my space, on my time. It's my treatment, my way. Visit VivgardMyWay.com. That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com. and talk to your doctor about Vivgard Hattrulo. Brought to you by Argenics. I'm pretty confident talking into a mic. Hey, I'm doing it right now. But home projects? I second guess everything. Is that noise normal?

0:38Is that water damage? Who do I even call? That's where Thumbtack comes in. Just upload a photo or voice note and it uses AI-powered search to match you with the right top-rated local pro. So instead of guessing, you get clarity and can hire with confidence. For your next home project, Try Thumbtack. Hire the right pro today. Welcome to The Beat. I'm Ari Melber. We're reporting on this string of Democratic wins that are clearly upending politics today. The voters turned out and spoke really with one voice across the country. They spoke out and voted against Trump's unpopular second term. Democrats reaching, quote, the most important goal in politics, the New York Times reports today, showing they can win and win big.

1:22Sometimes it is that simple. Democratic candidates won decisively. Double-digit victories in New Jersey and Virginia, where Dems flipped the governor's mansion, propelling a new young face in New York, showing momentum in pockets of purple and red areas. The kind of places that will decide the midterms if past precedent holds. And those midterms are, as of this week now, just one year away. So will these results shape what comes next? Will they bring a Democratic rejoinder to the MAGA era one year from this week in the midterms? And which results are about these Democratic candidates versus policy debates, which don't depend on the person?

2:03Which results are about what is clearly a growing Trump backlash, despite what you may have heard from some smug elites? And what are the other dynamics that actually occurred last night but could be harder to replicate in the future? Let me tell you this. Right now tonight, over the course of this hour, We will report for you and try to bring you the evidence, the numbers, the hard facts, what actually is happening, to answer each of those questions on this special election postgame show tonight. We are going to build on those breaking election results that we reported out across election night with Michael Steele joining us shortly.

2:40He's standing by to be my first guest tonight in a few moments. We begin right now, though, with a few words from the winners. Seems fitting. And how they touted that the voters rejected, quote, kings, and how they will, quote, turn the volume up. Here in New Jersey, we know that this nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be, ruled by kings. We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship. Let me make this crystal clear. We can de facto end Donald Trump's presidency as we know it. If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, It is the city that gave rise to him.

3:37So Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up. Four words. Turn the volume up. Those victorious candidates speaking with the confidence of the mandates they now have for governing. Voters recoiling from Trump's extreme second term agenda, which has been very clearly lived and seen across this year. Handing Democrats the sweep, which marks the big step toward getting their groove back. That's a New York Times headline. Murdoch's Wall Street Journal reports on the clear dent in Trump's coalition. Because even in blue-leaning states, as I'm about to show you, Dems also gained ground in the areas that Trump had previously excelled in.

4:23Now, politics is full of spit. But this sweep is clear enough that President Trump is not even trying to lie about the loss, as he did in 2020. Instead, the president rushing to basically put something out there, as they say. He likes to post online. He admits the shutdown hurt his Republican Party. While an RNC vet concedes there's no sugarcoating these results, they are really bad for the GOP. A nonpartisan Politico ticking through these Democratic wins. New York's first Democratic Socialist mayor. Virginia's first female governor. America's first Muslim woman elected statewide. The Republican Party, they observed, took one hell of a kicking.

5:09Politico goes on to ask, sarcastically, tired of so much winning? They note the MAGA clapback. But these were, quote, the first major election since Trump returned to the White House. and there's no other way of spinning the voters' response. Democrats outperformed expectations in every significant race across America. Now, many of the headlines and sort of the big stories, as they say, have followed some of the key races in blue areas. But the problem for the Republican Party is that this goes beyond a New York City or one blue state, quote unquote. Democrats found momentum across red states as well.

5:47They won two seats in Mississippi, be a feat that is their best performance there in over a decade. In Georgia, the voters ousted two Republicans from a key local commission. A Democrat hadn't won that office since 2007. Democrats beat back efforts to oust three judges in a state where Trump did win, Pennsylvania. You can call it a swing state or a Trump state, but they prevailed there last night. Wherever people had a chance to vote, the Democrats won. And then you had something that was in, of course, one of the bluest states, California, but their bid to fight fire with water and douse Trump's off-year gerrymandering to rig the midterms also won decisively and was backed by a person who may want to run against Trump, California Governor Newsom.

6:31Now, these results and these calls came in quickly last night. Nicole and I were just chatting in the handoff about how you stay up late, and when we're here in the newsroom, you really don't know what's going to happen. You really do wait on the votes and the votes to be counted. We have had times where it is past 1, 2 a.m. on the East Coast, and it's a murky picture. And our job, everyone's job, is supposed to follow the evidence, not spin and wait. But there wasn't a lot of waiting last night because it came in early and quickly because the races were not even close. The Democrats were winning quickly and decisively.

7:04And here is how some of those victories sunk in across the news coverage in real time. Our beat team collected the key moments here, and you're going to see it actually takes a minute because there were so many. It is election night here at MSNBC. Results are coming in that could prove to be a test of how his first nine months in office have gone. Democrats won three high profile races. Mamdani has done an extraordinary job in mobilizing people at the grassroots level. The winner of the New York City mayoral race will be Zoran Mamdani. Zoran Mamdani completed an improbable and rather astonishing surge.

7:41If somebody with the views of Zora Mamdani could ever win and be mayor of New York City, I don't think I would have believed it. It is a good day for New York that that many people have voted. NBC News can now project that the state of Virginia will have its new governor, its first ever female governor, will be Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Abigail is exactly the right candidate at exactly the right moment. Abigail Spanberger will be elected the governor of Virginia. NBC News projects that the Democratic candidate, Congresswoman Mikey Sherrill, has prevailed. Mikey Sherrill will be elected the next governor of New Jersey.

8:21The overperformance by both of these Democratic candidates in their states, respective states, is a big signal. Very high turnout, higher turnout than they've seen in a governor's race here in years. I don't think you ever need to look very far in our current politics without wondering what the effect of Donald Trump was and is. President Trump downplayed his role in last night's results, blaming it on the shutdown. If people voted on lower prices, they got revenge indictments. And if they voted on jobs, they got doge and a shutdown. Very big night for Democrats. They had a clean sweep in all the major races they were running in.

8:58A sweep. A sweep in all the major races. You don't have to be a politics junkie to know what a sweep means. People have seen it in sports. This was decisive. Now, what the voters said, the results here are not just rattling MAGA. They also really break some of the overreaction and capitulation to Trump among many elites. And so before I bring in Michael, I want to share a word about that context here with you as we cover all this and think about how we got here and why it might seem surprising or even a jolt to people that Republicans just got rejected that Trump's first-year, second-term agenda is under fire.

9:41So here's a little context. Just bear with me, because I think you'll find this somewhat relevant to the weird moment we're in. History you might remember. Donald Trump lost in 2020 by four points nationally. It was a clear rejection by the people. Then some did declare his political career completely over. And that narrative was obviously too sweeping. He did return in 2024 with a comeback and he won. He won less decisively than Biden in 20. Trump won by a point and a half amid a tough economy that hurts incumbents. And then we got this other sweeping narrative that popped up. This overstated claim.

10:23You've probably heard it from Republicans because it serves their interests, but we've also heard it from the media and from the business community and from others who have all the different reasons that they got there. But this very overstated claim that Trump was now suddenly, after this point and a half shift, maybe now he was very popular or he was the new mainstream or the people who went his way last year, a year ago this week, were now part of some wider permanent coalition where he was doing better among different groups, including interesting groups that he's struggled with in the past.

10:53Younger people, Latinos. All of that hype for this point and a half margin a year ago has proven even more overstated, misleading than the other past narratives I mentioned. And sometimes the narratives are wrong against him. Sometimes they're wrong for him. It's why we always try to deal with evidence and numbers on this show and not the sweeping claims. But Trump and his MAGA agenda, we can now say with another election to count. Trump and his MAGA agenda have fared very poorly among the voters in all but one election they've ever ran in the MAGA era. He got fewer votes in 16, blue wave in 18, lost in 20 by four points, I just reminded you.

11:41Underperformed in 22 after his Supreme Court justices broke their vows and reversed women's rights. 24, comeback by a point and a half. And now last night, rejected again, including especially his radical second term iteration, the dark MAGA that we hear about, the hardcore Trump, the masked agents, the revenge indictments, the government shutdown. I don't want to put my hands up too many times, but I'm not being dramatic. I'm listing off the things they've been doing, and I'm reminding everyone they never were very popular. They won one election out of a bunch, more narrowly than the Democrats, and last night the voters have weighed in.

12:19With people living under Trump's second term, there is a, quote, broad dissatisfaction with Trump among all voters who weighed in. That's what the exit shows, the exit polls that sample everybody. It's an electoral result which reinforces something that we've been covering that Rachel pointed out could be significant from the very beginning, and many journalists on the ground, local reporters. I I know it's very popular to attack all of the media all the time these days, but we have all this footage from journalists and citizen reporters and phone videos showing what millions of people are saying, which is no kings in America.

12:54They're not saying we could never have a Republican president or everything Donald Trump ever said and did is wrong. They're very specifically saying the admitted autocratic agenda of the second term, which trolls or muses or plans a coup for a third term, which challenges democracy as we know it, they're saying no kings, no to that. If the huge no kings protests last month were the shot, the New York Times writes, the election was the chaser, with Democrats showing once more that they could turn out to deliver a powerful vote when Mr. Trump is in the White House. So that's just what happened last night.

13:35That's what the public is saying. If you look ahead and combine that with some of the punchback political energy that some Democratic states are showing, including the California punch, fight fire with water, as I mentioned, that also could affect next year. A prominent forecaster shifting over 10 House races in California alone towards Democrats because of the results, because Democrats are fighting back to use power. And so consider the impact on a House that Republicans currently hold by only a thread for the reasons I remind you. They haven't had big blowouts. They had a point and a half margin a year ago.

14:13Right now, House Republicans can only afford to actually lose two seats. You have that margin of five. So if you lose three, you lose the House. We put this up very simply as a balance of power. It's a little different than you normally see it because they can only lose two seats. I just showed you they saw 10 shift in the forecast in California. And if the trends hold in the purple areas I mentioned, and this is from many forecasts, Democrats could be on track to pick up over 10 seats, more than enough to end this MAGA one-party rule in Washington that so many voters clearly oppose. Now, much could change in the next year.

14:51We don't need another new overstated narrative. Many of the narratives have evaporated quickly, although it seems that the pro-MAGA capitulation narratives are sold by many powerful people with big megaphones more aggressively than the other narratives. So, does what happened last night show a path, possibly, to a very different story than the one we've lived through across this year? A story of public protest, a story where the public will matters, and a story where gerrymandering and redistricting and anti-democratic efforts and troops in the streets are rejected peacefully by the American people?

15:33It's a question I'll put to Michael Steele when we're back in 90 seconds.

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17:05After the party, it's the after party. And after the after party, it's the hotel lobby. And who knows that better than Michael Steele, co-host MSNBC's The Weeknight, former RNC chair. We stayed up late. We're back at work. Welcome back. It's always in the hotel lobby. In the lobby. It's always in the lobby. Right, and they can cut off the drinks, but you and I are still there looking at Poland. Yeah. That's it. This is a very nerdy version of a political party, but political parties. I'm a nerd, right? And you ran the party. I ran the party. There we go. I walked through what this could mean with a caution against the sweeping narratives.

17:37Yeah. Now that you've digested, what do you see today? I think your caution is appropriate. Look, I'm not going to take away and no one should take away from the incredible work that was put into the victories from California to New Jersey. What we saw, especially in New Jersey, given some of the narratives that emerged in the last few weeks about the state of the campaign there and how things were going. the lesson I learned very early on as a young county chairman in Prince George's County, Maryland, is it ain't over until the voters vote. I didn't know you were ever young. Well, you know, that's how I go.

18:18Maybe this space doesn't come without some youth to it. But no, look, the reality of it is the work is the thing that matters. The organization, the infrastructure, those things matter. And I think if I am, you know, Ken Martin, the head of the DNC, if I'm looking at the various organizations, the DGA, they put in the work. The critical piece is how did the voters receive the work? And did they respond? And they did. So you don't want to blow it up and make it more than it is. You don't want to fall into the narrative that Republicans are already leveling up. They leveled up last night that somehow the incoming mayor of New York City is the face of the entire Democratic Party across the nation.

19:08They want to do that, that memeing as early as they can. You don't want to fall into those traps, but you at the same time don't want to overstate what the victory was because it was off your election. You had state legislative races in play, not congressional seats. Right. It's different. But let me let me press you on that projection, because the pollsters always ask the question, if the election were held today, how would you vote? Right. To your point, the farther you are away from that election doesn't mean much. You say, what do you want for dinner a year from now? You don't even remember your answer.

19:40And a lot of people don't look at this as closely as some of us. Right. What do you want for dinner tonight or tomorrow? You start to really narrow in. And so So these trend lines, if they hold the Wall Street Journal. Right. No friend of Democrats says they are having a comeback. They had the advantage of rallying voters upset at Trump. Exits show approval at 44 in New Jersey, 42 in Virginia. The era of MAGA triumphalism should be over. And as you know, there are swing states where he's below 40. That's right. But the era of MAGA triumphalism is not necessarily over. You disagree. I disagree simply because this is, as I looked at 2009, it did not project to me the wins that we would get in 2010.

20:27When you were leading Republicans against Obama. When I was leading the Republican Party. So what I saw in 2009 is— And they won't even let you in the RNC building now. They won't do that anymore. My, how times change, but go ahead. But you don't get to deny the wins, right? So if you can clock in 63 house seats in 2026, have at it. But I doubt it. And so here's the thing. What 2009, just like 2025, said to me was, what works, what doesn't work? What type of candidates am I looking at or should be looking at as we look at primaries? what kind of folks I need to go out and still find and mine for the upcoming election.

21:10So what you saw last night, which I think, again, if I'm the DNC chairman, I'm a happy guy. I can sell a big tent narrative because I can talk about a Democrat becoming governor in one of the more conservative states. And mark me, it may be blue, but it is a conservative blue in Virginia to a more progressive leaning city like New York. So, yeah, you're happy. I've got I've got the great state of New Jersey. If you're DNC, you're happy, but you're not done. You're happy, but you're not. Stay with me. I want markers. I'm going to bring in Juanita Tolliver. Oh, yeah. Michael's here in our headquarters.

21:45Juanita coming to us from Washington, host of the archival podcast, MSNBC analyst. Here's what Bannon thinks of last night, including the setback in Virginia. Glenn Youngkin, bro, what do you spend time in Iowa? You just ended your political career last night. You destroyed, you destroyed the Republican Party for a generation. There are seats in the House of Delegates that are unfathomable that could have been lost, that were lost last night. Juanita, he's upset. What do you see out there? I'm not sure why he named Glenn Youngkin. And I'm looking at Donald Trump, especially his impact on Virginia specifically, with knowing that it houses, what, 150 ,000-plus federal employees who are furloughed right now, who probably absolutely use their time off in a way to support a message against him and the impact he's having on their lives and their ability to afford their lives right now.

22:42And so I want to zoom out to that reality, because across the Commonwealth of Virginia, Democrats really saw a swing. I'm talking about in some rural counties as well. I appreciate you also earlier mentioning Mississippi and Georgia, Ari, because we saw deep red counties there. I think it's Morgan County had a 50-point swing towards Democrats one year after Donald Trump won it by 43 points, 45 points. What that shows is people are pissed. They see through the crap that Trump and Republicans are putting out there, and they're angry and mobilizing against them. I think this is absolutely a building opportunity for Democrats over the next 12 months to continue to develop their coalition.

23:24And, Michael, I don't agree with you on a lot, but, yes, this is a time for a range of candidates who can convey a message of affordability, which does transcend age, race and location in a way that it allows for a wide ranging coalition. Now, my message to Democrats in response to that coalition is you better open your arms wide and embrace the newcomers. I'm saying that thinking about how Mamdani was treated after he won the Democratic primary. I'm saying that thinking about how Democrats who challenged incumbents in 2018 were treated internally in the party as well. When there was a blacklist to punish consultants who ran against incumbents, drop that.

24:04Embrace everybody who comes into this party for your own survival. And don't drop it like it's hot. Drop it like it's not. I know that's what Michael was about to say. Let me let me play a little bit of the person you mentioned, because Ormond Donnie has been both an exciting and at times, obviously, polarizing figure. He spoke to us about that because we had him on the beat on Election Eve Monday, which might feel like many more than two days ago in the current politics. And he spoke very adroitly about what the Democrats can do right and what they need to fix. Take a look. Something Democrats are right about.

24:43That we have to take on an authoritarian administration in Washington, D.C. Something Democrats have gotten wrong. We need to bring back working people as the focus of our party. Juanita? 100%. Tapping into the reality that this party is only sustained by people power in a way, at a moment in time when Donald Trump is rejecting the people, when he's deprioritizing the needs of the general public, whether it's refusing to pay out SNAP benefits or only paying a portion of it while he doubles and expands funding of ICE, right? Like it shows who cares about the public and putting them front and center over Donald Trump, over loyalty to old heads in the party is critical because they're the only way that they're going to have a survival in future, especially if they're looking to expand and take over the House in 26.

25:34So let me take that debate back to Michael Steele. And she referred to old heads in general. I already made one age reference, so we're good. I love it. We're good. But let me show you. Look, all I need now is Simone Sanders Townsend at the table. Remind everybody just how old I am. Well, but age can be addressed respectfully and not just like that. And we're having fun here. But, you know, Lil Uzi Vert said, wait, and then I'm going to show you the data, and then I'm going to give you your turn. Okay. Lil Uzi Vert. Shout out, Neon Guts. He said, anyone down on me, he lying, my money older than Joe Biden.

26:10Right. And the Democratic Party has a risk when everyone in their 20s looks up as they did a year and a half ago and say, I guess this is the only the old party. Let me take it to the data. And then you get to you get to close it out. Yeah. New York City voters under 30 who aren't very active in other years come out 75 percent for for Mom Donnie, 75 plus 78. then you go under 44 years old he's still up and that's a good coalition there now voters over 45 who in many races including midterms sometimes control the outcome in new york i want to point this out a win is a win but cuomo has the majority there if this were a different year and that's a credit to mom donnie that he turned out the youth right but as you've caution us, overlearning the lesson to say this was a perfect campaign that could work nationally.