Trump Approval Hits New Low

0:00I like things my way. My coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo Pre-Filled Syringe, which contains F-Gartigamide Alpha and Hyaluronidase QVFC. It's injected under your skin, subcutaneously. It means I can inject in my space, on my time. It's my treatment, my way. Visit VivgardMyWay.com. That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com. and talk to your doctor about Vivgard Hattrulo. Brought to you by Argenics. A rug shouldn't just fit your room. It should make your home feel finished. Ernesta creates designer quality rugs custom fit to the exact size of your space.

0:38So every room feels beautifully pulled together. Explore Ernesta's range of options, all ready to be custom cut, finished, and delivered to your door in as little as two weeks. Start with five samples for just$10 and get$50 toward your rug when you order. Visit Ernesta.com today. That's E-R-N-E-S-T-A dot com. Welcome to The Beat, everyone. I'm Ari Melber, and we begin with Trump's cratering approval as we are in the midterm homestretch. And timing can be everything in life or politics. Well, the timing isn't working for the Republicans, because while Trump has been in a steady decline over a bunch of issues, his worst approval numbers are hitting right now in the homestretch, 19 points underwater.

1:19And some of his least popular policies are getting the most airtime, including the Iran war. asked about whether there could be more strikes on Iran, in other words, a potential escalation of this unpopular war. Trump just telling Axios, I'm always thinking about it, not exactly dialing it down. Then you have the economic pain. Gas prices still going up. Diesel prices clobbering. Trump's bag of faithful, as the Washington Post put it in a new report. A Republican telling the Washington Sun, no one feels good about November now. and the widening of the coalition or the revolt against President Trump in his second term is visible in more than just numbers.

2:00That's data. We all track that. I can tell you the candidates and their campaigns track it. But when Trump leaves the bubble of the White House, he also is running into a very different world than, say, the November of the presidential race. Take Saturday, where he was booed by a crowd at this Texas-Tennessee college football game. The very next day, he faced a heckler at an Illinois golf event.

2:35Now, alone, any random anecdote or person yelling or activist doesn't tell you everything. But together with the numbers I just showed you, Donald Trump, who did have a comeback and who at times has benefited from the same kind of Nixonian, calls of a silent majority or some group out there that's more down with him than maybe the coasts or the so-called elites realize. Well, now we're in the opposite lane. It is completely socially acceptable, normal, at a Southern game to boo this unpopular war president. Negativity may have gotten to Trump. He was caught on a hot mic discussing a desire to basically jet, leave the event, and get home.

3:22Now he can go home. Is Washington home? Is Florida home? Is New York his former home home? The truth is that wherever he goes, even in red areas, nothing's going to feel like home to Donald Trump, who clearly needs adulation. And if he can't get it for real, he'll try to fake it. And he's demanded Republicans continue to pretend that everything's going fine when it's not, which is the first problem. if you have a campaign like this in a hole, stop digging. Joining me now, legendary Democratic strategist James Carville, who knows his way around these elections and the economy. Welcome back, James.

4:01Always glad to be back, Ari. Getting ready for the big election day. Yeah, well, I mentioned timing matters a lot, right? You don't want your best lead or your opponent's worst problems to come a year out when people are going to forget them. What do you think of this timing for the midterms and what has been a revolt? against Trump? You know, honestly, I think things are getting set pretty good. And so when we look to six weeks from tomorrow, you had a rain event in New York a couple of days ago, all right? It can mist, it can have a shower, or you can have a deluge. You had a deluge. That's what we're going to have in November.

4:40It's going to be a deluge. And I think that most of the Republicans are kind of aware of that. And everybody is just strapping in. But, you know, the Fox viewers are not aware of that. I watch it all the time. I read the Chiron, and they're saying, race for Congress remains close. Okay, they're going to be a big surprise in a lot of houses come the night of November 3rd, I guess it is. Yeah, there's a gap there. The Republicans who are in cycle, who are running, know about it. The conservative or MAGA-aligned podcasters are way more vocal about it than, say, Fox or the traditional, you know, the traditional narrators, if you will.

5:23I want to play a couple Republicans that are, these are name-brand Republicans. This isn't like we had to go and find some rando and some down-ballot race. Here's top recognizable Senate Republicans. Take a listen. People are getting really good at barely getting by, and we've got to address it, and we haven't done anything to address it. The American people are pretty forgiving to a point, but they want results. I don't know how many Alaskans are thinking about the Kennedy Center and whether it should be demolished. James? Well, those three senators all have something in common. They actually have an IQ below room temperature.

6:06I mean, Senator Kennedy is one of the brightest, most educated people in the entire, and he may be a Louisiana, may be a Republican, may be a conservative. He's not a fool. He knows right where this is and same thing goes for other people. I mean, the smarter ones, the ones that live in the real world know what they're faced with and I mean, Mike Johnson has gone around the country like a chicken with his head chopped off. He don't know where he is but I'll tell you where he's not going to be. He's not going to be in the Speaker's chair come January of 2027. That I can assure you. Yeah. Yeah. You've clashed and campaigned against Karl Rove over the years.

6:42It seems like he might have come more your way than you going towards him. That's just a ballpark in it. But here's how I want to play. Well, for your reaction, Bush veteran Karl Rove, and then your reaction on the other side. Let's take a look. 2006, you think George W. Bush was popular? No. And we understood that. So we told people, we'll come in and do a private fundraiser for you and arm you up, but you do what you need to do in order to get elected. And that's not the way this guy operates. A president in a year like this ought to recede as a political figure. It's hard for him to do that.

7:22He likes doing it the other way around. James. Well, first of all, Colin Caron, a very good friend of Mary and I, so I have some personal affection for Colin. and I have a lot of respect for him, is a political operative. He's in a position that he can be utterly truthful because he's not dependent on anybody and he's telling the truth. This is what he's faced with. This is what he's looking down. Carl's worked all of his life to build a dominant Republican party in the state of Texas and he understands that it's all at risk now. I mean, easily, probably will lose the Senate race. And when I come to grips with it, Jeannie Hennon-Hosel may win for governor.

8:04All kinds of stuff. All right, when I leave here tonight, I'm doing a fundraiser for Scott Colm, the Democratic candidate in Mississippi, and I'm doing something for Jamie Davis, the Democratic candidate in Louisiana. They both might win. Somebody has got, and the same thing is true in Arkansas. This map is getting bigger by the day, and everybody's mumbling around talking about Maine and North Carolina and Georgia, and meanwhile, the map is moving to Mississippi, be Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, all kinds of places that we never anticipated. And I hope that they play into a big map. One thing I did here that's encouraging, I'll tell you, your view is this.

8:42Sunday, I think, was the biggest fundraising day in the history of the Democratic Party. I think they had a very successful, it wasn't small donors, but we have a terrible financial disadvantage going into right now, but I think we're catching up pretty good. I really do, and I'm very encouraged by that. Yeah. So you mentioned those fundamentals and the economy, even Republicans talking about that and the war, food safety and data centers and tech, all of these real, relatable, everyday issues. And they all run against the Republican incumbents. So then you say, OK, well, what are they talking about?

9:18Well, some of them are just kind of throwing out whatever they can, whatever they think might stick to the wall or a version of what they think worked on distraction in the past. And so I want to play for your reaction, Senator Tuberville, who was talking about what is an alleged or sort of his view of a, again, this is the news. I'm just going to say what you're going to see it. What he says is a sexual kink out there. And he says he's concerned about it. And then he ties it to airlines. I'll let him take it from here. Many airline pilots Flight attendants And air traffic controllers Are part of the furry community Lord help us When you walk onto a commercial flight It's possible that the pilot flying your plane Could have a deranged fetish of dressing up Like an animal All you gotta do is look at their convention They had a pilot's section at their convention this past week in Minnesota.

10:26James, what's going on here? Is this campaign distraction, desperation? Your view. All right, so Senator Soberville, is he dumber than concrete or is he dumber than a box of rocks? I would take his name to equate his IQ. I think a T-U-B-E-R is a potato. that's that's an apt name for him potato he's that dumb i mean he's i gotta tell you as a southerner and as a football fan as an sec fan as a proud guy every time i see that guy just want to call under the table man shut up you're embarrassing the whole region of the country not just good people out of valley anybody that has anything to do with it talking about pilots and And far he's, I have no idea.

11:13Somebody, maybe he's got a wife or maybe he's got kids, can kind of pull this guy aside and help him out a little bit. But that boy ain't right at all, not at all. Well, I guess they think this is like some of the attacks they did in 24, trying to turn it to culture or turn it to maybe, he didn't talk a lot about Democrats in that clip, but it's designed to sort of foment the idea of if you change teams, you change the government, you're going to get some other agenda, I guess, is the pitch. I don't know, because what he says is no one can make it out. It'd take a thousand, you know, AI data scientists a thousand years to make anything out of him.

11:52They'd have to have five data centers to run it through to figure out what that guy is saying, because no model, no human being can figure that out. None. Yeah, well, that's an honest answer. James, I'm going to fit in one of our shortest breaks, 90 seconds, and we're back with more karma. All right. All right.

12:38this is AI. I want to warn people, that's the world we're in. This is not real. But this is a video that's AI generated that sort of imagines him partying, as you see with the champagne, Gilded Era, shot of Trump, the ladies. It's become quite an unforced error for the White House. What does this tell you? Well, I'll tell you what's not AI generated. It's our Indian FBI director with the hockey team and everything that he does. So, yeah, that's fun. We can all have fun. But we don't need AI. These people are such clowns. You can't beat them with AI. The reality of it is much more than what they made up about.

13:18Just look at what's going on. And look at Bobby Kennedy or look at Pete Hedgsmith. I mean, the reality of what we face is it doesn't need to be exaggerated, I don't think. I think it's just horrific enough on its own. Hmm. This was Thune, of course, a leader of this Republican Party, also talking about the economy. Take a look. The races are, it's more about, it's, you know, it is affordability issues. It's the price of diesel in places like Iowa and Kansas and Nebraska and the Midwest, Minnesota. And so I think that's the issue. And what's happening, Iran is sort of trumped everything else that's going on.

14:01So is he almost spinning for a loss, number one? And number two, is this Trump's economy? Well, the man is burdened with something that Senator Tuberville is not. He actually has a brain and an IQ. I just want to say one thing, diesel. No one buys it, but everybody talks about it. When's the last time you know anybody that bought a gallon of diesel? Frankly, very few people do, but it so affects everything, transportation to agriculture to you name it, and it's just become part of modern nomenclature. And I think at some level, although people don't have any idea what diesel looks like or smells like or anything about it, they know this affects their lives in a profound way, and they are 100 % correct, and someone knows that.

14:51And so this is your thing. This is an economy election. Well, of course it is. And if you just something as simple as diesel, when it goes up or petroleum, it's in fertilized, it's in transportation, it's everything that you do. And money that goes to that can't go to something else. and people understand what they're paying right now for anything over what they were paying in February is 100 % attributable to the stupid war that we're actually losing. We're losing a war, and we're paying billions and billions of dollars for a lost war. At least if you're going to pay money, you should win the war.

15:31That's the least you can do. We're not doing that. That would be a good thing. Yeah, don't start it. If you start it, win it. If you say you're going to end it, end it, which they haven't been able to do either. James, we covered a lot of ground. And when you don't know what someone's talking about, you know, you're that rare guest who says, I don't know what he's talking about. So we get the truth from you. Neither is anybody else, but that's okay. I think we're going to have a different life after November 30th. Thank you. Yes, sir. Have a great week, James. Thanks again. Our thanks to James starting the week with us.

16:06I'll tell folks what's coming up. Heat on these tech leaders as we hear more and more doomsday talk from some of the tech people who are still raising money barreling ahead. And that includes now, you know, it's a mainstream item when it's on SNL. They're joking and roasting how this is a tech problem that has been noticed in the wider culture. Sam Altman, myself, all the major AI players, we have talked about this extensively and we are all on the same page here. We do not condone what we are doing.

16:41Who's going to stop us? We also have the attorney general in a First Amendment pickle and a top Republican senator condemning Donald Trump taking your tax dollars to fund these campaign ads. I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves.

17:11I like things my way, my coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo Pre-Filled Syringe, which contains F-Gartigamide Alpha and Hyaluronidase QVFC. It's injected under your skin subcutaneously. It means I can inject in my space on my time. It's my treatment, my way. Visit VivGuardMyWay.com. That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com. And talk to your doctor about VivGuard Hytrulo. Brought to you by Argenics. A rug shouldn't just fit your room. It should make your home feel finished. Ernesta creates designer-quality rugs custom-fit to the exact size of your space, so every room feels beautifully pulled together.

17:53Explore Ernesta's range of options, all ready to be custom-cut, finished, and delivered to your door in as little as two weeks. Start with five samples for just$10 and get$50 toward your rug when you order. Visit Ernesta.com today. That's E-R-N-E-S-T-A dot com. Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start? Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin? Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is? With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app.

18:29Download today.

18:37Donald Trump lost the first round in that press ban. Today, three news outlets impacted by the initial ban face a deadline regarding their injunction request, whether they seek more than the current temporary block of what is a likely illegal ban. Now, the issue goes on. A judge has ruled that those outlets, CNN, Politico, and the one you're watching, MSNOW, have to be let into the White House. And so this is one of those areas where the rule of law is holding because after some initial confusion, the White House did admit the reporters back the day that that ruling came down. But the Trump administration is trying to brainstorm other ways to target at least some of the outlets, including now blocking CNN from boarding Air Force One over the weekend.

19:23Now, here's something you have to keep in mind. If it sounds like the White House is continuing to brainstorm ways to target the press while following the letter of the court ruling, that is apparently what they're doing. And while that may sound concerning to people who respect the free press and free speech in this country, the headline is they did follow the actual court ruling to let the folks back in. And now we get another battle over whether this other mechanism going after the plane access is legal or not. The attorney general went on TV claiming that this is all still about national security.

19:56We showed you, again, the court ruling, not our view, just reporting on what the judge said, that there was no valid national security evidence even submitted by the White House. Then the attorney general also made some admissions. Take a look. The president has every right to decide who gets to fly on his plane, and it is national security. The president has said is that he is sick and tired of certain media outlets just refusing to report accurate news. And so, look, it is a privilege. It is a privilege to be in the White House for anybody. He actually slammed a lot in there, and I'll give you a brief legal fact check.

20:37One, false. It is not a privilege to report from the general areas of the White House. the recent court ruling reasserted that. The attorney general, of course, a lawyer knows better. Two, under current case law, a president may be able to restrict reporters from these more select areas, like the actual Oval Office, which is a small room, and Air Force One, which cannot hold every reporter who might even want to go on there. And so, fact check, true under case law, that may be something they can restrict. Now the judge rejected the White House's defenses on due process and sent those reporters back under court order to report the White House.

21:20Think about that. We're in a country where it took a court order to force the government to let these normal reporters, these people with press badges who were reporting there the day before, back in. Meanwhile, Trump is in other legal hot water for taking taxpayer funds to run his own ads. Even MAGA allies alarmed. This is the final battle. We will grow off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all. You are looking at what is likely illegal. We showed you just a brief part of it, along with the confession that this was paid for by the U.S.

22:04government, your tax dollars for a midterm-timed piece of campaign propaganda. This is one of those things that is basically indefensible. Current precedent suggests probably unlawful. That will be tested. And top MAGA-allied Republicans, they're not even defending this. I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves. Pretty straightforward. And this is one of those times that you have, especially in the second term, where if you follow it out, you go, well, can this even be legal? And if not, how are they doing it?

22:52And how are they getting away with it? Now, I just showed you the rule of law holding on the press ban. In a matter of days, the president of the United States, the leader of the free world, the guy with his finger on the nuclear button, had to back down and let in those reporters because the rule of law held. But with all these different things coming out of this White House, it takes action. Ethics experts say that that ad, of course, could violate federal laws. Former Obama ethics official Norm Eisen says the president and his administration have gone from breaking the law to trampling it. And he is also part of a group that has taken many actions over these years to hold this president accountable.

23:28Bull Norm is here next.

23:40We're more determined than ever to cover this administration, to cover our government. And I'm really grateful to have that right. Yeah. Freedom of the press to be able to be able to do my job. You are a hero to a lot of people here right now because, I mean, we talk about freedom of the press like it is a sacrament, like it is something esoteric, like it is something that is a spiritually important component of who we are as a country. And it is all of those things. Yeah. But it is also something that goes away if it is not practiced. Our colleagues Rachel and Laura speaking this weekend in Texas about these First Amendment battles.

24:29I'm joined now by Norm Eisen, an ambassador, author. He was a top ethics advisor to President Obama. He writes The Contrariant on Substack and leads Democracy Defenders Fund, which, as I mentioned in setting you up earlier, Norm, has brought some very key cases, filed briefs, really taken this fight over many issues from ethics to immigration in this second term. Welcome back. Thanks for having me back.

25:19of that court order. Walk us through where we are and also tell us about what your group's been doing. Well, Ari, we have been fighting at Democracy Defenders Fund an action for the First Amendment, winning the reinstatement of Karen Atiyah, filing briefs in many of these cases where there's attacks on the White House press corps, litigating over government outlets like the Voice of America, where they're supposed to have statutory independence that the administration has attacked. And the reason we do that goes to what's going on in the White House, solidarity. This was another court win for the outlets that were banned.

26:08But they're finding a way to cheat on CNN by excluding them partially. I think it's incumbent on all of the journalists to stand together, lest we hang separately. I say that as the publisher of The Contrarian. Don't let the White House split off CNN or any other outlet because first they'll come for them. Then they'll come for you with or without a quarter. Let me jump in. Let me jump in on that. Then I'll let you finish the the entities, the news outlets targeted, as I mentioned, did file together. So they're normally during the day, you know, competitors, but they filed together on this First Amendment issue in the pool, including Fox, initially banded together.