Trump faces polling crash amid war, bad economy, midterms

0:00You're listening to this podcast, so you've got a curious mind. Here's a helpful fact. Drivers who switch and save with Progressive save over$900 on average. Visit Progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. National average 12-month savings of$946 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2024 and May 2025. Potential savings will vary. Hey, before your Q3 call, I've got the campaign brief ready, built from last quarter's data and the competitive landscape. Great. Did you include the differentiation angle the CMO asked for?

0:36Already in there. Three angles no competitors using right now. Just need your approval. Approved. Thanks. Oh, agents, where would we be without you? Hmm, somewhere with a lot more tabs open. Create your first Monday agent in minutes at monday.com. Welcome to The Beat. I am Von Hilliard in for Ari Melber. We have a big show tonight. We begin with a storm of problems raining on Donald Trump in the GOP with less than three months before the midterms. Tonight, Trump facing a massive polling crash, rising gas prices, an unpopular war of choice, and a MAGA revolt by some of his closest MAGA allies and voters.

1:18Look at this. Trump's approval rating is now at the lowest point of his second term, According to newly released average from prominent pollster Nate Silver, his average approval has sunk to 38 percent, the lowest number any president has faced at this point in his second term since Harry Truman. Some polls have him as low as 32 percent. His average disapproval sits at 58 percent, also the worst of his second term. And this probably won't help at all. Trump telling supporters at a rally last night, quote, we may have to send oil prices higher amid the Iran war, implicitly taking ownership of high gas prices.

1:56And it's not just Trump, though. His own Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, making headlines by downplaying income inequality. Besant rejecting the term K-shaped economy, shorthand for the income gap. Watch what he said compared to what multiple Trump voters told MS Now's Alex Tabard. I GOT SICK OF HEARING ABOUT THIS K-SHAPED ECONOMY. YOU CAN'T SAVE NOW. EVERY DOLLAR YOU HAVE HAS TO GO TO GAS, GROCERIES, BILLS, RENT. I CAN SAY HERE DEFINITIVELY THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY IS OVER. YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING WITH GAS PRICES AND YOU JUST CAN'T, YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO BREATHE AT THIS POINT. WE ARE SEEING MORE OF A C ECONOMY WHERE THE LOWER END OF WAGE EARNERS ARE CALLING IT BACK JUST LIKE THEY DID IN PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FIRST TERM.

2:48LOW CLASS MIGHT AS WELL CRAWL IN A HOLE BECAUSE THEY CAN'T AFFORD ANYTHING. IT'S NOT JUST A FEW TRUMP VOTERS, THOUGH. TRUMP IS ALSO DEALING WITH A NEW REVOLT FROM EXILED MAGA MEMBERS LED BY TUCKER CARLSON, MARJORI TAYLOR GREEN AND OTHERS. THEY SEEM TO BE CONSIDERING THE RELEASED THE LAUNCH OF A MAGA ALTERNATIVE, ARGUING TRUMP HAS BETRAYED AMERICA. CARLSON ALSO RELEASING A 10 - POINT MANIFESTO FOR HOW TO REBUILD THE COUNTRY AFTER THE PRESIDENT IS DONE WRECKING IT, AS THE DAILY BEAST PUTS IT. CARLSON THEN BLASTING TRUMP ON CAMERA. YOU HAVE THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, WHATEVER THEY TELL YOU, OPENLY THREATENING THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN A

3:37because that's crazy. That's beyond reckless. That's, well, it's literally suicidal and homicidal. Now, Trump is also reportedly taking his anger directly to members of his own cabinet. The Washington Post reporting on a clash in which Trump pressed his Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, over America's dwindling munitions. Trump reportedly demanding answers on the, quote, quote, extreme munition shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran. The White House denies the exchange occurred, but it's all context for the GOP's growing midterm fears. Politico reporting on a closed-door Senate GOP meeting where the big question was, when is Trump going to focus on the midterms and take the advice of his own team?

4:25One Republican senator asking, quote, when Trump would start attacking Democrats instead of attacking attacking Republicans. Things are not much better over in the House. Axios reporting on Democrats' improving map, quote, four scandal-plagued House Republicans whose seats should be gimmies for the GOP have instead turned their races into unexpected battlegrounds. And that's where we start tonight, Trouble, surrounding Trump and the GOP just three months from the midterms. Joining me now is Molly IT IS A FACT POLITICAL CONDIBUTOR WRITER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES, HOST OF FAST POLITICS PODCAST AND MS NOW POLITICAL ANALYST RICK WILSON COFOUNDER OF THE LINCOLN PROJECT AND POLITICAL STRATEGIST WHO HAS WORKED ON MULTIPLE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS.

5:10MOLLY, RICK, THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING HERE THIS EVENING. MOLLY, LET'S START WITH YOU HERE. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER, THE NUMBERS DON'T LOOK GOOD FOR REPUBLICANS. Donald Trump, the head of their party, is in denial over his polling. What would you tell Democrats, though, who may be getting ahead of themselves about what they should be cautious for at this point? Yeah, I mean, look, I think right now what Democrats need to focus on is getting sort of solidarity after some bruising primaries. What needs to happen now is that the loser in the primary needs to endorse the winner. That needs to happen in Michigan, that happened in Texas, those kind of things.

5:49The Democrats need to get together and sort of—even though there's a lot—look, there's a lot happening in the Democratic Party right now, but right before the midterms, and we're like a little bit less than 90 days from the midterms, Democrats really need to be focused on unity, on turning out their voters, on exciting their base, which is excited, and about, you know, getting voter turnout and making sure that the midterms are safe. Because remember, there's a lot of voter intimidation coming from the Republican side and a lot of, you know, sort of stuff coming from Trump world that, you know, is problematic for any stretch of reasons.

6:28So, Rick, on the other side of this, we reported at MSNOW that associates of Trump's own political operation understand he's not going to perfectly echo the GOP strategic messaging campaign. He's going to say whatever he feels like saying on any given day. But what What would you tell the Senate GOP over their meeting in which they were expressing concerns about Trump and the lack of seriousness in which he has taken the midterms here? I mean, have they not met him? This is a man who does not think about the Republican Party as a party he has to help. It is it's all a one way street for him. It's like, do they obey me?

7:04Do they like me? Do they come and kiss the ring? and really their electoral prospects this year have been damaged because of Donald Trump's actions on tariffs, on the war, on a host of other areas. And the one thing they should do, which is to get some daylight on him and talk about affordability, is the one thing they can't do. So instead, they're stuck with his messaging of screaming about imaginary communists everywhere. I think that it is a very tough spot for the Republicans. And the House is looking very, very problematic. And the Senate should have been a lot easier for them. And it's getting worse by the day.

7:39Molly, meanwhile, a moderate Democrat group known as Third Way is planning a$15 million spend to oppose progressive Dems and try to convince the country that progressive Democratic policies are not the way forward. Can the progressive movement, though, at this point, be stalled by Dems who, or moderate Dems who are concerned that they can't win in battleground RACES OR DOES THIS ONLY HURT THE WIDER DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS A WHOLE AT THIS POINT? I THINK IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHAT THIS MONEY WILL DO. LOOK, THE THING WE 'VE SEEN FROM THE MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS IS THAT CANDIDATE QUALITY MATTERS.

8:17AND EVEN IF A SPEND WILL HELP, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY GET A CANDIDATE OVER THE LINE. AND I THINK, LIKE, WITH THE PROGRESSIVES WHO WON, THEY HAVE BEEN ACTUALLY VERY STRONG CANDIDATES. LIKE, WHEN YOU HEAR ELSAID SPEAK, HE'S A VERY GOOD SPEAKER AND HE HAS THE SAME THING THAT ZORAN HAS WHERE HE'S VERY GOOD AT STAYING ON MESSAGE. I MEAN, HE HAS THIS CALL AND RESPONSE, MONEY IN YOUR POCKET, MEDICARE FOR ALL. LIKE, THESE ARE THINGS THAT VOTERS HAVE SAID THEY WANTED. AND REMEMBER, DEMOCRATS, THE DEMOCRATIC BASE IS VERY ANGRY AND THEY WANT TO SEE THEIR PEOPLE FIGHTING FOR THEM. AND THIS MAY NOT BE SO SIMPLE.

8:53THIS MAY NOT JUST BE PROGRESSIVES VERSUS MODERATES. THIS MAY BE AN ANGRY BASE THAT feels the party has not delivered for them, and them wanting candidates who are offering something that feels like it's going to happen imminently. And so I don't know that the framing is as simple as that. Also, there are some real problems with the Democratic establishment right now, like the DNC, and I just don't understand why they're focusing on a part of the party or even, you know, when they could be focusing on the sort of larger infrastructure problems, you know, that money could go to candidates and not against Democratic candidates.

9:34Rick, while we're talking about the factions that exist within the Democratic Party, I believe you and I, I was going back, we first sat down and met up for coffee in Tallahassee literally a decade ago here this summer. And we were talking about the future of the GOP at that point. But when you're talking about the future of the Democratic Party, this time, 10 years later, I'm going to ask you, because you're looking at progressive Abdul El-Sayed running in Michigan, but also you have your fellow Republican, David Jolly, running as a Democrat now for governor of Florida. What does the Democratic Party's future look like?

10:09And if you were advising a Republican at this point, they're running against a Democratic Party that has a lot of elements to it at this point. Look, the Republicans would like to categorize all Democrats as wild-haired, flaming communists, ignoring candidate quality, as mentioned just a moment ago. Look, they've got candidates across the political spectrum running in the country in states where they fit. And Syed, he fits, he works for that state. He works for Michigan. Maybe that wouldn't work in North Carolina. But in North Carolina, we've got a great candidate who's more in the center left.

10:47In Florida, Jolly is in the center left. And all these Democratic candidates, it's actually inverted what the Republican Party used to be. You used to have liberal Republicans, moderate Republicans, conservative Republicans. Now you only have Trump Republicans. And the Democrats have got candidates running who are in all different wings of the party. So it is a little bit more of a slippery target for the GOP to say, absolutely all of them are the same as Mamdami or the same as AOC or the same as the squad. It's a really tough assignment because you see these people who have also this year come out, the Democrats have also come out with a slate of much more talented candidates than they have in a long time.

11:24So I think that they're in a better position to resist some of that attack vector from the GOP. I'd just like to add one thing. There's also a group of independents in states where the Democratic Party brand is bad. And they are running not as left versus right, but as up versus down. And so you have people like Dan Osborne in Nebraska and Rob Sand in Iowa and Josh Turek in Iowa who are candidates that are actually trying to get this movement, this progressive—it's not progressive. It's more just like a worker movement, a union movement. And I don't think—I think it defies naming in a way. It's really its own thing.

12:12And I think that the fact that they're not running as Democrats, that they're running as independence in states where Democratic brand is bad, is meaningful. Rick, we've got one last quick one for you here. I'll push back a little bit on the idea that the GOP is now wholly in lockstep with Donald Trump in uniform, because if I may, it seems like there's almost factions of MAGA now. Tucker Carlson, Thomas Massey, Marjorie Taylor Greene. What is the future of this sort of alternative MAGA, and does it have an impact in the Republican Party beyond 2026? The real question is, does Tucker take this in-house into the Republican process and become a lightning rod for a lot of that populist anger that is very anti-war, etc.?

12:56or does he do it on the outside and try to form a new party or a new movement that I think that would be very dangerous for the Republicans? Because even if it only pulls two or three percent, it's going to cause a very large upset in the electoral chemistry for the GOP at the presidential level. Rick Wilson, appreciate it much, my friend. I'll come back for a coffee down in Tallahassee with you. Molly, stick with us here. You'll be joining us here later this hour. I end later in the show. Did Trump just get busted cheating at golf again? How is the most absurd story of the week reveals something serious.

13:27Famed sports writer Rick Riley will be here. Also ahead, why Todd Blanche's bid to get confirmed as attorney general is still not a slam dunk. Plus, I fact check a new GOP smear campaign that is a long, ugly history. But first, new corruption fears amid revelations about Trump's plans for his luxury jet from Qatar. We're back in just 90 seconds.

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15:16It's about the controversial gift, if not the most questionable one ever, that we've seen given to a president and that president accept. The Qatari donated Air Force One, a$400 million luxury jet that the Trump administration insisted would go to Trump's presidential library after his term. But now, the New York Times reports that could all be changing. An anonymous White House official telling the Times, quote, no final decision has been made about which plane will go to the library. NOW, ERIC TRUMP IS SAYING AN OLD AIR FORCE ONE WILL BE PUT ON DISPLAY AT THE TRUMP LIBRARY AND THAT IT IS QUOTE, NOT THE PLAN AT THE MOMENT TO BRING THE QATARI JET TO THE LIBRARY.

15:53THAT LEAVES ITS FATE UNCLEAR, AS NBC NEWS REPORTS. NO DECISION. WELL, THAT IS A START CONTRAST TO THIS CLAIM TRUMP MADE IN MAY OF LAST YEAR. DO YOU PLAN TO USE THE PLANE AFTER YOU LEAVE OFFICE? NO, I DON'T. NO. IT WOULD GO DIRECTLY TO THE LIBRARY AFTER I LEAVE OFFICE. I WOULDN'T BE USING IT. THINGS LOOK VERY DIFFERENT NOW. REMEMBER, TRUMP FLEW ON THIS PLANE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT LACKS CRUCIAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. TRUMP HIMSELF ADMITTING THAT. AND THE TRUMP DOJ TOOK THE EXTRAORDINARY STEP OF ISSUING SUBPOENAS FOR NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALISTS OVER THEIR REPORTING ABOUT THE SECURITY CONCERNS. EVENTUALLY WITHDRAWING THOSE SUBPOENAS AMID A COURT FIGHT.

16:35ALL OF THIS NOT ONLY RAISING MAJOR SECURITY BUT ALSO ETHICAL CONCERNS. As Newark Magazine reports, quote, ethics experts have suggested that the Trump administration's acceptance of the plane likely runs afoul of federal law, which bars the acceptance of gifts from foreign governments without prior congressional approval, a situation that would likely grow even more complex if Trump tried to retain the use of the plane once out of office. This is just the tip of the iceberg of corruption allegations plaguing Trump, though. Trump was also gifted a diamond-encrusted ring from a Belgian trade group after he exempted diamonds from his tariffs.

17:12Truth Social is now selling early access to Trump's posts, and he's made more than a billion dollars in crypto alone. We should note that the White House insists Trump and his family don't have conflicts of interest. There's a lot to get into. Tim O 'Brien and Molly Jungfaster here to break it all down after a short break.

17:46I CAN'T HEAR. I CAN'T HEAR. TIM, WHY WOULDN'T THE TRUMP DONATE THE JET TO THE LIBRARY? AND WHAT IS THE BIGGEST CONFLICT OF INTEREST PROBLEM IN YOUR MIND FOR THE PUBLIC?

18:05A LOT OF MONEY. And the Trumps, when they see anything in front of them that's worth a lot of money, they take it, whether it's crypto or resort deals in the Middle East or giant jets that they're getting from a foreign government that presents possible national security concerns for the American voters and for the national security apparatus in Washington. You know, Vaughn, Liz Smith, the late great New York Daily News gossip columnist, once said to me in her Texas drawl, you know, honey, the only thing you need to know about Donald Trump is that he's a seven-year-old grown old. And like a seven-year-old, Donald Trump loves his toys, and he loves to surround himself with bling.

18:51He lives in a triplex in Trump Tower that looks like the high rollers suite at Caesar's Palace. Obviously, he loves gold. The Oval Office has been festooned with it in radically tasteless ways. And now he has his jet at his disposal, the inside of which looks like a jet you'd ferry high rollers to casinos in. There was never a chance that he was going to let go of this. And I think the idea that he would have given it to the library after he left office and could not use it, I think Donald Trump wants to use this until he's no longer alive. He loves what it demonstrates. He loves that he got it for free.

19:34I think the other thing to understand about him is I think at his core he is so greedy and it's a bottomless greed that he just doesn't restrain himself, even though he is vastly wealthy already. AND HE'S WILLING TO SACRIFICE THE PRESTIGE OF HIS OFFICE. HE'S WILLING TO PUT AMERICAN INTERESTS AT RISK SO HE CAN HAVE A BIG PLANE TO FLY AROUND. MOLLY, WHY SHOULD THE PUBLIC CARE ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS JET AND WHERE IT GOES? I THINK THAT THE PROBLEM WITH DONALD TRUMP IS THAT A LOT OF THE RULES THAT PRESIDENTS FOLLOWED BEFORE THIS WERE NORMS. They weren't necessarily illegal because there was never a feeling that they would do it.

20:20I mean, remember, the last president who polled as poorly as Donald Trump did was Nixon right before he resigned. So, like, there was—the office was a place where people would behave a little bit better than they might otherwise. And so there were these things that were called norms. And what Donald Trump has done is, if it's not illegal or sometimes—certainly the allegations make it seem as if it is illegal, he will continue doing it. But Donald Trump does, in fact—we see him just run through these norms. And the plane is a great example. You know, there are ethics—there are ethics norms that the president is supposed to follow, and this administration just runs right through them.

21:07And so that's why you have to care about the plane because you have to care about everything. Because what you see when one norm is broken, you see what happens here, which is a cascade of breaking of norms and a president who does not follow the rules the rest of us do. And then you get into a situation like we're in right now. Tim, we so often hear this idea of what are Democrats doing to stop the breaking of these norms, to stop the conflict of interest. And we should be clear that Senate Democrats, they have already introduced a bill to block Trump from keeping the plane after he leaves office.

21:40Senator Chris Murphy and nine other senators co-sponsoring a bill. If this legislation, let's say it somehow were to even pass, the president, of course, would veto it. But where do you see the ability to try to rein in some of these conflicts of interest? Is it Democrats potentially seeking super majority to overcome his veto with Republicans in 2027? OR IS THIS EVEN A MOVE AS LATE AS 2029, ACTIONS TAKEN NOW THAT COULD HAVE IMPACT ALMOST TWO AND A HALF YEARS FROM NOW? WELL, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANYTHING THAT CAN REALLY BE DONE RIGHT NOW UNLESS THE REPUBLICANS DEVELOP A SPINE BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS CAN INVEY AGAINST THIS.

22:23BUT AS MOLLY POINTED OUT, IT'S REALLY GUIDED BY NORMS. IT'S NOT GUIDED BY HARD CORE regulation and hardcore laws. The presidency has always been immune to the ethics guidelines that govern most of the federal government. The framers of the Constitution believed if you prescribe too many restraints around a president, it would constrain their ability to actually hold the office and run it properly. But they, of course, never envisioned that they would wind up with baby Huey in the Oval Office and someone who didn't care about observing norms, about having an ethical core. And so what Trump has done is—and he's done it in so many other ways around institutions in the U.S.—is he's exploited these gaps that exist around an office as powerful as the presidency.

23:18And so I think—I do think, you know, when you noted, will this have to wait until 2027 or beyond. I do think it's going to have to wait until the Democrats have enough of a majority on the Hill that new legislation can get passed and it's legislation that's veto-proof. And that might mean that it also has to await a trifecta where the Democrats control the White House and both branches of Congress. And I don't know that we'll see that anytime soon. So it's a real conundrum. And I don't know that he can be restrained right now. MOLLY, I THINK IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IT'S NOT JUST DEMOCRATS TALKING ABOUT PUBLIC CORRUPTION, BUT THERE'S NEW COMMENTS FROM J.D.

23:59Vance TALKING ABOUT FIGHTING CORRUPTION. TAKE A LISTEN. I DON'T CARE WHERE YOU CAME FROM. I DON'T CARE WHAT YOUR NAME IS. IF YOU ARE COMMITTING FRAUD AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, ALL OF US, ALL OF US IN PUBLIC LEADERSHIP SHOULD BE TRYING TO STOP IT AND TRY TO THROW YOU IN PRISON FOR ENRICHING YOURSELF OFF THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER. THERE'S A LEVEL OF COGNITIVE dissonance here that we hear from the vice president there, Molly, and you saw there on screen Secretary Clinton saying, quote, local man suggests jailing own boss. How galvanizing of an issue is this here? And is this the GOP acknowledging that they have to also act like they're addressing the idea that there's corruption that exists in our government?

24:42Yeah. And look, stock trading, these kind of things are 80-20 issues. People don't want their government cheating, right? They don't want their government taking from them. So I do think there is a cognitive dissonance here. And we have seen historically Trump will just sort of say things and run on them. Like in 2024, he said, I'm going to make things cheaper. It's very hard for presidents to make things cheaper. Once inflation gets going, it's very hard to reverse it. So what did Donald Trump do? He did things that made things more expensive. He has had success with claiming things that were not necessarily tethered to reality.

25:19And I think that's what this is. But clearly, when Democrats win back the House, which hopefully they will, and perhaps the Senate, they will be able to have greater accountability. So they'll be able to have hearings about some of this. They'll be able to at least get some sunlight into what's happening here. And though some of this stuff isn't illegal and it's against norms, being able to see what's happening, we still have elections in this country. And so these people are going to have to run for re-election, these members of Congress, and they will have to answer for this corruption. And we hear Democrats increasingly taking on the idea of corruption and using it as a cudgel on the campaign trail, increasingly so.

26:00My friend Molly Jong-Fast, Tim O 'Brien, appreciate you both here this evening. And later, famed sports writer Rick Riley on Trump, apparently cheating at golf and why it's so revealing. But first, my fact check of a new GOP campaign in these midterms. You could say it's partly a red scare.