Trump on Defense from Iran, Inflation, Epstein

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0:54Find Disclosure Day on major digital platforms now with no subscription required. also in theaters. Welcome to The Beat, everyone. I'm Ari Melber. As we come on the air to start the week, we are exactly 99 days away from the election. You might say Donald Trump has 99 problems and the midterms are one of them. And that's even according to his own advisors and allies. I'm going to show you some of the new numbers, including a special look at why both parties agree on one thing. If the elections were held tonight, Democrats would be in the lead position to retake power. So on the one hand, 99 days is still an eternity in politics.

1:33On the other hand, both parties, their candidates, even some Trump advisors are absorbing that reality and reacting. Now we begin, though, with the related fact that Donald Trump continues to bleed support from his own base. This is different, I'll just tell you, from the midterm projections because that has to do with who will actually turn out and what else will happen. And we're going to get to that with some very special guests tonight. But our lead story is the toxic combination of Donald Trump's ongoing governing problems. The high prices he hasn't stemmed, an Epstein scandal that won't go away even with Republicans controlling subpoena power, and now a war that continues long after Donald Trump said it would be done.

2:14Here's the new polling. Majorities disapprove of Trump's handling of many top issues, 65 percent on this economy, a higher 71 percent when you ask just about the high prices and inflation, that he has not only failed to stem, but the war has, of course, noticeably exacerbated. And then the war itself, that is the policy, not just how it's affecting your gas prices and pocketbook, another 63 percent disapproving there. MSNOW has reporting with sources saying that Trump's own advisers have basically conceded that things are so bad they must or at least are allowing Republican candidates to distance themselves from Trump, an operative saying you're not going to have candidates running out to defend the president's handling of the economy or the war.

2:58Republican insiders nervous about what some call a downright scary enthusiasm gap with conservatives just not excited to turn out for Donald Trump. That's Washington Post reporting the apathy reaching deep into the Republicans base, spreading to the party's, quote, most consistent voters. Now, this is a real thing. If you've been watching our coverage here in the summer, which is a time period where sometimes people understandably take a break from politics or news or look away, I have shared a point that was as true last week as is true this week as we start a new political week. There are certain things that Donald Trump can spin.

3:36Lord knows that he has had success telling his voters and his base all sorts of spin myths, sometimes outright lies about things, and they seem to kind of go along with it. And then there are things over in reality. Obviously, I just showed you some of the reaction to the gas prices and the inflation. Another Mideast forever war, which he promised he wouldn't start. And in the reality side of the equation, it's much harder for Trump to just lie his way through. And so take some groups that have been predisposed to give Trump a chance and liked some of the things he said to them. Even they, like young male conservative leading voters, are turning away.

4:15And you don't just have to look at the polling I mentioned or our reporting tonight. This is a reality issue that's gotten to the point that they talk about it openly over on Fox, where Tommy Lahren said young men are turning on MAGA and Trump. I think you're going to see especially some maybe some young men who are frustrated that things are costing a lot. Maybe they can't get a high paying job again. There's a lot of issues that Republicans have yet to address. I think that they can, but you have to answer something with something. You can't answer something with nothing. And you're going to see a lot of people that are not happy with the status quo.

4:53That's how it sounds over there, this disconnect. Politico also reporting that a quarter of people who voted for Trump believe the working class got substantial breaks from Trump's tax law, which Politico writes that signals how low public opinion is of the bill among his own base. That's to say nothing of the independent economists who warned about the cost and the deficit or liberals, progressives, labor households and others who say it just continues to widen the Wall Street gap at a time when people need real support. Another poll found, I should say, that about a fifth of Republicans, 18 percent, say they're just financially worse off since Trump returned to office.

5:28Now, that may sound like a small portion, but if that fifth of Republicans doesn't want to vote for more of this, more of the same, well, that's a huge midterm problem. Another humiliation coming out of that White House Correspondents' Dinner where Trump gave his big speech. We're not going to show you much of that. But then he also had to sit through and watch as Wall Street Journal reporters were fed it and awarded for their past independent, no holds bar journalism and coverage of the Epstein scandal, including the links to Trump. The footage you have here is how the president had to sit through that, all dressed up, all ready to have his big night.

6:07And then either he or his aides didn't get around to figuring out that this moment was coming as he tried to kind of laugh off and shrug off the fact that he was sitting through, listening to awards for the journalists who covered and documented that Trump signed this letter to Epstein for his birthday. That reporting was part of the onslaught that led to the release and the pressure of the Epstein files. I can mention that Donald Trump has vociferously denied being the author of that letter. They even sued the journal over it. But the award and the legal status thus far has fallen much more on the verified side of the journal's reporting and not the president's denial of his links and apparent praise of Epstein on his birthday.

6:49I want to bring in Jason Johnson, politics professor with Morgan State University, MSNOW political analyst, as we start the week. Welcome back. Good to be here, Ari. Great to have you. I mentioned this this gap because the reality seems to keep catching up with him. And even over the weekend in that sort of event, he had his agenda, the speech that we didn't find super newsworthy. So we're not playing much of it here on this program. But he still had to sit through, again, reality. The Wall Street Journal, owned by Rupert Murdoch, winning in court thus far to vindicate their reporting about him and Epstein.

7:26Your view on the reality of all this? Well, the reality of all this is that, you know, whatever metaphor you want to use, Donald Trump is not as popular as he once was. He's not able to bring back the old hits. He's not able to intimidate people either in the press or in politics or even voters the way that he used to. He's not coming back for some big reunion tour over the summer. So him having to sit there and not only hear people report on his misdeeds and his association with misdeeds and get awarded for it, but also having his own party members not back him up and not stand for him is an indicator of how weakened he is with only 99 days before the election.

8:08Mm hmm. Ninety nine, as you know, special number to many of us. I want to put up more of this Fox polling, Jason, because you really see where the preferences fall. And this is not the automatic for the Democrats. They had struggled in 24 to get out their message on some of these issues. So when you see the trust going towards the Dems, or perhaps you can tell us if you think it's also a rejection of Trump, but inequality, 20 plus edge, health care, inflation, a 10 edge, the economy, if you just say it writ large, it starts to shrink a little bit. Trump has had people who think that he's a businessman on that.

8:45Foreign policy, if you ask it that way, it kind of doesn't bring up the war, plus seven. And then you get to the areas where security and crime Trump is holding, but holding an edge that's far less than he used to have. What do you see in these current numbers from Fox? What I see is Donald Trump's inability to continue communicating with voters. Remember, we've talked about this already for several months. To continue with the metaphor, whenever Trump is asked about the economy, whenever he's talked about gas prices or inflation. He's basically saying, you know, hey, if you're having gas problems, I feel bad for you, son, because he doesn't really care.

9:18You look at what happened this weekend after giving a speech where, again, he doesn't get a lot of laughs. The White House correspondents doesn't get a tremendous amount of attention. What is he doing today? He's posting Rick and Morty memes on his social media, right? This is someone who has lost their ability to deliver messages to voters. And when that happens, people are just going to vote and they're going to do polls based on their lived experience. And their lived experience is completely separate from what they're hearing from the Republican Party. And Donald Trump can no longer control the narrative.

9:49Rick and Morty, a great cartoon. But in the world of that cartoon, as well as its creator, Dan Harmon, it's pretty critical of Trump greed, right-wing excess. I mean, it's not a political cartoon in its frame, but it's just funny. He's not exactly reaching for a Kid Rock meme. It's the problem he's had with a lot of other creatives and artists where he tries to say, oh, maybe I'm cool like them. And I want to be in that conversation, just like with FIFA and soccer. And then he's tempting them to punch back. We'll watch for that. But it brings me to the next thing I want to show you, which is Larry Kudlow is a longtime economic political.

10:26He worked for Trump. Talking about the charisma or riz, as they say, that's lacking. Here's what he observes. call it swag swagger riz aura or just plain messaging but the gop doesn't have it you're bungling everything nothing is getting done your messaging is non-existent you've lost your swag your swagger your riz or whatever the young people say no one knows what the heck you're doing sir They had no idea. Jason. And that's really cool. And here's the thing, Ari. I went in preparation for tonight. I went back and actually looked at the Republican Party platform from 2024. Right there in the first opening section, it talks about how wars are a bad idea.

11:16Trump was going to end unnecessary wars because wars lead to inflation. In their own words, the Republicans were not following their own party platform. So it's one thing if your leadership is a little bit off. Let Trump be Trump has been their attitude for 15 years now. But they can't even go back to what they put down in pen and paper in order to demonstrate to the people that they know what they're doing. It's common to have legislation sort of slow down during a campaign year. But it's completely different to have a Congress that can do nothing. They can't pass anything because when they try, Trump undermines it.

11:47They can't pass anything because when they try and sell it, Trump undermines it. This is a party in disarray. Regardless of what the New York Times wants to say about Democrats, the Republicans are the party in disarray 99 days out. Jason Johnson, good to have you lead us off. Thank you very much, sir. I'll tell folks what's coming up. We look at the details on that road to the midterms, and we have special guests on that and new reporting on the jet corruption. And by the end of the hour, we start the week here with your update on all the news and politics. But then we will get out to media mogul Byron Allen is making his beat debut.

12:22Interesting guy. We'll hear from him tonight. And I'll be back with you in 90 seconds.

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14:0599 days until the midterms, Democrats are hitting affordability. Democratic leader Jeffries was campaigning in Pennsylvania. This was just yesterday, contrasting what he says Trump's priorities for the country are with the financial struggles of most American people. MAGA Republicans can find money for Donald Trump's reckless war of choice in Iran. They can find money for his king-like ballroom. They can find money to unleash ICE brutality on American citizens and law-abiding immigrant families. But when it comes to making your life more affordable, the cookie jar is empty. That's the Democrats' message.

14:48You'll know it sort of sweeps up what's worked in some of these earlier races, including Mayor Momdani's affordability push in New York, and tries to make it very clear. It is anti-Trump, but it's not obsessed with Trump, his personality, his attacks on the rule of law and democracy, all important issues that Democrats have hit before. This is laser focused on how it's too expensive to live in Trump's America. And voters, some of them seem to agree. People are feeling the impact. Maybe they don't understand NATO, but they know their gas prices are high. They know that they're having trouble paying for things.

15:25So that affects them. voters have a clear idea of how we got here half of the public sees the gas prices as at this point financial hardship a whopping 78 percent as the trump administration just isn't focused on lowering prices meaning they've paid attention and the public overwhelmingly including republicans just doesn't think this is what he cares about now trump has demanded loyalty but as i mentioned this is new reporting that he is really changing it up and this is a sign of perhaps weakness or flexibility, but whatever word you want to use, the reporting is that the sort of Republican mothership is saying, yes, if candidates need to distance themselves from Trump and his policies to try to eke out a victory in these midterms, they can do it.

16:08Now, is that too little too late? Well, take a listen. In Maine, a state that has been in the bullseye for Democrats precisely because Susan Collins has proven to be much more conservative and MAGA friendly and pro-life than she ran on. We've been reporting on that. It's a must-win state, really, and here's what we're hearing out there. Susan Collins has voted with Donald Trump 96 % of the time. She stood with Donald Trump. She stood with ICE. My 83-year-old neighbor has voted for Susan Collins her entire career. He said to me two days ago, he said, I'm done with her. She's too much in Trump's back pocket.

16:46So that is what this election is about. if susan collins were voting as independently as she did earlier in her career we checked and at one point it was about 60 with her party and 40 against then she might have an accurate or logical message to those voters hey you could stick with her and still be against trump but she like so much of the magnified republican party can't land that as a true message with any voters who've been paying attention and that's why these midterms are harder for the republicans because while trump did stage a big comeback in 24, and his numbers were higher and people wanted to run with him, he has completely squandered that political capital, that support, and that polling in a rush.

17:29I mean, very quickly in the beginning of his second term. And that means a midterm that becomes a referendum on him is bad news for the Republicans. Now, we've got two special guests on these latest numbers when we come back.

17:5199 days to the midterms. We're joined by our special guest that we booked just for this countdown segment. John De La Volpe is director of polling at Harvard's Institute of Politics and MS Now contributor and Linda Killian, historian journalist, the author of The Swing Vote, The Untapped Power of Independence, who has come to us with both an independent perspective and an expertise on those independents who can matter so much. Welcome to both of you. John, what do you see as the state of play here 99 days out? So a few things, Ari, and I know you talked earlier about the generic ballot. I'm not sure that's the story.

18:24As good as a generic ballot looks today for Democrats, plus five, plus seven, plus 14, I think, with independents, Linda can fill us in on that. But Democrats are also leading among important groups like younger voters, like women, both tied with men. But I think the bigger dynamic is this is an election based upon people's experiences. Okay. Just like there was in 2024. And their experience is obviously driven by the lack of affordability, prices in the grocery store and gas, health care, and of course, housing. More important, I think, is a concern that two-thirds, according to several recent polls, show that the economy in this system is rigged.

19:07But when you dig one step deeper and you ask which party is more aligned with the elites right now, The party that was supposed to be for the working class person in 2024, which is the Republican Party, is seen as significantly more aligned with the elites today than Democrats. And I think that is the key to this election. Democrats are in a strong position right now. And I think they could potentially be even stronger as the message moves from Washington, D.C. to the individual states that are part of the battleground. Yeah. And that populism is something that both parties have fought over. I mean, Trump was trying to hit a different message in 24, aware, apparently, of those feelings and now has sort of lost the traction there.

19:55One more quote for you, John, and then we'll bring Linda in. But on your on your point, I'm reading here from a reporting where Republicans are scared. Here's a former Trump voter who says we voted for Trump and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do. This is Lance Salentic, a 56 year old retiree who spoke to the Post. Gas prices were going to be two dollars. Food was going to be cheaper. Energy prices were going to be in half. We were going to get two rebate checks to the American people. We weren't going to have any new wars. It goes on to say we were going to build a wall and deport 30 million illegal aliens.

20:29And then referring to Trump, he did none of it. Selentic telling The Post he'd either sit out this year's election or vote for Democrats. John, I picked that quote because it shows a person who listened to Trump, who can tick off the campaign promises, remembers them, and apparently has a report card that he's 0 for 5. Your thoughts on that? Yeah, listen, Ari, we talk, I talk and listen to regular voters every single night of the week. I hear that time and time again. The coalition is narrowing by the day. I'll give you one other sad story I heard just last week. There's a former Army veteran who hurt himself in his family restaurant, had to get stitches.

21:15He told me he had to choose between getting anesthesia and his regs because Donald Trump promised more affordability, promised he'd have more opportunity. instead had to, what he said, raw dog the stitches, which costs$800, rather than foregoing rents. These are the choices that millions of Americans are making, and they tie it back to the failed promises of Donald Trump. A lot of people voted outside of their political values because they thought he'd be a deliverer on some of these things. And that's what I think the story of this election so far. Linda? Well, I assume you want me to talk about independents and where they stand in terms of this election.

21:59And I wanted to say the number of independents are creeping up. Gallup in January had the number at 45 percent. A CNN poll last month says 47 percent of voters say they are either independent or have no party affiliation. That's the largest voting group in the country and is almost the combined total of Republicans and Democrats. In 10 states, independents are the largest group of voters, including Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. So these are important swing states. Now, what will they do in the election? Joe Manchin, a former Democratic senator from West Virginia, just last week announced he's creating something called the Independent Leadership Council.

22:44along with his daughter, Heather, to support independent candidates around the country. Now, it's late in the game to recruit, train, and support independent candidates. But there are already some running for the U.S. Senate in Montana, Idaho, and Nebraska, and for governor of Maine. And Maine, like you mentioned Maine, it's a super important state this time. Like Alaska, it has ranked choice voting, which makes it easier for independent candidates to succeed. And Angus King is an independent, so they're used to voting for independence. But young people and independents have an extremely negative view of both political parties.

23:24According to a recent Pew poll, Democrats have a 13 percent advantage with independent voters over Republicans. And independents think the Republican Party is too extreme. But they're also undecided and they aren't sold on the Democrats. The Democrats have to close the deal. And just like those disaffected Republicans that you were talking about, it's a much harder sell to vote for Democrats than to just stay home. Probably a lot of those Republican voters will just stay home. The independents don't turn out in the midterms like the core party voters do. So they have to be excited to turn out.

24:08And Linda, what do you see with younger people, either who could be independents or are just a little more up for grabs and sporadic? Because we heard so much about younger men and Trump's advances there. And some of the new polling suggests they're either they're lapsed MAGA or they're just not feeling it to Linda. Yeah, that's right. The MAGA young men may stay home. Or they might, I don't know, Maine is a great example. You talked about Maine and Susan Collins. There's been a lot of disarray up there. You know, they had the candidate Graham Plattner, and he withdrew after allegations of sexual assault.

24:52He was considered, I don't know, sort of a macho guy that would appeal to those kind of voters. On Saturday, Maine Democrats picked Troy Jackson, an economic populist from northern Maine who worked on Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign. He will challenge Collins. He may appeal to those kind of voters. He has sort of a working class demeanor. He's from northern Maine. And Trump has never been popular in Maine. Collins has hung on, but Trump has never carried Maine in three presidential elections. Yeah. John? I think your point about younger people is important. Younger people, I think, I study them at the Institute of Politics, are the key to this election.

25:40They were the key to Trump's failure in the 2018 midterms, where 75 % of young people who voted supported House Democrats. I don't think it's going to be that high, and we had record turnout among younger people. twice as many young people voted in the 2008 midterm as in any midterm the previous 40 years. So I don't see that historic level of participation, but that's the difference, I think, between a good and a great night for Democrats. It's essentially a toss-up, Ari, among Gen Xers and baby boomers, and it's a 10, 15-point lead among Gen Zers and millennials, And the degree to which they're enthusiastic, they feel some agency, that their vote can matter, that could be the tipping point in a lot of these battleground states.