Trump Ripped for Inflation, Debt, War, Ahead of Midterms

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0:56Go find your Spritz Vibe before summer ends. Welcome to The Beat. I'm Ari Melber. And as we end a pretty busy week, considering it's summer and government tends to slow down, but we had an election, we have new polls, we've got some economic problems for Donald Trump, and we are seeing this is very clearly the August, the summer, where Trump's second term unraveled. The polls tanking. He's at 30 percent overall. Worse on the economy, just tucking below there at 28 percent. And if you want to move beyond just polls, which we've all seen the limitations of, there are a bunch of other indicators.

1:31several of them are economic, that show why the Trump economy just isn't working for people. Consider one of the largest employers and retailers in our country, Walmart, a bellwether there for many things in our economy, and it's posting the weakest growth in years because of the high prices that Trump campaigned against but has failed to stem, and in many ways the supply chain suffering under the war and the gas hikes as well. Then there's the national debt. Now this is something that kind of exists in general and has gone up for various reasons. We saw that in COVID spending. We've seen it with Republican tax cuts.

2:05So there's nothing new about the debt per se, but with Trump, they rushed through those tax cuts for the super rich and we're now at$40 trillion. So even though both parties have certainly contributed, Trump is in charge. He has made it worse. And now his treasury department is basically trying to do these quick band-aids or sugar high fixes to cover up a problem that will not be going away just with the tricks they've tried thus far. Here's how the New York Times puts it. This year alone, the U.S. is on track to borrow over$2 trillion to pay for the obligations, including the war in Iran and those tax cuts, which I just mentioned that the Times reminds everyone Republicans enacted just last year.

2:43And remember, even if Republicans generally try to do tax cuts and have run on them, Trump pledged two big things, lowering prices and no more forever wars in the Middle East. And so had there been any seriousness about this, they might have said, well, let's get the prices under control. Let's make sure foreign policy is working and maybe go to the tax cuts later. That's not what they did. And so everyone's now paying for it. And a lot of people are mad. This isn't just some Trump critic or liberal Democratic thing. The polling you just saw, the problems with prices, the problems at Walmart. These are things that people are mad about.

3:19And by definition, the statistics show it's a lot of former Trump voters who are mad about this. Now, I mentioned what the Treasury Secretary has been trying to do. Mr. Bessent has been trying to sort of juice short-term fixes, sugar highs in the bond market and play defense on the high prices. And while a lot of folks say his stumbling performance has actually maybe made things even a little bit worse. We've got a spike in oil prices today that I don't really understand. And there's nothing magic about the 40 trillion number. And we can grow our way out of that. After the deportations that we've seen during President Trump's administration and the closing of the border, this unfettered migration, we don't need to produce as many jobs.

4:05We're seeing the wage increase, especially in a lot of the hospitality sector has come down. The wage inflation has come down. jobs fell in the most recent report and trump's point person says we don't need to produce as many jobs you really can't make it up i mean as i mentioned trump has always been a bit of a bellwether for what he thinks people want he has been caught lying and failing but when he thought people wanted lower prices he talked all about that in 24 and when he saw that both parties were sick of forever wars. He talked all about that. Now you have the collision of these two things.

4:45And in the summer that it's coming all apart for him, his own handpicked person says, we don't need to produce as many jobs. So if you thought last month's jobs report was discouraging, well, at the top, they apparently don't think they need to fix it. How are you going to fix a problem you don't see? You also heard their wage inflation has come down. But Again, this is a kind of corporatist or elitist thing where they're saying, well, salaries may not just grow the way you're used to. And that's before you get to the fact that the high prices have wiped out most of the real wage gains people have.

5:23This is not one of those issues where you say, oh, we're so divided and people don't know what's going on and myths and lies online have confused people. The Walmart data is exactly how people are acting because they are concerned that with high prices, they have to change their behavior. The near all time highs in credit card debt shows the crunch people are feeling under Trump to say nothing of the open ended war. If this is the summer where it all spiraled out of control, don't say we didn't warn you about all of the signals going into these rapidly approaching midterms. Now I want to bring in our special guest, Jason Johnson, Aldix professor with Morgan State University, and MSNL political analyst Molly Jong-Fast from the New York Times.

6:05Jason, your thoughts? This is bad, and I've read several different pieces about this, how bad these poll numbers are for Trump, how much of a concern it is. The people in the White House are like, you know, how low can you go? How low can you go? 30 % is terrible heading into Labor Day weekend, which is pretty much where people start paying attention. But I think it's pretty obvious. We've seen this the entire year. The president is completely detached from the economy that people are experiencing. And that's trickling down to all of his spokespeople. So what you've got is a bunch of congressional candidates out there running around trying to deliver a local message when their boss in the White House is louder than them.

6:42And the message right now seems to be he doesn't care. You got to trust me. And that's why Democrats are doing so well in the congressional ballots. Yeah. And, Molly, Besant would have a problem from those ridiculous remarks. I mean, who tells people we don't need job growth at a time like this when jobs are sagging and there's these AI fears we've been covering. That's what you might call the messaging. He also has a substantive problem, which is this debt that everyone's paying more attention to that they're trying to kind of, frankly, BS the bond market over. We don't get into all the details, but it's kind of a sugar high ploy.

7:18Is built on the tax cuts that they ram through. So the substance is as bad as the messaging. Yeah. I mean, look, Donald Trump, if I were the Trump White House, the thing that would keep me up at night is the fact that my boss seems not at all interested in all of his problems. Right. Like the most recent news this this afternoon was that the Supreme Court is going to let him keep going on the ballroom. Like if you have a group of you know, if you're polling terribly on the economy and people are saying I can't afford to fill my car up with gas and you're Marie Antoinette-ing it through Washington, D.C., working on the ballroom and the reflecting pool and, you know, building the Trump triumphal arch.

8:00Like, it just shows a complete lack of focus. And we're less than 80 days from the midterms. Like, this would be the moment for him to get out there and say the stuff that got him elected in 24, which are, you know, I'm going to make things cheaper, given a reason for the fact that we're still six months into the Iran war. And gas is more than four. You know, the national average of gas is more than four dollars a gallon. And like people voted for exactly the opposite. So give them an explanation as to why they're living this way. Right. And Jason, the messaging is so bad that it sort of speaks to how bad a hand they have.

8:39When it comes to Trump losing elections, right, he just lies about that. And we've seen how that's gone. But lying to people about how bad the economy is, trying to pretend it's better than it is, actually makes them quite angry. And so they've balanced between that with backlash and then other stuff that's even more kind of out there like, well, I guess if we can't lie, let's get a time machine and talk about Joe Biden. Here's the RNC chair. Republicans have had the White House, the House, the Senate for 18 months now. How do you convince people that you're the right choice to make things like gas and groceries cheaper and not the Dems?

9:18And that's why we're doing things like the midterm convention, because we got to get the truth out to the American people. You know, the president's still dealing with the Biden issues that were left over. Jason. You can only blame your ex-husband for so long, right? Like at some point, at some point, it's you at some point, it's your particular problem. And that's the thing. Nobody, the voters are not thinking about Joe Biden anymore. They're not even thinking about Kamala Harris anymore. And I've said all along, this election, it's not about left versus left. right? It's not about progressive versus centrist.

9:49It's about do nothing versus do something. If you look like you're doing something, they're going to be happy. And again, not that I would ever want to advise Donald Trump, but if he wants to be doing something, look at what Mom Donnie is doing. Be a pothole president. Look at Karen Bass. Look at Brandon Scott. Look like you're doing something. You have a whole town, Gary, Indiana, that hasn't had power for a week. Why don't you go there? Why don't you bring power back to people in the Midwest? There are things happening in this country where this administration could look like they're doing something, but they're more interested in taking black heroes off of aircraft carriers and talking about brand new extensions to the White House than they are actually doing something that people are asking for for the midterms.

10:26Yeah. And you mentioned midterms, Molly, the nonpartisan folks who track all this stuff, the sort of Kornackis of the world, they see the Dems now improving on the Senate. And again, that may not be because the Dem candidates are amazing. It's partly because of the economic conditions I mentioned. But here's a quick political report, one of the Bibles. And they say it right here. They moved it. The Senate, that's the whole kit and caboodle to a toss up. And if you look at the paths, they say there are actually multiple paths to take the Senate to remind everyone who's not a total nerd. You know, the Senate is a funny thing because only a third of its membership are up in any given year.

11:05So the path thing matters, the kind of arbitrary question of which states are up and it's improved for the Dems. Molly. Yeah. And there are things like Iowa, which, again, you know, we've talked about this before. I've interviewed Rob Sand and Josh Torek. Those are that's a state that has a unique set of problems that are really, you know, cancer, groundwaters polluted, something like that, you know, where that's like they really and then they've been really hit by the Trump tariffs. And there are a bunch of states that have unique problems. I mean, again, Trump had an opportunity with the tariffs when the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs to just be like, oops, we did it.

11:44And then the tariffs would have gone away and things would have gotten maybe a little bit cheaper. But instead, he was like, no, more tariffs. You know, I'm going to get into a contest with Canada. So, again, like you can really draw a line between the war in Iran and your gas prices going up and the tariffs and things being more expensive. And so for Donald Trump into the midterms, when he told people he was going to make things cheaper, you can very clearly see that he has done exactly the opposite. Yeah. And we've ping ponged on the war here several times because it's affecting everything at home.

12:19People are getting asked about it. Here's a on Fox pressing a senator on this from the from the Republican Party. Some things are more important than elections. I got it. But again, the election is coming and there are a lot of Republicans who are concerned about being reelected or going against a competitor. How do you think the war is going to play into the elections? Well, I think we got to bring gas prices back down. Jason? So this has gone from like price is right, choose your own door to now like pick your own adventure for the Democrats. If you had asked two months ago, they had only one path to success.

12:58Now you've got Republican senators all over the country nervous, nervous in ways that they hadn't been in the past. It's not just Iowa. It's not just Texas. You would have to be incredibly arrogant and naive to look at what just happened in Florida this week and see Angie Nixon, who beat someone at a primary, who outspent her by$10 million. If you're in Florida, you have to start paying attention to that. From a foreign policy standpoint, how are you going to answer the concerns that voters have about the war when your candidate in South Carolina is like, I don't really do foreign policy, right?

13:27These are serious issues. So now the Democrats can expand their money map for the Senate in a way that they couldn't do a few months ago, and the Republicans still don't have any leadership. And money may not be enough to dig them out of the rhetorical hole and the actual lived policy hole that Americans are in right now. Hmm. Both of you stay with me and we're going to bring in another special guest as we go roaring through this Friday. We'll be back together in 90 seconds.

13:54I'm Matt Dorner, CEO of Milwaukee Downtown Bid 21. Our business leaders value downtown Milwaukee. I'm Ray Siever, CEO of Zizzle Health. As a technology company, we rely on strong connections. We're committed to growing our operations in the heart of downtown Milwaukee, bringing us closer to a workforce that works for our clients and for our partners. Get down to business at milwaukee downtown.com. Ever notice how life's best stories don't happen in your living room? They happen on the open road, out on the water, or parked under the stars. At Progressive, they get that you want to focus on the experience, not worry about the what-ifs.

14:35That's why they offer quality insurance designed for your ride, whether that's a boat, RV, or motorcycle. Adventure with confidence. Visit Progressive.com and see how easy it is to protect your favorite way to get away. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Not available in D.C. Prices vary based on how you buy. Celsius Spritz Vibe Summer Edition is here. Meet the new sparkling limoncello twist flavor, inspired by the vibrant, refreshing flavors of summer in Italy. With crisp limoncello flavor and a subtle twist of sweetness, it's the perfect way to bring a little Italian-inspired energy wherever the season takes you.

15:10Whether you're soaking up the sun, chasing your next adventure, or making the most of every summer moment, Spritz Vibe Summer Edition is ready to refresh your routine. Go find your Spritz Vibe before summer ends. We're back with Jason and Molly. And part of what we've been talking about is both the war and the economic issues being a drag on Republicans in the midterms. And to add in a little bit of that economic perspective, we have Tom Rogers, been on the beat before, longtime media executive. Now that we're an independent company inside of Versant, I should mention, he's also a senior advisor to Versant, our parent company, Newsweek editor at large.

15:47Kind of a mogul, Tom, is what you are. And so I'm curious what you think of the Treasury Secretary struggling to both solve what are long-term serious issues in the economy and the bond market, not something you can just fix in a week. And then certainly, I think by any definition, committing political malpractice, saying whether he meant it or not, that maybe we don't need more jobs. it's hard to understand where they are on messaging for a former bond trader who knows the markets very well to talk about u.s treasuries having a liquidity problem and having to solve for that uh just is nonsensical uh they're trying to deal with interest rates he uh bungled that attempt.

16:34But overall, going back to your discussion a minute ago, Trump is acting as if he's an agent of the Democratic Party. And it's kind of crazy, but almost everything he's doing, mocking affordability, talking about having won a war that he can't get out of, and the Treasury Secretary talking about getting to the other side as if that's going to happen in a week or two, where they have no idea where they're going to get to the other side. And this goes way beyond what the Republicans are talking about on gas prices. This goes to diesel prices, which has to do with the transport cost of everything, which are much more in danger of rapid increase.

17:15It goes to the cost of fertilizer, which goes to the cost of food, which is also, with the Strait of Hormuz having slowed traffic so considerably, a huge problem going into the fall. So there's nothing in sight here that is going to let up on the economic front between now and November. The numbers, the polling numbers you showed in the beginning are not only so bad, but when you look at independence, the independent vote there, over 40 percent underwater relative to cost of living in the economy. You can't cure that between now and the midterm elections. And that's just a devastating number. Yeah.

17:54I mean, and Jason, to that point, whether people agree with it or not, historically, Trump and the Republican Party had an edge on the economy. You call that the kind of the apprentice effect, the idea that that he was cast as, at least in reality show land, a great business leader, business mind. And so this is the thing where, you know, you don't need your dentist to be super buff. You don't necessarily need your dentist to be brilliant. But you know where I'm going. You expect your dentist to have good teeth. I mean, at a minimum. And Trump has seen this crash, this reversal from the perception or the brand of business to now he got, you know, he got control back.

18:35He came back here. He's got a second term and everyone's feeling for all the numbers I already showed like this is some of the worst economics we've had since covid, which, of course, he was on the job then, too, Jason. Right. And look, every single branding thing that Trump ran on hasn't worked bad with the economy. Supposedly a dealmaker every other year. He's getting rings run around him by the Iranians. He's having rings run around him by the Russians. But but there's something even more specific about this drop that I think is important for people to understand. It's age based, right? Like Trump's losses are not just across the board.

19:08It's as the poet said, you know, every act, everybody acts according to the season that they're born in, right? Like Gen X is feeling this economic pain differently than seniors. Seniors are feeling the economic pain different than younger people. What you're seeing is white men 30 and under who don't have a college degree, who spent a lot of time on the road working construction, working blue collar jobs. They're feeling these gas prices. Trump's numbers are almost equal with Democrats amongst non-college educated white men. Gen X gives him his worst ratings overall. Seniors, if you're looking at key places like Michigan and Arizona, seniors, he's only ahead by like eight or nine points.

19:42Republicans are only ahead with seniors by less than 10 percent. So across the board, he's damaged. But on key voting demographics for the fall, he is doing absolutely terrible. Molly. Yeah, I mean, I just the thing that I'm still baffled by is why he just makes no effort to do any of the stuff you would want to do coming up into a midterm. Right. Like he just cannot control the messaging. And what we saw in this administration is when this administration started, when they were at their height of their power, they messaged in lockstep. Everyone said the same thing, no matter what cabinet secretary.

20:19I mean, it was just like, you know, it was sort of it was sort of unsettling. And now you see that they can't quite get there. You know, everybody's sort of saying something different. You know, they're saying maybe you don't need jobs. I mean, that kind of stuff. That is only because the sort of the wheels are falling off. And I think that that's what we're seeing here is just a president who's unfocused, who's 80 years old, who's falling asleep during meetings. I mean, this is not, you know, and a White House that can't control the narrative. Yeah. You know, Tom, I don't usually quote Chinua Achebe, but it is Friday.

20:57And it was the idea that the center cannot hold. And I wonder whether there is this this growing feeling. I mean, when you have the AI stuff we've been covering, the obvious war problems, what is a jobs crisis? And we discussed this administration not wanting to do much about it. And then these jitters in the wider bond market, which are a question, as I said, in all fairness, not only of Trump's recent history, but he's in charge during these jitters. And you kind of start to feel like, you know, are we are we risking something even larger here when this is the state of leadership? I think we are risking something larger, not only in terms of impact on the economy, but everything we've been discussing is great news for the Democrats.

21:42And it's not where my focus is as a result. I think the bigger impact here is he hasn't changed course with correct messaging because that would involve admitting you're wrong and he's been wrong. And that's something he can't do. What is in store for us here is I think in November, we're going to see an attempt to overturn the elections. That's very much where he's gearing his attention, you know, calling Democrats, godless communists, the worst possible threat to the country since World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, 9-11. He's talking as if they are prepared to seize ballots, create an emergency.

22:25and I think that's really where we got to focus. I don't think they're going to course correct between now and November and that means the only way for them to win is to steal an election and I am very concerned that emergency powers that the president has never used, he will try to use and with that, we will find ourselves finally in a true constitutional crisis with all that means in terms of impact to the country and the economy. Yeah. Jason, I got 30 seconds. if you want to respond to that. Well, to go with what Mike said and your previous person quoted, things can fall apart, right? That literally might be what we have this fall.

23:04Things could absolutely fall apart. I don't necessarily have the fear that our elections will be entirely canceled, but I do have concerns that in critical races, like in places like Michigan, like in places like Florida, you may see ICE agents suddenly showing up at voting districts. And that's the kind of thing that, quite frankly, most activists and organizers on the ground that I've heard of in those states are prepared for. But I don't know if the country's prepared to see that kind of interference on a national basis. Yeah, really interesting. Each of you bringing your own, of course, background expertise and perspective tonight.

23:33So glad we had the benefit of that, Tom, Jason, and Molly. Thanks and have a great weekend. I want to tell folks what's coming up because I said we're running out of time in this segment because we have a lot coming. And we're going to, for one thing, look at the power of protest. And by the end of the hour, I'm going to share something that I actually have never done on this show before, which is tell you about my parents and part of the way that they raised me. I'll explain. It all makes sense. There are going to be pictures of me as a kid. Whether that makes you stay or go, you know, that's up to you.

23:59But next, we look at the revenge on the Mar-a-Lago investigators and the Trump DOJ power grab running into a wall. We have the great Joyce Vance next.

24:18There are a couple of facts that haunt Donald Trump's history and will forever be part of how he is viewed. in American political history, which is that after leaving office, he was caught with stolen documents. They were deemed stolen by the Justice Department. An independent prosecutor who had previously investigated both Democrats and Republicans pursued that case, and as we all know, thought there was evidence that at the time, former President Trump was a criminal, and he was indicted as such. We all know what happened. He won an election. That case never went to trial, and he is technically legally presumed innocent in a case that did not ultimately go to a guilty verdict.