Trump WH Swamped by Iran, Epstein, Prices, Court Losses

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0:49Take the next step toward a data-driven career. Learn more at geeseonline.illinois.edu backslash analytics. Welcome to Beat Everyone. I'm Ari Melber. We have a story tonight that we're following with the growing outrage over another ICE fatality, an officer killing an immigrant from Mexico who'd lived in the U.S. for 35 years, a father in Texas. An important story. And we will bring you the latest on that in tonight's broadcast. We begin with the president losing the war and losing the peace. The setbacks range from the domestic to the international. We have the Epstein scandal roaring back. We have the souring on the Trump economy.

1:27We have, of course, his Qatar jet gift and his own supporters turning on him over an Iran war that they did not want and that is not ending well. The ceasefire is all but over. Each side is attacking the other. So we have to say that while many had hoped that this could be another momentary set of volleys, it looks like something deeper, a crack up of the very end to the war that Trump had promised. He is losing the peace. This has become a political problem that Trump can't shake, the Post reports. It was clear that the president was in a rush, apart from what might have been the best type of diplomacy or what the experts would say, to try to get this thing claimed as wrapped up going into the summer and the midterms.

2:11that failed. And over on Fox, there are even Trump voters criticizing what they see as this obvious failed end to a costly war. How do you feel about this war continuing, about this war dragging on? I'm never a fan of it. So, no, I'm not. I'm not thrilled with this at all. So much uncertainty related to what's going on with Iran. It's going to have a direct impact on inflation. He was a no-war president, and now we're at war. The one thing we need is a different negotiating team. If we go to negotiations, and that's a big if, this team can't do it. Have a different team go in there, and we should demand different people.

2:53If you could talk directly to President Trump about this war, what would you tell him? I would tell him enough. Enough is how a lot of people are feeling, but the problem with starting these kind of wars, as Donald Trump once used to also agree upon that being a problem, is that they are harder to end than they are to start. And so here we are. There's also revelations about Trump's jet gift from Qatar. There was millions spent to refurbish this thing, which he then later wants to have for personal use after he leaves the presidency. But there's security concerns forcing Trump to use a different plane flying back to the U.S.

3:28overnight. National security veterans tell us The gifted plane lacks key military defenses of the original Air Force One, including the ability to refuel midair and missile defense systems. Meanwhile, as I mentioned, the Epstein probe has not ended despite Donald Trump's many efforts to make it kind of go away or get out of the headlines. Politico reports on that. A year after Congress started this investigations, Republicans are included in some of the plans to continue probing Epstein's powerful associates. Democrats say this will be central to their ongoing oversight of Trump if they win the majority in the midterms, something that he's clearly aware of and worried about.

4:05Then there are the legal losses. A top court rejects that bid by Trump to get his name back on the Kennedy Center. It is not the Trump-Kennedy Center, not under law. A Manhattan federal appeals court just rejected Trump's effort to try to get out of paying over$5 million in the E. Jean Carroll sex abuse and defamation case. This comes after a string of other court losses, including the quashing of one of those controversial election-related subpoenas where Trump was trying to relitigate 2020. And while he did make some noise down in Georgia, a judge recently ruling this week, it's too late to even go back down the memory hole of that old Trump loss.

4:44I want to bring in Checo Manduri, an Obama campaign veteran and Tara Palmiari, veteran journalist, author of the Red Letter on Substack, and host of the Tara Palmiari broadcast. podcast excuse me welcome to both of you uh che i put it simply because the old saying was in the middle east you can win the war right you could topple saddam hussein and lose the peace um here is it too simple too exaggerated to say that trump has lost this war by its own metrics and appears now to be losing the peace and the ceasefire yeah i mean he started a war and now he is losing it. He is absolutely showing an inability to execute the job of the presidency and be the steward of our foreign policy in a way that is smart or competent or well thought out.

5:35This is a disaster, a foreign policy disaster like I've never really seen in recent years. President Trump basically promised the opposite of this. He would stay out of foreign wars and we would have so much winning. Instead, he has gotten us into foreign wars and we have so much losing. It is an absolute disgrace. And it's one that, you know, I'm very sure the voters will punish him for in November. Here was Joe Rogan on this very issue. This war is not something anybody that's conservative wanted. Most people are horrified by the idea because Trump was elected. one of the pillars that he stood for, apparently, was that he doesn't want any more wars.

6:20Tara? Yeah, well, we know from reporting that inside of the White House, whenever Joe Rogan comes down on Donald Trump, this is a serious condemnation for them. And they are constantly trying to back channel to him, to control him on messaging. But this is a man who really can't be controlled, right? He's never been that type of person. But, you know, it's interesting that President Trump would follow the lead of Israel. They said to Trump, this is easy. The Shah is weakened right now. He just had an uprising. But if anything, they misinterpreted it. First of all, this is a country of 90 million people.

7:01This is not Venezuela with 30 million people, right? This is a massive country with a huge terrain and a relentless leader. And he had just actually quashed this rebellion brutally, but he had quashed it. It had shown that he had strength. And so they thought they were going to go in there and topple Iran like it was Venezuela. And it's not what happened. And if anything, he may end up leaving his presidency with Iran exactly where it is right now. And Che, I mentioned all of the other assorted domestic problems, including this sort of lack of transparency on a lot of things going on with Donald Trump.

7:37This is by no means a normal second term. There's no honesty or transparency about what he's doing, about his self-enrichment, about his medical situation, which is something, of course, he and many people hammered Joe Biden on, understandably so. One example, and again, I'm not a doctor, but it's something where they haven't actually been very transparent. So we We only have what dribbles out is the independent reporting on what was seen at NATO, which is Trump's sort of bruised hand in this sort of cover, whether it's what looks like possibly makeup or some other sort of thin coverage. And they report the recurring discoloration, which the White House says is a symptom from handshaking, although it's on the back of the hand, has become the subject of persistent scrutiny.

8:23And again, Che, with all due responsibility that we might exercise, which Donald Trump doesn't provide in his role, per se, does it raise larger questions about whether they're being honest about everything from his finances to his health as a public official? It's a public issue. It certainly is. And, you know, I think that what Trump has introduced into the body politic, which we are now seeing played out with this Mitch McConnell story as well, where we have a lack of transparency about his health and what is going on with his hospitalization, is we are going backwards as a society in terms of public officials being transparent about their health.

9:01And I'll be honest, as a Democrat, you know, Dianne Feinstein, that was a situation where there was a complete lack of transparency about her health. She was a sitting senator. She had signed away power of attorney to her daughter. And yet she was still responsible for taking votes in the Senate. That was not a particularly transparent situation. But this lack of transparency about health has really taken hold and something that Donald Trump really had introduced into the political system, really, I think, for ill. And Tara, we also want to— And also Mitch McConnell. Well, let me get you one question and take you on both.

9:40So hit me on McConnell. But I also wanted you to weigh in on what you're seeing on the Epstein issue. I mentioned some of that brewing. So give us give us your thoughts on both. Yeah, I was just going to say, I mean, in the same vein as Dianne Feinstein, Mitch McConnell has been missing since June 9th with no updates from his office. We don't know what's happened. It's been June 14th. It's been 25 days. and there are a number of major bills that are about to come before the Senate, like the housing bill that passed bipartisanly in the House. And where is he right now? We know there's a deadline for a special election coming up in August.

10:16I think there are a lot of questions about this and why so many of these leaders decide they want to stay into these roles until the end of their lives instead of passing the baton on. I mean, clearly there needs to be some sort of term limits. Now, as for the Epstein story, I'm so glad to hear from members of Congress like Melanie Sandsbury and House over ranking member Congressman Garcia that they see the Epstein story as the Watergate of our time because it is. And they're taking it seriously. And Garcia said he will bring back the people who have already testified because they didn't actually testify.

10:54They were just interviewed. They weren't under oath. And he said he'll bring them back. So that's encouraging. But they're moving at a really, really slow pace. And I don't think they can only bring back Bondi, Pam Bondi and Kash Patel. I think they need to bring back, you know, Bill Gates, Leslie Groff, Sarah Kellen, Bill Clinton. They need to bring everyone back and redo this whole thing again. But I'm encouraged to hear that it's not over yet. And we'll see what happens when Leon Black comes. I mean, he's been subpoenaed. Next week, he'll be back in Congress. And maybe this time it'll be under oath.

11:28I'm hopeful. And Jay, politically, how do you view that with what the Democrats are planning? Because people remember once there was the so-called blue wave in 18 and the Democrats came in, it really shifted the whole tenor of Trump's first term. I mean, this was someone who had his, you know, surprise win and pushed the envelope as he has certainly this term. But after those midterms, you saw the investigations ramp up, you saw the impeachment, and then ultimately you had the onboarding of what was a decisive loss for Trump, which, as I mentioned, a judge just rejected his efforts to relitigate aspects of that six years later.

12:04Do you see that echo or do you think Democrats have to be more kind of cautious about assuming that they can repeat those plays on the investigative front? No, I think that they can completely repeat that. And they can if they can get this get hold of the Senate, which is something that they did not have in 2019, 2020. And I think that's a really big difference. I think when you have only the House doing this, you know, it's very limited what Democrats can really do in terms of that oversight capacity. But when you have two chambers in play, able to conduct these investigations, able to push that message, that will really, I think, bring an end.

12:46You know, I'm going to say rather optimistically to what we would call the Trump era in American politics. And 2028 would then be the beginning of a kind of a new era in American politics. Now, whether that's Democrat or Republican, way too soon to tell. But I do think if we can win the Senate, I think the nature, our ability to change the narrative, the momentum and shift the vibe of the country is enormous. Well, and Jay, as you know, no one has ever counted out Donald Trump too early. No one's ever made that mistake in American life, media, politics. I jest a tiny bit. Thanks to both of our guests on a bunch of issues.

13:21I appreciate you guys. Coming up, we turn to a very serious story. That father shot dead by ICE. You think about when ICE kills people in situations that have often been documented as avoidable deaths, possible crimes. Renee Good, Minnesota, we are back in that situation, according to many, and we have that update for you. Also, the focus on what Chaywis is talking about, whether Democrats can take a lead in the Senate, including in ruby red Texas. How did it get so close there? Why are Democrats so excited about that? We have a special guest from that state. So we're going to get the on the ground details tonight.

13:54A lot of people are talking about that. We think you'll be more informed and smarter. about what Democrats see as good news there if you stick with us for that segment. And by the end of the hour, MAGA tears, MAGA complaints, but ultimately MAGA wrong. Bad Bunny's big hit Super Bowl performance that was embraced by so many people in this country now breaking records for Emmy nominations. We have that interesting story by the end of the hour and I'm back with you in 90 seconds. is it possible for ai to work in the enterprise the short answer is yes the long answer is oh yes users can pick the ai providers they prefer and you can decide which data is off limits monitor all ai activity and control every detail this is enterprise ai from ireland AI at its best by keeping out the worst.

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15:58No one knows what will actually happen in the future midterms because it depends on you and the voters and what people do. But we are getting indicators that are pretty striking. Texas, which is a ruby red, very pro-Trump state, is closer than it's ever been in the modern era for Democrats to take back, which means even if they don't ultimately win this Texas race, there is a lot of indicators there about how rough the Republicans are doing. The Democratic push to flip the Senate basically boils down to these six states. You see Texas at the bottom. In Maine, Dems are looking for a new candidate to replace the scandal-plagued Graham Plattner, but some Democrats say this actually is a blessing to get it figured out in advance of the deadlines and they can put someone stronger in.

16:44So there's been a lot of attention, as you've probably noticed, on that state this week. But we're turning to Texas, where Democrat James Tallarico is going up against what many in the party, in the GOP, see as a big Trump mistake, ousting a relatively established incumbent senator who's won Senate races there before and putting in this Trumpy Republican Attorney General candidate, Ken Paxton. That has tightened what was already a tightening race. Look at this. Today, according to the reputable New York Times poll, they are tied within the margin of error, which means, if you believe that poll, it's anyone's race.

17:21A lot closer than we usually see between the parties there. Both campaigns also had to put out their fundraising numbers, and look at that. The excitement for the Democrat dwarfing Paxton's struggle, having been in a kind kind of costly and divided Republican civil war. He's got Trump's backing, but he doesn't have Trump's money yet. Paxton comes into this race with many scandals, and those have become attack ads from Republicans even during that civil war primary I mentioned. Crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife. She's divorcing him on biblical grounds. So now Paxton's wrecking another home, sleeping around with a married mother of seven.

18:02Why does Ken Paxton go easy on child predators? A Waco attorney, Adam Hoffman, sexually abused a child for three years, and Paxton gutted the case, offering him just a slap on the wrist. Those are the ads that Texas Republicans and other voters have already been hearing about. And, if they have a long memory, Paxton was previously impeached by Republicans for alleged corruption. We should note he was acquitted by the Texas Senate. But for all the narratives we hear about everything being super partisan, this is a reminder that at least at the state level, there were some Republicans trying to hold this other Republican accountable for alleged corruption.

18:41He was also criminally indicted for fraud, charges that were later dismissed. Again, he is legally presumed innocent and was not convicted in those cases. But the question of whether you think he should get a promotion to write new laws and be a powerful person is a very different standard than him escaping criminal conviction. Paxton has a new controversy this week. He may have broken an election law that he had promised to enforce using this address where apparently, allegedly, he did not live while repeatedly voting. For his part, Paxton says he did follow the relevant law. Tallarico has been hammering Paxton on this.

19:17The strategy has focused on the other side of questioning the Democrats' masculinity, a kind of attack the Wall Street Journal notes that we've heard before. Whether it works in a down economy with this kind of alternative is an open question. Now, Democrats have long talked about flipping Texas and never done it. But the story we're telling you tonight is not just about whether or not they get over the line. It is a story about Donald Trump dragging down the Republican Party, interfering in a way that put in a less viable candidate. That's the Trump effect. And if you are spending money and energy to defend a red seat you're supposed to win in Texas, how much worse is it for Republicans on defense in the rest of the country?

20:02We have two special guests on this, including a reporter in Texas when we come back.

20:13They claim the AG used secret email accounts, burner phones, and a fake Uber account to see his mistress. Paxton is a repugnant character. He's always been on the edge of sort of criminal activity. Three felony fraud charges which have lingered for nine long years. And in between it all, the state's top attorney had a mugshot. There are calls for Ken Paxton to step down. James Tallarico is a hypocrite when it comes to fighting for families. Tallarico wants to teach trans ideology in schools and let boys compete in girls sports. Tallarico says it's immoral to use the oil and gas that employs millions of Texans.

20:50That's what Texas voters are already seeing in the clash between these two folks who want to be the senator from Texas. A much closer race than usual. Democrats feeling optimistic. As promised, we're bringing in Jeremy Wallace, political reporter for the Houston Chronicle, who's been closely watching all of this and Obama campaign vet Che Comanduri. Jeremy, is it closer than usual? And what are you seeing on the ground that we might not notice nationally? Yeah, it's closer than usual on a couple of fronts here. Look, we've had some close polling before with Beto O 'Rourke when he ran in 2018 and even Colin Allred in 2024.

21:26There were close poll numbers. But when you dig into the poll numbers, both in that New York Times poll and a University of Texas poll that has also come out recently. You see the reason this is so competitive. Ken Paxson is just losing independence like crazy. I've never seen numbers this low with independence. He's at 12 percent with independence. Understand that even Ted Cruz in his worst moments was never under 20 percent. Ken Paxson has a two front war he has to deal with. One, he's trying to figure out how do you bring back those Republicans who did not vote for him and voted for John Cornyn and have always had a problem with him, right?

22:05You heard it in those clips before. He has a lot of Republican repair work to do. So he has one front there. And then he has to fight this other front war with independents who clearly don't like what they've seen from him. And they like Tallarico. Tallarico is hovering around 40 % with independents, which is better than Beto O 'Rourke or Colin Allred were at the same point back in their campaigns when we were going into the heat of summer, going into the midterm cycles. You're deep in the polling and what they call the crosstabs, and I know that gets Che excited because he's a huge campaign nerd, and they love that kind of stuff, you know?

22:42It's like candy to them. Jeremy, before I bring Che in, you can see how excited he looks. I mean, we know him. He's excited. Jeremy, before I bring him in, you mentioned that rough number with independents. Is that something that Paxton, you think, can still change because he's now in a different light? Or given so much voltage and controversy around his history, is it baked in? Yeah, it's partly baked in and partly because of President Trump, right? You know, with this war going on and these gas prices starting to creep up again, it's like that was the worst and the last thing that Ken Paxton needed.

23:18Like he needed that trend line to keep going so maybe people wouldn't be upset about that. he's now got to figure out how do I get, you know, Republicans excited about me. Remember, there's not much else on the ballot here in Texas that's going to be driving the electorate there. You know, the governor has his race, you know, and he's going to be doing his work. But he's in a different situation than Ken Paxton. Paxton's on his own. He needs to get out there and start, you know, trying to define who he is and try to present a better message. But here the thing is, he has no money. Like you pointed in the fundraising.

23:49I've never, you're going to understand, that$70 million that James Tallarica has raised so far is historic from a Texas perspective. That is twice the amount of money that Colin Allred or Beto O 'Rourke had at the same point in July going into the election cycle. Twice as much. He's going to have much more money to make the case of who he is while Ken Paxson's still struggling to raise the money to even counter him. That's why you see right now the airways are almost all James Tallarico here in Texas right now. He's run like probably 2 ,000 ads, you know, just in the last month. And there's nothing on the air from Ken Paxton.

24:29It's like you can see it's a lopsided advantage right now for Tallarico to make the case of who he is before the Republicans or Ken Paxton do it, which was always the downfall of both Colin Allred and Beto O 'Rourke. They let their opponents, Ted Cruz in both cases, define them before they could get out the chute. But here you have James Tallarico dropping three million dollars just in June to start making that identification with those independent voters before Ken Paxson can even wake up or get back in the back in the states from his vacation overseas. Jay? Yeah, I think we talked in the last segment about there being the end of the Trump era with us winning the Senate, with Democrats winning the Senate, with a national vibe shift, a national paradigm shift.

25:16If that occurred, nothing would signify that more than a James Tallarico victory in the Texas Senate. James Tallarico is the complete opposite of Donald Trump and Ken Paxton. He's young. He is vibrant. He is somebody who speaks about his religious faith, speaks about his personal piety and his personal religious journey. That is extremely, I got to think, very compelling and very different than anything we've ever heard about from Democrats in recent years. I mean, Democrats have been seen as largely very secular. And I think we should also remember that both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama talked openly about their faith.