U.S. Rocked as Trump Stokes High Prices and Tough Choices Even as Stocks Rebound

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0:59It is Friday. We got a lot. We got important stuff by the end of the hour. I think we have some interesting, fun stuff in a way. But we begin with the Trump economy in turmoil for most people, for regular people, for people who go to real jobs and drive around and deal with life. The president can't contain this crisis. At times, he doesn't even seem to acknowledge the crisis he created with the war or care about the fallout. I could tell you tonight, as we report, officials in the U.S. and Iran are confirming that the Strait of Hormuz is back fully open, at least as of this hour. That's a contentious issue and one, of course, that became a problem only when the U.S.

1:36started this war under Trump. Many view it as a potential step towards de-escalation and ultimately a kind of peace. But, and I will tell you, when there's good news, there's good news. I'm not trying to rain on that parade, but the way it's come out from the Trump side and this administration has at least involved some confusion. The president is saying that the U.S. blockade is still in place. So you have dueling headlines and claims, but you also have, as has happened so many times in this seven to eight week war, we have reality on the ground. The strait was shut for weeks and that caused serious harm to the global economy.

2:11me. It is not the kind of thing, as we have reported and experts have really emphasized across many hours of our reporting, you don't just flip it back on. Everything goes back to the way it was. Everyday Americans already can feel this, whether they follow foreign policy closely or not. We know it with the gas. We know it with the high prices. And we've seen other warnings about a cascade of inflation to come, even if we get through this energy crisis right now. We're already seeing the pinch with Americans who were trying to get by before this war and And this energy crisis pushed them over.

2:42People turning to local food banks, scenes reminiscent of the COVID era, where people who worked hard to get by suddenly were faced with an external event that made them more food insecure, having a tighter budget. Not because of anything they did wrong, but because of external events. In this case, a man-made, Trump-made war. Some forced to choose, they say, between food or the gas that gets them to work. You have to decide whether you put gas or you buy your food. So that's my point. Like, either I put gas this week or I buy a week's worth of food, you know? Everything is expensive. It's just more expensive gas.

3:23Like, the necessities have gotten more expensive. Like, things we shouldn't have to pay. Five dollars, six dollars a gallon of gas. Like, it's absurd. That's the reality people are living through. Trump, for his part, has said gas isn't very high price to begin with right now. How much longer will Americans continue to see these high gas prices? Well, they're not very high. If you look at what they were supposed to be in order to get rid of a nuclear weapon, with the danger that entails. So the gas prices have come down very much over the last three, four days. This is one of those times where the president's allies, many Republicans, don't think he's helping his cause.

4:05Americans are paying over a dollar above the average price per gallon than, again, just about two months ago with the start of the war. And everyone knows the war caused this. Experts say the damage is done. It's now baked in. A top economist says prices for some goods might stay high for a while or not even ever go back to the time before Trump's war. And that's a kind of complicated set of economics there. But the bottom line is, like I said, it's not a switch. Trump claims things are going very well. The facts are hard for the Republicans to tackle as they head towards the midterms. Trump spent the week on a series of self-inflicted errors and feuds on the home front, while externally the reality in the strait and whether they get through ceasefire and towards a long-term resolution of this war is, of course, the big question in reality.

4:59And there are signs that some in the markets and some in the international community think that is happening. So that would be, again, a good thing, but it doesn't mean we get overnight relief. Trump is struggling with the coalition that he did put together in 24. And that appears to be because of what I'm telling you about. The high prices, the failure to deliver on his issues, a sense that he is, if not distracted, outright looking at the wrong things and the wrong issues, starting forever wars, struggling with the Epstein issue that dogged him for many months. That's a part of the building problems on the right and a view that basically he doesn't deliver, doesn't get it done.

5:37Here was the MAGA, once MAGA ally, now a little more independent sounding Joe Rogan. So what do you what do you think of what's going on in Iran? It's terrifying. It's like, what the are we doing? How is this still going on? Most people that voted for Trump or wanted Trump to be in office. one of the things that was attractive was this no more wars. Sure, of course. And now we're in one of the craziest ones. One of the craziest. Let's get into it on this Friday with Che Comandourian, Obama campaign veteran and political scientist Christina Greer. Che, what you see there is people who are inclined to the Trump perspective.

6:20Ty goes to Trump, give him the benefit of the doubt. And their view of the war dragging on this long now is that it's, quote, crazy. Yeah, I think that they see it clearly. This whole thing is crazy. Let's be honest. Trump has completely screwed everything up. He was arrogant. He showed terrible judgment. He thought this would be, as he always says, so easy that he would be able to go into this country of 90 million people, try to topple a regime, install, as he did in Venezuela, a dictator of his choice. maybe perhaps get the Iranian people to rise up and change the regime themselves. However, when you go in there and you drop bombs and you kill people, including in some cases, schoolchildren, you know, people don't blame their leaders.

7:13They blame you. America is the one that started this. They are the ones who are getting the blame by the Iranian people. And the democracy movement that existed in Iran before has got to be much weaker now that we have shown what democracies do and how badly they can perhaps perhaps behave. Professor Greer, political science, you look to various metrics, right? Political science is not actually just politics, which all of us can debate. And I was looking at the metric today as we closed the week. people are hurting. We led with that because we think that's news that this war is hurting people.

7:50And we heard the voices of some Americans struggling through this. Wall Street and the billionaire class, they're doing great. And they believe the markets think closing the week that the war is ending. And I'll show the chart because they're trading on that. If you look at just the U.S. market, that spike, which really comes off the fall that you see in April from the Trump war, It did obviously spike after the war. And today you see these all time highs. They think the war is ending. What do you think of that data point and this great gulf between them profiting off that expectation right now while most people are paying higher gas prices?

8:32Well, I mean, Ari, there's sort of two different actions. One is the economy and one is the real pocketbook issues of millions upon millions of Americans. And so Wall Street is rallying because, you know, the president said he'd feel it in his bones. And it seems as though he's feeling it in his bones, allegedly. And so we see that the markets tend to rally because of that. And we know that, you know, the billionaire class and the millionaire class always makes money off of war. However, citizens go to the polls based on pocketbook issues. Can I afford gas? Is my rent going up? Can I afford to keep my home?

9:06The list goes on. Do I have a job? And so we're dealing with a president who consistently is erratic and showing signs of cognitive decline, sure. But, you know, he's in many ways a political arsonist in the sense that he's always been able to start a fire and then put out the fire and then look at the American people and say, see, I helped you out. You know, I created these jobs. Never mind saying that he's the one, you know, who caused the job loss in the first place. He can tell HBCUs. I funded HBCUs, even though he defunded them in the first place. So we've seen this time and time again. The war on Iran is very different because there's been no justification.

9:41And many Americans said, you promised that, especially his supporters, you promised that we would be first. You promised that we would not have extra wars. We would not spend money overseas. We would not actually do this anti-small-democratic warmongering that, you know, America is now known for for decades upon decades. And he swore that that was not going to happen. Everything was going to be America first. And it has been the quintessential antithesis of that since he has come into office and let, you know, Elon Musk and Doge sort of take over from the very beginning days, firing hundreds of thousands of Americans, 350 ,000 black women to be specific.

10:18And the list has gone downhill from there. And so when he says, it doesn't matter if your house prices go up, that should be a good thing, right? I don't think that inflation is going up. I don't think that gas prices are going up. That's just, you know, Joe Biden trying to, you know, sully my name. Americans feel it at the gas prices, at the gas tank. They can see it. They see it at the grocery store with every single item that is higher because of his tariffs for no reason. And so I think we're finally, finally starting to see cracks in the foundation with his diehard supporters. But I don't know how long that'll last.

10:54I think, you know, I'm of the mind where it's like none of the morality issues ever moved them. So I don't know if the real pocketbook issues will, the way political science theorists have always said that that would be a main cause for dissatisfaction. Yeah, but and it's hard to spin the reality. And Che, this is very Biden-esque. we heard both President Biden and some of his aides during the peak of that inflation try to tell people, oh, our economy is the envy of the world. Yeah, well, the prices weren't. And it's really striking to watch this enfeebled, erratic version of Donald Trump go full Biden.

11:34And I don't mean early Biden or middle Biden. I mean, what was late stage inflation Biden. And so you have that problem, and then you have all of these religious squabbles that no political expert would tell any party, either party, attack the Pope, say you're Jesus, misquote the Bible out of Pulp Fiction, and you are our resident movie buff. I want to show some of that from Hegseth and get your response on the other side. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to capture and destroy my brother.

12:21And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee. And you will know my call sign is Sandy One. when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

12:37Yeah, so what he was doing there by using the fake Bible quote from Pulp Fiction, which is actually from a Sonny Chiba martial arts film from the early 70s that Tarantino saw and liked, is that he was engaging in macho posturing. But I would argue that Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump did not pay attention to Pulp Fiction enough. because if you watch the movie, at the end of the movie, Samuel L. Jackson re-quotes that verse and then says, you know, I said this because it sounded like a cold thing to say before I kill someone. It made me look tough. It made me feel tough. It was macho posturing of the kind that we see Hex and Trump do.

13:21But then Samuel L. Jackson says, maybe this means that I am the tyranny of evil men and I should try real hard to be the shepherd. And so he chooses at the end of that movie nonviolence. He lets Tim Roth and Amanda Plummer walk out of that diner. And that is something, a lesson that Hexeth and Trump could learn. Bars. Professor Greer, your thoughts there on that? It is what we hear about. Sometimes life imitates art in ways that are inspiring. It might raise our sense of consciousness or how we define love if you read enough poetry. And here, it's like a sad joke if there weren't lives on the line.

14:06This man, Secretary Hegseth, is trying to run a war while misquoting the Bible and, Che argues, missing the lesson about growth and fake macho masculinity in that very film. Absolutely. I mean, Ari, it's like we're being governed by ghouls and fools simultaneously. But what's really important is that Pete Hex, Seth, and Donald Trump don't have the real respect for the millions upon millions of service members that they're putting in harm's way and the family members that have that sacrifice on their shoulders when we actually send people into these missions that aren't well thought out or well planned.

14:40And we have no allies who are supporting us. We can look at our European allies who are just like, you all got yourselves into this. There is really, there was no antagonistic moment that justifies it. You and Bibi Netanyahu woke up one day and decided that you're going to do this, and so you're on your own. And I think that what really worries me is that Pete Hegseth has this new faux Christianity that he's trying to wrap this endeavor in, where there is no justification for this war. The pope, who is in charge of 1.2 billion souls, has said so himself. So engaging in a war, not just in Iran, but trying to sway public opinion where it seems as though not just normal folks who have, you know, have common sense aren't buying it, but now their own supporters are starting to say, this actually might finally, parentheses, be a bridge too far when you're insulting the Pope, when you're trying to couch war in Christian language to sort of justify killing it.

15:41As, you know, Che said, you know, innocent schoolchildren, civilians that, you know, you all know that are being targeted in ways that are just not justifiable in any in any court of law or international court of law. Yeah, we're seeing that cascading effect where people who would defend Trump when he attacked other groups, Muslims, disrespected women. Then they say, oh, well, my Lord has now been disrespected. I'm upset. And Che, that really leads to a fork in the road for the No Kings resistance. Do you say, all right, let's you find a way to work with those people? Or do you do what I think at least the caricature of some super lefties online sometimes does, which is say, you're late, not good enough.

16:25Now you agree with me, it's too late. And I want to probe that option, that question to both of you, because that's really what the midterm campaign is going to be waged on. So you're both with me on this Friday. We're back together in 90 seconds.

17:03Catholics has dropped below 50 percent for the first time ever. That's what we're hearing from people, including people of faith. Che, I just posed the question to you. What should the democracy movement do with these folks who now have more beef with Trump? Yeah, I don't want to be too critical of Democrats, but they could actually learn a lot from the Pope, because the Pope simply gave a morally clear, unambiguous answer about the war. The war is wrong. It is a moral wrong. It is a atrocity. We must choose peace. It is in clear, simple, moral terms. You know, there was no discussion about, you know, does the president have a plan for Iran?

17:55How does this deal with our oil supply chains and the relationship with Israel and the relationship with the Gulf states and the other places in the Middle East? There was no technical speak. It was clear, unambiguous moral language of the kind that has been lacking, I think, on the part of a lot of Democrats. I think they should take a lesson from the pope. And I think that is the real way for the democracy movement to move forward. Professor?

18:55clear about that, we can then sort of work on this particular issue and then move forward. But I have found in studying the civil rights movement, once people start working together on one particular issue, you then find that there's a second issue that you might be able to find some sort of common ground, and maybe even a third issue that you can find some common ground. And so there can be a snowballing of commonality. And I do think that with this particular president who has made his money and his bones on being divisive and making sure Americans don't actually see themselves and their histories in one another, I don't see why we can't actually start that building process.

19:33You know, I'm a treasurer, a trustee of the Tenement Museum, and that's the whole point, for us to see our immigration stories and our migration stories as points of conversation so we can actually make this country better, which is clearly something that the president does not want us to do. Yeah, and anyone who's got a memory in politics, you can look back to when the Cheneys represented all that was wrong with the worldview of liberals. And then you can look about how they stood up against the coup in Jan 6th and where Liz Cheney fits in. I mean, she'd be as welcome, Che, at most no Kings rally as any as any and many more than many elected Democrats.

20:14And yet when it becomes a new thing, whether it's the Rogan or the Pope, the Pope discourse, sometimes we see that fracturing again. So it's just something interesting. Getting both of you on that as we end the week and think about where we overlap, maybe unity in this country is great. Che and Christina, thanks to both of you. Trump had a big loss on his ballroom obsession. We have that story and a special guest later tonight on the life or death choice facing the Supreme Court. This is a story that goes beyond the war and the Trump stuff, but is really important. We're going to hit that. Next, accountability for ICE as protests continue to work.

20:57The news cycles have changed a lot as Donald Trump's very tumultuous second term has unfolded. You know that. You're watching the news right now. There has been, though, a sustained protest movement And while No Kings and the Democracy Movement are about many things, the use and abuse of the deportation and immigration powers and ICE are a key theme because it goes to the abuse of power on the home front. And those protests have continued. Sometimes they're big news. We covered the weekend protests recently. Sometimes they're not on the national news, but they're having impacts on the news, even if we're not watching another giant group of people in the streets right now.

21:34And that leads us to this development of another top Trump ICE official out. Todd Lyons, who's actually running ICE, he's the acting director, is leaving DHS. And this comes at a tumultuous time. ICE's tactics are a big part of those protests and court pushback. We've reported how some judges have been frustrated and there's been times where it seems like they're getting away with it all. And yet the clearing out of the law enforcement leadership of the Trump administration is a big deal. and it is characterized this year. The AG out, the DHS chief out, now the ICE chief out. In Minnesota, we saw an ICE agent facing an assault charge for pointing a gun, menacing behavior, allegedly, at civilians in Minnesota there.

22:14The New York Times Magazine has in-depth reported, including a name you might recognize, co-written by journalist Emily Bazelon with the Times, that sheds light on Trump's chaotic immigration agenda and the dissent sometimes within the department. ICE and the people who've worked there over the years are not monolithic. One ICE veteran says that the LA mayhem is a problem. Anytime you engage the Border Patrol in interior enforcement, the wheels are going to fall off and a questionable means to try to get 3 ,000 ICE arrests daily, which is something that Miller at the White House has been touting.

22:51Under President Trump's leadership, we are looking to set a goal of a minimum of 3 ,000 arrests for ICE every day, and President Trump is going to keep pushing to get that number up higher each and every single day. That has been the publicized goal. But remember, Trump ran on saying they were going to go after the violent criminals. He sort of fed this narrative that there were too many undocumented violent criminals in the U.S., and why wouldn't you go after them and get rid of them? That really simplified something, because if you go back and look, even the Obama administration was criticized for how much they deported what at times were record-breaking numbers focusing on those violent criminals.

23:31Now, that's a common tactic in debate. You make it sound more lopsided and then say you're going to do a better job at the thing that a lot of people agree on, get rid of the violent criminals. Well, that brings us to, again, an ICE agenda that is faltering before our very eyes. The White House says, oh, most of the deportations are people with criminal records. But ICE's own data shows that's not the case. About 5 % of the recently detained ICE individuals are actually violent convicted convicts. Over 70 % had no criminal conviction at all. The pie chart tells the story. The 73 % is the core point there.

24:09That new reporting has a lot of other details. And to get into it, we welcome one of the authors, New York Times Magazine legal writer, Emily Bazelon. Hello. Hey, Ari. What did you find in your reporting with your colleagues and how does it perhaps correspond to a cleaning house of law enforcement under Trump in the last last two months here? Yeah, what I was reporting on with my colleagues was the view from inside the Department of Homeland Security. So what do ICE agents say about what's happening on the ground when they get deployed to Minneapolis? Questions like that. And over and over again, people talked about this pressure to make the arrest numbers that Stephen Miller has pushed onto the agency.

24:54And the pressure to do that has meant that most of the people getting arrested and rounded up don't have violent records. Just like you said, there just aren't enough people of the kind of, quote, worst of the worst that the government says they are going after. And so instead, you're seeing people who've been in the country for many years, who are working, who are raising kids. There's a kind of total non-priority. Really, anybody can get rounded up. And the government is making a new legal argument in court that all these people are subject to mandatory detention. So you see just a lot of pressure on the agency.

25:31And I think Todd Lyons' resignation is partly a kind of cry for mercy. You know, there were reports that this job was weighing on him enormously. He was never confirmed as the director. He was always just the acting person in charge. And look, I mean, I'm not in his head, but it may just have felt like too much. And, you know, from the point of view of a lot of other employees, like a misuse of the agency's resources. Well, there were reports as well that he was under tremendous stress and that was showing. These are hard jobs even when they're being run well. This abuse of temps, which is basically what they are, the administration has abused the temp role of acting prosecutors and in this case acting supervisory officials to get around what they're supposed to be, which is congressional oversight.

26:20And yet, as you point out, doesn't mean that that person feels empowered to do even the Trump agenda, let alone whether it's good policy. Reading from your reporting on the cutting corners, you have an agent who says, look, we don't like working with Border Patrol agents because they cut corners. They're reckless, unnecessarily aggressive. You saw the direct result of that in Minneapolis. The agents who shot Mr. Freddie were CBP. A little bit of blame shifting like we see in government, but also a reminder that not everyone is co-signing all of this. on the another report you notice that i should say you note that ice is quickly hiring people with little no experience training them on powerpoint giving them a badge and a gun and the suggestion here is that veterans of the agency tell you that's dangerous i mean it isn't the new york magazine saying bad idea it seems to be uh border experts saying bad idea yeah absolutely you know there are a couple things going on here.

27:16One is bringing the border patrol agents in to do enforcement inside the country. On the border, they tend to operate with fewer restrictions, and they're not trained to go into a city like Minneapolis, and certainly not to deal with protesters. So I think that has been a real problem. And then secondly, you have this issue of ICE just, you know, having all these internal challenges and these questions about how it's getting run, you know, from the inside, from the point of view of the employees themselves, not critics on the outside, including a former ICE attorney who's become a whistleblower.