🏝️ “10am Escape” — Airbnb’s cubicle tourism. Poppi’s Jetty bet. Sofa-nomics 101. +CEO Phone ####

0:28This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, November 12th. I'm Jack, and what have we got in today's T-Boy? For our first story, the couple behind Poppy Soda just launched their next big thing, Jetty Hydration. So Jack and I got the stats on second-time founder success. We call them sequel startups. For our second story, Airbnb just revealed when you browse Airbnb. It's when you're supposed to be working. It's 10 a.m. on Tuesday. That's a bad thing for your productivity, a worse thing for AI. And our third and final story, our Fed president called this week's inflation report disturbing.

0:56So to understand why, we're looking at one sofa made in North Carolina by a trendy Jewish couple. But yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. How's that for specific? Love the mix of stories, by the way, Jack. Love the mix. The cool new thing to do if you're a CEO, what is it, Nick? It's not creating a digital twin of yourself. It's not going on a silent treat. And it ain't that new Porsche 911. It's to give out your phone number to the public. Here's the news. Elf Beauty CEO Tarang Amin just dished out his very own personal digits. 510-327-3536. Give him a ring if you're not happy about your lip liner.

1:32I'm guessing he's a T-Mobile guy, by the way. Drop him a voicemail that vitamin C serum pump won't pump. Which it never does, by the way. Now, we actually interviewed Tarang, and we can confirm that's his number. We can, but it ain't just the Elf CEO. Burger King CEO also dropped his digits this year. 305-874-0520. And get this, he got 86 ,000 calls in one single month. We heard his wife almost kicked him off the family plan. Just want to say the guy who took my order went above and beyond a real Burger King. Leader of Cola? Do we have Leader of Cola? That's the voicemail I'd leave the Burger King CEO.

2:03But pause the pod, Yetis, because these publicity stunts with the phone numbers, they actually work. Because Burger King stock is up 11 % in the past year, while McDonald's is down. And Jack, Adidas' CEO, gave out his number to 60 ,000 employees three years ago. And Adidas stock is up 10 % in the last three years, while Nike's down 60 % over the same period. So besties, if you've got a favorite story from today's show, if you want to hear me cookie crisp in voicemail, or if you think we simply missed a profit puppy on the pod, simply give us a ring at 1-800-T-BOY-POD. That's 1-800-T-BOY-P-O-D.

2:37Text message raised may apply. Jack, let's hit our three 867-5309 stories.

2:47a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:07Start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

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3:48Monarch. In 2015, after my third banking bonus, I finally paid off my student debt. Then in 2019, after we sold our startup, I finally paid off my graduate student debt. Yeah, is everyone throwing random parties these days? Well, Jack threw a long overdue debt payoff party. Gotta love that party. Yeah, because for 10 years, I kept a manual Excel spreadsheet tracking my debt payoff progress. and it was very satisfying watching the bad numbers get smaller and the good numbers get bigger. You see, when you're paying down your debt, it helps to have a target date to plan your celebration around. Perfect timing because Monarch has a debt pay down simulator to help you visualize and track your progress.

4:24Monarch helps you break down the debt cycle so you can avoid the endless gloom. No Excel spreadsheets needed. I've ditched my spreadsheet, by the way, and moved all my accounts to Monarch, and it still helps me visualize all my money moves. Because ain't no party like I just paid off my mortgage party. Write your own money story with Monarch. And use code T-Boy at Monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just 50 bucks. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-B-O-Y. For our first story, the founders of Poppy disrupted Soda. Now they're targeting Gatorade with their second big venture, Jetty.

4:59Attention all first-time founders. Here's the second-time founders playbook. But besties, let's bring along some behind-the-scenes context. When we asked if we should do this story, what was the response, Jack? A critical mass of you commented refill on Spotify. So we're doing it. Poppy, we interviewed the co-founding couple husband and wife of Gut Soda at our Austin live show. Two Southern blondes plus one probiotic soda recipe equals... What does it equal, Jack? An almost$2 billion exit. Or as they say in venture capital, two blondes make a right. I think that's the math. Now, Poppy sold to Pepsi in 2025, but the co-founders non-compete was only for the soda category.

5:33So this week, after clearing it with the lawyers, they launched their next thing, Jetty. Hydration. Not about curing hangovers though, and not about replenishing sweat either. Like every day, every man, midday hydration, not a treat yourself, treat yourselves. Allison launched Poppy to help deal with her pregnancy sickness. Well, now she's launched Jetty to deal with her Ozempic-induced dehydration. So it's a sequel startup. These are second-time founders. So we already know the business plan. They're going to earn based on what they learned. Exhibit A, the first insight. The critical moment for Poppy was when they switched from a glass bottle to an aluminum can.

6:07That signaled it was a soda. So for the launch, Jetty put their drink in a plastic bottle to signal this is like Gatorade. The second learning? Well, the critical moment for Poppy was also when they added a little sugar. This thing's got to taste good, right? Poppy learned that five to six grams of sugar was enough to make it taste good, but not too much to feel unhealthy. Actually, funny. Allison told us on our show this was a huge fight between her and her co-founding husband, right, Jack? She wanted zero sugar. He said he got to have a little bit. But she admitted he was right. So Jetty's going to have six grams of sugar too.

6:35Less than Gatorade. Way less than Gatorade. But not zero sugar either. Now the last critical inflection point for Poppy was when they decided to choose a muse. They decided on an influencer North Star. And here's who she was. Kylie Jenner. Kylie. Here's what they did. Poppy sent Kylie Jenner free soda month after month after month after month despite no evidence she had any interest. But then out of the blue on one day, she posted on Instagram holding a poppy. Voila. And that apparently sealed the Pepsi acquisition deal. In fact, Allison revealed on our show that that's when Poppy decided to have an unlimited influencer free sample budget.

7:12There's no way that Gatorade, which is also owned by Pepsi, by the way, has an unlimited budget for sending free samples. But Poppy does. Well, we bet Jetty does too. They're earning based on what they learned. And Allison already said who their influencer North Star is for Jetty, Justin Bieber. Jay Biebs, so the Ellsworth are probably going to send Bieber an unlimited amount of free samples of Jetty. Because that one post that Biebs will eventually make will be worth the price of a jillion free Jettys. He'll learn to love himself, and then he'll learn to love Jetty, hopefully. So after the$2 billion Pepsi sale, the Ellsworths decided to invest their own money to launch Jetty, $2.5 million worth, but they'll probably tap venture capital soon.

7:50And Jack and I guarantee venture capitalists will have their checkbooks ready because of our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at the new Jetty? You can get an MBA or you can get an ABM. Yeah, an MBA is a business school degree, but an ABM stands for acquired business muscle. We'd say that second time founders have an ABM and the data would say it's better than an MBA. Yeah, because our favorite HBS study, ironically, found that first time startups had an 18 % success rate. If that first startup failed, the founder's second startup had a 20 % success rate. But if the first startup succeeded, then their second startup jumped to a 30 % success rate.

8:33So here's the abstract of that study, Ace. Second time founders are more likely to succeed, especially if their first venture was a success. And it's all amplified if you start a company in the same industry, like Peter Rahal with David Protein, or Mark Laurie with Logistics, or us in Media. That's why according to Kellogg Business School, the average age of the most successful founders isn't Zuckerberg or Evan Spiegel's 23. It's Mark Laurie's 45. 40-year-old founders are two times more successful than those in their 20s. Experience is the asset. Experience is a muscle you build. It's acquired business muscle.

9:06Not an MBA. That's an ABM. For our second story, Airbnb's CEO just snitched on you. You're perusing Airbnbs at your desk right now instead of working. That's bad news for your boss, but it's actually worse news for AI. Oh yeah, it is the theme of November. Tech is tanking. We're feeling it. NASDAQ was in a correction. It was down 10%, although it's bounced back the last couple of days. Except for one interesting company, and that company is Airbnb. Airbnb stocks up 40 % this year. It's up 7 % since last week's earnings, and its market cap is now$100 billion. We're putting up McMansion numbers over at Airbnb.

9:47Piscino Brian Chesky is so confident right now, he banned checkout chores. No more mandatory laundry. He is so confident right now that he has personally donated$100 million to San Francisco's Parks Department this week. The biggest gift since Freddy Spaghetti did the Harvest Fest in Pawnee. Is it just us or is even Brian Chesky's biceps hitting all-time highs right now? It's not just us. The dude definitely CrossFits. Airbnb's biz looking less Winnebago, looking more beachside condo. But the wildest detail from Airbnb's earnings was one line about what you're doing probably right now. Yetis, besties, we're talking about you.

10:21Let's listen to Brian's. Let's listen to 20 seconds from Brian during the earnings call last week. It's at the tip, Jack. Here's a fun fact. Most of our traffic happens during nine to five hours. These people are supposed to be working and they're not. We have evidence. People are actually secretly using Airbnb. My words, it sounds exciting that he's outing all these people, Jack. Yeah, you might need to step into a phone booth the next time you're booking a bachelorette. trip. Yeah, because Brian Chesky, Airbnb CEO, just snitched on you, Yetis. Carol from accounting isn't balancing the book. She's checking out ski chalets in Chile.

10:50Frank and finance ain't finishing TPS reports. He's checking the pool picks right now. Why is the Zoom call on mute right now? Why? Because you're sorting out 12 bedroom options in Cabo. We know our buddy Timmy definitely is, so we know what you're thinking, Yetis. What is going on here? As Brian suggested later in that call, people want to escape their jobs. They probably don't like crunching TPS reports. And Jack and I wouldn't be surprised if Zillow has the same data too. I mean, there's a reason Facebook was banned at our company computers when we were working in finance. You're doing the 10 a.m.

11:18Tuesday Zillow search. Now, people perusing Airbnb when they're supposed to be working, that's good news for Airbnb, but it's bad news for AI. What are you looking at? We're recording the show right now, man. Research. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies enjoying Airbnb in the middle of the workday? AI companies should know, not all who wander are lost. Yetis every AI business has launched some cute, cuddly, la boo-boo chatbot lately. Your own personal AI agent to save you time. We have no doubt that AI agents are good for business applications. But for personal lives, Jack, how about we kick it back to Brian Chesky again?

11:51So I don't think a lot of people want to offload all that to an agent. I think they want to offload the things they don't enjoy, not the things they do enjoy. The things they do enjoy, like shopping. Right. Zuckerberg says that Muse can find that cute top for you on its own. But hey, Zuck is part of the joy of owning that Q-top, the journey of actually finding it. Same with vacations. You actually enjoy the anticipation of a vacation just as much as the trip itself, because you planned it. Look at TJ Maxx. The appeal of the store, as we covered on the pod, is the treasure hunt. Which is why Brian went on to say, a very non-material number of bookings right now is happening with AI agents like Muse.

12:27Besties, people aren't outsourcing travel because they enjoy the discovery and browsing of travel. Maybe that'll change. But in the meantime, AI companies should realize that not all who wander online are lost. Poetic. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. You know what's a fun habit? Getting to hang with you guys every day on this show. It's what we do. Another fun habit? Listening to audiobooks about habits. Like Atomic Habits, the legendary piece about building habits that better your life, right? And the Atomic Habits audiobook is on Audible. We're excited to collab with Audible because it's how we find our road trip companion.

13:03The written word, spoken. So besties, you can create a habit of enjoying audiobooks while you multitask. Which I believe is chapter three of Atomic Habits. That's right, Jack. Wash pots and pans, awkwardly fold those fitted bedsheets, floss your teeth while you're winding down listening on Audible. If your hands are full while listening to Audible, then you're doing it right. So summer's not over, replace doom scrolling by listening to an audiobook that a human put all their thought and effort into. Audible, it's stories that speak to you. And new members can start listening with a 30-day free trial at audible.com slash tboy.

13:32That's a 30-day free trial at audible.com slash tboy. Take it from a couple guys with a lot of habits who have become your habit. This episode is brought to you by Rover. Yeti's quick clarification on vowels here. River is the name of Jack's dog. Rover is the name of our sponsor. River is an anxious dog. I don't know why, Nick, but she's always been nervous with strangers. Basically, besides sleeping in between my legs, a plushy dog bed is the one place where she is soothed, even though she rips that dog bed apart every single few months. Which is why Jack's the only person with a plushy dog bed subscription.

14:05He gets a new dog bed every three months. True. But Rover is the marketplace that connects pet caretakers to pet owners. And the first sitter we used on Rover was River Approved. She looked after Jack's dog when the family dropped to New York, and Jack had River bored at a sitter's home. Naturally, we brought her plush bed. The sitter sent us pictures during the trip, which brought us huge peace of mind while we were in Central Park. So besties, next time you can't bring your pet somewhere, use Rover. That is River approved. Exclusively for new users of Rover, use code BESTONEYET20 for a$20 discount off your first booking.

14:37Valid only on eligible bookings. Offer expires January 24th, 2027. Terms apply. That's BESTONEYET20 for$20 off your first booking. For our third and final story. Our Fed pres just called the latest inflation report borderline disturbing. If you want to understand this economy, we're looking at one sofa made in North Carolina. But yet is yesterday we told you about the sticky inflation situation. What are we looking at, Jack? Prices were 4 % higher in October from the year before. Well, Austin Goolsbee, a Yeti, had some choice words for that 4 % number. Borderline disturbing. We're talking the president of the Chicago Fed, who we interviewed on this show.

15:18He literally lost sleep last night because of this. He said, we've got a real inflation issue on our hands, and we're going to have to do something to deal with that. The end with that, it means the hard medicine, unfortunately, raising interest rates again. After this week's CPI report, there's a 95 % chance that the Fed raises rates in December. And the 30-year mortgage is already at 7.2%. All right, but Jack, pause the pod, pause the pod. You know, I herniated a disc in my back a few years ago. This is starting to feel some pain right now when you tell this story. I could use something a little more comfortable, if you know what I mean.

15:50That was quite a segue, Nick. I think you're saying we should pivot from the mortgage market to the sofa market. I like what you're thinking, Jack. Because the sofa market actually explains that inflation, it's not just an oil and gas problem. And to see that, we'll look at a company called Tav just profiled in the Wall Street Journal. Tav is a husband and wife run furniture company based in the USA, the Krinsky's. The Krinsky's, they grew up Orthodox Jewish. They didn't go to college and they named their new business Tav as in Mazel Tov. Their product was $900 sofa. It's an upgrade from Ikea.

16:19It's not as pricey as Crate and Barrel. It's a West Elm Slayer. And it's Costco approved. Basically, they sold love seats for people who love the combination of saving money and being cozy. Now, until 2018, the Krinsky's$900 sofa was made, which about all sofas are made, right, Jack? China. China. But with the first China tariffs, the Krinsky's moved their production to Vietnam. Okay, but then the second Trump administration slapped a 46 % tariff on Vietnam. So the Krinsky's did what the government wanted them to do. They bought a factory in High Point, North Carolina. Ah, High Point, North Carolina, once known as the furniture capital of the world.

16:55The Istanbul of Ottomans. Literally, but less than 10 months in that factory in North Kakalaki, it closed. Unless you're selling really expensive furniture, the economics just doesn't work here in America. You see, the Krinsky's used to sell their sofa for 900 bucks. But in the US, it cost them 1200 bucks just to make one. And American workers only could make two to three sofas per day in North Carolina. The same number of workers in Vietnam made 10 sofas per day. So it looks like made in the USA isn't a 10 to 20 % problem that can simply be equalized with some tariffs. The bigger issue is the labor or the lack of labor.

17:28And that's gonna take like 20 years of smart policy to fix. Well, now Tav sofas are made in Vietnam again, but the cost is$1 ,500 because of the tariffs and inflation. A 67 % price hike if you want to buy a top sofa. Besties, 20 months into the trade war, the goal of tariffs was bringing back manufacturing to America. But the result was simply raising prices. My sciatic is acting up again, Jack. So what's the takeaway for all our buddies over in this economy? The most valuable financial asset you didn't know you had is a sub 3 % mortgage. Full disclosure here, Jack. You want to give us a little financial flex over there, please?

18:04I have a 2.85 % 30-year mortgage on my house. I snagged it in 2021 right before things got bad. Whoa, look at that thing. I'm very lucky, but I have three kids now, so I'm thinking about a bigger house. It's been five plus years, but that means I'd have to give up my golden mortgage. Sebastien, here's what Jack did. He did some NPV analysis. Basically, what's the cost today of switching his$500 ,000 mortgage from 2.85 % to 7.2%. Well, it's$1 ,300 more per month in interest for 30 years, which discounted to today is$195 ,000. Besties any house Jack considers buying right now is whatever Zillow says the price is plus$195 ,000.

18:48The cost of a higher rate just wasted interest money. That's how you have to think of it. The price on Zillow plus$195 ,000 because of the higher interest rate. But we know you're thinking, what if you refi, get a lower interest rate in the future? You know, marry the home, but date the rate kind of a thing. Maybe rates will come down in the future. Real estate agents have been saying that for years, but they've only gone up since COVID. And the result of all of this yetis is rate squatting. People with low mortgages don't want to move because new interest rates are too expensive. And when we say expensive, we mean$195 ,000 expensive.

19:19So the most valuable financial asset you didn't even realize was an asset is a sub 3 % mortgage. Could be worth 200k. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for that new Friday? The founders of Poppy launched Jetty, which is competing in the crowded hydration space. They don't have an MBA. These second-time founders have an ABM, Acquired Business Muscle. For our second story, Airbnb said that very few people are booking travel using AI agents because people enjoy travel. Not all those who wander are lost. And our third and final story, inflation's getting worse and it's not just oil. The$1 ,500 not made in USA sofa shows that tariffs are still a problem too.

19:59And that's why the sub 3 % mortgage could be worth 200K. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, NVIDIA stock fell on another New York Times bombshell report about another Jensen Wong affair. The New York Times spoke to five people at NVIDIA who say that Jensen had a relationship with a VP who reports directly to him, which means HR violation. And Wall Street Journal reporting last night says that Jensen will be fired. Meanwhile, the White House is moving to crack down on chip exports to China, which is the very thing that Jensen had lobbied against.

20:34Leather jacket starting to look like a red flag. Second, Silicon Valley helicopter parents are They're suing schools if they dare to give their kids bad grades. Get this, in one case, the school said the kid used AI to write 76 % of an essay, so they gave him a D. But then the dad sued, showed evidence of some human written writing according to probably another AI, and got the grade settled to a B. The schools, they kind of need to do what tech does, make people accept the terms and conditions before using the product. And finally, Adam Neumann of WeWork fame got a Twitter account and targeted Elon with his first tweet.

21:08You see, first Elon tweeted about how Masa could have invested in Tesla 10 years ago, but invested in WeWork instead. Elon said that was dumb, Masa. So Adam Neumann jumped to his old investor's defense and said, maybe you just needed to work on your pitch deck, Elon. Adam Neumann has not tweeted before, but his very first tweet was a viral Elon clapback. Now time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Johnny A. from lovely upstate New York. What do we got, Jack? Jack, if you went apple picking this weekend and noticed fewer apples, it's not just you. Yeah, besties, the spring freeze, it actually had an impact on fall apple picking across New England and the whole Northeast.

21:46What did we see, Jack? 40 % fewer apples than usual this harvest. So like you may be seeing more apple farms pushing hay rides or like belated pumpkin pictures than usual. This is why. I actually read that some apple picking orchards imported apples It's probably from Vermont. We had tons of apples this season. Not a good sign if the apple you pick has a sticker already on it. No, has scotch tape attaching it to the tree. If there's a barcode on that apple, you may want to move on to the next one. Yetis, you look fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing at your phone number 802. Whoa. Don't dox me.

22:26Cinco, cinco, cinco, cinco, cinco, cinco, cinco. Messaging rates and data plans. Talk to your carrier before texting Jack. And remember to drop down and give us five stars and a review. Jack and I will see you tomorrow.

22:41And before we go, a happy birthday to the legendary Adam Brink, the crab crushing Baltimore native now in Brookline, just inside Boston. Happy birthday to Avery Zirko, a hardworking medical student over in Cleveland. And Celine Eskenazi down in Panama has got the best birthday yet. Happy birthday to Anthony Capuano in Burlington, Mass., home of the Coat Factory. And a shout out to Marcello from Veros, the trust and estate startup, and his buddies who run Zendo, who I just ran into, a bunch of Yetis. They're looking fantastic, building the next profit bubble. Congratulations to Nick Gallo, who just moved from Philadelphia to Vancouver, Washington.

23:15And Roberto Luo, the best roommate yet, is going on a three-month trip. See you soon, Roberto. And congratulations to Lenny DeWitt, who came to our live show in Seattle, for having the best fiancee yet. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Ball. Celebrate the wins.

23:32This is Jack, Nick on stock of Airbnb and Zillow. Yetis, this holiday season, don't miss your chance to turn just looking into just bought it. Make it easy for your customers to say yes on the spot. PayPal checkout is a trusted conversion engine fueled by 400 million active PayPal and Venmo accounts. And when you add pay later, you can turn holiday shoppers into regulars. 96 % of PayLater shoppers are repeat users. So if you give them PayLater flexibility now, it could help earn their loyalty all year long. PayPal is built for all business. Get started at paypal.com slash business. PayPal data, eight markets, March 2025 to February 2026.

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