‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Burns Bright Before Flaming Out. Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings and the Oscar Short Lists!

29:08Sam Worthington does good work in these movies. Stephen Lang does good work. But Varang, who is the leader of the Ash People tribe, who, you know, for sort of like, I guess classically domineering survivalist reasons, wants to be the only surviving Navi tribe. Yeah. Attacks all of its, I guess, genealogical competitors. And so they are at this kind of war. Well, didn't they get burned out of their home? and so now they need other homes? Yes. Right. But, you know, the way in which they pursue that is a little hazy. Prometheus type, the fire, we discovered the fire but then it ruined us and I was like, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here.

29:48Yes. And then, yeah, then they've just become... They're in pursuit of violent conflict. Yeah. And they're trying to take over as much of Pandora as they possibly can even though they're a relatively small tribe based on what we see. Nevertheless, they become the big bads of the movie or at least the first half of the movie in Varang. She's very sexy. I don't know what to say. She's a very alluring, hips-forward Navi. A little skinny. All the Navi. Well, they're all a little skinny. Where are the fat Navi? That's a really good question. They don't exist. And the body image in Avatar is not what one would want.

30:27That's interesting. I hadn't thought about that. It's not good. We're back to quote-unquote heroin chic. There aren't. But someone in Pandora who just like eats too many Cheez-Its, you know, who's just like. They don't have Cheez-Its because they're in touch with the, you know, natural world. And also Jim Cameron is a vegan. And so he's against processed foods. That's right. Yeah. That's right. Well, nevertheless, Varang, she's got it like that. And Korich notices. Yeah. And Korich, who is, you know, in pursuit of Spider and Jake Sully. And he wants to capture Jake, his mortal enemy, and bring his son home.

31:03he falls in with Varang and there's an incredible sequence in this movie oh this part's really good where she tempts him into a tent and he thinks he's in the power position and then she gets him to snort what I guess is Navi PCP yes and he begins hallucinating and then in his hallucination the film turns into this psychedelic seduction mm-hmm and it was very cool it's a great moment in the movie I thought it was very funny. Yeah. I was entertained. It's very amusing. And it is very much like James Cameron, you know, child of the 60s, letting his freak flag fly. You know, going back to his hippie days of experimenting.

31:45Is it documented that he was a hippie and on? I think he was a... He seems a little control freak to go on psychedelics. He was definitely like an erector set science guy for sure. Yeah. But I think he also was like a let his freak flag fly guy. You know, like this guy was married to Linda Hamilton and Catherine Bigelow. Like he knew what he was doing. Totally, but like this is not a man who to me seems like he's ready to let the spirits take over. Well, maybe not now. And it's like a take one to no one situation. Yeah, but he might want to plug into that tree now. It's more spiritual rather than is experimental with other.

32:17So you think he's like an ayahuasca type guy? Well, see, I felt like the varang coke was more like ayahuasca. Like that was what it was meant to induce. Whereas the tree is this like I'm connecting with a greater God, you know, something beyond me. And that's the polarity, I think, of the boomer. You know, the boomer is kind of stuck between, is it God or is it the devil? And these are the two representations. This film is incredibly deep as an exploration of some Jim Cameron. I was just shaking my head at boomers, you know? Like, it's just, it's not where I want to be. They won't let go. They really won't.

32:46They will not let go. It's just very boring. Yeah, that was a good scene. It's like, there are amusing parts of it, but I think we've made it, what, 75 minutes into the movie? Yeah, and that's the thing is that Varang is extremely hostile and intense. And she's a great villain. Yeah. You really hate her. You really, you know, despite my attraction to her, she's evil. And she's attacking the scene. Well, you don't hate her. She is like the classical villain that you're like turned on by. And you're like, no, maybe that's the person that I want to spend the most time with. Right. But then when she enters Korich's atmosphere, he kind of just like blots her out a lot.

33:25Yeah. And then she becomes a part of his story and she gets like less dialogue. She becomes less powerful. And the film really takes a big dip into the second act, I think. Once you get like roughly an hour, hour, 20 minutes into the movie, there is a lot of action and a lot of stuff that transpires that is interesting. You know, our guy Payakan, the whale does go on trial at a certain point. He gets railroaded by the whale jury. And, you know, it's like straight out of the hurricane. You know, it's like he was not there that night. Like he did. He's not guilty. you have to free Pyakon you should not be imprisoning him he is a whale who deserves to swim in the ocean freely and not be outcast by his own people and you know a lot of parallels there with how Loak feels inside of his own family you know and that's his spirit guide so then that's literalized yeah I liked the whale council okay that was funny I didn't understand then once again Pyakon is exiled and then there are other whales that he's talking to but like I didn't know he goes far away and I didn't know who else was talking to him it's a fair point we don't really because the Tolkuns don't really speak English it's a little hard to know like where they are and where they're going it's not I don't mind subtitles I'm not Chris Ryan it's just that it was not made clear who the other whales and then Aegisle has to go away to come back like I didn't understand what the point of the journey was?

34:57I think it's that. I think it's just that classical thing where a character needs to experience exile and isolation in order to come back even stronger and save the day, which is something that you see in a lot of Cameron movies. One of the reasons why I think the movie is struggling a bit is that this is actually, despite his long and historic career, something Cameron's never done before, he's never made a third movie in a series. and he definitely has not made three consecutive movies in a series before. He's made Aliens, which is magnificent, but he did not make Alien. The extension of a story, he seems to be like a little flummoxed with how to keep it going.

35:36And I think a lot of your criticisms are down to that. Right. Where it's sort of like, I built this world, okay, I got all this cool stuff in my world. But then even in terms of the Ash people, he just doesn't really fully explore that stuff. We don't really get their world for the last hour and a half of the movie. And I thought that there was going to be like a big conclusive fight on a volcano to end the movie and that's not what we it's another battle on the water in the third act it is true that this is a film titled Fire and Ash and there's very little fire and almost no ash where's all this ash?

36:08it's in the water no it's fucking it's up Corch's nose I guess so that's true got that booger ash I I did like a lot of the the submarine subterranean stuff in the movie especially the crazy attacking squids that play a big role in the third act. Yeah, those were you chuckled a lot when they showed up. That was just like maniac Cameron action stuff that I was loving. There are moments where I was delighted during this movie. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I can't disagree with a lot of what you're saying in terms of what doesn't really functionally work that well about it. But I also do like it as this crazy man's representation of like all of his interests at this stage of his life.

36:46I think there's something cool about that. And like also like just clearly as a father and somebody who spent spend way too much time at work. He's like, he's going through it with the way that Jake Sully had his relationship to Loak, to Spider, you know, to Kiri, to like who belongs in the clan and who doesn't, who's getting his time, who doesn't. Should you be more of an authoritarian leader and father? Should you be softer and warmer to your children? Like, this feels autobiographical. Does it not? I guess so. Okay. No, it does. But I was literally trying to be like, okay, so Jake, he tries to like ditch Spider somewhere.

37:21and then he tries to kill him I mean he he lines up to sacrifice him and then they say no of course he loves him it's his son yeah I I was just thinking more about how the the moms are entirely sidelined until the very end where spoiler alert Kate Winslet's character who's been pregnant for all of two films I'm not really sure like what in 27 years that's the gestation period on Pandora takes 27 years how long is a year on Pandora though oh uh there you go Mr. Science time is meaningless and yet it controls us anyway what does the quote remind me from one battle um I don't it's yeah time doesn't exist but it controls us anyway thank you uh so she has a classic you know I'm I'm dying but I gotta give life to this baby first because that's like like, what true mamas do moment.

38:22And then Natiri, who has been nowhere for the whole movie, which sucks, shows up and is like, okay, I will, you know, preside over this most, like, holy act of woman warriorhood, which is you pushing out a baby, which, like, true or whatever. And then Kate Winslet, out, which is disappointing. It is a you got this mama movie in a lot of ways. As much as it is a dad in crisis movie, it's also a you got this mama movie. Yeah. That's beautiful. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. Like an action blockbuster, the holidays move quick. But with Prime, fast free delivery means those last minute gifts arrive right when you need them.

39:02Last year, while watching Singing in the Rain with my son, I realized a pair of tap shoes would be a perfect Christmas gift, and I had them under the tree for him on Christmas Day. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. Last minute holiday magic? It's on Prime. Head to Amazon.com slash Prime to shop now. I half jokingly, but maybe quite seriously, tweeted the movie is a soft remake of John Ford's Drums Along the Mohawk. Okay. I don't know why that hit my mind, but it is true and there is a certain kind of a movie about invaders of a native land and one group wants to fight for their independence and then the loyalists want to retain the colonial pride in the crown.

39:46and in that movie on the New York frontier the loyalists conscript the Native American people on that land to fight alongside them against the revolutionaries. I think that's a pretty clever, smart idea for like a war movie inside of this modern time. Like I think it works and it makes sense. It's something that you see like in foreign conflicts all the time in 2025 too. So like that's an aspect of the movie that I thought was smart that I like the idea of Varang and her crew like joining the humans and being and there's a confrontation with Korich and Edie Falco's general character you know when when the fire people the ash people come back to the human base that is very amusing Edie Falco is in a lot of this movie yeah more than I expected she looks at some transparent screens and yells a lot right and she's also in one of the yes a power loader is that the power loader in this movie though or is that just in Way of Water and I'm remembering it I think so a lot of Jermaine Clement you know and he has a surprisingly heroic redemption arc in this movie and the way that he yeah and works to free imprison Na 'vi I think this movie is pretty cool I think I think that's fine it is a real your mileage may vary situation and it's clear that Big Jim is having a great time and you had a great time I think Van Latham and had a great time.

41:13He stood and clapped at the end of the film. So like if you're into three hours of just all out like machine gun battle sequences between made up people and sometimes a beautiful sea creature and sometimes some psychedelic experiences, then you'll have a great time. I don't think that this movie like the other two has that like transcending genre, like, you know, transcending, I'm going to the movies to have a good time thing that the first Avatar and the second, and even Way of Water, it's something you've never really seen before, which you have in this movie. And there is something like experiential where this is more like, oh, look, he did a funny thing and he decided to do this other funny thing.

42:10and so it's not transformative in the way the other two are. I can't disagree with you. It's only been three years since The Way of Water and there's not a lot that isn't particularly new here. So you have to really enjoy these movies, I think, to enjoy this movie. And that's cool if you do. Yeah, yeah. Do you think that there will be a fourth and fifth? Well, how much, just ballpark, how much money do you think this will make? I mean, I guess we know it's going to crack a billion internationally, worldwide, just because of how things work. But the last one made over two? 2.34 billion. Okay. I guess 1.8.

42:52I feel like it's going to be lower than that. You do? I do. Okay. Because of all of the things that you're citing. And I don't know if you'll get as many repeat viewings because it is very long. I don't remember what the Christmas competition was in 2022. I guess we could look that up. There are not This is the big fish for sure this weekend. But there are a lot of movies coming out in the next week or so. Marty Supreme, The Housemaid. I just saw Song Song Blue and I've added it to the calendar. I'll be interviewing the director because I really liked it. You know, there's a bunch of stuff coming out over the course of the next week or so that will be chipping into this at least domestically over that time.

43:31So I'm curious. I'm going to say 1.6. And then 1.6, would that be a failure? I don't really know. I'm not really sure how to think about it. I would be surprised if Cameron, who's 71, came back for four and five. Right. He's already taking on other things. He's been talking a lot about the ghost of Hiroshima. He co-directed a movie with Billie Eilish, which I've seen a lot of trailers for while getting my nails done. Nice. Did you watch that? Yeah. Okay, great. I mean, there's footage in the trailer of James Cameron and Billie Eilish interacting. like sure sign me up yeah why not uh but it would seem that he's interested in things outside of uh the navi right now i want to talk about whether or not this film is going to get nominated for best picture okay i think we should talk about the shortlist first we'll show because the shortlists you know do shed some light they do and and avatar fire nash did get shortlisted i believe in four categories so it's not as though it was not represented but you know we're recording this on a Wednesday.

44:31So yesterday, the shortlists were announced in 12 categories. This is the first year for the Best Casting Academy Award, which is really exciting. I think it might be worthwhile to spend 20 or 30 minutes in February breaking this down, really, this category and what makes sense about it. But just high level, Sinners and Wicked for Good both were shortlisted eight times. This is not necessarily

44:57a signpost that these movies are going to dominate, but it doesn't hurt to be shortlisted in all these categories. Frankenstein got six shortlistings. Also not really surprising. The surprising one was Surratt. Yeah. Surratt was shortlisted five times. Now, Surratt, which I think I saw in August. Have you seen it yet? No, not yet. Okay, so you haven't seen it yet. I mean, it sounds like we should talk about it. No, we're going to do it. I mean, it's number one on my list. It was a very quick qualifying run. Okay. And so, I hope they'll start making it more available. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it certainly seems like people in the Academy are watching it because it's shown up in a bunch of places here.

45:33A couple of other quick reflections before we get into the specific categories themselves. Jay Kelly not in casting or cinematography. It does feel like Jay Kelly is DOA right now. Agree. And now I'm nervous about Adam Sandler. Yeah, you were very confident about that on the Adam Sandler or Jay Kelly pod. And I just don't really think that it's going to happen. So you think it's Jacob Elordi and Paul Meskel? So it's for sure Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård. I think Meskel's in. And it would probably have to be Elordi in that spot. Okay, that's annoying. Anyway, I thought Jacob Elordi was great.

46:19I mean, Delroy Lindo, last minute? It's possible. Certainly possible. I think that we'll get into this when we get into Best Picture Power. Yeah. Interesting Sinners moment right now. Yes. Interesting Sinners moment. Okay. Couple of other things. Wake Up Dead Man and just score. So that's not a good sign for Wake Up Dead Man more broadly. Although it seems like people are really liking that movie, which is cool. Yeah. It's a likable movie. It is. Once again, Josh O 'Connor. He's a man. I would encourage people to listen to the Rian Johnson interview if they liked it. He's really, he's incredibly insightful.

46:51And if you liked it, I think he's really good at explaining why he made certain choices in the movie. so the arguably the biggest thing that's happening here is that it doesn't seem like Searchlight's gonna have a movie in Best Picture yeah so The Testament of Ann Lee got nothing and I don't know if people yeah which is you know which is a bummer but it is like a it's a I guess it's a polarizing movie we all quite liked it like I said I saw a tremendous number of Italian people walking out of it in Venice a friend of ours texted me this week and was just like hi I hated that. And it's just, and said, they just aren't my taste.

47:30I get that. Which I get. You mean Mona and Brady? Yeah, I get that. But like, the Brutalists had like eight nominations. I mean, it was so. Sure. Well, one's about men and the other is about women. So, it's not really surprising. Yeah, you're right about that. It's not the testament of Jim Lee. Yeah. It's the testament of Ann Lee. So, Ann Lee, God, I hope Amanda Seyfried is nominated. She is extraordinary in that movie. I do too. I don't think that movie is really competing for Best Picture. We can talk about it. Rental Family is also not recognized here. Is this thing on not recognized? So since 2010, every year except 2016, Searchlight has had a movie in Best Picture.

48:07And the only reason it didn't have a movie in 2016 is because they acquired Birth of a Nation and then Nate Parker was entrenched in that scandal and then that movie kind of got erased. And that was a movie that coming out of Sundance, people were like, well, this is clearly a Best Picture container. So you were looking at an unbroken run of 16 years of Academy Award. And prior to that, they missed in 2009. But prior to that, they had a bunch going way back. So, I mean, Searchlight is as significant an Oscar player over the last 30 years as SPC, as Miramax, as all of those companies. It's a big thing.

48:40Yeah, but I think, you know, you are seeing like a regime change. How many is Neon going to have this year? What, three, four? Yeah, it looks like three, maybe four. And mostly because they just go to festivals and buy up all the international films and are running the table with that. And them shifting into that international flair and all of these movies, even though Rental Family is a film that takes place in Japan and The Testament of Anne Lee has a kind of foreign component, these are American productions by and large. And that stuff is not as powerful. The Wake Up Dead Mans are not as powerful at the Academy Awards as they would have been 25 years ago.

49:17It's interesting. It's just notable. It doesn't mean that the studio is like DOA or anything. I think that what, I think specifically what Searchlight has done for American movies over the last 25 years is really good and I hope they get their mojo back with this sort of thing and we loved Anneli. I'm glad that they picked it up. Yeah. But it's a shame that it's not recognized here. Okay, let's go into a couple of the categories. Casting. Mm-hmm. I'll read the names really quickly for the listeners so they know. Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Surratt, Weapons, and Wicked for Good.

49:48Yeah. It's 10 films shortlisted for five spots. It's cool. Interesting mix. Weapons is a shock. I'm really happy about it. I wonder what that tells us about how strong Weapons is right now. Yeah, or I wonder what that tells us about how strong Amy Madigan is. Agreed. Yeah. Could be very strong. Which is exciting. It is exciting. She is hustling quite a bit. I think Mikey Madison presented a screening of Weapons recently, which is interesting. Surratt being here is even crazier to me. Okay. Surratt, but no, no, it was just an accident and no, no other choice. But Surratt in best casting? I don't, I guess Surratt is really on the brain.

50:31But that's what I'm saying. People like it. Yeah. Or it's sticking with them. I mean, you know, it was also a surprise at the Golden Globes. I think you're right. Like that's, it's, the big takeaways from this are J. Kelly out Surratt in. Maybe not in best picture, but like start paying attention. I know you haven't seen it, but when you see it, you're going to be like, How the fuck is this in? Well, listen, people contain... I liked it. I liked it with some issues, but it is not an Academy movie. I'm kind of shocked, but I think it tells us something about how this has all changed. Any other notables there?

51:03I feel like it's roughly seven to eight best picture contenders in here. I mean, the secret agent train confirmed for sure. Yeah, that's a very good sign for secret agent. We were on that last month. I think if Marty Supreme were not in casting, it would be like a real siren. I agree. We're in trouble here. So I'm glad to see it. Marty really only missed in sound. You would have liked to have seen it in sound for it to feel like really powerful. But yeah. Okay. Let's talk about international features. So I'll read the list. I think it's 15 titles. Okay. So the titles include from Argentina, Belen, from Brazil, the secret agent, from France, it was just an accident, from Germany, sound of falling, from India, homebound, from Iraq, the president's cake, from Japan, Kokuho, from Jordan, all that's left of you, from Norway, sentimental value, from Palestine, Palestine 36, from South Korea, no other choice from Spain, Surat, from Switzerland, late shift from Taiwan, left-handed girl and from Tunisia, the voice of Hendra Job.

51:56So I noted here that I've seen eight of these. Yeah. Let me count. There are a few more that I really would like to see. I'd like to see Kokuho. I'd like to see the president's cake. I'm interested in Palestine 36. I'm interested in late shift, but I do think that the eight that I've seen are going to be enough in terms of being, and I think even maybe seven would be enough. And there is a world now with the Surratt strength that it's five neon movies. Yeah. Which has been like solidifying for the last couple months. And it was funny, like in the summer, they just bought everything. At Cannes.

52:30Yeah. At Cannes, they bought absolutely everything. And we all made these jokes. And then nothing was released for a while. And it seemed kind of quiet. And like, oh, maybe, you know, maybe this is a year maybe everything will stay like an international feature and this will be a more an American year and it's it's funny that we now have we've been like we don't have an anatomy of a fall but like maybe now we have three I think you're right I think you're right and it's I've been thinking back on my like top 10 top 20 for this year and why it feels chalky and I think one of the reasons why it feels chalky is that Kleber Mendoza Filio like he never had a movie distributed by Neon before You know, like Jafar Panahi hasn't had a movie distributed at this, in this way.

53:20So like movies like that that usually show up on year endless are usually small international features. You know, maybe they get a Sony Pictures Classics or a Janice to release them and they get recognized and they get loved, but they don't get so widely seen. Yeah. These movies are getting really widely, Surat getting widely seen is crazy. And Neon is just absolutely going for it. Like no other choice in particular. they were hosting like a summer intern contest did you see they're doing like really gimmicky stuff they invited 500 CEOs to a screening it's really funny it's really good but they are they have like taken a page out of the Timothee Chalamet playbook and the A24 playbook and are like really like okay we're leaning into this and sort of making these movies that we didn't immediately think were pop pop through their marketing 100 % it's worked really well Obviously, we saw it with Enora last year.

54:13They know what they're doing. They're really good at this. And it's a different strategy for them this year than in years past where they have a lot of eggs and a lot of baskets. Whereas like A24 has Marty Supreme. That's their movie. Netflix has a lot of eggs and a lot of baskets. Sometimes it's better to have a bunch of movies. Sometimes it's better to just focus on one. We'll see what happens. Best documentary, not a ton to dig into. We'll talk more about this category when both of us have had a chance to catch up on some of these. I've seen the major films, The Perfect Neighbor, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cover Up, Apocalypse in the Tropics.

54:47I think My Undesirable Friends Part 1 is the best film on this list. Maybe they're with Cover Up and has won a couple of critics prizes already. If you can see it, we should talk about it. It is five hours long. It is an intense durational portrait of Russian journalists, dissident journalists. But it's a very good film. I don't know how many Academy members will get through it. Okay. Well, you know the documentary, Darians, that branch is a... They're punishing. They are, but then when everyone has to vote, what happens is the question. Right. Right. So they could nominate the film, but then everyone would have to vote on it.

55:27No Predators on this list. No Orwell 2 plus 2 equals 5, the Raoul Peck film. No Put Your Soul in Your Hand and Walk. I was surprised to see that missing. Yeah. if it were left to the people at large, I think The Perfect Neighbor is probably in position to win since it's been such a hit, but we shall see. I just want to touch on cinematography and music before we go. Right. So, I'll read the shortlisted films. Ballad of a Small Player, Begonia, Die My Love, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Surat, Song Song Blue, Sound of Falling, Train Dreams, Wicked for Good.

56:11You haven't dipped into your F1 theory on this episode. And it's like... Some signs. It's not not happening. The effects, sound, song, cinematography. Yeah. I do think this is weird. This is a weird list. This whole collection is odd. But yeah, but as you have noted, no other choice. It was just an accident. And The Secret Agent, like three almost guaranteed Best Picture nominees. And no other choice than The Secret Agent are gorgeously shot. And then did like did not make it in. And so you could say to that, okay, well, maybe the cinematographer branch is not really, you know, thinking internationally.

56:51But then you have Surratt and Sound of Falling that did make it. Very odd. Okay. Very odd. Yeah. And Song Song Blue, which is a good movie that I liked. I just said that. I don't want to rag on it. Yeah. But no other choice not nominated in Song Song Blue nominated? Very curious. I mean, Wicked for Good was shortlisted. So what are you going to do? Good point. Okay. Best original song. Only one K-pop demon hunters. What are we doing? And two Wicked for Good. What are we doing? What is this category? I don't know. What is this category? I don't know. This is bad. These people are out of control.

57:26Yes. Dua Lipa doesn't have an Oscar. And there's only one K-pop demon hunters. Save yourselves. You were handed this gift on a platter. You could have nominated four songs. It could have been a K-pop convention. This is, it's really stupid. These, it's stupid. I also don't even understand the rules themselves because Testament of Ann Lee is ineligible because they are based off hymns, but Wicked for Good is an original song. These are two new songs. Those are the, yeah. These songs were written for the movie. Okay, okay. They stink, but they were written for the movie. Right, right. Yeah, I mean, we'll get to a similar quagmire and score when we get there but you're right that there are a lot of inconsistencies with these kinds of rulings I'll be rooting for I Lied to You from Sinners and secondarily I'll be rooting for As Alive as You Need Me To Be by Nine Inch Nails which I listened to on the way to work today which is an absolute banger that's beautiful thanks I do love Golden Golden is like my third or fourth favorite song on that album I've heard that album probably more than any other album this year But that's the thing.

58:33But it's... What an opportunity, you know, to have, like, real songs that are part of the film... Yep. In the telecast. ...that are wildly popular. Amanda, you're 100 % right. And I just... This has been a bad category every year except for the one year that they gave an Oscar to Lady Gaga and Mark Ronson. You're right and you should say it. I do. Every year. And nothing happens. Let's dig into best score quickly. Okay. Here are the nominees. Avatar, Fire, or I should say the shortlisties. Avatar, Fire, and Ash, Begonia, Captain America, Brave New World, Diane Warren, Relentless, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Nuremberg, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Surat, Train Dreams, Tron Ares, Truth and Treason, Wake Up, Dead Man, and Knives Out Mystery, and Wicked.

59:25That's 20 films. I would like for you to perform the Captain America, Brave New World score for me right now. I don't know who composed it. I'll happily look it up. Okay. The composer of that score is Laura Cartman. I think Laura Cartman, what did she do? I think she's previously an Oscar nominee. I'm going to look up what she was nominated for. I can't remember what it was. American Fiction, which was a good score. That's a good score. What a great film. A jazzy score. Yeah. I'm going Nuremberg. Have you seen it yet? I think Christmas, Christmas Day. I've got a screener at home. No, I know. I saw it too.

1:00:06But it is over two hours long. It's two and a half hours. Yeah, I know. I clocked that as well. It's two and a half hours of Russell Crowe sitting, which I will watch. You just, you really have to do the choral or the choral. Oh, yeah. Screener needs to be up. We don't have it yet. You got to do a Nuremberg the choral doubleheader. Yeah. The 78-year-old Sean saunters into the Angelica on a Tuesday at 2 p.m. That's what those movies are. Nothing against them. This is Sinners versus One Battle, I think. But to Jack's point, I think Hamnet being here and the idea of previously used music from Max Richter appearing in the film clearly didn't disqualify it.

1:00:45It is eligible to be nominated. You know, interesting, I think Hedda getting a look here is notable. A movie that is otherwise not really super represented. House of Dynamite otherwise not really represented here Wake Up Dead Man we mentioned otherwise not represented so you know some stuff here some warning signs some like this is always helpful I think for both of us to be like alright I gotta watch this this and this now absolutely that leads us to Best Picture Power Rankings okay so the rankings today are brought to you by Scout Motors and although it's not a film we do want to give an honorable mention to their all new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler iconic in the 70s reimagined for tomorrow with plans for advanced four-wheel drive.

1:01:25It'll be a showstopper. Now let's go through November 24th's power rankings. Number 10 was The Secret Agent. Number nine was Train Dreams. Number eight was Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Number seven was It Was Just an Accident. Number six, Sentimental Value. Number five, Frankenstein. Number four, Marty Supreme. Number three, Sinners. Number two, Hamnet. Number one, One Battle After Another. Okay. Now that list was pretty good. Yeah. We might quibble with the ranking a little bit, But we're maybe only going to have to strike one movie off the list, and I don't even know about that. Or maybe two. We can discuss it.

1:01:59Okay. I think The Testament of Anne Lee has been quietly put to bed. I think Is This Thing On has been quietly put to bed. Okay. So you're going through the outliers. Yes, the outliers. I think A House of Dynamite is done. Yeah. I think Rental Family is done. Yes. I think Springsteen is so done that we can take it off completely. We don't even have to mention those words anymore. though Jeremy Allen White did get a nomination a Golden Globe nomination but that's that's Golden Globes Inc holding on to their truths the new tier one to me that is on the outside looking in and we can decide whether or not any of these films is going to make the list right is as follows Wicked for Good of course we don't have it in right now but it is still right they're a contender they're hanging on and there's going to be a lot of below the line nominations for Wicked for Good and probably at least two in Best Actress and supporting actress.

1:02:48Maybe. Certainly supporting actress. There's a strong feeling that Cynthia Erivo could be out. Yeah. I think Chase Infinity could push her out. That would... We shall see. I think no other choice is still in tier one. I do as well. The Libyan Hun nomination at the Globes seems to indicate some strength. Yes. But the short list, it's it's present but not that present you'd like it to be stronger yeah for sure cinematography baffling I I don't I can't even imagine what the point is F1 I'm putting it in tier 1 okay that's fine welcome to tier 1 F1 you earned it what's it what is the tier 1 in F1 the sport called I don't know okay Jack wow alright is song sung blue in tier one well you listen you're like a little you texted me out of the theater yeah right how long was your drive home last night by the way it was one hour and four minutes okay not ideal and you were like I saw two films yesterday you know what I saw the two hour and 40 minute Magellan and then immediately drove four minutes away and saw song sung blue you know why I love film you know what I'm doing tomorrow?

1:04:13What are you doing? I'm doing a double header of Marty Supreme straight into Is This Thing On? Do I even need to get in my car? No, I don't. I've lined it right up. Thank you so much. The R-Men OK double feature. But you texted me right out of the theater and you were kind of surprised how much I liked, how much I loved. I think you just loved Song Song Blue. It's just so not really in my bag, but it's just like a big, beautiful, steaming Christmas ham. You know? Yeah. Where it's just like sometimes you just want that pineapple on there and those cherries and get that glaze going, you know, and just like, this is good for me.

1:04:47It's debatable. But like, I'm loosening the belt tonight for Song Song Blue. So let's be clear. It's not good for you. And also, would you actually eat a ham with pineapple and cherries? I've eaten plenty of ham in my days. Yeah. But like right now? No. And also, did you ever eat it with the mustard? Fuck no. That's psychotic behavior. Disgusting. I would never eat that. Okay. I hear what you're saying. I think that there is. I'm just I'm just I'm just drizzling idea dust on on this list tier one's fine tier one's fine okay tier tier one glaze on the list I'll add one more to the top of the list and I think this is in keeping with um wait I gotta go back to my list I think this is in keeping with um with the these shortlist nominations which is weapons weapons had been in tier two but we see it in casting and we know Amy Madigan is going to be nominated.

1:05:40I'm not saying it's going into Best Picture. I don't think it is. Right, but you're putting it in Tier 1. Okay. That means Tier 2 becomes Rental Family is this thing on The Testament of Anne Lee, House of Dynamite, J. Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man. Okay. Is that track? Yeah. Now, doing our 10,

1:06:02I'm going to start from the bottom up. Is it possible Sinners is in first place right now? No. Are you 100 % sure? And when it's first Critics Prize, it broke the one battle after another streak. Yeah. I think right now we're in the phase of everyone's tired. It's been a long time. We've got a long time to go. We're looking for narratives. We're looking for some juice. We're looking for some maple glaze. I know. Three months. And we're taking one battle for granted a little. You have been, you yourself, Sean Fennessey, have been a little overconfident. Yeah, presumptuous. And that's, you're right as a man sitting at this table.

1:06:46But I think that that's reflective of where we are in the race. And people are just kind of like, eh, maybe it's time to talk about sinners. And that, listen, it's good content. I still, I think it's two, not one. Two? Yeah. Are you, did you think Hamnet would be a bigger hit thus far? No, I didn't. Like, you mean a box office hit? Yeah, I do. I don't. I don't think that people were going to be rushing out open night. Like, you know, Paul Meskel is the internet's boyfriend, but it's not really like a Colleen Hoover, go with your girls type of movie. Bill Simmons loved it. Wow. Loved it. texted me immediately after seeing it.

1:07:30Wow, wow, wow, exclamation point. Wow. Listen, this is what I love about Bill. He always surprises. Did he cry? He didn't address that when I brought it to him. Okay. And then I told him what I thought of the movie, which is what we said on the pod, which is like first hour I really didn't like, but then it really did get me at the end. And then I think he listened to the pod. Okay. And he was like, you are a heartless fool. You are? Yeah. Okay. I think he implied that you were as well. Oh, I am? Yeah. I mean, I said, I literally cried on that podcast. You did cry. That was a moment. Well, listen.

1:08:03Let's aggregate that moment, internet. I cried and then you started tearing up. So that's fine if I'm heartless. I agree. We're not heartless. We're full of heart. Okay. So is Hamnet in three? You think it's one battle sinners in Hamnet right now? Is there anything above it? Marty coming? No, I think that you would probably have to put either it was just an accident or secret agent. Oh, interesting. Or like sentimental value. You know, where are we with that as a community? I think it's right where it belongs. Okay. Where's Bill with that? I don't believe he's seen the film. Okay. It is in Norwegian, so no guarantee that he's going to watch the film.

1:08:42Bill, if you watch it, please text me too. Okay. Because you want to be confirmed in your feelings of mixedness? No, I just thought I'm curious. You know, I value his opinion. I think One Battle still won and you're right that I'm getting overconfident about that. Okay. I do think that Sinners is increasingly, I can see the spoilerdom because I can see the Actors Awards, Ensemble win on stage. I can see score and song going early in the telecast to Sinners. I could see cinematography going to Sinners. I could see a couple of things that would make us go, what? and to your point earlier if somehow Wonmi Masaku and Delroy Lindo get into those acting races then it's like oh wow there's a ton of support flip side film didn't do that well overseas it's a black American film you know it has obviously elements of Irish history in it but it is it is an American movie and those movies don't have the strongest track record but there's something in the air I don't know what it is I think eight shortlist IDs is a lot and I listen I'm just, I'm flagging it for purposes of this conversation.

1:09:50I think number two is where it should be. Okay, number two. I don't think you're wrong. It still feels to me like the original screenplay winner. And then some below the line stuff. And that's, you know, traditionally the coolest and best award for our favorite person. So that would fit in my logic as well. Okay, then here's what I'll propose. Okay. I think Hammond is still three. Okay. I think it is very powerful. I think the people who love it, love it. So you'll see a lot of ones on those voting ballots. Okay. I think for, I think it was just an accident is an inspired idea. Okay. And given all the news about Panahi and some of the critical wins, that has power.

1:10:33I still, if I were, if we were filling out our predictions today, it would be one battle best picture and Panahi and best director. It's definitely possible. Yeah. Definitely possible. That would be - Which is not like a novel idea. many people are circling around that. No, but a lot of people have been pointing out that the last three or four years, the Oscars have been going heavy for one movie instead of, you know, spreading the wealth. So we'll see if one battle is truly a juggernaut or not. Or if Sinners is stronger than we think, then everything's on the table. I would then suggest that if it was just an accident, it's four, Marty is five, Frankenstein is six, Sentimental Value is seven.

1:11:11You think Frankenstein is above Sentimental Value? I do. Okay. Because I think it will have more total nominations. Okay. One, two, three, four, five. That's in the acting screenplay and best picture. Do you think? I don't think it's going to get into screenplay. But I do think it's going to get into directing. And I don't think Sentimental Value will get into directing. But I do think it will get into screenplay. Wait, what don't you think will get into? What's getting into what? I think Sentimental Value will get into screenplay yes and Frankenstein won't agree agree we're on the same page I think Frankenstein will get into directing and Sentimental Value won't agree and then I agree with you even though do I agree with those choices no but I agree with your assessment Sentimental Value will get three acting noms but it will get no below the line nominations whereas Frankenstein will get like six below the line nominations that's my gut right now could be wrong I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about so that's the top seven you got all that Jack?

1:12:13yeah he does okay Avatar Fire and Ash I don't think I don't think I don't either we're gonna have to figure something out alright we've got Train Dreams and The Secret Agent at 10 and 9 from last month I feel comfortable just moving those to 8 and 9 8 and 9 okay and you still think that Train Dreams is ahead of Secret Agent I think it's pretty tight I think they're both very well liked very well liked Secret Agent I think is a little bit of a a little bit of a tougher sit for some people because of its length I guess so and it's sort of all over the placidness However, Brazil, very popular, very strong in the academy.

1:12:45Yeah. Not been to the country. I'd like to go one day. It was lovely. You went? When I went, yeah. Did we talk about this? No, I went with my friend Stephanie when I was 25. I got the most sunburn I've ever got in my life. Interesting. What cities did you go to? I just went to Sao Paulo and then to the beach, but I don't remember the name of the beach, but it was beautiful. Okay, cool. I'd like to go back. I'd like to go to Rio. So 10. now if we're pulling from tier one the tier one choices are wicked for good no other choice F1 song sung blue weapons okay what's going okay so here's we forgot to mention one film yeah Surat you think it's going all the way that I mean that'd be awesome I mean we're talking we're just talking on a pod let's what do you want to put it you haven't even seen the film you want to put it in tier one do you know what's going on in this movie are you familiar with what happens I know like enough that I don't want to know the rest like stop talking to me and I couldn't go to the most recent screening.

1:13:44I can't remember whether I had to go see. Like, do you know the premise of the movie? Yeah, it's a rave in the desert. Yeah. That's how it opens. Yeah. No, I don't know the rest. I don't want to know anything. I'm not going to tell you anything. Okay. I'm just asking questions. Great. And I'm giving you answers. So now we have to talk about other things. So you can't say for sure. If it's whether it's an Academy movie or not. Or weapons or F1. I mean, to me, it's like the bold choice right now at this stage of things is F1, Surat. Right. Or no other choice. Those are, I think, the real contenders.

1:14:18Now, you know what? It might just be Wicked for Good. It might. That would be boring. I agree. But that also is going to have a bunch of below the line. What do you think will win the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Award at the Golden Globes and get that onstage moment? in that category are Avatar, Fire and Ash, Wicked for Good, and K-pop Demon Hunters. And then, you know. I think this is dependent on the first two weeks of Avatar's box office. Okay. Cinematic and box office achievement. 2025. I can read the rest for you. Please read the nominees. Well, F1 is also in there. Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning.

1:15:00Sinners. Weapons. Wicked for Good, Zootopia 2. Oh, Zootopia 2. You think? It's going to make like$1.6 billion. They're not just looking at the box office sheet. It's a cinematic achievement. Yeah. Have you seen the film? I'm going to take knocks. It's an extraordinary exploration of the way that we allow societies to divide us. Okay. I just, I'm saying there's also, is this, let's see, Sinners is nominated in drama. and one battle is in comedy. So, and Hanmat was not that strong at the Globes. So you think Sinners takes drama, one battle takes comedy. I do. And then, in this category, you think it'll be Zootopia over K-pop Demon Hunters, Avatar, and Wicked for Good?

1:15:55I do. Okay. Unless Zootopia is going to win an animated feature, which I don't think it is. I think K-pop Demon Hunters will win. you think that's how they're going to do the split? Maybe they give it to Wicked for good. Okay. Maybe just because, but the truth is, is that that movie has not succeeded nearly as much as the first film at the box office. Okay. I guess the follow-up question is, do you think that that stage moment for whichever of these films matters in terms of best picture nomination? Do you? I don't know. I think people are impressionable and seeing people on stage confers an idea of, I mean we've always said this about Do you get a Golden Globe for cinematic and box office achievement?

1:16:36What do they give you like a crunch bar? Like what's that worth? I love crunch bars I do too Remember when they did like Bunch of Crunch? Oh yeah That's so good Yeah that was good We've always said that the Ensemble Award at the SAG Awards rebranded as the Actor Awards was important in terms of seeing everybody together But that's because it's the last big thing that everyone sees before Oscar voting That's why Well, this is the last, is this, are the Globes after the nominations ballots are in? When, when is, what's the voting timeline? Oscars voting timeline. Timeline 2026. This is very exciting.

1:17:14That's like, bro, I'm in New Jersey. I'm trying to just relax. Nominations voting begins on January 12th, the morning after. So there. Great. Okay. I'm just, I'm just asking questions. So you think the Cinematic and Boxing Off Achievement Award. I'm just saying whether. No, I just want to make sure I'm getting this right. You said it's the most significant bellwether for the Best Picture race in 2026 is what you said, right? Just saying lizard brains. People have seen the people on stage and then they got to open their portals and, you know, testify that they've watched every single movie. What's going at 10?

1:17:47Make a choice.

1:17:53Well, let's see. Let's be bold. Let's do Sarai. I love it. That's exactly the right choice for the purposes of this list. Okay, let's read our list now. At number 10, Surratt. Yeah. Oliver Lash's Spanish film about a... Well, I won't say because I don't want to spoil it for you. Number nine, The Secret Agent. Number eight, Train Dreams. Number seven, Sentimental Value. Number six, Frankenstein. Number five, Marty Supreme. Number four, It Was Just an Accident. Number three, Hamnet. Number two, Sinners. And number one, One Battle After Another. Today's Best Picture Power Rankings was brought to you by Scout Motors.

1:18:27bold and cinematic. Just like these films, the all-new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler are planning to deliver that and more. Join the waitlist at scoutmotors.com. Concept vehicles not available for sale. Features and performance specifications are preliminary and subject to change. Joining the waitlist does not guarantee purchase. Visit scoutmotors.com for details. Well, that does it. Can I ask a question very quickly? Of course. Avatar Fire and Ash dropping out. More specifically, your personal reactions to the film or something larger collectively you think is being felt by the industry? Larger, I think.

1:19:07I think so. It's just the juice isn't there in the same way. I mean, you know, we also estimated that the box office would be much lower than Avatar The Way of Water. And the critical reactions are, it's not just us. Many people are saying that it's not as exciting as the first two. and it's the same logic we're using for Wicked for Good. That's exactly right. Way of Water was a 67 on Metacritic. Avatar Fire and Ashes is a 61 and will probably go down a bit over the next couple of days. So, I just think there is like everything that Amanda said, that lack of the thrill of the news, some of the repetition of the story beats, those things are working against it.

1:19:47But it's a good question and we could be wrong because, you know, Ben against Big Jim, dicey. So far, it has not served us. so did we have Way of Water in In In last time in 22 I don't remember I don't remember either nevertheless the next episode of this pod is going to be very cool because we are talking about Ella McKay and Is This Thing On two movies that I have no idea if the audience of this show are going to see Ella McKay just opened to one of the single lowest wide release weekend box office numbers in the history of film yeah however the film is also actively being memed on the internet I've also seen it and I have many strong thoughts as do I is this thing on you haven't seen yet I also have strong thoughts on this film tomorrow night so it's gonna be real coming on hot it's also we're at that time of year where it's crunch time it's crunch time for the movies it's crunch time for you and me and this has the prime Friday afternoon before Christmas second recording of the day spot.

1:20:56So like I, it will have to be seen and heard to be believed is these films and also the podcast. We're going to leaven that discussion with 10 overlooked and underseen movies from the year. You'll pick a few. I'll pick a few. We'll put our list together. We'll say, hey, maybe over the holidays, watch these movies. Sound good? That sounds great. Okay. Thanks to our producer, Jack Sanders, for his work on this episode. Thanks to CT for filling in in studio. We'll see you next time.

1:21:25Thank you.