Final 2025 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win

25:26It is still not have U.S. distribution, but people are still seeing it. Like it is still being shown in movie theaters, but it doesn't have like an actual company that has signed on to be its official distributor. It's also a movie that is going to be very divisive among people in the Academy. We saw the aftermath of Jonathan Glazer's speech at last year's Academy Awards. We sure did. Where he spoke about this conflict and he angered a lot of Jewish members of the Academy. So I find this to be a tough category to predict. Right. You know, I think as as Bobby pointed out when we first started talking about No Other Land, despite it being about the the most hot button issue or one of like the most divisive within the economy and in the world at large political conflicts in the world right now.

26:12So it is really, I mean, I guess it is political in that anything that has the words like Israel, Gaza, West Bank is political. But it is just a documentation of what is happening. It's a human story. Yeah. And it is, again, it is mostly filmed by one of the directors documenting what's happening. I think a lot of it was first on social media. And now it's kind of like being pulled together in a narrative way. Which is, I think, another reason that you have these first-person documentaries is because we're just all on our phones documenting things right now. But so I know what you mean, but to me it is different even than the Jonathan Glazer speech in the way that things are presented.

26:55It is very much like, here is what happened. Right. I am choosing it to win. As am I. Somewhat reluctantly, because I don't know how divisive it will be. I know that it's a movie that a lot of people have heard of. And that's essentially why I'm. I know. I completely agree. And it has been picking up every award. And then you just wonder how many other movies people will watch. Let's not be surprised by a porcelain war upset. I would not either. One of the other reasons. And I mean, this is all so craven and gross. And you're just like comparing like total tragedies year by year. but I'm like, well, last year was 20 years in Mariupol, so are they going to vote for a different tragedy this year, which is just like, you know.

27:39But it is how people think, honestly. I know, but that's just like, I hate myself for having that thought in my head. Yes. It's very silly also to say what should win, but I would choose Soundtrack 2 Akudeta just because I think formally it's a more interesting experiment in trying to tell a historical story. I liked, I mean, all of the issues are important, you know, so again, we're not voting for issues. I liked Black Box Diaries as a, you know, in many ways, it's like it's not Japanese, she said, but it is, you know, investigating that legal system, that journalist, that media ecosystem, how like a rape case would be explored and covered in that country.

28:24so I I was like this is interesting I I kept kind of watching it and then the the controversies around it in Japan are also kind of interesting and again I I do not uh speak or read Japanese so I was reading like translations I have no idea whether I'm right or not but the use of the very there's some very galling um like absolutely horrifying uh video camera footage that is used and then who says that's allowed to be used and where and how and how that's affected. This will come up again. Yeah. It's talking about the shorts. Yes. Was fascinating. So I enjoyed. Check out Black Box Iries if you haven't seen it.

29:03I think it's on Paramount Plus right now. Yeah. Enjoy is like not the word. It's very tough. Yes. Check it out. All right. International feature film. This was a category that was considered settled for about three months. The nominees are I'm Still Here, The Girl with the Needle, Emilia Perez, The Seat of the Sacred Fig, and Flo. Of course, Emilia Perez was by far the frontrunner, the most nominated for the Academy Awards this year. The scandal that hit about five or six weeks ago has completely torpedoed its chances in a lot of categories. That doesn't mean it's done here. I agree with you, Sean.

29:41But I'm not choosing it. You're going to go with the Brazilians? I'm going to take I'm Still Here. I think that, I mean, I think that you're right. Honestly, part of my, again, and again, I just, I'm really sorry to generalize with a country as historically, you know, rich and varied as Brazil. But like, they like capybaras so much that I've, and that capybaras are native to Brazil. So I'm like, maybe Flo. And then here, I think you're right, that I'm Still Here really could pull it out. I mean, it has a Best Actress nomination and a Best Picture nomination. So in the event that anybody who looks at the Amelia Parris story has an awareness of it, feels that it has become a nuclear circumstance, this feels like the next best place to go.

30:28Now, Flo is beloved. I think there's a lot of admiration for the Seat of the Sacred Fig, though it didn't perform as well as some people thought it might throughout this season. But I think the campaign's been strong. I think Fernanda Torres has campaigned well. you know for me I find that movie to be very traditional it feels very much to me like a 1985 sort of Academy Award nominee it's not a bad film by any means but it felt somewhat rote and I know people are mad because there's a huge passion for that movie that I didn't like it that much but I just didn't really connect with it and but I know that I'm in the minority at least among people who have checked it out I liked it I as I was falling asleep last night very very cool thought process I realized that we forgot the ending of I'm Still Here for best ending in our Alternative Academy Awards.

31:14I didn't love it. Well, I just liked that it was Fernando Montenegro, you know? Yeah, sure. That was cool. The connectivity with her mom and former best actress nominee. I mean, I agree that the third act, I would like to know more about everything that happened in the third act. I'm not sure why. It kind of yada yada'd the like she became a national hero. I was like, wait. Sure. And like activists for indigenous rights and all. Why was this so slow for the first hour and a half? No, I know. Though I have to say like their home in Rio looked fantastic. I was just talking with Justin Sales about this yesterday.

31:43The film had me the first 45 minutes. The family story all the way up until the inciting incident, really, of their family story was very compelling. It seems cool if you could own a house a block from the most famous beach in the world and just walk back and forth. Nice life, I guess. Put it on your 2026 bucket list. Anyway. So you're choosing I'm Still Here as well. No, I'm doing Amelia Press. Really? I think it's a hang on. Oh, interesting. Okay. I think that, I mean, listen, like we just said, Carlos Gascogne will be at the Oscars. Netflix is paying for it. Like, I think she's not going to win.

32:18I don't think it's going to win Best Picture. But in the same way that we were all like so befuddled by like, how does everyone like this so much? You know, I think people will be like, sure, in this category. Yeah, I liked it. I don't really care. Did you end up watching The Girl with the Needle? I did last night. That was my last thing that I watched. LOL. What did you think of that? I mean, it's pretty, I mean, well-made. Impressive. Yeah. Beautiful photography. You know me and carnies. So. Got it. That's my only issue. Okay. So that's, so we split on two out of three so far. Yeah. Who do you think should win?

32:54Flo. You think Flo? Yeah. I'm going to go with Seated Sacred Fig. Okay. Which, you know, should literally be 40 minutes shorter than it is. but I thought especially in all of the family stuff and the setup and like the first hour rips in my opinion. Man, I really, I struggled with this one. Another movie where I'm like, the story is more important than it is interesting to me personally. Well, I just, you know, who doesn't like a Chekhov's gun, you know? Yeah, but like, it's literally a gun. It's like, in the first 20 minutes, I was like, okay, I know what this is going to be. I think obviously because of the story of what Mohamed Rasoloff had to go through to make that film.

33:40He's been exiled now. And all of that is remarkable. The same is true for the story that Walter Salas is telling in I'm Still Here. These are incredibly relevant. I would agree with you that hours two and three meander. Yes. And I have some questions about everyone's strategy in the ending. But we're not doing rewatchables right now. Like where are they all going? You want to do like an all 22 tape breakdown of the ending of the Seed of the Sacred Fig. We're just like, why? Don't spoil it. Don't spoil it for people who haven't seen it. Why is that the strategy? I don't know. If you haven't seen the Seed of the Sacred Fig, we'll probably never talk about it again on the show because I didn't love it that much.

34:13But whatever. Okay. Well, we've already split on two out of three and we haven't even gotten to the shorts. Okay. I don't even know what to do with these. I think I said I only liked one. That's not entirely true. I liked a few more than one. But this is not my favorite crop of films. you have called to abolish the shorts from the telecast in the past. Listen, that, I mean, that's true. I should say it with my whole chest. New award ceremony. It's a different thing. It's a new award ceremony. Short films do matter. They just don't really make a lot of sense in the context of this award show, which we're on the same page about.

34:48So let's go through that. And they and the voters end up doing this, like the voters and I end up doing the same thing every time, which is just like speed watching all of them. If you even watch them at all, which I did, But you do wonder how many voters are going to go through all 15, even though they're made available on the platform. This is the other thing. They're hard to see. They're getting better. Many of them are available to rent on Vimeo or YouTube now, though it's not clear to me whether that money is going to. I'm not really sure what that distribution is about. I don't know how it works.

35:19I mean, they show them in a select number of 800 theaters every year for a week or two. We all live on the Internet. People are watching this on the damn Internet. Put it on YouTube and put a rent button by it. Like, I just don't under. Honestly, it's a good call. Yeah. They should find a way to make them more widely available. If we're going to do this. I think they should probably get more aggressive with this at the shortlisting stage. Once the films are shortlisted, all of those movies should be made publicly available. There's a million reasons why that's not the case. Just like we can't get Anora to be streaming before the world.

35:47You know, like not enough people have seen it for this to have been a meaningful moment. But like if we're going to do this and we're still going to have these at the Oscars under the guise of it's important to honor emerging filmmakers. and like the next generation, then make the shit available. Yeah. Emerging filmmakers like Wes Anderson. Sure. Okay. Best animated short. Why don't you read the nominees once you've finished sucking down that giant water bottle? Hydration is important. I agree. Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of the Cypress, Magic Candles, Wander to Wonder, and Yuck! Exclamation point.

36:19I chose Yuck. I don't feel great about it. I don't, I only really clicked with one of these and I tell you, it was not Beautiful Men. which is about three men who go to Turkey to get a hair transplant which of course is all the rage now. Shout out to Van Lathan who's had some amazing experiences with hair transplants. But not in Turkey, right? Not in Turkey. I thought Yuck was very sweet and I thought it had a nice animation flourish. The lips was very memorable. It's also fairly short. Yeah. These were all pretty short. You know, In the Shadow of the Cypress is probably the heaviest of the five.

37:00Yes. But not the one that I clicked with the most. The one I liked the most was Wander to Wonder. Well, I've picked that to win. You have. Okay, interesting. It won the BAFTA and the Annie. Okay, it could win. It's not, it doesn't really have like a strong message. That's true. And I tend to look for message movies in the short films. Okay. I tend to look for precursors. Okay, fair enough. But I liked Wander to Wonder. That was my favorite, by far. That animation style, the tone, I enjoyed it. It felt like an Aardman kind of film. I liked Magic Candies. Yeah, it was sweet. I mean, you know, I liked it better than Yuck, which I thought was too sentimental.

37:39Okay. I don't really have a ton more to say about the animated short. Best Documentary Short. I have some things to say about this category. The nominees are Death by Numbers, I Am Ready Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart, and the only girl in the orchestra. Your thoughts? I am going, I'm predicting I am ready, Warden, to win. I am as well. It is available on Paramount Plus in addition to being available on the Academy site. And I do think visibility is important. It is also a recognizable documentary, accessible documentary format as opposed to incident, which I think should win, but I think will be difficult for most voters firing it up.

38:29I mean, it is difficult. It is absolutely. Incident uses police body cam footage and security cam footage to recreate and not to recreate, but to show and investigate the police. a police shooting of a civilian in Chicago in, I believe, 2018. And so you are watching that happen over and over and over again from different angles. And it is horrifying and incredibly upsetting and obviously really important. But the first title card is just a heads up that much of the movie doesn't even have sound. So I think, you know, when we do these, we don't really think very highly of the voters, which is possibly unfair.

39:21But I do imagine that would be alienating to a lot of people turning on their portal to try to get through these as soon as possible. The looking at my phone crowd won't connect with Incident as much. Incident is also sponsored, purchased, whatever, by the New Yorker who they do this a couple times every year. And have they won yet? That's a very good question. I'm not sure of the data on that, but there's often a more high-minded and somewhat experimental. You know, Bill Morrison, the director of this film, is a brilliant documentarian. If folks haven't seen Dawson City, Frozen Time, his 2016 feature, it's a fascinating portrait of time lapsing.

40:02and he's very admired in the community, but I would not say that Incident, which is by far my favorite of the five, screams Oscar winner, even though it's an important issue. All of these films are about something important or powerful in their own way. You know, if The Only Girl in the Orchestra won, I would not be surprised. Well, it's on Netflix. It's on Netflix. Netflix tends to do very well in the shorts category. It is also, like I Am Ready Warden, a very recognizable portrait-style short doc of a longtime member of the New York Philharmonic who plays Double Bass, who is a ward under Leonard Bernstein, and who is sort of a very retiring person but is also very charismatic in her own way.

40:49And it's just like a nice, well-made movie. And sometimes movies like that— Made by her niece. Made by her niece, yes. Yeah. Uses Beethoven's seventh very well. Just always glad to hear that. Last year, there was a, what was the name of the short film about the instruments program in the public schools in Los Angeles that won? The Last Repair Shop. The Last Repair Shop. Chris Bowers, also a nominee this year. Yes, exactly. So you do wonder whether, and that was children, you know? That they were all over it. Well, and there's another. Instruments of a Beating Heart is also in that category. If Instruments of a Beating Heart wins, maybe you and I should make a film about kids playing music.

41:29Could do well at the Academy Awards. I think I Am Ready Warden is a familiar kind of story about a person on death row, but told very differently. And the subject of the film, the man on death row, I would say comports himself differently in this experience than really what we've seen before. I think that's going to resonate with people. I thought it was an interesting movie. This is not a bad crew. Death by Numbers, I thought, was the most traditional, though, of course, it's also about a very important incident. A young girl who survived a school shooting who then becomes an advocate in the proceedings of the trial of the school shooter who survived.

42:05Very rarely do school shooters actually survive that incident. You know, it's a heavy category. Best live action short. What are the nominees? Anuja, I'm Not a Robot, The Last Ranger, how are we saying? Alien or alien? Alien. Yeah. And the man who cannot remain silent. Okay. I don't feel good about this zag, but I'm doing alien. You are? Yeah. Okay. I think it should win. So that would be exciting. Well, listen, out of the category itself. I thought the man who cannot remain silent was superior. That's, that's the other one. I found the alien to be incredibly stressful and affecting. And the, you know, the fake green grass, the camera going everywhere all the time.

42:55It's still very manipulative to me. Well, it is, but so is the subject that it is portraying, which are the ice, well, you wouldn't even call them raids, but the ice tactic of arresting people who have come for their green card interview. And obviously, that is incredibly relevant to what is happening all over this country right now in completely horrifying ways. That's why I think you will win. I think it will be a vote for empathy in this experience. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent similarly is an international story and is a recreation of a 1993 massacre where Serbian paramilitary entered a Croatian train and removed people and murdered them for not having their papers in order or whatever.

43:45But I thought the filmmaking was very good in that film. And I'd like to see more from that director. I would also be very happy with that one. It was very good. So what are you picking? I'm going with Anuja. Okay. Because that's the celebrity-backed Netflix entrant. I didn't think this was very good. I did not either, but that's not what we're picking here. Okay. That's who I'm predicting. You're saying because Mindy Kaling is the executive producer of this film. Yes, and it's available on Netflix. And it's, you know, about a small child and access to education. Two important things. Again, the ideas are important.

44:19It's the execution that we quibble with. Okay. So Alien for me, and Anuja for you. Your favorite category now, original song. Okay. Yeah. The nominees in original song are El Mal from Emilia Perez, The Journey from the 6888, which you and I just heard for the first time moments ago. Like a Bird from Sing Sing, Mi Camino from Emilia Perez, Never Too Late from Elton John Colon, Never Too Late. I'm doing it. I'm going Diane Warren. What? Let's get it over with. Let's get it the fuck over with. Let's go. Wow. I mean, you have two Amelia Press. So some vote splitting. Netflix is behind Diane Warren.

45:06Let's just like, you know, God bless them. We don't have to endure the performances this year. Let's just do it and be done. Okay? Yeah, definitely. Let's do it and be done. I'm choosing Elmall. I think Elmall will win. Maybe not. I love what you're about. You're bringing great energy. Great stuff. Like a bird should win, but even that is not my favorite song in the world. This category stinks. Just get it. We should just junk it. No, I think that we should let Dina Simone from Opus win. We should give Niall Rogers an Oscar and then, does he already have one? Give him another. That's fine. And then we can junk it.

45:41Has Niall Rogers E got it? He probably doesn't have an Emmy, right? Let's see. No, Nile Rodgers doesn't have an Oscar. Okay. Maybe he doesn't have any of these awards. I assume he has a Grammy. Well, you never know with them. It's very true. Okay. Well, I'm choosing Elmol. Okay, you're probably right. Every indication. I think Elmol is a heavy favorite, so maybe this is a boring pick. Does Nile Rodgers really not even have a Grammy? Oh, Grammy Award. Hmm. What is this? He's won these? Okay, he has an award. Oh, forget Lucky. Oh, of course. Okay. Naturally. All right. That makes sense. Okay, that's fine.

46:21They waited a solid 35 years to give him a Grammy. There you go. Anyhow, original score. Next category. Mm-hmm. You want to read the nominees? Sure. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist. Volker Bertelman, Conclave. Camille and Clement Ducol, Amelia Perez. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked. Chris Bowers, The Wild Robot. Now, I'm choosing Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist. As am I. Some energy coming out that, you know, maybe Conclave has more of a chance here than we'd realized. It's a good score. It is a pretty good score. It's a pretty good score for a thriller. Yeah. You know, it's fine. It's no The Brutalist score.

47:04No. Is The Brutalist score too abstract, too odd? That kind of ticking clock quality that it has for the common voter? I don't really think so because it still has those, like, it has that hook. Like, literally, it has a hook that is used majestically throughout the film in that opening. So if they've only seen 20 minutes, then they got the gist. I don't really understand the Wicked nomination, as I've said before. I don't understand how it's eligible, but Dune Part 2 score was not. Agreed. Okay. Chris Bowers' score for The Wild Robot is quite good. I don't fully understand why Maren Morris' song from The Wild Robot didn't make the cut.

47:42but Chris Bowers did make the cut. You would have to ask all of Diane Warren's friends. I mean, that's a factor for sure. That's a factor. All right. Well, we can just move on. I hope Daniel Bloomberg wins. So do I. That's one of my favorite film scores in many years. And I think it will be, I think it will be remembered. Best sound. Now this category, obviously a few years ago was collapsed. It was previously best sound editing and best sound mixing. Let me see if I can remember this correctly. is sound editing is more like for bullets and car crashes and sound mixing is usually more for like underwater experiences and things like that.

48:22So sort of like creating a more natural world experience. Like that. Just like that. Very good. They're together now. That's great. We just so happen to have two musicals in this category. The nominees are A Complete Unknown, Dune Part II, Emilia Perez, Wicked, and The Wild Robot. but I guess you could make the case that there are three musicals if you include a complete unknown in that list. And yet, I'm selecting Dune Part 2. As am I. I also think Dune Part 2 should win. I'm going with a complete unknown to win. Okay. Because they had all those live performances, and I don't know. We like it.

48:56And my house. Are you confusing the quality of the performances with how good they are mixed? No. I'm just enjoying the whole thing. It was like going to a Bob Dylan concert. I didn't get to go to one of those. I wasn't around. So thanks everyone. Are you offended when I start questions with, are you confused by? No, that's, I'm used to it. But I do, I do think Dune part two will win because it's won almost every precursor except for the Cinema Audio Society Award, which went to a complete unknown. And yet you're not choosing it. I'm not, but you know. That's a very small body. As a member of the Cinema Audio Society, I'm pleased to say that we had the right take.

49:41That would be a good name for this show, the Cinema Audio Society, before we went on YouTube. I'm sure they have it trademarked. Best visual effects. We're really plowing through the below the line categories right now. Now, this one is relevant because it is the only category in which you have not seen a film. Yes. I forgot to watch Alien Romulus. So read the nominees. Alien Romulus, Better Man, Dune Part 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and Wicked. I've once again chosen Dune Part 2. As have I. But there could be a spoiler. Do you think it could be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes? I think so too.

50:19The Planet of the Apes films have never won in this category. So when I went to go see the film, when I screened it at Disney, they, before the film, showed me a 10-minute compilation of the mocap performances that the actors were doing and then put a side-by-side of what the apes looked like in an effort to show the extraordinary lengths that they went to to build these worlds. It's very impressive. My big issue with that film is really the script. I just don't think the story of that film is very strong. I think it's maybe not quite big enough a hit. Interesting. so sometimes when a movie like this rises above it's usually a a big big blockbuster and this was sort of a middle tier blockbuster whereas dune part 2 was above it in that respect plus dune part 2 obviously you know has a best picture nomination exactly it has a wider breadth it has it has legacy in this category as well because it won for dune part one some years ago when i went to see kingdom of the planet of the apes i briefly fell asleep so i think uh you know it's very good what they do.

51:25You know, it's very convincing, but as you're right. It's very good what they do. I agree. It's very good what they do with the effects, but it was a boring one. You know those are not real monkeys. I do. Just to confirm. So Alien Romulus is a fascinating nomination here. It's the movie's only nomination. It's a movie that, you know, Chris and I did an episode about the film when it came out in August. We both liked it. A pretty good deal as a blockbuster. I thought it was really entertaining. We're pretty picky about our alien movies. I think the aliens... Yeah, you guys were open to it. We were open to it.

51:55Yeah, the alien stuff in the movie, the xenomorph stuff, is very good. The Ian Holm decision, the decision to CGI recreate Ian Holm and his version of his, not his character, but a version of his character from the original Alien film was much maligned. It was one of the big things that I didn't like about the movie. Chris didn't like it about the movie. If you hear feedback about this movie, this comes up pretty quickly. So it's surprising to me that it got love from this branch in the first place. I don't think it has any chance of winning. I would like to see more Fede Alvarez alien movies, though, and I think he's going to make another one.

52:29Well, that's great news. Okay. Let's go to the next category, production design. Here you see the production designer and the set decorator get recognized in this category. So the nominees are Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia for The Brutalist, Susie Davies and Cynthia Slater for Conclave, Patrice Vermette and Shane View for Dune Part 2, Craig Lathrop and Beatrice. Brenton Rova for Nosferatu and Nathan Crowley and Lisa Andalus for Wicked. You want to tell me what you're choosing? I am choosing Wicked. I am as well. Can I tell you something about this? Yes. Production design innocent in the film Wicked.

53:10Okay. I actually think the production design is very good in this movie. It's the lighting that is the problem. Okay. And so if this film were lit differently, for example, not backlit for the majority of the film, so as to seem as though sunrays are beaming through on our characters, this world would have been more interestingly rendered. What about the color choices? Where are you? That's not the production designer's job. All right. They're working with the palette given to them. Yeah. Okay. I think they built a very credible world. Sure, they did. That could have been not credible. Did it look like with The Wizard of Oz?

53:45No. Did that annoy me? Yes. But actually, I think their job was quite difficult. I think everybody in this list did a great job with what they were given. It's a good collection of nominees. I would agree with you. Obviously, I have a ton of admiration for what The Brutalist accomplished on an incredibly small budget. And also the basic complication. Like, not even complication. Like, the contradiction of the movie is that you are building a whole world about a building and the construction of a building that you do not have the budget or the means to build. Yes. And they do an incredible job representing absolutely all of it.

54:21I do think that the weird AI snafu probably did not help them. Got in the sauce a little bit. Not really fair to Judy Becker, in my opinion. I agree. Because it was a contractor, and she did an amazing job. That's what I would pick to win. I think all these are good. I have should win as Dune Park 2 because I think they're operating from a place of like complete and total imagination with what's on the page there you know and trying to render some of these things as extraordinary now they have more advantages this crew because they have a huge budget relative to some of these other movies Nosferatu is no slouch in this category you know the fact that it overperformed so hard in the below the line categories I think is like real admiration for it I'd be very curious to see the voting totals in this category The conclave is like beautifully done, both obviously the staging for all of like the your Renaissance paintings, but also just the Vatican rooms, you know, like the weird hotel quality of all of those rooms is so like texturally like specific and evocative.

55:26It really, really well done. Even Lawrence confronting Adeyemi in his room. Yeah. In that room. And you're like, that is definitely what those rooms look like. Exactly. You believe the space so thoroughly. And you know, they like remade the Sistine Chapel in that movie. It's pretty crazy. Okay. A cool category. The Oscars. What do you know? Wicked's probably going to win my least favorite of the five. Costume design. Who are the nominees? Ariane Phillips, A Complete Unknown. Lisey Crystal, Conclave. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator 2. Lyndon, how are we saying? Muir. Muir. Nosferatu. Paul Tazewell, Wicked.

56:02I think Wicked's going to win. I do as well. I think this is actually one of the lockiest of the. I agree. And you know what? I think they should win. Oh. Liked those popular dresses. How generous of you. Great job. Yeah. It's okay. Should win is Nosferatu for me. Okay. All those bodices. Yeah, they're good. You know? They're very good. All those cloaks that Count Orlok is rocking. But are you, like, is that who should win for the achievement? Or is that just how you would like to dress? I haven't broken out Count Orlok voice on you yet but that's coming not today not today is this the only Gladiator 2 nomination?

56:43can't recall I think it is it's kind of a weird one well all those tunics you know sandals I was gonna say togas are they togas? I'm trying to remember I mean I guess some people are wearing togas Roman not Greek is Greek toga? I mean I do think the Greeks started with the toga. Let's just Google toga right now. Okay, great. You know? This is the kind of content you come here for. Toga, a distinctive garment of ancient Rome. No, I'm sorry. I was wrong about the Greeks. Okay. Okay. So, they were wearing togas. Yeah. And various sandals. Mm-hmm. And some other stuff. All those breast pleats. Sure.

57:21And all the little crowns and such. All the crowns. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. What'd you think of those twins? Seemed like they had the stuff. You know? They were ready to rule. Yeah. Shades of Kamala. Okay. Let's go to makeup and hairstyling. The nominees are a different man. Emilia Perez, Nosferatu, The Substance, and Wicked. I think The Substance will win. I do too. Wicked and The Substance have kind of split the guild ones. I don't really see it with Wicked in this particular, just because of Elphaba's green skin. She's quite green. Sure. That was the accomplishment relative to The Substance, which is this orgiastic explosion of makeup effects?

58:06It's pretty central to the plot. If you get the wrong green, you know? Okay. Listen, I also think that The Substance should win. How many times have you watched Wicked? One time. Okay. You seem to be showing some affection for it here. No, I just... Thank you. I'm honoring what I saw and what was there. you know honor the makeup honor the film it was green it was quite green you think Wicked should win? no Substance okay we're aligned on that we've been aligned on a lot of these some of these are snoozy we did the interesting ones at first okay let's get less snoozy film editing okay I don't know what's going on here I don't either I don't know if I'm taking a chance by doing this or not we talked about how this was one category in a potential quartet of potential wins for Sean Baker.

59:00The nominees Oh, you're going to read them. Yeah. are Enora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Amelia Perez, and Wicked. If Sean Baker wins this, I just, I think we know where the rest of the night is going. Yes. I think there's not a high likelihood that The Brutalist wins, but if The Brutalist wins, my antenna goes straight to the roof. Sure. Because there's not a ton of evidence that it's going to happen. Yeah. But I know that there are people who have admiration despite the film's length. The Brutalist has wildly underperformed the guilds, but again, similar to the kind of flow versus the wild robot thing where I'm like, what's really in the sauce of the Academy right now?

59:39Who are the dominant blocks? Right. I still haven't fully figured that out yet. I don't think it's going to be a big night for the Brutalist at all, spoiler alert. But I'm keeping my eye on that. To me, it is ultimately between Conclave and Enora, which is what I think we all think Best Picture comes down to, right? That's so crazy. Yeah, I think so. What a weird year. How did we get here? Yeah, yeah. So who do you have winning this? I have Conclave winning. I do too. Yeah, I think I'm - I don't feel good about it. I don't either. And like I said, if Sean Baker's up there, you know, I think we know how the rest of the night's going to go.

1:00:14I think you're right about The Brutalist. I also think The Brutalist should win because I think everyone who's whining about the length is confusing the task of what an editor does. And it's not to just trim. It's not what I love to do as an editor of writing. It's about pacing, and it's actually bringing that absolutely sprawling, sort of maniacal vision into some sort of focus and pace, and you can follow what's going on. And that movie moves. It is however many hours, but it moves. You know, it's so funny you say that, because I have Brutalist should win in a couple of categories where it might feel like a reach, but I picked Anora should win.

1:00:51Well, that's nice. I'll tell you why. Also a long movie that moves. A long movie that moves, I think slows down a little bit too much for me. That's a story choice. The same way that The Brutalist kind of makes story choices that I think people don't love. I just think cutting comedy is an underrated skill. And the second act of the movie is a diamond. It's like a perfect, and look at the way in particular when they enter Yvonne's home or Yvonne's parents' home and the way that Annie is being sort of like attacked by these men or restrained by these men. There are a lot of cuts, a lot of different angles an energy that is super duper high.

1:01:25You know, obviously Baker conceptualizing, writing, shooting, doing everything on this movie. You might take this away from him a little bit. You might say, well, if you do everything yourself, then you, you know. But it's hard to get just right. I'm with you. It's hard to get just right. Some good nominees in this category do not know why Wicked is here. You know, Bohemian Rhapsody won this category five years ago. This is a very finicky category. If I think legitimately, I think it's very similar to Best Picture in terms of it's like one film's at 60%, one film's at 35%, one film's at 10%. And we should know that Best Editing is historically, it is often tied to Best Picture.

1:02:06It is sort of, I mean, even though that's like changing a little bit, but... You see correspondence in terms of the winners having a Best Editing nomination historically. It can be a sign. So that's why we're like scratching our heads about it. Another one that's a little tricky Cinematography Who are the nominees? Lowell Crawley The Brutalist Greg Frazier Dune Part 2 Paul Guillaume Amelia Perez Ed Lackman Maria Jaron Blaschke Nosferatu Now I mentioned to you that the ASC Awards threw us for a little bit of a loop over the weekend by giving their award to Ed Lackman It's been a long time since a movie that did not have a Best Picture nomination won in this category Yeah Doesn't usually happen.

1:02:51It did happen for Deakins, as I recall, for Blade Runner 2049. That wasn't a Best Picture nominee, right? Yeah, but that was Deakins. It was Deakins. And, I mean, it is insane that Ed Lachman doesn't have an Oscar. Agree. And so you could see that happening, but I don't know if he has the, like, household name across the Academy that Deakins does in terms of its time to overcome the fact that, like, literally no one but you and me saw Maria. Yeah. I thought it was interesting that he got this for another Pablo Lorraine movie that was less appreciated, but maybe just speaks to the strength of that body in his mind or in his body of work.

1:03:29Hmm. So I chose Law Crawley for The Brutalist. As did I. I think Darren Blaschke should win for Nosferatu. I probably do too. It's pretty close. I probably do too. I think they're both, they both had hard jobs. they both are working with very exacting filmmakers with very strong visions who I say this with affection for both Robert Eggers and Brady Corbet are really up their own asses somebody needs to take the microphone away from somebody you just mentioned Brady? Sir come on just you know I think he has done actually a very smart thing for himself of course I think he has developed a cult of personality and a persona that is hard for filmmakers to do in 2025 Whether you like him or not is kind of immaterial.

1:04:13Most of the great directors are en font tarifs. Very few people are Steven Spielberg. They're like, oh, he seems like a nice man. It's like, go read an interview with Godard. It's like, they're assholes. Okay. So we're on the same page with Lawl Crawley. We've matched on a lot of these. Yes. We're kind of going a little chalky. I do also think that Ed Lachman deserves an Oscar. Agreed. If you want to put that for should win, you know. Yeah, I mean, we can go through his entire filmography and say, why did he not win one? That looked good. Yeah, he probably, let's see, what's the earliest one he should have won?

1:04:49Maybe Desperately Seeking Susan in 1985? Yeah. That's how, you know, that's how far back his career goes. He shot The Lords of Flatbush in 1974. We're talking about a 50-year body of work. Okay, next category is original screenplay. The nominees are Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance. You gonna do it? I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it either. I really want to do it. I know. And you could, like, it could not be wrong. But you're not going to do it. You're going to go with Sean Baker for Anora. I'm going to go with Sean Baker for Anora. I really want to go for a real pain.

1:05:27Yeah. I mean, it's there. There are hints. There are clues. It's possible. There's a lot of clues. There's some precursor stuff. There's also the Jesse Eisenberg factor. Yes. He is a very well-liked and accomplished actor who has worked with many people in Hollywood. He's worked in huge productions. He's worked in independent film. He's worked on television. He's worked in the theater. He's also just, if you've met him, just a nice, funny guy. Just so lovely. And he's been giving great speeches. Did you see the bit where someone asked him about his TikTok or all his social media stuff? No. And he's like, I'm old and dumb, so I just do whatever.

1:06:05and then says the name of the nice young woman at Searchlight who is in charge of the social media strategy. And he knows her name and he's like, she's lovely. And she's just like, do this. And so then I did it. And I was just like, well, Jesse Eisenberg, you're the best. Yeah, I mean, he's great. He's run a great campaign. Also relatable. I mean, he's one of us, obviously, age-wise at least. Original screenplay historically has been the bastion of the cool. Yeah. Anora is the kind of movie that usually wins just original screenplay. Right. And nothing else. Exactly. And so we're in a funky year where I think it's probably going to win.

1:06:43And I'm probably tipping my hand about how I feel like everything's going to go on this night. But again, if it doesn't win, much like editing, the Conclave siren is going to start wailing. Oh, because something else gets original and then Conclave gets adapted. It's possible. Okay. And Conclave is adapted, and that means Conclave's package, so to speak, will be stronger. Do you think, let me ask you, does it matter who else wins original screenplay if it's not Enora? Like, do you interpret a real pain win differently than you would a substance win? I think so. I might have misspoken on the cinematography category.

1:07:25I think it's actually original screenplay is a category that very rarely wins without a Best Picture nomination. So, A Real Pain not having a Best Picture nomination, which I predicted for months and months that it would. I wonder if this is one of the rare cases where after nominations, Jesse Eisenberg did a lot of good for his film in terms of advocating for it, even though it lost out on Best Picture. Like, he could have just packed up. He could have been like, I got screenplay. That's cool. You know. I'll be there. I'll show up. I'll support Kieran. But I'm not going to do a lot. But he's done a lot.

1:08:01And I think a real pain not being a BP nominee, but winning shows that Anora is not strong. Okay. That's just, this is a gut. What if the substance wins? I'm not going to totally rule Anora out. Because you think that's people just being like, well, you know what? I like the substance. But both a real pain and the substance have acting nominees already locked up. So it would be less of a throw this film a bone and more of a I'm not that psyched about Anora. Well, what that could tell you, and we're really in game theory territory here, is if they give original screenplay to the substance, it could mean that Mikey Madison could still win Best Actress.

1:08:39No, I don't think so. Okay. We'll get there very shortly. So we both have Anora. Yes. Should win? I wrote a real pain. I wrote the film Anora. Okay, great. Written by Sean Baker. Adapted screenplay. The Brutalist is a movie that I love. It, at times, feels like a person writing a novel in a screenplay. Sure. My favorite scene in the movie is, obviously, Van Buren and Laszlo Toth having their exchange. But, like, everything that Laszlo Toth says in that scene, I'm like, no human has ever said these words together. But Adrian Brody's so good that it doesn't matter. Yeah, and Guy Pearce, too. He tricks you, yeah.

1:09:18Yeah. Okay. Adapted screenplay. The nominees are? A Complete Unknown. Conclave, Amelia Perez, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing. This is actually the most locked category of the night. Conclave. Yes. Yeah, it's won at every single awards thing. Peter Strawn, long time screenwriter, admired. This book is okay. At best. It's insane. I mean, he's basically saddled with the weirdest, silliest ending to like a very pulpy, fun story. And makes it work. and makes it work until the ending. I mean, the ending you're still sort of like, what? I still feel that way too. But you just don't care about everything else.

1:09:58We should talk about that when we talk about Best Picture. Okay. I have Conclave winning as well. I think Nickel Boy should win. As do I. A major achievement. We've talked about why it's such an achievement on past episodes. Actor in a supporting role. The nominees are Yura Borisov for Enora, Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. Kieran Culkin Kieran Culkin will win this award Yes He will give a seemingly tossed off but maybe secretly privately constructed speech He's very good at remembering his lines so to speak You know he's good in this movie He's my I'm pro Kieran Culkin Least favorite of the nominees He's my least favorite of the nominees Okay He's not bad It's a very good character I well he's tied for least favorite in my opinion so with Jeremy Strong yeah the succession boys is it just because you hate Roy Cohn or because you don't like what he did are you confused by no I'm not confused by I just like I get it and it's it's a very Jeremy Strong performance in a movie that I was sort of irritated by okay I think Guy Pearce should win as do I oh that's nice He's incredible in that movie.

1:11:18Fantastic. Actress in a supporting role. The nominees are Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande for Wicked, Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini for Conclave, and Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Will win Zoe Saldana. Oh, you're going to zag? No. Will win Zoe Saldana, should win Zoe Saldana. How about that? Should win Ariana Grande. so there you go you're really coming out strong for Wicked no it's just listen I can appreciate what is good and then say that the rest is not but she was very good very winning I liked her performance as well I talked about it when I talked about the film on the show I also live with Glenda so because my three year old would like nothing more than to be Glenda then I have to honor her by saying good job Ariana Grande listen to her on WTF Ariana Grande.

1:12:16Yes. Which was okay. I got to say, it is odd listening to Mark Maron do his, and again, tremendous love and respect for what Mark Maron does in his show. I listen to so many hours of it. Those two talking is just weird to me. Let's just imagine that conversation. They weren't bad together, but it's just in my mind's eye. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Them looking at each other feels wrong. Yes. Okay. Actor in a leading role. Why don't you read the nominees? Adrian Brody, The Brutalist, Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown, Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing, Ray Fiennes, Conclave, Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice.

1:12:47Before you say anything, this is the one where I hadn't made up my mind. Interesting. And I think right now, just in my head, I know what I'm going to do. But I wanted to say that I've made my decision in my head before you. Do you want to say yours before I say mine? Sure. I think it's going to be Adrian Brody. I chose Adrian Brody as well. Yeah. Could be a surprise. Again, I said this on the show this week. 18 of the last 20 Best Actor winners at SAG went on to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards. That is a very powerful statistic. Very powerful. It traverses a long period of evolution within the Academy.

1:13:23Even though SAG doesn't always match up, Adrian Brody had been bulldozing his way towards this and was a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite until Sunday night. It certainly wouldn't stun me if Timothee Chalamet won, but it would surprise me. I think he's a little too young for what the Academy likes to do the only real precedent for this of course is Adrian Brody himself when he won in 2002 for The Pianist and I said my should win is Adrian Brody as well as much as I'm an admirer of Timothee Chalamet Adrian Brody, the movie is on his shoulders he is incredible, it is one of the great screen performances in recent history so we're aligned why were you agonizing?

1:14:05because I do I do think that Timothee Chalamet at SAG Awards, even though it doesn't affect the voting, it kind of reflects where that voting body, which is a very large voting body, is headed. I do think A Complete Unknown has some deep Academy support, just like a very traditional movie, a really likable performance. you know and the and the Glenn Close Olivia Colman and then Cade Blanchett Michelle Yeoh stuff like lives on in my head right like it it can change I'll give you an even more pertinent example I think which is we saw this last year with Killers of the Flower Moon versus Poor Things and how Emma Stone triumphed yes at the Oscars a lot of people will say bigger star tends to win at the Academy Awards in these races right Timothy Timothee Chalamet is the bigger star.

1:14:59That's true. Brody's been in the business longer, but Timothee Chalamet is a much bigger star than he is. Adrian Brody is on movies that are like straight to VOD. That's no disrespect to him. Just saying. Everybody has to make a living. Absolutely. Look at me now. I'm prostrating myself before people making predictions like an asshole. So I'm not better than him by any means. Do you think Olivia Colman was a bigger star than Glenn Close? I don't. I mean, she was in more people's homes. I think she was a more, weirdly, we didn't quite realize it at the time, but was actually more of a draw. You know what I'm saying when I say that?

1:15:35Yes. And I think particularly that was a reflection of the increasingly international group, too. Right. And I think Adrian Brody could benefit from that a bit. He could. That's kind of where my head's at with the Brutalist. Are there a lot of Europeans that are going to come out for this movie in the voting? I think so. That kind of needs to happen, right? And it needs to happen in another category, which we'll talk about momentarily. Let's talk about Actress in a Leading Role. The nominees are Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez, Mikey Madison for Anora, Demi Moore for The Substance, and Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here.

1:16:07One item of note, this collection of nominees have never faced off against each other through all the precursors. Fernanda Torres not present at the BAFTAs. There was, of course, the Golden Globes split, and not all these names were represented at SAG. So what does that mean? It means to me more. It's a sweep. Well, it wouldn't be a sweep because Mikey won at BAFTA. That's right. You're right. Okay. That was another one that threw me for a loop. Much like Timmy at SAG, Mikey Madison at BAFTA winning there, which was very odd, particularly because, and God, my brain is like an absolute tool right now.

1:16:46It's just flow. I can feel the gears clicking together. Anora didn't win anything else at BAFTA. Didn't win Best Picture. Didn't win Best Director. Didn't win Best Screenplay. Didn't win any of that stuff. which is stuff it had been winning everywhere else at the American guilds. And yet Mikey Madison won at BAFTA. So what the hell was that? Once again, BAFTA can be confusing, especially in the performer categories. The system is intricate. Okay. I also chose Demi Moore. Yeah. I think Mikey Madison should win. I do as well. She was wonderful. Is there any world where Fernanda Torres wins? I mean, sure.

1:17:19I think there is. Yes. Again, the Brazilian voters are powerful and passionate. It wouldn't be just them. And we see them and respect them. We do? I mean, I don't want to find out what happens. See them where? In a dark alley? I just would love to go to that house in Rio. Someone let me know if it's still there. Okay. This is just your fast five bias showing, I think. Isn't that the one in Rio? Yeah, but also, like, you don't want to go to Rio? Yeah, sure. I mean you don't like the beach that's the other thing I don't like the beach there is one part in I'm Still Here where Fernanda Torres' character just talks about like she needs to go to the beach or else it's not a real vacation and I was like truth you know and that's really the core text of that film that's really what it's about at the end of the day

1:18:13I'm excited to see this play out Demi Moore's giving great speeches I think you're overthinking it a tiny bit I picked any more. I know, but like even in this, I think you're like doing a little Get Out's Gonna Win over Shape of Water. But, you know, that's okay. Yeah. Thank you for bringing up The Shape of Water. I was thinking about it recently because Best Original Screenplay, The Shape of Water memorably did not win. Get Out won that year. Yeah. But then it went on to win Best Director and Best Picture. So what is, does that have, does that tell us anything about Enora this year? with any of the other categories?

1:18:51Like, is there a meaningful place like that where it could miss? I'm sort of vamping a bit before we get to Best Director and Best Picture, which of course are still actually quite difficult to predict at this stage. I think, I'm trying to think. The get out, the get out when, I sound so Southern when I say get out. The get out when. The get out when. You sound very Texans. Really horrifying. Wesley, you're very classic. We love Jordan Peele. Like, we like this. We would like this. It was a cool award. Right. And also like a great, important film. And that was particularly interesting because it was up against The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, which were number one and two in the race throughout the entire season.

1:19:32Right. And it's still triumphed over both of those movies. Is Anora not as cool as Jordan Peele? No, I think it's cool. I mean, you're right that it would normally be the cool win plus. And now it's also possibly just going to get others. Like, that's why I was kind of like, maybe The Substance has a shot here. just in terms of, but, you know, but I do think that they're going to give Demi Moore an Oscar so they don't need to throw at another bone, you know? The ingenue era has slowly been dying in Best Actress category. It's something that happened quite frequently in the 2010s and has not been happening nearly as much.

1:20:08So that's part of the reason why I was swayed to pick Demi Moore. Okay, directing. Who are the nominees? Sean Baker, Anora, Brady Corbet, The Brutalist, James Mangold, A Complete Unknown, Jacques O 'Bourgne, Odiard, Amelia Perez, Coralie Fargeat, The Substance. I've chosen Sean Baker. As have I. The DGA precedent is extremely strong. Agree. It's hard for me to fight against it. Okay. It does feel like a year with a directing Best Picture split. Oh, interesting. I'm not saying that that's what I'm doing. Okay. But you're emotionally preparing yourself for that? Doesn't it feel like one of those years?

1:20:42Doesn't this feel like a La La Land Moonlight kind of situation? Not really. What? I mean, sure. Anything, you know, anything could happen. Craziest Oscars. Yeah. But I also, again, I think that we're all, we're trying to make sense of our experience. Right. And so it's been a very confusing year for you. Yeah. And you haven't. Yeah. What do you mean? Well, you've been doing it for the whole six months. Oh, that's true. You know, I logged on in January. So you're just like, you're exhausted and you don't know which way is up. and you want to put some meaning around this roller coaster that you've been on.

1:21:21You got me. And I, meanwhile, I think that surprises could happen. I'm not 100 % confident, but it does seem like things have shifted into place a little bit. Even after? I could be wrong. I could be wrong. Yeah, I think if Edward Berger were here, and he is, of course, not nominated in this category, I would really be tantalized by the possibilities. If Brody doesn't win, does that mean it's more likely or less likely? If Brady doesn't win. No, if Adrian Brody... Oh, if Adrian Brody doesn't win. I was like, are we on the wrong first name basis with Mr. Corbet at this point? No, if Adrian Brody doesn't win, is it more likely or less likely that Brady Corbet wins Best Director?

1:22:10And with the idea that you want to give one to the Brutalist. I don't know if The Brutalist has that kind of appreciation, respectfully. I think that it has the people who absolutely love it and are voting for it. But I don't know if everyone's sitting there trying to disperse trophies fairly the way we are at the Alternative Academy. I think they're either, if Adrian Brody doesn't win in Best Actor, it's because there is not a brutalist hive in the Academy to correlate to the hive all around us. The boys didn't bleed through? Yeah, the boys didn't make it in. Okay. I could be wrong. I've chosen Coralie Farge for Should Win.

1:22:56Well, that's lovely. I've chosen Sean Baker from Anora. Coralie Farge, you know, first of all, just recognize the work of women. Yeah, you're so right. Thank you. This is a woman with a strong voice. Our leading voice. She was confronted by, how dare you? It's you and Justin Baldoni. It's not nice. He wants to lift women up, right? In their work. Sure, yeah. That's what he says. He had a whole podcast about it. He did have a whole podcast about it. I also have a whole podcast about it. Have you noticed? Coralie Farsha did exactly what she wanted to do. She was confronted by a studio who were like, don't do this.

1:23:34we don't want to put this movie out and she was like no this is what it is this is what I want to do it's a crazy idea I'm a super French lady and I need to I need my vision realized she should be rewarded for it I think that's what this award is all about on the flip side pretty much everybody in this category is good they're good in different ways Jacques Audiard's movie is an absolute nightmare but Jacques Audiard is a good director this is just not this is his least good film sure James Mangold speaking of WTF some of the best 90 minutes you'll ever get if you like listening to guys explain why and how they made a movie and what they were thinking about when they made a movie.

1:24:07Yeah. Just check out James Mangold talking. I think Mark asked three questions in 78 minutes. Which is, you know, that's an incredible power dynamic at work. It really is. And it was great. I really enjoyed it. I'm a huge Mangold fan. I enjoyed that film very much. Should we go to the final category? Let's do it. Have I taken like the suspense that you're trying to build out of this? No, there's no suspense. All right. Best Picture. Yes. The nominees in this category are Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Part 2, Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked.

1:24:47What are you choosing? I'm choosing Anora. I am as well. We gotta go with what we know. I am not feeling confident. No. It could go several different ways. And that is fun. I think it can only go one other way. You think it can only go conclave? I do. Okay. I think this is now fully a two-horse race. I think it's very hard to look at BAFTA and SAG Ensemble and say, that doesn't matter. It does matter. Okay. It matters a lot. They're going to intro the next ceremony with that. It's like right before Kristen Bell comes out. It's like, and I'm an actor. It'll just be the SAG Awards. It does matter.

1:25:30You're giving out really great taglines these days, along with your segues? I've just become a very confident broadcaster. I just, I don't know what else to say. I feel very Eddie Yee's with you in this format. That's beautiful. Speaking of these items. So you identify as a broadcaster? Absolutely. Always have. What do you think this is? I mean, you are correct. I don't know if broadcaster is where I would, is what I would think of. I'm a six foot tall white man with brown hair. Yeah. I am a broadcaster. Congratulations. You did it. I mean, I aspired to something and I achieved it. I actually never aspired to it.

1:26:05I'm just a nice mom who wants to go to the Rosewood Kona. You are not nice and barely a mom. It's only been three years. Two. Not one, but two. You have two children, but three years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. A mother of two. I'm a mother of two. A sort of sometimes nice mom of two. I'm nice to them. Who wants to go to Kona. That's how you identify? Put that in your Instagram bio. In my Instagram bio? a nice mom of two who wants to go to should I tag them you think that'll help with the invite at Four Seasons at Rosewood that might work I think Anora's gonna win I do as well I think Conclave could win I do as well I think if the Brutalist wins I'm gonna you're gonna lose it I'm gonna have a lot of fun okay that's great it's gonna be a funny episode it's gonna be real fun you're gonna see a really goofy boy okay I think the Brutalist should win I think the Brutalist you've made that quite clear it's just a crazy achievement okay that's my take You think Anora should win?

1:27:03Yeah, also a crazy achievement that we've sort of been taking for granted. I disagree. I think it's been widely celebrated by the industry for the last five months. I think it won the Palme d 'Or at the Cannes Film Festival. I think Sean Baker has been crowned. I have no problem with any of these things, but I don't think we're taking it for granted. It's really good. I'm not even sure if it's my favorite Sean Baker movie, honestly. What is your favorite Sean Baker movie? Probably Red Rocket. I think that's the funniest and the smartest and the most laden with subtextual ideas about our world, it's just not, it doesn't make you feel quite as good as Anora does at times.

1:27:39Right. You know, Anora has all this like big uplift in the first act. I just, I mean, I love Red Rocket. Simon Rex forever. Have you ever read, he did like a whole series of interviews promoting Red Rocket and there was one that was just about how he, he recommends, It was a strategist recommends thing. And he recommended those like toe spreaders. Do you know what those are? No. They're just like little gel things that you put between your feet to spread your toes. And he talks about how he thinks that's really important for grounding yourself. And I think about that a lot. So shout out to him.

1:28:15Just a nice mom of two. I think that Enora has as many of the ideas as his films, but then also manages to achieve both that kind of classic Hollywood cinema, like magic, and also is a very modern movie all at once. And just like the number of things that it achieves, like the very light touch is magical to me and hard to do. No denying that. It would be a very cool and very interesting best picture winner to talk about in the context of history and also in what it means right now for movies. This is a pretty small collection of movies, though, just in terms of how many people have engaged with these movies, what the kind of culture around them is.

1:29:04That's true. You know, Dune Part 2 is obviously a very big film. To a lesser extent, Wicked, still very popular. And then is the next biggest film behind that a complete unknown? Probably. Box office-wise? I mean, you can't underestimate the Conclave Peacock Run. Actually, you're right. Conclave, I think, all in made$100 million, which is really good. And then everyone I know is watching it at home and being like, huh, Conclave? Conclave wins, you say what?

1:29:34It never gets old. It's a great bet.

1:29:39Do you think my mom's watched Conclave? Do you remember this Christmas dinner? Yeah, I do. And my mom was like, I've read the book, so why do I need to watch the movie? Which is just the most my mom take of all time. Was it that Eileen had not seen it, so you shushed her so that she wouldn't spoil it? No, that was at, that was when she, that was the last visit. It was like, Cy was like two weeks old. I hadn't been able to see a movie. And my mom was like, I don't know how they're going to adapt this. Oh, you hadn't seen it. I hadn't seen it. And Chris and I had to be like, do not spoil the twist of Conclave to me.

1:30:10Oh, and she said she wasn't going to. And then at Christmas, she was like, I haven't seen it. Why would I see it? I read the book. I don't need to see the movie. And you and I were just like in my home at Christmas dinner having dedicated our lives to this. And I was like, cool. Thanks, Mom. Not a listener of the pod. I will say sure. You know? I guess. You'll say sure? Sure. That will be your response to the Conclave's victory at the 97th Academy Awards? Okay. Very good. I will say, I mean, it makes sense. It was a strange year. And in a way, I guess we're like wishful thinking it in a different way when the like ensemble, like vaguely, like recognizably like Oscar type movie about important European subjects, quote unquote, but with a commercial twist directed by a very well respected international filmmaker starring all your favorite guys wins.

1:31:08plus Isabel Rossellini, you know, it makes sense. And maybe we spent the last six months, you know, whining for nothing. Okay. That's what I think. What will you say? You'll just have to tune in Sunday night to find out. That was great work. Thank you. What kind of drink are you going to have during the live show? Well, I've been on a gin kick for the last year or so. Sean, welcome. But if I have gin and then podcasts, could be dicey situation. Okay. Gin makes me a little ornery. Sure. In a nice, in an amusing way. But I'm not sure that that's what I want to bring. So my gut tells me old-fashioned.

1:31:46Okay. Rye old-fashioned. If we're programming liquor to correspond to mood, I should probably have a margarita. Because you're a huge Amelia Perez fan? Yeah, and also because, you know, it's a representation of Mexico. That's what I'm saying. Exactly. It's accurate. Fully. Will you make the margarita for me? I haven't made a margarita in some time. Yeah. You make a good margarita and I don't really. I just stole my wife's recipe. Okay, right. I mean, Eileen makes all the good cocktails. She knows how to make good cocktails. I can study and work on it. I don't know if that's what I want. It does feel like more of an afternoon drink for me as well than...

1:32:27It does. It's, you know. It does. Not me. Just a giant tall glass of brown liquor at 2 p.m. I could have like a Campari soda. Live on YouTube. That would be very elegant. you know yeah you're just an elegant lady thank you so much nice mom of two thanks yeah great job today great job you feel good about this in the end we didn't vary that much I went pretty chalky I think because I'm afraid okay I didn't take a lot of risks well it's good to be honest yeah I think it's gonna come back to bite me I think I fucked up the shorts for sure okay you usually do animated feature I'm not I'm really confused about okay even though I don't think there's a wrong answer between the two right best picture if Conclave wins it's gonna be fucking weird it's gonna be fucking weird yeah but you know and in some ways it's just it's a green book year but that's I mean and that's rude to Conclave yeah it's just it just will feel like an off year yeah it will feel like an off year I agree with you okay any closing thoughts love the Oscars I'm excited I'm looking forward to the show Conan O 'Brien of course hosting they've already announced three and a half hours clips they were like they didn't say specifically I don't know what your like DVR calendar you know guide will say but they were like we're gonna try to bring it in by three and a half we know everyone wants three what can we do so will there be any movies that are in the Irishman over 10 situation like as the brutalist most likely to be hit by that probably though we predicted a couple I don't think we predicted a complete unknown win and it has one, two, three, four.

1:34:05Yeah. So, 0 for 8. That would be bad. Yeah, it'd be tough. They all worked really hard. But Monica Barbaro won the heart of Andrew Garfield, at least for one night only. So, who's the real winner? Mike King stands astride his kingdom once more. Thanks so much to Andrew, the man. Thanks to Jack Sanders as well. Thanks to our producer, Bobby Wagner, for his work on today's episode. Reminder, live on YouTube, this person, very excited to be with you. 2.30 p.m. 5.30 Eastern before the Academy Awards and then we will be coming to you as quickly as we can after the telecast on Sunday night here on The Big Picture.

1:34:42Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us here. Be nice in the comments. Amanda reads all of them. See you then.