Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

7:44Sean Fennessey:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Even in talking with Stephen this week, like thinking about the arc of his relationship to this genre is something that I think we'll spend some time on when we talk on Friday.

7:55Amanda Dobbins:And, you know, those movies just kind of shaped my taste and the genres that I'm into and how I think about the world. And American, if not global filmmaking for the past 30 years.

8:07Sean Fennessey:Yes, and I think also it's so fun. I mean, you know, I'm spoiling a conversation I haven't had yet, but like in 1977, Close Encounters is one of the more optimistic looks at this time, which is also concurring alongside, you know, Alan Pakula movies. And now I feel like as time has gone by, Spielberg is becoming more suspicious of how the world works. Less optimistic, less open-minded.

8:29Amanda Dobbins:And you can really track it over time shifting around 2000 or so. I think that's exactly right.

8:35Sean Fennessey:This century has been very much about some unease with how power operates. So very excited for this movie and very excited for Friday. Okay.

8:44Amanda Dobbins:Are we able to, when will we be able, those of us not in Austin, when will we be able to consume that conversation? Will we be able to?

8:51Sean Fennessey:Yes, on this feed. Okay. I don't know when that's going to be. Okay. Hopefully soon. We're working on it. Jack, when's that going to be? Don't spoil it. Okay.

9:02Amanda Dobbins:I just wanted to make sure that for everyone who can't be in Austin. I've gotten some emails being like, hey, so you're going to be in Austin. I will not be in Austin.

9:11Sean Fennessey:Do you wish you were?

9:13Amanda Dobbins:Listen, I had a great time the time that we went. I am really concerned about your turnaround time and Jack's turnaround time. And I'm just imagining the two of you in a van, like driving from Austin, like all the way back to Los Angeles overnight. Is it even, would you be able to make it like time wise? Yeah. Is it less than 48 hours, that drive?

9:33Sean Fennessey:I don't know. Less than 48, I think. I'm not worried. I've never been more locked in in my entire life.

9:39Amanda Dobbins:And then we're filming it. And then that's our first big picture documentary, which is the two of you in a bus trying to make it back for Oscars night.

9:45Sean Fennessey:Well, I can't speak for Jack, but assuming that I can get this cleared by TSA, I will be bringing my Mandalorian jetpack with me as a carry-on. And so I'll just, I'll fly back if I have to. Jack, we can't, we can't count on him. But there are people who can help out back here in the office in case you don't make it, right, Jack? Absolutely. Okay. The Academy Awards are happening on Sunday. Yeah, that's why I need you back. That's why you want to be back. Yeah, I'll be back. It'll be fine. Expectations for the show. Simple opening question. Do you think this will be a good show?

10:12Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

10:13Sean Fennessey:Okay.

10:13Amanda Dobbins:I do. Here's what we know. Limited. First of all, here's the most important thing. Conan O 'Brien, who hosted last year, is returning and is a wonderful host. We are acolytes of Conan. We grew up watching. I like the vibe. It's a good combination of safe pair of hands, old, skilled television presenter, and throwing a fun elbow in here and there, but never in a mean way, just in sort of a sharp, smart way. So I'm looking forward to that. We know that there will be two original song performances and two only.

10:51Sean Fennessey:Yes, the two good ones.

10:52Amanda Dobbins:The two good ones and the two good ones that have broader appeal. Golden is going to get its moment. Everyone in my house is really excited for that. My 18-month-old son can say Golden now. Wow. And he requested in the car, up, up, up. So it's really, we're late. But I think a lot of people and a lot of younger people would tune in for that. I agree.

11:16Sean Fennessey:It's got to come in the first 90 minutes of this podcast.

11:18Amanda Dobbins:And I also, like, I don't know if it'll be in the same tone as I'm Just Ken, but it does seem like one of those moments where you can use the spectacle of the show to bring some energy.

11:30Sean Fennessey:Do you think it will open the show? I feel like that's possible.

11:33Amanda Dobbins:It could.

11:34Sean Fennessey:Because if you think about the theme of the song and the lyrics of the song and the idea of like announcing.

11:40Amanda Dobbins:We're going up, up, up. It's our moment. Yeah. It feels like a good opening moment for the show.

11:47Sean Fennessey:Not unlike when, remember when Justin Timberlake sang the Trolls song at the beginning of the telecast like five years ago, which sounds ridiculous but that was actually a good way to open the show it gave us a lot of energy it was a famous person right up top yeah I do think they need to kick off like that sure

12:00Amanda Dobbins:I think that the performance of Golden will be superior to Justin Timberlake doing the Trolls song I hope so what's what's that song called is Anna Kendrick

12:10Sean Fennessey:it's called Let It Be yeah um it's a beautiful ballad thank you

12:16Amanda Dobbins:oh my god think about

12:17Sean Fennessey:can't stop the feeling

12:18Amanda Dobbins:can't stop oh it's so annoying I can hear it right now uh Every once in a while after I'm listening to like good kids music, Spotify algorithm tries to give me that song. It's a hard no for me. My children will not learn about that.

12:34Sean Fennessey:We've created an incredible demarcation line around trolls. No trolls content has come into our home. It's not. I'm not a fan.

12:42Amanda Dobbins:I think that's great.

12:43Sean Fennessey:One of the weirdest episodes we've ever done was when me, you and Rob Harvilla talked about the trolls movie during COVID. I have completely forgotten everything uttered. Oh yeah, which was like about Poptimism? It was. It was Trolls 2.

12:52Amanda Dobbins:Uh-huh. Trolls World Tour. That was Trolls World Tour. Yes. Which is another, it's one of the rural jurors. Trolls World Juror. Hard, just very hard for me to say. I also learned that Marlboro is hard for me to say. Marlboro. Yes, because a woman came into my Pilates class in a Marlboro Reds sweatshirt. And I was like, this is sick.

13:09Sean Fennessey:It's really funny because I think of you as a gal, a young gal, who like really went to finishing school, you know? Thank you, yeah. But for whatever reason, there's some consonants that are a struggle.

13:21Amanda Dobbins:I'm an American. But elocution, that's my skill. The R's are very challenging for me. And like across languages. Interesting. Yeah, I don't know.

13:30Sean Fennessey:Maybe that's why you went French and not Spanish. The rolling R would be a challenge.

13:34Amanda Dobbins:I mean, I can roll it, but like the French, like the, you know, it's really tough. That's good. That'll be our thumbnail.

13:41Sean Fennessey:That was disgusting.

13:42Amanda Dobbins:Yeah, well, listen.

13:45Sean Fennessey:Back to the show. I think it's possible that Golden could open the show.

13:49Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

13:49Sean Fennessey:I Lied to You feels like a big centerpiece in the middle of the show.

13:52Amanda Dobbins:Right, and Miles Caton will be performing.

13:54Sean Fennessey:Yes, he will. Along many other, I think Brittany Howard will be a part of that as well. Sounds like Jamie Lawson will be on stage during that as well. So I think it'll be a pretty fun...

14:02Amanda Dobbins:Is Misty Copeland confirmed?

14:03Sean Fennessey:She is confirmed.

14:05Amanda Dobbins:Which is an amazing subtweet because in addition to Misty Copeland just being one of the most celebrated American ballerinas, she was also one of the first people to pose in a Marty Supreme jacket.

14:19Sean Fennessey:Wow. Interesting. Yeah. And didn't she used to date F1 driver? Who's the most famous F1 driver in the world? Lewis Hamilton. Thank you. Did they date?

14:29Amanda Dobbins:I don't know about that. Who Lewis Hamilton is quote unquote dating or not dating, it just seems a little based on who needs photo ops at a given time.

14:39Sean Fennessey:I just mean Misty has a unique relationship to a lot of the Best Picture nominees this year. Because Lewis Hamilton is a producer of F1. Yes.

14:45Amanda Dobbins:I have Googled Misty Copeland Lewis Hamilton and I'm not finding any results. I spoke then. But you know what Misty Copeland has done? Be amazing at ballet.

14:54Sean Fennessey:Got it. I'm excited to see her. Yeah. Presumably she's not like playing the banjo. She's going to dance during that performance. I would hope. And then during the commercial break right after that I will be performing Train Dreams from the film Train Dreams. So we'll go live on IG with that. Right Jack? That'll be good? 100%. Okay cool. Other things we should expect. You know what? I was on Bill Simmons' podcast this week talking about the show the telecast. We talked a bit about the in memoriam, a longtime fascination of his, and we talked about what they might do. And he pitched an interesting idea, which I hope they do, which is, you know, we had speculated that there might be an entire moment dedicated to Robert Redford because we know Barbara Streisand is going to perform presumably memory.

15:35Sean Fennessey:We heard. It was reported. It was speculated with some knowledge. Right. But he said maybe there should be four or five individual breakout moments for Robert Redford, Diane Keaton, Robert Duvall, Gene Hackman, Rob Reiner. We have a number of very venerated veterans of Hollywood who passed away in the last 12 months. I think that'd be cool. I think that'd be appropriate.

15:57Amanda Dobbins:The number of people who are connected to those individuals who have been reported to be coming back to the Oscars suggests that it would be at least individual moments as opposed to being cramped altogether, just from a time perspective.

16:14Sean Fennessey:I agree. I would just, I know you don't care, but I would love to see like a real clip reel, like a two and a half minute clip reel for each person. That is just like, here is the totality of these people's, all these people who lived into their 70s and 80s, you know, who worked for 50 years. This is what they put on screen.

16:29Amanda Dobbins:Let's be clear about my feelings about clip reels. I think I don't mind and even enjoy a well-edited montage, which is what you are describing. What I think is fruitless and often counterproductive are the four second acting bites that show up of people just screaming at the top of their lungs contextless before. That's not acting. That's not communicating what these performers did so well. We agree to disagree.

16:59Sean Fennessey:I have no idea what you're talking about. I think that's insane. Runtime of the show. How long do you think we're going to be?

17:07Amanda Dobbins:We were doing this ourselves a bit because we were trying to figure out when we would go live on YouTube.

17:11Sean Fennessey:That's right.

17:15Amanda Dobbins:337.

17:17Sean Fennessey:Last year's telecast was three hours and 50 minutes. It was.

17:20Amanda Dobbins:Wow.

17:21Sean Fennessey:Will this be longer? You think this will be shorter?

17:25Amanda Dobbins:Well, how many performances did they do last year?

17:27Sean Fennessey:I think around the same number. Yeah.

17:30Amanda Dobbins:They've been scaling it back, which is good. Okay, so 350.

17:32Sean Fennessey:Almost four hours for what I would describe as a slightly more subdued Oscars than this year's will be. I think there's a lot of energy around the race this year. I don't know if the ratings are going to be higher, and I'll ask you about that in a second. But it does feel like One Battle and Sinners are two very widely seen movies relative to something like Enora, which dominated last year. So, I don't know. Four Hours feels in play. But they also added a category, too. That's a good point, Jack. I know there's 24 categories to give out. Okay, then we're going to have to start thinking about, like, snacks pacing over the course of the night.

18:04Sean Fennessey:I want to do Sugarfish. Can we just do Sugarfish?

18:07Amanda Dobbins:Oh, for dinner? Yeah, absolutely. But then this is four hours.

18:11Sean Fennessey:Yeah.

18:12Amanda Dobbins:And then you got to keep the blood sugar up.

18:16Sean Fennessey:We'll get a mojito going for you. Don't worry. Ratings, up or down? I think they were slightly down last year. So where did they go this year?

18:25Amanda Dobbins:I mean, no one's ever gotten richer by predicting that the Oscars ratings would go up.

18:30Sean Fennessey:You're right. But Golden and Sinners are two big flashing check this out thing going on.

18:38Amanda Dobbins:I agree. I mean, I think it's going to honestly be flat. Yeah, like a matter of decimal points. Yeah. I think you're right.

18:47Sean Fennessey:I don't know. It's kind of a quiet time in sports right now. And that's something else I was thinking about. There's not a big HBO Sunday night show at the moment. It's not competing with really anything right now. Okay. Especially if the USA is eliminated from the World Baseball Classic. Did you see what happened last night in the World Baseball Classic?

19:04Amanda Dobbins:I did not know that the World Baseball Classic was happening.

19:07Sean Fennessey:What an absolute fiasco. They lost to Italy 8-6. The United States manager believed they had already moved on to the elimination round. So there's a suggestion that maybe he set the lineup based on the fact that they thought that they had already advanced. And now based on the outcome, I'm sure the outcome of Italy and Mexico will have happened by the time people listen to this. But anyway, just as a baseball fan last night, I was like, what the hell is going on here?

19:28Amanda Dobbins:Who's on the U.S. team?

19:29Sean Fennessey:Well, quite a few people. Yeah, the United States. Bryce Harper. Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, some major stars.

19:35Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

19:35Sean Fennessey:Neither of whom came through in a big spot last night. Challenging times. Anyway, moving on. Here's an interesting precursor question to our predictions. How many Oscars will Sinners win?

19:52Amanda Dobbins:I have an answer based on my predictions. Do you want me to give that? Or that seems like spoiling it.

19:58Sean Fennessey:more or less than two? More. More or less than three? More. Okay. What about how many Oscars will one battle after another win?

20:06Amanda Dobbins:I didn't count. But I did sort of in the shower this morning. I don't know an exact number.

20:12Sean Fennessey:More or less than three?

20:13Amanda Dobbins:More.

20:14Sean Fennessey:More or less than four?

20:15Amanda Dobbins:More.

20:16Sean Fennessey:Intriguing.

20:17Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

20:17Sean Fennessey:Okay.

20:18Amanda Dobbins:My theory, and maybe this is, you know, a good segue, we were very anxious last night. This is an exciting year, a really cool year, And also for two people who don't like to be wrong in public or private, a vexing year. And so we were texting last night at like 945 about various categories in which we still hadn't made a decision in which we didn't know what to do. And we both shared the sentiment that it's just it's not adding up in a way that makes sense to us.

20:53Sean Fennessey:That's right.

20:54Amanda Dobbins:The aggregate is not aggregating. The balance, as you said, is not balancing. And I think some of that is because we use our long, you know, our decades of Oscar nerdism and what the Academy has done before and how these races usually play out to shape how we make our predictions. And I think in a few, in about half the categories, that's useful. And otherwise, I think it's going to be a really different year. And I think a lot of the norms that we expect and a lot even of the precursors or the bellwethers are wrong or shifting you another way. That's it. So I had to make my own piece with what my ballot looks like as a whole.

21:42Amanda Dobbins:Because at 945 last night when I was like, I really need to start my wind down, which is like an hour of no, you know, I can't be this anxious about it. When I was looking at it, I was like, this doesn't, there's not an internal logic here. According to my internal logic of what the Oscars should be and what a ballot should be and what the quote unquote Academy does. and I had to let it go, you know?

22:08Sean Fennessey:I admire that. I have obviously, I think you and I are similarly organized in our mind, but I think the way that I live my life is even more organized. And I'm a spreadsheet person. I'm a precedential person. I'm very rooted in the history of the Oscars, as much the recent history as the distant history. And we're going to talk about the distant history today because of some of the things that could come up based on some of these collisions. and I'm married to an actuary. You know, her father is a math professor. Her sister is a math professor. Like I'm very interested in the sort of statistics and the data and the history of this, but also that there is feelings involved in this kind of voting.

22:48Sean Fennessey:And this year, the war, so to speak, is between vibes and precedent and what the two trains colliding. And they are represented in some ways in two distinct films. I wouldn't say one film is a vibes film and one film is a data film, but just what's gone on in the last six months. And we've been talking about this for a very long time. And I feel justified in how much time we've devoted to this stuff because it's been interesting this year. For the first time in a while, it's been really, really interesting. I find myself right before the predictions feeling not very brave. That's what I'll say.

23:22Amanda Dobbins:Okay. I am the child of two lawyers.

23:26Sean Fennessey:Mm-hmm.

23:28Amanda Dobbins:So for me, precedent is just something that keeps you from having fun all of the time. It is a legal tool to limit the possibility of life. Mm-hmm. And I do also think that some of what informed my thinking is that in the past few years, as the Academy has gotten bigger and more international and just the sheer numbers and the number of people, it moves less like one solid group of people. And in fact, it just has become more chaotic and it's more and more different types of voters and interests and preferences. Yes.

24:09Sean Fennessey:The homogeneity has been washed out of the Academy, at least relative to what it was 15 years ago.

24:15Amanda Dobbins:Yes. And that's certainly true in terms of race, nationality, gender-ish, age-ish, you know, like they're all of them. I was wondering how it's still predominantly like older white people. Let's be real.

24:31Sean Fennessey:How many, this is a random thing I was thinking about last night. How many Gen Z members of the Academy do you think there are? Zero? A hundred? Just a guess.

24:44Amanda Dobbins:is Jennifer Lawrence Gen Z no no who are the youngest people Emma Stone is not Gen Z is Rachel Zegler in the academy did she get added when she that's a very good Rachel Zegler are you in the academy academy member let's google this right I would guess fewer than 100 and I bring this up for a reason um she's presented but I don't know whether probably not I would guess

25:09Sean Fennessey:You'd be surprised the number of people who have done a lot of work who are not in the Academy. In fact, I know a nominee who's not in the Academy, and he's going to be on this show later this year.

25:19Amanda Dobbins:Oh, exciting.

25:19Sean Fennessey:Interesting fact. I bring this up because Oscar discourse. Is it Steven Spielberg? It's not Steven Spielberg, I assure you. Steven Spielberg, for the record, won the Irving Thalberg Award, the honorary award that is not given out every year. in 1987. 39 years ago, he won the honorary Oscar.

25:41Amanda Dobbins:Before Schindler's List in Jurassic Park.

25:43Sean Fennessey:Yes, before he won Best Director. That's crazy town. He wasn't even 40. Anyway, I ask this because the discourse is very noisy this year. And there's a lot of discussion about what's actually happening. And it does feel like there is a flood of people who have only been paying attention to the Oscars for, say, 25 years or 22 years instead of 50 years. And that could be an advantage or it could be a disadvantage in terms of what's really happening with the race right now. How much of what's happening is real or how much of it is online? Yes. We don't know. We don't know. We stand athwart history saying, I don't know, but I'm going to try to make a prediction.

26:21Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

26:21Sean Fennessey:So let's start.

26:23Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

26:23Sean Fennessey:24 categories. We're going to go through every single one. I figured we'd start with some general individual film categories. It's fun. You've paced this well. Thank you. The first category is animated feature film. The nominees are as follows. Arco, Elio, K-pop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie, or the character of Rain, and Zootopia 2. Will win and should win.

26:45Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

26:46Sean Fennessey:You can go first, and maybe we'll alternate back and forth.

26:48Amanda Dobbins:Okay, great. Will win, K-pop Demon Hunters, and should win. And I have now seen all five, and I just want to let you know that my version of Hell is watching Little Amelie or the character of Rain with a four-year-old who just keeps me like, who is that?

27:04Sean Fennessey:I told you my story about this. I was didn't ask a single question.

27:07Amanda Dobbins:So now when you rent them, they're both both Arco and Little Amelie are available to rent, which we did. But we rented the dub versions.

27:15Sean Fennessey:Oh, I see.

27:16Amanda Dobbins:Will Ferrell is in the Arco dub version. I was like, hey, I mean, many famous people are. But there was a that was a voice moment. Anyway, no, my son, bless him, fully became Jesse Buckley in Hamnet at the end of. But like being like, what's going on? for Little Amelie and it was a true nightmare. Did you watch Arco? No, he went to bed and then I watched it. I think he might have liked it.

27:40Sean Fennessey:I think it would play Alice didn't watch it either. Yeah, anyway,

27:43Amanda Dobbins:should win K-pop Demon Hunters which is dynamite.

27:47Sean Fennessey:It's a banger, yeah. We match on that. Those were both of my picks as well. It is, I guess, kind of interesting that Zootopia 2 didn't make any kind of late-breaking push here because... Because it stinks. No, I just disagree. And it's also really, it's really liked and it's a huge hit.

28:02Amanda Dobbins:That's true. Listen, my son wanted to buy the snake bucket. That doesn't make it art.

28:08Sean Fennessey:I was talking about animated movies for the rest of the year and there's not really a Zootopia 2 coming in the fall. There is a Disney original movie called Hexed. Okay. You up on this? No. Is it about witches? One assumes. I hope so. I don't know. A Disney original in that Thanksgiving slot though. Interesting. Okay, let's go to international feature film. The nominees are as follows. from Brazil, The Secret Agent, from France, it was just an accident, from Norway, Sentimental Value, from Spain, Surat, and from Tunisia, the voice of Hind Rajab. Did you struggle with this one at all?

28:41Amanda Dobbins:This is one of my highlighted, am I going to change it last minute, but I'm not.

28:45Sean Fennessey:Okay, I'll go first. Yes. Will win Sentimental Value, should win The Secret Agent. We match. Okay, so what informed that thinking?

28:53Amanda Dobbins:Sentimental Value is nominated in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original screenplay and with four acting nominations. People really like that movie. We spent a lot of time on Oscar and Am's Morning being like sentimental value wave, like here it really comes and I think that just the sheer numbers of it propel it. Secret Agent is nominated in Best Picture and also Bagnamora is nominated for Best Actor and it's nominated for Casting. So there is like appreciation for it, but But I think sentimental value, I mean, it has more nominations. And also, if you're imagining the person who actually sits down, who hadn't seen these movies before nominations, sits down and watches both of them, I think that sentimental value is going to be an easier ask.

29:43Sean Fennessey:I think so, too.

29:45Amanda Dobbins:But I feel like I am betraying myself and Brazil. I am betraying both myself and the nation of Brazil.

29:51Sean Fennessey:I think this is a coin flip. Yeah. Joachim Trier, a previous nominee. I think that helps him. I think he has campaigned very effectively. It's extremely well-liked. If you go through the list of nominees' favorite movies of the year, a lot of them you'll hear say sentimental value. That's an interesting indicator of something. I think you're right that the raft of nominations that it has is notable. They don't have a lot of wins. They have not won a lot of precursors. You've got that Stellan Skarsgård Golden Globe win is very memorable, but there's not a lot of victories for this movie over that period of time.

30:23Sean Fennessey:So it's not as though it has like a dramatic advantage over the secret agent. Is there any part of you that thinks there could be like a wild, it was just an accident in a voice of Henry Job moment here?

30:34Amanda Dobbins:Anything could happen. But I, you know, when all else fails, when you don't know, I, like you, do ground myself in the numbers.

30:42Sean Fennessey:Yeah. The only thing that crossed my mind was just it's been such a dramatic and traumatic six weeks in Iran. and, you know, first the protests and then the awful murder of protesters and then the strikes from Israel in the United States. And there's just so much unrest in that space and so many people who are so angry about what's happening in that part of the world right now that I don't know if that could boost a movie like this. I mean, it's so strange to conflate real world consequences.

31:10Amanda Dobbins:But listen, I mean, it has been an escalating six weeks for sure, but none of that is new and it did not. and certainly not in the last six months. And Jafar Panahi won the, and it was just an accident, won the Palm and then has been pretty much blanked throughout. Yeah. Was threatened, you know, with imprisonment when he returns to Iran and it still didn't get him. Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, certainly the U.S. has escalated in absolutely terrible ways. And Oscar voters do like to vote for some of their, vote their politics through that. But I don't know. it just doesn't seem to have caught on.

31:49Sean Fennessey:I think you're right.

31:50Amanda Dobbins:Amazing movie.

31:51Sean Fennessey:I'm a huge fan. I would be really excited

31:52Amanda Dobbins:exciting if it won.

31:53Sean Fennessey:This is a good collection of nominees. This category is sometimes a bit wonky and I really like it this year. Probably in part because Neon just plugged four of the five nominees. Documentary feature film. The nominees are The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and The Perfect Neighbor.

32:11Amanda Dobbins:Not my favorite group of nominees.

32:13Sean Fennessey:We talked about it last week on the show. Will win The Perfect Neighbor, should win The Alabama Solution. That's exactly what I had. Yeah. I would say it's kind of a mild enthusiasm for The Alabama Solution, too.

32:24Amanda Dobbins:I think that The Alabama Solution is competent and important. Agreed. And furthers really important work that, you know, a lot of people are already doing in an additive way. The Perfect Neighbor we talked about on the documentary episode, it's certainly the most widely seen, the buzziest. You know, it was distributed by Netflix. I guess, I mean, it's interesting and the emotions and conversations that it elicits are worth further discussion. We both felt a little strange about it.

32:58Sean Fennessey:I don't think that the voters are going to feel as strange about it. I'm not ruling out Mr. Nobody against Putin. There is a long track record of Russia-related films winning in this category. You can think about Icarus. You can think about what is Matoslav Chernov's previous film before 20 ,000 Meters to Androvka? 20 Days of Mary Paul. 20 Days of Mary Paul, yeah. There is, I think there are certain sectors of the world that this category sometimes speaks to. And it's not always, there's some consistency there. And I think also Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a watchability factor. that is maybe behind The Perfect Neighbor, but is probably in second place in this category.

33:45Sean Fennessey:Yeah. And so I won't be shocked. I don't think I'll be thrilled if it wins, but I won't be shocked.

33:52Amanda Dobbins:Pasha standing on stage at the Oscars while everyone else is still in the most polluted town in Russia. Great.

33:58Sean Fennessey:Not ideal. I didn't realize that that film was also the submission by Denmark for international feature film, which is kind of fascinating about you because of the origins of the filmmakers. Anyhow, we'll see how that one shakes out. Okay, original score. The nominees are Druskin Fendrix for Begonia Alexander Desplat for Frankenstein Max Richter for Hamnet Johnny Greenwood for One Battle After Another and Ludwig Goranson for Sinners Wait, is it?

34:24Amanda Dobbins:Oh yeah, it's your turn It's my turn

34:27Sean Fennessey:Will win Ludwig Goranson for Sinners I'm zagging Druskin Fendrix for Begonia

34:32Amanda Dobbins:Just a score I like We agree on Will win Ludwig Goranson for Sinners and should win is Daniel LaPatton for Marty Supreme.

34:40Sean Fennessey:Okay, well, that's not really how this works.

34:43Amanda Dobbins:This is our show. We can do what we want.

34:46Sean Fennessey:Okay, if that's where you want to be, understand.

34:49Amanda Dobbins:I mean, you can do that for every category. I'm doing it for this one. Okay, fair enough. The score branch is on notice.

34:56Sean Fennessey:What does that mean? Like, what are the consequences of that? What are you going to do to them? You're going to hurt them?

35:02Amanda Dobbins:No.

35:03Sean Fennessey:You're going to scold them publicly?

35:05Amanda Dobbins:Yes, I'm going to scold them publicly and I'm going to keep needling it.

35:09Sean Fennessey:Do you think you can make change within the Academy? Do you think you're possible?

35:13Amanda Dobbins:I think I'm 41 years of proof that you absolutely cannot.

35:17Sean Fennessey:What do you mean? Here you are, shining. Okay.

35:22Amanda Dobbins:Here's the next category is evidence that there is nothing I can do, even though this will be a deserving winner.

35:29Sean Fennessey:So in the race for how many Oscars does Sinners get, this would be the first one.

35:33Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

35:34Sean Fennessey:Okay, original song. Here are the nominees. Dear Me from Diane Warren, Relentless. Remember when I told you that I saw every single one of the Oscar nominees? I lied. I have not seen this, and I will not see it. Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters. I lied to you from Sinners. Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde. Train Dreams from Train Dreams.

35:52Amanda Dobbins:Mm-hmm.

35:53Sean Fennessey:What do you got?

35:54Amanda Dobbins:Will win, Golden. Should win, Golden.

35:57Sean Fennessey:Did you consider I lied to you for should win?

36:00Amanda Dobbins:no because at 7 55 this morning uh the only way i got my son's shoes on his feet was promising a golden dance party at the end of it and then everybody joined in the baby me i still don't know all the words but up up up listen that shit hits can't argue with that also both both i lied to you and Golden obey the rule of it is a song that is like material to the film itself as opposed to just being tacked on at the end.

36:32Sean Fennessey:Agreed.

36:33Amanda Dobbins:So I like both of them. This is a rare good year for a category that for the most part exists to take Oscars away from Dua Lipa.

36:44Sean Fennessey:I think this is one of the only super locks of the whole night.

36:47Amanda Dobbins:Okay. I hope so because I explained to my four-year-old that this song was going to win a trophy. And now every time he listens to it, he says, win the trophy. They win the trophy. So there's going to be a lot. We're going to learn about loss on Sunday, if not.

37:04Sean Fennessey:Well, I mean, honestly, this is just great for the Academy. This is how you get little kids hooked on the Oscars. I've been taking Alice to the Academy Museum and we go into that room where all of the Oscars are on display. and then there's a room where you see a series of acceptance speeches and you see some of the outfits, the gowns, some of the envelopes that people opened. There's a way to kind of build some intrigue for young people around these awards. I think that's how I got started, was just kind of getting interested in what my mom was watching on TV on that Sunday night every year and trying to figure out why that mattered.

37:35Sean Fennessey:So this is a way to say, hey, this is something I should watch next year when it's like Diane Warren alone singing a song as the opening song to the show. it's not going to be as effective, but this year they should take advantage of it. Okay.

37:45Amanda Dobbins:Wait, did you officially give your pick for that?

37:48Sean Fennessey:Yes. Will win.

37:50Amanda Dobbins:Okay, I'm just making sure. Listen. Golden should win. You're the spreadsheet, man. Let's get it, you know. We have to use this against you later on.

37:59Sean Fennessey:If Golden doesn't win, I'll be very surprised.

38:01Amanda Dobbins:Me too.

38:01Sean Fennessey:Okay. Next category. Let's go to the shorts. The dreaded shorts.

38:07Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

38:07Sean Fennessey:You watched all the shorts? I did. Did you like any of the shorts? I did

38:13Amanda Dobbins:there was one that and it's in our next category okay that I was deeply moved by okay and and it's in my should win so I can it's is it your turn or it's your turn so you read the nominees I'll read the nominees yeah

38:28Sean Fennessey:for best documentary short the nominees are all the empty rooms armed only with the camera the life and death of Brent Renaud children no more were and are gone the devil is busy and perfectly a strangeness Yes. Okay, so I have will win all the empty rooms and should win perfectly estrangeness.

38:48Amanda Dobbins:Okay, whatever. Like that's, they, you know, put some cameras on a donkey. I enjoyed that. Or put cameras on many donkeys. Here's the thing.

38:56Sean Fennessey:I would like for the doc branch to change their conception of what good documentary is. And good documentary is not always issues-oriented journalism. That's not only what documentary can be. The fact that this film, Perfectly Estrangeness, which is this sort of like exploratory nature documentary about wildlife living near some sort of astronomy space. I thought it was really interesting and fun to watch in a way that is different from all these films. Now, this is a pretty good category, I thought. I thought the nominees were pretty solid this year. But they bear a similar tonal weight that the best doc category has this year.

39:37Sean Fennessey:They do.

39:38Amanda Dobbins:I think picking the... wordless donkey documentary, which was like experiential. That would be fine on the side. That would be fine in a museum, you know, and you'd wander into a room and you'd be like, now I have the perspective of a donkey. I disagree. I also have Will Win, All the Empty Rooms. Should Win, The Devil is Busy. Okay. Which is, as you were saying, in some ways, an issues-driven documentary. It's about, you know, it follows a Planned Parenthood clinic in Atlanta. And it's directed by Keita Ganbeer, who also directed The Perfect Neighbor and Crystal in Hampton. And it's exploring the setbacks, the rollbacks in women's health care and, yes, abortion, following the overturning of Roe v.

40:29Amanda Dobbins:Wade and what that looks like for a clinic on the ground. So sure.

40:33Sean Fennessey:Focus tightly on a security officer within the space.

40:36Amanda Dobbins:But here's the thing. It is about all those things. It is about issues. But it is about a woman named Tracy, who is the head of security. And I was knocked out by Tracy. And it's one of the examples of finding the right subject and finding someone who illuminates. and what Tracy illuminates about the day-to-day life at this clinic is important and outrage, you know, outrageous and frustrating. And she's the first person there in the morning and she has to make sure that all of the cars that are people waiting are, you know, people who have appointments and not people with guns. And she's like, make sure you check the bags.

41:15Amanda Dobbins:You know, The day-to-day or hour-to-hour risk that she puts herself in is quite frightening, but it's really just the way that she goes about doing her job and doing her job despite the impossibility that the government and America and everything has set out for her and the lack of funding and just the specifics and the care and the matter-of-factness. She calls everyone guests. She puts out the... I just... I was so, so moved by her. And I'm like, I don't know if this film deserves an Oscar. Tracy deserves much more than an Oscar. But I've thought about it every day since. Well, that's the thing.

41:58Sean Fennessey:I mean, that's an issue and something that feels very personal to you. And that is often what this category and these kinds of categories do.

42:06Amanda Dobbins:But it's not about the issue. It's about this person. Like, there are many of these people working...

42:10Sean Fennessey:But they're within the context of something that doesn't matter to you.

42:12Amanda Dobbins:I guess. But sure. But like in health care, in education, there are many people who have like so much going on in their own lives and they just like do their job and try to help other people. And they are never, never given a spotlight. And like that is genuinely what it is. There are many Tracys in the world. They don't all get documentaries. I thought she was wonderful.

42:33Sean Fennessey:I won't argue with that. All the empty rooms, we should say, which is the odds on favor to win in this category. It's also a very emotional film. It follows Steve Hartman, the CBS News correspondent, as he travels with a photographer embarking on a journey to memorialize the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings and speak to the families and create this kind of news media piece that represents this, you know, awful wave of 70 years of school shootings that we've had that, you know, primarily takes place in this country. and the rage and the despair that kind of comes across those two things.

43:10Sean Fennessey:Just a handful of Oscar voters I've talked to, this movie resonated very deeply with them. It does seem like this is likely to, and this is also a Netflix film, so it is very easily accessible as well. You never know with the shorts. It's often very hard to predict, but this one feels right. The Devil is Busy and Armed Only with a Camera are currently available on HBO Max.

43:32Amanda Dobbins:Right.

43:33Sean Fennessey:Children Know More is... Which is not available to view on for free. Which I just don't understand. And Perfectly Strangeness is coming to the Criterion channel, I believe, next month. Either this month or maybe it's available right now. Maybe available right now.

43:47Amanda Dobbins:Is it Criterion or is it Canopy?

43:49Sean Fennessey:It may be on Canopy, but it's on the Criterion channel.

43:52Amanda Dobbins:Yes, you're right. Criterion. Okay.

43:54Sean Fennessey:Live action short film. It's been a little while since I've seen these. So you'll have to help remind me a little bit, but you'll be able to predict first.

44:03Amanda Dobbins:I've now reverted back to I don't like the shorts categories.

44:06Sean Fennessey:Understood.

44:07Amanda Dobbins:Tracy had her moment. I had some time for a couple of these. Okay.

44:12Sean Fennessey:Live action short film the nominees are Butcher's Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's period drama, The Singers, and Two People Exchanging Saliva. I believe Will Wynn is Two People Exchanging Saliva. I think that's my should win. I think this and The Singers I both thought were kind of interesting. I didn't love either of these films but I liked them enough. I did not enjoy the other three. And I found a couple of them to be like borderline bad.

44:44Amanda Dobbins:Yes. Jane Austen's period drama, Get Out of Here.

44:47Sean Fennessey:It was horrible, I thought.

44:48Amanda Dobbins:Well, it's just, it's like an SNL sketch.

44:50Sean Fennessey:Yes.

44:51Amanda Dobbins:But one of the not as funny ones stretched out over 12 minutes. Couldn't agree more. I don't care about it. You know, and with like a real like, girl boss, let's talk about it. Not my type of humor. I have Will win Two People Exchanging Saliva and should win the best first feature Oscar. Like, let's just, let's get out of this. Let's make a first feature. And because this is the category where it's like people are trying out what they can do.

45:19Sean Fennessey:Well, Two People Exchanging Saliva is really interesting. This is also the odds-on favorite in this category. It's a film, you know, it's kind of an absurdist romance set in a world where kissing is illegal and slaps in the face our currency. And it's an unusual movie. It feels very Yorgos Lanthimos. It's black and white. It's a French film. It's gotten some very strong reviews. The woman who is the star of Ali Abbas's Holy Spider is the star of this movie. Her name is Zahra Amir Ebrahimi. And she's really good in the movie. it does feel like a like a road test for a feature and it felt like it could be a feature and maybe will be a feature right and to your point about the best first feature this is what I'm saying it's the most fully formed film yeah and there is an art to being able to make a 14 minute narrative feature that works really well I didn't really feel like these other nominees did a great job but The Singers is really more of like a mood piece it's about like a sing-off in a bar amongst a group of men and it's really more like a stylistic accomplishment to me.

46:26Sean Fennessey:It looks very beautiful. The performances are interesting. It doesn't have the same here's what we're trying to say about the world quality. It's just kind of nice to watch for 13 minutes and then you move on with your day. Butcher's Thane I think is very heavy and at times a little heavy handed.

46:43Amanda Dobbins:Correct.

46:45Sean Fennessey:And a friend of Dorothy, I thought it was nice for Miriam Margulies to just have a moment like that who's had a very long career I think of her most as the angry every mother who shoots, accidentally shoots her son who is falling off of a roof in the film Magnolia. An actress who's been around for a very long time. So it's a nice platform for her, but you know, I think two people exchanging saliva and the singers are at least kind of interesting. And was this an easy pick for you?

47:15Amanda Dobbins:I think the two people exchanging saliva has enough, as you said, it's the quote unquote most mature or it has the most like grabby look at me doing cinema stuff. You know, it is in it looks very nice. It's in black and white. It has a lot of strange ideas. You want to try to figure out what's going on. So it made a lot of sense. It's being distributed by The New Yorker. So I heard from Madison at The New Yorker after my short slides. Wow. Great humor. I'm excited for Madison. Thank you. You know what? And thank you to The New Yorker for at least making these available.

47:52Sean Fennessey:Agreed. That is a nice thing. If you're going to do this, these movies should at least be widely available. Let's do the last shorts category. It's Best Animated Short. The nominees are Butterfly, a.k.a. Papillon, Forever Green, The Girl Who Cried Pearl's Retirement Plan, and The Three Sisters.

48:09Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

48:10Sean Fennessey:Now, you're not historically an animation person? I'm I'm learning and I'm growing. You are learning and growing. Not a short person either. Yes. What did you make of this crop?

48:20Amanda Dobbins:There were some things that were nice to look at. And I found myself, I'm not an animation person, but I'm heavy in illustrated children's books right now. And spending a lot of time with the varying styles of artwork in those books. Because we recently tried to switch to chapter books and not except being like, well, so where are the pictures? So I found myself responding to the animation more as art and more to the styles that I thrill to.

48:53Sean Fennessey:I have to assume that's Papillon.

48:55Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

48:55Sean Fennessey:So I think Papillon will win.

48:58Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

48:58Sean Fennessey:I'm predicting it to win.

48:59Amanda Dobbins:I am as well.

48:59Sean Fennessey:It's a beautifully hand-painted movie about a Jewish swimmer named Alfred Nakash who survived the Holocaust. You know, there's obviously a long history of Holocaust-related films doing well at the Academy Awards. I don't think that's the only reason, the primary reason why this movie would win. I think it's very visually distinct from a lot of these other films, some of which use traditional hand-drawn animation, some of which use 3D animation. This just feels like a different kind of artistic experience. Yes. It's beautiful and very captivating and short.

49:30Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

49:31Sean Fennessey:And I think conveys its story and its message without being heavy-handed either. So I think that's going to win. honestly if you told me the girl who cried pearls or retirement plan won I wouldn't be surprised

49:43Amanda Dobbins:same retirement plan has won a lot of like festival presentations it's very funny and I liked it I enjoyed it I thought it was very funny shout out again to the New Yorker for making it available I'm not a stop motion person the girl who cried pearls

49:59Sean Fennessey:is a stop motion film I just I'm not

50:00Amanda Dobbins:unless it's Heatmiser and Coalmiser and Rudolph I just I'm not really there

50:05Sean Fennessey:we salute yeah

50:08Amanda Dobbins:but that's personal preference

50:09Sean Fennessey:retirement plan has a very small benefit not just being a New Yorker distributed short film but also having a modicum of celebrity attached to it and Donald Gleason who is the narrator of it and it does feel a bit like an extended New Yorker cartoon and in that way it's very clever and also somewhat brief and effective I think it's only seven minutes long I liked that one the best I think pop I think Poppy will win but who the hell knows

50:35Amanda Dobbins:I'm going with Will win and should win Papillon. Okay. But we'll see.

50:39Sean Fennessey:Next category, costume design. The nominees are as follows. Deborah L. Scott for Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Kate Hawley for Frankenstein. Malgoja Terzanska for Hamnet. Miyako Belizzi for Marty Supreme. And Ruth E. Carter for Sinners. What do you got?

50:56Amanda Dobbins:Kate Hawley, Frankenstein, Will win. And should win Miyako Belizzi, Marty Supreme.

51:01Sean Fennessey:We match. Yeah. I probably would have been comfortable... with any of the, I think this is a pretty good category.

51:08Amanda Dobbins:It should win.

51:09Sean Fennessey:Yeah, I have Frankenstein for, Kate Hawley will win, and I have Miyako Belizzi for Marty Supreme.

51:14Amanda Dobbins:She's won the Guild stuff, and she won it back to.

51:16Sean Fennessey:Kate Hawley. Yes. Yes. I feel pretty strongly this is going to happen. I just mean that all five of these nominees, I think, are good.

51:25Amanda Dobbins:Say more about Avatar, Fire, and Ash costume design.

51:30Sean Fennessey:I think there's costume design for giant Na 'vi creatures. Sure. And also for,

51:35Amanda Dobbins:the, what's the Una Chaplin character's name?

51:39Sean Fennessey:Varang.

51:40Amanda Dobbins:Varang's look is very directional. Yes, it is.

51:48Sean Fennessey:It's an aspect of costume design that is a little under-discussed, which is that it is fabrics and textures sometimes, but it's also just look. It's how our CGI characters clothed is a factor, I think, in this category. And maybe like a way that the category might be evolving a little bit. I think one of the reasons why Kate Hawley has the most classical costume winning design that you will find at the Academy Awards.

52:12Amanda Dobbins:Listen, one of the nice things I had to say about Frankenstein was that red dress and how that red dress is used. And also the bride of Frankenstein in that film is very beautifully ornately presented, you know. Yes. So I get it. Deserving.

52:27Sean Fennessey:Won't be the last time we talk about Frankenstein. Let's talk about makeup and hairstyling. Yes. The nominees are Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cleona Fury for Frankenstein. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu for Kukuho. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry for Sinners. Kazuhiro, Glenn Griffin, and Bjorn Rabin for The Smashing Machine. And Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg for The Ugly Stepsister. Will Wynn, Frankenstein.

53:01Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

53:02Sean Fennessey:Should win The Ugly Stepsister.

53:03Amanda Dobbins:Okay. This is the one I forgot to watch.

53:06Sean Fennessey:Okay.

53:07Amanda Dobbins:Because it's, I knew that I needed to do Kokuho and The Lost Bus. And because you also hadn't seen.

53:15Sean Fennessey:I watched Kokuho, yes. Yes. Yes. I had seen The Lost Bus previously.

53:19Amanda Dobbins:But you had seen The Ugly Stepsister. I had. So I forgot because it wasn't noted in your list. I think should win Frankenstein. They did a good job with the creature design.

53:31Sean Fennessey:Can't argue with that. Yeah. I think Kokuho is an interesting film. It's a three-hour Japanese epic about Kabuki and two friends who move through the world of Kabuki. Tom Cruise's favorite movie of 2025. Ugly Stepsister is very gross and funny. And its humor hinges on its makeup and hairstyling, which is why I'm making the pick. It is like, to your point about songs. It's not just incidental to the movie. It is core to the movie, as is Frankenstein. but I just liked what the ugly stepsister did with it a little bit better two wins for Frankenstein yeah zero wins so far for one battle after another one win for Sinners uh production design

54:11Amanda Dobbins:yes

54:12Sean Fennessey:the nominees are Tamara Deverell for Frankenstein Fiona Crombie for Hamnet Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme Florencia Martin for one battle after another and Hannah Buechler and Monique Champagne for Sinners

54:26Amanda Dobbins:will win Tamara Deverell Frankenstein should win Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme. Give Jack Fisk an Oscar.

54:35Sean Fennessey:I agree. We match on this as well. I don't know how we just settled on this.

54:41Amanda Dobbins:It's just one period piece versus another. Tremendous amount of work there.

54:46Sean Fennessey:How did the Academy and all the precursors just land on this?

54:49Amanda Dobbins:Because Frankenstein really has swept the guilds and precursors in production, costume, and makeup, and hairstyling. in the pudding. And at the time, people talked about, oh, it's, you know, handmade and so beautiful and like so magisterial to look at. I think you and I did not thrill to all of it in the same way. But I do think a lot of craft, there are a lot of craft voters and they like, they appreciate and that they can see all of like the hand, literal handwork that goes into it. So.

55:24Sean Fennessey:Yeah, I mean, it's a really interesting category because it waxes and wanes in terms of what kind of stories it wants to celebrate from fantasy to historical period piece to future set movies. Right. And I think Marty Supreme falls into an uncomfortable middle zone in terms of what is being celebrated and recognized. So just to go through the last few years of production design, last year's winner was Wicked, which I think is actually not a bad. I think the production design of that movie is pretty good. I think it's shot very poorly, but I think the design of the world works.

55:59Amanda Dobbins:Which is also what you could say about Frankenstein. And the production design is not, and also the cinematography is like not dissimilar. It's true. And I remember watching Frankenstein being like, why does this layer where he's building it look exactly like the clock room in Wicked?

56:13Sean Fennessey:That's a very good call. 2023 was Poor Things, also wonderful production design. in that movie. 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front.

56:20Amanda Dobbins:Sure.

56:21Sean Fennessey:2021, Dune. 2020, Mank.

56:24Amanda Dobbins:And 2019 was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, right?

56:28Sean Fennessey:Barbara Ling and Nancy Hay. And that's probably the closest we have in terms of a comp to Marty Supreme.

56:33Amanda Dobbins:Right. But what were the competitors in 2019? Because they tend to go just what's the oldest we can go here?

56:43Sean Fennessey:That year's nominees were The Irishman. Okay. Similarly, you know Fisk had in the 50s Jojo Rabbit 1917 and Parasite

56:52Amanda Dobbins:alright so but they didn't give the home in Parasite production design so

56:58Sean Fennessey:no they didn't

56:59Amanda Dobbins:yeah

56:59Sean Fennessey:it's very interesting Jack Fisk here's the thing he's extremely well known amongst cinephiles okay why the Academy doesn't care I'm not sure he has been nominated four times with no wins and he's 80 years old it's a shame This episode is brought to you by Volkswagen. There is such a thing as becoming too comfortable in your day-to-day, but our favorite films, with stories that make us change the way we think, they weren't made by people content to just sit back and watch the world pass by. This is your sign that you shouldn't either. From us, from VW, and the other drivers out there, grab the wheel.

57:37Sean Fennessey:Do what you love, even if it means taking the road less traveled. Learn more at VW.com. Okay, let's do sound. There are quite a few people associated with this, so I won't read every single nominee's name, but these are the films that are nominated for Best Sound. F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Surat. Is it my turn to go first? It is. Will win F1.

58:00Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

58:01Sean Fennessey:Should win Sinners. Okay.

58:03Amanda Dobbins:I did should win F1. Like, why not? Vroom, vroom.

58:08Sean Fennessey:Yeah. Sinners is both a music movie and an action movie.

58:13Amanda Dobbins:I had sinners until I was just kind of like, sure.

58:17Sean Fennessey:Yeah, at the MPSC Awards, sinners won the award for ADR Dialogue, which I thought was interesting. In part because, you know, they're using those heavy cameras. And so the ADR really has to work well because they're loud. F1, of course, there's a lot of cameras mounted on fucking race cars. So that also is a feat. As always, I am no expert in sound. and every year someone who works in the sound industry DMs me and is like, stop talking about this. You sound like an asshole. I apologize. I'm doing my best. I'm not an expert. F1 seems like it would be a fine winner. Okay. You think this will be F1's only win?

58:54Amanda Dobbins:Yes, I do. I had to scroll down a little bit. Not this picture?

58:57Sean Fennessey:That's okay. Just making sure. Next category, visual effects. The nominees are Avatar, Fire, and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, and Sinners. What do you got?

59:11Amanda Dobbins:Will win Avatar Fire and Ash. Should win F1. I don't know. Why not?

59:18Sean Fennessey:No.

59:19Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

59:19Sean Fennessey:No. Should put some respect on Big Jim's name. He invented an entirely new way of making films.

59:25Amanda Dobbins:That's cool. And he's won Oscars for it. And I didn't like watching this one as much as I liked the other one where they did race cars and then they made it look real.

59:33Sean Fennessey:Okay. Did you know that Avatar won?

59:34Amanda Dobbins:that we make things look real, believably, and with craft, rather than creating new things. That's just my taste.

59:44Sean Fennessey:That's interesting. That does seem to be stifling creativity. Okay.

59:50Amanda Dobbins:It's just like I like stories about humans instead of, you know, fantasy stories. That's fine.

59:55Sean Fennessey:Humans appear in the film Avatar Fire and Ash. They're the villains, of course.

59:59Amanda Dobbins:It's mostly just Edie Falco and one of the power loaders.

1:00:03Sean Fennessey:God bless. Okay, film editing.

1:00:05Amanda Dobbins:I should have ordered a power loader for the Instagram live.

1:00:09Sean Fennessey:Whoa. Do those exist? Is that a real thing? No, Jack, you don't know? I don't think so. Jack, get us a power loader. Yeah. All right, I'm on it.

1:00:19Amanda Dobbins:And make it fit into this studio.

1:00:21Sean Fennessey:Should I interview Steven Spielberg waltzed in a power loader? Sure. That would be a real alpha move. Okay, film editing. And here's where... We show our hand? Well, here's where the wheels start churning, truly, for what's going to happen on this night. We have just gotten through the bulk of the craft awards, but there's a couple more to come, and I think they're going to be very indicative of what's going to go down. So film editing. The nominees are Stephen Mirion for F1, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another, Olivier Boucoutet for Sentimental Value, and Michael Chauver for Sinners.

1:01:03Sean Fennessey:I go first.

1:01:04Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

1:01:04Sean Fennessey:Will win one battle after another, Andy Jurgensen. Should win one battle after another, Andy Jurgensen.

1:01:10Amanda Dobbins:Oh, interesting. Yes. Okay, you're not spreading the wealth.

1:01:13Sean Fennessey:This is a two-hour and 40-minute film that feels like it's an hour and 40 minutes.

1:01:18Amanda Dobbins:Mm-hmm.

1:01:19Sean Fennessey:The most memorable moment from the film, among the most memorable moments in movies this year, is the car chase scene, which is an extraordinary feat of editing through the hills of Borrego Springs. This is Andy Jurgensen's second feature as lead editor on a movie. He is not an Academy regular. His only other editing credit as a lead editor is Licorice Pizza. So him winning here, it would remind me a little bit of Eric Messerschmidt's win for cinematography for Mank, where it was a guy who was on Fincher's team for a while and was present for a lot of stuff. And when he got bumped up, he got awarded pretty quickly.

1:01:57Sean Fennessey:That's kind of what this feels like to me. What do you think is going to happen?

1:01:59Amanda Dobbins:I also have Andy Jorgensen, One Battle After Another, to win. I would be happy. It should win. I agree with you, but I put something different just for fun, which is Ronald Bronstein and Josh Lafty for Marty Supreme, which is another long movie that moves and moves and moves. and part of its feature is that relentlessness and the editing and the pacing to make you feel incredibly stressed out. You think also about the sports elements of it and the ping pong scenes and there's a lot to fit into it. And I loved that film. So let's spread the wealth.

1:02:38Sean Fennessey:I think it's a great shout. It's a really good category in general. I think actually Sentimental Value is probably running in last place in this category, but it's also a very well edited film because there's lots of, it's kind of sliding between history at times and sliding between perspectives and trying to balance a lot of characters' narratives in a way that is a little bit more, is a little quieter, but I think is also very accomplished. Good job by the Academy Awards recognizing these films. Now for our predictions for this year's Best Casting Award brought to you by Volkswagen. No one wins an award by just sitting around thinking up great ideas for the big screen.

1:03:09Sean Fennessey:They make it happen. No matter how many years it takes, this is a call from us, from VW, and from all those award-winning drivers out there. Get in the director's seat. Make your dreams happen because honestly, what are you waiting for? Okay, best casting, the first year ever for this award. The nominees are as follows. For Hamnet, Nina Gold. For Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti. For One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulakundis. For The Secret Agent, Gabriel Dominguez. And for Sinners, Francine Maisler.

1:03:37Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

1:03:38Sean Fennessey:What do you got?

1:03:38Amanda Dobbins:Oh, it's my turn. Will win Francine Maisler, Sinners. and should win Gabriel Dominguez, The Secret Agent.

1:03:49Sean Fennessey:That is exactly what I have.

1:03:51Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:03:51Sean Fennessey:Now, let's start by just talking about Francine Maisler for a moment. Francine Maisler is a legend. I'm going to just share with you. Well, let's start with this. She's cast nine Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. She is perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood. Here are her credits from the beginning of her career in the 1990s. These are just the movies that she cast in the 1990s. Her first film where she's identified as a casting director is Reality Bites. Then The Usual Suspects. Then Bad Boys. Then The People vs. Larry Flint. Then As Good As It Gets. Then Out of Sight.

1:04:29Sean Fennessey:And then You've Got Mail. Sequentially, I've not removed anything or added anything. Those are the movies that she cast, which are basically all incredibly memorable.

1:04:38Amanda Dobbins:That's one of the all-time streaks in any discipline.

1:04:41Sean Fennessey:If you go through her career, I mean, her 2000s is not dissimilar from this. She has been associated with so many beloved movies over the years. I met her at Telluride a couple years ago. She's such a cool person and an interesting person. She is a Hollywood casting director, though. She's great at casting working actors. And what makes her different from most of her other nominees in this category, which is they do something different. And if you look at what Jennifer Venditti has been doing for a lot of movies, a lot of A24 movies, but a lot of films over the last 10 years, especially Safdie Brothers movies Gabriel Dominguez who we both think did amazing work finding so many Brazilians who are non-professional actors and One Battle 2 has reams and reams of first time faces people who've never been in a movie before and Grace Notes like

1:05:30Amanda Dobbins:Mr. Wonderful no no that's Marty Spring sorry yeah yeah yeah but other recognizable people from other movies but not in the sense of I see it's not Leonardo DiCaprio yes but you also have Leonardo DiCaprio

1:05:44Sean Fennessey:no I mean the two most memorable ones to me are the sort of the intake nurse when Bob has been arrested and then the nurse who frees him those two women who are not who are non-professional actors and who are among the most memorable people in that movie so there's so much accomplishment there and then Nina Goldenhamnett is a smaller crop but I think Jacoby Jupe in particular is like a real discovery and he is the beating heart of that movie in many ways and so she did good work as well the question I think about this category which fascinates me is will this secretly just become a best ensemble win?

1:06:18Amanda Dobbins:Because Sinners won the best ensemble at the SAG Awards and because it's rewarding a bunch of people that we really like. Correct. It could. I think it's unfair to pin that on Sinners because in addition to casting Michael B. Jordan and Haley Steinfeld and Jack O 'Connell and Delray Lindo and people who we know, although maybe not. You know, Hailee Steinfeld was, I didn't expect that from her. I didn't either. So, you know, that's some imagination. But like Miles Keaton is the find. And the movie hinges on him. And so it's doing, and then on down the line of the supporting actors, some are more well-known than others and some are that guys.

1:07:02But there is,

1:07:03Amanda Dobbins:she's working at volume and she also found the right new person and found and reinvented some known people. So I think that this actually is a feat of casting.

1:07:13Sean Fennessey:I think it is too. You've also got to consider when you introduce a new award, there's a whole line of people who are ready for an It's Time Award. Francine Maisler happens to be the casting director of one of the most acclaimed films, the most nominated film in the history of the Oscars. It's just the convergence of a lot of things that I think is leading to this, her likely winning. If she doesn't win, that will be notable, I think, for the future precedent of the award and kind of what the award, what people are voting for and why. Because most people who are voting on this award will have seen these films, unlike some of these other categories where there may be abstentions.

1:07:46Sean Fennessey:There's not going to be a lot of abstentions in this category going forward. It's going to be one of the most voted on categories, despite it being a below the line category. It's kind of interesting to me. That was our Best Casting Awards prediction brought to you by Volkswagen. Like some of our favorite protagonists in film this past year, if you want to make the most of your life, if you have to chase after what you want. Because when you sit back and become a passenger in your day-to-day life, that's an easy way to make regrets. Learn more at VW.com. Okay. Next category is cinematography. Okay.

1:08:17Sean Fennessey:The nominees are Dan Lousen for Frankenstein, Darius Kanji for Marty Supreme, Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another, Autumn Duralt-Archipaugh for Sinners, Adolfo Veloso for Train Dreams. What do you got?

1:08:29Amanda Dobbins:It's my turn again?

1:08:31Sean Fennessey:Okay, it's my turn. Michael Bauman for one battle after another will win. Autumn Duralt-Arkipaugh for Sinners should win.

1:08:37Amanda Dobbins:We match. But it's, I mean...

1:08:41Sean Fennessey:It's a tight race.

1:08:42Amanda Dobbins:It is, but...

1:08:44Sean Fennessey:You think Autumn could still win? She could.

1:08:46Amanda Dobbins:She could, and that would be really, really exciting. I just... Awesome interview on this podcast, but it's like amazing work. And I think even compared with some of the other nominees in this category, and I won't name names, but it's sinners is a period piece and it is like recreating a world. And as she talked about recreating it, um, like in a beautiful photographic way. Uh, so it's, it's really, really great work. It could happen. On the other hand, when Michael Bauman won, um, the ACE awards, AAC, AAC, AAC, we sat here talking about like, no, he's won every single precursor. So it's probably going to be Michael Bauman.

1:09:29Amanda Dobbins:And also that is, a beautiful movie.

1:09:31Sean Fennessey:It is. He's another interesting person like Andy Jurgensen who, you know, on his previous film with Paul Thomas Anderson, they were co-credited as DP. Paul Thomas Anderson did not take a DP co-credit on this movie. He is now, Bauman is now, he's made a lot of television as well. He's the DP of the forthcoming Anthony Bourdain film that Matt Johnson made. He's obviously very gifted, but he's not like an industry legend. The other thing for Autumn is a woman has never won this award. Yeah. I mean, it's just crazy that a woman has never won this award. And there have been many nominees over the years and Ryan Coogler films have gotten nominees over the years.

1:10:08Sean Fennessey:Rachel Morrison has been nominated here. But, you know, that's not the reason she should win. I think she should win because she brings a real artistic flair to the world that Coogler created. But it's an interesting one. This feels we're getting into the indicative zone. Yeah. of where my head's at with the awards and what it could mean.

1:10:30Amanda Dobbins:The only other thing I want to say, because this sort of concludes the below the line category, and Autumn is one of a trio of Sinner's department heads, also Ruth E. Carter and Hannah Buechler. Yes. That Kugler has assembled and worked with, and they're just like the power trio of Black women and making movies. So it seems, and we haven't predicted them to win. And that's kind of a bummer.

1:10:59Sean Fennessey:Hannah Biegler has won in the past and Ruthie Carter has won in the past. And I think that there was some thinking that Autumn would be able to go in there because these films are so loved. I mean, the look of Sinners is really fascinating. And Autumn talked about it at length when she was on the show. And Autumn has also been doing a lot of press and has put herself out there, and I think in a very smart way. So, you know, we will see what happens, but...

1:11:18Amanda Dobbins:Just wanted to shout them out because they're great. That's all.

1:11:21Sean Fennessey:They are great. I'm going to come back to Andy and Michael being my picks and how it relates to the rest of the puzzle. Best original screenplay. Yes. The nominees are Robert Kaplau for Blue Moon, Jafar Panahi and Script Collaborators for It Was Just an Accident, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier and Eskil Voigt for Sentimental Value, and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.

1:11:43Amanda Dobbins:Will win Sinners, should win Sinners.

1:11:46Sean Fennessey:I wrote will win Sinners, should win Sentimental Value. Okay. Just a feeling I had.

1:11:52Amanda Dobbins:That's beautiful.

1:11:53Sean Fennessey:I think it's a great film. I think it's really art. I think the work, the best work the Kugler does is the vision. I think the script is very good. Yeah. And I think the central conceit of colliding the idea of a vampire movie and black blues music and the history of black Americans is just ingenious, right? There's just something very special in that metaphor. But sentimental value is very writerly. It is very novelistic in a way that I admire. I really like what Joachim Trude does. So that's my pick. There's no chance for an upset here. Kugler is getting this.

1:12:29Amanda Dobbins:I really, I will be very upset if there is an upset because this is our category. This is where all the real ones actually do get their Oscar, even if they're deserving of many more, which is also the case of Ryan Kugler. And also, I just, I think it's a tough night and a bad look if he's not up there.

1:12:52Sean Fennessey:I agree with that.

1:12:53Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:12:53Sean Fennessey:Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are Will Tracy for Begonia, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Chloe Zhao and Maggie O 'Farrell for Hamnet, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, and Clint Bentley and Greg Cuidar for Train Dreams. Will win One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson. Yes. Should win One Battle After Another for Paul Thomas Anderson.

1:13:11Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

1:13:12Sean Fennessey:You agree.

1:13:12Amanda Dobbins:What if I was like, should win Hamnet?

1:13:14Sean Fennessey:You should say Frankenstein. This will almost certainly be Paul Thomas Anderson's first Academy Award. He has been 0 for 11 up until this point. Will it be his last of the night? Probably not. Let's talk about that category now. Best Director. The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, and Chloe Zhao for Hamnet.

1:13:42Amanda Dobbins:Will win Paul Thomas Anderson and should win Paul Thomas Anderson. I agree. Yeah.

1:13:47Sean Fennessey:Won the DGA. Yeah. Everybody likes Paul Thomas Anderson.

1:13:52Amanda Dobbins:And it is the quote unquote, it's time narrative comes to its conclusion. Not like too far past when it should have gone. And this is also, it's not like a Scorsese wedding for the Departed type situation, I think. Even though I enjoy watching The Departed, even though I don't understand what happens at the end of it. We really like this movie. and I think that there is a magic to the way that it was made that we've heard about from PTA and from everyone who worked with him um and there was a magic to the result his first action movie but is also so much more than an action movie and um he has he has been the leader of all these people so I I feel good about it I mean I feel bad that other people are losing let's say that

1:14:45Sean Fennessey:How did Phantom Thread not get nominated for Best Original Screenplay? What happened there?

1:14:52Amanda Dobbins:The Phantom Thread disrespect. He didn't even get nominated.

1:14:57Sean Fennessey:Listen. The nominee is that year. Get Out, The Big Sick, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards.

1:15:03Amanda Dobbins:I remember that morning feeling excited with the number of nominations that Phantom Thread did get. That's just bananas.

1:15:13Sean Fennessey:because he got best director that year. Yeah. And not screenplay, and there are obviously 10 screenplay nominees. That's just utterly bizarre to me. I like The Big Sick too, but I mean, come on. Okay, that's just a sidebar. It's one of those things where it's like, that's one of the things that happens where you would expect someone like him to have already had a best original screenplay Oscar. And then that leads to this feeling that has been burbling throughout the year of like, man, it's beyond its time for Paul Thomas Anderson. And then like, now you can say, well, is there going to be an overcorrection on that time?

1:15:44Sean Fennessey:We'll get to that. Okay, this is where things get really interesting. We're going to do the acting awards. I don't feel good about three out of these four. I don't think most awards prognosticators feel good about three out of these four. How do you feel?

1:15:56Amanda Dobbins:I think that I'm going to be wrong about one of them. And so then I was spiraling of trying to outthink what I would be wrong about and then correct for it. And then I, you know, I am looking at history. I'm looking at the old results. I'm triangulating as best I can. But then I have to think about, am I, you know, like holding on too hard to the past? Do I need to like open my mind? So I'm, listen, I'm spiraling. I don't know what to say.

1:16:24Sean Fennessey:You're spiraling.

1:16:24Amanda Dobbins:I'm not spiraling. I've made my decisions and I have written everything down. Hang in there, mama.

1:16:29Sean Fennessey:You got this. Best actor in a supporting role. That's how we're going to start.

1:16:34Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

1:16:34Sean Fennessey:The nominees are Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, and Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value.

1:16:46Amanda Dobbins:Mm-hmm.

1:16:47Sean Fennessey:I think it's your turn. I've chosen Sean Penn. I have as well. For Will Win. And I've chosen Stellan Skarsgård for Should Win. Okay. I think it's possible that Stellan Skarsgård wins. I don't see the Delroy Lindo thing.

1:17:04Amanda Dobbins:but there are people who are passionate about it.

1:17:06Sean Fennessey:There are people who say this is Marsha Gay Harden for Pollock. Has not won any precursors. Okay. Nobody is really talking about this happening and then all of a sudden you hear that name and you're like, oh my God! A real, genuine Oscars surprise.

1:17:20Amanda Dobbins:And I think many of those people are pointing to first of all that he got in without having won and he was the surprise nominee.

1:17:29Sean Fennessey:He was.

1:17:30Amanda Dobbins:But then also that he accepted best ensemble at the SAC courts. And so he was the last person on the stage that you heard from. Correct. And really like held the room for a while.

1:17:42Sean Fennessey:And so if you believe in the vibe shift, the Sinner's vibe shift, that this would be the clearest sign of it changing. It wouldn't indicate specifically, but I will say this. Sean Penn winning two precursors despite not showing up. What that has essentially done, and I had someone who's very smart about this stuff share this insight with me yesterday. this is a category that this movie didn't even have a month ago.

1:18:08Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:18:08Sean Fennessey:You know, when everybody thought it was Stellan Skarsgård or Jacob Elordi, this just adds to one battle strength. So if Sean Penn wins, that might also very clearly indicate which way the wind is blowing. Now, there's some speculation that Sean Penn won't even go to the Academy Awards.

1:18:23Amanda Dobbins:He went to the Golden Globes. He did.

1:18:25Sean Fennessey:But I wonder if the reaction he got at the Golden Globes is why he's like, fuck all this, I don't care. Which would be honestly really funny, I think it was Variety today had some piece that was like, please, Sean Penn, go to the Oscars. I don't know. Who cares? Like, that's his whole thing is he's like, fuck you to everybody.

1:18:43Amanda Dobbins:Surely they can. I don't think they'll let him smoke inside the auditorium, but they can set up a little room on the side.

1:18:49Sean Fennessey:How do you feel about public smoking? You think we should bring him back?

1:18:51Amanda Dobbins:Smoking is back. I mean, I don't think that. That's not what I asked you. I think that we should not have it everywhere all the time because, like, wherever you want. because I got to take my kids places. And then also, it's just your hair really smells, your clothes, that sort of thing. And I just, I can't be doing laundry on that level. But, and also it's bad for you children. My children, no. Don't smoke.

1:19:17Sean Fennessey:I grew up in a house with two parents while they're still together. My dad smoked Parliaments and my mom smoked Winston's. And there's just smoke in the house. Yeah, I know. She was letting them rip. She was really letting them rip. For real. All the way up until I was like, nine and then she just quit cold turkey um but i think that they had both i think they both smoked since like 14 and man it just smelled like fucking smoke my entire childhood and that obviously wasn't good for me no so i don't really believe in that that being said you know people look cool smoking what are we gonna do yeah this is life i went to a party recently where it was

1:19:53Amanda Dobbins:just smoking indoors bouquets of cigarettes everywhere yeah it was it was fun why are we

1:20:00Sean Fennessey:talking about this, Sean Penn. Sean Penn, I do think you'll win.

1:20:02Amanda Dobbins:Did you make your picks? Oh, I will win Sean Penn, should win Benicio Del Toro.

1:20:07Sean Fennessey:You're still on that train. Listen.

1:20:08Amanda Dobbins:Is there any chance it happens? I don't think so. Okay. But that makes it all the more special to me.

1:20:16Sean Fennessey:If Benicio wins even more so, I'm like, wow, one battle is in a really prime position. Your little one grew three inches overnight. Adorable. Also, expensive. Sell their pint-sized pieces on Depop and list them in minutes with no selling fees. Because somewhere, a dad refuses to pay full price for the clothes his kids will outgrow tomorrow. And he's ready to buy your son's entire wardrobe right now. Consider your future growth spurt budget secured. Start selling on Depop, where taste recognizes taste. Payment processing fees and boosting fees still apply. See website for details. Let's go to another stumper.

1:20:55Sean Fennessey:Best actress in a supporting role. the nominees are Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value Inga Ibstadur-Lilias for Sentimental Value Amy Madigan for Weapons Wunmi Musaku for Sinners and Tiana Taylor for One Battle After Another

1:21:08Amanda Dobbins:this is the one that I wrote in right before we started recording this is what I was texting you stressed about last night this is what I've been texting friends and loved ones yep you're flummoxed did a little like pre-bedtime counsel with my husband Zach who talked me off the ledge of what what was a bad pick though if it's then right, I'm going to be mad at myself. Ultimately, I was trying to decide between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Masako.

1:21:38Sean Fennessey:Okay.

1:21:38Amanda Dobbins:Amy Madigan for weapons, Wunmi Masako for sinners. There is a tradition, there is a precedent, as you have previously noted, of someone winning and best supporting actress as the only nominee for their film, which Amy Madigan is for weapons.

1:21:52Sean Fennessey:Nine times this has happened. It's very rare for anyone to win an acting award when they're the sole nominee from their film.

1:21:59Amanda Dobbins:Right. She also has the SAG bump and gave a great speech at SAG and is beloved. I have maintained that I don't think international voters care about Field of Dreams and the Amy Madigan Hollywood legacy in the way that we do. But I also, I had a gut instinct like last week, I was like, I think it's going to be Wunmi Misaku. I just, I, and that is like pure, that's how I make decisions at some point. I'm going with what I feel. So I'm going with Wunmi Misaku.

1:22:36Sean Fennessey:What is your should win?

1:22:38Amanda Dobbins:I thought Inga Ibsdott or Lilias was very good in Sentimental Value.

1:22:41Sean Fennessey:Fucking hell yeah.

1:22:42Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:22:42Sean Fennessey:I'd love to hear that. That's really nice. Will win, I chose Amy Madigan. Okay.

1:22:46Amanda Dobbins:I get it. Here's my logic. I get it.

1:22:48Sean Fennessey:Here's my, and I don't fucking know. I don't fucking, this is going to be the first big award they give out. Yeah. And I'm going to be like, all right, well, that happened.

1:22:55Amanda Dobbins:When we were talking about it last night, you were like, I just had to make a decision and move on. That's what I did. Like I had to let it go.

1:23:00Sean Fennessey:That is what I did. I thought about it very clearly this way. There has been only one race this entire awards season in which Amy Madigan, Tiana Taylor, and Wunbi Misaku have gone against each other. And that is SAG. And Amy Madigan won SAG.

1:23:14Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:23:14Sean Fennessey:That's it. SAG isn't always predictive. I'm not saying that's the only reason she's winning. I just kind of feel like she's going to win. I told this story to Bill the other day. I was sitting in a movie theater in Telluride with an award strategist. We're just chatting about what the next six months is going to be like. And I turned to the person and I was like, I feel like there's a great campaign to be run for Amy Madigan. I feel like she's insanely memorable in that movie. She is an actor with a huge history. She'll be great at Q &As because she's got a great personality and she's got a lot of cool movies to talk about in her career.

1:23:43Sean Fennessey:She's a very principled person and a thoughtful person, but she also feels like a normal person. She doesn't feel like a star. This category likes that. so I'm just going with it.

1:23:55Amanda Dobbins:You've been consistent on it since the very beginning and I respect that.

1:24:00Sean Fennessey:You could definitely be right. I don't feel confident at all.

1:24:03Amanda Dobbins:I don't feel confident at all either, but I just have a vibe and then it's interesting if we disagree. Not that we planned it, but you know.

1:24:14Sean Fennessey:You know what's an interesting test of this too? And we've talked about the villain thing and how villains often win in the supporting actor category. Is this the first time

1:24:19Amanda Dobbins:we don't have the same pick?

1:24:20Sean Fennessey:I think it is. Okay. Isn't that crazy? Yeah. It's probably good. I think most people can remember the name of Amy Madigan's character in this movie, which is Aunt Gladys. Yes. I don't know if the same could be said for Wimmy Misaku's character. I think it could be said for Tayana Taylor's character, in part because her name is so unusual, Profitia Beverly Hills. Maybe they can remember Annie, maybe not. You know, obviously Sinners is the much more popular of all of the movies that we're talking about. But that's another thing where it's just like Aunt Gladys kind of went into the lexicon a little bit.

1:24:49Sean Fennessey:This is all circumstantial.

1:24:49Amanda Dobbins:circumstantial i'm just kind of alerted as i was um to the i guess hbo brazil to the brazil specific promotional video that tanya maria aka donia sebastiana from the secret agent did in which she is like she you know she does the billy crystal thing she's like juxtaposed into various films yes and she's she's like in sinners as jack o 'connell for a while which is really funny it's Also, it's all in Portuguese. And to my knowledge, no one has translated it. So I haven't seen it. Once again, just vibing. And then at the end, she is Aunt Gladys. And then she's rapping Marty's Supreme ping pong balls.

1:25:32Sean Fennessey:Her Aunt Gladys is very memorable. My should win is Inga as well.

1:25:37Amanda Dobbins:Yeah. Last night I was like, Zach, what about Inga? And he was like, she hasn't won a single thing.

1:25:42Sean Fennessey:I was predicting Inga a couple of months ago, and I have moved way off of that. that could be actually the Marsha Gay Harden thing where they're like oh

1:25:52Amanda Dobbins:okay it's this and where is the sentimental value you know it's so powerful nominees wise

1:25:58Sean Fennessey:it could go over nine I mean that's that's a hundred percent in play you know if it does if Secret Agent wins international it could go over nine okay let's go back to some normalcy best actress in a leading role the nominees are Jessie Buckley for Hamnet Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You Kate Hudson for Song Song Blue Renata Ryan's vote for sentimental value and Emma Stone for begonia. Will win. The bride herself. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. And here she comes. Should win. I wrote down Emma Stone and then just went fucking Jessie Buckley. Like, I don't know. Jessie Buckley in the last 40 minutes knocked me out.

1:26:35Sean Fennessey:I'm not immune to it. I said it when we talked after you came back from Venice. I was like, look, man, I have some notes about this movie, but I really liked it and I liked it because I walked out of the last 40 minutes feeling crushed, overwhelmed by what she pulls off in the movie.

1:26:52Amanda Dobbins:And not just in the last 40 minutes, in the birth scene of the twins, I think about it all the time. She is astonishing. She really is. She's very good in this.

1:27:02Sean Fennessey:And you have the same?

1:27:03Amanda Dobbins:I have will win, Jesse Buckley should win, Rose Byrne. Okay. Rose Byrne is doing a different but similar thing in perfect and electrifying detail. and the scene that like the support group and the like it is our fault it's our fault scene and where she's just shoving cake in her mouth is unbelievable. She like goes for it and it's all the therapy scenes with Conan speaking of she's fantastic. One of the best performances of the year. It's an amazing movie that she carries on her shoulders. I won't quibble.

1:27:38Sean Fennessey:This is another one of those like this category and the next category is a sign of the strength of this year, that there were a lot of good movies this year and that this is a, I would say an unusually quality Oscar slate. Some, like, I'm not so sure about that. You know, the F1s over, it was just an accident. It's like, you know, could have done a little better, but it's a very good slate. Okay, now for the fucking barn burner.

1:28:00Amanda Dobbins:Okay.

1:28:01Sean Fennessey:This is like the category of my life. This is like, I've never had more of a weird feeling about a category. And you've been crunching numbers? Yeah, there's a lot of data to think about. There's a lot of strategy to go into this. And then the vibe shift plays a big part in this. And I don't know whether this will be predictive of the rest of the night or not. But I'm very eager to talk about it with you. So it is Best Actor in a Leading Role. The nominees are Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, and Wagner Mora for The Secret Agent.

1:28:36Amanda Dobbins:It's my turn.

1:28:37Sean Fennessey:Go.

1:28:38Amanda Dobbins:Will win. Michael B. Jordan. sinners.

1:28:42Sean Fennessey:Okay.

1:28:43Amanda Dobbins:Should win Timothee Chalamet, Morty Supreme. And I love opera and ballet. I love them.

1:28:49Sean Fennessey:I am picking Michael B. Jordan. I don't feel good about it. Okay. We're kind of in like don't be a coward predict F1 territory here because I have got like a really weird feeling that either Leo or Wagner Mora is going to win. Really weird.

1:29:04Amanda Dobbins:I was doing this myself because as you know, I've been on the Wagner Mora this, it's Wagner Mora's time. you know fear and respect brazil yeah for months and there is an interpretation where timmy wins the first few and then you have the baftas i don't remember the actor's name and i swear robert aramayo and then the michael b jordan surprise at at sag and you think okay so this is this is wide open and then maybe vagnar mora and the international vote okay here's comes

1:29:39Sean Fennessey:through the case against wagner mora there is that wagner mora was not even shortlisted for the bafta i agree i think there is a there is a prevailing theory i talked to two different people about this yesterday there is a theory unprovable that leo was in second place at bafta and that the case for leo okay who has not been campaigning as much in the last couple of weeks yeah that's because he's filming a movie yes which i'm very grateful for with martin scorsese and jennifer

1:30:08Amanda Dobbins:Lawrence.

1:30:09Sean Fennessey:That there's a weird thing here where like no one's talking about this, but that Leo is Leo. He's very understood to be great. You know, the Academy for years kind of gave him the stiff arm, but that this is a bit of a culmination. And then there's two things to note here. One is that BAFTA is usually the bellwether. They've matched on best actor nine out of the past 10 years. So the Robert Aramaya win really throws this thing into a state of disrepair. SAG also, and that is where the Michael B. Jordan prediction comes. If not for that SAG win, no one would be predicting him to win. But SAG has been off in actor and actress in three out of the last six years.

1:30:46Sean Fennessey:SAG is just not super predictive. We just saw last year Demi Moore and Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor and Best Actress, and they both lost at the Academy Awards.

1:30:55Amanda Dobbins:I agree with you, and I was trying to talk myself out of this. And then also, by the way, so I am picking Michael B. Jordan, So I'm picking a Sinner's win in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

1:31:07Sean Fennessey:You are.

1:31:08Amanda Dobbins:So then I need to start doing some math.

1:31:11Sean Fennessey:Uh-huh.

1:31:12Amanda Dobbins:And does that affect any of my other picks? So I agree with you that I have a lot of, like, I'm not sure. But I was talking to a friend of ours last night and just like, hey, who do you think is going to win? and they also said Michael B because this SAG moment was perfectly timed in the middle of voting it was and had that great viral moment of surprise and in the room you could just feel people being like excited for something new that they didn't expect and also excited for him and then as my friend said he wears it so well yes he just and it was an amazing speech and natural and heartfelt and still a movie star.

1:31:57Amanda Dobbins:And it just kind of like clicked into place. And there was this moment of like, oh, why isn't Michael B. Jordan the frontrunner for best actor? And... I just, I don't know. Okay. When do people vote is a real question. Did people vote the first week, the second week? I don't know.

1:32:13Sean Fennessey:I think there's a couple things to take into consideration here, some of which is a little bit unseemly, but I'm just going to talk through it. Yeah. One, Michael B. Jordan is a classical kind of extremely well-liked Hollywood person who has been involved since he was a young kid. And we've watched him grow up in television and movies. He's a legitimate star. Yeah. Like he opens movies. People really like seeing him. He also is a classical star in that we don't know a lot about him. He has done an amazing job of managing his persona and just basically showing up for the movies. And occasionally when he talks about what he likes, it's like, I like anime.

1:32:47Sean Fennessey:Like it's kind of harmless. And so all of that is going for him. and you've got a lot of people who have interacted I was with some people over the last few days who have like interacted with him a lot over the years and are like he's a good guy I like him that movie is on his shoulders he's giving two performances right there's all those things on the flip side I don't know what the International Academy thinks of Sinners and I think this is to your point about having two acting wins and maybe more plus a screenplay win this is a movie that's going to have to play for the new Academy in a way that I'm not sure if it will it might

1:33:20Amanda Dobbins:it very well might

1:33:21Sean Fennessey:we just don't know

1:33:22Amanda Dobbins:but the other thing there is okay if they're not going for Michael B. Jordan is the vote splitting between Wagner-Mora Leonardo DiCaprio Chalamet like the

1:33:34Sean Fennessey:there's some harebrained thinking out there that Chalamet who still has a lot of supporters yeah and B.J. would split and that that would be the pathway for a Wagner or for a Leo to climb up I think that's I almost did it man I almost I almost I almost picked Leo and I know I've been kind of wish casting that throughout the year.

1:33:53Amanda Dobbins:I would be elated if Leo won. I would feel for Michael B. Jordan as well because the thing you were talking about at the beginning of this, like this is about emotions. And Michael B. on stage at SAG felt so good. Yeah, I agree, I agree. And for all of the reason you just said, and I do think that that has weight. And so I do also think that if Leo wins, I would feel sad because the Michael B. Jordan thing would be so special. that said Leo is unbelievable in one battle after another he's so he's funny it's so emotional the scene at the end I and a deserving and an amazing actor and a you know like the only the true only movie star we have left so I'd be good with it I don't know let's talk about the Timmy fallout a little bit okay

1:34:42Sean Fennessey:um it's a paradox

1:34:45Amanda Dobbins:mm-hmm

1:34:46Sean Fennessey:Marty Supreme is not a hit without about the swaggering Marty promo machine. Yeah. And Timmy, you know, being a rapper, being stunty, talking his shit. And if you don't have that, I don't know that Marty Supreme is quite in this place that it's in right now. And I don't know that Chalamet's career is quite in this place that it's in right now. The backslide of that is that there are some people who think that there is maybe not as much of a divide between Marty and who Timothee Chalamet is in real life.

1:35:14Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:35:15Sean Fennessey:And then you compound that with what I think is mostly internet bullshit, but is like something that did happen, which was the comments about the ballet and opera, which happened earlier this week and really only took off on Thursday after Oscar voting closed.

1:35:32Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

1:35:32Sean Fennessey:But has set off a kind of internet firestorm. I don't know how much of a real firestorm that is, but all the Oscar voters I've talked to in the last week were like, they wanted to talk about that. Yeah. I thought those comments were like maybe poorly phrased, but basically true and understandable what he was trying to communicate. That being said, if you're in the world of the ballet or opera, I understand that you have certain sensitivities to how your work is characterized. I love the ballet, so I don't want it to be denigrated in any way. But it's not so much what he said, I thought, but just how people feel about him.

1:36:07Sean Fennessey:That's what that indicates.

1:36:09Amanda Dobbins:Yeah, I mean, the comments themselves, I think,

1:36:15Amanda Dobbins:were poorly phrased or a true thing phrased in an unappealing way, which who could relate to it more than me? But so I get it and I'm sure he regrets it.

1:36:27Sean Fennessey:Your energy.

1:36:28Amanda Dobbins:Or maybe he doesn't. But like he's not wrong and he was talking about it in the context of like going to theaters and wanting to make art that is still commercially viable, which opera and ballet are less so for a number of reasons, which aren't his fault. And I also love the ballet and the opera. And we are Met Opera streaming subscribers in my home. So how about that? Thank you to my dad for that Christmas gift. But I do think that, I don't know how closely, and I hope not at all closely, you followed the Justin Baldoni, Blake Lively ongoing circus. I kind of checked out after a while. I think that's wise.

1:37:10Amanda Dobbins:I think they should have checked out long ago. But one of the things that was revealed and one of the major points of contention was, you know, kind of. Who was hired to start a campaign against her and how much of that campaign was professional and seated and then how much of it was just. How much was the seating versus how much was just people waiting on the Internet to get their takes off against Blake Lively? And I think the answer ultimately, and again, no one sue me. This is my interpretation of an ongoing legal case, is that it was a little bit of both. But that there were a lot of people waiting who don't like Blake Lively for reasons valid and strange, both.

1:37:54Amanda Dobbins:And they had their memes ready. And it feels like that for Timmy as well, where it's like, oh, we found something that we can really, we can start unleashing everything.

1:38:01Sean Fennessey:And as soon as you get to the mountaintop, that's when they start taking you down. there's definitely something going on there um i don't know i'm from new york his energy is very very notable to me i i i like it i've always liked it i you know it and it works on me from

1:38:16Amanda Dobbins:beginning to end i just it's where i am i'm in the bag for for timmy chalamet and that's fine

1:38:22Sean Fennessey:you don't have to be there's i i still think there's a chance he wins he's still running it like 35 like it's not like he's not going to get any votes um this is not i think that the I think the other thing that goes against him, of course, is that he's a young guy and young guys don't usually win. And BJ is just now crossing the threshold of when it's like, okay, this is when a person who's been in the industry for a while usually starts to win. One important note here. In the past five years, there's been a big trend where leads match with Best Picture winners. For the five past years, there's been a Best Actor or Best Actress lead winner that has been matched with Best Picture.

1:38:56Sean Fennessey:Now, it doesn't have to happen, but it being more common, you're kind of your Killian Murphy and Oppenheimer sort of wins. or Michelle Yeoh and everything at Aurora Lowlands.

1:39:09Sean Fennessey:MBJ and what that means for sinners, it feels tied, and yet I still predicted MBJ. And now we will talk about Best Picture. Are you ready? Yes. Okay. Let's read the nominees for Best Picture for hopefully the last time. Best Picture, Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners and Train Dreams. I believe it's your turn.

1:39:35Amanda Dobbins:Will win one battle after another and should win my favorite film of last year, one battle after another.

1:39:42Sean Fennessey:I agree. I will win one battle, should win one battle.

1:39:46Amanda Dobbins:But you brought up the essential point. And I predicted, so the only category in which we disagree, we have, our picks are 23 for 24. How? And all it is...

1:39:56Sean Fennessey:Is supporting actress.

1:39:57Amanda Dobbins:Is that right? Did we match on the shorts too?

1:39:59Sean Fennessey:I believe so.

1:40:00Amanda Dobbins:Okay. Unbelievable. Then, and we don't consult. I guess people are, we do it in separate docs.

1:40:08Sean Fennessey:Should I just have a little fucking gumption and change Michael B. Jordan? No. Because that's the one race. That's the one race that to me is, it should be studied anthropologically. Because it's a great, we didn't even, we barely mentioned Ethan Hawke. Right. But it's a great collection of performances. It's old, young, new, international, blockbuster, small art house film. It's the gamut.

1:40:30Amanda Dobbins:Mm-hmm. Okay.

1:40:34Sean Fennessey:Best picture.

1:40:34Amanda Dobbins:And they'll never release the vote tallies. All right.

1:40:37Sean Fennessey:Here's a ton of information for you about this. But so here's the thing.

1:40:40Amanda Dobbins:So we are 23 for 24. Yeah. And the one difference, I also, I picked, Winui Misaku, four sinners. Yep. So I have five sinners wins, I think, when you asked me.

1:40:51Sean Fennessey:You do.

1:40:51Amanda Dobbins:And yet I went with one battle. So what I was saying about...

1:40:55Sean Fennessey:Your wins are casting, score, screenplay, supporting actress, and actor.

1:41:01Amanda Dobbins:Yes.

1:41:02Sean Fennessey:And you, for One Battle, now currently have director, screenplay, picture, cinematography, editing.

1:41:10Amanda Dobbins:Editing, supporting actor.

1:41:11Sean Fennessey:Supporting actor.

1:41:12Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:41:13Sean Fennessey:Six to five.

1:41:14Amanda Dobbins:So six to five, which is more of an even split than we've seen historically the past few years. So again, we haven't really had this two people, two films in the race. It's been Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere and Donora from the very beginning. but yeah I have five and six and I have more acting nominees I have you know more above the line or at least in the in the movie winners for Sinners so my math doesn't add up well it does but it does one battle wins more films

1:41:51Sean Fennessey:and one battle gets an acting award yeah which is usually that's usually part of the package um let me just give you some some data points here. One battle after another's dominance across the precursors. Here's everything it's won. You ready?

1:42:08Amanda Dobbins:Yeah.

1:42:09Sean Fennessey:PGA, DGA, WGA, Ace Eddie for the editors, ASC for the cinematographers, costume design for contemporary film, makeup for contemporary film, international awards, BAFTA, Cesar, the Australian Academy, televised award shows, Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, the Critics' Trifecta, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics Circle, National Film Critics Society. Yeah. That's everything. Yes. The only prize that it doesn't have is Best Ensemble. That's the only prize at SAG. That's everything. This is the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win, and it might not win.

1:42:51Sean Fennessey:It might not win. It is 100 % possible that Sinners could win.

1:42:55Amanda Dobbins:But so now we talk about the vibe shift. Yes. And I don't even think Vibe Shift is totally fair because Sinners has also been in the running, I mean, since April. Much, much longer just because it's been out for longer.

1:43:11Sean Fennessey:I said in our episode in April of 2025, this movie is getting at least 10 nominations.

1:43:16Amanda Dobbins:Right. And it's been loved. It's rewarded at every single award ceremony in one way or another. It has been a part of the discourse. And there has just been this sense of, we don't know. We don't know. It could go either way. And that happened before SAG, which was a real boost to Sinners and just also Sinners prominent on screen and Sinners dominant in an awards setting. So, and in the middle of Oscar voting. So my best rationalization for this was that the vibe shift is what pushes Michael B. Jordan. and then people are like, I haven't been sure what to do. This race has been wide open. I'm not passionate about Timothee Chalamet or whatever.

1:44:02Amanda Dobbins:So Michael B. And then the one battle is the best picture. And so instead of like a best picture, best director split, it's a best picture, best actor split.

1:44:13Sean Fennessey:I don't know. Again. I fully agree with you. I mean, that was how I rationalized it. And that something strong had to burble up for sinners because of how beloved it is. and this is the strongest thing that could burble up. This is the thing where Leo hasn't really been competing. He hasn't been winning anything and so that was a place where One Battle was not strong and that was a place where Sinners could be much stronger. Maybe this is Cope from a couple of One Battle fans who just can't see the Sinners wave. It could be. About to crash down on Sunday night.

1:44:47Amanda Dobbins:Yeah, but also the list that you just read of precursors, like, we have to be real. Like, that's... We're two Oscar nerds. Like, we can only... We can only work within the bounds of what we're seeing.

1:45:04Sean Fennessey:That's why it's this battle between precedent and vibes. That is the question that is happening. It's been very exciting for the race. Here's... This is going to sound like it's a strike in favor of one battle, but it's actually a strike against it, right? This is a really, really, really cool data point if our predictions here hold. If one battle after another wins, picture, director, screenplay, editing, and cinematography. It will be the first time that that quintet of awards has gone to one film since Schindler's List. Before that, Dances with Wolves did it in 1990, The Last Emperor did it in 1987, and Gandhi did it in 1982.

1:45:41Sean Fennessey:Before that, you have to go all the way back to Gigi in 1961 when all five of those awards happened. But even then, there was a color category and a black and white category for cinematography. Gigi won for color and The Defiant Ones won for black and white. Now, there's a wrinkle here. If Sean Penn does win and you tack on an acting award on top of that five, the only film in the history of the Oscars to do that is Gandhi.

1:46:10Amanda Dobbins:Oh. That's it. Schindler's List didn't win a single acting award?

1:46:16Sean Fennessey:It did not. Ralph Fiennes and Liam Neeson did not win

1:46:20Amanda Dobbins:give Ralph Fiennes an Oscar

1:46:23Sean Fennessey:that I mean that is true Oscar history yeah to have that collection of six prizes because so many times over the years you have one cinematography is a very volatile award where it frequently doesn't go to the best picture winner the acting awards are not always so closely associated historically with best picture winners they are much more so now but they used to be more like spectacle event films that weren't prized for their performance. They were prized for the scope of their stories. There's this, you know, and One Battle and Sinners are both a nice kind of convergence of those. Those are big scale movies that have great performances in them.

1:46:58Sean Fennessey:So I don't know. First of all, I love this, that there's something like this can happen. It's so exciting as somebody who cares about this stuff so much. But also that's a note against One Battle that the Academy very rarely does this.

1:47:09Amanda Dobbins:It's true, though. When you were just doing the five nominees and Schindler's List and Spielberg was the last example. I was like, that's symmetrical, right? That is. And, you know, they obviously are friends. We saw the first Q &A between them when we saw one battle after another at the DGAs. They, you know, they're the saviors of TCM. Like, it makes sense that he would be in that league. I don't know. What I've been telling myself is that this is a wacky Oscars year, but it's wacky in the acting categories and unpredictable in the acting categories and which it still may be, which I think which it still is, but that Best Picture has been decided for a while even though we've been trying to keep it spicy.

1:47:59Amanda Dobbins:That's how I'm justifying it.

1:48:01Sean Fennessey:I think you're right. This is easily the closest we've ever matched in our picks. The fact that we matched on all three shorts, the fact that we didn't... I didn't do a lot of zagging here. I don't feel good about the MBJ pick. Even though I think all the logic that we talked through makes sense. Supporting actress, if I get it wrong, I can live with that. You know, that's just a... Same. It's been a weird race. We barely even talked about Teyana Taylor. If she was the first person to go up on stage on Oscar night, I wouldn't be surprised either. That's just a wild category. 23 of 24 for us, man.

1:48:34Sean Fennessey:I mean, are we just too similar? Are we sharing a hive mind?

1:48:39Amanda Dobbins:I mean, yes. We definitely spend way too much time together. We definitely talk about things too much. I do, I wonder if some of it is that

1:48:52Sean Fennessey:There's just two movies.

1:48:54Amanda Dobbins:Yeah. And two movies we both like. Yeah.

1:48:56Sean Fennessey:I've got 10 awards going to two movies and you've got 11 awards going to two movies.

1:49:01Amanda Dobbins:Marty Supreme blanked in my predictions.

1:49:04Sean Fennessey:Me as well.

1:49:06Amanda Dobbins:Tough. Didn't deserve it.

1:49:08Sean Fennessey:Secret Agent also blanked in my predictions.

1:49:11Amanda Dobbins:Really tough. Didn't deserve it.

1:49:13Sean Fennessey:Frankenstein winner of three awards? Two awards. Three. Three awards?

1:49:16Amanda Dobbins:Makeup, production, and costume. It's their choice, not ours. We don't vote.

1:49:23Sean Fennessey:Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time? What do you call that?

1:49:26Amanda Dobbins:I would call that my daily existence. So welcome. How intriguing.

1:49:30Sean Fennessey:How intriguing. How does it feel? When will you show us the real you?

1:49:33Amanda Dobbins:Never.

1:49:36Sean Fennessey:One of these days. I'm going to get it out. Get it out and show the world. Any closing thoughts?

1:49:42Amanda Dobbins:I'm looking forward to it

1:49:44Sean Fennessey:Me too

1:49:44Amanda Dobbins:I'm ready I love watching the Oscars

1:49:46Sean Fennessey:Me too I'm very excited for the show I hope it's a great show Thank you to everyone who's been listening and following along with us for this very long protracted awards season

1:49:54Amanda Dobbins:Yeah, make it earlier next year

1:49:56Sean Fennessey:Yeah, please Earlier February

1:49:57Amanda Dobbins:Let's go

1:49:58Sean Fennessey:Thank you to Jack Sanders for his work on this episode and his coverage as our producer throughout this awards season Thanks to Lucas Cavanaugh for production support On Sunday night we will see you before the Academy Awards It's 3 p.m. PT, 6 p.m. ET. Tune in. We'll talk about this all over again. Yeah, and just a reminder,

1:50:18Amanda Dobbins:the Oscars start at 4 p.m. Pacific, 7 p.m. Eastern. You're welcome, ABC.

1:50:25Sean Fennessey:And we will come to you immediately after the telecast. Even if it's six hours long, we will be here in studio recapping the entire show live on Netflix. We'll see you then.

1:51:00Sean Fennessey:We'll see you next time.

1:51:11Sean Fennessey:Okay, one judgment.

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1:51:17Sean Fennessey:Upfront payment of$45 for three-month plan, equivalent to$15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only,

1:51:22Amanda Dobbins:then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com.