A Gutty Spurs Win, Angry Knicks Fans, Game 4 Thoughts, and NBA Draft Movements With Rob Mahoney and J. Kyle Mann

22:10Bill Simmons:The Bridges thing was huge for them, though, because he got the two fouls almost immediately. Never got going. 28 minutes, two points. And that was their best shooter. Which game was that? Game one or game two? He had that one lights out game. I think he was great in game two, though. too as well though like playing with the bench and gave them some yeah a really critical lift in that one like they need mikhail bridges uh it's i know that's a pretty straightforward thing to say but particularly during those stretches where brunson and or towns are out he's one of their most reliable ball handlers it can't all be jose alvarado and somehow jordan clarkson like i i'm still right shocked that we got honest to goodness positive jordan clarkson minutes in the NBA finals.

22:53LeBron James couldn't get that out of him in the finals, yet here the Knicks are. I wouldn't bet on that happening again. Like, they need McHale in those stretches more than anything to be a ball handler, to be a shooter, to be a facilitator for their offense, too.

23:07Bill Simmons:Two days from now, we're playing again. Wednesday. Who does that help more? I don't know. Do you see a tilting advantage just based on that timeline? I feel like that's a pretty neutral one. the only thing I would say is the Wemby piece just from what we saw in the last series when there was the one day rest between the games like he had a couple games in that OKC series which were just strange where he just seemed like he had concrete sneakers on I thought he was I mean we probably should have talked about him earlier than just now I thought he was really good today like he was because the Knicks now know not to challenge him on certain things So whatever, he had three blocks, but he, they're just so aware of him at all times.

23:52Bill Simmons:And I thought he was prowling. They really figured out a way to kind of unleash him all over the place. They were hiding him on different guys. Um, I think they learned their lesson with trying not to put them out 25 feet from the basket on towns too much. Um, and then offensively he was near the basket in the first three quarters way more than, than he used to be. So, um, I thought he actually could have had even more than 32 points. He missed, they had the three taken away. he missed a couple shots around that easily could have been a 40 point game for him. I think not only the timeout stuff you mentioned in terms of just finding ways to keep him on the floor for longer stretches, but finding ways to decrease how much he has to do all the time turned out to be really important.

24:32Like you saw the Spurs mix in a little zone. You saw him like experiment, which is like, what happens if we have Wimby on Landry Shammott in the corner, Mikael Bridges in the corner, OG and Anobi in the corner. How do we keep him out of the action? And then on offense, how do we make it so that when he goes to set a screen, he doesn't have to go from the block all the way up to half court every single time to set a high ball screen because Stefan Castle is having a hard time getting it across the line or whatever. Like, those are little things. But when you pile them up over 40 minutes, all of a sudden you're fresher in the fourth quarter.

25:02All of a sudden he has more to give you down the stretch. And he can be more assertive getting to the basket over and over and over because you make these other parts of his life a little bit easier.

25:12Bill Simmons:Brunson 83 points 81 shots in three games it's pretty fucking good I did find myself a little surprised by Cat has been awesome but the prevalence of Carl Anthony Towns should be the finals MVP if the series ended today coming off of one and two I get it I understand the logic I just don't know how we fall into it so soon after like the Andre Iguodala Steph stuff where it's like, do you reward the guy who drafts off the attention or do you reward the guy who creates the attention? And Jalen Brunson draws everyone's eyes, everyone's focus when he's on the floor. Like, he's scoring this much despite being clearly the number one item in the scouting report and getting all of the defensive focus, but also the traps that we've seen throughout this series.

26:01Like, I don't know how he does this, frankly. And I remain just shocked and amazed at how impressive he is night to night.

26:09Bill Simmons:You were preaching... to the choir, Rob Mahoney. I'm glad. On two topics. One, look, I know we all have to make content. We all have to come up with angles and do topics. We cannot have segments about who's the finals MVP after two games. In a game where you have to win four to win the series, not to mention the series might extend past four games. It's unacceptable. You could say, wow, Towns is playing like a finals MVP, but you just can't do it. So that's one thing. Just stop. I don't want to hear it. I don't want to engage with it. Stop. Second, what you just said about Brunson and the Curry-Eguidala thing is one of my passion points in life.

26:56Bill Simmons:The best part should always win finals MVP unless something fucking crazy happened, right? Curry-Eguidala is a good example. and I think Curry should have won it either way, but it's like, yeah, all they're doing is worrying about him for six games. There's all of these positive effects that just come from having this guy that's this good out there. You have to be the MVP. I felt the same way about Tatum two years ago. Yeah. Brown took it, but Tatum did the most on the Celtics. Like he should have won finals MVP. He was the best guy in the deciding game and had the biggest responsibility. And for some, you know, the dumbest was when Parker won in 07.

27:36Bill Simmons:I think that one actually makes me madder than Iguodala, where Duncan's just the best guy. He's the reason they won the title. He's the reason they've... But Parker had a hot series against a crappy finals team. And it's like, our finals MVP is Tony Parker. It's like, Tim Duncan's the most important guy in the league. What are we doing? That's probably some offense-defense bias, too, with, you know, like the guard who's driving a lot of stuff naturally gets a lot of attention as those things go. So there's a lot in play with Tony Parker for sure. Yeah. Let's settle it now. Brunson and Wemby are the two best guys in this series.

28:07Bill Simmons:And whoever wins, they should win the MVP. I mean, if I'm not mistaken, Carl Towns, I'm not trying to drag Cat through the mud. He's been amazing. I thought he was great defensively again today, despite Wemby getting some impressive numbers. I don't think he has scored a basket in the fourth quarter for the entire series yet. Is that true? He's certainly scoreless in the fourth tonight. And I believe he was in games one and two as well. Well, ironically, finals MVP has not moved. Brunson and Wemby are the two favorites, Brunson's even. For the series itself, the Knicks are now minus 184 on FanDuel.

28:42So game four, Wednesday night, which was going to be exciting either way.

28:48Bill Simmons:It was either going to be the classic, somebody's up 2-1. Game fours are always amazing. They're usually my favorite game of the series, unless there's a game seven. So we either had the Knicks trying to win their first finals in 53 years, or we have this awesome setup for game four. If you had to guess the biggest tweak one of the two teams is going to make, what is it? Because I'm probably leaning toward the Knicks side on the tweak. I don't know that we're going to see any dramatic tweaks, though. You think we're in? These are our cards? I think these are mostly the cards. I think the lineups are going to remain the same.

29:24I think the coverages and the matchups are going to remain mostly the same. it's going to be little stuff, right? It's going to be like, like one little tweak in this game that I thought made a big difference was in the first quarter, especially when Wemby would go up to set ball screens, he would actually set a screen versus doing his little, like I'm going to hold out my hands and sort of hip check you maneuver. And it turns out making contact on a screen really helps. And then all of a sudden the spurs, the guards are getting downhill and it's driving the entire offense. So there's going to be stuff like that, right?

29:51Like little things that pop on film. In that regard, I would think for the Knicks specifically, It is how do you create some airspace for Cat during those stretches where the offense comes up? How do you make it so? I mean, this is what's hard when you want to give the ball to Towns and run all this off-ball action that's been working so well for the Knicks in these playoffs. If the defense and the Spurs are good enough to do this can somehow batten down all the hatches and keep all those guys under wraps, you're just like bleeding clock as he stands there with the ball sometimes. And so it's like, how do you get a little more free and clear movement where there's something popping up and you're not driving all of those possessions into 20 plus seconds on the shot clock yeah that makes sense i would say sham it 23 minutes tonight was a minus 20 was

30:36Bill Simmons:one for eight one for seven from three probably a quicker trigger for him next time would be i was really surprised bridges didn't play more in the fourth quarter and i thought i actually thought he had five fouls yeah and i was texting with nick's fan friend of mine who said he had five and I looked it up and he had four and he finished with four. But I don't know. I think game four to me is a ride with our guys game. But this is all five of those guys are going to be at 40 or around 40 minutes with, and then the bench will fill in the rest. But I think that would be my prediction, especially two days off until the Saturday game.

31:10I think it makes total sense to ride with your guys at this point. I would just argue that Landry Shammott is one of their guys. He's a hero of New York. He's earned the right to be on the floor in these moments. and yeah, I wouldn't say this was his best game by any stretch, but they do need his gravity. They do need the attention that he draws. Mikhail can do a lot of those things too. And so if that's the trade-off, yeah, I agree. It can be a little steep sometimes.

31:33Bill Simmons:So what would you tell the Knick fans right now who were up to nothing in the finals coming off a miracle winning game two with an emotional game three that was the hardest ticket probably in the history of the NBA, I'm guessing. And now it's 2-1. And game four is on Wednesday. And all those old skeletons are starting to peep out of the poltergeist pool again. What would be? How would you calm them down? I would tell the Knicks, not that they need this reassurance, but in any game, I expect any close game, I expect them to win. Like, I expect Jalen Brunson to pull every like crazy one-footed fadeaway that he needs to make in order to keep these games competitive.

32:13if OG and Anobi hit a crazy corner three to trim this thing to win a bowl eight. The Spurs needed both the castle jumper and the fox jumper just to win this one. Yes, the margins are thin. Yes, crazy things can happen under those circumstances, but every indicator says this is a very, very close clutch time kind of series, and the Knicks are the clutch time kings of these playoffs. So what reason would we have to doubt them even after a game like this?

32:39Bill Simmons:That's fair. And if I'm the Spurs, if I'm my Spurs fans, I know a few of them too. The series should be one and a half to one and a half. I don't think it works that way. Well, it doesn't. So you lost a half. You're down 2-1. You were up double figures in all three games. You had the lead in the last two minutes of all three games. Your young team actually kind of came through with some big moments and ramped up the defense in a really, really special way in the second half and feels like it's getting better and is now used to the speed of the Knicks and the finals and just all of it. And seems like just in a better place than they were in game one when they just seemed like, whoa, the finals is fast.

33:22Bill Simmons:Wow. Look at this. I thought they handled the speed the right way today. So I'm this person like, fuck it, man. We have five and seven at home. Right? We just need to get back to seven somehow. We just need to win two the next three and then seven's at our house. We need a 2-2. All road wins going into a game five. Like that's all we can hope for at this point. I wonder if that's ever happened. I would have. Oh, I guess that's happened in 77. Cause that's what, oh no. Yeah. That's what happened in 77. Portland won the second two. Oh no, that was in Portland though. Yeah. No, I don't think that's, I don't think that would ever have happened.

34:02Seems pretty unlikely. I mean, there've been plenty of like O2 series that have flipped in reverse course in the NBA finals. Like Mikael Bridges has been a part of one of them. You know, the Mavs did it against the Heat in 06. They were up 2-0 and blew that series. So it's like it has happened.

34:18Bill Simmons:But usually you're home for the first part of the flip. That's the thing. You're not on the road. It's the all-road wins for now three and potentially four games. But even that's getting ahead of ourselves. I've been saying this all playoffs, Rob. I don't think home court matters like it used to, even though it's fun to go to the games. Even this home court? Even Mariska Hargitay's home court? even when you have Larry David sitting next to Bob Craft and Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro. And then you have Chalamet next to Spike Lee with Safdie. Yeah, this was a real BS pod rewatchables murderer. Tina Fey was there.

34:54Yeah, there was. Incredible.

34:55Bill Simmons:Tina Fey's next to Tracy Morgan. I thought for sure we'd get Lorne Michaels tonight. Maybe for game four. I saw Irving Azoff under the basket. It was like all the OGs. And then you, you know, Dolan, who I think usually watches from the stands, but if Trump's like, I'm coming, it's the president. Yeah. You kind of can't say no. So now he's in a suite and I'm sure he's like, I would have better luck if I was in my seats. But getting cucked in your own building to go sit with Donald Trump is tough. It is tough. but I think from the home court standpoint I don't know what's different about it I always felt like when I was growing up and especially being a Celtic fan and some of the games we had, I just felt like if it was a must win game we were winning and we could affect the refs it just you would have the momentum, it was just the way it went and the stats back it up for years and years it was 90-95 % and now we see all this time you just go into somebody else's house and you can win whenever you want.

35:58Bill Simmons:I don't really understand it. I don't know what is tilted other than clearly there's just like a lot of great competitive balance and talent around the league. But why that would explain the shift in home court advantage, I don't exactly know. Maybe it is just like travel hasn't improved enough. Is it the three-pointers? I think the threes help. But this didn't feel like a game that was swung by Spurs hot shooting. It wasn't. You know? No, I'm just trying to think of all the different reasons that could swing. Three-pointers would be one. Yep. The travel being so much better than it was in the 70s, 80s, and really through the 90s.

36:30Bill Simmons:The fact that we know more about our bodies when you're on the road and things to do and not do. Yeah. Maybe don't have steak and fried chicken and cheeseburgers at 3.30 in the morning. Might be part of it. We know that stuff. You think DoorDash has saved, has squashed home court advantage? It's too reliable to get a Chipotle bowl now. You can't. You don't have to worry about the Michael Jordan stomach virus from pizza anymore. Right. Well, you have that. And then you have, you know, when you think about the way all the shooting motions were different in the seventies and eighties, guys doing this and now everybody's off an assembly line with the way they shoot.

37:08Bill Simmons:So the technique is more reliable than it used to be. I mean, the thing that almost killed the Spurs tonight were the free throws. Oh my gosh. And yet, down the stretch, they went 10 for 10. And then Castle, I wish we had mentioned this earlier. We've both been in the building when somebody has huge, huge free throws. The most famous ones I ever remember from this was the two that Kawhi had right before the Ray Allen shot. Oh, yeah. He missed the first one. He made the second one. But sometimes when it's like you have to make both of them and you're on the road, and the crowd can go to this level, and it almost feels like they're invading the guy's body.

37:45Bill Simmons:It's so loud. And when you're in there watching and you're like, I don't understand how he's going to make these. Like, this is the most pressure I've ever seen anyone in my life. And Castle, who they ran the play for, they imbatted to Fox. He threw it right back to Castle. That was their guy. And he fucking drained him. And it was awesome. I feel like we have mentioned a lot the shot that he hit to kind of like give the Spurs the winning cushion and maybe not enough about, I mean, his physicality on these drives is unbelievable. And he's so elusive. Like, he's kind of constantly in a state of Eurostep as he gets to the basket.

38:18Like, always decelerating, always kind of challenging you to stay down and not jump so he can bait you into a foul. I just thought his drives were exceptional, especially in the first half. But late, they needed him, too. Like, they needed somebody who could bust through even tough competitive perimeter defense. And when the game is officiated this way, Stefan Kasko can absolutely do that. Like, he will dish out as much punishment as he will take. and he will somehow convert a lot of those opportunities.

38:44Bill Simmons:He does this one move that I'm not positive I've ever seen anybody do consistently before. When he goes right, he drives right into the chest and takes a step and usually you stop because there's a guy there. Yep. But then he just takes like this delayed second step and just puts it up anyway. And like one time they blocked it today, but there are other times when it just, I don't know how he does it, but he's just, you can't, he's almost like a running back who moves the line forward every time he goes into the line. On those drives, he's never losing the contact. He's always like going toward the basket.

39:18Bill Simmons:I thought he was great today. I was a little concerned about his 2011-12 range, Westbrook range. Kind of. He's got a little of that. A little like, I got this, guys. And it's like, no, no, not this time. But he was great today. And not just that I got this, guys, but he is good right now. He's playing tremendous defense on Brunson in particular on the ball. but like really, really high level stuff. And he'll come up with huge rebounds, huge hustle plays. He's doing all that. He will also at one point in literally every game commit one of the dumbest fouls against a three point shooter you have ever seen in your life.

39:51And so like you just have to live with it and you just have to accept that in the balance, OG and an OB is going to get three free throws, but you're going to get all this great defense and this great driving and this important scoring. He just does so much for them.

40:04Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's like, I feel the same way about my dog Murph. We were having a great day today. Yeah. Preparing. I was preparing for rewatchables tomorrow, taping, preparing for this pod. It's a wonderful day. And then all of a sudden, he just walked right into the pool. And it's like, why'd you do that? And he's like, I don't know. I don't know why I did it. But it was a special day and I didn't let it mar the day for me. There you go. So, yeah, I think we hit everything. Prediction for game four. Do we have to if we've just been wrong in this entire playoffs? I did not make an official prediction.

40:37Bill Simmons:prediction. I did bet on San Antonio today, but I had a Fandle bet, which I think I lost because I think Harper missed the steal. But I didn't, I honestly had genuinely had no idea what was going to happen today. There was like five different scenarios that I would have believed all the scenarios, including San Antonio just getting waxed. And at halftime, I wasn't exactly racing to live bet the Spurs right down seven. It felt like the Knicks kind of had it. So, So there'll be no Trump. It'll be a lot easier to get into game four. A lot less of a circus. And if on the Knicks, I'm hoping Wemby's a little more tired than he was today.

41:17Could be. If forced to pick, I think the Knicks will win game four. I don't feel great about it. I think they will win game four. As someone who would love to see a 2-2 game five, I hope that's not the case. But I don't know. I have come to respect so much about the way New York answers basically any challenge and their resourcefulness in terms of their playmaking and the way that they will tap into. Like, I just fully expect Mikko Bridges to come up with like 18 critical points in game four and Cat to be a really important playmaker again and Landry Shamit shooting to come back on track. It's just kind of what they've done.

41:52So if I have to choose, I think that's what's probably going to happen. But honestly, who can trust any of our predictions at this point?

42:01Bill Simmons:Do we pour one out? I'm not going to actually pour one on my desk for the Knicks. April 23rd was their last loss. It's now June 8th. June 8th, 15th anniversary of the day we launched Grantland, by the way. Shout out to June 8th. Congrats. Thanks. No longer exists, but it was a great site that I love very much. But yeah, April 23rd to June 8th. Legendary streak. Here's, this is not a prediction. But this is what I think will be the key to game for. I think that Spurs open threes are going to be even more open in game four. I think from what you've seen, when you look at, what do we have? We had Fox 0 for 5, Castle 2 for 5, Harper 1 for 8.

42:47Bill Simmons:Keldon Johnson wouldn't shoot any of them. Champagne and Vessel were 6 for 11. I just think they give those guards those threes and play off the ball, go way under the picks. and guys, we don't think you can make these. Knock them down for us. And if the Spurs knock them down, they're going to go back 2-2. And if they don't knock them down, they're going to be down 3-1. Yeah, that is kind of the crunch when the Spurs do play their three guards together. And they seem to like closing that way, at least for part of the fourth quarter in crunch time, if not the entire time. A lot of ball handling.

43:20But if all three of those guards are not defended, and I would say at minimum, they're not defended in the way that Vassell and Champagny are. Like the Knicks hug those shooters a little bit more than they do Fox and Harper and Castle. But having two of those guys off the ball, if you're going to play all three guards together, that's a lot of crunch. I don't think it's an accident that the Spurs, even though they have all that ball handling and they were able to make some things happen, also didn't have any real flow in terms of like getting an actual downhill drive that then kicked out into something on a lot of those possessions.

43:49Bill Simmons:And they were playing way off. Harper was kind of in front of the Knicks bench down the stretch. and they were just playing way off him and they didn't really care if he shot and they wanted to funnel him toward Towns anyway. Spurs only had eight turnovers and 28 assists. That's the one. I think the 16 turnovers in game two, all that driving, all of that play, like working through pressure, eight turnovers is just unbelievable stuff. Shout out to Steve Kerr, who loves nothing more than a lot of assists and low turnovers on a box score. I'm sure he's going to look at this tomorrow and be like, wow, 28 and eight.

44:20Bill Simmons:That's wonderful. I love it. But yeah, if they're going to have less than 10 turnovers and they're going to have 32 free throws, you're probably going to send them to win. All right, Rob Mahoney, what TV show am I... What TV show... Oh, Doc Rivers texted me and wanted to mention that they finally pulled the Wemby on Josh Hart. Yeah. That he was pushing for that Thales series. What TV show should we watch between Game 3 and Game 4? Definitely Widow's Bay, which is great, although it seems like you have more mixed impressions so far. I'm going to give it one more episode. I'm two in. You know what's starting right now, though, that definitely has my attention is this Cape Fear remake on Apple TV.

45:00Bill Simmons:Saw both. Saw both episodes. Oh, just you wait for three. Yeah? Things are getting very spicy, very interesting. If you like a little bit of trash in your TV, which Cape Fear certainly is, I just think you're going to have a great, sweaty, Georgian time with it. So come along for the ride for that. Well, we're doing From Hell Rewatchables right now. And the show does check some of my boxes. Most importantly, the really stupid either father, mother, or both. And in this case, both of them are really stupid and just seem oblivious to a lot of the things that are happening, which I always enjoy. You got dumb parents.

45:36You got outright stalking. You have a lot of ominous dead animals. I mean, what more could you ask for?

45:41Bill Simmons:You have severed digits. Yeah, it's good. When I saw they were making it, I was like, ah, why? Why are we? Come on. Why? But then Scorsese is an EP. They got Anton Chigurh. He's the lead guy. Good to see him again. He must have survived the car accident. But yeah, no, it was good. I liked the first two episodes. All right, Rob Mahoney. This was a true pleasure and a privilege to stay up late with you after Game 3. We're going to take a break and we're going to come back with your friend Kyle Mann. We're going to talk a little NBA draft right after this. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner.

46:19Bill Simmons:of the NBA. My favorite NBA finals moment ever. Well, I have two. One was when I was six years old and I went to the famous triple overtime game in 1976, Boston versus Phoenix that the Celtics won and became, I still think the most famous NBA game of all time. It's either that or one of the Jordan games. I like to claim it as the most famous since I was there. But the other one was game five, 1984 finals, 2-2, Lakers, Celtics. And it is so hot in the Boston Garden that people are passing out in the stands. Everyone's sweating all over the place. The Lakers are taking oxygen on the bench and Larry Bird, unfazed.

46:58Bill Simmons:I think he had 35 points, 20 rebounds. It was just awesome. And won the game. Gave them a 3-2 lead. They won in seven. And that is my favorite finals game ever. There's a lot of great moments. I was lucky to be there, by the way. There's a lot of great moments on the court, but the best ones are served cold, just like Michelob Ultra right here. A superior light beer that's only 95 calories. Yeah, 95 calories. Even better, they're getting people closer to the game with a chance to win tickets, custom merch, and much more. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash Quartzsite.

47:34Bill Simmons:Michelob Ultra Quartzsite 2526. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. Residents 21+. begins on October 1st, 2025, ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at makelobaltra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and prizes and details. It's finally here, the NBA Finals, Spurs versus Knicks. Each game, I've been looking at the matchups and sharing my favorite picks from FanDuel Sportsbook on my Twitter feed. Usually a same game parlay, usually tied to if you think one of the sides is going to win, here is what I think the roadmap would be. So we'll see. I definitely have 48 hours to think about what happened in game three and how that might affect game four.

48:18Bill Simmons:Stay tuned on Wednesday for the pick. When I bet, I bet with FanDuel, a brand I trust, it's easy to build NBA bets on FanDuel. Super duper easy. Easier each year. 2026, the easiest year it's ever been. I know I'm getting great odds, payouts on my parlays, boosts every day, and I'll get my winnings instantly. FanDuel, play your game. All right, J. Kyle Mann is here from The Ringer. He is on The Ringer NBA Show. He is one of the many good people that help with our Ringer NBA Draft Guide, which I love. We're two weeks away, plus a day, Kyle Mann. This is some draft. I've changed my opinion on the order of the top four 17 times.

48:59Bill Simmons:I have no idea who's going fifth or picking fifth. I have no idea what OKC is going to do with 12 and 17. we have no idea if the bucks are going to have 10 and 13 if they trade Giannis in time. Um, what, what's the biggest up in the air subplot to you? That's not one of the top four picks. Oh, I mean, yeah, you said you've changed yours, uh, 17 or I'm, I'm probably going to, if I can be shy of like 25 changes at the top, that'll be good. But aside from that, I can't, cause I'm going to, I'm going to state some strong opinions that I have that might still change. I think the biggest thing, and I think this is probably, you've been doing this longer than I have, but inevitably you start thinking about the playoff lens.

49:42Yeah. Specifically, if you think of, you know, being in the NBA as, you know, a poker table where there's a buy-in, you know? Like, what does it cost to sit down at this table? What does it take? I think that these playoffs, specifically like if you just watch the Thunder and the Spurs and you imagine those teams are going to be around for how long? Some form of those teams dominated by these big guards, these incredible rangy bigs I think how this affects these guards at the top because we have talked about this this assumed order where we're like well you know the next guys that you got to take and you look at every mock draft it's like you got to take one of those guards you have to do it there's a gun to your head and the more that I watch these playoffs and I see guys like Shay you know Shay or Stefan Castle or Dylan Harper bulldozing every living breathing human in front of him, I'm like, who is not going to get picked on is a question that I've asked myself a lot when I watch these guys, when I watch a Kingston Flemings, who I love, when I watch a LeBaron Phylon, who I love, or when I watch a Darius Acuff, you know, who I like a lot.

50:44I have problems with Acuff we could talk about, but that's the biggest thing I've been thinking about is like, who's not going to get picked on? Because in the playoffs, man, the links of your chain, if you have one that's weak, you got a big problem. And that's kind of what's been on my mind with these guards lately.

50:57Bill Simmons:And also where have we gone wrong in the past? And I think Castle is a great example where you only have one year to watch a guy. He's on a great team that didn't really need his offense that much. Um, he was relegated to a role. People overlooked some stuff with him, especially the pedigree. And he ends up going forth, which is just nuts. When you go back and you look at that draft now, it's insane. Um, I look at Mara like that, the center, which I've seen in different mock drafts. He'll be in like the mid-teens in some, and like people will be like, well, I just don't think there's any way he's not a top 10 pick with what we're watching with how many guards are in this draft.

51:37Bill Simmons:And you can't tell me that every team needs a guard. At some point, somebody from eight to 10 is either that's picking in those spots or is going to try to trade up to those spots because they don't really need a guard. Like OKC is a great example. OKC doesn't need another guard, but they need somebody like Mara is somebody that could actually potentially play for them and give them Hartenstein insurance. So I just feel like he's going eight to 10. And I feel like one of these guards is going to drop because this is what we've seen. The cluster theory. I've seen I looked at a mock today. I think it was it was Sam Vesany on Vesany or Vesany?

52:14Bill Simmons:I'm sorry, Sam. Unless he hasn't corrected me his friend in three years that's my pronunciation dyslexia um sam bassini had filing i think dropping out of the top 15 it's going to happen with one of these point guards and we're going to think it's crazy yeah yeah yeah well think about it how many teams are like all right this is an awesome draft this is a real pedigree pick and i don't need a guard why do i have to take phylon um i don't know i just think weird stuff's going to happen when we get out of the top four and that's before we get into all the trade up trade down stuff which i think is really in play this year well this might interest you because you're the you're one of the basketball reference filter you know aficionados i know you love to go on these dives i did on i went on last five playoffs so going back to you know the the warriors sorry to bring this up but the warriors went over the celtics in 22 i hope i'm not fired for doing that but uh over 100 minutes played for guards who are 6 '2 or under.

53:16Some of these guys were listed at like 6 '4, and we saw that there was some smoke and mirrors with that. But the players who are productive at that size in the playoffs for multiple games, for a heavy minute load, it's not a long list. You're talking about guys who kind of get cups of coffee, who are quick in and outs. I mean, you could go down into the Schroeders, into the Monte Morrises, into the Fred Van Vlietts. But really, you're talking about high-impact players. It's Steph Curry, obviously. It's Peyton Pritchard, who, you know, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey, John Morant.

53:48And if you kind of go through and look at those guys, it's like, well, what's the common denominator there? I think it's that if you're going to be that size, you need to have a superpower. I mean, and the question I've been asking myself is like, could we see those superpowers when these guys were coming out or did we just miss them? You know, with Brunson, I think there were some things that we missed, even though I liked him, like some of the things that were going to translate for him. Peyton Pritchard, I think I missed a lot with him. His ball handling. You as a Celtics fan, his handling really is his superpower, right?

54:16He's become a good shooter. Is there anything else that you would say?

54:19Bill Simmons:I would say the one-on-one skills. I just think we fucked up the Brunson thing. And I'm 99.9 % sure I went kind of haywire about it during the draft that he fell out of the first round. Just because he was just a pure awesome point guard. Like, he couldn't tell me he wasn't a rotation guy. for somebody. And that just seemed like a classic overthink. But I see your point with the size, though. Curry, I wouldn't count, because I think Curry is at least... I've stood next to him. He's at least 6 '3". I don't know what he's listed at, but... I don't know. He's listed in the 6 '2". I thought he was at least two inches taller than me.

54:57Bill Simmons:But I also feel like he's a little stronger. A-cuff, to me, is the one for this conversation. Because if you're taking him, you better think he is a really, really high-end, special offensive guard. That's the only way you can justify putting him in the top seven. You have to think he's like a 25, 8, 40 % three-point shooter, really uncoverable at the end of games where teams are going to have to trap him. That would be like the roadmap for him being worth that pick because defensively it's not going to be there. Well, I think the line of question you have to go into with Acuff is Is the We all kind of know about the defensive stuff.

55:41That's been well documented. If you watch him there, you could pick at him for the physical issues where it's like, I've kind of wondered if he's laterally very mobile, if he's going to, he's not like a super vertical athlete, things like that. He's going to get attacked. You know, Brunson is good of a player. Brunson's very competitive defensively and he still gets attacked. He does what he can. You kind of have to ask yourself, is this, you know, something that was a bug of, of this Arkansas team this past year where he carried one of the biggest offers? loads in the country. He was the only guy on their team that was capable of making a consistent good decision.

56:13He ran that team. And did he have to kind of rest on defense at times? Devonta kind of had the same thing going on at BYU. Or is it something that he could just choose to, and we're overrating this, we're maybe leaning into this too much. No, we're not overrating it.

56:27Bill Simmons:We're not overrating it. Just asking questions. Yeah, yeah. No, I think it's a fair question. But the question is, is the other stuff so good you just put it on the side? Everybody's got some flaws, right? Castle, even Castle, who I love, has that kind of Westbrook side where he's a little out of control at the worst possible times, and that's his flaw.

56:51Bill Simmons:I get more worried about a guy like Brown. And Brown has creeped up. He's creeped up to five in the conversation for the Clippers because the Clippers are basically like, we're not taking a point card. We just went all in on Garland. so unless we trade back it's either wogler or brown or burris it's gonna be one of those three and you're higher on brown than most you really like i don't know you seem like you at least really like the ceiling are you doing the louisville thing to me well you like the idea of him i just but you you also recognize the red flags uh i've kind of like worked through my cautious optimism with him through this offseason because this the regular season was just weird man i mean like he he was he you could go into the speculation about why that stuff happened i'm not willing to like openly just like you if you're gonna do that you have to like throw people personally under the bus i'm not gonna go that direction at like right now but like if you watch him his consistency as a shooter can he get to the rim and score i mean those are the two basic things and if you if you're gonna be the player type that he is uh and have big struggles in that area and then also are you going to be you know vulnerable defensively i think those three things are very much up in the air with him right now and if you if you look at uh i i've compared him to he's he's definitely in the like phylum of anthony simons and keante george for me which is your face said a lot there um if he's going to be an inefficient skinny guard who can't get to the rim and he's streaky from three that's an archetype that's it you're going to at best going to be like be like the third scorer on a team i think right it's hard to be the primary if you're going to be that that type of player my weakness is when i and i feel like i've been good at evaluating the draft for over the years i think my i've had more hits than misses my two weaknesses are when there's not enough kind of kind of data slash tape on a guy and you're projecting like somebody like wiseman i just completely missed on wiseman there was basically didn't play any games.

58:55Bill Simmons:And you're just basically looking at the prototype of him versus what he actually did. The other one that kills me over and over again is the raw talent could go either way guy. I just tend to discount those guys. They make me nervous. Like to me, I would just, I know Burris is going to be good. I'm positive. I don't know how good he is. I don't know if he can be a lead guard that can run your offense. Cause we would have said with Castle, even the stuff he was doing in the two OKC games without Fox and with a compromised Harper. Like, I don't think anybody would have predicted he could have done that two years ago.

59:29Bill Simmons:And I wonder with Burris, like, I know that's like he's a prototypical, too. Is he ever going to be able to beat people off the dribble? I'm just betting on that, dude. I'm betting on the competitiveness. I think he has the right size. And I think we always forget this with these young guys, like the stuff they're missing now might not be stuff they're missing five years from now. You know, they're going to work on this and they're going to try to get better and better at the things they're not good at. I'm betting on that guy. So if I'm the Clippers and it's between Wagler and Burris, and I know what Wagler has the higher pedigree, I would just rather trade picks with Sacramento, pick up an asset and take Burris at seven.

1:00:03Bill Simmons:I think that's a smarter move. Yeah. If you look at these finals and you look at the Western conference finals, I've circled back. I've liked Burris the whole process, but I've, I've felt pretty validated and liking him a lot and having him high watching these playoffs. Cause I think if you just, if you look at how you're building teams, I mean, if you have any kind of a weakness, if you look at just even like the Knicks and the Spurs, the Spurs have a few weaknesses that the Knicks are picking at, you know? And the Spurs came into this series looking at the Knicks, thinking there were some weaknesses that have turned out not to be.

1:00:33So I just think, and I've watched Burries and looked at these series and thought to myself, I could have seen him logging big minutes, not just minutes, like being seriously on the floor a lot in that Thunder Spurs series or this finals. And if you look at some of these other guys, I'm not sure about that with Mike L Brown. Um, you know, I'm not sure about that with Darius. It could happen because Brunson is kind of in the same mold as, as, uh, as, uh, as Darius, a cuff, but I'm pretty sure about Burries being on the floor and major.

1:01:03Bill Simmons:I'm all in numbers and a cuff. The problem with him is you worry that 20 years from now, he's a Darius. A cuff was a problem. He's one of those guys. And he, He basically played in five playoff games the first five years of his career, but has this incredible five-minute Twitter. This episode is brought to you by Viore. When it comes to clothes that score high in both comfort and style, Viore is my MVP. Sunday performance joggers, oh yeah. They have the perfect, I could watch a game and then go out to dinner vibe. And the meta pant, that's my number one I need to look like I tried option. Get 20 % off your first purchase at viore.com slash Simmons and discover the versatility of Viore clothing.

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1:02:53Bill Simmons:I think his tape's really good. His passing is pretty special for his size. Mara? Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's underrated. His passing is pretty special. Unusual. I just like him. If I'm at Atlanta at eight, I'm really thinking about it. because I don't really, I just committed to, I committed to Dyson 25 million a year. I paid Alexander Walker. I have Jalen Johnson. So at that point, I'm either, if I go back in and I re-sign McCollum, which I think they're probably going to do, I don't really need a point guard combined with the fact that the point guard hit or miss rate is pretty high. Whereas like a center, I felt the same way a couple of years ago with, with Klingon who everybody seemed just hesitant to take in the top 10 for some reason.

1:03:43Bill Simmons:It's like, why this guy's, you know, this guy's a potentially a premier rim defender and a really good rebounder. Like worst case scenario, this is a guy that's going to be a$25 million a year player. If he pans out. And I feel the same way about Mara. I just, I just can't see him dropping out of the top 10 with how few centers there are. Yeah. He's, he's one of those, there's this funny phenomenon that happens whenever phenomenon. It's just a funny thing that happens whenever I'm watching a player. I serve like today. I was watching Bruce Thornton from my Ohio state. Who's a little puck scoring guard that you may learn about.

1:04:17You may not. He's one of these guys that may make it. We'll see, but he's kind of a bowling ball, but they were playing Michigan and I was keeping an eye on Bruce Thornton. And I kept getting distracted by Mara. I was trying to focus on Thornton, but there was a play where Mara was on the short corner on the right side. and he got double teamed and he reached blind around the double team and whipped it with his left hand to the opposite corner on a dime. And I was just like, God, like it's hard to focus when a 7-3. And you talk about Klingon, Mara's bigger than Klingon. He's huge. So if it's, we've entered this time too, where, you know, I always say with Wimby, you can't fight fire with fire with him because there just is no one his size.

1:04:56But Mara is a better mover than I think he gets credit for. he tries to dunk everything he's got kind of a shot put baby hook thing that he does around the rim but he tries to dunk everything he's defensively really competitive I think for the Hawks you'd be presenting some like spacing questions because you'd have Daniels out there and Jalen Johnson but they'd be big and they would just kind of bludgeon people and defensively I think he's going to be pretty good so I'm with you on Mar I have him in the teens right now but that could change but

1:05:30Bill Simmons:How high before it becomes offensive to you? Anything higher than eight would be pretty stupid, I think, right? That'd be tough. I think eight's like, yeah, it's around there. Because there's, I mean, it's not a sure thing. Because we talked about Malawatch last year, who I had big reservations about. And it's like, he had some moments this year, but it's not a sure thing with him. It's those guys, how well they move in space. Because I think Klingon didn't get enough credit for how well he could sit down and move in space either. So is Mar going to be that good? I'm not so sure, but it's tricky for those guys to survive in space.

1:06:04Bill Simmons:Better in college. Well, Phylon's the guy who's going to go five to seven picks later than he should, and it's going to be stupid. He's going to have a big chip on his shoulder. I'm just telling people that's going to happen now. The Tennessee kid has been circulating in the top 10. And again, as always - I thought you were trying to provoke me over text with that the other day. Well, as always, these kids are right around the age of my son and my daughter, and I'm more sensitive than ever about being mean about nba prospects but like there was a brooklyn story the other day about they might be interested in in a man as as high as six and i i just think that would be insane and i get it it's pedigree from high school he was one of the top guys heading into college season wasn't as good as you thought but i just i can't picture him in the in either of the three either of the two conference finals we watch or the finals we're watching now i just don't think he plays no yeah him getting he's a perceived shot maker who's incredibly streaky can he get to the spots he likes to get to um he's really really rough around the rim and i was shocked by that report on the one hand i was shocked and when i saw who it was attributed to in terms of the team that was thinking about it i was like this makes no sense i I would not do this.

1:07:24Granted, they're thinking that. Okay, that makes sense. The thinking of putting him next to Yegor, who I like with conditions. Like, I like Yegor in certain narrow conditions. Like, you're going to have a guy who can... And I want to get guys who are as unconditional as possible. Like, you would fit in as many situations as possible. I don't want to have a role player that I have to have these very narrow circumstances that they work in. And if I'm going to take five playmaking players who are all rough shooters, one year and then take a 6 '9 guy who can't get to the rim and is a shaky spacer the next year?

1:07:59I don't understand. Because that was in the tweet, wasn't it? That Yegor and Nate Amen fit together? I don't see that at all. I don't think that makes sense at all.

1:08:07Bill Simmons:Don't use your picks this year to make up for some weird strategies of the year ago. I do think that's a trade-down team with OKC, though. And I don't know what their appetite is for trading backwards. But if I could get 12 and 17 and I could get more stuff from OKC beyond that and basically make them pay 140 cents on the dollar. I would really think about that. Um, because I like this draft a lot. And I think, as we said, like, there's going to be a couple guys that fall and at 12 and 17, you might get a guy who one, one guy, at least two ends up better than the guy at six. I normally don't like those trades, but I think this is such a unique draft.

1:08:42Bill Simmons:As long as you're not trading out of the top four, anywhere from five 17, like who the fuck knows, It's going to be like every other draft. The big things that are shifting is there's booze of momentum in a real way now that he might end up just going first. I think as everybody looks at these tapes and the advanced metrics, the comparisons to guys from over the years, it's just like, all right, maybe we don't overthink this. This guy is a 23 and 11 in the pros for 10 straight years. What's wrong with that? yeah well I was gonna ask you talk me through that your Friday night when I initially sent that to you and Tate and house where I was I was sitting over dinner and I just did like a thousand yard stare where I was thinking for a minute my wife's you know waving her hand in front of my face like what are you thinking about I was thinking about Boozer where I had this epiphany where I was like man if the Wizards want to be a serious team in short order and make all that not that you need to think about the players you have always but in this case you would check both boxes He would make every player that they have right now better instantly, I think.

1:09:47He'd help Saar. I think he'd make Trey Johnson, Kaishan George, Bob Carrington, all those dudes. He'd make them better. Well, I mean, that was the conclusion I came to. Initially, were you feeling that way and then you came to it? Or how did that go down?

1:10:00Bill Simmons:I didn't love the March Madness watching him where it just felt like he was one of those, let me put my head down and ram into the door over and over again, guys. right there I didn't understand why he didn't have a 15 footer yet but then the more I thought about it as well in three years from now he probably will right so we've seen him be able to like bully his way to different spots we've seen him be able to shoot from distance and he'll probably add the other thing the playmaking the rebounding like the feel for the game like he's always in the right spots and he's just it's a weird thing to say it's a weird thing to say is like a scouting report thing, but he just feels like a guy who's just been in big basketball games, like his entire fucking life.

1:10:43Bill Simmons:Like, and he's just seen it all. He's not a, you know, there's some late bloomer guys that make it, but in his case, like, I just don't think he's going to be phased. I could totally see him in the last month of basketball we watched and all of these different things. Like you could argue like fuse on the Spurs. That's the perfect guy you would want for them at the four next to Wemby. Right. So, uh, I I've been thinking a lot because I do think the Bans is going to go first, regardless of how we try to talk the boozer thing. I just think he's going to go first. Um, I think Danny's such a wild card at second and there's no way to predict it.

1:11:20Bill Simmons:And it's going to come down. He's going to take all the input from everybody, but it's ultimately come down and he's going to be watching these guys and he's going to hone in on some sort of specific thing that he's been able to do over and over again. He did it with Tatum. He did it with Brown. He did it when he was going to take Durant. Over and over again, he looks at the high-end talent guys and just is able to project them. And you would think it's going to happen with Peterson, but I think there's too many red flags. I think he's going to stay away from Peterson, and I could see him taking Boozer at two.

1:11:53Bill Simmons:would be my, that would be like my, my, my one S one 30 bet right now. I might be wrong, but I really think they're going to take Boozer. I do. I don't, I don't, I can't explain it. I think they're going to take Boozer at two. You think the jazz are going to take Boozer at two? That'd be interesting way based on what, because that would be going with what we were talking about. Like just taking a guy cause you like him because at three, four, five, the jazz, I mean, you went out of your way to get Jaron Jackson and you have Lowry Markman and you have Kessler, you have, you know, Ace Bailey. I was thinking about Ace Bailey though what do you think the compare and contrast there is like his situation last year at five I mean remember it's easy to forget and what did he do they went for the talent right and they were just they were like yes we know there's a lot of noise around that Ainge just has a way of just being like I'm not I kind of feel like he has a way of not being as bothered by some of that stuff right like he just kind of weren't there kind of questions about Tatum having distraction around him too when he was coming in where people are like, I don't know.

1:12:54You know, you're, you probably remember that better, but I feel like I remember hearing things about that with Tatum when he was coming in.

1:13:00Bill Simmons:Well, think about when they, but think about when they did the Tatum move, they already had Jalen Brown and they had Hayward. Right. So it's like, and when, when they did the trade down and they were going to take Tatum, it was like, well, this is weird. They're going to take another wing. How many wings do you need? But his attitude was, this is where basketball is going. I don't think you can have enough wings. we're going to have awesome wings out there all the time. We'll have at least two, we'll play three together. And that's how we're going to think. So that's why with the boozer thing, I can't shake the feeling I have in my gut that he's just going to be like, well, we have too many forwards and like, we don't have enough guards.

1:13:37Bill Simmons:Well, is it a bad thing to have size and shooting all over the place and interchangeability? And, you know, if marketing would be the piece that I guess you would, you could potentially trade or move or move for a guard, but I think it's way harder to find good forwards and good guards right now. Yeah. I mean, ball forwards with the skills that Boozer has. Skilled forwards is a premium, you know? His dad also is, I don't know. Well, that's the other thing. They're under the hood with Boozer. They're under the hood with Boozer and DeBansa. They know those kids. They know the families. They know those guys would be happy in Utah, which is a whole other piece.

1:14:15Bill Simmons:And Peterson's like such a wild card. And so the season he had was weird. What am I bringing in? What if he doesn't like it here? What happened to him last year? What was that creatine thing? You know, if he takes Peterson, then that will make me think Peterson is going to be awesome because that would mean Danny's like, I've overlooked all these other red flags. I'm not going to take this guy that I know is going to be good because I think this guy might be Kobe. Right. So if he, if they take him second, I feel like he would have to have landed on that. And I know it's like his son's there, Austin, and the owner's there.

1:14:49Bill Simmons:I know it's not going to be Danny's call, but they're going to... He's too good at this. Like at some point, if he's convinced on a certain guy, that's going to, I think, be the guy they take. I think of the top three guys, I mean, Peterson's personality on his team and his dynamic with his teammates is obviously the most in question. And this year, you know, after the year that we just saw, Boozer, you never hear a word about him as a teammate. DeBansa, I mean, DeBansa, I... I haven't heard anything like that. I mean, you know, I know his dad's really involved. He's a real no-nonsense dude. But I haven't heard anything like...

1:15:23You just don't hear the same things about those two guys as opposed to Peterson. So, I mean, Peterson is the most...

1:15:29Bill Simmons:And it's not like we're hearing bad stuff about Peterson. There's just like... Yeah. This is a pick that could make or break... The way that was handled was odd. Well, I think Fultz, who's a completely different story and a completely different guy, is a good prism to look at this. Like, you missed that Fultz pick and don't take Tatum. that sets you back five years, you know, and you're betting on somebody that wasn't physically a hundred percent and, you know, maybe wasn't wired the same way Tatum was. And it worked out the way it did. So with Peterson, I think the Peterson one is the toughest dilemma in a long time with the high school tape versus what happened in the past year.

1:16:04Bill Simmons:And I don't know, I don't think there's a right answer. I don't think somebody can be five years from now. Like I told you, like, there's no way to know it's two separate. Cause that high school tape, we've talked about is some of the best high school tape I've ever seen of a guard. And I, and maybe Danny would watch that and go, ah, but the thing is, if Boozer goes to, is Memphis really going to take Peterson three? Cause that would be weird too. Like, I think that I really think there's a chance Peterson go for, and we, and Gavoni was on somewhere was saying like, Peterson is the best prospect in this draft.

1:16:41Bill Simmons:He should go first. I don't know. I could see him going forth too. It's such a hard one to target. I'd go ahead and take him if I'm Memphis. I mean, you think about Howard and Peterson together. Why not? What's the, is there something that you, what are you worried about with him? I mean, he could come in and be your best player the way he wants. They have some guys there already. I mean, think about Edie at the five if he's healthy. Is it Wilson the most Memphis guy possible? Other than maybe Boozer? I would say Boozer is the most Memphis guy. Both of those guys. I think Haykos has a lot of Memphis to him too.

1:17:13Yeah. Wilson doesn't strike me. I mean, we're just, we're, you know, putting the personality of our franchise on a guy. I mean, Wilson doesn't strike me as much as Memphis-y, but Wilson's the interesting one because you'll hear people.

1:17:27Bill Simmons:Well, I was talking with Wilson. I was just talking about the guy fucking gives a shit and tries his ass off. And that's like kind of the culture they've tried to build over the last 20 years. I think all four of these guys do, though. That's the thing. It's just, I think, you know, Peterson is. You can't say that about Peterson. That's, I mean, And he was just leaving games and not coming back. I don't know. I know weird shit was going on physically, but that's still a red flag for me. And I polled some people about the creatine thing, and they acted like that was kind of flimsy. I heard some mixed responses to that.

1:18:04He's the most talented shot maker in the draft, and I think he's the most talented scorer in the draft. It's not close. But like we've talked about, you know, you can't just draft a guy for talent. Because if we were just drafting people for talent, it's your personality, how you jive with your teammates. All those things matter. And so, you know, I watched in Kentucky at a high school event. I watched AJ and Darren go head-to-head. And Darren was better, like, pretty clearly. Not even close. I mean, kind of dominated. And you hear stories from people who have watched many of those matchups and said Darren won every single time.

1:18:40What do you think about that? You know, it's like he's he's going to be an elite dribble pull up shooter. I think he'll be able to play off the ball. He is great middle game. He's a great athlete. Is he like a super duper elite athlete? I don't know, but he's a very good one. And I think he's a good passer. I think at times guys have to make shots for your numbers to look good at times.

1:18:59Bill Simmons:Sounds like you're back in on him. Well, this is this is the this is the maddening thing about these this top four is that I have gone back and forth over and over again. Right now, I'm kind of sitting at I kind of think I would take Boozer one. I know House wants his shot-making, you know, sexy score. Something to be excited about for the future. I think the most, I'll say it again, I think the most efficient, direct, straight-line way for the Washington Wizards to be a great basketball team is to take Boozer first. And I think they'd be good. They'd be serious. They'd be, like, playing possibly by next year.

1:19:31I think that could be possible for them.

1:19:34Bill Simmons:Wow. You don't agree. No, I... DeBansa reclass... I'm at the mode now with the research where I'm doing reclassifying research, how DeBansa reclassified after 8th grade. And he's actually... I think he's 10 or 11 months older than Flagg? I think they're like a month apart, if I'm not mistaken. Is that what it is? Hold on. So Flagg's December 2006. Oh, you're right. This is August. Flagg's a month older than DeBansa. Yes. That's what it is. Okay. Do you worry about that much, though? Because I'm, you know, as a parent, these little boys, I mean, you know, we do have that conversation about when you start, because I used to think that was a big deal.

1:20:22And you talk with their kindergarten teachers. It's just lamer than you think. Some people, I mean, if you think your son's going to be an athlete, I guess it depends on when they move them from grade to grade. But I don't know. Burry's is a little bit older. That doesn't work. Burry's the second year guy.

1:20:37Bill Simmons:But people are holding that against Burry's. if he were if he were a sophomore would you give a shit like i just don't i don't care about that like i you know it's not like they're i didn't say i cared either way i'm saying i'm at the point of the research where i'm doing the deep dive on other guys that have reclassified over the years and it's like i see and it's like uh oh josh jackson he was a reclassifier i think caleb's similar to josh jackson right i mean i don't or not josh jackson i'm thinking of Josh Smith from the Hawks. A little similarity there. This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG.

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1:22:42Bill Simmons:NMLS 910457. Well, regardless, I would be excited to have the fourth pick in this draft. And I don't normally say that because you're getting the chip on the shoulder guy and other people are making the decision for you and you might end up with the best guy anyway. And this has to be one of the only drafts I can remember like that. I wouldn't even have felt that way with the Paolo-Chet-Jabari draft. This one, it's like, fuck. You might be all right at four. Washington taking Boozer at one would be the funniest outcome for a variety of reasons. Not to mention the bans that go into Utah too immediately.

1:23:24Bill Simmons:And then nobody knowing what's going to happen after that. Your predictions, one through four right now, two weeks away. What do you have? What will happen? What will happen? Not my opinion. Your prediction of the top four. I think AJ will go first. I think the Jazz will take Peterson. I've heard they like Peterson. I've heard Danny likes Peterson. I mean, we'll see how credible it is. I don't believe that because Danny doesn't reveal anything. Okay. And then let's see. So Peterson, Utah, and then you would have Boozer third to Memphis. Yes. He makes so much sense with the Grizzlies too. I mean, that's an unbelievable outcome for Memphis.

1:24:04Coward, loser, Edie, Cam Spencer, like that. It's hilarious that I'm saying Cam Spencer fourth, but no, I mean, they got an interesting group of guys. Like, I think that'd be fun. And then, Caleb with the Bulls is, that's a blast. I like it.

1:24:20Bill Simmons:Caleb with the Bulls is really fun. Right? Him, Bozellis, and Giddy just kind of going up and down. Unfortunately, all the guards that they let go in February would not be there. what about our guy Yaxel at 11 with Golden State he might not make it to 11 I've heard I mean I've heard talk of him as high as like 7 so I mean that could I've checked Sam's latest one I didn't know where he had him but people like he would fit they have a lot of 4's I mean that's the thing with Golden State he could shoot the ball he would fit the way that they like to play I could see that happening Is that your prediction?

1:25:01Bill Simmons:No, I was thinking Mara would be a great one for them if they ended up with 11, right? Because the passing to me makes me think that the passing and the pedigree of being in big games makes me wonder if that's a fit with them. Yeah, and you have to think about who you're going against because they do think they have a chance to get LeBron in July, which I think they will. That's still my prediction. I've stood by it for two months. Then you have to think like, well, what do we need Yaxo for if we're going to have LeBron playing like that same kind of 3-4 type of minutes? Right. So, anybody dropping for you?

1:25:41Bill Simmons:Flemings? Is there a chance he drops out of the top 10 or is he right where he was before? He's climbing for me, actually. I liked a lot of the stuff with him. And at the end of the day, you bet on people, that's kind of, that gets lost in this. You know, these guys are as much as people love to throw the analytics out there and, you know, live life in a spreadsheet when it comes to the draft. You listen to Kingston Fleming's talk. I've just been blown away impressed with how sophisticated he is. I'll say who he reminds me of a little bit. It's not one-to-one, but he gives me some real Halliburton vibes when I listen to that kid talk.

1:26:21And you look at the way he gets on and off the ball, the speed. They're like, we're not quite sure how he scores at the next level stuff that was talked about. He's not the same level of passer. The odd shot. There are a lot of parallels between those two guys. And he just seems like he'd just be a quality add. He's really strong. He might get picked on, but I like Kingston Flemings. He's climbing for me.

1:26:43Bill Simmons:People like Johnson, too, is the other one that everybody likes in the interviews and the workouts. It seems like he's climbed into the mid-teens. And then Lopez has dropped. Lopez was being thrown around in like that 7-11 range for a brief second. And now it seems like he's out of the lottery. Well, we'll see what happens. Maybe next week, come back on. We could discuss again. Okay. We'll see if anything changes. This is right around. I feel like there's going to be a big trade too soon because like Giannis, I just, I don't think that gets super close to the draft. My guess is if there's a big trade, it would probably be after game four, before game five.

1:27:25Bill Simmons:I think the league likes to clear out the first four games of the finals, and it's kind of a wink-wink with the teams. But I feel like if there's going to be a big trade, I could see it be closer to the end of this week. And then, you know, Milwaukee having a chance to get potentially 10 and 13, not to mention some of those other Miami guys. Like, that's not bad in this draft. They might, you know, they had two swings at it here. The other one that I forgot was that Charlotte has 14 and 18. That's a big deal. Right? Especially with the guys who might be there. Yeah. So you could either say, fuck it, we'll just stay here and we'll get two swings of this or try to move up if you're super excited about somebody.

1:28:01Bill Simmons:All right, Kyle, man. We'll see how this goes. You've been enjoying the playoffs? Oh, my God. We're recording this before game three. A minus, B plus, what's your grade for the playoffs? I would say my excitement level specifically for these last three series has been up there with some of my highest excitement. This finals in particular, I'm just like moonwalking around during the day. Just can't wait. Just because I'm not a fan of either team, so I have nothing to lose and I just get to enjoy it. So, yeah, it's been great. I think for me, though, it's been really fun to watch the Knicks and San Antonio just as basketball teams.

1:28:44Bill Simmons:for different reasons. The Knicks, because they've played so beautifully together. And San Antonio, I just like the guys on their team. I really enjoy the experience of watching them, which I haven't always said with the contenders. You know? I thought of something on a walk today that I wanted to run by you because I think you mentioned it in the mailbag. It's really strange that like the top six guys, I went back and was looking at the teams. We have young cores where guys are like really clustered together in terms of age. You, the historian, How common is it to have a core that is all hitting their prime at the same time?

1:29:18They're like the next guy.

1:29:20Bill Simmons:Yeah. There are top six guys. I looked at it are like they're all born within a year and four months of each other or two years and four months of each other. For the next. Yeah. Yeah. They're all hitting their prime. That's really is that I don't feel like that happens a lot. It's pretty unusual. I don't remember what the ages were with the Knicks in the late 60s, early 70s, but I feel like they were all around the same because their careers. seem to end all around the same times but usually you end up with like a situation like dallas where you have you know you have vets you have like the older jason kidd type but then you have like chandler around the same time and yeah but there's a little bit more of a mix the weird thing with with uh san antonio the cluster of the younger guys like even somebody like carter bryant being 19 being like the ninth man on the team you know they don't have like that 34 year old old guy bringing him out to old gunslinger or like even like the Steve Kerr on 2003.

1:30:18Bill Simmons:They don't have any of those guys. Fox seems like the vet and Fox is 2018 draft, you know? So yeah, it is pretty unusual. But part of it is because they didn't make the trade in February that I think they maybe would have made if they felt like this was going to happen. Like I, I do feel like they probably would have gotten some sort of physical stretch for some, just some sort of flexibility at that spot that they just, you know, I think they thought they were a year away. Yeah. All right, Kyle, man. We'll see you before the draft. Thanks for coming on. My pleasure. All right, that's it for the podcast.

1:30:52Bill Simmons:Thanks to Rob Mahoney. Thanks to Kyle Mann. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. And I'm going to be back with you live after Wednesday's Game 4 with a very special guest. See you then. Must be 21-plus in President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York for Louisiana.

1:31:38Bill Simmons:and call 877-770-7867.

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