A Hawks Power Play, Plus a Round 1 Playoff Mega-Preview With Joe House and Billy Gil

26:44Once every five years we get one of these matchups that Billy's describing. So the last one was Cincinnati against the Rams. Now the Rams had been to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff against the Patriots. The Patriots strangled the life out of him. But we had a really exciting Matthew Stafford Joe Burrow Super Bowl that really came out of left field. I kind of feel like that's the situation that we're in this season. I couldn't agree more. I've been comparing it for the last few weeks to the 2008 season, which was the year that Brady blew out his ACL eight minutes into the season and then just kind of all hell broke loose.

27:23And we ended up with Carson Palmer and Arizona in the Super Bowl against a pretty strange Pittsburgh team. And that was just kind of the Super Bowl. And it turned out to be a really good game. But I don't feel like anybody was watching it going, these are two peak football teams. It was just kind of where we landed. I think Cincinnati and the Rams is a good one, even though the Rams are good that year. But the Bengals making it is the kind of thing that I think's in play this year. So we all agree on that, that this is going to just be a weird playoffs. I think so. It feels like it. Looking back to the 2020 Super Bowl between the 49ers and the Chiefs, like obviously that was the start of the Chiefs dynasty and the run that they went on, right?

28:02But at the time, did it feel like that to you? Like if you could forget about everything that happened after the fact, like, oh, the Kansas City Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl? Like Andy Reid's, I guess, back. Let's see if he does it. That seemed like a random one at the time. Then you had like Raheem Mostert running loose. I think he had like 200 something yards the week before to get him to the Super Bowl. It seemed like those were two random teams that ended up being kind of like powerhouses as the years went on. Well, what was the year? It was Vrabel when they made it to the, it was Tennessee, Cincinnati, right?

28:32Wasn't that one of the years when the year Cincinnati made it? I guess they beat KC. They beat Tennessee. You're right about that. Tennessee, but it was, I think we got killed in that game house. Ryan Tanner killed us. I don't, I don't forget when I still feel like the bruises from that one. Yeah. There's still a chalk outline. One of those Tennessee years when it just felt like Tennessee had a chance to make the Super Bowl. We have that sometimes I'm ready for that this year. If I had to pick, so Fandu did a bet for me that, uh, people can do that Jacksonville or new England will make the Super Bowl.

29:04I think the Pats house disagrees. I think the Pats and Jacksonville win this week and we go to round two and that's kind of the side because I do not believe in Denver. I don't know. Billy, how do you feel about Denver? I saw that at FanDuel right now, you get plus 800 for the Broncos and the Seahawks to both make it both number one seeds. Two one seeds. Yeah, which seems like two one seeds, you should do that. But I don't know if anyone actually believes in Denver. I know that they had a great season. They're the one seed, obviously, but there's just something about them. Bo Nix, is he actually that good?

29:39Sean Payton, I mean, I don't trust them. I really don't. I feel like this could be a division round exit for them, depending on the matchup. The problem with Denver is Jacksonville went in there and kicked their ass. Like if we didn't have in our sort of recent memory seeing Trevor Lawrence go into Denver and it mattered in meaningful December football, and they just whooped them. I mean, it was one of those games that Denver's defense just couldn't keep up. That's the problem. With that in our recent memory banks, you can't say, oh, well, this is all Denver. This is an all Denver path here. Yeah, Housemates, I thought the same thing about there's certain games you can't get out of your, kind of the taste out of your mouth.

30:28We had Denver that game, of course, in Ringer 107, and Jacksonville kicked their ass for three hours. And it was impressive. And I actually don't think they've got enough credit for how good they've been the last couple months. They have talked about this every week. I think it's been a big rallying cry for them, which is another thing. We're going to go in the playoff manifesto in a second. They're a pretty complete team. And the catch is Trevor Lawrence turns into a pumpkin in the playoffs and you're like, I knew it. I knew that was going to happen. But it just might not happen. We're going to go through the playoff gambling manifesto, which I've been working on every year since I had my old website pre-ESPN.

31:03And I sent this to you guys. I'm going to read through it quickly. It's been pretty reliable over the years. We've added a couple of things over the years. There's some stuff that doesn't qualify for this year, like beware of the looked a little too good, the previous round team. That's rule number one. We won't know about that till round two. Don't bet against God, puppies, and gambling theories from Pakistan. That's really Tim Tebow, Kurt Warner related. When religion comes in in a strong way, just, you know, just put the flashers on. Rule number three has been incredibly reliable this entire century.

31:38Beware of the nobody believes in us team. But then we also had to add the don't talk, don't try too hard to talk yourself into the nobody believes in us team either. So I want to stop here. I think the Duke probably has the best feel for this. I like calling you the Duke, even though I don't even think you really like it. Okay. The nobody believes in us. Jacksonville has tried to embrace it. San Francisco, Carolina's out. I mean, Carolina's a plus 10 and a half underdog at home and around, but they don't even count. Is San Francisco feel nobody believes in us to you at all? I was trying to figure that out.

32:14The three teams that I wrote down coming into this week into nobody believes in us, Jaguars that you mentioned, the Panthers that you kicked out. And I'm wondering if the Bears are one of those teams that's a nobody believes in us team. because the fact that they're an underdog at home seems surprising to me. Can I offer one more? Because part of the nobody believes in us is you have to play out the entire upset in your head followed by the post-game interview after. And I found myself moving to Monday night, Houston, Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh not only covering the plus three, but winning outright.

32:52And then Rodgers talking after and doing the dismissive Rogers thing and going, look, nobody's believed in us all year. That hasn't changed. And doing that, I'd be like, oh, this is how the Steelers feel. But I don't, it's almost like baked into the Steelers. So how, does it even count with them? No, it's part of their identity. Nobody believes in them, including their own fan base. I mean, they were literally chanting Fire Tomlin less than a month ago. Yeah. In Akershire, isn't that the name of the stadium? him fire Tomlin yeah that was a slap in the face and and and yet here we are so right it's part of the DNA it's part of their voodoo um I don't think that they qualify so Jacksonville is the team because I think the case for that on top of that they've been playing the card for eight weeks is they are not favored at home as a three seed against the team they have a better record than than they've been out playing for the last three months and Buffalo's favored because of Josh Allen really only.

33:49There's no other reason. So I think that's the answer, Billy. I think it's Jacksonville. Okay. Rule number four, be careful of the everybody believes in us team and the nobody believes in our QB, but us motherfuckers team. There's a certain level of nobody believes in us where they get very, very possessive and protective of their own quarterback. You saw this happen with the Rams or Jared Goff a little bit, but there's certain, I don't think that qualifies, but the Everybody believes in us team. Who is that, Billy? Who has too many people on the band? He's right. He's right. It's the Rams. Duke is on it.

34:24It's the Rams. Anybody else? Is there an AFC? Not really. I don't think anyone believes in any AFC team. People are high on the Seahawks, too. I mean, they're the one seed, so it's easy to be high on the Seahawks. We haven't seen Sam Darnold unravel yet, which he did at the end of last year. Some. And it hasn't happened this year. so it makes you wonder, is it going to happen at some point? I mean, he has the bye week, so it can't happen this week, but it seems like it's the Rams right now. I think that's fair. They're a five seed. They blew their chance to win the division. They've looked a little gamey in a couple of these outdoor games.

35:02We'll come back to them later. Rule number five, beware of any team that could use a notable off-field distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force. Not in play yet. Rule number six is a really important one. never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win this doesn't always hit there's been times underdogs cover but don't win but for the most part it's the playoffs you're just better off thinking in your head can they actually win and this is a key one for Niners Eagles don't take the Niners plus four and a half and be like I think it's going to be close could be a three point like if you do you think the Niners are going to win or not and if you don't think they're going to win don't take them with the four and a half uh the next two are weather related and they're also very important.

35:44And this one, especially I added this year, beware of all dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather or cold weather teams playing outdoors in humid weather, which is really Florida and Carolina. So we have that in play this weekend. We have a Florida home game and we have a Carolina home game. And it seems like Jacksonville is going to be high sixties. You have this Buffalo team that's cold all the time, getting a little Amy during the afternoon. I'm just monitoring that one. You like that one at all house? Cause we've seen the Pats go to Miami when it's 80. I know Billy enjoys when this happens.

36:16Um, and they just run out of gas two hours into the game. Well, I'm not going to blame the weather, but we just watched the bills go down to Miami. Uh, now it was, what was it? Right after the chiefs game. So they were running on empty, but you know, they, they, they got a boat race. I mean, that was, that wasn't, that was 30 to nothing. Wasn't it? Right. That could be the Rams in Carolina too. It's another, there's a bunch of like interesting reasons to zag against the Rams. Number nine, discount first five, six weeks in the season. I think everybody knows how to do that. Doesn't, what you did in September doesn't matter.

36:52Rule number 10. Oh, I'm sorry. Rule number eight was to beware of any aging QB in cold weather unless it's Tom Brady. So this kind of fits Rogers, but is Rogers an outlier for this rule because of how many games he's played in cold weather? What's your ruling, Billy? I had Rogers as my guy for this one too. I looked up the weather there. It's supposed to be 32 degrees. It feels like 24, not snow, 22 % chance of precipitation, 50 mile per hour winds. But he spent his whole career in Green Bay in those games. So it's not like an Eskimo. Like he's not used to this yet. 32 in Pittsburgh is balmy compared to Lambeau.

37:29Yeah, I don't think, I think that bounces off him. Plus he grew up in Northern California. Weather's weird. So I almost feel like I should add Rogers to this. rule number 10 is crucial when in doubt gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and definitely be the opposite side of the single worst gambler you know what is the most obvious game this week the Rams and the Panthers Rams money line Rams minus 10 Rams money line so the most obvious pick I think this week is people doing Moneyline teases with the Rams as the first leg. Right? Either a 10-point tease, throwing the minus 650 in the rest of their bets.

38:13I think that's the most obvious thing to do this week, and it makes me nervous. Just out of the gate. Along with a lot of other things about that game. Is there another one that you think is too obvious? Eagles against the banged-up Niners? Has that line moved a point? It's the second highest line, because it's a really weird set of lines. You have anything, Billy? Anything that's too obvious? No, I had the same one. I had for that one, the Panthers. I feel like everyone's staying away from the Panthers. And we saw them beat the Rams a couple weeks ago. But it was like everything had to go right for the Panthers in that game.

38:44And everything kind of went wrong for the Rams in that game. And they still only won by a field goal and still almost tied the game with a field goal at the end. But then Stafford kind of fumbled the ball with two minutes left. Yeah, I went back and I looked through that game. There was a pick six from Stafford. the Panthers had two long pass touchdowns on fourth down and then Bryce Young was great Bryce Young was three touchdowns no picks, it was arguably the best game he's ever played and as you said the Rams had the ball at the end and they kind of fucked it up but I'm not sure the Panthers could do that well ever again, they were missing guys on their side, I don't think they had JC Horn for that game I think they're healthier than they were but you know Do I think they can score 31 points against the Rams again?

39:33I don't. That game fell apart quickly, though, and the Rams were still in it the entire way. So they were going back and forth. Rams score, Panthers score. Rams drive down the field, interception in the end zone. Then Panthers punt it, Rams throw a pick six, and then they're still in the entire game, even with all of that going right there in it. And then it took rain at the end of the game. And by the way, Puka didn't have a good game. He had his miraculous catches here and there, but he didn't have a touchdown. he had less than 100 yards in that game. They would need to replicate that exact formula to win again against the Rams.

40:06I don't see it happening. Yeah, that... None of us do. So we only have to pick five ringer 107 games. That could be the one we punt. It's one of these games we just kick to the side. That's a leading contender. Rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself into terrible QB ever for any reason. This rule really came into effect the one year. Who was the guy in Dallas in the early 2000s who had to start? Quincy Carter, a name like that. He was really awful. And the line never adjusted for how bad he was. And it was just stuck with me ever since. But bad QBs in general, you just don't want them in the playoffs.

40:45Miami's had a couple over the years where we've had some playoff games. Not to bring up terrible memories. Skylar Thompson almost beat the Bills. Skylar Thompson worked out the best. Rule number 12 doesn't count yet, but aware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's playoff victory to win the Super Bowl. Rule number 13 is a recent add. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence if the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So this is where we move into the DVOA EPA land. And honestly, it's stuff like Buffalo having the 31st ranked run defense in the EPA is significant. When you think of the Jaguars have had some games where they've run on people's asses like they did to the Chargers.

41:29It's just, when you see, Chicago's another one that has some pretty convincing nerd stuff going against them. Yeah, you take the turnovers away from their defense and it's one of the two worst defenses in the NFL. Yeah, they're 25th in DVOA anyway. EPA, they were 17th against the pass and 24th against the run. Would they have 22? They're plus 22 with turnovers this year. Yeah. Can't ignore any of that stuff. Rule number 14 is another. This one I added this year. Our old friend Mike Lombardi, who stopped podcasting and become the UNC general manager, he had a law that I always thought was great about bad offensive lines don't travel.

42:19And the rule is bad offensive line, you can get away with it at home, but if you're on the road, the crowd's loud, your offensive line sucks to begin with, Just be careful. And there's a couple lines like that this week, including the Chargers, fortunately for me. But I actually texted Lombardi and asked him if the Texans qualify. And he said, yes. Shaky offensive line for them too. Rule number 15, look at the coaches. Just take a long look. We don't have any, do we have a stinker coach this year, Billy? Do we have a playoff coach that you're just like, I don't trust that dude at all? I mean. We don't have a Norv Turner this year.

42:56No, we have some rookie coaches, right, that we have to kind of see. Is Liam Cohen going to do well? Yeah. How's McDonald's going to do in the playoffs? So you have unproven coaches, I would say, but no outright stinkers that kind of snuck their way in there with a good team, I don't think. House, any coach you just dislike? Many people are still skeptical about Sirianni. His record is outstanding, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. but there's still that lingering sort of fear, skepticism that this Eagles team resembles the one from a handful of years ago. The one a couple of years ago completely fell off the rails and everybody saw the first round where they were favorites going into Tampa and Tampa beat their butts, knocked them out of the playoffs.

43:45This is a different version altogether because this Eagles team defensively is, I mean, you know, a million miles superior to that one. But Shanahan, Sirianni, I don't know. Did you have one, Billy? No. Can I ask a question about this rule? So there's a lot of hypothetical in this rule also that involves traveling and a passport. And I was wondering the specifics of that. Should I read that? Yeah. So the whole rule is rule number 15. Take a long look at the head coaches. Consider their playoff history. Compare them in your heads to some of the all-time January stink bombers like Marty Schottenheimer, Jim Mora, Herm Edwards, Norv Turner, or the clapper, Jason Garrett.

44:26Then pretend you're flying abroad with one of these coaches and they're holding your wallet and passport the entire time. How would you feel? There's no coach in here that would make me nervous like that. By the way, just as an aside, may the clapper please come back. I saw he's interviewing for multiple jobs. I've never been more excited for non-Boston news ever. Kyle, I know you were delighted. It's unbelievable. When Cousin Sal broke it out, we did our hump day headlines on the Wednesday Ringer Gambling Show, and he said with a straight face, Jason Garrett is interviewing for the Tennessee job.

45:03I thought it was a comedy bit. Right. You were waiting for him to finish the punch. What has anybody been watching on television that would instill confidence in gender confidence? He was a horrendous coach in Dallas, undermined great teams at every turn, and then has been extraordinarily mediocre. The guy that said that he has, what is it? The hand bone, the mad game of frozen hand bone for the free. Get the fuck out of here. This guy? Are you fucking kidding me? please dear god if there's a god the football gods have been so good to us please in 2026 give that man a head coaching job we billy we didn't have enough comedy on the coaching sidelines this year everyone's hiring these young whippersnappers who actually know what they're doing mike mcdaniel did his best yeah he really tried to be hilarious every week pretty good yeah god god bless uh dj mikey mack we're gonna miss him not spinning his tracks anymore for the dolphins uh but yeah i I thought we were late this year, right?

46:04Yeah, this honestly was like, was this the best coaching cycle hires ever? None of them flopped. Like they all worked out. And this coming year, I mean, I guess you now have John out there, right? John Harbaugh is going to get a job right away. McDaniel, everyone's kind of thinking about where is he going to be an OC? I don't know if Joe House wants him up there and watch him. That seems to be like a favorite. Yeah, they signed up already. Big fan. That's his job. That's his best, you know, highest use. Let him be an OC for Dan Quinn. I saw that Vance Joseph is getting some run now. And I remember him being terrible.

46:38And I went back and looked at his two teams. And he lasted two years at Denver. In the second year, Case Keenum was his quarterback. So I'm like, you know what? Who knows? Like, I think if we've learned anything, it's if you have a shit quarterback or a mediocre quarterback or whoever, like you just have no chance, right? There's other times where it's like Antonio Pierce, there's more stuff going on than your quarterback wasn't good or Hugh Jackson. But with Vance Joseph, he's a very well-respected DC. So maybe there were, there's some other coordinators they're throwing out. I don't think we can.

47:13Brian Flores. People seem to keep trying him out and it never really takes. But Harbaugh, that was, had to be one of the reasons he must be happy that. Which job would you take out of those two, Giants or Falcons? Because to me, I would take the Falcons a hundred times out of a hundred. would you take the Ravens I feel like the Ravens might be the best job that's out there right now well not for Harbaugh no not for Harbaugh no no not Harbaugh yeah no if you're Harbaugh I I honestly was wondering if this is a thing where you know they didn't announce Mike McDaniels firing right away Stephen Ross always wanted Jim Harbaugh I was wondering if this is a situation because there was the rumor out there where it's like seven teams have already contacted John Harbaugh but there's only six openings that would apply to him.

47:56So someone is out there talking to John. And then all of a sudden, after that was out there, McDaniel's fired a day later. I wonder if there's like some insider trading going on there with Steven Ross where he's already decided, you know what, I couldn't get the Harbaugh I wanted. I'll set it for the other Harbaugh instead. So House, you could be New York Giants, Jackson Dart, neighbors coming back, top five pick, good defense, fourth place schedule, famous franchise. Let's pick one. Atlanta, loaded on talent. We're probably a 13-win team that went eight and nine. They don't have their first-round pick.

48:31Easier schedule. And you could go right in and make an impact. Or Miami, you could just live in Miami. What would you do?

48:44What Harbaugh would do and I would do are two radically different things. Because I would say to Steven Ross, I just want$20 million a year over the next five years. If you give me$100 million, I'll come coach this team. The problem is... I don't even care who's on it. Yeah, don't care. Who's the quarterback of Miami next year? When you were... Is he going to be the starting quarterback, the Miami Dolphins? He looked good for about an hour against the Pats, and then he just threw it right to us in the end zone. And that was that. Oh, right. The Duke, you're a Dolphins fan. Yeah, it's been bad.

49:15Who do you want? I mean, they have to get rid of Tua, right? It's obvious that they're going to move on from Tua at this point in time, but it seems like that's going to be a thing just because of like financial reasons. I'll wait till after the June 1st deadline. Cause then they can kind of move the money around, but they're not, they don't have a high enough traffic to get a quarterback in the draft. You have to kind of hope that they trade for a quarterback. Like there's not a, there's not a quarterback out there. What you're going to hope that Justin Fields is released. And then you try with him for a year and that he's bad enough.

49:46Harley is not doing that. Somebody might do that. John Harbaugh is not doing that. Well, I mean, the Dolphins thing is going to be fire McDaniel. He then goes, becomes an OC for a team. Like he, I see a scenario where he can then go, if he doesn't go to Washington, he can have a reunion in San Francisco, depending on how the playoffs go there. Or he can then maybe go up to Baltimore where he has Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry, and then he becomes the OC there. And then all of a sudden he's an offensive genius. Again, you fired this offensive genius that you had because he didn't have the quarterback that he needed.

50:17He did the best anyone could probably do with Tua, right? but the thing that the dolphins would do is fire the offensive genius without a replacement plan hoping that you get john harbaugh who then goes to the giants to coach jackson dart right and then how many times have somebody backed out in the dolphins at the last minute that's happened at least four times i mean you had brady basically too that was the other one the secret brady deal was one of the great 2020 stories i'm so like that that brady situation is so wild and with like all the tampering and cheating that goes on in the nfl and i and like you read the reports of how kind of brian flores he ended up suing the dolphins and that was the whole thing and suing the league right but then there were reports like he kind of lost the team ryan fitzpatrick came out uh like i think earlier this week and he was talking about how he changed like from when he started towards the end he became kind of like a dictator and was trying to embrace like the belichick patriots way without actually having any of the success to do so right but this is just one of those things where that he decided that that was the moment with Tom Brady, that he was not going to step foot on a yacht to cheat and bring Tom Brady to the dolphins.

51:26And I don't understand why that is the point of integrity that you need to kind of like take a stand on. It's crazy to me. Also, he was kind of cheating the whole time and then didn't complete the cheat. Yeah. Just if you're going to cheat, go all cheat. Like there's, there's no honor in half-ass cheating that then gets you fired. You paid for the OnlyFans model to come over. No, I didn't. Sorry, House. That hit too close to home. How dare you? I did not. I think the funniest outcome would be Harbaugh actually coming to the Dolphins and bringing Stu Puntley with them. Any given Sunday style. Like Pacino.

52:06I'm going to a new expansion team and I'm bringing Willie Beeman as my first signing. and the credits. It'd be amazing. A nice reunion for Snoop Huntley, who was there last year when Tua was out and tanked the Dolphins season. He can live in his same Airbnb. Crazy that eight of the 32, that seems like a pretty high number for NFL coaching people. Some of them are surprised. We said on Sunday night, we said going to Sunday that Pittsburgh-Baltimore was a loser-leaves-town match. I just really felt like whoever lost that game was done. Quickly, four more rules, Beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants.

52:45Maybe the Chargers. I don't think their defense is good enough is the problem, but it's that kind of blueprint 17-14 type games. But I don't think we have that team this year. Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Really crucial for the Eagles. The Eagles at home, their fans can just get really bummed out and kind of surly if it's a certain type of game. where I almost wonder... You mean a zero pass completion in the second half? Yeah, we've watched it. You know what I'm talking about. Yeah. There's a vibe that can unfold in those games. And I got to be honest, I'm a little worried about the Sunday Night Pats game.

53:25Why? Just cold, night, late. Just, I don't know. Your Mass Hall brothers will have been drinking all day. that's part of what I'm worried about might be might be peaking around 3 in the afternoon, I don't know those night games always worry me 18, look at the quarterbacks again and rule number 19 don't try to be a hero, just try to win money so there's some good ones to apply to the 6 games, we'll take a break, we're going to come back and we're going to hit all the games alright, we talked about it in the manifesto Rams minus 10.5 Panthers Panthers give us your wacky angle for this game first, Billy.

54:11I have two angles for this one. If you'd like two, I could just give you one. No, you can double up. Okay. We got all the time in the world. All right. First angle. Is this Bryce Young's Powerball game slash playoffs? Is this the game where they were out on him two years ago? They drafted him. Didn't work out. Last year, they benched him. It took a car accident for Andy Dalton to then get removed. You bring Bryce back. He then plays this season. He does well. It seems like he's not what they thought he was going to be as a number one pick, but he's now gotten them to the playoffs. It's hard to find a franchise quarterback in the playoffs.

54:49If he somehow pulls off a miraculous win, does he do enough with the Panthers who are notorious for mismanaging everything in their organization? They still don't need to do this. They still have a fifth year option that they could give from 26.5 million. And he still has a year on his rookie deal. But if he does and they can tag him after that. Yeah. But if he does it, is this something that gets the emotions to a place where they give him the Daniel Jones four years for one hundred sixty million dollars? Is that what we're calling it now? The Daniel Jones? It's a powerball. It's one game and you win life changing money because, you know, you just have the one game.

55:28You also have like Joe Flacco. You can go back to 2012 when he had the playoff run where he was done with his rookie deal. He wins the Super Bowl. He gets the long-term deal. And at the time, it was like$120 million, but it was like one of the highest average annuals. I mean, it really should be called the Flacco. Yeah, well, I mean, it's the Jones. When it's Bryce Young, you sign him to the deal, and then it completely falls apart. Like, we're not looking for something like, this is a statement game. He's arrived, now he's here. This is a, he has one game. They make a bad deal, give him all this life-changing money.

55:58And then it's like, oh no, now our hands are tied. Now we need to figure out how to get out from under this contract because we're just kind of stuck in the middle for the rest of time. Can I add an addendum to this? Okay. If Chicago, Philly, and Carolina all somehow win, which the first two teams are home. This isn't unrealistic. We would get the Bryce Young trade referendum Super Bowl in round two, Chicago versus Carolina. Hmm. If you remember, controversial trade once upon a time. and now if Bryce Young gets killed in Chicago, doesn't that solve your issue? He wins the playoff game, but then gets killed by the team that they made this crazy trade for Bryce Young and then he does get the contract.

56:42If he beats the Rams and Chicago, now we're in a Trey Young 2018 situation where now you're a franchise guy. Mm-hmm. Until you're not. What's your other angle? My other angle. Does Matthew Stafford know the MVP race is over or is he going to try to be doing too much? So there's the whole Matthew Stafford. You think he thinks it goes through the playoffs? I think that he thinks that there's too much going on here. I was going and I was looking on like message boards of Ram fans seeing what they're talking about, seeing if they're excited. And it's just conspiracy theories over why Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league.

57:20Like they are so upset that Drake May could win the MVP that they're just looking into different things. It's an obsession that they have. So here are some of the things that they've come up with. They were trying to make the argument that a one-yard touchdown pass, which you have said and others have said, he would have just kind of pad his stats and then he'd go in there and he'd lead the league in touchdowns. The argument by Rams fans that was being made was that the one-yard touchdown pass is actually the hardest of the touchdown passes to come by because all you have is 11 yards of field to work with, where at any other point in time, you have a wide open field.

57:55so it would be easier to get any other touchdown than in a crowded 11 yards. Do you buy into that theory? No, especially not when I have Devontae Adams who like his last remaining like super elite skill is to catch his short telephone booth passes. All right, do you want to hear another theory that they have going on? I'd love to hear all the theories. By the way, the Rams fans were the ones who were planning the parties in New Orleans in 2001. See, now I'm going to root against the Rams. I don't like this Rams-rated thing at all. I think you wanted to root against the Rams this whole time. Yeah, I think I did.

58:27I was looking for an excuse. All right. So here's another theory that they have out there. They believe that Drake may intentionally pass his stats in passer rating by taking sacks because that doesn't count against you in passer rating to prevent Matthew Stafford from winning a quarterback triple crown of touchdowns, yards, and quarterback rating. And their argument was that Drake May was sacked 24 more times than Matthew Stafford, but only had 50 more sack yards. So therefore, these were all like close sacks where he could have easily just thrown the ball away, but was opting not to do so so that he would have a higher passer.

59:04Oh, that's amazing. So as somebody who watched every snap this season, first of all, he's running for his life 12 % of the time because they're offensive line, especially when they have left tackle. But he was really good at almost getting out of the sack and then getting chased down. So it was a lot of ones where he should have been sacked further back in the line of scrimmage, but was able to kind of fight for survival for five yards. So that doesn't add up to what we watched this season. Listen, don't shoot the messenger. So that's all leading to, with those theories out there, is Matthew Stafford going to think that he's still trying to prove to people that he's the MVP?

59:38And if you remember, we talked about it earlier, last game against the Panthers, he had two interceptions. One of them was in the end zone, then another quick one in the next drive. Then he had a fumble too. Then he had the fumble at the end of the game that ruined the game. I started looking at FanDuel. Duel. Matthew Stafford, plus 130 for an interception. Might be something. If he's trying to force things, the weather's also not supposed to be great there. I looked into, because of the manifesto, I started looking into the weather in Carolina. AccuWeather says that a Bank of America stadium, 70s degree, real fuel, 66 % cloudy chance, thunderstorms.

1:00:12It's going to rain, probably. Second half of that game, like it did the last time when he had that fumble. Is it Rico Dowdle time? Could he be doing the Marshawn Lynch beast mode versus the 2010 Saints? Amazing. Is that in play? You know what? I want to parlay. I want to parlay that pick that Billy is describing. I'll see if Fandle lets me do it. No, they don't let you parlay the picks. Oh, that's right. You can't parlay interceptions with anything. No, because I wanted to do the Bryce Young. I actually looked at the Bryce Young pick parlayed with the Matthew Stafford pick. I thought this was a perfect everybody throws a pick in this game game and you can't do it.

1:00:47Really? because I was going to do it with Karen Williams over 64 and a half rushing yards because I think that McVay is going to try and protect Matthew Stafford from himself. And I think if the Rams get up by really, you know, any 10 points, then we're going to see a ton of Blake Corham and Karen Williams touches in the second half. They're just going to try and run the game out. I had another MVP wrinkle off Billy's MVP wrinkle. It is in play for Drake May and Matthew Stafford. the winning the MVP, but having a terrible round run playoff game and losing. And then they announced the MVP after AK and the Dirk Nowitzki.

1:01:24You remember when that happened with our guy, Dirk, we love Dirk Nowitzki. Nothing was more awkward than the, we believe warriors knocking Dirk out. And then Dirk were like, here's your MVP. Thanks. Also David Tepper. What's he going to be capable of in the luxury box? I think is an angle. Is it an angle? the much maligned over the years David Tepper what a crazy franchise I don't want to make any choice he has too much money I can't afford a defamation lawsuit so if the Rams win they go to Seattle for round two unless Green Bay or San Francisco win if you look at the nerd stuff it's a massacre the Rams had the ninth highest DBOA ever Carolina was 25th offense DBOA and 22nd defense EPA was just as bad there's one thing that I thought was pretty interesting beyond what we mentioned.

1:02:14I looked at, I really dove into, I spent a lot of time in the picks this week, guys. I really, like after the 40 and 50, it was like a wake-up call in a lot of ways. Aaron Schatz had a really interesting, worst DBOA to make the playoffs from 1978 to 2025. And what happened with some of those teams on the list? So the worst team ever to make the playoffs since 1978 DVOA was the 8-8 2004 Rams. What happened in round one? They won. They beat Seattle, who was four-point favorites. The second worst team ever was the 2010 Seahawks, who were 10-point underdogs against the Saints. They won. The next team was a strike season team.

1:03:00We're not counting them. 2016 Houston was the next full-season team. Four-point underdogs in Oakland. They win by 14. and the fourth team was the 1998 Cardinals, seven-point underdogs against Dallas. They win. And then the fifth team was the Tim Tebow Denver Broncos who won in overtime against Pittsburgh as seven-and-a-half-point underdogs. So there's other people on the list. The point is there is evidence that this kind of DVOA miracle would happen. The problem is this would be pretty unusual from a point spread standpoint. This would be the biggest home dog that's ever covered a playoff game, basically.

1:03:38House, I saw this that you might be interested in if you believe that Kyron Williams is going to kind of run all over them and it's a rainy day. So FanDuel has a game special. Kyron Williams and Rico Daddle each having 50-plus rushing yards in each half, plus 40 ,000. In each half. So both guys go over 100. I mean, plus 40 ,000. I can't even... So it's$10 and you win$400 ,000? a hundred dollars yeah a hundred dollars yeah i don't know i can't i can't figure that math a hundred with four thousand is that what it is yeah i guess yes now if you're worried about your three your ten point teaser with the rams the last 20 times we had um a straight up nine and a half or nine and a half point and up favorite 19 and one straight up against that the only time the team didn't win was the 2019 Ravens who lost to Mike Brable's Tennessee Titans 20 to 12 as 10 point favorites.

1:04:40It's the only time since the Seahawks Saints game. Um, and they weren't even home dogs. So 15 years, it's a long time. Yeah. And we talked about a lot. There's a lot of man of Festo for this one, including nobody believes in us. The underdog don't pick them unless you believe they can win. The cold weather, the warm weather team playing or cold weather team, no, dome team playing in humid weather or cold weather, either one. Aging QB in weird weather. Is this the pick that screws over the most gamblers? Do you really want to put money on Bryce Young? The nerd evidence and then the quarterbacks.

1:05:22House, where are you sitting in this game? I'm going to take 20 bucks. I'm going to bet it on the Carolina Panthers money line. And I'm going to kiss that 20 bucks goodbye. And that's it. That's the only bet I'm making on this stupid football game. You mentioned it, the DVOA unprecedented, the point they have the same differential as the New York Giants. But this team is 8-0 against the spread, the Carolina Panthers, after a loss. And all of their wins this season have come after a loss. Well, they lost last week. They've been a pretty good home team for the most part. Pretty good home team. Yeah.

1:06:03This is the biggest point spread in the history of the NFL as a home dog. I just don't have any appetite for messing with it. Like, what do you get out of this? It could go exactly the way a lot of us imagine, which is the Rams get in, they roll. But man, we watched the Rams these last three weeks. Have you really been blown away by anything you've seen out of the Warriors? I haven't. For three weeks. I think you can throw on them, too. You definitely can. Arizona certainly did. The Panthers got Coker back and T-Mac. I really don't think the Panthers are bad. The weather was really weird in that Tampa game.

1:06:43Weird stuff happened in general in that game, but I felt like they should have been moving the ball better in that game. The referees, they got boned over by every call. a couple props I was looking at Puka plus 370 to have the most receiving yards in round one Bryce was minus 118 for a pick and there's if you just think the Rams are going to roll you could do Puka 100 yards plus Adams TD Rams 29 plus points and Rams money is plus 427 house sure so you don't have to deal with the spread what do you like Billy what's your pick I feel like the Panthers might get a backdoor cover here, but I don't see them winning the game.

1:07:26They just, there was a chance, there was a time where Bryce Young, like 11 of his 14 wins or something like that, all came on game winning drive. So it was like, he's a clutch guy, but his team has to have him be in a position to be clutch. And I just don't see it happening because I don't think that this is going to be like the last time where everything breaks their way. He had those fourth down conversions that you said. He had the long touchdowns when he needed to have them. It's a team that you've been able to throw on. I'd say, I think since week 13, they're towards the bottom of the league in defense on passes, where earlier in the season, weeks one through 12, they were towards the top of the league.

1:08:02So you can throw on them, but I don't think that they're going to win the turnover battle plus three again like they did last time. So it's just, it's a nice story, but the Rams, I think, are just too much for the Panthers. I think this is the one I'm probably punting on for Ringer 107. But for posterity and the eternal quest to go undefeated against the spread in the playoffs, we kind of have to make a pick house. Well, here's the thing. And Billy just described it to us. The Rams are up. The back door's in play. 31-14. The Rams are up. They beat the crap out of Carolina all day long. They let Carolina score one touchdown in the first half and one touchdown with six minutes left in the fourth quarter.

1:08:45it's 31-14, Carolina gets the ball and you and I both know exactly what happens when the line is 10.5 points the line it feels like you're getting a flash sale on extra points for the Panthers 10.5 at home is insane I mean literally we'd be making history with this as a whole yeah I'm probably a slight lean for Panthers plus 10.5 but I think it's out of ringer 107 but just for posterity If this was nine and a half, it's weird. If it was nine and a half, I'd probably be like, fine, I'll take the Rams. But 10 and a half is like, you could be down 17 with two minutes left and cover. You know? And we know the Panthers can throw the ball when they're behind.

1:09:27We've watched them do it. So I don't mind the Panthers. I didn't think they were terrible. I felt worse about other playoff teams. All right. Now let's get to the big boys. Packers, Bears, Saturday night. But narratives include the Green Bay owns the Bears just perennially. Bears trying to shed that. There's some nobody believes in us with the Bears. There's some Micah Parsons Ewing theory going on with the Packers. There's some major luck shit going on with the Bears being the luckiest team in the league. The Packers had multiple games when they didn't punt but lost, which usually doesn't happen.

1:10:04What's your biggest angle for this one, Billy? I have two for this one also. Okay. All right. First storyline to watch, Matt LaFleur versus Ben Johnson. Have that written down as well. Maybe rivalry. Because at the moment, it's a very one-sided rivalry in favor of Ben Johnson, who seems to be trying to make this a rivalry, and Matt LaFleur, who is not paying attention to him whatsoever in terms of like, this is a rivalry. So it starts with Ben Johnson, introductory press conference. They ask him, one of the reasons you came here, whatever. and he throws out there, I like beating Matt LaFleur twice a year.

1:10:41So then Matt LaFleur goes on a podcast. He goes on Bustin' with the Boys and they ask him like, hey, what'd you make of those comments that Ben Johnson said? And he said, I don't really know Ben Johnson. So there's no beef whatsoever. So he kind of like insane. It's a diffusing. Diffusing, but also at the same time escalating. Like, I don't know who this person is, but I'm gonna take the higher ground here and pretend that I am not aware of Ben Johnson, which is crazy. basically like he's basically like i don't want to punch down yeah exactly in its own way is insulting he's getting a little brother so it's like a very exactly very backhanded like i'm not getting into this i'm matt lafleur so that's kind of the last we hear of it until they play each other where they have two very quick like frosty exchanges after each game was very brief there was nothing very welcoming there there was nothing that you felt like okay these are guys that like respect each other have respect for each other right and then that seemingly end of it unless you want to read between the lines and you want to read into comments that weren't directed directly at Matt LaFleur, which was Ben Johnson.

1:11:43So Ben Johnson, in the postgame press conference after week 18, he was asked, why did you have your starters out there? Because you look at teams like the Eagles who rested their starters. You look at the Packers who rested the starters. Now, the Packers had reason for resting their starters. They were pretty much locked in at seven. And also the Packers last year had injuries in week 18 against the Bears. So they said, you know what, we're not going to mess around with this again. We're just going to rest anyway. Exactly. Micah's out. Jordan gets now an extra week of rest headed into the playoffs.

1:12:12So like it benefits them to rest their players. However, Ben Johnson is, you know, one of the young and up and coming rough football guys from the world of Dan Campbell. And when they ask him, like, why'd you play your starters here? He said, we play football. Is that a backhanded comp? Is that a backhanded message over towards Matt LaFleur saying, you know what? You're not taking every advantage here playing football. You're not respecting the game. You're not playing the full 18 weeks of the season. You're backing out. That's not us. We play football come hell or high water. Yeah, that feels like a fuck you, Huss.

1:12:47I mean, on the one hand, I love it. It also will be hilarious if LeFleur, you know, if Green Bay wins and immediately, well, he wouldn't do it because that would be evidence of beefing down. But we, you know, if he slipped in there, we played football today that would really just be that would take the next level really smart for him to play it the way he played it because he got the extra week to just prepare for the bears right although the eagles almost screwed that up by that whole beer that whole thing he could have been preparing for the bears for a week and then also they're playing the eagles anyway um i didn't mind it though especially when you have a qb coming off a concussion they've had some offensive line injuries.

1:13:31Like, let's be ready for this one. What's the other angle you had, Billy? Well, on that one, real quick, another thing that you can watch for in the postgame press conference, we talked about it with Shield this week on the Ringer NFL show. So this game, because they split and now they're facing off in the playoffs, it has set up a situation where either coach in the postgame press conference can say, I like beating the other team twice a year. So they can bring it back. And now there's three games, so it's not undefeated. but either Ben Johnson or Matt LaFleur can come out and send a message to the other one saying, I like beating Ben Johnson twice a year.

1:14:03I like beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. So that's still in play. If you want to watch after the game, wait, hold on one thing on that. If Dobbs catches the onside kick, that means the Packers beat the bears twice this season. And then we move into the land of it's so hard to beat a team three times in one year. Did Dobbs intentionally miss the onside because they knew they'd be playing each other again? I don't know. Who knows? Did they tell him? It's much easier to go this route. It's also one of those things. It is easier, though, for them now. It makes more sense that they would win the playoff game.

1:14:35You also then, like, show them, like, you give them this false sense of confidence. Like, look, we beat them during the regular season. Maybe then you go to overtime, so you see them kind of whip out some tricks that maybe they weren't planning on showing you. So now you may have an advantage in maybe giving them that game, if you look back. Who knows? They stumbled into an advantage. was not their intention, but I think it's better that they lost that game. What's your next angle? All right, here's another angle. There's a battle presently going on, I don't know if you know this, of foam heads.

1:15:03So obviously everybody knows about the cheese heads that the Packers wear. I don't know if you caught on to this, but after the game-winning touchdown, DJ Moore wore a cheese grater head, and he was celebrating the game with a cheese grater head. And the Bears have since been wearing cheese grater heads. Now, we've done some research into this situation, Here's the deal. Okay, those cheese grater heads were made by a company called Foam Party Hats. And Foam Party Hats initially was making cheese heads until the Packers sent them a cease and desist and told them you need to stop making cheese heads in 2024-ish.

1:15:41So to respond to the cease and desist, they said, we are now gonna make cheese grater heads. And now that is why they've made these heads. And they didn't really catch on at first, but now since that game-winning touchdown, DJ Moore wearing it, Now these hats are becoming a thing that you'll see out there. And it's all because of a cease and desist that the Packers sent to a company that was at one time supporting them. And this is all leading to the Packers winning and somebody in the Packers taking the cheese grater head and doing this. I think that's what you just laid out is great for the Packers house.

1:16:14I couldn't agree more. I love that. That's like just chalkboard shit. Exactly. You're actually making cheese grater hats. Fuck you. Right. Who are you? You're the bears. What are you doing? There's another thing here, Billy, that you didn't mention. Okay. Bears kind of felt like a little cheap shot in that love hit that knocked love and that concussed them. And the multiple Packers have mentioned it. Yeah. That they didn't like the hit. So you got that one, too. There's some chalkboard material all over the place here. So you think maybe there's a little late, oh, we didn't hear the whistle on Caleb Williams possibly here?

1:16:49Very possible. from the nerd stats the most appalling thing Packers finished 19th defensively in DVOA and EPA 21 past 19 runs so their defense hasn't been great but they've also been banged up the Bears have been just bad on defense as we discussed Chicago's three wins they beat Green Bay and OT on the onside kick game they beat Pittsburgh by three and they beat Philly by nine those were their best three wins. And as many people have mentioned, they easily could have been seven and ten this year if you just switch the luck a little bit. There's only three manifesto games here, or rules here. The discount first five to six weeks of the season, which is when the Packers look pretty unstoppable.

1:17:37Don't dismiss the nerd evidence. So the Bears thing, it's an issue. The head coach's rule, number 15. We talked about, is there a coach that you're worried about? Why don't we have like a clapper this year? There's some Matt LaFleur stuff that's out there. There's some Matt LaFleur detractors. There's some Packer fans who are like, not sure about this guy. There's been some up and down stuff with him. There's some people are like, look at his record. He's been successful every year. He's made it work with every QB. And there's been some other people who are like, Like, what does he want? What about this game?

1:18:14What about that game? So it's just warrants mentioning. There's a blueprint here of Packers dominate the game. Bears get their two fucking lucky plays, however those happen. LeFleur screws up something. That's what worries me because, fellas, I love the Green Bay Packers in this game. And this is the first lock for me. Packers minus one and a half in Chicago. I just think they're better, and I think they're going to be able to throw all over the Bears. And I think you can. We saw San Francisco move the ball. Would they score five straight touchdowns in that Bears game? I just think they're going to be able to move the ball up and down the field on them.

1:18:49And I watched both of the games they played. I thought the Packers, I just think they're better. And if the Bears win this game, it will be a fucking voodoo game. So that's where I stand. Where do you stand, House? I don't like the strategy that they used last week of playing everybody and trying to win that Lions game. And putting the miles on themselves and losing anyway. They lost. That's the worst part. The worst part is they lost. That defense was on the field for 70 plays, over 70 plays. Like their bye week was week five. Like it's time to rest like this time of the season. So there is already a strategy advantage that I think that Green Bay has.

1:19:33And, you know, I think this factors into the little floor Johnson assessment. Like one guy has been here before. Now, he did have to learn the hard way, right? He played his guys in week 18 last season, and they came in. They still gave Philadelphia everything Philly wanted in Philadelphia in round one, even with the injuries that they suffered. But, you know, I think very quietly they're coming in here very prepared, not intimidated one bit, ready to kind of establish their version, their game script here at the very outset of this. The counter will be the Bears' ability to establish the run.

1:20:15The run has been their bread and butter. Can they run the ball down the Packers' throat? But on the flip side, Jacobs, you always talk about Jacobs when he's healthy. And it seems like they got Jacobs pretty healthy for January. And I think they can run the ball on the Bears. I just think they're going to be able to move the ball on the Bears. And I'm always going to take that. I actually like the Packers in a tease just as much to plus four and a half. But for the purpose of this, we'll go minus one and a half. Billy, what do you have in this game? I think I have the Packers winning this one also.

1:20:44I feel like you mentioned the fact that the Bears had their buy-in week five. The Packers also had their buy-in week five. And I think that you were talking about the coaching and LaFleur. LaFleur may have shown us kind of the advantage in coaching a longer period of time by saying, you know what? We haven't had, and it was not even in this game, it was last week. We haven't had rest since week five. We're already locked in. Let's get our guys healthy because there's nothing we can really do here but hurt ourselves. so let's go into this as healthy as possible as rested as possible where you know the Bears are going into it and they're just kind of wanting Ben Johnson wanting to prove himself in the league he plays everyone when he already had the two seed didn't realize I guess that the Eagles had you know four feet essentially the two seed he could have looked up at any point in time and realized what was going on and that they were safe with the two seed anyways and rested his guys but that's not what happened so they're lucky that they didn't get anybody hurt and they're going in at full strength but I feel like the fact that the Packers got that extra week of rest, they gave themselves a bye headed into the playoffs is going to be beneficial.

1:21:45Because, I mean, both games that they played, they've played this, what, the third time in like six weeks that they've played each other. They know each other. Both games were very close. So I think that health might be what the advantage is in this situation. And that's where the Packers kind of have the advantage, the upper hand. There's one of my favorite theories in play too here, House. the bears when was the last like really important bears playoff game the crowd's going it's a it's a saturday night it's the most important bear for a lot of people people bring in their kids who are 13 who have never been to a huge bears game people flying into chicago and sometimes if you can punch those teams in the mouth early that crowd gets like like super shell-shocked.

1:22:30On the flip side, if it goes well for the Bears right away, it becomes like the most festive, fucking crazy atmosphere. So I almost feel like the first quarter, you're going to know whoever you picked. You're going to be like, oh man, I can't. It's going to be one of those. You'll know in the first half hour with this game, I think. The weird thing about those two games is that both, like they ended up being great games, but both first halves kind of sucked. So week 14 is 7-3 at halftime. Week 16, it was 6-0 at halftime. They were both not good games at the beginning and then turned into great ones in the second half.

1:23:04The Bears did that a few times this year where they just limp along offensively for two-plus hours. The burden piece is, I think, a fun wrinkle for this because he really was good in that Week 17 game against the Niners. And Collinsworth does make it seem like he knew this was coming for weeks, but it was really like his breakout game. But if they can get a Dunze back and have actually some weapons. but I like the Packers. Well, this next one is my favorite of the six on the board, Bills, Jags. I've tipped this off a couple times this week. I love the Jaguars in this game. I can't believe they're not favored.

1:23:38Like, I literally can't believe it. Weighted DVOA, their third. They have some really nice wins, including beat Houston by seven, beat the Chargers by 29, won in Denver by 14, killed Carolina, beat San Francisco by five. Buffalo's big wins are the Pats, where they came back from 21 down on one by four and then they killed Pittsburgh. And that was it. They had as easy of a schedule as the Patriots did. Mildly warm weather, which I think we have to mention. We don't know if Josh Allen's completely healthy. We don't know if we trust the Bills kicker at all. Bills defense last two months gave up 30 to Billy's Miami Dolphins, 32 to Tampa, 34 to Cincinnati, 31 to the Pats.

1:24:22and most important, the Jags have won eight straight and they beat Denver and they really whooped Denver and the Chargers. Did 31st downs in that Chargers game. I don't get it. What am I missing, Billy? All right, so here is my storyline for this game. Does Trevor Lawrence pull the classic Royal Rumble move where he's just been forgotten, essentially, sneak back into the conversation and win a playoff game? Because everybody's painting this game as, look, there's now a clear path. There's no roadblocks for Josh Allen. Mahomes is out. Lamar Jackson is out. There's no Joe Burrow. There's only one stadium that Josh Allen hasn't played in his career.

1:25:06It's Levi's Stadium. Is this his path? Is Super Bowl a destiny for Josh Allen this season? And we've completely forgotten about Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence comes into the league and he's viewed as, this is a generational quarterback. This is the best quarterback we've seen since Andrew Luck, who was the best quarterback we've seen, you know, since Peyton Manning. And then he goes and he has the first season where he has like a bad season, but that's Urban Meyer. So there's an asterisk for Trevor Lawrence on his first season. Big fat asterisk. Second season, nine and eight, wins five straight games, goes to the playoffs.

1:25:39They're losing that game the entire time. The Chargers game. An absolute collapse by the Chargers. So he wins that game. Next season, Trevor Lawrence, okay, this is the year. that Trevor Lawrence, he arrived last season. He took his team to playoffs, gets that playoff win. This is the season that he takes that next step. Eight and eight season, five straight losses to end the year. They missed the playoffs. Then he gets injured last year. This season starts out five and four. So you're kind of like, you know what? This may not actually happen for Trevor Lawrence. Oh, we were on this podcast. I was out, done.

1:26:16Okay. Because when you blow two in a row, this is the years, I'm out. It seemed like he, okay, so him and Josh Allen were kind of opposite, right? Where Josh Allen came in, he's the number seven pick. His team is booing him. The fans are booing the draft pick. He has a complete disaster for a season in terms of turnovers. Then Brian Dable fixes him. And then all of a sudden, he makes his way up to like top one, tier one or tier two of quarterbacks. And then he's in the discussion. Then it becomes a question of like, well, when is he going to finally win the big one? When is he going to get over that hump?

1:26:46When can you beat the Chiefs? And then he wins the MVP, so we kind of like give him a pass. So it's like, okay, well, Josh Allen's there. Now he has a clear field. So now the pressure's on Josh Allen. Trevor Lawrence is that wrestler that goes in. He leaves five minutes into the Royal Rumble. He's laying outside by the announcer's booth. He's forgotten. He's hiding under the ring. No one remembers that Trevor Lawrence is even there. Oh, he's hiding under the ring? I like this. Yeah, yeah. He's pulling a hornswoggle. Did he get knocked out? I don't even remember. No, he's still there. It's a Jericho.

1:27:13You forget that he's even still in the match until there's like three people left. All of a sudden he slides right back into the conversation. That's where Trevor Lawrence is. Because you were saying, like you were out on him earlier this year. On the NFL show with Shield, we were talking about, do these quarterbacks have it? Like, are these quarterbacks, like these are just not good quarterbacks? And the number one conversation that we had is are these good quarterbacks? Was Trevor Lawrence. And since we had that conversation. I remember that. I listened to that in New York City in November and I felt like that was the same Trevor Lawrence conversation for two years.

1:27:44Does he have it? What's going on here? Then he went on an eight game win streak and he shut us up very quickly. You put a fire under him. Yeah. But everyone again has forgotten Trevor Lawrence in the conversation of next round of quarterbacks. And now there's a new batch of young quarterbacks were there. And Trevor Lawrence is existing in this nice world where there doesn't seem to be any pressure on him whatsoever. And I wonder if now this is when he thrives. You know who hasn't forgotten about him? His teammates. Did you see the Diamond Grill video? I did. His teammates love him. It's weird because I always was like, he seems like kind of a strange teammate, but his teammates are all in.

1:28:23I've watched him. I've studied him in the post-game win videos when the coach turns it over to the QB. It really does seem like he's emerged. House, he's 10 touchdowns, zero interceptions his last three home games. They've won eight straight. He killed Denver in Denver. That was when I gave up. I was like, this guy's good. Denver's a good team. He went in there and he rammed it up their butthole. House, what are your Trevor Lawrence's thoughts? Well, you hit on one of the key aspects to this. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been very good at home this year. This is a good home team.

1:29:00And they have a good crowd. Good crowd. They have three wins over playoff teams, as well as good wins over the Chiefs early in the season, and I would say a good win over the Colts, who they kind of own in Jacksonville. So I'm glad you mentioned that. Yeah, they beat KC in Indianapolis when those teams were actually good. And those don't get counted in the playoff wins, but they were playoff wins at the time. So they've had seven really good wins. And by contradistinction, the splits between Buffalo at home and Buffalo on the road are stark. And so I just feel like, I can see that Jacksonville crowd.

1:29:39I can see the symbiosis between Leon Cohen and Trevor Lawrence. They finally are at a spot where they're speaking the same love language. They understand how to tickle each other. And it's been very successful. The thing we'll see is their ability to establish the run and especially establish the run outside. that's been uh buffalo's bugaboo all season long but um i just love the idea do you think the bills are that good i i don't get it it's basically josh just josh some duct tape and some thumbtacks and some james cook i mean james cook the run game the run game but i'm saying we've seen over and over again they've come behind they've fallen behind and then josh brings him back which which was what happened in the second pats game yeah james cook's really good I think Jacksonville can take James Cook out.

1:30:33So it'll come down to a Josh thing again. Well, I think that they have what they have like one of the league's best like rushing defenses. So it's the best rushing against the best rushing defense. It's a classic. Something's got to give game here. You know, what do you think that Trevor Lawrence can lose a week where he's gifted grills by his teammates and then randomly shows up at a fan bar and is squatted by fans who put him over their shoulder? I would say no. I think this thing, House and I are old. I've just seen this too many times now. This is why I think round two is going to be Jacksonville, New England to make the Super Bowl.

1:31:08I just think they have the look. They've hit every checkpoint. They're home. They're somehow underdogs. There's no world where there should be bills by one and a half. I think this line should be like Jacksonville by two and a half. From manifesto, nobody believes in us. They got that. They got the cold weather team playing in humid weather. They have the nerd evidence and they have the home field advantage. And Buffalo, the only thing you would point to them is like, Trevor Lawrence is going to turn into a pumpkin. He's been waiting to do this to you for nine weeks. Don't trust him. But I kind of trust him after the Denver game.

1:31:43I thought he answered all the questions. I have a prop for you. ETN 60 plus rushing yards. Tootin 20 plus rushing yards. Lawrence 20 plus rushing yards. Jags plus one and a half. Plus 458 house. just back in the old Jags running the ball a little bit because I think they'll be able to run the ball on the Bills. I want to get in on that. So send it to me. And also, if you think Buffalo is going to win this game, the South special is in play. Jags winning the first half. Buffalo winning the game. Big Josh Allen comeback. That's plus 650, Billy. I love the Jags plus one and a half. I love the Jags in any tees.

1:32:24House and I, I promise you, will be teasing the Jaguars and the Packers this weekend. I already know it. I know we're going to text about it. Billy, who do you have? I have the Jaguars winning also. I feel like they have the momentum. Trevor Lawrence has no one paying attention to him. I feel like they're going to establish the run with Etienne. I mean, his over 15.5 rushing attempts is plus 110 if you want to take him. The Bills have a good pass defense, so they're probably going to want to establish a run against the Bills. I feel like maybe weather comes into play. Maybe it gets a little wet here, but I think that the Jaguars kind of pull this one out.

1:32:55And we did mention the other coach that is a little gamey for these playoffs, Sean McDermott. He seems to sneak by every year. Every year. And every year, it's like stuff that I never feel great about. I thought I was out on this Bills team as a playoff threat when they had the Brandon Cooks variable in that, what was that, the Eagles game when Brandon Cooks made the big play. And I was like, Brandon Cooks is on the Bills? I had no idea. We've reached that point of the receiver season for these guys. It's like, Ken Coleman's a healthy scratch. I just don't think I think the Jags can get explosive plays I think they can run the ball and I think their defense is good they're gonna be fired up and nobody believes in them we're gonna take one more break we'll do the other three games Eagles minus four and a half 49ers is our next game this is a Saturday afternooner it's probably gonna be cold the nerd stats do not like San Francisco's defense I don't like San Francisco's defense they lost their two best players they patched stuff together Now they've lost all their linebackers.

1:33:56They got run up and down the field by the Bears. And then that Seahawks game in week 17 felt like that could have been more of a blowout than it was. Sam Darnold had other ideas. San Francisco's last 10 games, they've averaged 27.5 points a game, even with the stinker against Seattle. Philly's last nine games is 19 points a game. Philly's laying four and a half in this. The only case I can think of for Philly here is that it's hard for them to score points and it's easier for San Francisco to score points. And if you just do the points, this will be in the 20s and it'll be close and take the points.

1:34:36Philly, I don't want to take the points, but what's your angle? I have three storylines to watch in this one. First storyline to watch is the fix in. So if you start looking at this game, Do you want the Eagles to go deep on a deep run here? Do you want a potential situation where you have an established team in the Super Bowl where we talked about there aren't really name brands? If you're buying into the fact that the fix may be in in any games in this playoffs, it might be this one where the head official assigned to this game is Alan Eck. So Alan Eck has been an official in the NFL since 2016.

1:35:08He wears number 76. That's not important. But he grew up in Williamsport, PA, allegedly grew up an Eagles fan. And in games that he's officiated, the Eagles have an 8-1 record where the 49ers have a 3-6 record. Oh, wow. Will there be home cooking with this officiating crew? I like it. This is good. Good start. Strengthens our Eagles case. What do you got next? All right. What's the expiration date on a revenge game? Because a lot that's being talked about in this game is going back to the NFC Championship game a couple years ago, which ended up being a disastrous game where Brock Purdy goes out, Josh Johnson goes out.

1:35:46Yeah, and also, like, was it the Eagles' fault that their guys got hurt? I mean, the 49ers fan seems to be holding this against the Eagles for all of these years, but can you have a revenge game if the first game is an NFC championship game and the second one is a wild card weekend round? Like, I feel like this is not fitting of the title of revenge game, but both fan bases are trying to make this a thing, it seems. That's dumb. I don't agree with it. The Eagles defense, look at the personnel. It's basically 100 % different. Well, and it's also 100%. Has anybody hurt on Philly's defense anymore?

1:36:26Aren't they healthy and coming and ready to roll? Yes. Yeah, this is... What's the third angle, Billy? All right, here's a storyline that you should watch that has come out, a report that came out this week that you might want to look into. It doesn't affect this game because it's in Philadelphia. However, there has been a study into this electrical substation outside of Levi's Stadium. We read this. Okay. So keep an eye on that situation because that is something that could play out in the Super Bowl because it's in Levi's Stadium. And it could be an explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been getting so hurt.

1:37:04You have a guy who's the founder of something called Sunlight is Life, which is described as a platform for transforming your relationship with light for maximum impact on health. And he went out there with something called a gauss meter and he started taking readings at the practice field where he said the reading is 8.5 milligausses when the average is somewhere in I think like the 0.3 to 5 range. Then he went and he went to like the weight room and the milligausses were somewhere in the 10 to 25 range. Then they were telling him to leave. They started to get testy with him. Well, I start wondering why.

1:37:38They figured out the situation. There's a lot of milligauses going on, apparently, near Levi's Stadium. Apparently, because of the fact that there's this substation right next to the stadium, there's an increased exposure to chronic ELF, and that ends up affecting cartilages and can lead to ruptures. So the explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been so hurt over the years and why people get hurt at Levi's Stadium. Some people have said it's probably the turf. It's probably the playing surface. But no, it might be this substation that's right across the street from Levi's Stadium. Well, you undersold.

1:38:12They have, what was it? They had like way more tendon injuries than everybody else the last 10 years. Like a much, like a kind of aberration type of number. It's tendons, ligaments, all of, and Achilles, all of those injuries. It's way higher than the average, not just with them, but with visiting teams coming and getting hurt. It's something that should be considered. Maybe not for this game because it's a road game, but someone needs to look into this situation. Don't worry. I had it down as one of the manifesto rules that apply to this game. Rule number five, beware of any team that could use a notable off-field distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force.

1:38:49Could it be the Niners, like a Norma Ray or Silkwood situation, the work proletariat rising up to protest the ELM, bans them together? there? I don't know. We found it. We thought that it didn't exist, but we found the rally. Could they be like they refuse to play in round two if they don't fix the electromagnetic force that's endangering their tennis? I thought that was the weirdest story of the year. The year's only eight days old. The other one was the Ashley Tisdale mom group, toxic mom group story. Yeah. I don't know if you followed that one. Then the people in the mom group came flying back at her.

1:39:23I don't know this one. You didn't follow this one? I don't know this one. Ashley Tisdale wrote an essay about her toxic mom group that shut her out and excluded her and how mean everybody was. And then the mom group started lobbing shots back. And this is my wife's Super Bowl. I have the NFL playoffs. My wife had this. Hilary Duff's husband was then like subtweeting her, basically like taking pictures, like the picture that she put in her essay. And then they started bringing in like seemingly non-celebrity moms in this mom group and putting out pictures of their whole family. Like, look at this person.

1:39:54This is who this is. You should hate that. It's very weird. It's very weird. And here's the thing about Ashley Tisdale that I think she's going to learn. And I am not, my wife is not part of any celebrity mom groups, but something that she'll learn normal mom groups, normal dad groups, exactly the same and exactly as toxic as celebrity mom and dad groups is what you're going to find. Don't exclude us. Nothing has anything. Celebrity has nothing to do with it. There are toxic people in all of these parent groups. You're not going to escape it. Yeah, it's the moms spend more time talking about the other moms in the group than their own kids.

1:40:30I can't believe that she had that party and didn't invite blank. And then that's just like three days of texts and arguments. Yeah, it's never really been captured in a TV show. I've never seen it captured correctly like in an HBO, the whole mom group concept. You think that's the angle? I don't think it's enough. That's probably why it hasn't been captured. But I guess the closest was Big Little Lies got into it a little bit with the Nicole Kidman show with got into some of it, but not in the way. Maybe Ashley, maybe this will be a TV show. The Ashley Tisdale. I mean, it's the premise of like every housewives, though, like no scripted show.

1:41:08I guess reality. Yeah. Every housewives, the Mormon wives on Hulu, like all of those really capture the essence of this story. Well, the problem with the mom groups, the dad groups, we're just we're just meaner. We'll cut people out. But the mom groups, once people in, they're in for life. Yeah. And once you get added to the text chain, you can't get out of that. Well, it's because there's always an ally. There's always... Yeah, they always have the one. Yeah, because that's what... We saw this in college. These groups of giant 16-person girl groups. And then there are all these little rivalries and things going on in the middle of it.

1:41:40You also have the private allies that won't speak out publicly. And then you're like, what are you doing? You're on my side. What's happening here? Why don't you stand up for me here? That's how. Yeah, House never stands up for anybody. How dare you? House, any angles for you before I go into the manifesto for this? No, we covered. For Eagles-Ness? All right. Go ahead. You're going to make the pick. Well, nobody believes in us is in play for the Niners. We mentioned the galvanizing force. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. This is a big one. Rule number 14, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel.

1:42:16Doesn't look like Trent Williams in this game for the Niners. And if I knew he was playing, I would be more excited about Rams plus four and a half. I also don't love how McCaffrey looked the last couple of weeks with the back stuff. Ricky Pearsall might not play. We talked about all the defensive. I just don't think, I just feel like sometimes in football, you can pass the point of no return with injuries. And I feel like we're there with the Niners and I wish they were healthier because I would love to go against this Eagles team. Coaching stuff we talked about, home field advantage we talked about.

1:42:49there's a parlay possibility for ringer 107 house with Eagles money and either under 51 and a half or over 37 and a half. Do you have a strong feel on over under in this? Cause we know Eagles methodical. Nick Sirianni does the thing. He tries to limit the amount of minutes in the game cause he feels like he has a better team, but does the under 51 and a half intrigue you at all? Well, I already bet the under. It opened at 46. It's down to 44 and a half. I bet it again. I think this is a classic Philadelphia Eagles strangle a team. And we just watched this football team, this football game. It was the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco winning 13 to three.

1:43:31As soon as this Eagles team gets to 10 points or 13 points or 16 points, the game is over. Yeah, they go into the four corners. Do you like that, Billy? Eagles money line with under 51.5 and then we don't have to worry about the hook? Or are you just like Eagles minus 4.5? I think I'd take a minus 4.5. Looking at the second part of rule number 15, would you trust either of these coaches with your passport when abroad? Like Shanna has kind of... Sirianni I feel like would very easily lose my passport and all my possessions. That's what Big Dom is for. You have to give it to Big Dom. Well, he would have Big Dom, so he might not lose it.

1:44:07He knows he can't manage the passport. That's why he has Big Dom. That Super Bowl saved him because he was on the hot seat forever. And that almost seemed like if there's a coach that gets fired after winning a Super Bowl, it's probably Nick Sirianni. Just because he seems like that type of guy. But Shanahan's also sneaky in a situation when you're like, are we going to get over this hump? There's been the injuries. There's been that substation across the street that's been sabotaging you, obviously, and your player's health. But when are you going to take this to the next level? What's going on here?

1:44:35Well, the comeback stat with him is the weirdest one. The no comebacks for more than seven in the fourth quarter since 2017. That's got to be the weirdest stat in the week. All right, so we'll either for a ringer 107, we'll either do Eagles minus four and a half. We'll make a game time decision on that. Next game. This is where House and I, our friendship's going to be tested. Patriots minus three and a half Chargers. The nerd stats favor the Pats. Chargers nerd stats surprisingly disappointing, including their offense, which 26th pass EPA. The Pats were first. Chargers defense nine versus the pass against EPA and third against the run.

1:45:15So that's a big strength with them. Both teams have three wins against decent teams. Chargers lost to Jacksonville by 19, Houston by four, and Indianapolis when they were good by 14. The Pats last 14 games, Billy, what do you think they're averaging points per game? Last 14 games. 22. 30.7. Wow. Easy schedule. They haven't scored less than 24 since week three. They have 28 games, or 10 games over 28 points. And before Billy gets to his big angle on this game, I just want to say two things about the quarterbacks. Do you have quarterbacks in your angle? I have quarterback adjacent angles. Do your angle, and then I'll do my thing.

1:46:05All right. Well, the first angle, we can do this angle really quick. This is the third angle, but we'll get to it quickly to get it out of the way. What happened to Justin Herbert? This is kind of along the same lines of Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert was promised to be this guy. He's this great quarterback. It's just a situation that's not working. 0-2 in the playoffs. He has that collapse against Trevor Lawrence. One of the worst losses. He has a good record, obviously, this season, 11-6. By the way, really bad last year in the playoff game. Don't sweep that one under the rug either. He's not been good in the playoffs.

1:46:36He hasn't lived up to the hype, but he also kind of is living in the world of Trevor Lawrence that it's like, oh, we just forgot about him because he didn't pan out to be exactly what we thought he'd be. Maybe he'll still get there. He's still in the playoffs. The nerds didn't forget about him. The nerds still love him. Well, the nerds have loved the Chargers for the longest time because the nerds love Brandon Staley also. Like the nerds, that was their poster child was Brandon Staley. And the nerds took like a big hit and I think it hurt their heart. when Brandon Staley got fired so quickly. So they can't, they have, they're almost forced to love Herbert because they don't want to give up.

1:47:11It's like the process, right? Like they don't want to admit the process was wrong. So they're just going to keep moving the kind of the goalposts and like, no, no, we still believe in Justin Herbert. It's just circumstances. It's not Justin Herbert's fault. So that's one thing to look at. Here's another storyline. Is there any chance in the world that Patriots Hall of Famer, Tom Brady, wants the Patriots to win this game? zero because oh no he does like josh mcdaniels that would be the only thing he likes josh mcdaniels but he has really been put in a bad spot with this drake may because drake may very well may win the mvp this season and if he wins the mvp this season that little feud and tom brady has lost they found their franchise quarterback they win an mvp now if he doesn't win the mvp but they win a playoff game like we know drake may is the future for the patriots yeah i don't think that Tom Brady even wants them to win this game.

1:48:04A guy that's in their Hall of Fame has a statue, I believe is actively rooting for the Chargers to beat the Patriots just out of jealousy and spite for Drake May, which is insane because he has nothing to be jealous of with Drake May. The good news is he's not announcing this game. Yeah. I forgot to mention this as part of the Rams-Panthers thing. Greg Olson is announcing the game. Oh boy. I might put 40 bucks on the Panthers money line. I mean, it's just shitty to do to the Rams fans. You're watching your team play a playoff game. Somebody is a nest in the game who loves the other team and can't hide it, basically.

1:48:43I think he might even live there. Olsen with the Panthers, the ref and the Eagles. Yeah, that's what's the new in the Panthers game. I just wanted to mark that down. All right, what was your third thing, Billy? My third one, and this is like very inside that relates just to this show and this company. I'm wondering how the outcome of this game is going to affect your debut on Netflix because you're coming straight out of this game. You're not the only one wondering about this. If this is a situation, it's like the weather's going to be a little bit sloppy, 26 degrees, partly cloudy, 25 % chance of precipitation.

1:49:17You're coming right out of this game. Like literally right out. Like we're here. You're going to have no time to like decompress whatsoever. Like your actual, like full emotions will be on display. How are you going to handle if the Patriots have like a late game situation where they blow this game? I did mention to somebody two days ago that if it was a Tyler book kind of ending and we were like going live four minutes later, I don't, that might be the first time I try cocaine house. Oh, I encourage that. Please. right? Like the Coke on Netflix. Let's do that. No, I don't. I, it's going to, it's definitely a psychology experiment.

1:50:02I'm hoping the Patriots make it a little bit easier for us with that. Do you think you're going to be able to like enjoy the game knowing that you're going to go live right after? Like what point do you like, I need to kind of get into podcast mode, sit down, turn the equipment on and get ready to go. I don't think I've ever enjoyed a game where my team was favored to win the game and it was a playoff game. I don't know how you enjoy that. The enjoyable ones are when you're like the 2001 Pats when we were like 10 point underdogs in Pittsburgh. And it was like, you're just playing. I love the house money playoff games.

1:50:33This one where they're favored. I feel like the AFC is open. I feel like they're better than most people think they are, including house. So there's a lot at stake. And the big angle for me on top of your angles, I genuinely think Drake may is like special as a quarterback. I really feel like he's great. Like he's like my homes in 2018, where after a while you're like, this guy's fucking great. You could just say Jaden Daniels last year who won two road playoff games. Jaden Daniels, who got hurt this year, but last year. Could say him. At some point we watched Jaden Daniels and was like, this guy's great.

1:51:10And we've had this happen with quarterbacks every once in a while in the playoffs. And I just think he has it. I think his teammates think he has it. So for me, it's like, I think they're going to be able to move the ball. They got their left tackle back. I think they're going to be able to run the ball a little more than people realize because of Ramondre and Henderson coming on. And I think the Chargers have a lot of trouble, especially if Hampton's not 100 % healthy. They don't score a lot of points. The Chargers, what do they have? It's basically like 19 points a game, their last 10 or something.

1:51:45They play 17, 14, 20 to 16 type of games, right? Herbert in the playoffs, I like. he's also fumbled a lot lately. He only had two fumbles, I think, in the first 12 games. He's fumbled the ball five times since he hurt his non-throwing hand. So if it's not ideal conditions, he could be turning this ball over. We have playoff manifesto rule, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Who has a worse offensive line than the Chargers? We have the warm weather team coming to play in the cold weather at night. We have the never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they can win, which house thinks they can win, and then the home field advantage.

1:52:23But I just think the Pats are better than people think. I don't think people realize that they didn't have Milton Williams and Will Campbell for, you know, four or five weeks there. And people got too fixated on the schedule. They can move the ball. They have number one offense by EPA, and they have a quarterback who's excellent. House, make the case against them. Yeah, I'm not going to be a prick about it. I just think that three and a half is too many points. Like, I wouldn't mess with this if it was two and a half or two or whatever. Like the Patriots as a home field, you know, having a home field advantage as a 14-3, two seed, like I'd leave it alone.

1:53:02But three and a half is too many. And there's a handful of reasons why. First of all, this Chargers team is tough. They've won tough games. They have three wins over playoff teams. They swept the Chiefs. And, you know, we watched that Monday night game against the Philadelphia Eagles still stuck in my craw. Now, Hertz aided and abetted the demise of the Eagles in that game. But Herbert was pressured 70 % of the time and took seven sacks. And they won that effing football game because their defense shut down the Eagles. Now, I'm not suggesting that, you know, the Eagles offense and New England's offense are equivalent.

1:53:43They certainly are not. And I don't have really have much quibble with Drake May winning MVP this year. I think there's a good case for Stafford. But if Drake May wins, I'm certainly not going to be upset. The problem I have is what you've hit on a couple of times, which is what do we know about this Patriots team against tough competition? They placed one good quarterback. He's Josh Allen. They split with him. Justin Herbert's going to be the second best quarterback that they face all season long. 14 wins for the Patriots 11 of those wins have come against teams with rookie quarterbacks backup quarterbacks or back quarterbacks that got benched 11 of 14 so that goes to a lot of what we were talking about with the can I zag on that point?

1:54:32you can I think that's why people are off the Patriots a little bit because I think people are too fixated on the schedule well not fixated it's just what happened but I think they're actually a good team is my point. We're going to find out 13 and one in their last 14. We're going to find out Buffalo game. They're up 21. They really could have won their last 14. That's the part I'm confused by. The quarterback's great. They can run the ball and throw the ball and they're home. And three and a half is a fair line. I honestly think they should be favored by four, but what do I know? It's a playoff debut though, for him.

1:55:04Do you think that's going to impact him at all? Or you think he's just got it? I went back and I looked to my homes. Mahomes had the zero touchdown, zero picks in his first playoff game, which they won, and then had the 37-31 game against the Pats. I haven't seen no defense. If you blitz them, he knows what to do. If you play back in zone, he kind of knows what to do. The only issue with this team is sometimes they start out slow, and there's a scenario where they start out slow. Chargers get the McConkie 35-yard touchdown or whatever. They're playing behind. can I debunk the Chargers defense for a second because the stats are really good for them and I think people think they're really good so I'm just going to lay out some stuff here they played Vegas twice and they played KC twice and I don't think, does anyone think KC had a good offense even with Mahomes?

1:55:52they were fine, like mediocre not explosive, they couldn't run the ball they were a 500 team they had two games where the best wide out on the other team, blew out his ACL in the first half of the game Neighbors and Tyreek Hill. So there's another two. They played Broken Carson Wentz of Minnesota. They played Tennessee. They played Week 18 Denver when nobody cared. Dallas, Pickens had 130 on them. AJ, that Philly game when Philly was in a coma, AJ still ended up with 100. Sutton had 6-4, 118 in the first game. Jacksonville smoked them. Indianapolis smoked them with deep balls and running everything earlier in the season.

1:56:33Washington beat them 27-10. You remember that one, House? I did. Multiple big plays. Houston beat them a couple weeks ago, got two bombs in the first quarter, and that made the difference. And the only one that you could really make the case their defense was awesome was when they shut down Pittsburgh. But I don't know if their defense is as good as people seem to think it is. We'll find out on Sunday night. That's right. The thing they're good at is limiting explosives. There's a bunch of indicators that say that they don't allow deep passes. I looked at that, but they've allowed a bunch of them, though.

1:57:08Houston had two two weeks ago. That's fine. But across the entire body of the season, they're one of the very best at limiting 20-yard or deeper passes. And that's the thing. Your white guy on Washington got a 50-yarder on them. Oh, they're gettable. Don't let their, you know, don't get it twisted again. I feel like they can get them. Do you think the weather's going to allow explosive plays? Like, this feels like a game. It doesn't seem to affect the bats. Yeah. He's going to try and throw deep no matter what. He doesn't care about the weather. I mean, I'll give you, can I walk you through the worst case scenario for this game for the Pats?

1:57:40Ramondre fumble, some sort of dumb special teams thing. Drake has the first half interception that makes everyone go, oh God, he's so young. And then some big Chargers explosive play. You know, the hot head coaching candidate is Jesse Minter, the defensive coordinator for the Chargers, right? I mean, I heard his name come out in connection with Baltimore. This is a referendum, right? This defense. When they've had Derwin James and Khalil Mack this season, it's been a pretty good defense. Pats are pretty healthy. I'll throw this in too, guys. Everyone's taking the Chargers. This has been like one of the popular, I think the most popular of the six for underdog picks has been the Chargers.

1:58:25And I just think people are looking at the Pats schedule. So I like the spot the Pats are in, minus three and a half. There's a prop I like too. Hunter Henry, 30-plus receiving yards on FanDuel with the Pats just to win. That's minus 102. I think Hunter Henry will be hurt from in this game. Hampton's hurt. Eduardo, who's a Chargers fan, who I'll probably not be talking to after Sunday night, who works on our podcast with us, reminded me that Hampton got hurt near the end of that last game. Might not be 100%. Gadsden's fine. Last thing I'll give you. How's New England against tight ends? Guy by the name of Mike Vrabel.

1:59:05Five times, five playoff games for him. Played Lamar twice, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes in those five games. 19.8 points a game in those five games for the opponents. There's some losses in there. I'm just saying, Mike Vrabel is a good coach, and I don't think he gets mentioned in this. Harbaugh? Harbaugh, good coach? How many Super Bowls did Harbaugh win? The same as Mike Vrabel. how many Super Bowls has Vrabel been to? I'm taking Pats minus three and a half. House can fuck off. We'll go to the next one. By the way, you're wrong. The percentage of bets is 64 % for New England. The money is 65 % New England.

1:59:45The public is not on New England. That's not what the people in Boston, they think everybody's picking the Chargers. I talked to my dad two hours ago. My dad said everyone's picking the Chargers. That might have been an erroneous report for my 70-year-old retired father. The mass holes. Everybody's against us. Jesus. Everyone's against us. Texans, Steelers. This dropped to, what was it? Minus two and a half went to three and a half. Now it's at three. Didn't it start at two and a half though, House? It did. It definitely started at two and a half. Yes. This is another one. I love Billy. love the game yeah I do because initially I had the same instincts everyone else had of, oh, Houston.

2:00:30And then you start staring into it. You take a chug of the voodoo juice that Pittsburgh has. It's just improbable. This is great. It'll be the chase game for everybody who lost money on Saturday, Sunday, put money on Houston minus three. I've just seen this too many times. Take 10 seconds. What's in voodoo juice? What like, I mean, Iron City is the beer up there. Iron City beer. Put a tiny bit of that. But what's the liquor they drink up there? Ask Horlbeck. Ask Craig. Well, let's make a voodoo juice. I'll drink it. I'll drink it Monday night. There's some Permanente juice. Yeah, well, that's...

2:01:03There's some Mike Tomlin sweat. The run over of the grease from the Permanente sandwich. I don't know. Yeah, there's some Permanente grease. Billy, what do you have for the angle? So I have two storylines for this one. The first one, Texans are not a Monday team. If you look at the Texans in the playoffs, the Texans are a Saturday team. They should be playing on Saturday. The shakies game. This is the first game that they have played in wildcard round that is not on a Saturday. There's six and two on Saturdays when they advance and then they go and they play on Sundays. They've lost both Sunday games that they played.

2:01:36They're also 0-2 on Monday Night Football this season. So they're not a Monday team. Craig mentioned it earlier this week. The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday Night Football since 1991. Texans are coming in hot. but it feels like we talked about the fix being in another game with the officials. It feels like this game was put on Monday night simply to give the Steelers a fighting chance. Like give them the day they played last week, get Rogers healthy. We can't have him play on short rest six days only after Sunday night football. We'll give them the Monday night game and then things will hopefully take care of themselves.

2:02:14We'll get, you know, the Tomlin narrative. We'll get the Rogers narrative. Maybe this is the year he does one last run. It feels like maybe the fix was in with the scheduling on this one. Plus, the Steelers now get DK Metcalf back, which DK Metcalf, you saw how important he was. That game in Cleveland, they should have wrapped up the division. They ended up not winning because of the fact there was no receivers out there. They end up kind of hanging on because of the misfield the last week where DK would have been important to them. So DK coming back is huge. But Texans, not a Monday Night Football team.

2:02:45On top of that, there's some pretty disturbing CJ Stroud outdoor stats that I didn't love. There is some really, really alarming Houston rushing stats. And I had Woody Marks on my fantasy team. The problem with Woody Marks is he looks good for an hour and then all of a sudden he's not in the game anymore. And then he's got the red flag next to him. He had a record like 12 straight games or something that he left early, I think, during the season. I don't trust him in Pittsburgh on a Monday night. Then I'm down to Nick Chubb. Houston's offense, 30th EPA run. Defense, first against the pass, 11th against the run.

2:03:26And that's the best reason to take them. Pittsburgh's ridiculous. You look at the Houston wins. Their best wins were Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chargers, Niners. They came back from 19 in that Jacksonville game with Davis Mills. That was weird. They beat Mac Jones in San Francisco. No boasts on Warner was right after they got hurt. They beat Buffalo in that Thursday night game that I still don't know what happened. And Josh was driving at the end and they ended up losing. The Chargers game was just ridiculous where they got the two early passes, gassed and fumbled at the goal line. That was a dopey game.

2:04:01They lost to Jacksonville, the Rams, Seattle, and Denver. The big things for me is a possible house that Pittsburgh is just the good, bad team. and they've roped us into this moment. And every win they've had was explicable. They wouldn't even be in the playoffs if Tyler Loop can just kick a field goal straight. And then they go into this and Houston's defense just runs over them. And we're like, God, how stupid were we we thought Pittsburgh was going to win that game? I'm willing to live with that outcome. This is like all the stuff. This is the worst football field, not just in professional football, but definitely in college, maybe in America.

2:04:42We have to go to some high school fields to find a football field as bad as this. Watch the guys when they run. It's sand getting kicked up every single time that anybody takes a meaningful step. And on top of that, part of the voodoo, we just watched it. It's impossible to kick the football in this field. Kaimi Fairbarn, he wants to miss extra points anyway. He wants to miss extra points when he's in his own dome stadium. Let them get out here with, you know, there's supposed to be potential for precipitation. I knew I could get it out 10 times. I'll try it. Wow, that was impressive, Hess. Yeah, potential for precipitation.

2:05:19And just the usual, the usual weird winds and stuff. I mean, even the Steelers' own guy missed an extra point last week. That's how crazy it is. I was trying to think, like, the score of this game will definitely sound like a war that happened. It'll be like 1918, 1713, 1816. Like it's, you just know it's going to be weird and it won't be in the 20s. Can I ask a weird question? Because this is something else that I was wanting to watch, a story to watch. Do we know that Mike Tomlin wants to win this game? Because there's been conversation about, you know, maybe he's on his way out. He's the longest tenure coach, 19 seasons.

2:06:06Yeah, there was some TV stuff with him that they thought maybe he was going into the wacky world of TV. There's no, he, listen, he's great for short soundbites, but there's no way long form Mike Tomlin on TV is going to work out like in pregame shows. But he's kind of, it seems like they're both, it's a loveless marriage at this point where both sides are like, this isn't going to last forever. I don't want to be the one that calls it quits. They're not going to fire him. They want him to just move on. But how does he do it? You know, there's a talk out there. Well, maybe he, you know, sees an opening like Atlanta.

2:06:38He goes down there. It's an easy division that he can win. But now that Harbaugh's gone in what was a loser leaves town match, maybe that's a game where both people leave town after that game last week, right? Where Harbaugh's out. And now Tomlin says, you know what? I don't have a franchise quarterback here. We have Aaron Rodgers. He kind of hinted at this was his last season, but you never know with Aaron. Now he makes the playoffs. He says, you know what? I got one more ride in me. Do I really want to have a 20th season here? And my quarterback is 49-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who's not going to get it done.

2:07:09I'm not going to win again. Or do I look over there where, you know, John Harbaugh left. There's an opening over there. You have a franchise quarterback. You have a running back. What are you doing right now? You have a situation where you have Mike McDaniel, who can you bring in as an offensive coordinator to kind of play with the toys. This is amazing. This is like a fucking WWE move. He heads over to Baltimore after ending their season, and he has this roster that's so much better than what he's dealing with now, but you can't do that if you win a playoff game. So does he actually want to win this game and just prolong a season that's going to end in disappointment anyways?

2:07:49That's amazing. Mike Tomlin blowing this playoff game and then immediately joining the Ravens. I don't even... That's like Hogan joining the NWO. I can't even... It's on par with that. I mean, counter, why couldn't they win this playoff game, go get blown out in the next one, and then he can do this, do it, go right to Baltimore. Yeah, but here's the thing. If they win this playoff game, they go to Denver. Oh, they can definitely win in Denver. Anyone can go and win in Denver. We've seen it over and over again. It's hard to leave if you go on a run. You win one, maybe you get hot, you end up in Denver.

2:08:26So your advice is, yeah. Look, he's a man of integrity. He's not a man that I believe will toss the game. He's a man who on countless occasions has told us he does not blink. But should they lose, I don't think that he will think it's the worst thing in the world. Deep on the inside of him. He won't say it publicly, but on the inside, not the worst thing for Mike Tomlin. So, wow. Manifesto rules. Nobody believes in us. Steelers, they qualify. Never pick an underdog unless you think they can win. yes. Dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather. Catching aging quarterbacks in cold weather.

2:09:08We've already decided Rodgers is immune. When in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and definitely go against the single worst gambler you know. I feel like a lot of people are going to be on Houston as the chase bet minus three on Monday night. Then last but least, the law of Lombardi. bad offensive lines don't travel Houston you qualify for this one and on top of this the CJ Stroud stuff I love this Steelers pick I wish it was 3.5 I don't mind getting the 3 I feel like they could lose and still cover because we're going to have the war of 1816 or the war of 1715 or whatever we get House what do you think about Metcalf 15-1 most receiving yards round 1 Why not?

2:09:5515 to 1. Why not throw a dart? Most receiving yards. Why not? Nobody has more than them. Yeah, I understand. Throw a dart. Go ahead. What's to keep it? What do you think of the under in this game, by the way? The old Anthony DiBondo, Houston under. It's a 38 and a half. I mean, it's literally right there, isn't it? Feels like a teaser for me on Monday. Bringing the Steelers up to plus seven and a half. Bringing that under up even more. I don't think this game gets to 40 points. I don't see it. I can't get past how emotional the Steelers were after they beat Baltimore. Like, those guys, this is the absolute peak of recency bias out of me.

2:10:38But Cam Hayward, Rodgers, they were pouring it out for each other out there. That's a manifesto rule, though. The team that was too excited after in the previous week. No, I don't think they weren't too excited. They clinched their playoff spot on the precipice of missing. They clinched it. Those are all a bunch of vets, too. Are we going to see the Hayward brothers nonsense again this week? Yes. I hated that last week so much. We are definitely going to see it. The worst. I actually think that these guys are related is probably my least favorite media storyline that they feel obligated to hammer home.

2:11:16Like, we get it. TJ Watt and JJ Watter brothers. anyone else on the team could have been pushing the brother anyone else on that team could have been pushing him them bringing in Cam to do that was just to make that a storyline yeah I tried to avoid it but now you've brought it up and now we've fallen prey to their tricks alright today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel it is round one of the playoffs we have five Ringer 107 picks we just spent over seven hours talking about them. First one, Packers minus 1.5 points in Chicago. We laid out all the reasons. We think the Packers can move the ball.

2:12:00We think the Bears, their luck is about to run out. Next one, favorite bet on the board, Jaguars plus one and a half at home against Buffalo. We were all aligned. We can't believe that the Jags aren't favored in this game and that nobody believes in us. We laid that whole case out. Next one, Monday night, our third and final favorite game. Steelers plus three. The voodoo Steelers going against a Houston team that has a lot of tiny playoff manifesto things going against it. Steelers plus three. We're also opening the door for the Steelers to lose by two or one, which is very possible. Anything's in play in this game.

2:12:39Eagles minus four and a half is our next one. We talked long and hard about this. Feels like the Niners have just passed the point and no return with injuries. And then last but not least, House begged me not to do this. Billy urged me to get weird. Pat's money line parlayed with the over of 36.5 points. That's our fifth pick. And then for posterity, just for the quest to go undefeated, Panthers plus 10.5 and Pats minus 3.5, just to have those on the record. House, your favorite of those picks? Jacksonville. Billy, your favorite of those picks? I think the Panthers, which is an unofficial pick, is my favorite of the picks.

2:13:23But of the official picks, I'd say Steelers. I think the Steelers have... Should we throw the Panthers in there and dunk the bats? No, don't. No, don't. That's how I get too crazy. Greg Olson wearing a jersey in the booth? Oh, yeah. I forgot about Greg Olson back there. Panthers unofficial. and those are the Ringer 107 picks for round one. What do you call the playoffs, Billy? Are you a round one guy? Are you a wild card round guy? Where have you landed? There was a, like, are we still in the air of super wild card weekend? Because there was wild card weekend and then there was - That's next weekend.

2:13:57No, next weekend's already the divisional round. Oh, next week since, yeah. Yeah, so there was like, at one point we were referring to it as super wild card weekend, but I think now it's back to just wildcard weekend. How about round one and round two? That sounds pretty good. And then the AFC title game, NFC title game? No, you need a name. Catch a name. It helps me. Wildcard helps me remember, oh yes, there are shitty teams playing this weekend. Now I remember why. This is like the weekend I could still go run errands and it's not really going to impact things because those Saturday games aren't going to matter all that much.

2:14:30Like I don't have to give up my entire weekend for wildcard. I'll catch up with what happened. House, did Billy do enough to come back next week? Oh, it's between him and Schrager. I mean, let him let the joke. You know what? I didn't see him today. He wasn't available. That was an amazing performance. All those storylines were magnificent. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel Odds, subject to change. Before we go, Billy, are you worried about Bam out of bio at all? What's going on with him? Why doesn't he look like a franchise guy anymore? he's always kind of had that situation right where like they wouldn't want to trade him to get anyone because they're like this is our guy this is our franchise guy but he can't carry the team far enough and then the Heat started out and they were looking great and I can't figure out the Heat or Bam or their love obsession with keeping Bam and not improving the team because like to make the Heat better you can't win with Hero and Bam just them right?

2:15:30No. And Norman Powell is fine. You should train hero. You should try to be moving hero trying to upgrade. Keep Norman Papp. I don't know. I don't. What would you do, House? I'm just going to tip my cap to the Podfather. We've been on here for two hours and 20 minutes and we're about to go and you say Hey, Billy. I just, while he was there, I was just curious. I was just curious. We're fucking 40 games. You know what? Barely 40 games. Go ahead. What's going on is House is hungry. Who gives a shit about the I am hungry. House is hungry. When we would drive from Vegas to LA. Let's talk about the Miami Heat.

2:16:06We just did. We have a Miami Heat expert right here. NFL playoffs. Oh, let's talk about the Miami Heat. When we would drive to Vegas, the House would just be calling out fast food. It's like, Jack in the Box. Armies. How about Ben out of bio? Well, now we have NFL picks and we have some thoughts on Ben out of bio. That no one wanted. Ready to go. Are you doing college football tailgate? Yeah, college football. Oh, we're having a Friday edition of college football tailgate to recap the semifinals games. So join us live. Yeah, Friday night. And then House Fairway Rollins starts on Netflix as part of our batch of sports pods going to Netflix.

2:16:49Yeah, we have our debut show next week. Netflix will be on Netflix in two weeks, I think. Okay, great. All right. House, thank you. Appreciate you as always. Thank you. Good to see you guys. All right, thanks to House and Billy. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Rewatchables, it's up. Mailbag last week. What lies beneath coming Tuesday this week. And tickets available starting on Friday for the Live BS Podcast show at the Wiltern in Los Angeles on February 11th. Have a great weekend. Enjoy all the sports. Go Pats, go Celtics. Two big Celtic games this week too. I hope this is a great Boston sports weekend for my Saturday.

2:17:31I will see you on Sunday night.

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