In short
Early-season NBA “uh-oh” teams and a nine-day NBA power poll; then NFL betting/picks with Joe House and Peter Schrager, plus discussion of specific NFL matchups and “stay-away” bets.
Guests and backgrounds
- Joe House: NBA-focused analyst/host (regular basketball segment partner on the show).
- Peter Schrager: NFL analyst and former ESPN/NFL media personality; joins for “Ringer 107” picks and football breakdowns.
Key claims (NBA)
- “Uh-oh” teams: New Orleans Pelicans (over 30.5 win projection; early blowouts/injury issues) and Orlando Magic (defensive problems; Paolo/advanced-stats concerns; defense seems over-dependent on Suggs).
- Orlando’s defense/roster fit is questioned: they can’t rely on one perimeter defender; Isaac’s defensive impact is diminished; Caldwell-Pope previously looked like defensive “glue.”
- Power poll contenders: OKC favorites; contenders include Denver, Knicks, Cleveland; possible contenders include Houston, Golden State (schedule/road-trip test), and San Antonio (Wemby availability and team depth).
- “Let’s see in March” teams: Minnesota, Dallas, Clippers, Lakers. Minnesota’s defense is a red flag (25th defensive rating); Lakers’ outlook hinges on LeBron/Reeves offense despite weak defense depth.
- “Sorry I can’t tell you apart” cluster: Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago (Philly highest upside via Maxey; Detroit safest; Atlanta could fall if defense doesn’t show).
- “Water treaders”: Boston and Memphis (Josh Minot rotation impact; Memphis defense concerns; Cedric Coward replacing Jaren Jackson minutes).
Notable examples
- Orlando’s 136-point loss to Philly; shooting example: 12-for-31 from three vs Detroit.
- Brooklyn “dumping” referenced as horrendous; Michael Porter’s early dominance.
- Schrager’s NFL focus: Cowboys defense talk; Falcons offensive communication issues after a strong start; “stay-away” bets include Chargers -9.5, Rams-Saints -14.5, and Packers -13.5.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VODiscussing World Series and NBA Season
3:35 to 4:40
Bill reflects on the World Series and the start of the NBA season.
“Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live your way.”
Basketball Talk with Joe House
4:40 to 10:00
Bill and Joe House discuss concerns regarding the New Orleans Pelicans and Orlando Magic.
“All right, Thursday afternoon, Joe House is here.”
Power Poll Analysis and Team Discussion
10:00 to 14:00
Bill and Joe analyze team performances and the ongoing NBA season.
“And they were supposed to be like a fringe contender.”
Golden State's Challenging Schedule
14:00 to 16:48
Explore why the NBA's schedule may pose challenges for the Warriors.
“And here's why I made them a possible contender.”
Evaluating Milwaukee's Potential
16:48 to 18:50
Discuss the Milwaukee Bucks' performance and potential as contenders.
“I think he passed through the DC vortex.”
Minnesota's Defensive Struggles
18:50 to 22:30
Analyze the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense and its implications for the team.
“like they this was the concern for the downside case when we're sitting and going through them at 49 and a half wins.”
Concerns for the Clippers and Lakers
22:30 to 24:18
Delve into the issues facing the Los Angeles Clippers and the Lakers' performance.
“Like, you know, the trade, we didn't have to wait for the maestro.”
Trade Talk: Paul George's Future
24:18 to 26:04
Speculate on potential trade scenarios involving Paul George and their implications.
“Um, that Rozier trade that, that contract is a wonderful asset magically out of nowhere.”
Nuggets and Food Critique
28:00 to 29:14
The hosts discuss their thoughts on Arby's steak nuggets and food experiences.
“because we were chopping off the ends, and we put them all together, and we slapped it on this thing, and we put a tiny bit of slaw at the end, a little vinegar slaw at the end of it.”
Football and Commercial Reactions
29:14 to 30:22
They share reactions to a commercial while watching football, emphasizing confusion.
“Maybe we should do a food detour at everyone.”
Show all 39 chapters
NBA Power Poll: Teams Analysis
30:22 to 31:38
Discussion on NBA teams including Minnesota, Dallas, Clippers, and Lakers.
“So let's say in March was Minnesota, Dallas, Clippers, Lakers.”
Team Potential and Performance
31:38 to 33:55
Analysis of various NBA teams, including Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, and Miami.
“His body, the way he can move inside the lane.”
Coaching and Player Developments
33:55 to 35:34
Discussion about coaching impacts and player performances in Portland.
“Isn't our own Tate Frazier on record with that?”
Toronto Raptors' Struggles
35:34 to 39:16
The hosts analyze the Toronto Raptors' performance and defensive issues.
“I think they've won every game since the indictment was returned.”
Toronto Raptors' Struggles
41:28 to 41:41
The hosts analyze the Toronto Raptors' performance and defensive issues.
“Cannot be combined with any other offers plus tax where applicable.”
Introducing Peter Schrager
41:41 to 42:00
Peter Schrager joins the podcast for discussions about sports.
“All right, our friend Peter Schrager is here.”
Introduction and NFL Season Highlights
42:00 to 43:19
Hosts discuss their excitement about the NFL season and recent performances.
“Then he gets it, and then he doesn't know if I'm serious or not.”
Analyzing the Atlanta Falcons' Struggles
43:20 to 47:14
A deep dive into the communication issues and performance of the Falcons' offense.
“It was as if they beat the Bills on that Sunday night.”
Discussing Matchups and Betting Advice
47:15 to 48:28
Exploring upcoming NFL matchups and offering betting insights and strategies.
“The thing with Cousins, it's like if you go to a restaurant and they accidentally bought some bad, I don't know, bad Branzino and the whole table got food poisoning.”
Evaluating the Green Bay Packers
48:29 to 54:38
Hosts reflect on the Packers’ performance and their potential as a playoff contender.
“Yeah, Hench has had a lot of Spillane texts.”
Eagles' Offensive Strategy Changes
54:39 to 56:00
Analyzing the Eagles' shift in offensive strategy and its impact on their gameplay.
“But you just know it's going to come into play.”
Analyzing Offensive Strategies
56:00 to 58:00
Discussion about the recent performance of an NFL team and its offensive strategies.
“There's no question that the offense has been better.”
Insights on NFL Quarterbacks
58:00 to 1:01:40
Exploration of quarterback performances and team dynamics in the NFL.
“Just someone break down the sluggo because that's what we do.”
Franchise Decisions and Future Prospects
1:01:40 to 1:10:00
In-depth discussion on franchise decisions regarding quarterbacks and their implications.
“You love the victory against the Chargers, but I don't know if this team can get off the mat again after the last two weeks and what's been going on in that building.”
Micah Parsons' Career Choices
1:10:00 to 1:11:39
Discussion on Micah Parsons' decision to leave the Cowboys and its implications.
“He says, even if Parsons goes on and wins Super Bowls and all this stuff, should have never left the Cowboys.”
Bills vs. Chiefs Game Analysis
1:12:52 to 1:19:00
In-depth analysis of the upcoming Bills vs. Chiefs game and its implications.
“Bills have been a little better in the regular season.”
Texans and Broncos Game Predictions
1:19:01 to 1:24:00
Discussion on the Texans and Broncos game, including team performances and predictions.
“House, what's your favorite game in the slate?”
Analyzing the Texans' Offensive Strategy
1:24:00 to 1:25:18
The hosts discuss the Texans' offensive coordinator and the team's potential for improvement.
“Can I tell you, I had him in the production meeting and it was when they were really low.”
Colts vs. Steelers Preview
1:25:18 to 1:27:10
A detailed examination of the upcoming Colts vs. Steelers matchup and team performances.
“it's going to start clicking as the season goes on.”
Concerns About the Steelers Defense
1:27:10 to 1:29:28
Discussion about the disappointing performance of the Steelers' defense and comparisons to other teams.
“Well, I talked you into the Packers last week.”
Colts Offensive Dominance
1:29:28 to 1:31:40
The hosts analyze the Colts' offensive strengths and their potential against the Steelers.
“And this year, Vrabel, even though he had a pretty big contract, was like, I'm out.”
Bears vs. Bengals Analysis
1:31:40 to 1:33:36
The upcoming Bears vs. Bengals game is discussed, focusing on team strengths and weaknesses.
“The best rushing team, the best passing team, the best...”
Reflecting on Recent Jets and Bengals Game
1:33:36 to 1:35:38
The hosts share insights from the Jets' win over the Bengals and the implications of team performances.
“I knew, obviously, what was going into that game with not only the Jets, what was their own needs, but with the mangled stuff was real.”
Seahawks vs. Washington Preview
1:35:38 to 1:36:56
An overview of the Seahawks versus Washington matchup, highlighting team dynamics and key players.
“last game Seahawks minus three at Washington so this line wasn't going to be on my card it was three when we locked the lines it went from three and a half to three which was a game changer why?”
Washington's Struggles and Future Prospects
1:36:56 to 1:38:01
Discussing the performance issues of Washington and potential outlook for the rest of the season.
“But like Washington is the oldest roster in football.”
Chicago's Redemption Against Washington
1:38:01 to 1:39:50
Discussion about the Chicago Bears' recent victory over Washington and historical context.
“had their season derailed by Washington with that Hail Mary pass.”
The Impact of Player Contracts
1:39:51 to 1:42:26
Exploration of player contracts in the NFL and the implications of holdouts.
“And I'm going to give you three options.”
NFL Betting Picks Recap
1:44:16 to 1:51:49
A recap of NFL betting picks and final thoughts on the week's games.
“Texans minus one and a half at home against the Broncos.”
Discussion on the Palisades Fire Coverage
1:52:00 to 1:52:36
Listeners will learn about the ongoing coverage and implications of the Palisades fire.
“And thanks to the LA Times for an awesome, awesome story today about the negligence and all the bad leadership and all the dumb stuff that happened that led to the Palisades fire.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Incorporated.
0:35Bill Simmons:PNC Bank, National Association Member, FDIC. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday that was super fun. We did Halloween too, because it's Halloween. This is my favorite week of the year. Me, Van Lanthe, and Chris Ryan. A lot of jokes. Halloween 2, once scary, now more of a horror comedy, and we had a lot of laughs. So you're going to check that out. Next week, Monday, we're going to have a celebrity guest, and we're also, I'll tell you the movie, we're doing Truman Show, which is just an awesome, awesome, awesome movie, and had a lot of fun talking about it.
1:20Bill Simmons:So you have the whole weekend to watch The Truman Show. I call it Truman Show, but it is The Truman Show. Anyway, that's all coming up. No Prestige TV anymore for me because task is done. I guess I'm just waiting for the next show. It's not gonna be The Morning Show, I'll tell you that much. Wow, I can't believe The Morning Show. The Morning Show, not a horror, not a comedy. I don't know what it is. I don't know what's going on with that show, but I've watched every episode. I do like The Murdoch Show on Hulu. I've been watching that one. That one's pretty solid. Although I do feel like everybody's worried about AI taking over Hollywood and yet all of these true crime shows start with, there's some sort of murder that happened and the person's either covered in blood or you see a body and then it goes backwards three years.
2:07Bill Simmons:Like don't complain about AI, but then start every true crime series the exact same way. I do like that show though. And I like Jason Clarke. He's in some other show on Apple that seemed pretty interesting too. but we are back into everything is a B plus or worse. World Series, still recovering from game three. I know I talked about that on Tuesday. And apparently the Dodgers are recovering too because they lost game four and game five. And now Toronto has it all in their hands. Could this happen to the Dodgers again where they win the 18 inning game and then it derails them for the rest of the World Series?
2:43Bill Simmons:Riveting, riveting sports weekend ahead. We got football, got the World Series, the NBA is in full swing. Uh, I've already run the, ran a gamut of emotions with the Celtics season. We were 0-3. I was convinced we were going to win 18 games. Now we're 2-3. Josh Minot is stepping up and starting to wonder if we could be a playing team again. Uh, Austin Reeves is an MVP favorite. A lot going on. Very fun. We're going to talk basketball at the very top of the podcast with Joe House, because I'm going to talk about the one team I'm concerned about, and then we're going to do a nine-day power poll. And then old friend Peter Schrager joined us.
3:19Bill Simmons:We did Ringer 107 picks, but we used Schrags to just talk about all the teams as we did the picks. Then we settled on our favorite ones. That's all coming up. First, a break and our friends from ProChamp. This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live your way. So you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast. It's easy to use. And best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently.
3:54Bill Simmons:Guess what I did? Use Fando. Super fun. Download the Fando app or go to fando.com slash BS to get started. Must be 21 plus president select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.
4:40Bill Simmons:All right, Thursday afternoon, Joe House is here. We're going to talk some basketball at the top, and then we're going to do football with our old friend, Peter Schrager. We're going to do some picks with them too. House, we're 500 now on our picks. We clawed back to respectability. I'm super excited about that. Super excited about this NBA season. I sent you a power poll, but before we go through it, because we did it last week, got to get time. Me too. There's an uh-oh team through nine days. And we haven't discussed this. I wanted to see if you had the same uh-oh team. There's no question about it.
5:18We are in lockstep, Bill Simmons. I'm afraid we both took the over for this team. I'm pretty sure we did. It's a thousand percent the New Orleans Pelicans. What the fuck is going on with the New Orleans Pelicans? Oh, you went West Coast, uh-oh.
5:32Bill Simmons:I had an East Coast, uh-oh. Yeah, there's a West Coast, uh-oh, too. Oh, I can't believe we're not in lockstep. No, New Orleans is an uh-oh, too. But, I mean, you know, they're already having injury stuff and all kinds of things. They competed in their first two games and then just got completely blown out. Rolled. Yeah. Well, the good news is they have their first-round pick. Too soon. Listen, we knew with the West, one of those, there was going to be one team that was probably going to be worse than we thought, but we just knew that they're, just by law, there has to be four bad to mediocre teams.
6:08Bill Simmons:You can't have everybody be good. Their over-under, I think, was 30 and a half. We went over with that. I wasn't thinking of that team. I was thinking of the Orlando Magic. Okay, well, sure. I mean, that's everybody's uh-oh. That's the uh-oh du jour is the Orlando Magic. Watching them give up the 136 to Philly. Talked about it with legs a little bit the other day, but then doing the deep dive, reading some stuff, and there's already some stuff with the coach. What's going on here? The defense piece with them, where basically everything goes on Suggs. It's like, oh, you have two scores? well, we're out of options.
6:44Bill Simmons:We only have one guy to guard everybody. I guess Jonathan Isaac's just not a guy anymore. I finally remember the two years ago when he looked like he was like 1965 Bill Russell on defense. His whole career will come down to like he was just 15 % of a guy. Never got to 20 % of a guy even. Just 15 % of a guy. But the nerds started turning on Paolo this week. Including our own Kirk Goldsberry on Zach's pod when he was talking about how he was just concerned with some of the advanced stats and then all week there's been stuff and there's been stuff give you permission to call him a nerd well I mean he's an OG at the Sloan Conference that gives him nerd status I'd like to consider myself a nerd great if you go to Sloan Conference and hang with the nerds you're a nerd but yeah there's some concerning Palo stuff there is some weird defense stuff and then there's that trade where they gave up all their first run picks and went all in a trade that I fully supported.
7:46Bill Simmons:But have you watched them yet? Oh, yes. In fact, I was live tweeting during not tweeting. I'm sorry. Live texting during that Sixers game because it was so eye opening to me on both sides of the ball. On the one hand, I wasn't prepared for the speed that Philadelphia's backcourt plays at and the poise of those two guys. But on the other side of it, you know, I just kept smacking my head. It's like, this can't be just Suggs out on the perimeter. It can't be that. And it can't be the case. And our boy Verno, you put in the thread this morning, validated this. We were texting with him about the Memphis and a whole bunch of things.
8:34Bill Simmons:And then Orlando. validated that it can't be the case that Contavious Caldwell-Pope was the glue for that defense. Like, he was the guy for that Orlando defense. It doesn't make sense because he wasn't there the year before. Yeah. Well, it's early. They're trying to incorporate Bain. The bench looks, you know, I mean, yesterday the bench had better stats just because they were getting blown up by Detroit, but Detroit kind of worked them. The shooting is still, you know, like yesterday they were 12 for 31 from three. That's like a great day for Orlando. There's also every year in the NBA, there's a team that's a younger team on the rise that gets a lot of smoke and just gets pushed up to the next level without having done anything yet.
9:24Bill Simmons:And I think that might've happened here. I'm not counting them out just because I think the East is just super duper weird. But we're going to go over the basketball, the little power pole I did. And one of the things that jumped out to me was there was like five East teams that are all the same team. When you're watching everybody on the TVs, it's like these guys would all, if they were in a tournament, they would all just go four and four against each other. Which I just wasn't expecting Orlando to be in that group, right? Like you watch Orlando and Chicago, Orlando and Detroit or Orlando and Philly, whoever, it just seems like an even matchup.
10:01Bill Simmons:And they were supposed to be like a fringe contender. Yeah, because their win total projection was like 51 games. And that had them at the top of the East behind only the Knicks and the Cavs. And we expressed skepticism properly, I think, on the preview show with Mr. Zach Lowe. I think we all, oh no, we didn't all go under. One of us. I think Zach had a. One of us. Zach had a lock over. I didn't mean to call that out. He did. He did. You're throwing shots at Zach. He's letting me hear to defend himself. That was unintentional. Yeah, Zach went over 50 and a half lock. Oof. I told you, I texted you, I have cashed in one of my locks already.
10:45Bill Simmons:Nine days in the season, I'm cashing in Brooklyn under 19 and a half. I'm just, that is a win. I'm not using pencil. That's a pen. That is one of the worst teams we've had in the league in some time. I asked Leigre the other day whether, you know, I think the worst team other than the 16 Sixers, which went maybe 10 and 72, 11 and 71, something like that, was this Mavericks team from 92 or 93. I think that Brooklyn team has a real chance. But guess who's having a great time? Michael Porter. He's like, this is awesome. ISO! Hand up, clear out. I think Brooklyn suits him. I think he's going to be able to pursue his interests.
11:23Bill Simmons:The best, what was Cam Thomas' game? 40.0 assists. That was my favorite. All right, let's rip through the power pole and then we'll bring in Schrags. So still have OKC as the favorites. I narrowed it down to three contenders and I have three possible contenders. And I want to talk this out because I'm happy moving any of the possible contenders up if you want to conciliar it. But I have Denver and the Knicks and Cleveland as the three contenders. Look, whatever. Cleveland lost to the Celtics last night, but Cleveland doesn't have their team yet. I'm not concerned at all. I'm a little concerned about my 56 and a half over.
12:00Bill Simmons:The lock, if these guys are just not coming back anytime soon. But are you cool? Those three with contenders, obviously. But then the possible contenders, Houston, Golden State, and I put San Antonio. So we have to have San Antonio here until further notice. And I don't have any objection. Totally agree. Right? If we keep getting these games out of Wemby, the impact on the rest of that team, they are very complementary. They are deep. And it is, of course, we're going to hyperbolize because we're only four or five games in to the season. Remember the Washington Wizards with Spencer Dinwiddie and Montrezl Harrell five years ago started off the season eight and two.
12:52and you were congratulating me on that team. The first 10 games, things will happen. We'll see some. They could be directional. They may not be directional. But this San Antonio team, at this point in time, with what they're revealing to us about the possibilities, about the potential, they belong right where you have them. I've been betting on them every game.
13:16Bill Simmons:I've been betting on Milwaukee and San Antonio every game. Great. So San Antonio, they have an MVP candidate. They're second in defensive rating right now, which isn't nothing. They don't have Fox or Sohan yet. So when you think about that, where it's like their only problem is going to be how do they work those guys back and still have minutes for everybody when everybody's playing well, and even guys like Kelton Johnson are playing well. So I think it's a clear contender. Same for Houston, because Houston still has that ass kick gear. And you saw it. Who did they play last night? Toronto. They just put up 139 points on Toronto.
13:55Bill Simmons:But Golden State is the one that I really vacillated on whether they're an actual contender or a possible contender. And here's why I made them a possible contender. I think there's a real chance Adam Silver hates Golden State because I can't think of another explanation when I look at the schedule. This schedule they have, starting tonight, they're playing at Milwaukee, Saturday at Indiana, home Phoenix on Tuesday, at Sacramento, at Denver on a Wednesday, Friday, home Indiana, at OKC on a Tuesday, at San Antonio Wednesday, at San Antonio Friday, at New Orleans Sunday. These are all games that 17 days, they have 10 games, and they're basically all in different locations.
14:42Bill Simmons:That's a fuck you from the NBA schedulers. One of the oldest teams in the league. so that yes and that's why let's i want to see where they are in 11 16 for that new orleans game who's already hurt who's been sitting how fresh are we looking how how impactful is comingo what else am i leaving out no that's it like can we continue to get the continued high performance of moody and pods like this version of moody and pods was supposed to be the thing that was propelling them last year that was going to give them and comingo it's is he's a revelation is he going to be satisfied? He's satisfied right now.
15:21It's a high level. You laughed when I threw the
15:23Bill Simmons:Sean Marion Sean Marion concept. Concept. Still sounds ridiculous. Respectfully. Respectfully. Still sounds ridiculous. Guarding the best guys on the other team. That's a good idea. He's their best athlete. Run the floor, guard the other team's best guy. That's the Sean Marion blueprint. Okay. That's fine. No, we have to wait. You're right, though. It's been good. It's a good version of Golden State. I'm happy to have it. Every year we get more chances of high, effective Steph. I'm in favor of that. So, I mean, just those 10 games, 10 different locations, but they're also at Milwaukee, at Denver, at OKC, and then back-to-back at San Antonio.
16:12Bill Simmons:Those are five of the hardest road games you're going to have all season. So we'll see. That's why, that's the only reason I have them in there. But I like what I'm seeing. Like the chemistry. The Al Horford thing still hurts my feelings. Next category, the sleeper, which I had at San Antonio, but I think they graduated from sleeperdom. So we put Milwaukee in there. And it's just Giannis and shooting. It's what we liked before the year. This is one of our locks. I think this was the only one other than Sacramento's under that the three of us agreed on as an over. It was 42 and a half. Giannis has just been best player on the court every game he's played so far.
16:48Bill Simmons:The shooting is there. They have these sneaky dudes, man. I've liked Ryan Rollins. I liked him before the season. I like him more now. Did you have him? Feels like it. I think you did. I think you had Ryan Rollins. Pretty sure we did. I think he passed through the DC vortex. These guys, yep. Cole Anthony, Green. Cole Anthony. Kuzma was actually playing defense the other night on Towns. He doesn't have a choice. He wants minutes. Yeah. Like, it took him a whole, like, post-trade. He's like, what is this? This is, these guys are trying, this Milwaukee team, it took him that long to acclimate, right?
17:31If we're being, if we want to be Kuzma truthers, I don't know.
17:34Bill Simmons:If you're being super friendly to Kuzma, you could say it took him a long time to acclimate. Took a long time to acclimate. I continue to take this team seriously. I think I had them as a five seed. I thought they could climb as high as three if they got a healthy Yana season and some other luck. They've had some guys out already, but I just like the team. I like how it's constructed, and it makes sense to me when I watch it. So I have them eighth. Next group, there's four teams. Title is Let's See in March. Minnesota, Dallas, Clippers, Lakers. and I saw Minnesota in person on Friday. Moving the Lakers up, and I'll explain why in a second, moved Minnesota down from the contenders just because of the defense.
18:20Bill Simmons:Now, Edwards hasn't, he's missed the last two, but Minnesota's 25th in defensive rating right now? It's just impossible to take Anthony Edwards off the floor and get any kind of a read. I mean, they used all of their energy. Should they be 25th in defense ever? but like who you know they they play Mike Conley significant minutes and he's still a good contributor but he like they still he knows how to play he's got a good basketball IQ they don't trust Dillingham they won't play him they can't get anything out of Terrence Shannon like they this was the concern for the downside case when we're sitting and going through them at 49 and a half wins.
19:00It's the toughest one. Yeah, like the bench needs to get a little bit better. DiVincenzo's been fine. I don't think it's the bench though.
19:09Bill Simmons:I think it's that guard spot. Well, they don't have... They can't figure out the guard spot. It was supposed to be Dillingham at this point, giving them 20 minutes. Yeah. And also, Anthony Edwards isn't playing. But it's fine to just say, okay, we're going to... Let's let Anthony Edwards come back. They came all the way back against the Lakers team that was missing seven guys the other night. I mean, they should have won. I went to the game Friday, which I talked about the other day. And it looked like Minnesota was going to win by 30. And then all of a sudden their defense went sideways. Marcus Smart started diving for balls.
19:47Bill Simmons:Luka and Reeves just started doing things. And all of a sudden Minnesota was down 15. And it was one of those where you're watching the game going, wait, how are they down? What happened here? Why are they this far behind? I've been here the whole time, and it seemed like they were in the game. But the defense, I don't know. It's a red flag. We'll see. That's why I said we'll see in March. Dallas, same thing with their weird team. Davis is already now, what is it? We hit some weird tendonitis. Who knows? They could be way further down next time we do this. Clippers, I don't know. We might lose some money on Dallas.
20:23We might lose some money on them.
20:25Bill Simmons:Or there could be the you ain't there. committee would have to be show up in Dallas. Clippers.
20:35Let me ask you a question. Am I concerned? Yes. Do you think that any of this indictment stuff, because it is apparent, it's revealing itself that Ty Lue is a pretty central figure in quite a bit of this? That Damon Jones, Chauncey Billups, and Ty Lue? Just because he was friends with them. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know.
20:58Bill Simmons:He was in some places at some times. Well, he was involved in two different things because that happened and then the whole aspiration thing. So two different things that just are pulling your attention away from trying to win basketball games. It shouldn't matter for the Clippers because that is one of the deepest smartest teams in the league. When you have shit like that, it's never good. There's no upside to be like, oh, we have this really weird ongoing story that's just happening outside the basketball court, much less if you have two of them. There's just no, there's no positive out of that.
21:35Bill Simmons:It's just stuff that's pulling your attention away from what's important. So I moved the Lakers up. And the only reason I moved them up is because Reeves is playing so well. And like I saw it in person on Friday, kind of took over the game for a couple of stretches. And this was a game where Luke had 48. And then now that Luca went out, he's been a one-man show. That shot that he won the game with. Awesome. Was just, they knew he was getting the ball. That was like a fucking A-plus lister kind of shot. So I don't know what to make of this team now because I don't really like their four through 12 at all.
22:12Bill Simmons:I'm not sure they're going to be able to play defense. But with Luca and with Reeves, and then you're just going to move LeBron back into this and say, hey, LeBron, just do LeBron stuff and set guys up and get some stats. It's not nothing. I don't know what to make of it. What do you make of it? Well, you'll get in trouble if you ask this, so I can ask it. I mean. Oh, say it.
22:38You sending the buyout contract? They're already out there. I mean, you already see the trades. Like, you know, the trade, we didn't have to wait for the maestro. We have to wait for you to be coming up with LeBron trades. The internet is speaking. The internet has spoken. What is the internet saying? I'm not hearing the voices. There's already a trade. What was your favorite one? LeBron and Bronny back to Cleveland.
Read the full transcript
23:04Bill Simmons:Cleveland can't trade for LeBron. I went over this a month ago. They're not allowed to make trades. I don't know. It doesn't have to be right away. DeAndre Hunter was involved. I can't remember. There was picks involved. There was a couple other things. I said, well, that's interesting. I can't figure out a trade destination. I tried. I'll do it again. I'll do it tonight, late at night when I can't sleep. I'll give it another Tesserad. I actually sent you a task. Yeah. If you spent six hours, could you come up with a conceivable Paul George trade? Forget about Embiid. He's off the table. Is there a single Paul George trade?
23:44Bill Simmons:Because I have Sixers fans in my life. And once we trade Paul George, it's like, where? He's got three years left on his deal. Where are you trading him? The teams that make sense are veteran teams that could use a veteran guy that will be able to assimilate him and take where they are in terms of the playoff profile and elevate themselves. That's the logic. That's the thesis. That's why a team's, to me, like a Golden State, like a Miami. Those are the teams where Paul George... So Miami was the only one. I gave that one to Rozier and Rozier's expiring two years left for Paul George who says no faster.
24:22I did that. I did that on my own as well. I agree with you. Um, that Rozier trade that, that contract is a wonderful asset magically out of nowhere. Okay. Miami gets this incredible. Yeah. Asset. Um, it, I think Paul George could make sense in Miami. I mean, why is Miami saying no? Because of the third year of that contract?
24:49Bill Simmons:Yeah, because you're thinking especially if you have Bam and you're paying Hero, could you be in play for the Giannis types two years from now? Do you want to tie up your cap? And is Paul George demonstrably better than Andrew Wiggins? Is he going to be that much of an upside that it's worth tying up your cap for a third year? Fair question. It's a fair question. It's why we didn't picks. We didn't have the answer. We didn't reach a conclusion. Here's what Philly has to do. Philly has to bring back Paul George and hope he plays well for like a month. And then he goes right on the dark web eBay.
25:24Bill Simmons:Just like, yo, Paul George, any interest? I would say out loud, I don't even know that they need for him to play well for a month. That's just to validate that he has working four limbs that work, ten digits on his fingers that work. Would you take him on the Wizards? No. If they gave you a pick or any sort of asset to enjoy along with it? An appetizer? It seems like they're going to be like a low 40 win team. So what's that pick to you? They don't strike me as a lottery team right now. Well, we're proving our point. They're not going to be able to trade Paul George. Probably not. Have you seen the ad for RB Steak Tips?
26:07It's so funny. I am literally having this conversation in a couple text threads right now. Shout out to my homeboy. Why am I in the text threads?
26:16Bill Simmons:How are you in an Arby's thread that I'm not in? That's our place. I didn't start it. It came to me. As you would expect. You being in a Papageno's thread and me not being involved. No, as you would expect, I am a magnet for Arby's threads. The thread found me. I didn't go hunting for the thread. I understand. But there was a review in the Washington Post from my homie Tim Carman. I haven't had a chance to read the review. Somebody put it in front of me. did he review the Arby's steak tips he ate them and reviewed them and I'm not going to spoil it for anybody but here's the thing they're called nuggets they're not tips so this is part of the thing I've had a really hard time with this because my affinity for Arby's is so well established so well known I thought the branding of this was a tiny bit off because they call them nuggets now nuggets that's a word that we have an association with steak nuggets Are they breaded?
27:11What does that mean? If you called them tips or you called them, you try to do something like the burnt ends that Kansas City has made famous. They look like burnt ends. And if what you're doing is conveying to people like here is protein in a cup. Here is some animal-based protein in a fast food vehicle. But it tastes like barbecue. Protein in a cup.
27:39Bill Simmons:It's the worst porn search of 2025. This is my problem, though. The cup isn't appetizing. And it doesn't convey a barbecue vibe. You don't eat barbecue. It's not like you get Chick-fil-A nuggets. You get the box. You're like, oh, you got Chick-fil-A nuggets. Now I want one. That little sort of envelope-shaped kind of thing where it might look like, yeah, they're all sort of nestled together because we were chopping off the ends, and we put them all together, and we slapped it on this thing, and we put a tiny bit of slaw at the end, a little vinegar slaw at the end of it. okay, all right, now my mind's working.
28:10What they're showing on the commercial and the way they're delivering it in this cup and they're calling it nuggets, just had a hard time getting my head around it, I have to tell you. It's a great point.
28:21Bill Simmons:Like if you had veal nuggets or I'm trying to think, any meat, Branzino nuggets, whatever it is, my head immediately goes with nugget to, you took a fish, a chicken, steak, whatever it is, you put it, you air fried it, you grilled it, whatever you did. And it's going to have an outside with like a breadcrumb type thing. And that's how I'm going to eat it. And it's going to be soft inside. Yeah. I'm getting hungry talking about it. I want to try these things now. And I have put set aside, I bookmarked Tim Carman's review of the, of, of the, of the steak nuggets. Uh, and I'm, I'm eager to get his cause he, when he likes stuff, I tend to like it too.
29:02So I'm, I'm eager to get this. Wow, he's like your palate buddy. My muse, my palate muse, yes. Interesting. Here in the DMV, here in the D.C. area.
29:14Bill Simmons:I'm glad we took that detour. Maybe we should do a food detour at everyone. And so I was watching football with some people on Sunday and that commercial came up and I just started laughing and I was like, I just think a house when I see Arby's steak nuggets on a giant TV. Did anybody say, oh my God, that looks appetizing. oh my God, we have to rush out and try these? No, it's more confusion. It's more confusion. That's what I'm getting at. But there's a way to solve this. I mean, I'm going to eat them. Maybe I'll do an Instagram on it. I'll get some this weekend. How about next Thursday? We should just eat them.
29:49That's great. This is not sponsored content, by the way. We're getting zero for Marvy's. Better than Instagram.
29:54Bill Simmons:You can do it right here on the Bill Simmons Podcast. The funniest was anytime we've driven to Vegas, that one Vegas stop at like the two hour mark. And they've got like the 20 different fast food places. And you just like, you see the Arby's and it's like, you train me like a dog. You train me. You train me to understand. I know where it is. I know when it's coming. My body starts responding to it. Next category. So let's say in March was Minnesota, Dallas, Clippers, Lakers. We're about to do a little drop off here. and this next category is called Sorry I Can't Tell You Guys Apart. Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago.
30:35Bill Simmons:I just think if any of these two teams played each other in the play-in tournament, any result is possible or in like the Emirates NBA Cup, whatever you want. The interesting thing to me is that Miami and Chicago played themselves up into this group, right? Miami, I think, is better than I thought they were going to be. and Chicago just seems really comfortable and a big part of it is Bezelis, obviously, but they've also been playing the same kind of style now for a couple years. They're well coached and I think those five teams are like right near each other. Which one of those five do you think is the best?
31:12Because I have an answer to this.
31:17Bill Simmons:I think Detroit's probably the safest bet for best. Okay. I think Philly has the highest upside because of what's happening with Maxie. I must be square because obviously I thought Detroit was the right answer. I can't, I mean. But the Maxi piece, I was talking to Chris Ryan because I saw him after the comeback win against your Wizards. The Maxi thing is like, if this is just who he is now, this is like we're now in Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, like area territory, you know, which just changes their ceiling. absolutely positively cannot rule out that this is just where he is this might just he might just be a 28 points a game scorer now he's effing dominant yeah he is unstoppable he's got seems like the fastest guy in the league now other than when ja decides to dial it up you know what i mean yes like from just coast to coast like he's just like a blur got a ton of that um sga movement also.
32:13His body, the way he can move inside the lane.
32:19Bill Simmons:Atlanta is the one that I think could fall down from this group if they don't. Trey's already banged up. The defense just hasn't been there, even though I like some of their defensive guys. They have too many players I like. We'll see. The next one is the I Smell Smoke. That's Orlando. We covered them. One of the subplots I didn't want to happen this year is for Paolo to become the Trevor Lawrence of the NBA. So let's hope that doesn't happen. That's very disrespectful to Paolo. That's very disrespectful. Water Treaders is our next one. Boston and Memphis. Boston stumbled into something really interesting with this Josh Minot who didn't really play the first two games.
33:02Bill Simmons:And I think if he had played opening night the way they're using him now, I think they actually would have won because there was this moment where they could have brought him in in crunch time when Tate had fouled out and they didn't. But I just think he has it. Like he's a real rotation guy and he gives rebounding and defense and a little size. And I don't, when I say this, don't just be careful. You be careful. He's doing a reasonable Tatum imitation. Okay, okay. Of the rebounding defense piece. Okay. Not the scoring, but the ability to actually like protect you a little on the boards and guard people.
33:40Bill Simmons:He did a really good job on Evan Moby last night. I was genuinely excited. And then Memphis, we were texting this morning, this Cedric Coward is a revelation. There was a good sentiment out there coming in that he was going to be a hidden gem. I think our own Tate Frazier. He's unhidden. Isn't our own Tate Frazier on record with that? No, he's just a gem. I don't even think it's hidden. All you have to do is watch a Grizzlies game. It's like, who's that guy guarding everyone on the other team and making open threes? so I'll admit defeat on the Bain trade I'll do it right now they trade Bain for all those picks it's like why are you guys doing this and their attitude was we feel like we can replace Bain well they've already replaced him because Coward's going to get all those Bain minutes and he's a better defender than Bain was not as good of a shooter yet but so great trade for them I love watching Coward this draft is a 10 out of 10 so far they still Memphis I need to see the defense every night I just don't.
34:37I mean, they've had some stinkers. They've had some absolute stinkers on defense already.
34:44Bill Simmons:Water treaders only because they can, as Verno always points out, when John Triple J actually play, they're pretty good. They need to get their front court back. They're still dramatically undersized. Can they tread water until those guys come back? Next category is wait, where's our coach? That's Portland. Portland's just legitimately frisky. professional basketball team. Drew has been really involved. It's been good to see him doing old school Drew stuff every night. And even though the scoop piece, they've been able to kind of patch it together. He's like running offense for them. I was really interested in that game they played last night actually with him.
35:26Bill Simmons:And just like, I don't know. Portland's not bad. And if they were in the East, they'd be maybe in that conversation with some of those other East teams we mentioned. No, they're talented. It does remain to be seen. I think they've won every game since the indictment was returned. Did they lose one in there? I think, well, they are three and two. They've won two in a row. Interesting team. I like Klingon, too. When you think about that draft, I think Klingon went after Dillingham. I think if we redo that draft, he goes higher. Next category, thank God for the World Series. That's Toronto. So we taped the last time they were 1-0, and they killed Atlanta, and we were like, oh, my God, maybe we were wrong about Toronto.
36:13Bill Simmons:Well, they haven't won since. Well, no, I mean, I'm going to lose a bet. I gave them out as a lock at, like, over 38.5 or 39.5. I can't remember what it was. I thought for sure they were going to be in the low 40s. This team still makes no sense. It's amazing. All these years, we've been going on preview shows, talking during the course of the season. Make it make sense. And still, now look, last night they were missing Pirtle and Houston is huge. So Sangoon came within one assist, two rebounds of a double-double last night. And I only know that because I lost a parlay. I had Houston and Sangoon getting a double-double without Pirtle.
36:59That was a good bet. That was a good bet. Plus 135, that was a goddamn good bet. But I lost because Sengun couldn't get one more assist or two more rebounds.
37:09Bill Simmons:It's not his fault. You did great, Sengun. Don't listen to us. Maybe I should stop calling him Sengun. Where do you think Toronto is in defensive rating after nine days? Near the very bottom. I can tell you with certainty. They're 29th. I watched. They are way down there. You know the other issue with them? it's a team that makes sense for 41, 42 minutes. But if we're in a sword fight at the end of the game and it's like, all right, that team has Tyrese Maxey, we're going to run a pick and roll quickly. Or we're going to try to do the thing where everyone stands around and watch Brandon Ingram.
37:47Bill Simmons:They have all these options that are okay, but all these other teams they're playing have like, oh, they have Giannis. And the flip side to just that same point is last four minute defense. Yeah. Hit the stop. It's fine to say we're a team that's going to get out in transition. We're going to force turnovers. Okay, that's fine for 42, 43 minutes. Now it's the last five minutes of the game. Nobody's running. You're in the half court. Stop somebody. I'm not ruling them out, but it doesn't look good early. Next category, League Pass All-Stars, Charlotte, fourth in scoring, just doing their job. The only criticism I have with Charlotte, Bader Miller's already hurt, but my only criticism is don't get blown out.
38:29Bill Simmons:Let me enjoy you for more than an hour before you're down 25. Like, I want to see you guys go up and down. We had a fun thing. Like, who's going to play center? It's Kalkbrenner. Yeah, he's fine. He's fine. That's the answer. Oh, and newsflash, Conk Nipple's good right away. Yeah, immediately. Only told people that since June. Next category, Shopping for Tanks, Indiana. This is the year from hell already. And then last ones. Why are we here? Phoenix, Sacramento, Utah, Washington. Let's just tank, oh wait, we can't, New Orleans. And then dumping for Darren, the horrendous Brooklyn Nets, who we can talk about with Peter Schrager in one second.
39:09Bill Simmons:He's in the waiting room. Yeah. Fresh off arguing with Dan Orlovsky on NFL Live. We're going to take a break. Peter Schrager, Joe Hasnacks. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel turning up the heat every Sunday with Power Hour, every Sunday from 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern. FanDuel is giving you a profit boost to use on live bets during the most intense stretch of the NFL slate. This is when games flip, underdogs rally, parlays hit. That's pretty fun. I think there's going to be a couple down to the wire games this weekend. We jumped on a bunch of them in Ringer 107.
39:46Bill Simmons:I feel like even though we took the Bears in Ringer 107, Bears-Bengals feels like that's going to be right down to the wire. Anyway, it's called Power Hour for a reason. and it happens every Sunday only on FanDuel. Head to fanduel.com slash BS to get started. You must be 21 plus president select states or 18 plus in president DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt-in required bonus issued as non-drawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chag.
40:23Bill Simmons:Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. I love pizza. At Little Caesars, the pizzas are always large, so you'll always get more bite for less buck on game day. I'm a simple pizza order for football, especially when I have friends over. You got to get a cheese, you got to get a pepperoni, and then maybe get one wacky one with like, I don't know, mushroom, peppers, maybe pepperoni or sausage, but don't get too wacky. This is one of my passions in life. Don't be the person that orders the crazy pizza that then everybody leaves and there's five slices left.
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41:36Bill Simmons:Prices may vary. Delivery available from participating locations with online orders only. Copyright 2025 LCE Incorporated. All right, our friend Peter Schrager is here. He's going to do Ringer 107 picks with us and talk football and basketball starts. Schrager gets a little antsy that he hasn't gotten an invite when we get in October. It's like, wait, I'm right here. Then it's like, then I make the joke about, well, you're McAfee's guy now. Then he gets it, and then he doesn't know if I'm serious or not. We had this whole dance we do. And then it always ends in the right place with you here on the BS Podcast.
42:08Bill Simmons:It's good to see you. You never want to be in the Bill Simmons blacklist or on the cold seat. And I just like to throw a couple of sprinkles in here because eight weeks have gone by and not a single invite. We text all the time, but no invite. And then you said Joe House was on and I got very excited. Let's go. You've been on during the season, right? I think I did preseason where I told you that the Dolphins were going to win the Super Bowl and the Lions were going to be terrible. So I think we have time to redeem ourselves here. Jesus. my apologies for not having you on another time during the season but I'm glad you're here plus you get to be here with House Love it House has a hard hour and eight minutes from now so we're going to zoom through Ringer 107 possibilities in a second but what's been the dominant doing these shows on ESPN what's been the number one go-to story in October?
43:01Bill Simmons:Cowboys defense baby Let's break it down That's what it is? Break it down What is going wrong? What is Matt Eberflus doing wrong? Should they have traded Parsons? Now that they have made this bad trade, what do they do? Should they go get Hendrickson? A lot of Cowboys defense talk. And just this week, we shifted a little bit. A lot of Drake Maybill. A lot of Drake Maybill. Oh my God. God damn it. It was as if they beat the Bills on that Sunday night. And then Monday morning, we did a lot of Drake May. Then it went away for a little bit. But then this week, it's been a lot of Drake May over at the Worldwide Leader.
43:36and I'm loaded to bear. Like, I'm ready to go. I got so many notes. I'm like, good, my wheelhouse. I only could say so many things about, you know, overshone return for the Dallas Cowboys defense.
43:47Bill Simmons:Well, House had last year's darling for the shows, Jaden Daniels. Just segment after segment about how special he was. And now Drake May just said, hey, Jaden, have a seat over there. I'll be taking all of these segments now. For the time being. Tough matchup this week, though, with Atlanta. It's going to be a nice little test. They have a good secondary. There's a lot of momentum now at the Pats. Could they be the one seed? It's just, it's a lot of trap elements. I know House is studying. We are not putting the Pats in Ringer 107. I'm just telling you that. Really? Not this week. Stay away? I want to ask if I have permission to do this little segment with Shregs because I think this is the first time we've been on together.
44:27Second time at most. We definitely shared food. Yeah, we've hung. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. This is the second time. We did one like maybe like COVID, like 2020 going through like coach hirings. I remember any podcast I did for two years during COVID.
44:42Bill Simmons:So I would believe that. The segment I want to do is what the fuck is going on with blank? Okay. The question, since we're now on this new, this new England Atlanta thing, what the fuck is going on with the communication issues with the Atlanta offense? Isn't it weird? I don't understand it. What's going on with them? Okay, so I did their Monday night game two weeks ago when they beat the Buffalo Bills. And I was the sideline reporter and they opened the roof up. And we get a production meeting with the Atlanta Falcons. And I sit with Raheem Morris, who can light up a room. And he's like, Schrags, I coached Cooper Cup, his triple crown season.
45:25I coached Julio Jones, our Super Bowl year in Atlanta. I was the wide receivers coach. I can go back and I coached RG3 when he had that rookie season. and I was on that staff, he goes, this guy Bijan is not only in that conversation, he might be the best of all. And he's like, our entire team runs through him. Our entire offense runs through him. He is the heart and soul of our team. The defense respects him. They've scored 10 points since that 250-yard game in two games in a row. And it's so confusing. And Zach Robinson's the offensive coordinator. And he looked like he was dialed in. They moved him down to the sidelines.
46:00Everything was right in that Buffalo game. They, Pennix look good. You had guys out for the bills.
46:06Bill Simmons:The suspended guys weren't back yet. They did a whole bunch of stuff. You start wondering, like, what the heck? And then they lost, you know, some offensive linemen along the way. And I know people tune out when you start talking offensive line as the reason because you're looking for a bigger, you know, that Raheem Morris can't get these guys ready to play and that they, you know, to lose to Miami is a fireable offense and all this. Trust me, Falcons are as frustrated as anyone. This game here, for them to kind of be the upset underdog trap game, it's so out of this world if you were there in that building two weeks ago where it looked like this was a Super Bowl contender.
46:41So, House, I am with you. Two head-scratching efforts, 10 points in back-to-back games. I know Cousins looked 100 years old last week. Even so, to lose to the Dolphins that way, where the Dolphins run the ball 37 times down their throats, Like that does not add up with what I saw and what they did against the Washington commanders a couple of weeks earlier before that. So Atlanta, one of the great frustrations around the league because everyone thought they made that turn after that Monday night game. And that was a national coming out party for all those young players. And they've been just the pits ever since no pun intended.
47:13He's been actually pretty good.
47:14Bill Simmons:Well, you know, you know what they did house. They landed themselves on the DNB list. They sure did. To do not bet list. Do not bet. They're just a fucking stay away. They killed us last week. They killed us. The thing with Cousins, it's like if you go to a restaurant and they accidentally bought some bad, I don't know, bad Branzino and the whole table got food poisoning. Do you blame the restaurant or the Branzino? I guess is the question. Cousins was so bad. They had no chance really from the get-go. They're a stay away to me. Here's the thing. The Pat's run D has been ridiculous. us no running back has had more than 50 yards yeah what but bijon and uh on wheel routes and screen passes against these pats linebackers is a nightmare this is what my pats fan friends and i are talking about like if they get bijon in space pits in space the one problem with the pat the pats are 28th in defensive dboa and their big issue is like when their linebackers are in space They can stop the run.
48:18Bill Simmons:They can push the line. They have a really good secondary. But that middle of the field, I think it's... That's what I'm worried about. One of my favorite things you've had on a podcast in the last several weeks was Monday. You're like, everyone's raving about Spillane. 14, visor, badass. Hench is texting. You can't stand him in coverage. No. Yeah, Hench has had a lot of Spillane texts. It's tough because there's just times when you get the... You just see the play and you just see in the TV there's two people and a lot of grass. You're like, oh, no. Oh, my God. Anyway, I have... That game is in the no-thank-you pile house.
48:57Bill Simmons:Yes, we're in agreement. I'll just tell you the four stay-aways unless we're doing parlays. Chargers, minus nine-and-a-half. Titans, you didn't have that one house, right? Why not? Titans in a game getting, you know, less than 10? Yeah. What's the thesis for the Titans being competitive? It's more about the Chargers and the Jekyll and Hyde when they're offensive line. We know that Joe Alda's playing this week. Am I right about that, Shregs? That's the word. Joe Alda's playing football this week. They don't lose when he plays. And Becton. Becton's playing too, it seems. Possibly. Quentin Johnson.
49:36Quentin had a zero last week. Didn't do much. I don't know. Was he on your fantasy team? I got guillotined with Quentin Johnson Zero.
49:45Bill Simmons:And in our guillotine league, I picked him up. I have him now. From my game. I took him right off your Zero. My Zero. Chopped my head off and now you have him. By the way, did you happen to see the interview with Kamari Vidal last week after the game? Like, I love this because Justin Herbert's not going to give you much. Like, let's try Kamari Vidal. Not exactly going to be working on the ringer anytime either. It's just hilarious. I'm like, Kamari Vidal's getting the interview. Usually it's like the Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford. Kamari Vidal had that opportunity, but it wasn't one of many words.
50:16Bill Simmons:I'll say that. I wouldn't say Herbert is Mr. Dynamo either. No. Did you sit near him at that Dodgers game? How close were you? Well, so he was at the... I was at a Laker game that he was at and a Dodger game that he was at. And neither night was he breaking down the Titans defense. I want to put the Chargers in a money line faraway situation. Okay, fine, fine, fine. Rams, Saints, it's minus 14.5. It's just stupid. That's a flash sale price. That line should be 11.5. I don't know, dude. Rams coming off a buy where they're feeling really good about themselves. Saints in full sale, fire sale mode.
50:55All the veterans must go. That might be a 20-point, 30-point game, dude. I'm kind of fine with selling on... It's Mother Shucker's debut. You're afraid of the Mother Shucker?
51:07Bill Simmons:that that's like how do you get excited for that game if you're the Rams that said those games those 14 and a half sorry me every one of those games matters they need to just go like it matters they get it the Colts did that to the Titans the next two weeks they're at San Francisco and then playing Seattle okay that's the season let's go let's take a 10 point lead and just start handing the ball off and let's go home and let's get ready for San Francisco. I don't know. That one worries me. So I had that one in the pile of the stay away. And then the last one was Packers, Panthers. Packers minus 13 and a half at home against the Panthers.
51:46Bill Simmons:Give us, where do you stand with the Packers these days right now, Peter Schrager? I think that second half that they had against the Pittsburgh Steelers was as good as any half a team has had all season. And their defense is so good. And they've had a couple lapses. There's like two moments. The Cowboys' second half was bizarre, and then they gave up a couple big plays against the Browns in that weird loss. But other than that, they have been lights out. And that defense, coached by Jeff Halfley, who, by the way, is going to be one of these guys that everyone's talking about in head coaching conversations in the next couple of months, is only complemented by an offense that is so dynamic with all of these different receivers and tight ends that you don't really have a way to stop them if they're feeling it.
52:30He completes 20 straight passes and we do all that. But to who he's throwing to, it could be Matthew Golden. It could be Kraft. It could be Heath. It could be all these guys. They have so many different players that it's really hard to defend. And whereas the Eagles, it's so much friction and there's so much outside noise. I'm pretty plugged in with these Packers guys and the players and the coaches. It is like kumbaya up there right now. They're all on the same path. Micah is like the lighting up the room, like a complete joy. Anything you might have heard about his personality, he is like house.
53:06He is just pure, pure happiness. And he brings it the best out of everybody. So Packers to me right now, if you're asking me week nine, like a team I wouldn't want to face, it's those guys.
53:17Bill Simmons:It's funny. They're so loaded at receiver. I waved Golden in the guillotine league, not because I don't like him, but because in guillotine, you just have to have guaranteed points, right? You just got to make sure. I actually ironically waved to him for Quentin Johnson. But the Packers have so many receivers. I don't even know anybody, even Kraft, who's awesome, who looks like baby Gronk sometimes. Even he might have a game where he has one catch for 11 yards. They have all these different ways they can go. And they have another tight end. They have a lot of different guys. And last week, they got Christian Watson back.
53:52and he's a really good deep threat. And Romeo Dobbs. So it goes on and on. The question is, the Lions game is in week 13. I'm already circling that. Can they keep it where they're a game up or they're tied with the Lions and then can they sweep the Lions? Because home field is going to matter. Interestingly enough, everybody's team that they're picking apart, the Eagles go there next week for a Monday night football game. I think we'll learn a lot about both teams. Philly on the road in Green Bay with Green Bay probably getting all the hype train going into that.
54:23Bill Simmons:Well, and how? So you know that the tie is going to matter somehow with these seeds. It's just the law of averages. Like right now, they're the one seed because they're 5-1-1 and Phillies 6-2. But I think, you know, if they win this week, but who could figure it out? But you just know it's going to come into play. When a good team has a tie, it's always like, well, that could be one or maybe four. So you win on that Philly team? Where do you stand on a betting standpoint? these days with them? I've come around a little bit. Now, the Giants were lively against them. And I really feel like that bad whistle that the Giants caught was undeserved.
55:02I'd be interested in hearing what the scuttlebutt inside the NFL for, you know, around that because they all deserve better. That was a tough whistle the Giants got. But this whole thing, everybody keeps talking about it. I think, you know, Peter Schrager, I'm so happy he had time to break away from a full day. He hosted First Take this morning for Christ's sake. Did you host First Take this morning? I did. I did.
55:27Bill Simmons:Oh, my God. And then you did NFL Live? I did NFL Live. So we're getting like a gamey kind of beat. This is like a 15 inning. You're like Will Smith catching the 16th inning for the Dodgers. It's a tremendous job. But everybody's talking about this idea. I'm like Michael Jordan. I don't believe in load management. Just cut up this interview 16 times over the course of the season. Let's go. He wants the people to see him. Goddamn right. Everybody loves this idea of the Eagles under center as opposed to out of shotgun. That Jalen Hurts under center, it creates this uncertainty. There's no question that the offense has been better.
56:06And the ironic thing is that it's because the kid can't snap a shotgun comfortably. Isn't that the explanation for it, Shregs? They stumbled into it. They never were playing anything under the center to start the season. They were struggling. Now, the last two weeks against the best pass defense in the league two weeks ago, Jalen Hurts threw for 330 yards. Then last week against the Giants, they ran for 250 yards. That's what scares you if you're an opposing team. Like, oh, okay, wait, they actually can do both of these things and they're both working. Offensive line has been an issue for them, which is such an interesting change from years past with Jeff Stoutland in that unit.
56:42But let's see if they can get healthy and let's see if they can keep it going. But yes, the shotgun versus non-shotgun, they were exclusively a shotgun team. And now all of a sudden it's like, wait, maybe we're better this way. It's finally fair to wonder why it took to week eight or week nine to figure that out.
56:56Bill Simmons:Schraggs, do you feel like Hertz has been struggling against the triple umbrella Bernays Robert? You're hilarious. One of my things I'm going to start doing on the pod is I'm just going to make up defenses that just sound fancy. I got caught on GetUp last Friday because I tried making an analogy. and like you have like, they give you like 15 seconds. And I said with the AJ Brown stuff, I'm like, all right. So this is the equivalent of that couple that doesn't, you know, that's always fighting. And instead of them getting separated, they decide, screw it. Let's get pregnant, right? Let's have a kid.
57:33And that's an analogy, you know, House, you know that analogy. People talk all the time. It could be, of course. Totally support it. And that means, let's have a kid. It means let's double down. I mean, we get that. Harry Douglas is next to me. Bart Scott's next to me. The second I said a man getting pregnant, they're like, what? What? And I'm like, oh, God, oh, God. Like, this is, there's not going to be a, okay, I just put it out there. There's no selling going on. We've talked about this bill. You got to sell me, guys. You got to laugh. So then I'm like, oh, no, you're right. You're right. Go back to the triple robber, the high safety talk that we just broke down.
58:01Bill Simmons:The triple robber. And that fell flat too. And then I'm like, okay, screw it. Just someone break down the sluggo because that's what we do. Break down the sluggo. And Greeny, to his credit, it's like, they actually threw a sluggo this week. I'm like, I know, I know. They threw the darn sluggo. But like, yes, I get, I'm trying to fit in my little analogies on these shows and my little jokes and my little quips. It'll get there. We got it. But in the meantime, we're going to break down the double high robber Sam scissor route. And we're just going to have to talk that way for, for the, for the crowd of high school coaches that are watching.
58:31You know, we got to go there.
58:32Bill Simmons:House wants food involved in some of these defenses. Like he wants like somebody to have a Bernays Blitz or the RB steak, RB steak. That's savory, creamy. Yes. Savory should be in there. Who's the most savory linebacker? Robert Spillane. Yeah, Spillane. Savory Spillane. I have three Pats Falcons in the no thank yous. I have three more games that I don't think should be in the let's actually seriously talk about this for Ringer 107. And either of you, hit the button. Wait, Bill, can I interrupt real quick? Yeah. How about everybody going, oh, the NBA, NBC and Amazon, they're teaching us basketball.
59:17This is what we really want. And oh, we don't want inside the NBA being critical. It's similar to what I was talking about. Let's give this a couple of weeks of everyone being coached like they're a high school basketball. I'll take, slow down with how bad inside the NBA is. Guess what? When they're on ESPN, when they're on TV, they're pretty damn good. And I can get the basketball history lesson maybe from Tech's winners later on in my life too. I'm good.
59:40Bill Simmons:Yeah, I still enjoy inside the NBA. This is a good moment. I don't know. Did I text you, Shregs? That three, that three, that bucket, that three, when you were, why were you taking threes on camera? McAfee invited me down to do the show down there in Indianapolis for when I was talking about the Knicks. Nice form. Guess what? High school basketball player. Good player. Love it. Love shooting threes. Shregs could have played three and three with us, House. I already made it. He could have spaced the floor for our pick and roll. We already made a joke about protein cup, but I'm going to go for it.
1:00:10I'm going to double down right now. The stroke was so... The stroke was velvety. It was velvet.
1:00:16Bill Simmons:Made you want to put some... The protein in the cup. That's years and years. Pure, baby. I was watching. I was dressed. That was Drazen Petrovic. That was Mark Price. Those were my guys. All those great names. Those were the guys I used to watch. Yes. 49ers Giants, 49ers favored by two and a half in Jersey. Yeah. The San Francisco defense was on the field for 41 minutes and 18 seconds last week against Houston. that can't block. The Giants just lose major guys that their fans love every three weeks. Giants defense is 30th against the rush and 26 yards per play. To me, it's a stay away unless you guys feel different.
1:00:56You've been following the Dexter Lawrence, Carl Banks controversy in New York this week? He got a little saucy with him, right? Carl Banks is the in-house guy, usually pretty positive. Out of nowhere, just takes a very contrarian view on Dexter Lawrence, who has been... No one's been criticizing his play. He's a very highly paid defensive tackle, gets a lot of love reputationally. He's saying this guy isn't playing. He should be dominating. He's playing an eighth-string center last week against the Eagles, and he's getting mauled. Dexter Lawrence fights back. Giants right now with the Scadaboo injury, with the neighbor's injury, with all the different issues they've had.
1:01:37And then you take in the Broncos' loss and the way that thing went down. It has been a very deflating few weeks. They've won their last two home games. They did it in heroic fashion. We love the Eagles game. You love the victory against the Chargers, but I don't know if this team can get off the mat again after the last two weeks and what's been going on in that building. So this is crazy because I think that this is the season, the game of the season for San Francisco. They cannot lose this football game and make the playoffs. I had a mark for that reason. Yes.
1:02:09Bill Simmons:The problem is we don't know who's playing for them and their defense was on the field for 41 minutes last week. I can't name five of their defensive starters. Yeah, I think it's a stay away, but I feel like on Sunday I'm going to bet on the Niners. Yeah. I'm going to be like, oh, he's playing? That's the best way to do it. I just want to say I'm mildly afraid of Tyrone Tracy if I have a Niners bet in this game. And I have him on multiple fantasy teams this week. I picked him up. Lions-Vikings. This was a flash sale price. Lions minus eight and a half over the Vikings. Feels like it should probably be like six because it's a kitchen sink game for the Vikes.
1:02:44Bill Simmons:Cashman and Van Ginkle are back. Yep. They can play the Bernays robber with those guys. The Bernays robber. We love that. Bernays Robert, they might even be able to play the savory steak nuggets blitz. Isaiah Rogers can go the peppercorn blitz if we need it. Right. We can do this. And yet McCarthy, tell us what do you, how is the most in on this story of any story of that JJ McCarthy may be terrible? I think it's the most fascinating story in football this week. Honestly, like I could do, I could do a full hour with you both on this because the way it's stacking up, as much as Giants fans are like, oh man, Daniel Jones and Saquon, they're just better when they leave us.
1:03:18think about what was in the room last year. Sam Darnold's five and two and could be the MVP if the Seahawks keep winning. Daniel Jones is seven and one is basically the MVP right now. Both those guys were in the quarterback's room. They let them both walk. They could have franchised Darnold. They didn't. And then Aaron Rodgers had made overtures, I'm told, that there was interest in Aaron Rodgers going to Minnesota and they were like, we're good. That's a tough one because that's... That would have been a nice one-year band-aid. Who knows? they bring in your boy, Sam Howell. They get him in a draft.
1:03:53They trade for him in the draft. And then after a couple months, they're like, we're actually good. We're going to sign Carson Wentz in August. And he's going to be the guy. All on the thought that we're all good. House's faces are great. We're all good because we got JJ. We're all good and we're all in. Now, they traded up in a draft with him for two years ago. And House, I will give you this nugget. The commanders thought they were going to get Sam Darnold last offseason in March. And then Jaden Daniels was going to be the rookie with him. At the last second, Kevin O 'Connell offers Sam Darnold more money,$10 million.
1:04:29They go to the Vikings and he's going to basically play that role for J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy goes down with the injury. Everything happens from there. They traded up to get McCarthy. And I feel like it was like, we drafted this guy. We went all in on this guy. We're not going to abandon him now. but a 14 and two season before those two losses at the end, that's a tough one to swallow if you're a Vikings fan. And now the weight of the world is on McCarthy because you add that on with both of your quarterbacks being in the same draft class with Bo Nix being in that draft class. And it's like, there's two separate things on his shoulders.
1:05:01There's, Oh my gosh, I've got to be the savior of this franchise. And we let all this quarterback talent out the door. And Oh, by the way, all my contemporaries, all my peers are fucking awesome on their teams. well the thing that befuddles me is what do you go into that locker room and tell all those badass motherfuckers that were on a team that went 14-3 last year what do you tell Van Ginkle what do you tell Cashman what do you tell Justin Jefferson
1:05:30Bill Simmons:what do you tell Justin Jefferson what do you tell TJ Hawkinson people are saying TJ Hawkinson's having it down here oh is he because JJ fucking McCarthy and Carson Wentz the corpse of Carson Wentz. God bless him. He shouldn't be on an NFL football field. He's going up the field and he's crying. He's crying on the sideline. I mean, I have empathy for the man. I don't wish bad things upon him. He shouldn't be playing professional football. That's on the franchise. The franchise did this. What do you tell all those guys that tasted the playoffs last year that had every reasonable expectation to run this back?
1:06:06How do you keep that room safe? Because I think they're going to get waxed this week. I think they're going to get annihilated. They might. Look, we have a great luxury to look back in hindsight and do this now. Those eight days, that final Sunday night game against the Lions, and then that treacherous Monday night game in Arizona against the Rams, Darnold looked awful. He did. It was almost like 14 wins was great, and your comeback win in Seattle was huge, your comeback win in Chicago was huge, and all those amazing throws you made all season. when we needed you most, you weren't there. And I think that's what they put their head on the pillow with.
1:06:42Like, all right, we drafted this guy. When it mattered most, this guy wasn't able... But there's a money ball piece too, though.
1:06:48Bill Simmons:It would have been at least$30 million a year to keep going. Unless you franchise him and you eat that$40 million for one year and then say, okay, JJ waits another season. But they use that money to get a couple defensive linemen. They tried to spread that money around. It's more a thing of like, if you're the owner of the Vikings... And you moved up to trade for J.J. McCarthy and you just got hurt. And then a year passes. And they're like, hey, here's what we're thinking of doing. Maybe we'll franchise tag Darnold. If I'm the owner, I'm like, what about J.J. McCarthy? We traded up to draft him.
1:07:21Bill Simmons:Are you telling me he can't play? Like Jaden Daniels played last year. Bo Nix played last year. Like, why wouldn't we play that guy? The part I don't understand is why they let Daniel Jones out of the building, who they obviously liked when they got him. Yeah. And he would have been a cheaper version of Darnold. Why didn't they just do that and try to keep him? They had interest. Yeah, and they wanted to bring him back. The Colts offered about the same money, if not more, but basically told him, you have a real shot at winning this job. And he went to Indianapolis and he left. But Minnesota was very interested in retaining him.
1:07:52They would have loved to have him in the room, but he took Indianapolis' offer instead. So what? Give him 20. I don't know. To me, it's amazing that they're at this spot where they're elevating John Wolford because they might need him. And this is... People like the backup. Bosmer. People love the backup. And you've heard all this talk about him.
1:08:11Bill Simmons:If he gets announced as a starter, the line might not even move house. It sounds like Schrags has more McCarthy information than he's letting on. You don't sound optimistic about McCarthy. Here's the other part of it. He's still 22 years old. So it's like you don't want to bail on it yet. It's just, I love the sliding doors aspect of it. Of like what could have been. It's another non-denial denial by Shrigs. I feel like he's getting a lot of McCarthy stuff. This guy's a disaster. This isn't a Josh Rosen situation, is it? How could it possibly be? He hasn't played any professional football games.
1:08:48We have no idea. We have no idea. But he sat in the coach's office all season last season. Every Thursday we have a meeting.
1:08:56Bill Simmons:They did a meeting. They ran through the schedule like he wasn't hurt. All right, so it sounds like we're putting the Lions in some sort of pile. The good pile. And then Cowboys-Cardinals is the other one. Cowboys minus two and a half Cardinals. I just, I don't want any part of this game. Why not? Huh? Why? Who do you like in this game? I don't know. I could see Kyler running for about 150 and throwing for 350. Yeah, how's the night I'm going to be on Kyler? We don't have a lot of that. The Falcons on the road. We don't have a lot of Kyler at all. Dominate in Dallas. And you're supposed to take Dallas this week because they're back home.
1:09:29The offense, you know, there's nothing wrong with that offense. I'm not taking them again. Yeah, Shadi was pretty fire. I loved it. Sticking up the ass, whatever he said. Like, I don't care about offensive stats. I mean, first time I'd seen him ever talk like that in 25 years. I loved it. But Monday Night Football, I feel like spotlight game. Maybe Kyle. I either wouldn't get it in Arizona or I wouldn't bet at all on this one. That defense is so bad. I spoke to Michael Irvin this week. Had a very interesting take. I want to hear both of your thoughts on this. I love this take. It's one I hadn't heard yet.
1:10:01There's a million Micah Parsons sticks. Irv had a different one. He says, even if Parsons goes on and wins Super Bowls and all this stuff, should have never left the Cowboys. I'm like, go on. He's like, the money would have eventually been the same. Jerry was a million dollars off, whatever. You don't pay taxes in Texas. You pay taxes in Wisconsin. And the podcast that Micah had, if you're a Dallas Cowboy, is infinitely more valuable than your Green Bay Packers podcast. Oh, and by the way, Micah lives in Texas. His mom lives in Texas. And the value of being a cowboy for life is so much different than being a cowboy for the first three years of your career and then moving on and doing something else.
1:10:43I'm like, I have heard a thousand people talk about Micah Parsons. I have not heard this version because to everyone's naked eye, it's like, oh, Parsons got out of Dallas and is riding high and Green Bay was where it was. but like Irv was like, no, no, I've never paid for a meal in Dallas and I go everywhere and I'm royalty for the rest of my life. It's the greatest thing in the world. He's like, Parsons can't do that anymore. I'm like, fascinating take, Irv. I love it. It is fascinating. You're doing a kind of financial modeling because if he wins Defensive Player of the Year, would he have ever won Defensive Player of the Year in Dallas?
1:11:14Like, how do you measure those two trajectories? How do you put them next to each other? It's very interesting. Bill, your thoughts.
1:11:21Bill Simmons:Michael Irv never had to pay for anything. In Dallas. And that's a long list of a variety of things. You'll be the first to tell him. If I'm Michael Parsons, I'm pretty happy in Green Bay Planet. An awesome team versus a deranged franchise owned by a really old guy who just does crazy stuff. We're going to take a break and then I got to talk about my five favorite games. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. On the court, the pitch, the track, even the pool. Professional athletes show extraordinary physical flexibility. For us normal people, we've got PayPal's flexible monthly payment plans.
1:11:54Bill Simmons:Pay nothing at checkout, then enjoy a flexible monthly payment plan that works for you with no sign up or late fees. And it's available millions of stores. Pay monthly with PayPal. Subject to approval, pay monthly consumer loans made by WebBank. Available through PayPal Inc. NMLS 910457. Learn more at paypal.com slash pay monthly. This episode is brought to you by ServiceNow. Look, I already have my dream job. I run the ringer, argue with Chris Ryan, AKCR. But even dream jobs have not so dreamy parts. You know, the work that slows you down never seems to go away. That's where ServiceNow's AI specialists come in.
1:12:33Bill Simmons:They're like digital teammates who actually do the job start to finish. No handoffs, no homework. That means more time for the work that actually matters, which for me is talking about whether the 86 Celtics can beat the 96 Bulls, which they could. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com. Bills Chiefs. Hello, friends. Bills Chiefs, yet again. Bills have been a little better in the regular season. Chiefs have obviously dominated the playoffs. There's some Buffalo, some slight injury stuff. They lost that Oliver. They just can't keep that defensive line altogether. KC played Monday.
1:13:10Bill Simmons:That has to be factored in. Buffalo's run defense, 31st. but I don't really like any of the Chiefs running backs. Rahomes is probably their most dangerous runner. Buffalo first running attack. Casey 11th against that. And it just feels like a really tight game. Bills getting one and a half at home house, which Bills has a home dog. There's some good stats with this. Can I interest you in moving that Bills line up a little bit into the four and a half, five and a half range? Would that entice you? I don't want to bet on this game. I would prefer to just watch it and enjoy it because there are to me two very plausible competing game scripts phenomena.
1:13:56And I can't choose which one I think is going to be the one. In my mind's eye, I can see this Chiefs offense scoring 41 points. No problem. I can see them firing on all cylinders. I don't like the Pacheco injury, but it kind of feels like they always have another guy coming back. You know, that's like, he's only getting a dozen touches or so a game anyway. Can I interrupt you for a second? Please, please, please.
1:14:24Bill Simmons:We're putting this game in ringer 107. This is a playoff game. I like that right away. Put the fucking chest hair in your chest. Have a drink of mad men scotch. We're trying to win. Like you tell me what you think the prevailing outcome is going to be. It's a playoff game. Shrigs, Josh Allen at home. Yeah, but Josh Allen at home might not be enough because I watched the Ravens put up 40 points on that team in Buffalo. I watched Drake May go into that building and win in Buffalo. Look, the Ed Oliver thing is huge. He's the best player on their defense. He's been a game wrecker all season. Now you're asking this rookie Walker to step up and play that role, which is asking a lot.
1:15:06They need Daquan Jones to step up when he gets back. And like Bosa and Rousseau have to be better than they've even been. The Bills are in a real tough spot here. They lost their best defensive player and they've got a long season ahead of them. And I'll add, they have zero cap space. So whereas your Patriots have the most cap space in the league, the next$48.5 million house, the next four days, they can play around. They can do models. They can figure out, they can make phone calls. The Bills, they can't do crap. Last year, they brought in Amari Cooper and he helped down the stretch. I don't see...
1:15:39The Bills can't make a move. They've got like a million dollars of wiggle room. There's nothing they can do. So the injury bug has hit them way too early. But that said, Josh Allen, you've been knocking on the door for all these years. You're right there. This is the... You're the MVP. This is your moment. Go and win your fifth game against Mahomes in the regular season and go control that division, which you should not have to worry about the Patriots in 2025. This should have been a 2027 problem that they're dealing with.
1:16:07Bill Simmons:Yeah, you forgot about one thing. You forgot about Drake May. Drake. I'm with you for most of that. I think Buffalo can overpower the Chiefs and run the ball down their throats. And when they're not running the ball down their throats, use Josh Allen to continue to run the ball down their throats. That would be, as a Chiefs fan, that would be my fear. That we're just getting pushed backwards and we don't have the ball a lot. And it's just one of those weird games. this game matter more for? I know it's week nine. I think Buffalo. I do too. Oh, that's surprising. I think this is a must for Buffalo.
1:16:41You don't think the Chiefs want the one seed? The Chiefs can't lose any more games. The Chiefs are in a bind with the one seed for sure, and the Broncos and Chargers are going to keep winning. So it's a good question. It's not just a... To me, Buffalo psychologically, if you lose another one, it's at home and the Chiefs again. It's a lot. I feel like
1:17:02Bill Simmons:for Buffalo, this threat of the Patriots is a real threat because the schedule that the Patriots have combined with the fact they've already won in Buffalo that if you lose this Chiefs game and you fall back who knows what the past guy they might finish like I don't know what the record's gonna be I don't even as you know I feel like this team has holes they might go like 12 and 5 or 13 and 4 right so you have that plus you have the Chiefs whole, that whole dynamic, whatever that is, the cloud of the Chiefs. Whereas the Chiefs are always fine. They could lose any game. It's like, we're fine. We'll be back next week.
1:17:42Bill Simmons:Like, I just don't think, I just don't see the Chiefs being like, we got to get this. They treat every game the same. Every game they have is like a Monday night game or some division rival game. Which is the most underrated value, like thing of this whole run ever. I mean, whether it's in Brazil or it's on on Black Friday or it's Christmas Day. It's like the Chiefs have the most unorthodox schedule. The NFL just shoves them in these primetime loan windows and they never complain and they just go out there and they play football. And it's like, it never catches up with them. It seems like they're always ready to go, which is why, to me, it's almost like Buffalo needs this one.
1:18:15And I'm going to side with you. You mentioned one thing, Shregs. Buffalo's schedule is weirdly hard. It got harder because teams got good that we didn't expect. It was supposed to be a cakewalk. Go through their schedule.
1:18:26Bill Simmons:Well, yeah, they have Bucs week 11, back-to-back at Texans on a Thursday, and then at the Steelers the next week. They're playing at the Pats in week 15, and then at the Browns week 16, who at least is going to be able to throw defense on them. Then week 17, the Eagles. Not easy. They already have two losses. To me, like, they're, what do you think, Kyle? It's 12-5? That sounds right to me, 12-5. This probably swings it between 13 and 4, 12 and 5. So I don't know. I feel like they need the game. All right. Well, we'll table that one for a second. House, what's your favorite game in the slate? I have two.
1:19:06I absolutely adore Detroit. I just think the idea of getting J.J. McCarthy into Detroit is phenomenal. Anything less than 10 is attractive to me. And then I also like Houston. and I know that people are going to say I keep trying to fade Denver and all Denver does is jam it right up my rear end, especially Bo Nix. Keep doubting Bo Nix. I got a lot of that in the timeline last week, but I do like the idea of this. Well, you did encourage it.
1:19:37Bill Simmons:You did say if Bo Nix jams it in my butt, then so good. Like you did like kind of throw that out. He did it against the Eagles. 18 points in the fourth quarter against the Eagles. Went on the road, won. That was an impressive win. Can I empty the notebook on the Broncos a little bit? Let's hear it. So they beat the Giants in this historic fashion and they're celebrating all this shit. Sean Payton, Monday morning, has it cut up from his assistant. The last six biggest comebacks in regular season history, the following week, that team lost. So Sean Payton puts together a sizzle reel for Monday morning for these guys of those teams being on the other end of the other team taking a knee in the game afterwards and he put music behind it.
1:20:21And basically a Monday morning when everyone is riding high over this Giants game is like, no time for that. History tells us there is a natural letdown in this and they go on to kick the shit out of the Dallas Cowboys. And like, that's kind of the pace they're at where it's, there is no, this is a sprint for them. There is no Broncos like, ah, well, that was a good win. Two back-to-back wins at home. So to me, I know the Texans are favored in this game. I don't, I don't quite understand. I know Sertan is a huge player, defensive player of the year. But to me, you're not going to get a complacent Denver Broncos this week.
1:20:55Bill Simmons:My answer might surprise you on this game. This is my favorite game on the board. Oh. I love the Houston Texans. Let's go! As do I. I heard your whole case, Shregs. You didn't like my story of cinematographer Sean Payton? No, it was good. And Payton's done a good job. We've been in on Denver this year. They're 6-2. Houston's defense, I think, really might be the best defense in the league. Their top five basically rush, pass, yards per play, name it. Denver's played five crap defenses. Tennessee, Cincinnati, the Giants, Dallas, and the Jets, plus Indy, which I wouldn't call the 85 Bears. And Sertan being out is massive.
1:21:41Bill Simmons:It's huge. But who are you scared of? I would say that's the top five most important defensive player to be out. Which receiver are you scared of from the Texans? Are you losing sleep over Xavier Hutchinson? Nico's back. I know, but I don't think... All right, that's fine. Nico, I'll give you. Nico's a top 10 receiver in this league. He's been out. Here's what I think. I think this game is just ugly both ways. Because the Texans won't really be able to block. But I don't think Denver's going to move the ball against this Houston defense. Houston defense is awesome. Bowne X makes me really nervous.
1:22:12Yeah. They lost by two scores to Seattle. They also turned Seattle over four times and their defense was absolutely unblockable. That's right, you did that game. They just kept getting the ball back. It was crazy. And no one watched because it was two in the morning Eastern time. But Houston's defense dominated the Seahawks that day. You didn't see it in the box score, but they had four turnovers. They sacked Darnold and Willie Anderson and Hunter were unblockable. So I'm with you on that defense. It's very good. And in the back end, Stingley and Lasseter are as good a combo in the backfield as anyone.
1:22:42However, I just don't know. I don't know if they've got the offense and the offensive line to keep off that amazing Denver defense. They are good. Even with South Sertan, they are good. They get to the quarterback. They lead the NFL in sacks. They're really... They could dominate that offensive line in Houston.
1:22:57Bill Simmons:Well, if Houston pulls this off, they would be 4-4. And then a little Jaguars-Titans combo. They'd have a treat after that. But then it gets... They go Bills at Colts at Chiefs. Three in a row, which is pretty brutal. So they're kind of in must-win zone. Whereas I look at Denver like, all right, if they lose this game, they're playing the Raiders on Thursday four days later. They'll win by 20 and they'll be fine. It's so funny. We've been aligned on some of these. We don't talk. House, I don't talk about the ones. This was the one that jumped out to me. You both like the Texans. We do. I felt like this should be a two and a half or a three because of their defense at home.
1:23:40Bill Simmons:I still have Bo Nix questions. I still watch him. I know that he heats up and I know that there's games where he's finished with stats. I think he misses a lot of throws. He missed a couple last week. He tried throwing a no look pass and it got intercepted last week. Piece that we haven't talked about that I do like. Is CJ Stroud back? I mean, we get to do it that way. He's bad. If he's back, if it's a bad defense. Can I tell you, I had him in the production meeting and it was when they were really low. And it was before that Seattle game. He had so much, so much swag in this meeting. Like he hears it all.
1:24:11I think he knows that people are present and he's like, don't worry. Like I'm good. And I, I came away. I wasn't Stroud. I don't know. I don't know him that well. I came away walking away like, okay, not a vote, not a huge vocal guy, not an in your face guy, but clearly the leader of this team and has a lot of confidence, even though their offensive line is not even close to what it was two years ago when he had that breakout season. Yeah. Well they added a sixth guy and it looked like that might've helped the offense, the running game a little bit. So if we just get a little variety in that offense, Their offensive coordinator is interesting.
1:24:41So they had Bobby Sloick, who was tremendous. And then last year down the stretch, didn't gel as well.
1:24:47Bill Simmons:I still have a Bobby Sloick's going to be a head coach t-shirt from 2023. I don't know if you want it, I'll send it to you. He had about 30 interviews. They hired Nick Kaley, who I think you'll like this guy, Bill. Eight years with the Patriots under Belichick. So he comes from that world. And then himself is like, I need to diversify this. Goes and works for McVay for two years. So you've got the Belichick influence and the McVay influence. What a tree. And they bring him in. And it was a little rocky at first, but super talented, young, young offensive coordinator where you get the feeling like he's going to, it's going to start clicking as the season goes on.
1:25:22Bill Simmons:One other thing with the Texans, and I mentioned this a couple weeks ago, I genuinely like Woody Marks. I think he's good. Good. And he's good out of the backfield too. And they might have hit on Noel at least with those rookie receivers. Two Iowa State rookie wide receivers. He's the one that's always open or seems like he can get open. And then Collins coming back. That's another one. He, you know, no Sertan. Maybe he makes a big play. I like the Texans. Three more quickly. Colts Steelers, Colts minus three in Pittsburgh and Colts outdoors. Steelers as a home dog. And there's just a slew of insane Tomlin home dog stats that we don't need to just read through.
1:26:02Bill Simmons:They're going to have the field goal edge yet again. You're always like minus six when you're playing in Pittsburgh with field goals. But Pittsburgh's defense, 32nd against the pass. And the Colts are just a juggernaut ripping through everything. We haven't talked about the Colts yet, Trey. Do you believe? Are you in? How could I not? And the only issue is I haven't seen them play like primetime or a big game or with a lot of pressure on them. They always feel like they're like the Scott Hansen, like constant break in on red zone, like team. I haven't watched, you know, a matchup with them with, you know, all the spotlight on them.
1:26:34I feel like even though this isn't that game, there's a lot of attention this week, like Steelers on the road. And a lot of people now doing this, like let's poke a hole in it. Let's see that said, like Daniel Jones, the stats are insane. I think he's like number one rated quarterback regularly, number one rated quarterback under pressure. And then Jonathan Taylor is doing what he's doing. And then Quentin Nelson's probably the best player on the entire team. Just absolutely dominating at the offensive guard spot. The question is, I don't know how they're doing this on defense, and they are. They're stopping everyone and they're getting turnovers with not a lot of names on their team.
1:27:08Bill Simmons:We know how they're doing it. They're playing shitty teams. That's another way to look at it. They played Tennessee twice. That kind of helps. They played Miami week one. They played Las Vegas. Which way are you leaning on this, BS? Because... Uh-oh. Oh, boy. I'm nervous for the Colts. I'm nervous about it for them here. Well, I talked you into the Packers last week. I was happy I loved it I loved it when you did it it was a great zag I endorsed it I was thrilled to have it couple things on the Steelers defense Triggs Triggs is like when he hosted first take it feels like 38 hours ago now we've got a hard out so I gotta empty it quick here no well House can leave and we can still go I have another 25 minutes I'm good I want steak nuggets so I felt this way when the Pats played the Steelers and really dominated them the last three quarters and turned the ball over five times and just left all this offense over and over move the ball on them.
1:28:11Bill Simmons:Green Bay last week, by the time we get to the second half, it was like whatever they wanted, they were just getting. And Indianapolis has a better offense than both of those teams. So why wouldn't they just get everything they want in this game? What has the Steelers defense shown us? Fucking Joe Flacco. Not Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco. Yeah. Joe Flacco. I know. Joe Flacco was lighting them up. Who can't light up the Steelers? They're 32nd. Chase was targeted 23 times in that game, which is the ultimate insult to a defensive backfield. We will tell you exactly what we're going to do, and we know you can't stop it.
1:28:45He had 16 catches, and then to see what Jordan Love did 20 in a row. It's maybe the most disappointing unit in all of football, this Steelers defense, because you go through the list of names. It's not only TJ Watt. It's Cameron Hayward. And then you go to Patrick Queen, and then you get to the defensive backfield and it's like, it's Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay. This is not a young team. This is not a cheap team. This is not a bunch.
1:29:06Bill Simmons:It's a team you would have wanted in 2019 is the problem. Yeah, yeah. Or a defense that you would have wanted. And it's a Tomlin coach team, which at the very least, you knew they would at least show up everywhere. This is tough to pick them in any game with that defense being such a sieve. Well, they traded for Kyle Duggar this week from the Patriots, who was just an atrocity in coverage last year. He basically was a linebacker playing safety. And this year, Vrabel, even though he had a pretty big contract, was like, I'm out. I'm going to play this Craig Woodson over you and kind of buried him.
1:29:39Bill Simmons:The Staylor's traded for him this week, and I think he's going to play. Yeah, because Sean Elliott is on the IR, another veteran that they brought back that might not have his best football in front of him. So that's where I would say it's home. You got the terrible towels. You got the sticks, Renegade. I get all that. I don't know if that can cover up what they have on defense, which as much as we cry about the Cowboys' defense, the Steelers' defense is way more disappointing because we actually expected them to be a strength of the team. In-house, Packers, what was that? Would that line end up?
1:30:10Bill Simmons:Two and a half. On Sunday night? Two and a half. Finally, it went down to two and a half. So Colts are favored by three. So that means the market is saying the Colts are better than the Steelers, which I mean, than the Packers, which I don't think is necessarily true. I just think after that Sunday night game, it's like the big people are like, oh, the Steelers really are bad on defense. And I don't, other than that, the Metcalf plays and occasionally Warren will get like an eight. I don't really know what the Steelers are good at. The only thing. I just don't think they're that good. They don't even try to go deep.
1:30:42No. And Rodgers just.
1:30:44Bill Simmons:The more tape you get on them, the more you're like, oh, they do these four things. The only thing you can point to is the Colts defense is super susceptible to tight ends. They're one of the worst. defenses against tight ends. How about giant, tall, big tight ends? How are they against those guys? Pittsburgh loves to... Pittsburgh has five tight ends, it seems like. Well, they run that tight end Parmesan, Robber Zip offense. Parmesan. Robber. The Colts is going to be one of my picks, only because I think getting it at three, I think sounds great. It's your pick, I just want to say. I can't make a case for the Steelers other than just the voodoo that we watch.
1:31:23That's all.
1:31:23Bill Simmons:It's the fucking typical Pittsburgh at home bullshit where they do this. Field goal hits it upright. That's the case. I have no case to make. Running back's running down the field and his knee hits the ball and it bounces up in the air and the Steelers recover. But we thought that was going to happen last week and it never happened. Well, you look at the numbers for the Colts offense and it's astronomical. The best rushing team, the best passing team, the best... Alec Pierce leaves the league in receiving yards per catch. It's, you know, it's they're a nightmare. They can do everything. They can throw deep because they're short.
1:31:56They got Warren. Rookie who's the best tight end in football. So it's like what the hell?
1:32:00Bill Simmons:An amazing offensive line with a Hall of Famer. I honestly think this line is a miracle. I think this line should be minus four. I think they might win by 20. Daniel Jones is an RPO savant. Like this is the mode, the best function. I know. I watched it on ESPN today. You get to watch a lot of it. You were there. Alright, two more. just quickly Bears-Bengals, Bears minus, it's set it at minus two and a half in Cincinnati. Since he's defense, the thing I look at, I don't know if I've ever seen a defense that's bottom three in all the categories. Like there's not one where they're like 28th. It's just there's a three in front of every number.
1:32:38Bill Simmons:Pass, run, first down efficiency, third day. Like it's across the board. And then they can't run the ball either. The 31st and run. They don't try to run the ball. They don't even get the ball to chase down. Flacco is like Chinese food in the fridge. It's fun for like two days, but two weeks gets a little gamey. And I think the Bears could be the good, bad team. They win this game. They're 4-3 right now. They win this game. They put the Giants next week. They play Minnesota at Minnesota and then Pittsburgh. As crazy as this sounds, they could be 8-3. And I don't even think the Bears are that good.
1:33:14Bill Simmons:No. Please talk me out of this because I want to bet on Caleb Williams. Well, it's hard to roll with the bench. Like, Trey Hendrickson, limited in practice. Obviously, he's on the trade block, potentially. Logan Wilson might want out. He's not practicing. And then Joe Flacco shows up on the injury report with a shoulder injury. So he might be going back to Jake Browning if Flacco can't go. So that loss to the Jets, I mean, I got emotional. I knew, obviously, what was going into that game with not only the Jets, what was their own needs, but with the mangled stuff was real. Like that was a wild morning to wake up to that news.
1:33:50And the Jets rallied around that, but that is an inexcusable loss at home of, of that many points to the Jets with Justin Fields and no Garrett Wilson and no sauce Gardner. I can't pick you in good faith after that, that performance. And I'll add this. We always kill the coaches for time management, Aaron Glenn, who has been the joke of New York for his time management bill. Did you see what he did? Down eight. I love it. How it's like a David Chang. Perfect. Down eight. Down eight. They go for two to cut it to six. Everyone's freaking out. What are you doing? We're doing it. And then they won in regulation.
1:34:28They did the analytics the right way, which everyone preaches and no coaches ever actually do. He did it when they were down two touchdowns and then one touchdown. They got the two-point conversion on both of them. And it actually worked out. They won in regulation. And it's like, Aaron Glenn, claps to you.
1:34:43Bill Simmons:It's one of those things when you bet on the other team and the team does it and gets it and they're down six, you just automatically think you're going to lose. It's like, oh my God, I was up 14. Now I'm going to lose. I had the Jets on the money line in that game. Did you really? Before the Mangold or after the Mangold passing news? Because to me, that totally shifted my entire approach to this game. I will confess that I didn't factor in the Mangold aspect of it. No, I hadn't. House just loves betting on bad QBs at home. Well, it was very hard. It was a tough card last week, finding underdogs that I felt like could win outright.
1:35:15But the Bengals, the Jets was like, okay, these teams are not that far apart. That was really it. See, Bengals were coming off an all-time win on the Steelers. A long 10-day break. Love it. Jets on top. How did you even think? Give me the Jets. That's an incredible bet. All the guys missing, yes. Nobody's going to know who the hell any of these Jets are. Let me have it. The Bengals are bad. last game
1:35:41Bill Simmons:Seahawks minus three at Washington so this line wasn't going to be on my card it was three when we locked the lines it went from three and a half to three which was a game changer why? Seattle is I don't know what happened because Jaden Daniels might play McLaurin was out why would anyone even think why wouldn't it go the other direction why wouldn't it be Seattle by four or four and a half three is charming First in DVOA, which is notable. Third in yards per play offensively. First against the run, second against yards per play with defense. Washington's defense house, I would describe it much like you, old and slow.
1:36:21Bill Simmons:That's not nice. That's mean. Well, much like me too. We're old. I can guard my man. I can't really guard him. He goes right by me. Your bottom 10 in every category. I'm trying to think what the case for Washington is without McLaurin, and it comes down to it's a kitchen sink game. It is. And Darnold on the road. And that's, is there any other case? I have no case. They have a long break here. The last time they played, I was there. It feels like it was a month ago. They beat the Texans on Monday night. I was at Monday night, Kansas City, Washington. They started off okay. But like Washington is the oldest roster in football.
1:36:59And last year they put these pieces in and it worked. Like all of those guys were perfect for the position group rooms. this year, all of those guys, they look like the oldest team in football. And I got to say the two best addition, like Tunzel and Debo are actually playing well this year. Those guys are really good. And Wild Bill in the backfield is really good. They've got guys who are playing well. It's just, they don't have that same juice. They don't have that same mojo. And just watching them last week, I can't in good faith say that just because Jaden's back, they're suddenly going to get that thing back.
1:37:30It feels like last year, they were way ahead of schedule. Everything went their way. and this year we're starting to see a regression and it might be, hey, they actually have the oldest roster in football and it's starting to show.
1:37:42Bill Simmons:What are your thoughts, House? It's your favorite team. I've been on this show, every show that anybody put me on saying that I think this Washington team, the ceiling for them is six wins. They could not lose the Chicago game. That was the season. We will look back and it's funny, Chicago last year had their season derailed by Washington with that Hail Mary pass. Washington went all the way to the NFC Championship game. This season, Washington hosts Chicago. Chicago comes in and gets the win right at the end off of a turnover by Jaden Daniels with three minutes left. He can't catch the wet bone.
1:38:19Yep. We did the hindsight house. I got a question. We did it with J.J. McCarthy. Would you pay Terry McLaurin now after seeing what we've got this season? Would you pay him that huge contract he got? We know team leader, all that stuff. but he's paid as if he's one of the best wide receivers in the league. Yeah, they had to. I never had any issue with it. I mean, it's like we're trying to establish an identity, a new culture. You have to remember we're fighting 25 years of a devil. We're trying to get Satan. Be gone, Satan. Be gone, Satan. One of the ways you do that is to pay a guy who's a stand-up guy who straddled both of the regimes, right, and he is a team leader for a team that made it to the NFC Championship game.
1:38:58It is a contract that is a reward, not a prospective this guy's going to deliver on it. That's what it is. That's what it is. It's a reward. So thank you. I mean, I personally say thank you to Terry McLaurin. Okay. Shrigs, has a holdout
1:39:11Bill Simmons:ever worked where the guy came back and was awesome? No. Has it ever happened in the history of football? No. I don't have any. Or basketball or any sport? Emmitt Smith. Legler brought this up on Tuesday. I was like, that's such a good point. Emmitt. It feels like we're 0 for a million. Emmitt was, they were 0-2. Emmitt took him to the brink and then he came back and was the best running back in football in I guess 93 when he did that. That's the last one I remember. But for all the millions of August Good Morning Football shows where we're detailing Jadavid and Clowney's holdout, what's the latest?
1:39:41I don't remember any of these guys ever coming out and being what they were supposed to be before they got the money.
1:39:46Bill Simmons:Le 'Veon Bell. All right. So we're going to figure out a rigor 107 here. It's the whole season, Le 'Veon. That's crazy. Yeah, that was tough. We're putting the Bills in a parlay. And I'm going to give you three options. Bills plus four and a half with the Chargers money line against Tennessee. That's minus 118. Chargers pack money line. Both have to win with the bills plus six and a half. That's minus 119. Packers would have to be Carolina at home. Chargers would have to be Tennessee. That's option two. Option number three, Chargers money line, Lions money line. Bills plus seven and a half against...
1:40:32Bill Simmons:I knew House would like that one. Finally. With some RB's steak tips on top of it. Big nuggets. If they call them tips, I think they'd be flying off the shelf. Here's one of the many things I like. So we get to bet against JJ McCarthy or whoever's playing for Minnesota. We get that chart. We get to bet against Tennessee again. And then Bills plus seven and a half, Jeff Schrags gives us cheap touchdown potential, gives us the Chiefs can't run the clock out because their running backs are Kareem Hunt and that other guy and Mahomes trying to run up. So it just kind of keeps the Bills hanging around, which I think would be fun to root for.
1:41:10Bill Simmons:House is so happy. You're going to do this bet. I can feel it. Well, you're giving me a heart attack. I need, you finally got to a number with the Bills where I'm comfortable because to me, it's a seven point swing on either side. I can count in seven either way. But so give me the seven and a half. Four and a half doesn't do anything for me. Six and a half doesn't get you there. Seven and a half, now we're there. You like that. Chargers, Lions, Money Lions, Bills plus seven and a half. Good to go. Great. Texans minus one and a half against Denver. Schrags didn't love this one, but House and I, this is our favorite bet.
1:41:41Bill Simmons:I don't. Schrags is a Peyton guy. I am. It's fine. Yeah, I don't totally trust. Broncos and Rams might be undefeated. Yeah, they might be undefeated this year, both of them. Broncos and Rams. I have my love for my Shons. Colts minus three against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. We're grabbing this. I like that. This is going to be my pick. I urge my cautions. That's all. Yeah. Yeah. That's all right. I'll take it for mine. Seahawks, they are minus three against Washington. And we're going to grab that. And then last but not least, Bears minus two and a half against the Bengals. We got two and a half.
1:42:20Bill Simmons:That's a great number. That's a great number. We have three road favorites, unfortunately. Okay. But there's nine home underdogs on the slate. So what are we going to do? It's a funky week. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the FIFA World Cup 26. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26. For you, the stakes are just this high. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26, is giving you a chance to win$1 million worth of tickets and prizes. Michelob Ultra from the pitch to the poor. Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6.
1:43:03Bill Simmons:Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26. Superior access. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on December 1st, 2025. Ends on July 31st, 2026. Multiple entry periods. Visit www.MicheleobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG. If I'm ever traveling for work, where I stay is so important. I actually really care about this because sometimes I even have to do a podcast wherever I'm staying. In general, I don't go on the road that much, but when I go on the road, I like to be in a nice hotel with a nice room.
1:43:44Bill Simmons:I'm spoiled. If you sound like me, check out Holiday Inn. It has a whole new energy, especially for business travelers. You'll see it everywhere from refresh rooms to re-imagined social spaces and dining done right with new drinks and dishes. And for business, there are flexible spaces that work for the way you work. It's a new day and a new stay. Book now at HolidayInn.com. So Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Final picks, Chargers, Moneyline, Lions, Moneyline with Bills plus seven and a half. Texans minus one and a half at home against the Broncos. Schraggs is nervous, but you did get to see that defense in person.
1:44:28Bill Simmons:We're awesome. Hats on the ball. A great line from D 'Amico Ryan. What he said, he goes, you know, we're going to hit you. We're going to play this way. We're very aggressive. And he goes, he goes, and I tell the guys, if they don't like playing this way, that's cool with me. You just won't be a Houston Texan. And I was like, oh my God, I almost got out of the room. Like, let's go. Nice. So we got Texans. House is excited that we'll get to bet against the Titans and J.J. McCarthy with the Bills. That's two. Colts minus three against the Steelers. Just this might be our last chance to ride the best offense in the league before people realize.
1:45:00Bill Simmons:Holy shit. Do you remember 99 with the Rams? Like where they came out of nowhere. I remember betting on it. It was great. And it was like, I remember I was in college and we had fantasy football and I had all those guys, Warner, Holt, Bruce. And I remember it being like, not until they beat the Niners in week three or four. And then they kept doing it week after week after week. Is that what we're dealing with here? Is this the 99 greatest show on earth? I remember it's such a good analogy because Warner, I remember all of us didn't trust it until like, it was about week seven. And you're like, all right.
1:45:33Bill Simmons:Every pass the guy throws is dead on to a guy in stride. At some point, this is an accident. Yeah. That's what this feels like. It came from literally out of nowhere, this Colts offense. No one in a million years in all the predictions. They're so fast. There's some good parallels with that because Falk and Jonathan Taylor just being like these all-world running backs. But the Rams were slightly better receivers. They were on turf. Seahawks minus three over Washington is our fourth pick. And then, so we're riding Texans, Seahawks. Those are your two best defenses. Anybody else you would have in there?
1:46:07Defensively? the Colts are really good, turnover and all that stuff, but they're not in that conversation.
1:46:12Bill Simmons:Texas and Seahawks, best in it. The Broncos, probably third. Not with Sertan out. Denver, Houston, Seattle are my defenses, and gosh, Seattle was good on that Monday night game that I saw them. And then the fifth pick, Bears minus two and a half at Cincinnati. If Caleb lets us down here, I'm going to be upset. Kyler Murray's owned. He's not going to do it. I'm going to be upset. He will be Kyler Murray for us after that. He'll be on the DNB list. Shrigs, did you have any thoughts on my crazy prediction that Tyson Bajan will be the bear starter by week 13? Is it even conceivable? Well, you did lay it out that they paid him a lot of money to come back as the backup.
1:46:51Everyone loves him. His dad is a professional arm wrestler. There's this great story there. But I don't think they would bench Caleb. I would have to be like, Caleb got hurt. This guy did great. And it's, oh, he had to make a decision. That's how I look at it.
1:47:03Bill Simmons:okay that was the ringer 107 it was brought to you by FanDuel subject to change we have housed for five more minutes any last topic for you is there a new Barclays pizza we need a let's go on the 107 he didn't give us a let's go he gives the let's goes to McAfee now have you had Lucali Lucali yeah of course I've had Lucali is that a question for me no I bet he hasn't have you had Lucali in Brooklyn Ooh, your next trip. We got you on this one. So Mark Iacano is the... No relation to Sal, I don't think. No. Is the proprietor. It's his little shop in Cobble Hill or Carroll Gardens. The line is out the door.
1:47:47Only about eight tables. Very hard to get a seat. My son's eighth birthday or ninth birthday last week. Took him to Lucali. We got in there. Calzone, pizza, no alcohol. You bring your own. And it's only cash. and it's a sit down. And Bill, I love the only cash. Only cash. We're not going to have any accounting for any of this stuff. Bill, I think it's one of the greatest meals I've ever had. And I'm not looking for a table or anything from those guys. Trust me, they're not worried about me. We got to go next time you come in town.
1:48:15Bill Simmons:House, what's your ideal calzone? Is there anything special that needs to happen with the calzone? It's got to have spicy meat inside of it because you're dealing with a mass, right? With the dough and the way the cheese is. It's like, you know, it's a big, like, it's a big carbo boat kind of thing. So give me something that's going to get a little bite to it. And that's like a nice sauce. And I am such a calzone fan. I love the ragota. I love it all. I think it's so good. And I think it's the most underrated food. Everyone loves their chicken parm. Everyone loves their pizza. A good calzone. I usually put pepperoni in there.
1:48:52I don't know. Is that okay? That's exactly right. Right down there. And I just drown it in that marinara sauce. and I'll tell you, this is not a commercial for that place or any, but even just talking to you two, talking about a good calzone has me ready to run through a wall. Let's go.
1:49:07Bill Simmons:I feel like in general, especially with the Uber Eats orders or whatever you're using, I always feel like they're light on the extra, the side of the tomato sauce. Like if I'm getting the chicken parm, I want like a big ass thing of tomato sauce next to it that I can pour all over the chicken parm. Sometimes on these DoorDash and the Uber Eats, you've got to go to that extra thing where it's like sides and they'll have like a 50 cent extra sauce, I'll put seven of those in there. Just give me seven of them. It's worth the$7, whatever it is, I'm in. And how, with the Chinese food, why don't they just put the mustard in?
1:49:40Yeah.
1:49:41Bill Simmons:I know you have the hot mustard. Put it in the fucking order. Just throw it in the bag. They never do. They act like it's plutonium. It's like it's gold. It's liquid gold to the Chinese. I was the kid, like 12 year old kid with the noodles before the meal. I would be dipping it in the hot mustard. Everyone else is going duck sauce. I was a hot mustard guy. The flavor of the mustard, what it does for your palate, it sets you up for the rest of the meal. Let's go. All the vinegar in that. People don't realize it would get rid of COVID. Hot mustard did. Could have. Probably did. If you ate enough hot mustard at certain Chinese restaurants, your COVID just disappeared.
1:50:16Bill Simmons:It just killed it. It was better than the vaccine. I can't talk about it. No, I love that. The mustard is my favorite and they always skimp on it. It's weird because then other things - Sometimes you don't even get it. Yeah, it's true. I had a great dining experience last spring. Again, we're naming restaurants. These are not to get hookups or anything. Trust me. I just... Have you been to Charleston House? Have you been to Hall's Chop House in Charleston? I've been to Charleston. I haven't been to Hall's. I don't know it. This is my favorite dining experience maybe in the last 10 years. I felt like a gentleman.
1:50:47The service was incredible. The food was incredible. The steaks were incredible. I came away from that meal saying, okay, you know when you have that truly epic meal. I have nothing to gain from this. I'm not going to Charleston anytime soon. Not doing a commercial for them. Hall's Chop House, Charleston. Bill, you got to get you down there.
1:51:04Bill Simmons:House, when's the latest you can eat steak where it becomes dangerous for you as an old guy in your 50s? You mean like at night? Yeah. Doesn't matter. I'm fine. You're just going regardless. I find the red meat past like 8.30 gets potentially a little... I get it. I wish we had taken advantage of our 20s more. I feel like we kind of did. I mean, I guess I did with all the cigarettes and Jack and Cokes. I feel like we did. Did okay. All right, House, go drive your kid to basketball practice. Can't wait. Good luck to him. Schraggs, a true pleasure. Give us a let's go just for our time sake. Let's go.
1:51:41Bill Simmons:Let's go. Good to see you. You're the best, dude. Keep in touch. Thank you for having me. Thank you, fellas. Love you, Schraggs. Appreciate it. House, you're the man. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Schraggs. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo as well. Rewatchable is coming on Monday. We're doing the Truman Show. So don't forget to watch that over the weekend if you haven't seen that already. And thanks to the LA Times for an awesome, awesome story today about the negligence and all the bad leadership and all the dumb stuff that happened that led to the Palisades fire. And I would encourage people to go online and read the piece.
1:52:18Bill Simmons:This is still a massive story, obviously in Southern California. And I don't think the ineptitude has been properly covered. So I urge you to go read that. And I hope people keep reporting about it and writing about what exactly happened here and how preventable all of this was. So I'm going to leave you with that for the weekend. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you on Sunday.
1:52:51Bill Simmons:Must be 21 plus in president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in president DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents. Managing your money works the same way. You've ever thought, am I getting the most out of my financial plan?
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From the publisher
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons and Joe House talk about their “uh-oh” teams before doing a power poll 10 days into the NBA season (4:01). Then, Peter Schrager joins the pod to help Bill and House make their Ringer 107 picks (41:04).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Joe House and Peter Schrager
Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo
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