A Sox-Yanks Nail-Biter, Intriguing NBA Story Lines, and Five Biggest Fantasy Football Story Lines With Bill’s Dad, Michael Pina, and Craig Horlbeck

21:41Bill Simmons:And they played him. The guy that we're avoiding, or at least we avoided today, that I'll be interested if he plays tomorrow is Ben Rice. Yeah. Because he's been kind of a wild card offensive guy for you. Oh, yeah, he'll definitely play. Yeah, you're right. But unfortunately, Baio, I can't say he's been awesome the last six weeks. No, he died in September. Yeah. But the one thing is that he has played well in Yankee Stadium, and he has a very good record against the Yankees. He just isn't pitching well lately. He's not pitching well lately, but he does, I will say in his semi-defense, he does like the big moments.

22:25Bill Simmons:He likes a full stadium, and he does have a little bit of swagger to him that I'll be interested to see if it comes out. I don't know what happened to him the last few weeks. It hasn't been a disaster, but he just hasn't been at the same level. He had a really nice run for like 11, 12 starts. He's going four or five innings. Rodon, as I say. Rodon, yeah. Who's been really good the last month and a half. We have hit him. Well, can you imagine? It's funny to do this because by tomorrow, there'll be another game and this whole segment will be dead. But if they can somehow win one of these next two and knock the Yankees out, who have a relatively healthy team, they've spent more money on it.

23:07Bill Simmons:they were one of the favorites to win the World Series and we knocked them out with this goofy roster of, you know, it's like a mash unit. I don't know how the Yankees respond to that. Do they fire the manager? Does somebody get fired? Is there some major trade? I don't know what they do. Well, they have had worse moments and have not fired the manager. If they're down two runs tomorrow heading into the late innings with the season on the line, this would be out of control. The only thing I do repetitive is Boone deciding to take Freed out. Yeah. I thought Cora managed an awesome game. He's managed some awesome games to get us in here.

23:59Moving. I think he likes having all these players that nobody ever heard of. He's Randy Lefty.

24:07Bill Simmons:Yeah, he's batting Roman Gonzalez queen up. Just getting a huge kick out of it. And he got three walks, which were very important. Yeah. Yeah, so that Max Fried, I'm looking at it right now. Wasn't it 99 pitches? Yeah, but I'm trying to see. Yeah, he went over 100 a few times. His high, he got to 111 at the end of July. He did 107 in their last start of the season. I would have at least finished the inning. I 100 % would have. Put it this way. I was psyched that they took him out. I was like, this is great. Definitely take him out. I think the Red Sox players kind of were going like this. Yeah.

24:49Bill Simmons:We couldn't touch that dude. He was awesome. And even the announcer said the same thing. They're not going to criticize the decision, but they somewhat criticize the decision when they said 99 pitches, crochet 117. You know, they left it hanging for the fan to say, why didn't he stay in there? Well, listen, if this ridiculous Red Sox season, which we both watched a ton of and I've really enjoyed. And I really feel like baseball has made a nice little resurgence. I know some people never left. I know there are reasons why. You never stopped watching. I was getting really frustrated, the Mookie thing.

25:29Yeah.

25:30Bill Simmons:Sent me in a, sent me in kind of a tailspin with the team. The dentist thing kind of sent me a little bit the same way, except. Except I understood it. I mean, we were, the whole thing was so strange with them and it didn't seem like he was in shape and it was a lot of money and it was a chance to, you know, if they're going to actually use that money somewhere else, we'll see. Well, they used it, they used it to tie up some of it to type Anthony. Right. And unfortunately, Christian Campbell, who went to Worcester in June and was never seen again. Yeah, I think we'll see him again in a couple of years.

26:07Bill Simmons:I hope so. He's got to be like, I can't believe I'm not playing when he looked at some of the guys in the lineup. All right. Well, I'm glad we're still doing this. It's funny because when I was looking back at the home run, the game I wrote about the Boone home run. I'm sorry, the column I wrote about the Boone home run in 2003. and I had a whole thing about how, you know, I called to make sure you're all right. And now somehow I'm older than you in that column. And I was worried you were going to keel over and now I'm in the keel over stage apparently. So thanks for paying. And you're still kicking around.

26:42Bill Simmons:So we're doing great. Yeah, except I'm sweating in the air conditioning. Yeah, try to have some water. All right, I'll check in tomorrow. Thanks for popping on the podcast. All right, thanks. Take care. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel and FanDuel is keeping the energy up with their$2 million jackpot every Thursday game of the NFL season. Here's how it works. Opt in and place an anytime touchdown score bet on that night's NFL game using profit boost. If your player scores the first or last touchdown of the game, you earn a share of$2 million in bonus bets. I really like the Rams on Thursday.

27:19Bill Simmons:I think this Niner season is in a lot of trouble. So if you're doing the Rams, just bet on, you could do Puka for AnytimeTD. Do AnytimeTD Puka with the Rams money line, whatever, put Puka in it because he's the best receiver in the league right now. Head to fanduel.com slash BS to download the app and get started. FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus president in select states or 18 plus in president in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in, must apply profit boost token on select market. Prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct first or last TD pick.

27:56Bill Simmons:Bonus issued as non-retrable bonus bet. It's expires 21 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fando.com. Game problem call 1-800-GAMBLE or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Hulu. Glenn Powell is Chad Powers, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+. I actually saw the first episode of this. This show was good. Eight years after flushing his college football career down the toilet, hotshot quarterback Russ Holiday makes a comeback disguised as Chad Powers for the South Georgia Catfish. Determined once again to take college football by a storm.

28:39Bill Simmons:It's a little like Mrs. Doubtfire across the football show, but they openly admit it. Watch the hilarious new Hulu original series, Chad Powers, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers. Terms apply. All right. It is September 30th, which means it's almost October 1st, which means the NBA is somehow only a couple of weeks away. Michael Peen is here from the ringer. Are you ready? Feels like it snuck up this year. Are you ready emotionally? I guess I have to be, right? To be honest, no, I'm not. It has snuck up, I feel like, but we have no choice. It's coming. It's about a month away.

29:19I usually kind of skip the preseason-ish. I just don't think that there's too much to grasp. But regular season's like three weeks away, and when it's here, I'll be ready for it.

29:32Bill Simmons:is Tatum I asked you to do your five things you want to monitor over the next three weeks is Tatum involved or no he is not no okay well can we talk about the Tatum thing quick because this one minute video came on and I know you you you know uh you have some Celtics birdies as well they're this whole Tatum rehab thing with how fast they got the surgery and um them never closing the door, but them also not wanting to talk about anything. And I don't know, man, he looked pretty good running around. And I just wonder, are we going to see him? What's your instinct? My instinct was that that was AI generated.

30:10It made absolutely no sense. He's running up and down the court. How many months after rupturing his Achilles? There's the clip of him sprinting like over half court. How is the human body able to do that? I don't understand it. I'm sure you heard similar things, but the Celtics, they're not positive about this, but because no one will ever know, but it was potentially the fastest ever Achilles surgery after a rupture in human history. That is something that I've heard. And so they don't know what exactly that will do to the human body and the impact that could have. But that video was wild. I did not anticipate seeing that.

30:54Bill Simmons:You know, I said that during the, at some point on a pod, maybe last spring, and I think people didn't think I was serious, that this weird slate of events where he gets injured in New York, where the guy who does the surgery better than anyone in the world is in New York, so he didn't have to fly. And he was on the operating table 10 hours after the surgery. I think it's correct. I don't think that's ever happened before. Sometimes it's like a week or it's like you would have to wait till the swelling goes down. So who knows? It's this injury that just, you know, when I was growing up, only a couple of people would get it.

31:32Bill Simmons:And it was always felt like a death sentence, you know, like their career was never going to be the same. Now it feels a little more common, but I don't know. It seems like it all of a sudden ACL injuries, people are coming back in 10 months and that seemed crazy. So maybe the timetable will speed up. I don't know. Can I ask you, do you think that this is a good thing? I don't unless he's, he'd have to be a hundred percent for like two months. I would not be like, Oh, it seems like he's okay. Let's get him out there. I think it would have to be one of those things where he's scrimmaging with the team, you know, in December, early January, and he's doing that for two months.

32:08Bill Simmons:And there's a point where it's like, well, if he's going to work out every day anyway, why wouldn't he just play, you know but I would be so on the side of being careful versus they don't have a center I don't even really have a I don't know who the leading rebounder is going to be I don't know who the rim protector is it's not like this is a good team but the east after the you know top four is so bad they might be in the six to nine range anyway I don't know I think that it's dependent on how good the team is and even then I would probably be extremely cautious over cautious with his body and his future because I don't think they're winning the championship this season.

32:47They got rid of Drew Holiday and Chris Debs for Zingas. That's just not on the table. A playoff run is not on the table, even if Tatum was 100 % healthy. So I would be extremely cautious with him. I would, I don't know, stop short of making an announcement that he's not going to play to quell suspicion and talk and rumors throughout the year, if that's a thing. They're not going to do that.

33:07Bill Simmons:He's too competitive. He's not going to be like, Yeah, cross it off. I guarantee he's like, I'm going to be back. I'm going to be back. I'm going to be back. And that's all he's thinking. But I just don't know enough about, there's two types of Achilles surgeries apparently. And he got the one where they really repaired it. Because you can get the other one where you can cheat it a little and maybe you can come back faster. He got the real repair. So I guess we'll see. It makes me obviously super duper duper nervous to think of him coming back if he wasn't 100%. Because as you said, they're not winning the title this year.

33:38No.

33:39Bill Simmons:he could come back and be last year's Tatum in April and they're still not winning the title so I would take it easy I'm in the side the over under for them on Fandle I think is 41 I'm on the side of I just can't imagine Missoula rolling over the guy's a complete maniac they have this system in place they have good guards they're going to shoot a ton of threes and I just think they're you know Jalen will obviously be be having a feast every day, taking 28, 30 shots a game. But I think they're going to hang around a lot of games and probably be a little better than people think. I can see that path.

34:20I understand it. Missoula will be, I feel like it wouldn't be shocking to see him wheeled out onto the court in the Hannibal Lecter mask at some point during the season. But you look at the roster and I just think the defense, the defense the rebounding there's so many just like porous elements of this team that can't be fixed and yeah it's just tatum is he's a top five player and removing him alone makes you an average basketball team i think and so i i think this is going to be a pretty bad team and i would bet the under if i were gambling a gambling person yeah i just think they're going to shoot so many threes

35:03Bill Simmons:the variance of every, like betting a random Celtic game would not be recommended because they're going to probably try to shoot 63 as a game and just get as many out. Yeah. The thing with Tatum, it's not just the points and all the ball handling and stuff. It was all the other shit he was doing. He was their best rebounder. He was their best defender. They could play big with him. He was Swiss army knife and all over the place. You're not replacing that. All right. I asked you to do five things that you're monitoring for these next three weeks. things that will help shape what you're looking for with the 2025-26 NBA season.

35:38Bill Simmons:We're going to go from five to one to your biggest one. So what's your fifth one? How good can the Golden State Warriors actually be? They are top of mind right now for me, and I think everyone, just because of the recent activity that we've seen. Now that the moves, we kind of knew throughout the offseason that some of the stuff was going to happen, but now that it's official, you can kind of grade it out. You mean like Horford and yeah, Al Horford, Gary Payton, the second D 'Anthony Melton. It just, it feels more solid and real and worth analyzing after a summer where so little was nailed down and you had the Jonathan Kuminga stalemate.

36:17They had like seven guys on their roster. It didn't feel like a real team. And the way that they lost in the playoffs with Steph Curry getting hurt after playing 45 minutes in game seven against the Houston Rockets, It just didn't seem like, regardless of what they did, that they could actually make another lengthy playoff run. But now that I'm seeing the rotation, I don't know. I kind of like this team. And I'm charting it out in a best-case scenario where Al Horford, who now that he's officially on the Golden State Warriors, I think he might be in the conversation for best free agent signing of the offseason.

36:57Bill Simmons:um he's just 58 out horford games but they'll be really high level each game right he's tremendous he fits in uh he can play out of the pocket spot up threes like if he shoots 40 behind the three point line he provides uh you know the top tier level defense that he does on his best nights and his best stints i just think that that is a humongous addition and like a huge upgrade over the center rotation that they had last year with trace jackson davis and and quinton post and playing Draymond at the five, but now you have more options and versatility. So I just, I love that addition. And look, I think the Kaminga thing is kind of its own side conversation, but I, I, I feel for some reason, optimistic that they will come to some sort of mutually beneficial conclusion here, um, and get him out of there and replace them with anyone like Malik Monk, Royce O 'Neal, those, those names that I saw, honestly, I would be thrilled if I was the the Golden State Warriors, because I think that those are better fits for what they're trying to do in the short term.

38:00Bill Simmons:Yeah, last year they were playing Quentin Post in that spread the floor spot that now they're going to have Al Horford, who's an NBA champion and headed to the Hall of Fame. So the vibes will be better. He's probably the most beloved Celtic teammate of all time. They'll have Butler for a full year. The Kaminga thing's weird. I thought it was weird that Kerr and Dunleavy didn't speak at media day because they didn't really seem like they wanted to answer questions about it. This is just so adversarial for just something that's part of the CBA, right? You can either sign a guy when he's got one year left or you just roll it into the next season and he takes the qualifying offer and you go.

38:43Bill Simmons:And when it got to the point like his agent's going on a podcast to complain about it, it's like, this is your union signed up for this. This is how it goes. They don't want to sign him for that kind of money and play it out. So it feels like it's going to be really adversarial, and I don't really understand it because the best thing for him would be to just kick ass and either he gets traded or he gets a contract. Well, but Kerr is just on the record in various forms that he doesn't really like Jonathan Kaminga for this team. So I just, when are we going to end this and rip the bandaid off? Like it just, I feel like it's a divorce and it's just kind of, it's lingering.

39:27Bill Simmons:The problem is probably Kerr probably shouldn't have said anything. He probably shouldn't have said anything. And then also if you watch the Golden State Warriors, whenever Jonathan Kuminga misses a defensive rotation or shoots a shot when he should have passed it, Kerr is like throwing the clipboard against the ground. So it's just, you can see the frustration with the coaching staff with him. Well, it's funny. He was putting up stats in that Minnesota series. Meanwhile, they're getting waxed every day. And that might be who he is. He just might be a good stats, bad team guy. And that's Jonathan Kamingo, which is why I think people are pretty lukewarm trying to trade for him.

40:02Bill Simmons:I don't, he's the type of player that I just don't know how to value anymore in this market. Cause if you're paying him 22, 24 million a year with this apron and, and how stingy you kind of have to be with guys that aren't your best guys, I just don't know where you're going. Like that was the Josh Giddey conundrum too, for Chicago. They ultimately gave them right around there, but that it's that like 18 million. That's why the Clippers traded Norm Powell. It's that 18 million to 26 million range seems really confusing for teams right now. Because you're better off just getting a guy making 5 million who's 80 % as good as Jonathan Kaminga.

40:41Yeah. And I just don't think he's a good fit for that team. And based on the timeline of where they are, it just doesn't make sense. The giddy with Chicago made sense, I guess you could argue, because of where the Bulls are, which is, I mean, that's a different conversation. The Bulls are going nowhere and doing nothing.

40:58Bill Simmons:Well, he helps them go 40 and 42 and get the 10 seed. Very good point. Gotta lock that down. Yeah, so it's just a different situation. And I personally, if I was running a team, would stay clear of Jonathan Kaminga. I would too. What's your number four? My number four is, when will Laurie Markkinen get traded?

41:21So I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago on the ringer.com.

41:23Bill Simmons:I, I, you had the team that I had been thinking about all summer in that piece. Yeah. I feel like I'm banging my head against the wall advocating for a trade that would send Lowry to the Detroit Pistons. It's the most logical trade of the year. I couldn't agree more. And I just think that they should do whatever it takes considering how poor the Eastern conference is with the Celtics down, the Pacers down, considering, you know, they have this, they have Jaden Ivey, who's this question mark, who's due a contract extension eligible. Is he a good long-term fit with Cade Cunningham and Asar Thompson, who I think are your best two young players, Jalen Duren also.

42:10And the other side of that track is a guy who just compliments everyone perfectly. He is like one of the better sidekicks you can get in the league. I think I know his contract is incredibly pricey and they're going to have to start paying their young talent pretty soon. Detroit is, but I would just, I would swing and I would go for it because he's in his prime. He's 20, Lowry marketing in his prime. I think he's 28 years old and he doesn't need the ball to make other guys better. I think he's one of the more ideal pieces that you could add if you are a team like Detroit that is ascending right now.

42:50So I just want it to happen so bad. I want to see it.

42:54Bill Simmons:Well, he can shoot. He can space and shoot. He can roll to the rim on anything. It feels to me like him and Cade would be perfect together. The bigger question for me is why is he still on Utah when they clearly don't care about the... I mean, they're just... They gave away Collins Sexton. They gave away Collins. they've been this way station for all these dudes that, I don't know. I mean, I like a couple of the guys. I thought Sensaba looked pretty good last year. But for the most part, I don't really know what that team is, how many of those guys will even be in the team three years from now.

43:29Bill Simmons:And all he's going to do is hurt them as they try to get another high pick. Right? So is the question for me is like, it's probably a little more than the Bain trade, right? For what they get for him. it's probably a player plus at least three picks so it's like ivy plus three first and a swap like that's the plus contracts are in there too plus we know yeah tobias harris would be involved for sure um poor tobias he's probably dreading it do you think he's been on reddit and salt lake like lucius looking at condos um yeah so just a tier reading my column Um, yeah, so I think that, uh, it just makes so much sense for him to go there.

44:14But as you said, the price plus the fact that, you know, Danny Ainge and Austin Ainge are the ones who are negotiating this and they're notorious for, particularly Danny, notorious for having his price and not budging from it until a team gets there. And we don't even know if he likes Jaden Ivey. If he doesn't like Jaden Ivey, then there's nothing to talk about. plus the prospect of paying Jaden Ivy immediately. So it's...

44:41Bill Simmons:Plus he's coming off a pretty major injury. I mean, they said he's 100 % and everything, but yes, I mean, Laurie's making 46. Tobias is 26. He can patch the rest of those together. Tobias and Ivy together. Ivy's probably as an asset better than any of the guards they have. You know, but then the conundrum of, All right, is he worth$100 million? Is he worth$120 million? I would probably want Beef Stew in the trade, but I wouldn't give him up if I'm Detroit, if I'm getting Lowry, because now I feel like I can actually make a run at the East. I like that thing. If you have Cade and Lowry as your top two down the stretch in a playoff series, you're in the mix.

45:28Bill Simmons:I don't know if you're better than the Knicks, but you're in the mix. They're not in the mix right now. So they almost beat without beef stew, without Ivy. Of course, the Knicks made some moves, but. Yeah, true. Has he said anything, Markkinen? Has he just been like. I have not seen him comment on it beyond the, I love Utah. I love being here. He's happy there. He's happy with his family there. I just think coming off of Eurobasket, being super competitive, being a guy who has never played in the playoffs? Like at some point. Is that true? He's never played in the playoffs. He's never had one playoff game?

46:11Not a minute. Not a minute. Oh my God. So at what point do you, are you sick of what's happening in this? Like how many losing seasons can you go through if you're Lowry Markkinen where your team is getting fined because you have these questionable issues that are keeping you on the sideline and away from basketball action. So, yeah, I just, at some point, I feel like he will get a, I don't know, disgruntled is probably too strong of a word, but he will put out the flyer that he wants to play competitive basketball.

46:44Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's a little different than somebody being mad that their team can't win the title. This is like, can I just be on a decent team that gives a shit about six months of the season? Can that happen? I'm with you. This is one of the more obvious ones in a while. And I don't know what the mechanics of the trade would actually be, but something's there. And whether they, if I'm Utah, Thompson has to be in it and not Ivy. Well, that's a no-go for me. Really? It's a no-go for you. He's untradeable for me. Untradeable? Well, in this context, yeah, he's untradeable. Yeah, give up something and get something, though.

47:24That is very true. I'm extremely high on Asar Thompson, who I think we could see really special things out of this year. Already one of the better perimeter defenders in the entire league. Already one of the most athletic players in the entire league.

47:38Bill Simmons:Well, that's why I want him from Utah. If I'm Detroit, I'm not doing it. I have to keep him and I have to keep Cade. I'll talk about everybody else. Yeah, yeah. I think we're on the same page. Although I'd probably want to keep Durant too. I don't know why Utah would want him anyway. And now it's time for a very special segment of the show. It's called Perfect Balance, brought to you by our friends at McDonald's. I love McDonald's. Perfect Balance. Let's talk about a duo operating in a professional sport that just seemed like they're made for each other. It's got to be Stafford and Puka Nakua right now for the Rams because it's weird.

48:15Bill Simmons:Stafford had this with Cooper Cup, and he had that legendary best start to finish wide receiver season ever. and then just Cup came in, became the 2.0 version of it. And when you watch those guys, it doesn't matter, third and three, third and eight, third and 13, it just always feels like Puka's going to get open and Stafford's going to find them. And they are in perfect, perfect sync. The best I've ever seen for this was Montana and Rice. Any big game, you just felt like Rice was getting open and Montana was finding them. Not saying Stafford and Nakura, like Montana and Rice. But right now when you're watching football, the connection those two guys really stands out.

48:51Bill Simmons:Really special. Anyway, that's it for this edition of Perfect Balance. Our special segment brought to you by McDonald's. And if you want to taste Perfect Balance McDonald's special edition gold sauce, sweet, smoky, tangy, made just for chicken. It's making me hungry just talking about it. Taking that delicious snack wrap, McCrispy's sandwich or McCrispy's strips to golden new heights. McCrispy just sounds, It's just making me hungry. Available for a limited time at participating restaurants. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.

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50:22Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Did you know you can use TikTok to connect even more with the sports you love? It's not just highlights, it's everything around the game, including the sports community. Find breakdowns of classic basketball plays, deep dives on baseball stats, even videos on how athletes train and recover. There are people teaching strategy, sports, history, even ways to improve your jump shot. It's kind of like the biggest locker room ever and everyone's sharing what they know on TikTok. All right, what's number three? Number three is, so this deep, versatile, highly skilled and experienced version of the Denver Nuggets, just how great will they be?

51:05I can't wait to watch the Denver Nuggets this season. Me too.

51:08Bill Simmons:That's my number one this year. I am so excited. Like, not to spoil anything, but I'm picking them to win the title and not really thinking twice about it. They've been the best offense in the NBA the past few years whenever Jokic is on the court. And the past couple years, particularly last season, it felt like he was doing it with one arm tied behind his back. And now you give him a solid backup center with Jonas Valanciunas. you add Bruce Brown Jr. old friend from the finals team. You get Tim Hardaway Jr. solidifying the bench, giving yourself more crunch time options. The more I think about the Cam Johnson, Michael Porter Jr.

51:50trade, the more I like it for the Denver Nuggets just on the court in the short term. I just think he's a fantastic fit and he gives you things as a ball handler and a play creator that Michael Porter Jr. just doesn't. Um, yeah, you can go tit for tat about who's a better shooter, who's a better movement shooter. Um, and you can talk about the, the, the, the years of chemistry that are baked into the relationship with all those DHOs that MPJ had with Jokic. I just think Cam will pick up right where MPJ kind of left off in that role and be awesome. And he can play with Jokic on the bench and I think boost the offense a little bit.

52:30That's another thing I'm looking forward to watching. So I -

52:34Bill Simmons:Well, the other piece with that is he's not a health risk. Porter had the back issue forever. Last year, he had the shoulder issue. And it's just like, I'm not positive I'm getting eight months out of him. Cam Johnson, I feel way better about just knowing that he's going to be there in April, May, and June. Porter, I think his body really makes me nervous, especially at 40 million a year. Yeah, that's definitely a huge factor. So I know they only won 50 games last year. I don't know how crazy I want to get with this, but I feel like this can be a 61, 62, 63 win team. Do you feel the same way? How optimistic are you about the Nuggets?

53:17Bill Simmons:You're preaching the choir. They're 54 and a half on Fandle right now. Their 60 plus odds are plus 320, which I think is a live bet because we've never seen them with a bench before. Also, last year, you mentioned they win 50. Murray was an absolute mess for the first six weeks of the season, right? And figure he'll come back. They wouldn't have played international. He'll be healthier. And I think their coaches, I think that situation is going to be better. I was really impressed by Adelman last year in the playoffs. I think they really like him too. I think the Malone thing kind of burned out.

53:52Bill Simmons:I love everything they did. I haven't decided what I'm doing yet, but I'm either picking them or OKC to win. It's got to be one of those two teams in my mind. And we've already seen Denver can go toe-to-toe with them. I got to look at it more and I got to look at the back-to-back stuff and factor in stuff like Jalen Williams just not being hurt for four months last year. Or, you know, which he was. He was hurt down the stretch. They hid the injury from us. Top itch, is he actually going to play for them? What is that going to do? What you have after you win the title, the confidence you have, which I just think teams are different in a good way after they win one.

54:34Bill Simmons:And they're young. And usually when a team is trying to repeat, they're usually a little older and they start getting injuries. They're like fucking babies still, you know? So it's a tough one. But I think Denver, I think those are the two to pick. I'm with you. I cannot wait. I'm really happy that they finally did some shit. But it feels like, I was looking at it, they still have a little room left to do maybe one more thing, whether it's like a buyout guy or maybe even get a little creative. They're not like over the second apron or anything. They got rid of that Porter money for Johnson and they added a couple guys.

55:07Bill Simmons:But like Hardaway's on a cheap contract, you know? Yeah, they're barely in the tax. You're right. They're under the first apron, kind of way under the second apron. And they have an empty roster spot. So a little bit of flexibility. The guy I wish they had signed, and I can say this about five teams, is Yabaselli, who I just thought was such a great pickup by the Knicks. I just really like him. And I think, like, I didn't understand why San Antonio didn't get him, and they spent like$10 million a year on Cornette. God bless Cornette, but I would just rather have Yabaselli for half the price. But I think Yabaselli is just a playoff guy, and I thought he would have been good for number two.

55:46Bill Simmons:What do you have for number two? Number two, I don't want to get judged too harshly with this one. Is there any chance the Fred Van Vliet injury ends up being a blessing in disguise for the Houston Rockets? Whether they find out Reed Shepard is actually way better than they thought. Thompson can handle the ball. You run it through more. Yeah, there's some stuff. There's a case. There's a case. I heard you talking about this right after the injury happened, and I was nodding along listening to you and Zach talk about it and specifically talk about how the development of Amin Thompson and Reed Shepard and the Young Pieces was not really the point of the season.

56:32The point of the season is to contend for a championship and win it. You just signed Kevin Durant, and the time is now, and I get that. um you know i've come around and i'm just like maybe i'm overthinking this but just considering the size of this team and if you play like an amen thompson uh jabari smith jr kevin durant albara and shangun stephen adams starting lineup which is something i think you may have to go Ima Odoka said was a possibility at media day. That is like, have we ever seen any basketball team that huge? How do you match up with that? Like how? I don't understand how anyone gets a rebound except the Houston Rockets when they're playing their starting five.

57:21I think there's just so much intrigue with them in terms of, you know, you take out Jalen Green, who I thought was a minus in a lot of ways. you add KD still to kind of boost up the half-court offense. I'm just really intrigued by Amon Thompson. I think he can be one of the more special, highlight reel type of forces we've seen in quite some time, given his size.

57:48Bill Simmons:And he's someone to monitor, too, over the next three weeks. If he starts, like, there's a GQ feature, he launches his new cologne. I hope he's more basketball-centric and not, this is my time. Here I am. I want to see him. Can you make like 13 All-NBA before you add like the 17 things off the court? That would be my hope for him. Sure. I think we're aligned there. Yeah. Just 13 All-NBA. And I love Shang-Goon so much. I loved him for a long time and watching him in Eurobasket. So were you a Eurobasket guy? No, I'm not a Eurobasket guy. I need my rest and relaxation guy. Yeah, because apparently the Eurobasket stuff with him is out of control, but I'm the same as you.

58:33Bill Simmons:I need to decompress for basketball in the summer. I think just the depth of this team. I know Dorian Finney-Smith is hurt right now, but I forgot he was on the roster until I was checking out Media Day. Aaron Holiday is like a stopgap, can be a stopgap point guard who gives you a solid 10-15 minutes a game. I'm really high on Reed Shepard. I like him a lot. And I think this is a fantastic opportunity for him throughout the course of this season. I think we could see him contributing in ways that are different in March and April than they are in October and November. So I love this team still.

59:14I sound like I'm not really an appreciator of Fred Van Vliet. I am. I just think that how the team is built can still withstand that entry to a certain extent. And by the time we get to the playoffs, they will have figured out some stuff about themselves that I think is crucial to surviving multiple playoff rounds in the Western Conference.

59:38Bill Simmons:Yeah, we'll see. I mean, my big point was when we get to these playoffs and you have to play OKC or Minnesota, and if you don't have a true ball handler, I'm just going to be nervous. It's fair. And that's the thing with Reid, who after we did that pod with Zach, a friend of mine who loves basketball and is involved in the league texted me and said he saw Reed at Summer League playing and said he played like a rich, spoiled kid at an AAU tournament. That made me nervous. That's a pretty pointed scouting report. It's where all of our guys really loved him heading into the draft, which we're usually not like way, way off.

1:00:18Bill Simmons:Everybody's like, ah, there's some Mark Price here. Now, the draft was weird. I don't think he would have been the third pick in a normal draft. I think in last year's draft, he probably would have been in the probably six to nine range. But we'll see. He's the X factor. I think it would be interesting because we'll know in December, January with him whether he's actually going to be able to play. Like Pritchard, not to compare two white guys with vaguely similar games, but I'm going to. Pritchard, there was that moment where they were like, he's going to play more this year. We're going to start using him.

1:00:50Bill Simmons:And then he actually, you know, he had the sixth man. But there was a moment there with Pritchard where we were like, what is this guy? Do we just like him because he comes in and he's a heat check guy? Or is there really something here? Maybe we'll find out with Shepard. I don't know. The other thing with Houston that I haven't heard a lot of people talk about is just Durant has moved into this Aaron Rodgers-LeBron area where he's just been in the league for so long. We just assume he's going to be the same every year and his stats are relatively the same. But at some point it becomes unrealistic for a seven foot guy nearing his 40s to just be what we're expecting from Durant.

1:01:30Bill Simmons:And I don't know what that year is. He said he was open to the extension, which kills the Saudi Arabian league because I think he was one of the guys that was probably going there if they had it. But I just don't know what he looks like next year, three years from now. Is this going to be the last good Durant year? I don't know. I will say real quick, I like the fact that Houston Rockets are built to preserve Kevin Durant, like preserve his body. Like he's not going to be playing in the interior defensively at all. That's a really good point. Yeah, because he was almost tied to Brooklyn and Phoenix.

1:02:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, you're right. He was probably Phoenix's best defender last season, which really says a lot about their situation and why they were so poor. But yeah, I just think it's a really great, well-constructed team. And I think to answer the whole point of this exercise, I'm just super interested in seeing how it looks on the court with this just being so huge. Like Tari Eason is like one of the better wing offensive rebounders in like NBA history. I can't wait to see it. It's just going to be a lot of fun. It sounds like you're going to watch some Rockets preseason. What do you got for number one?

1:02:40I think that this is the most important question in the league from a big picture standpoint. Where and how will Victor Wimbanyama be better this season? It's just like, are his post moves going to be tighter? Is he going to shoot 40 % behind the three-point line? Is he just going to be quicker reads in the pocket? I don't know if you saw, but he's officially listed at 7 '4 now.

1:03:07Bill Simmons:They're still lying. He's 7 '6". Why do they do this? He's definitely 7 '6". He's clearly the biggest person in the league. And just, I mean, I don't need to explain why Victor Wemanyama is awesome, but adding more sensible pieces around him. I know De 'Aaron Fox is this nagging injury that's kind of a bummer and could derail a little bit of the beginning of the season. But still, when Dylan Harper gets back, when Fox is back, they still have Vassell. I like the Luke Cornett signing a lot. And I feel like a lot of the talk at Media Day with the Spurs was just how excellent their defense is going to be.

1:03:48And I agree with that. I mean, top five defense is in the cards for them this year. and I want to see just how Victor evolves offensively to the point where, you know, last year, San Antonio's offense was the exact same with him on the court and off the court. And obviously the roster is a little bit different now. Yeah. But I just want to see the offensive rating go to a top 10 in the league tier when he's on the floor. And I feel like that is already possible. And I'm not going to spoil where I had him in my top 100, but by the end of the year, I think he could get even higher and there's not too many players that he can jump.

1:04:31Bill Simmons:Over 44.5 for them. Out of all the teams in that range, I think that's the one you have to stare at as who could make the big jump that we aren't expecting. And it basically comes down to if he's just on the court for six months with all these athletes and all this defense they're going to have and finally a little bit of size. I like Cornette too. I would have just rather had Yabaselli who played with him in France for half the price, but they have Cornette. They had the money to do it. he'll be able to play with Wemby, I think, a little bit. Wemby's talked a big game about the training he's done.

1:05:09Bill Simmons:He shaved his head.

1:05:13Bill Simmons:Yeah, you're probably right. They're probably the biggest floor-ceiling team. But if you think, like, who has the most floors between their ceiling and their basement, they probably have the most floors. Because there's also the, can Wemby play a whole season? yeah absolutely i think that do you trust him what would you move over under for games for him i was like i don't know 65 62 at this time of year i'm always just an eternal optimist and i assume everyone's gonna play 82 games so that's where i'm at and he talked a lot about yeah you mentioned it the off-season training and no one worked harder than me uh this summer and i i don't know like he's already the best defensive player, but there's still so much that he can get better at defensively.

1:06:07And obviously like offensively still so high impact. I mean, I always think about just him at MSG on Christmas day and the show he put on. And it's like, we're going to get to a stage where that is consistently who we see. And I just want to see when that, when that happens. And this is year three, a leap could be coming if it does. San Antonio Spurs could be extremely dangerous.

1:06:35Bill Simmons:And they have some pieces if they want to get frisky December-January range. It's interesting, on FanDuel, he is tied for the fourth-best MVP odds already. Him and Giannis are about 12-1. They're behind SGA and Jokic and Doncic. But better odds than Edwards. It gets really kind of dumb after that. All of a sudden, Durant's 50-1. He has the sixth-best odds. Kate Cunningham, Brunson, Mitchell. It's really a four-person MVP race with Wemby and Edwards as the wild cards. Edwards as a wild card only if Minnesota, for some reason, went like 65 and 17, and he was just incredible. That would be the way for him.

1:07:16Giannis, I mean, Wemby, they're 54 and 28.

1:07:20Bill Simmons:He's Defensive Player of the Year. He plays 72 games and puts up, what, 25? 10 and three with five blocks a game. There's some case. I'm excited to watch him with Fox too. Cause I, I, we just didn't get it at all. I didn't really know what it looks like. Only five games last year. Yeah. Yeah. Harper. I don't know how much he's going to help them this year. Cause he's pretty raw, but it'll be fun when he comes in, you know, but it's, and he's been at every stage of his life. He's been one of the best players at whatever level he's been on. So I find out how to believe he's just not going to play this year.

1:07:59Bill Simmons:You'll hear from him. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's an interesting team. I think that's a good first choice. I think I agree with it. The only one I would have added is I'm really interested, even in the preseason, with how Dallas is going to use flag. And I don't think they even know what they have yet, and they're doing this point forward. And I just, to me, I wouldn't have him dribbling the ball. I wouldn't have him handling the ball like that that much. I would be using him as this crazy Swiss army knife all over the floor, playing big lineups, small, and just kind of taking advantage of him as a two-way guy.

1:08:38Bill Simmons:I'm going to be interested to see how much they throw at him, especially with Kyrie not back yet. You know? Yeah, I think that's an interesting one. And, you know, Dallas has so many different types of lineups that they can play even with Kyrie out. And if you play Cooper Flagg as your point guard, or if you don't play him as your point guard, I should say, then does Klay Thompson come off the bench? Is he happy about that? Does Anthony Davis play the five more instead of this really eternally frustrating commitment to the four with Gafford and Lively constantly? Or do you play a center with AD and Flagg as your front line?

1:09:21Bill Simmons:and then you just play Clay and D 'Lo or you play Clay and PJ Washington and you have Flagg dribble the ball up. Like they do have like some crazy lineup options and I have no idea how they're going to play it. Because I think Flagg for his age, remember how long it took for Tatum to even figure out how to be a point forward? It took him like probably four years to even be able to consistently handle pressure and things like that. His rookie year, he was just running into corners and not doing anything. He was a spot-up shooter. Yeah. Yeah. So just to ask Flagg, come in to the hardest league in the planet, and you're going to handle the offense?

1:09:58Bill Simmons:I don't know. Maybe you can do it, but I'd be surprised. And apologies to Conk Knipple for not making your top five. I was really excited. I thought about it. You know, gave him a long look. Just couldn't fit him in, unfortunately. I don't know who my league pass favorite is going to be for the bad 4 p.m. PT games between Charlotte or Washington, but they're both in the mix. because Washington's just a freaking fantasy team. I don't know what's going to happen with them, but I'm kind of excited to watch them. And then Charlotte has the makings of maybe being okay. You know, who knows? Yeah, Charlotte has my attention.

1:10:34Bill Simmons:13 and seven. Oh, yeah. You know, to start the first 20 and they're talking like, LaMelo's figured it out and all that. Who knows? All right, Michael Pina, look forward to reading you on The Ringer and seeing you and listening to you on all of our shows. Good to see you. Thank you. Thanks, Bill. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the FIFA World Cup 26. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26. For you, the stakes are just this high. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26. It's giving you a chance to win$1 million worth of tickets and prizes.

1:11:11Bill Simmons:Michelob Ultra, from the pitch to the poor, superiors worth playing for. Enter now at michelobultra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6 Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26 superior access no purchase necessary open to U.S. residents 21 plus begins on December 1st 2025 ends on July 31st 2026 multiple entry periods visit www.micelobultra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry entry deadlines prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. On the court, the pitch, the track, even the pool, professional athletes show extraordinary physical flexibility.

1:11:53Bill Simmons:For us normal people, we've got PayPal's flexible monthly payment plans. Pay nothing at checkout, then enjoy a flexible monthly payment plan that works for you with no signup or late fees. And it's available millions of stores. Pay monthly with PayPal. Subject to approval, pay monthly consumer loans made by WebBank, available through PayPal Inc. NMLS 910457. Learn more at paypal.com slash pay monthly. All right, Craig Horlbeck is here just back from the streets of Ireland where he was with the fantasy football crew going to see Steelers Vikings, your favorite team, the Steelers. What was the overseas football experience like?

1:12:33Bill Simmons:Not just Ireland, but just in general, the whole thing. Tell us. It was way better than I thought it was going to be. It It was the first game in Ireland, obviously, and the Steelers being there was a big deal, particularly. Like, the Rooney's and the Steelers really pitched Goodell specifically on going to Ireland. Dan Rooney, who was the son of Art Rooney, the founder of the Steelers, was the U.S. ambassador to Ireland under Obama. So, like, there's a lot of connections between Steelers and Ireland. And it was crazy. I mean, 90 % of the people walking the streets were wearing Steelers jerseys.

1:13:06There was very little Vikings action there. So, it was awesome. Like, the whole atmosphere, It honestly felt like I was at the Super Bowl.

1:13:11Bill Simmons:Wow. Because we took the Vikings in Ringer 107 last week, and then you texted me, yeah, it's all Steelers fans here. And I'm like, what? I had no idea that it was like basically Pittsburgh adjacent. Yeah, it was crazy. Like there was a quote after the game from Patrick Queen, the Steelers linebacker, and he said that the atmosphere there was better than in Pittsburgh. Oh my God. I was just like, they should play there every year. What were the fans like? Like were they the stereotype of, I'm 25 % Irish, so I could say this. Like a hard-drinking, happy Irish crowd? Yeah. Or like, were there things you, did they seem like they knew the rules?

1:13:47Well, it was funny. Before the game started, they were like on the Jumbotron. They were teaching the fans the game. There was like every rule for like the first hour before the game. They were showing every like rule, every flag, what each position does. So they were clearly trying to teach people what was going on. But luckily, I feel like the game had a lot of big moments that people who didn't even really know what was going on could be happy about. Like the DK Metcalf run, there was the Jalen Ramsey. We thought it was the fumble return for a touchdown. That was huge. People went crazy. So at least there was a lot of big, easy-to-understand moments.

1:14:19But there must have been 50 ,000 Irish people there that are now converted Steelers fans for life.

1:14:26Bill Simmons:Wow. I mean, did they seem like they had enough sophistication and realized that when the Vikings lost two guys, that Carson Wentz was their QB, the game was over? that that was a wrap? They probably now know what Carson Wentz is all about. It was great because they really got a real masterclass of two coaches crumbling at the end of the game, O 'Connell and Tomlin. They must have thought they were drunk on Guinness because the last four minutes, they probably didn't even really know how bad it was. But also, it was a perfect NFL game because there was so much fun stuff, big plays, big moments.

1:14:58But then at the end of the game, there's all these tiny, ridiculous rules like the Carson Wentz getting thrown to the ground, but getting the intentional grounding call. People were confused by that. There was like the Kevin O 'Connell onside kick. It was kind of the perfect NFL experience, I feel like, for the Irish fans there. They got a little bit of everything.

1:15:18Bill Simmons:What was the dominant Steelers jersey in Ireland? Please don't tell me Aaron Rodgers. Watt, okay. Yeah, Watt was everywhere. I got to say, I was very little Ben Roethlisberger jerseys these days. Interesting. I know. He was there. Bettis was there. There was a lot of Steelers guys there. It's all Watt. And then a little bit of Rodgers sprinkled in. People like Rodgers right now. Like, the players like Rodgers. I know there's a lot, like, a lot of people in media don't like him. But I think a lot of players like Rodgers. He met Aaron Jones after the game on the field. And, like, they all love Aaron Rodgers.

1:15:53So, it's interesting that there's such a... I think it might be the biggest split between media perception and then what players actually in the locker room feel about a guy.

1:16:01Bill Simmons:Do you, Pittsburgh Steelers fan, Craig, Aaron Rodgers? Have you gotten there yet? You're 3-1. You're in the catbird seat in the NFC and the AFC North, which I want to talk about in a second. But you were... It took you a while to come around on this one, and then you kind of had to blindly come in because it's your team. But have you come around? I mean, right now, yeah. How can I not? They're 3-1. Rodgers is playing good. Vibes are high. The schedule's about to get horrific, so it might turn very quickly. And angry Rodgers when the... Like, Rodgers, it's a lot more fun, his antics, when they're winning.

1:16:32if they go like one and four over their next five, the vibes might kind of drastically flip. But right now, yeah, he's playing good. They're using him well, I think. Like it's a lot of quick hitting stuff, but he's getting the ball out quick. They're using DK Metcalf, like Debo Samuel. They're just like, they're not running him down the field that much anymore. They're just getting him the ball, you know, two yards down the field and letting him run and pick up steam. It's like a bunch of tight ends and heavy offensive line sets. I think the Arthur Smith-Rodgers thing is actually working a little bit better than everybody thought.

1:17:03Rodgers is kind of playing ball with Arthur Smith and actually doing some of the things that Arthur Smith wants, like taking the ball under center and stuff. So it's nice to see right now.

1:17:10Bill Simmons:Well, it was really frustrating to go against when my team played them because I just felt like he can only do two things anymore, but he does them really well. And the defenses haven't seemed like they've figured out the quick stuff. You said the schedule does get harder. They still have some good teams left. They have Green Bay left, Indianapolis, the Chargers, Buffalo, Detroit. They got Baltimore twice. So they're three and one. I was trying to figure out, well, there was a lot of dirt poured on the Ravens this week. Lamar went out. They've lost all of these defensive starters, including a couple for the year.

1:17:40Bill Simmons:I don't know where their pass rush is. They're a little top heavy now from a salary cap standpoint. And they're one and three, which is usually not a good sign for a possible playoff team. The thing is, I was looking at their schedule, because I said on Sunday, because I had in my head, I thought they had a tough schedule, but it was really tough in the first month. Then it died a little bit. they had three straight home games. Then basically they play all non-playoff teams except for Pittsburgh until week 15, whereas Pittsburgh has a much tougher slate. The bigger question to me is, is this just a bad division?

1:18:16Bill Simmons:Because since he's bad and Cleveland's bad, and maybe neither of these teams are good, maybe this is just like the AFC South this year. Yeah, I mean, Lamar's going to be out, it looks like, for at least a couple weeks. So even though they're playing the Texans, the Rams, and then the Bears, which is tough, because they could probably lose a lot of those games. but you're right. I mean, I still think it's likely that he comes, if he comes back in two, three weeks, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals, they're going to have to go like eight and one, eight and two down the stretch to make the playoffs, which I definitely honestly think they will.

1:18:45But the Browns, it looks like, are starting Dylan Gabriel now, Burrows out. This to me, it's like the Steelers, it's all going to kind of end up, I think, the way everybody expected. It's just going to be a different path there. Like, I think the Steelers will end up with like nine or 10 wins. It's unbelievable. Be a wild card team.

1:19:00Bill Simmons:I finally went under on them. I couldn't take it anymore. The 41-year-old Rodgers. I was like, I can't. I'm out, guys. And somehow they're three and one, and they're just going to figure out how to get to nine wins. Because six and eight gets up to that nine wins. Six and seven. I mean, they were winning nine and ten games with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph. How can they not do it with Aaron Rodgers? That feels easy. This is weird. Tomlin is just like, he's like a family member for you at this point that just does weird shit every day. And you're just like, ah, that's Uncle Mike. Yeah. Just taking the delay of game on fourth and one for no reason at all and then punting in the end zone.

1:19:32I wish he could coach for three and a half quarters and then we have a new coach for the final quarter. Can I go closer? Yeah, yeah. Can we do that? Can we have two coaches for different quarters? That'd be great.

1:19:41Bill Simmons:That'd be amazing. Like whoever the best unemployed coach is, they just come in and they take it over.

1:19:49Bill Simmons:The Cincinnati piece, I didn't think they were going to be good anyway. And then on Monday night, they were so bad. I mean, did you get back in time to watch the two terrible Monday night games? No, I was in the air, but I was watching on my phone. You missed nothing. You missed nothing. Cincinnati feels like this might be a wrap for them because they were so top-heavy to begin with, and now with no offensive line in Browning, it doesn't even matter that they have$60 million of receivers. And then Cleveland, at least Cleveland's defense is good. I don't know if they're going to figure out the quarterback situation in time.

1:20:22Bill Simmons:So, I mean, this might be a nine-win title champ. Definitely. Yeah, the Steelers have a real shot to win the division, but the schedule just gets so hard for them, and it opens up so easily for the Ravens at the end that I think it's going to be close still. I'm looking up the odds. So you think, so Lamar's out. We don't know for sure. And they're still minus 150, and the Steelers are plus 190 now, which is under, you finally got into the 100s. I mean, 190's not bad. You should probably take that. Well, how many, what do we really think with Lamar? because these hamstring things always are two weeks longer than they say they are.

1:20:59Bill Simmons:I never trust the hamstring. Also, it's like worse for him than a different quarterback. Like if he was Jared Goff with a tweaked hamstring, it's like less, not that big of a deal. With Lamar, I don't think Lamar in general, we were talking about this on the fantasy show. I feel like Lamar is slightly less athletic than he used to be. And you can kind of see it. And it's like all these guys, I mean, Mahomes is 30, which is weird in my head. He seems like he's 27. So Lamar's 38. Josh Allen's 29 all these guys who are super physical all these great runners like we're in this new awesome era where half these quarterbacks are great throwers and runners we don't really have a lot of like data on how running quarterbacks age like really good running quarterbacks age there's like a few guys we've seen it's like Michael Vick but I think who did not age well by the way no and like I think Lamar's a good passer but I do think that he he is in a different phase I think athletically like he's no longer out running linebackers as easily as he used to He's not as twitchy, I think.

1:21:54So the hamstring, even if he does come back in a couple weeks, I don't know if he'll be the same.

1:21:59Bill Simmons:Not to defend Lamar. It's possible he was hurt already and the thing got worse. I noticed it too, but I think he's too young to be moving into a... If he's like 33, it'd be one thing. But it is interesting to watch somebody like my guy, Drake May, who Sal D 'Reiss will be called Drake Maybe, which I'm still upset about. Maybe he's good now, it looks like. Maybe he's good, but he does seem really athletic. I don't know. If you think about like a running back, right? A running back around 28, 29 starts to enter a new phase of their career. And Lamar and Josh Allen, these guys are like, they're not running quite as much as running backs, obviously, but they're also runners.

1:22:38So I don't think it's that crazy to think that when they're 28, 29, 30, maybe their passing is still like going on the way up. But the rushing, I think, will start to plateau, at least athletically.

1:22:49Bill Simmons:I think a good one for this is Steve Young, who unfortunately for him was playing in a different era where you would just get it absolutely annihilated. But Steve Young was like the best athlete of the 90s. And his career started later, so he had less miles on him. Let me look at this. Yeah, I mean, Steve Young, he didn't start until he was, what, 30? Yeah, but he basically 30, yeah. So, yeah, I guess that's a tough one. Yeah, there's not a lot, because I'm trying to think of some other ones. I mean, Cam Newton, who was more physical as a runner, but still, he kind of was moved into a different phase by that late 20s.

1:23:27Bill Simmons:You might be right. It's an interesting theory. You have to monitor it. This will be the first wave of dudes, though. I feel like Allen will be superhuman until he's like 35, 36. He's just too big. Yeah, he's got the size. That's the thing. He's not reliant on the quick twitch stuff. He's just like a freight train. Are you back in on Mahomes? I mean, yeah, what he's doing with these receivers, he's making all the old Patriots receivers that got cut relevant, Tyquan Thornton and Juju Smith-Schuster and all that stuff. Xavier Worthy being back, and I didn't think he was going to be healthy or look good because that shoulder injury from week one looked bad, and I can't believe he's back so soon.

1:24:03He looked all right, and Rasheed Rice is back in two weeks, and yeah, I think you have to be back.

1:24:09Bill Simmons:It's playing out the way it felt like it was fun to do the, oh my God, the Chiefs, but it was like, like, all right, let's see what this looks like when Rice is back. The Thornton thing is a fun X factor. We all liked him on the Patriots. He just couldn't stay in the field. But it was clear like he was fast as shit, but he kept either getting hurt or dropping passes, and they just gave up on him. Yeah, he looks pretty good. Fun toy for them. We had the most traumatic fantasy injury we've had in a while last night with Tyreek Hill, who's having a really good game too. He, of course, is on most of my teams.

1:24:42Bill Simmons:but that was one of those immediately it's over it feels like for the most part though through this first month first month we haven't had a ton of like oh no my season's over injuries right that was the biggest one and neighbors yeah this week started a lot of them but uh no knock on wood last year the running backs were super healthy and everybody thought that wasn't going to happen again and so far the running backs have been pretty healthy it's the quarterbacks who have been injured. Right. Well, and the thing with the quarterbacks is if you don't have Allen, you don't have Lamar, there's like 10 other guys that are all around the same.

1:25:16Bill Simmons:Yeah. Right. And it doesn't in, in our Yahoo fantasy draft that we did with that I'm owned for. Um, and I took all those quarterbacks. It was actually the right move. My mistake was building a team around Jamar Chase and Brian Thomas Jr. Who apparently, um, is in witness protection now. Are you starting to sweat in that league are you nervous you're the only own four team punishment is kind of looming of course i mean i built my team around two receivers who are underachieving and brock bowers who it seems like he's either playing hurt or being used as a second tight end i know i had a theory i wanted to pitch to you because of yeah honestly based around the all the injuries that are going on i think fantasy should start after week four i think that's the solution i think you watch for a month because there's no preseason anymore basically nobody plays so no one's everyone gets hurt the first month of the season because they're not used to the physicality yet like like they're not practicing in pads they're not getting hit first month everybody goes down everybody looks like shit and so many people's fantasy seasons are just over already it's week four and it's like oh great i brian thomas is just terrible i had no idea malik neighbors just tours hl burrows out for the season and it's like it's just a horrible experience if we all just drafted after week four, it'd be a much more interesting situation in my opinion.

1:26:31Bill Simmons:I was in two guillotine leagues and I think that solves some of what you're thinking because you could do the mid-season guillotine league. We lost the other one that I'm in that you're not in. We lost because we have Tyreek and Lamar and it was just the, the unrecoverable double whammy, but the bigger issue is having Kenneth Gainwell on the bench and then waking up and finding out that he was actually starting. Regardless, the guillotine, I was way more invested in where we are and did you survive and what do you do? And then the guys that come up, it's versus like the old school fantasy where it just seems like completely random.

1:27:07I know. When you're 0 and 4 in a regular fantasy league, you're just fighting to stay above water for the rest of the season. Yeah,

1:27:14Bill Simmons:it's like you've basically been guillotined anyway. Well, we did punishments for the Yahoo fantasy league and uh i was okay with the one i had but now i'm starting to wonder about it's does the winner so i picked i have to wear a jersey of a team that i absolutely hate yes this is kind of your worst case scenario because you're right now in last and sal is in first so he gets to decide what you wear oh jesus who knows what he'll do so like he could basically say I don't know where we're like a LeBron Lakers jersey or wear a Roger Clemens Yankee jersey. And then I would have to wear that on my podcast for a solid week.

1:27:57Yeah.

1:27:58Bill Simmons:But I feel like I would deserve it because I did a bad job with the fantasy league. I asked you to come up with your top five fantasy stories through four weeks. I don't know if we stepped them already, but let's go from five to one. What do you have for number five? So we're starting small and we're ending on the biggest. Yeah. uh all right so starting small i gotta say i think fifth is just that the a lot of these are rookie related because this was a big rookie hype season i feel like there was a lot of rookies being drafted very highly in drafts travis hunter just being irrelevant immediate just a disaster we joke on the fantasy show we call him expensive wandale robinson yeah and i was very jealous of that bit yeah it's almost insulting to wandale robinson at this point he's like he's like expensive of pop Douglas.

1:28:41He is. He's just like not playing and he's the worst of both worlds. He doesn't play corner that much and he doesn't play receiver that much. So I don't, he's the 77th highest scoring wide receiver this year in fantasy, which feels impossible, but he, you know, he was being drafted before guys like Roma Dunze, Abuka, Pearsall. He plays 58 % of the snaps. He's like a backup tight end. You know, it's, it's, it's a disaster.

1:29:05Bill Simmons:He's, he doesn't really jump out off the TVs either like I thought he would. I mean, there's a disaster from a fantasy standpoint because people were drafting him like he was better than Igbuka, which was nuts. But there's the other piece where they traded up to two. They gave away next year's number one pick. And even worse, they didn't take Abdul Carter. Like, if they had traded up to two and taken Abdul Carter, I'd be like, alright, I get it. The guy looks like he's Michael Parsons 2.0, basically. Or even if they had taken Will Campbell who's been awesome at left tackle, where they just stayed at five and they took Mason Graham, who's been really good on the Browns.

1:29:43Bill Simmons:But they traded up to take a guy that, if you redrafted, there's no way he goes ahead of those three. I'm not sure he goes ahead of Gentry, especially after what we saw last week. I'm not sure if he goes ahead of Membo and Banks, the two tackles that win the top 10. It's really rough. Fortunately, there's no Jaguar fans to get mad about it, but holy shit. No, they need to just give up. I think that they're trying to double down because they want to prove that it was worth it to trade up for him. So like, no, no, we're going to stick to the, he's going to play both sides of the ball thing. Because that's the only way we can explain having to trade away a first round pick to move up two spots.

1:30:21Bill Simmons:That's the only way you make the trade. If you think you're getting two players, which is how they kind of, they soft sold it after the draft. Like, look, this is like filling two positions at the same time. And it's, it's filling none. It really was, you know, that guy took over Gladstone. Yeah, who's like my age. Yeah, and he wanted to make a big move and be splashy and gutsy. But, you know, it's like putting an indoor pool in, like, your two-bedroom house. You know, like, look at this. We can swim inside. It's like, all right, cool. We really do need a ranking of, like, the new GM, new owner, splashy move, disaster power rankings.

1:30:58We need a list of that. Like, Ishbia coming in and just, like, signing Gladly Beal.

1:31:01Bill Simmons:like we need we need a ranking of all of those well the owners it's pretty reliable it's weird when the gms do it yeah like if i'm getting a job i'm like man i really want to do everything right these days he was like ah travis hunter he's deon sanders here are all our picks yeah i mean he's like 34 he's been watching football for 10 years like you know travis hunter was probably the best player he's ever seen in his life he's like i'm taking that guy unbelievable well that trade we'll see, but it has the early makings of an all-timer. All right, what's number four? Number four is Tyler Warren, the tight end on the Colts, just immediately being a top five tight end in fantasy for the next decade.

1:31:41It was week one. It was the first drive of week one, and he had three catches for 40 yards, and I think it was the quickest I've seen all I need to see start to a career ever. I was like, it's it. It's over. He's good. He's now immediately in the top five because, I mean, Kittle's hurt. Brock Bowers is banged up. McBride's been fine. It's like Tyler Warren might be the number one tight end in the NFL right now.

1:32:06Bill Simmons:What's weird is we have a ton of good tight ends. Yeah. And yet he really jumps out. I mean, it's so funny because when I was doing the Pats preparation, when they had the fourth pick, and it was like, well, maybe we trade back two spots and we just take Tyler Warren because he looked amazing. Yeah. And then by the time the draft started, It was like people stared at his tape too much. And then they decided Loveland was better. Loveland went 10 and he fell to 14, which is like, that's stupid. This guy's clearly a monster. I like when they line him up in the backfield. And then he's basically like, I don't know, almost like a sports movie, like a high school running back that's just way bigger than everybody else.

1:32:44Bill Simmons:It just plows into everybody. He's awesome. They treat him like they like Derrick Henry in high school where he just like does everything. He ran in a touchdown last week. He was throwing touchdowns in college. He'll probably throw a touchdown this year. He's like LaDainian Tomlinson, but as a tight end, he can do everything. Yeah, it's funny. I really wanted to talk myself out of the Colts being a playoff team, but they should have won last week. They should be 4-0, and they just have a lot of skill. Taylor, I think, is in the running for most talented running back, and he's certainly one of the best running backs this year.

1:33:16Bill Simmons:They have a bunch of receivers who can get open. They have Warren. They have a good offensive play caller. Like, I think it's legitimate. I thought they should have beat the Rams last week. That was a really stupid result. It's a really tough beat for Anthony Richardson. Like, the fact that the Colts are so good immediately. Like, they brought in Daniel Jones, who, you know, I don't know, is a fine quarterback and can run an offense. And they're, like, fucking awesome. It's like, Jesus, how bad was Anthony Richardson that this team is immediately a playoff team? So you're buying the Colts long-term.

1:33:46Yeah, I think they're good.

1:33:48Bill Simmons:For fantasy purposes, too? Definitely. I mean, Michael Pittman's been really good and surprising. Jonathan Taylor's always been one of the best running backs in the league. I mean, he was amazing in college, and he's finally healthy. He just had a weird couple of years. He was suspended. He was hurt. Yeah. Yeah, the holdout always kills these guys for a year. I think we're going to have two AFC South playoff teams the more I stare at it. And Houston might be one of them. I'm still not willing to count them out because their schedule was tough early. They're 1-3. They're right in the middle of this.

1:34:20Bill Simmons:I think they're playing Baltimore. Aren't they playing Baltimore this week? Yeah. Catching Baltimore, the backup, which on paper was supposed to be one of their toughest games and suddenly it doesn't look as tough now. And then what was the other thing I noticed with them? Are you still in on Stroud? I don't know about CJ Stroud anymore. It's been like a year and a half since he's been good. It's weird because they drafted these receivers and they kept Collins. And then I've heard the case that losing Tank Dell was really important for him, but I don't know. Should that completely change the course of your career that Tank Dell got hurt?

1:35:00Bill Simmons:His offensive line can't block. No, but there's a lot of other quarterbacks. You could say like nine quarterbacks don't have an offensive line that can block. Yeah, I don't know. I'm starting to worry. Bryce Young is still not very good, so it still looks like CJ Stroud was the right pick, obviously. But I don't know. With him, they're moving through offensive coordinators. They're moving through offensive lines, and none of them are seeming to work. And it just goes to show you shouldn't start a podcast after your rookie season in the NFL. It's a bad sign. Or do. Didn't he big bro? Who did he big bro?

1:35:29Bill Simmons:Caleb Williams? Caleb, yeah. Yeah. It felt like from the moment he did that, the wheels came off. I thought he was really good as a rookie, though. So we know. Oh, he was amazing. Yeah. I refuse to believe it's not in there. But yeah, every week he does not jump out of the TVs and does look awesome. All right, what's number three? Number three is Emeka Ibuka just being the most obvious rookie that was going to be good. He's a top, he's the wide receiver seven in fantasy right now. Wow. And I can't remember a wide receiver looking like a vet so quickly. Yeah. And it's just one of those classic things where Scadaboo was kind of this way where it's these players who are obviously good in college, but they don't test well.

1:36:09And it's like, well, he was never, he was never the best receiver on his team. You know, there was all these other awesome Ohio statewide receivers around him and, you know, at the combine. Oh, you know, he's not the fastest. He's not, he can't jump the highest, all this stuff. But every game you watch, he's, he's just like always good, always clutch, always delivers. These guys always work. It's like a Monroe St. Brown's and Keenan Allen's, Chris Godwin's, these guys who just, yeah, Puka. I don't, we should like go the other way with the combine. I want the guys who test poorly. If they were good in college and then they test poorly, I want them.

1:36:39Bill Simmons:well the fact that they named him captain before the year that was crazy i've never even seen that we talked about him when we did our big fantasy my guy draft with dk and uh right he was your guy and danny yeah but it was like you guys all had him too it was it was you can kind of tell from the preseason when somebody just has it with the way everyone's talking about it and what's weird is brian thomas jr was that guy last year yeah and then i don't know what happened to him this year but uh igbuka seems like a little bit of a safer bet i like the fact that evans went out and he was still impactful against philadelphia like you know that that was like all right he's got mike evans on the other side maybe but it didn't matter he's just gonna get his yards um what do you got for number two two i have that roma dunze and caleb are quietly very good at fantasy i don't rome i think is really good yeah caleb i think the jury's still out we don't exactly know but But in fantasy, I mean, it's working.

1:37:39Roma Dunze is a top three wide receiver in fantasy. Caleb is the sixth highest scoring quarterback right now, which I think people aren't really realizing. And even if they haven't looked that good, the Ben Johnson stuff for fantasy is working. And the schedule is so easy. I mean, we knew that going in, but man, they've already started out pretty hot in terms of fantasy. You look at their next four games, they play Washington, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. I think it's only going to get better. And again, I'm still on the fence with Caleb, but the people who bet on them in fantasy and believed in Roman Duns and Caleb Williams, it's working.

1:38:13It was a huge success.

1:38:14Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's funny. Josh, Lamar, and Mahomes are the top three in fantasy just for points right now. The next two are Drake and Caleb. Yeah. The two second-year guys. And I like Drake this year, especially because he's going to get the extra points with his legs. But Caleb I loved. Yeah. And I think you're right. I think even in a game where the Bears kind of suck, I feel like he's still going to get points somehow. He'll still get to 20 in fantasy. Yeah, it's just so underrated what the play call. Like, there's two, three times a game there's just like a wide open receiver for Caleb to hit for 40 yards.

1:38:45Yeah. So.

1:38:48Bill Simmons:I'm in. All right, what's your number one? Number one is just that the elite wide receivers have sucked or been hurt. Like, it's a disaster at wide receiver. And if you look at the top 15 guys drafted, like three of them have been good. And it's Puka, Monroe St. Brown, and Jackson Smith and Jigba. The rest, or a disaster. Brian Thomas and A.J. Brown, it's like DEFCON 1 for those two. Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkie have been super underwhelming. Jamar Chase has not been great because Burrell got hurt. And then you have Tyreek is out for the season. Malik is out for the season. CeeDee Lamb, high ankle sprain.

1:39:22It's just been a disaster. And it was the same way last year. A bunch of wide receivers got hurt last year. And so the lesson is just as all, like wide receivers are always super deep. And there's so many good wide receivers coming into the league now. that you should just be taking quarterbacks and running backs at the top of your draft and just waiting on wide receiver because there's so many good ones. And, you know, the talent is pretty flat. There are actually like a lot of really good wide receivers that you can get pretty deep.

1:39:47Bill Simmons:I think it's hilarious that Keenan Allen is a top 20 fantasy receiver. He was one of those when somebody took him and like, oh, man, you almost felt bad for the pick. Yeah, he didn't even get drafted half the time. Yeah, he got drafted in our knockout league. And I was just like, oh man, that's a reach. He's done. But we see these sometimes. The Pickens one, I think, is the most surprising. Because even Quentin Johnston, he had enough flashes last year and the way they've been using Herbert. I'm not surprised he's putting up stats. I didn't personally like him. But Pickens, I mean, you had him on the Steelers.

1:40:29Bill Simmons:Were you shedding tears when they traded him? No, because we got DK Metcalf and I thought that was a worthy trade-off. Right. You can only have Pickens for three or four years and then he's got to move on, I think, before he gets squirrely. But I mean, the talent, he's incredible. He's like down the field stuff, the contested catch stuff. I mean, even just the amount of balls he caught that didn't land in bounds. Like he has, he's the number one wide receiver of all time with catches that were almost in bounds. Right. He catches everything. I think talent's standpoint, he's great. And honestly, CD getting hurt was like the best thing that ever happened to him because now he's happy and can rack up a bunch of stats.

1:41:02Bill Simmons:He's never had a QB like Dak either. Dak was putting the ball in places where he could do weird pickings things. So if we were doing a fantasy draft right now starting week five and we did snake draft, old school, Jonathan Taylor is the first pick, right? Yeah, the top three are probably Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Puka. And I would take Puka before Bijan. So I'm getting 10 catches, 90 to 140 yards every week, and probably a TD. But then you also have to deal with him going to the medical tent twice a game. That's like the only downside. You just factor that in. It's like, there he is.

1:41:41Bill Simmons:I think he just goes in there to hang out. I think he charges his phone. Yeah. He's doing texts. Yeah, I think he needs a breather. I mean, he catches so many goddamn passes. He needs to take a playoff and relax. Fucking exhausted. So you think Bijan and then drop off after that? I mean, McCaffrey's been pretty good, to be honest, but yeah. you know, it feels like fantasy is gravitating toward this a little more each year, but you know who's nice to have on your team? Josh Allen. Yeah. He's just going to have more points than all the other quarterbacks, and he's not going to get hurt, and it's the most important position out of all the fantasy things, because you can always patch together and grab some weird running back and do this, and oh, RJ Harvey, I'll grab him.

1:42:26Bill Simmons:But Josh Allen just putting up 29 points a week. Can't beat it. Now, Hurts, lamar josh allen it's the state but hertz is an emotional toll with hertz like he had 132 yards yeah but he's just pushing into touchdowns a week he can't it's tough though they had no completions in the second half yeah no you're right about josh though every time somebody drafts josh in fantasy i think it was the week one the ravens game when he had like 30 fantasy points in the fourth quarter alone i got a text from my buddy being like i will be drafting josh josh allen every year for the rest of his career yeah that's how everybody feels when they have him he's like the mo when you're out with a group of friends and somebody orders something and then everyone else gets super jealous of it whatever that is like whatever restaurant you're at you're like oh that looks good i wish i got that person who gets the dessert i should have gotten a dessert damn it the fucking crumble that looks great why didn't i get that all right so that's your number one the the wide receivers just being completely disappointing during a time when we're spending$50 on receivers.

1:43:28Yeah, it's a bloodbath out there. It's absolutely brutal. So just take Josh out.

1:43:31Bill Simmons:Jamar was the first pick in a lot of drafts. In the ringer draft as well, yeah. Well, the funny thing with that is Burrow, who gets hurt every year behind a horrible offensive line, probably not a safe pick. No, I should have known. To be like, oh, I have Chase attached to this guy who's going to just get the shit kicked out of him until he eventually goes in the blue tent. Yeah, but you could have said the same thing about Puka. I mean, Matt Stafford was getting epidurals at his back. Well, that's why Puka fell. Like, Puka was in the, felt like he was in the 30s by the time draft started. I mean, if you really want to be savvy, you should probably trade away Puka because either he or Stafford or both of them are going to get hurt.

1:44:10And you could get, like, a ransom for him, but it's hard to do that.

1:44:13Bill Simmons:He had a really enlightening quote about how important Devontae Adams has been for him, Puka. That felt like a kind of shots fired at Cooper Cup without it being a shots fired. where he was just like, for the moment he got here, you could feel our offense open up and all that. And it's like, eh. Cup was jealous probably because Puka does the same things that Cup did, but Devontae's different. They play different roles so they can coexist more easily than Puka and Cooper Cup. Yeah, he liked Puka, like 2.0'd Cooper Cup, who had the single greatest start to finish wide receiver season in the history of the league.

1:44:45Yeah.

1:44:46Bill Simmons:And was made irrelevant. Robert Redford Month on the Rewatchables. How many of these have you seen? that we're going to do, I think The Sting and Condor are the only two I've seen that we're going to do. And who knows if we're doing Condor? Right, right, right. We don't know that. We have Jeremiah Johnson coming next week. Which I have not seen. I'm going to watch that today. I cannot. I absolutely cannot wait for your take. That's the one, the famous meme, right? Of Redford doing the nod. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. It's sad that that's how I know that movie. Fifth highest grossing movie of 1972. And 50 plus years later, It's been reduced to the nodding meme.

1:45:24Bill Simmons:That's how people know it. That's your generation. It's your fault. Well, we wouldn't know it at all if it wasn't for the meme. True. You wouldn't even know it was on Tubi. Yeah. All right. Say hi to the fantasy guys for us. Good to see you. Thanks. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to my dad. Thanks to Michael Pina. Thanks to Craig Horlbeck. Thanks to Eduardo and Gau as well. And I'm going to be back Thursday. Maybe Wednesday? Definitely one more podcast. Who knows? Might be back tomorrow night if anything crazy happens in Red Sox Yankees. I will see you later in the week.

1:46:15Bill Simmons:Must be 21 plus in President Slick States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-887-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY. in New York. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents. Managing your money works the same way.

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