An Epic Spurs-Thunder Series, Cleveland Survives, and the Knicks' Moment Is HERE With Zach Lowe

23:16Bill Simmons:And then Evan Mobley sitting there 33 to one. Right. Not against it. Got to get my app up. Not against that one. because in my opinion, Mobley will be the, that's the Cavs guy to watch in a series like this. If he's awesome, that's a differentiator for them. I'm going to dig in a little bit tomorrow. Obviously, it's a quick turnaround. Game one is Tuesday in New York. I will hopefully be there.

23:46I'll dig in on the matchups a little bit, but the Knicks, OGN and OB practiced and said he's feeling much better and this is not like the hamstring injury from two years ago. that's a huge thing i just think they're better i think they're a better team they they they i think we're two and one or three and one against the calves this year now i will say the last time they played i've said this over and over again i think the calves figured out a little bit something on who should match up with who and how all that should work defensively and and gave the knicks a little bit of trouble and i think they they've discovered a little bit of of that kind of stuff but the knicks are just better and like to your point i'm surrounded by knicks fans they are absolutely giddy and I'm like you should be giddy this is by far the best chance I like I'm I never thought I would ever have a hometown finals as long as I would be doing this the finals where I didn't have to travel for half of it I just never even deemed it possible I just never which of these teams is going to suddenly be competent enough to actually win three playoff rounds this is by far the most likely it's ever been to the point that if the Knicks don't win this next series, I think it's going to be absolutely crushing for their fan base and their whole organization.

24:58Bill Simmons:I don't know how crushing will be because they had the will to live for the rest of their lives crushed out of them by the Halliburton shot and that Pacers come back. So they're already dead inside. I can't believe you. You have to mention that? They're dead inside. They have no emotion left. How about the Paul Reed shot, by the way? Can we just, from game six that hung on there. It was like a golf shot that just hung on the lip for five seconds. It was like a Tiger Woods where he's doing the fist pump after. We're going to take a break. A couple more storylines for that Cavs-Knicks series in one second.

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26:06Bill Simmons:21-plus select states are 18-plus DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit at ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. For small businesses, guess what? Every hire matters. Luckily, there's LinkedIn Hiring Pro. Great name. It's designed to help you hire with confidence by surfacing only the right candidates. And guess what? Hiring Pro streamlines the entire process from drafting jobs to shortlisting candidates and conducting AI-powered screening interviews. And its conversational interface lets you describe what you need in plain language.

26:47Bill Simmons:Hire right the first time. Why not just do it the first time? Get started by posting your first job for free at linkedin.com slash Simmons. That's me. That's linkedin.com slash Simmons. Terms and conditions apply. So one thing I was thinking about with the Knicks and the Cavs, and it's off of Minnesota falling short in their series about these little windows that teams have that can't get over the hump teams. The teams that they win a few playoff series, they might even make a conference finals. They have like a three or four year window and they just can't make the finals, right? And I think the most, my favorite example of this team ever was the Mark Price Cavaliers that with Doherty and Nance and all those dudes, I thought those were really, really good teams.

27:38Bill Simmons:It's really unfair that they never made a finals. They had some bad injury luck. Like, you know, they obviously crossed paths with Michael Jordan at the worst possible times and the Pistons and then Price got hurt. But I just thought that was a really good team. You look back, you're like, oh, that was an error, but they never got over the hump. And I think the Knicks and the Cavs are like that right now, where the Cavs, they've had this Mitchell little mini era here where they were able to get lucky with the Mobley being there and being able to draft him. And then the Jared Allen trade, you're basically getting him for nothing.

28:10Bill Simmons:and then Garland initially turned him harder but this is their window right now I feel like and then the next same thing where they went all in with the bridges they were able to dump Randall at the perfect time we're going to talk about him later they get Towns that trade turned out really well and this is the window right now for them and this is why when I think about this series for one of these teams whoever loses this I don't think it'll be a well we made the conference finals. I think this is like, this was our fucking chance to make the finals. So there's real stakes here that not that there isn't always stakes for the conference finals, but I feel like this is like a four year road to this series.

28:50Yeah. I mean, look, if you're right and one of these teams comes out feeling disappointed to the point where they view change as necessary, like certainly the Bucs are hoping for just maximum disappointment around the top whatever teams in the league, including these two teams and it is like i talked about this last week like imagine if cleveland comes back and wins the series and they did like what does that mean for harden's future with the team it seems to solidify it right does it solidify mitchell's but like you're right if they just get rolled if one of these it's different if you go to seven and it's just like both teams played really really well it's a heroic awesome like just and they're like you know it's a tip your cap kind of series but if it's 4-1 and we get exposed on the glass like mitchell robinson four years ago exposed us on the glass.

29:36So 4-1 and Cat has another existential crisis week. Like the Cat thing goes back this way where he's fouling and like all of a sudden you just can't recapture whatever it is you had against Philadelphia and at the end of the Atlanta series. Like you're right, there could be, there could be certainly disappointment to the point of like, all right, we got to pivot. I mean, we'll see how it goes, I guess.

29:57Bill Simmons:The problem with some of this stuff, I remember you talking about this when Dame was leaving Portland about like, they made the 2019 Western Finals. That's a win. They were one of the four teams left. But the whole Dame era in Portland, I don't look at it as like, oh man, they were rolling. You know, we go back and we look at that Western Finals and it's like, I was a little fluky. The Houston and Golden State was really the Western Finals that year. But that was an era. And I was thinking about the get over the hump teams. The grit and grind Grizzlies is a great one. made the finals. I mean, made the conference finals.

30:37Bill Simmons:Made the conference finals, right? They put some series together. They had some upsets. It was a distinct era. They could never get over the hump. Lob City Clippers. Oh, boy. Paul George Pacers. Your favorite, the Coach Bud Hawks. Blazers. The Harden Rockets is probably the most successful example of just a ton of success, but never actually made the finals. The Celtics, pre-COVID Celtics, basically, 16 to 20, where they made the Eastern finals, I think four to five times. That whole year in the Eastern Conference basketball, it was just Cleveland and a bunch of whatever. Yeah. And Knicks and Cavs now.

31:16Bill Simmons:And then the Wolves. And we'll talk about the Wolves later because I want to do what do you do. But sometimes being one of the final four teams is okay. I think we just overreact to where it's like, we didn't win the title. What do we do? And it's like, I don't know, man. There's 30 teams in this league. there's a lot of good players. Like if I'm the Cavs, I'm like, all right, this was pretty good. We were down 2-0 in the second round. We made it. Like maybe let's cool the jets on all the panic stuff. Now, if they had lost tonight, I would have had five trades for you. I totally agree. Making the conference finals is really hard and there's only four teams left and you're one of them and you've learned something about yourself.

31:55You're going to be better off for it the next year when you're in the playoffs. And, you know, you were doing the hump thing. Like I was like, where's the hump? because a lot of these teams you were mentioning made the conference finals, but not the finals. And I guess that's the finals. I mean, that's like, and again, like, what are you going to tear down a conference finals team? Because now you have decisions to make and the salary cap forces you to make decisions and all that kind of stuff. But it's hard to get that far in the playoffs. And, you know, I mean, the West is just a completely different animal.

32:22Like Minnesota loses to San Antonio in the second round of the playoffs. I'm supposed to panic about now there are things to panic about. Like Julius Randle disappearing is a thing to panic about. Rudy Gobert kind of sneakily disappeared in the last two or three games. Sneakily? Well, I mean, he's... That was a catastrophe. Okay. I was trying to be nice for Rudy. Because everyone just... He's just the punching bag of the NBA.

32:42Bill Simmons:No, I know he's a punching bag, but... I'm trying to be nice. I'm trying to be nice. He's being bullied. He's been bullied too long. I'm trying to be nice to him. Putting that aside, if I'm Minnesota, I'm really scared that one of the people I have to go through in my conference, Victor Rembenyama, just completely annihilated my center. To the point... I don't know what to do with that. To the point, and Stan was making... it on the broadcast that they were they and i talked about it last week too on my pod they were rejiggering their rotations the wolves were to have rudy in the game only when wendy was not in the game um not good or or limited yeah so look but it's hard to make the conference finals the calves are pretty young and uh yeah i don't know why there was something else i was gonna say and i forgot but it's it's it's hard to make the conference finals with the trait so we talk about they're obviously not panicked.

33:29Bill Simmons:They're young. Dern's 22. Cade's in his mid-20s. There's a trade for a second score. Let's try to get Cade some help. No question. There's probably a Kawhi Leonard conversation. There's probably a we don't have enough to get Jalen Brown conversation, but let's at least kick the tires. There's a, hey, do we make our version of the Desmond Bain Mikael Bridges trade for Trey Murphy and see if New Orleans is interested in that. But I think it's somebody like that. I think it's, I think they have to find a reliable second score that is not Tobias Harris. And I thought Tobias had a good season. And I actually really liked the way he played the regular season, but the playoffs speak for itself, unfortunately.

34:13The question that you're going to have to face is what's the salary that you're throwing in? I mean, you can throw in all your picks, I guess, and that's pretty valuable, throwing in all your picks, all your swaps. They got everything, but I got to get up to a number, right? Like if I'm, the names you're mentioning I got to get up to even trade Murphy, a big number.

34:30Bill Simmons:They have Robinson, who's 16 a year, the next two, but he's only$2 million guaranteed this year, so they can get out of that. I think they could trade Stewart pretty easily, and I think that's somebody that teams would want. But you just threw Jalen Brown's name in there. The Boston Celtics are not trading finals MVP Jalen Brown for Isaiah Stewart, Duncan Robinson, and a bunch of Detroit first-round picks. You're not getting a guy like that. They're not. And the problem is they're not getting Kawhi or Trey Murphy for what they have to trade anyway. I think - Unless - I don't - Unless Thompson is involved.

35:04Well, they're not doing that.

35:04Bill Simmons:In some sort of capacity. They're not doing that. But that's the other thing. They have to figure out, do they extend Thompson? Do they give him, you know, do they jump the gun on the RFA season and take it out, basically? I mean, look, we could get a lot of pretty - I mean, we had the four guys who just hung in restricted free agency forever last year because there was nothing out there for them. We've seen the Rockets already play pretty tough with some of their internal free agents and just say, we're not giving you the max. How about this? And if you don't take it, we'll just happily negotiate against you in restricted free agency.

35:39And I think more teams should do that. I mean, I hate restricted free agency. It sucks for the players, but it's a rule. And I don't think teams have adequately taken advantage of it. And I think it's really, like if you can chip 8 to 10 million a year off some of these contracts, again, it sucks for the players, but it's a weapon that you have collectively bargained to have. And I like...

36:01Bill Simmons:It also really hurts the flexibility of being able to fix your roster. Once you do that extension, you're poison pill. Look, these are just the rules. I have to live in the unit. I can think about other rules, but these are the rules that exist now. And under those rules, I'm not extending Asar Thompson now unless he's willing to take a pretty big discount. And if I'm Asar Thompson's agent, I'd say like, oh no I want the max it's 25 % and like then we're not negotiating then we'll go to we'll take it to restrictive agency if but if a Sar Thompson's agent asked that or said that I would cut a 45 minute video of him missing eight footers and be like we're not giving you the max and here's our 45 minute answer on that well I think that would make an eight footer I think can you make an eight footer I don't know if that would go over well I think that would be perceived as rude what what were the backyard basketball one-on-one games between the Thompson twins?

36:54Bill Simmons:Like ferocious. I wouldn't want to be a part of those games. Just incredible. Is that why they both can't shoot? Because the other one was so great defensively. They never figured out how to make an open shot. Just four hour games. And people like, we got to eat dinner. I know it's two, two to 11, but we dinner is ready. It's getting cold. Can we just call it at three? It's like two, two cheetahs just fighting, unable to gain upper ground on each other. I'm going to just quickly give you my I had some Cleveland content in case they lost about what would happen I was really excited about some of this I wrote down in all caps LeBron is looming I think we can close the door now for the LeBron comes back to Cleveland hey guys I'm a former champ I'm here to help what if they lose what if they get swept I mean I don't think they would what if it's 4-1 and it's just it ends like with a whimper really just close it or just closing it what's the golf like in Cleveland?

37:48Bill Simmons:Because I think that's going to be the number one determiner for him. Probably not great for a large percentage of the year. I think he has to stay in California. Yeah. I had some Mitchell trades though. Okay. Wow. Let's say, how about this? If Mitchell gets swept, if they, if the Cavs get swept, I'm just trying to figure out what his value is. Fourth pick Chicago is Chicago's not doing that. Right. I would, I would think not new GM, new, new lease on life. Let's get it. Let's get a cornerstone. New guys, young guy. But Brooklyn, sixth pick, which I think is for sale. They were the first team that came to my mind when you just started.

38:22Bill Simmons:So sixth pick, Traore, and a future first. Call it in. Sacramento, seventh pick with Levine. And I get another Sacramento pick. And then Atlanta, eighth pick with Dyson Daniels. Something there. He'd be very good on Atlanta. I mean, he'd be very good anywhere. But there would have been a really interesting discussion to be had of Donovan Mitchell, almost 30, eligible to sign just one of these extensions. That's just going to be a gigantic amount of money if it's a max extension going into his mid-30s. With a playoff record that I think, by the way, has been a little bit underrated as he's come under some scrutiny in this series.

39:04I think he's been pretty goddamn good in the playoffs. And there's been a couple of series the last two years for the Cavs where he felt like the only one. He was like the bus driver and just the only one that was really up for a fight.

39:18Bill Simmons:Orlando Game 7 was a good one, too. And he was great tonight. But there still would have been an interesting discussion. Like, you know, small guard, 30 plus, 30 into 33, 34, 35. I want to pay him$70 million. And he's never made the conference finals. And that discussion is at least forestalled for now. the bigger issue for me with that kind of money is do you make anyone better which he was not doing during the playoffs but he did tonight i did get uh got an email earlier today from alex taylor this was before we knew the result who said being a calves fan is a lot like having an elderly relative you're taking care of i always have to watch and i'm rooting for them but i kind of can't wait for this shit to be over with that's a dark email that is um yeah i think that's where the calves that's where the calves fans are mentally i guess i needed a trigger warning for that that was awful alex taylor geez alex taylor um and then this one i got before game seven from brit pierce about um watching james harden push off on every drive and flop all over the floor the best playoff moment this year has to be dean wade slipping on harden's sweat spot and tobias getting the run out dunk the referee should be embarrassed for allowing the ship for two decades that would have been if the calves had lost that would have been the signature play But they won, and now nobody will remember it.

40:29There also would have been, like, I'm sure there was an understanding between James Harden and the Cleveland Cavaliers about what would come next when he has this player option for next year. And the Clippers, there was clearly an understanding about what would and would not come next with the Clippers. And when there is an understanding of that nature, James Harden tends to change teams and find one where he finds a better understanding. But if they had just flamed out in this series, and by the way, he was 2 of 10 today. It's not like he covered himself in glory in this game. He just didn't turn the ball over a lot.

40:58Bill Simmons:I liked it. I thought he was good. Two for 10 was deceiving. I do think, and again, I'm sure they've already kind of talked about it, but I would have been like, can you just opt into your player option and we can just wash our hands of this? Because he's getting old in front of my eyes. I don't think that's what happens. I think the player option's 43. Yeah. No, what's going to happen is he's going to opt out and get a longer deal. But I'm saying if they flame out in the series and he goes down like he's gone down at other Game 7s before, if I'm the Cavs, I'm like, I don't know, man. How many more years of this?

41:33I know we traded Garland.

41:34Bill Simmons:Yeah, but don't you want to do, what if it was like 27 and 27? Is he going to take that? I guess. I guess he would. But he was in the, what draft was he in? 2009? He's old. He's getting old. Is anyone, it's just him and Curry from that draft now, right? Is there anybody else from that draft? I don't know. You're better at the draft stuff than I am. I think that was. but and you do get to you do get to have him as a trade ship in case you have one of those meetings that doesn't go well and then he gets traded to another place well the question is is this the third straight team he felt like he was wink wink promise something that then did not materialize yeah i did i didn't sense um i didn't sense a lot of empathy for uh daryl moray from the james harden camp uh when the news of daryl moray's firing was rippling through the combine in chicago last week.

42:22Bill Simmons:I want to invite Daryl on my podcast and just pour truth serum into him, get him to tell all kinds of stuff. With the painting of Hardin being in the background, do you think he still has the painting? Remember the Ramona Schalbert wrote that piece and it was like, sit in the living room stands this painting of commission from this artist for this amount of money. And it's James Hardin doing this. And then it's a quote from Daryl being like, yes, he's my muse. We will be forever connected. We hugged on the tarmac all those years ago. Well, when he has his podcast on The Ringer, maybe James will be one of the first-time guests on the Daryl Moore show.

42:55The Daryl and Doc show?

42:57Bill Simmons:The Daryl and Doc show would be amazing. I don't think that one will happen. I don't know if there's a lot of love. The mismatch part two? The mismatch 2.0? Yeah, that would be more than a mismatch. I don't see those two getting together for a pod. All right, Knicks, Knicks Cavs. Let's do it. are you well you'll do Tuesday morning so you'll be able to do a pick on that series so I won't step on your podcast listen to Zach's pod I'm gonna pick the Knicks there's no amount of film study or whatever that I'm doing tomorrow that is gonna make me pick the Cavs I'm picking the Knicks it's just a matter of how many games I would lean right now toward Knicks in five just because I think Mitchell will have one game when he goes nuts that's usually usually what happens with him they'll have one game where everything goes right would be my guess, but I don't, I just think the Knicks, it's weird.

43:50Bill Simmons:I it's, we have three classes of teams this year, not two, as we get into the final four, because we have this OKC San Antonio all the way up here. I think we have the Knicks here, but punchers chance of being able to hang in a series against either of those teams. No question. And then probably the Cavs here. I think those are the three levels. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think the Knicks could win the championship. I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't pick, I'm not going to pick them over either of Western Conference teams. But if you told me it's a 25 % chance they could win one of those series, that sounds reasonable to me.

44:21Bill Simmons:I think the Knicks winning the championship... Oh, this is going to get cut out in a social media video. I'm fine with it. I think the Knicks winning the championship is the biggest thing left in any sport other than the Bills, Vikings, or Detroit Lions winning a Super Bowl. And I probably left out another team where their fans are going to get mad at me. But when you think about the Knicks not winning since 73, but the generations of fans and the drought of 20 years, and there's just so many parallels to me with the Red Sox pre-04.

45:01Bill Simmons:Just the emotion that will come out of that, we cannot... I don't think there's another basketball team that would have it. And there's some that it's unrealistic because the Sacramento Kings, as long as they have the current owners, will never win the title. so we can't even be like, oh, in Sacramento, it's like, we'll never know because they're not going to win. Phoenix, a little bit just because of all their tough losses, but other, I just think the Knicks have the most fans. New York's the biggest city we have. Generations of fans going back to the 50s and grandfathers and great-grandfathers and I just think it's the biggest thing we have.

45:34Well, look, I mean, outside the arena is already a complete shit show after every game and I mean that mostly affectionately but also like leave J.R. Smith alone and leave poor Brian win Horace alone this year if he comes to town. It's already insane there. And yeah, I mean, they're the Knicks. I mean, this is, they are an absolutely iconic team. They're a New York's team, and New York is a big, gigantic city. I would throw out, like, the Timberwolves-Vikings twofer in Minnesota would be pretty huge.

46:02Bill Simmons:Well, how about this? Minnesota hasn't won a title of any kind since 91, and I don't even think, the Twins, I don't even think they've been in the finals in any sport since 91. I'm pretty sure that's true I mean my North Star history is a little muddled but the thing is like I know there's been a bunch of teams that have had droughts or have never won at all like the Maple Leafs fans are listening to me right now like what about us the Knicks are the biggest city in America like they have the most fans the point is like they've had 53 years of just getting their teeth kicked in and they have just a shitload of fans so that's why I would make that argument can I give you one more the Knicks are at 40 by the way I'm aware and we beat the Yankees today and come from behind the bottom of the 10th win to take the Subway Series yet again.

46:48Can I just throw one other team at you? Yeah. I am curious to know what modern Atlanta would feel like if they got a team that they really felt like this could be a championship team. Like the Bud Hawks, I think everybody knew they're going to run into the Cleveland buzzsaw at some point. and this was like a very fun team and a very fun story for like the basketball seat, right? Like, oh, they pass the ball. They do all this cool stuff with Korver. Like, what if they got a, like a cool ass dude, like, like Jalen, I mean, Trey Young was,

47:20Bill Simmons:but then like Anthony Edwards, whatever, don't, don't do that. Like University of Georgia, Georgia native Anthony Edwards. And had a team where you like actually believe that it's, that seems like they would go crazy there. That would be a pretty good one. Hey, listen, lots of teams having one. Indiana get back there after the Halliburton coming so close and Halliburton going down like that would be another one but um I just think the Knicks have the they've so many fans and some but I you and I I mean it's a little less fair for you because you're in the vicinity I'm in the heartlands we just I just know so many Knicks and it's like all they want this is it um all right I'm going Knicks in five okay this is my pick I don't know what the odds are let's uh let's talk Spurs OKC oh my god you um you were asking me what I thought the most anticipated series has been since you and I have known each other which was 2011 I tried to hire you it didn't work out and then you finally finally came to Grantland the next year um you sent me all these series that you thought were in the running for most anticipated playoff series trying to trying to get my headspace back into what it was what it felt like before those series started yeah kirk and i talked about this for a scratch on tuesday and i said that i felt like this was the biggest series in eight years but i didn't really put a ton of thought into it and then when you and i were talking about it i think the weirder thing to me is that we haven't had like a mammoth series like this in eight years and i don't really know all the reasons for that because I do think we have a lot of talent in the 2020s.

49:06Bill Simmons:I don't know if it's bad luck or I don't really have an answer, but I know that this is, this feels like the single biggest series we've had at least since the first Cavs Warriors one. But what would you go? What was the top five that you landed on? First of all, my theories as to what you just the void that you just talked about. I have a few theories. Let's hear it. No, let's dive into it. I'm curious. I think the pandemic fucked up like two and a half seasons. They just didn't, not that they don't, don't Lakers fans, I'm not saying that. It just didn't, they didn't, the games didn't feel the same, obviously.

49:40I'll say it.

49:41Bill Simmons:Well, no, don't be. The games are in a fucking bubble with cardboard cutouts of fans. Like that was insane. And then the next season there was attendance restrictions all over the league. It just didn't. And then I think the parody, like we've had seven champions in seven years, we just haven't had these like two colossuses who are rising next to each other and meeting in the playoffs over and over again, 60 plus win, just like juggernauts. And now we're going to have that. I'll give you my top five. I made my top five. Before you give me the top five. Yeah. I have a point off your point because I'm glad you brought up the COVID.

50:12Bill Simmons:I think that would have been the best and biggest and most anticipated series, but we didn't get it because COVID would have been Lakers, Clippers, first Kawhi year, second LeBron year. They were the two best teams in the league. And we were headed that way. And I remember the weekend before all the COVID shit happened. And I think they might have even played that weekend. And it just was clearly, I remember doing a podcast that Sunday and it was like, this is it, man. We're headed, we've never had the LA versus LA collision course. This is fucking happening. Kawhi was the reigning finals MVP.

50:44Bill Simmons:LeBron had his fastball back. Like Davis was there. We were heading for it and it didn't happen. Streetlights over spotlights. They had, the Clippers had the whole ad campaign that was like, we're the anti-Lakers of LA. It was great. And it just immediately was over for two plus years. We never had the awesome Nuggets kind of, oh my God, Nuggets series either. And probably the closest was that first battle with the Timberwolves when the Timberwolves ended up beating them in game seven. But there wasn't the anticipation for that, like with the Spurs. Anyway. The Nuggets are in a bunch of my honorable mention top 20 anticipated series.

51:21Like I think Thunder Nuggets last year was like, that was a pretty hot series. But again, it wasn't like it was earlier.

51:26Bill Simmons:No, you need like it needs to feel like this is the finals right now. There's big legacy altering stuff. I have two of hopefully the two best guys in the league, but at least two of the best three or four. Like you got to check a lot of boxes with this, which is what this series does. So what do you got? My top five. I did this from LeBron signing in Miami until now. Top five most anticipated series. I sent you a list. I have like 20 finalists. My top five were, I'll go in reverse order. Number five, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Western Conference Finals 2012. It was like the old guys versus the young guys.

52:03The Spurs had acquired D out at the end of that, like the middle of that season, and they were on like a 20-game winning streak going into that series. Killed the Clippers. Killed them. I think they had won 20 straight games after going up 2-0 in that series. And then the Thunder were like, oh, we're just younger and more athletic and we're actually ready. and they just wiped the Spurs out four in a row. So that was number five.

52:24Bill Simmons:By the way, on that 2012, which was a great basketball season, and it was right after the lockout. So it was all condensed, sped up, and there was just a lot of basketball happening. And the thing that sucked is we lost Eric Rose at the beginning of that playoffs. But we had Chicago, Miami, Boston on one side, and then we had this Lob City team that came out of nowhere because Chris Paul ended up on the Clippers. You had this proud Spurs team trying to get their throne back. You had OKC, you know, ascending. And then you had, there was one more, right? OKC, Clippers. No, that's it. Those three.

53:02Bill Simmons:So we had six teams. Grit and grind Memphis was like floating around there. Yeah, kind of lurking. But yeah, that was a, I thought both of those Thunder series, because Heat Thunder in the next round was also really great. But I like the non-finals for this. Okay. I'm with you on that one. Number four most anticipated series, Warriors Thunder Western Conference Finals 2016 ends up being the Klay Thompson Game 6 series. So I had that higher. I had that second on my list. Okay. Because it was 73-9. It felt like it was Durant's last. Maybe he was getting out of there. Maybe he was going to Washington.

53:40Bill Simmons:Maybe he was going to Boston. The Golden State buzz had started, but most people didn't know whether to believe it or not. but it just felt like there was something momentous happening ahead of us uh i'm not done with that team uh that year yet on my list uh number three out of a bunch of candidates from this two-year era uh the 2014 finals heat spurs two um i think just the happiest i've ever been covering basketball was being at the back-to-back heat spurs finals just so many awesome players awesome storylines the vengeance storyline in the second one that the one out the 2014 one after the ray allen shot the year before broke the spurs hearts uh and he favored for that series too which people forget i think that's the air conditioning game is in that series oh yeah the air conditioning goes out uh i honorable mention i just think the spurs the spurs thunder conference finals from that year is also awesome um that's my number that's my number three by the way clippers clippers thunder that year was awesome too right wasn't that 14 honorable mention not so awesome for the clippers but honorable mention uh the clippers had quite a dramatic playoff run that year with donald sterling happening right before uh yeah number two the 2016 nba finals 73 win warriors lebron and the calves just the the rematch after the first one had kairi injured kevin love injured and it ended up being not quite a fair fight as the warriors won their first title and number one just slightly over that 2018 Western Conference Finals Warriors versus the Rockets team with Chris Paul and James Harden and they switched everything and were built to beat the Warriors and actually had them on the ropes the Durant Warriors, the invincible Warriors that had gone 16-1 in the playoffs the year before.

55:26I think that was my number one.

55:28Bill Simmons:It's a great list. So I had five of the six bolded. The one you didn't mention that I think has lost the history and was fucking awesome was Warriors Rockets 2019 when Durant was hurt. And it felt like it was, we were headed toward the end of this Warriors run. That was awesome. Um, weren't probably weren't getting Durant back. It was Houston's best chance to take them down. And then Curry had that incredible second half. I think it was game six. Uh, what do you have like 30 in the second half? I think it's zero in the first half. And it's also not just one of my favorite Curry games. It's one of my favorite Curry and Draymond together games because they just run the same two-man game on the right side of the floor over and over again down the stretch.

56:15But they do six different things out of it in six different possessions. And the Rockets just don't even know what the hell hit them. And it's one open shot after another.

56:24Bill Simmons:18 Western Finals is a great one because it kind of did feel like the finals. LeBron had nobody left on the Cavs that season. that weird Celtic team that didn't even have Kyrie and Hayward almost made the finals came within a couple of mysteries and a couple we had that like a couple hundred but we also had the Chris Paul could this be it and then he gets hurt in game four that was an awesome series for this decade you you wrote down Clippers Mavs 21 Bucks Nets 21 Nuggets Suns 23, Sixers Celtics 23, Wolves Nuggets 24, Nuggets Clips 25, and Thunder Nuggets 25. The only one I think could be in the discussion is Bucks Nets.

57:14Bill Simmons:But I can't remember when the injury started, but it was Giannis coming off two straight MVPs. It was your greatest theoretical team of all time, the Nets. It kind of felt like whoever won that series was making the finals. And as it turned out, it was the correct assumption because the other series was Hawks-Sixers, which was the end of Ben Simmons' career as we knew it. But Bucks-Nets was, I think we were excited for that, and then the injuries just started coming. Yeah, I was trying to remember, trying to put myself back into the space of like, I must have been pretty pumped for that series.

57:49Bill Simmons:COVID was back at that point. It was just, 21 was weird. I don't really remember a ton from 21. And by the way, I now remember, as I'm going through the whole list of my honorable mentions, The very first one on my honorable mentions list, chronologically, is the 2011 NBA Finals Heat Mavs. And we were talking before about how making the conference finals and losing should not be treated as some catastrophic failure where I have to upend my entire team and pivot in a different direction. And what I forgot to say and now remember to say is that Mavericks team is the quintessential example of that.

58:22Yeah, they tweaked here and there, but they failed in the playoffs over and over and over again with Dirk, often in high-profile ways. And they just took the attitude of, it's not that bad to be a 50-58 win team every year and just be good and good and good and maybe hit great in the right year where we get the right matchups, the right chemistry, whatever, and maybe we'll win a title. And they won the title, and it's one of the most beloved title teams of the last quarter century of the NBA. They are the poster team for, you don't always have to like blow it up or trade three people when you're running into a wall in the conference finals or wherever over and over again.

58:58Bill Simmons:So what are the 22 Warriors the poster boy of? Because they won the title anyway, even though they should have made trades and they didn't because they were doing the two timelines bullshit. Well, I think they're the poster thing of like, if you have a top 12 player of all time, wherever you think Steph is, and he's in his prime, just keep trying to win. and they did. Basketball was really good from 12 to 14. We just had a lot of good teams and a lot of good players. I think the 2010 Celtic Lakers rematch dwarfs all of these. I think for a variety of reasons, it also feels like it feels like the end of basketball and the start of this new era of basketball, ironically, in this new decade when the threes started to come in And then the new Durant moved up and Curry and all of these, LeBron went to Miami.

59:50Bill Simmons:It just feels like basketball shifts as a sport. And that Celtic Lakers series, incredible anticipation, but also feels like the end of a specific generation at the same time. I remember thinking at the time, and I was not at, this is 17 years ago, whatever, 16 years ago, not as well-versed in like the early, early history of the NBA as you were then. I am now. So you can talk about the 69 finals, whatever. Great. I remember thinking at that time, could you make the argument that this game seven is the biggest game in the history of the NBA? Celtics, Lakers, Lakers trying to close the title gap, Kobe, the big three Celtics going for one last ring when it felt like they should have had another one and never did.

1:00:31And just, I don't think that was a crazy, I mean, I'm sure we could go back and find other candidates for such a lofty designation, but it had to be up there.

1:00:40Bill Simmons:Yeah, there's a couple of finals that I think levitate above the rest of them. 2016 is definitely like that. I mean, that's, you could argue that that might be the biggest one. No, I'm just saying at the time in 2010, I was thinking, is this one game? Obviously, yeah, 2016, that was. No, but I'm saying going into certain series and being like, wow, the stakes just feel higher right now. That's why like if we get a game seven in this first Thunder series. Oh my God. I think we're going to feel that way. right? Cause I know Wemby's 22, but I don't care, man. He's seven foot seven. You got to take it year by year when somebody has got that kind of size.

1:01:18Bill Simmons:And I just, I'm always nervous about injuries with them. And then, okay, see, you know. You just never know. It's really hard to just put title seasons together. It's hard to keep everybody happy. They've done a great job of it. Presti famously. And some of the stuff starting to come out a little about how he approaches player evaluation and stuff, but really thinks about personality, chemistry, wanting to build these guys that are all going to pull for each other. That's why he sees somebody like Jared McCain and he just grabs him. There's like a certain type of person that he values. and they probably had the best chance of anyone of having a long, long run with a tail without any disease and more stuff happening.

1:02:00Bill Simmons:But... Well, you talk about stakes. Like, Shea just won his second MVP in a row today. It was announced. Yep. If he... They go... If they break... Shams somehow scooped everybody, but was it a scoop? Did anyone think Shea was not winning the MVP? Was there one person? I'm sure... no i mean i don't think it was a surprise but i'm sure the league and its broadcast partners preferred that to be or the other broadcast partners preferred that to be out in a different way yeah that wasn't great but but if they break the no repeat streak in the nba now and he wins another finals mvp and they're still pretty young i mean like the the historical stakes for him and for this thunder team are are now very big and they they will begin to put if they win another title and they break the no repeat run they will begin to put themselves into position with another title whether it's next like if they win three out of four or four out of seven or something they will get into some pretty big historical discussions and like that starts now that starts with like this this title and this is the first time they mean they've it feels like they've barely participated in the playoffs it's been so easy for them and now we're here yeah back-to-back finals MVP, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Kobe, LeBron, and Durant.

1:03:18Bill Simmons:That's the entire list. And then back-to-back regular season MVPs, Russell, Will, Kareem, Moses, Bird, Magic, Jordan, Duncan, Nash, LeBron, Curry, Giannis, and Jokic. The Giannis second MVP, got to reinvestigate that one at some point. Well, look, no one reinvestigates an MVP race like you. I mean, you got a whole team under you. I think I voted for Giannis, but now it's like when they always talk about that LeBron winning up MVPs, that might have been the shaky one that he should have taken. I think he finished second. I'd have to look back. Yeah, I don't know. I remember voting for Giannis both times.

1:03:57Bill Simmons:So anyway, the people who have done the back-to-back regular season and finals MVP, it's not a long list. Also, speaking of MVP, Jokic got second place. He officially top two MVP six straight years. Him, Bird, and Russell. That's the whole list. Wow. I'm surprised. I thought it would be a little closer in the voting than it was. Yeah, 83 first placers for Shea, 10 for Joker, and five for Wemby. So you thought Joker would get more votes? Who do you think was going to get more votes? I thought Jokic would snag like 10 more first place votes or would just be a little bit less of a route. than it was.

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1:06:19Bill Simmons:Have you eaten yet? Order now or visit a Panda Express near you. I have a segment I didn't tell you about called Spurs OKC Legacy Check. Okay, well, let's check some legacies out. Just mentioned Shea. Okay. He's really going for something unique here with the back-to-back and finals MVP and run MVP. Chet? There's seeds of the Wemby feud going really since like 2023. It's like, something's here that doesn't seem like there's a lot of love between these two guys and now they have a chance to really go at it. I think he's solidified himself as the second best Thunder guy. He's probably the second best defender in the league, second best center.

1:07:08He's their best chance to maybe nullify Wemby a little bit.

1:07:13Bill Simmons:I don't know if Wemby can be nullified. It might be impossible. Well, let's say he's definitely not the second best center in the NBA. I'm sorry, that was a joke. Yes, third best center. Yeah, I mean, this goes back to before they were even in the NBA, the international basketball scene. There's a lot of Wemby Chet history. And I'm just going to say, let's see how Jalen Williams looks before. I mean, it doesn't really matter. They're both awesome. But before we definitively say that Chet has now surpassed him as the second best player in the Thunder, I mean, this was a dude who was like, oh my God, is he going to steal finals MVP at the last minute here?

1:07:50Is he still in the league? Yeah, he's going to play. He's ready. Oh, I forgot what he looked like. Well, get ready. He's going to look, you're going to see him again.

1:07:59Bill Simmons:he was on my legacy list. I wrote Jalen Williams hyphen. Were you here? Yes, he was there. Do you not remember the finals last year? He was unbelievable. He was awesome. I had him like 12th in my ringer 100. Just like to see him play. Can you play some basketball? Legacy. Sam Presti. Okay. I think a title. getting by this series and then the next series I think officially he becomes one of the great GMs of all time I think it's just official you're talking Arbac and West and Riley Jerry Krause pick anyone but to put that whole Durant run together and not have a quick cut there and then do what he did with this decade he's certainly been the best GM in the league for how many years now the one that people point to yeah i mean 15 i don't know if it's quite that long it's very long time and there's indisputably he's in the gonna go in the pantheon of the best ever to do it yeah aj mitchell best contract in the league bordering on one of the best this century with the way he's playing making three million dollars a year ridiculous trade bait or keep bait for them and in my opinion, hold on to your horses, Zach Lowe.

1:09:26Yeah.

1:09:27Bill Simmons:The single most important Thunder player in this series. Thunderer? Single most important Thunderer for this reason. The Spurs are going to go small and do that three guard thing and try to do speed and unleash their pit bulls and they need Mitchell to be really good. They need him to be as good as he was the last two rounds. They're going to have to play lineups with him and SGA together and a defender and might even have to go a little smaller. And he's just going to have to be good. He's going to have to do what he's done. And we haven't seen him do it at this level. We've seen him do it in the regular season.

1:10:01Bill Simmons:We've seen him do it against in series where they were much better than the other team. This is a whole other level. So we're going to find out. I love that you brought him up. And I think you did for exactly the right reasons. I think it's very much worth noting that he missed three out of the five games the teams played this year. And you felt his absence in the games he wasn't there. just the secondary ball, the more ball handling you could, I mean, the Spurs secret sauce against the Thunder was we have a ton of ball handling and enough that we can, A, get into the paint against your defense and B, not collapse in a hail of turnovers because we have reliable guards and that's what you feast on.

1:10:35But the Thunder can play similar lineups now that A.J. Mitchell has become A.J. Mitchell to this degree. And I think we're going to see, like, I've been waiting for the Thunder death lineup all year and we've barely seen it. And it's Shea, A.J. Mitchell, Caruso, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren at the end of some games or in crunch time of some games. We've had glimpses of it. One of the glimpses was in one of the Spurs games. I was rewatching all of it. I think that's an awesome lineup that if we see everyone healthy, we'll see a little bit more of it, hopefully, in this series than we've seen. What's the lineup again?

1:11:07Shea, Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Caruso, Chet. It's like, I want to close. Can I close games with that?

1:11:13Bill Simmons:So I have enough defense with Caruso and Chet. But I have a little more offense than basically AJ in the Dort spot. Three super dynamic ball handlers in Mitchell, Shea, and J-Dub. And I just think, look, there's no Dort, so you lose a little heft, right? And there's no Cason Wallace, who's sort of your defensive ace in the hole at all times. But just something to watch for. Because the other thing with the Spurs is this is a fun series for them because they can play the Wemby with smaller guys lineup. They can play them with three guards and a swing. you know play them with three and a half guards whatever they want and it's not like OKC would be like OK we're going big and you're making they're just not gonna be able to do it so I do think the guards versus guards thing which was a huge advantage for San Antonio OKC has the guards so I have Mitchell Alex Alex Caruso role player hall of fame is like in reach now for him absolutely this would be three titles for him I think they really need him in this series specifically because I want to see who do you think guards Harper for them?

1:12:18I mean, I think it's going to all of these are just going to be a combination of tons of different people depending on who else is in the game.

1:12:24Bill Simmons:Let's say end of the game, they go Fox, Harper, Castle, Bissell, and Wemby. I mean, they rarely play that. The Spurs rarely put all three of the guards on the floor together. It just hasn't happened very much this year. but sure we can we can they were doing a little more in the playoffs though just a little but not very much because champagny plays a ton keldin johnson plays a ton um yeah and uh yeah but so and like i well this is the i mean this is the interesting chess match of the series is right like i think we would the thunder are awesome in any configuration and we have not seen hardly any of hartenstein and holmgren together against the spurs with wemby on the floor so those those two the double big, the best double big they have.

1:13:10Bill Simmons:You can't. You got to play shooters. They've only played 33 minutes against the Spurs in five games. It was really only in three games. And if you go back and watch, a lot of them were against Cornette and Harrison Barnes because Wemby came off the bench in two of the games that they played. And so they start and Wemby comes in. When it's Wemby is the only big man on the floor for the Spurs and Chet is the only big man on the floor for the Thunder, I just think the chess match that's going to evolve over the course of this series is going to be fascinating starting with do they guard each other and if so how often because the thunder have put chet on you know harrison barnes keldin johnson basically not wemby and the spurs have kind of toggled between wemby sure you can guard chet you can guard anybody but we like you have like guard caruso and rove guard dort and rove like i i just think that chess match is gonna be super interesting and will dark guard dort guard wemby everyone is that something that will happen dort guarded fox a lot so their base their base alignment when it was one big versus one big if they're if they had one that was used the most frequently it was like dort on fox and jalen williams on when binyama to switch that pick and roll and and they would have the bigs elsewhere on the floor but dort will guard when be some caruso guarded when be some like they'll throw everybody they'll put hartenstein on them now and then like particularly i think when the the starters are against the starters it's just going to be super interesting to see who guards who it's going to be i i don't I'd love to know how many people OKC is going to actually settle on as the series goes along.

1:14:42Bill Simmons:Because they were basically playing 10 and sometimes even 11 in the last two rounds. But I think that gets narrowed down. I think they probably end up at nine would be my guess, right? That's usually what it is. I'll tell you, I can't tell if it was because OKC was, you know, like AJ Mitchell was out for a bunch of games, three of the games, as I mentioned. But a guy that saw a lot of the floor against the Spurs in the regular season games, and who has not played hardly at all in the playoffs, is Kenrich Williams. And I do wonder if he's someone that they look at as, do we try him at the five a little bit, or we like his shooting at the four next to Chet?

1:15:22He guarded Wemby a bit. I wonder if he's a guy that is going to get a shot to play a little bit in the series.

1:15:30Bill Simmons:wambi i have for legacy as this would be the single craziest ascent since 1977 bill walton pretty much if you're just like hey i'm gonna actually win four straight series and take the title here at age 22 harper is definitely moving into that 1981 mikhail 83 worthy 88 pippen 2003 Manu and Tony where this is just a guy at the beginning of his career who is also a huge chess piece and is somebody that I genuinely think he has a chance to be a hall of fame like top 50 guard there's like house and I were talking about the other day like that like I was there when young Jason Kidd showed up and you know some of the best guards of the last 40 years I've seen the beginning stages I just think he has it like I would bet anything I don't think that's a daring bet he had he absolutely has it he's going to be a star there's a world in which this was a popular debate question as me and everyone at the combine was uh best player from that draft in five years and 10 years is it automatically cooper or is it harper those were the two automatic no i think people would defer to the size that cooper has but i i think harper being the best player in the draft is in play and by the way all the love harper's getting is incredible like he's incredible and the genobley comparisons they're lefties they come off the bench nobody's mentoring him it's an amazing story he has totally stepped up in the playoffs steph castle is averaging 26 and 5 on 49 shooting and 44 on three and just being a gigantic pain in the ass to everyone at every position on defense and he's going to guard sga a lot and like i just can't i just can't wait for that what a show that's going to be i had castle as the next legacy guy um i wrote down horrific haunting of the 2024 top three draft oh my god what is sliding horrific at this point the reed shepherd stuff i mean for teams that have all of them i had them first but but but for teams that have massively high stakes like are ready to win big right now the rockets and the spurs and the spurs didn't quite know that they were going to be ready this fast like that's a huge sliding doors moment in like the the coming history of the west brutal cornet and barnes i was going to say two team champs.

1:17:45Bill Simmons:I was literally going to say, when are we going to get to Cornette's second title? When is that coming up? How about Barnes? Well, but you... Okay. Darren Fox, Escape from Sacramento. This guy was playing on the Vivek Run and Die of Kings 18 months ago and now is in the best series in 10 years. I just watched the Jailbreak, the Jailblazers documentary on Netflix. Escape from Sacramento sounds like the next Netflix or Amazon basketball mini doc. Um, Mitch Johnson versus Dagnall, the most boring, great coach matchup in NBA history. Sure. Can anyone name three things about either of these guys? Mitch Johnson went to Stanford and Mark Dagnall coached the Tulsa Blue.

1:18:28Mark Dagnall, Leventer, Massachusetts.

1:18:29Bill Simmons:Leventer, Massachusetts. I know that. Mitch Johnson, son of John Johnson. Yeah. NBA champ Seattle, um, ended up on the Celtics in 1976 and something got screwed up and I can't remember what happened. and the trade got voided, or the signing, something weird, and they actually had to trade him again to Seattle. But during that brief time, looked at my mom and dad's condo, came into the condo because we were selling the condo, moving to another house, and John Johnson, new member of the Celtic, walked through the condo and six-year-old me almost had a heart attack, or seven-year-old me, however old I was.

1:19:04What a...

1:19:05Bill Simmons:That's my most exciting Mitch Johnson story for you. That's a lot of information about Mitch Johnson's dad. How? long could somebody spend with Mitch Johnson and Dagnall together drinking beers before something fun would happen? Like two hours? No, I bet not that long. Because the Levinster's going to come out of Dagnall at some point. You get a couple people, a couple beers in, it becomes a fun time. One of my college roommates was from Levinster, Chuck LaPasta. LaPasta? Chuck LaPasta. Shout out Chuck. And then last one for me for Legacy Check, Adam Silver. okay the Spurs Knicks series is sitting right there this is your biggest rating series since 2016 Wemby versus the Knicks what what pull some strings remember when the Spurs were the boring killers of ratings even when they were like yeah not anymore immaculate yeah basketball team and now they have freaking like I nobody can take their eyes off this dude people who know nothing about the NBA are asking about him and watching these games and by the way I'm like we're we've barely scratched the surface on just how awesome this series um could be i mean we were texting like i i looked it up because i'm like man the spurs every loss they've had in the playoffs has been like when b got a concussion when they have three aster's losses when he got ejected and i looked it up in the last since february 1st and look everything says the thunder should win right it's experience versus youth the spurs haven't taken their lumps back-to-back champs number one seed, all of that stuff.

1:20:37And their record's incredible. And it's absolutely terrifying to not pick the Spurs because since February 1st, the Spurs are 37-3 playoffs in regular season when Wemby plays at least 15 minutes in a game. 37-3 in half a season. They just don't lose when he plays a real game. They don't lose any games anymore.

1:20:57Bill Simmons:Feels like they're just up 20 all the time, but you could say the same about OKC. I'm picking the Spurs. Okay. They are... What are the odds for this right now? Let's see. So they are plus 220 for the series. I'm taking it. I would do Spurs in 550-1 or Spurs in 6 plus 550 for value. But these are bets. Are you just picking them to win the series? No, I'm picking the Spurs to win. I'm just saying that the value I like are those two. I think asking the Spurs to win a game seven with how young their team is and OKC is a little ambitious. I think it has to be in six. I like Van Gundy mentioned it today.

1:21:46Bill Simmons:It's a great point. I thought Van Gundy's been really good the whole playoff. Shout out to him. Two-man booth, clearly his destiny for broadcasting. Three-man, didn't like him. Two-man, great. Made a great point about the rustiness thing. We see this every year. We always forget. The team that's been playing and is in the groove and, you know, can just go from one series, they always have an advantage in game one over the team that hasn't played. So I think the Spurs, I really think they actually have to win game one to win the series, as goofy as that sounds. And I think they are going to win game one.

1:22:23Bill Simmons:And so that one on FanDuel, Spurs to win game one in the series is plus 450. So I like that bet too. But I think the Spurs are going to win, Zach. I just think they've caught lightning in a bottle and this feels like 77 Blazers to me. I'm tired of thinking about the teams from the past and how you gotta learn and take your lumps and I just don't think it matters. They have a 7 '7 guy who's out of control and a bunch of pitbulls and they absolutely struck oil with this Dylan Harper thing. Like this is to get those three guys in back-to-back drafts, this is the kind of fluke you need to win a title when your best guys are 22, 21, and 20.

1:23:01Bill Simmons:I think they're going to win. I said it on Christmas. The Spurs can win the championship. And they absolutely can win the championship. Oh, and I forgot one more thing in my pick. Okay. The Jalen Williams thing is, I know he's going to be back and they feel good about it, but I think it's a weird variable to introduce into the biggest series of the year. And I don't think it's going to be seamless. And I do think OKC has too many guys. I don't know about all the roles with all those guys. And they can, I know they have great chemistry and all that stuff, but I don't even think they know who their best five to seven guys are.

1:23:38Bill Simmons:Whereas I think San Antonio knows. I think they know exactly who they are, what lineups work and don't work for them. And I just think they're going to win. These are all great reasons to pick the Spurs. You don't even need great reasons to pick the Spurs. They won 60 whatever games, 37 and three in their last 40 games when Wembe plays more than 15 minutes i mean it's an unimpeachable pick they can absolutely win the title i'm gonna pick the thunder in seven um did you respect it the jail and williams thing is not a worry to me other than is he going to get re-injured again um i think he probably could have come back earlier had they felt any kind of pressure at all from either the sons of the lakers and they got to sit him out for a long time um i do i still will like defer a little bit to the experience factor and having been through these moments of like big total stress although the spurs seem completely carefree to the point that wendy was like yeah i'll kick a game by elbowing naz reed in the head like i don't really care we'll lose this one we're gonna be fine i just want to elbow naz reed in the head because i'm fucking annoyed at everything yeah uh and i look they have a thunder got a lot of guys i they have a ton of continuity so i don't think reintroducing jdub is going to be that big of a deal and they're just going to have to make some decisions maybe it's a big versus small decision maybe it's like not an isaiah isaiah joe series maybe it's whatever they've already done it with aaron wiggins too and whatever 37 and 3 you can make there's a similar record sitting out there for oklahoma city and it's last like 40 games with shea or something like that um it's scary this is a what the spurs did to them in the regular season was legit i went back and watched all the film you can definitely see shea looking uncomfortable looking like this is my pet this is my pet jump shot this is a pet move I do every game and I don't have it anywhere but the guy on me is a pretty good defender and like I see that the giant arm there and I know he can jump really far and get to and like you would see him pull out of shots that he makes in his sleep but I think I look these are two awesome teams I think Oklahoma City has home court advantage they're more experienced and I do think they probably have a little bit of an extra gear that they've been waiting and saving and reserve for a series like this.

1:25:54So I'm going to defer to the champs and pick Thunder in seven. I totally respect it. And my second, as long as we're being full disclosure, my second backup pick would be Thunder in six. Like this is not a case where I'm picking Thunder in seven, but I kind of don't, it's wishy-washy and it's 50-50. I'm picking the Thunder to win the series. So I think I would go Thunder in seven, Thunder in six. Maybe Spurs in six is the third most likely outcome, but I'm going Thunder.

1:26:19Bill Simmons:We both agree long series. Six games is plus 210 on Fandle, and plus 220 is seven games. And that's another way to do it. You can just bet both. What's sweep? Plus 1 ,200 or something like that? Oh, my God. Spurs sweep is 25 to 1. Thunder sweep is plus 550. I just don't see it. Oh, that's a little lower than I would have expected. OKC in 5 is plus 290. OKC in 6 is plus 470. it's pretty strong actually um can i just give mitch can i just give mitch johnson a little love for this yeah i mentioned how like the teams have obviously all season gone back and forth with putting their their centers not on a webby and oklahoma city has done that quite a bit um and castle is now like the guy that they try to do this with and castle has just been like you think this works like this isn't going to work how about i just shoot 45 percent from three and when i'm not doing that how about i just barrel to the rim with all the space you're giving me and i'll score 32 points in an elimination game but he's been the guy that like clinging guarded castle and on and on um mid-season moving harrison barnes to the bench in favor of julian champagny i mean it's one of the most important mid-season adjustments a coach has made in a long time it completely changed the spurs because harrison barnes was the safest guy to put your center on and mitch johnson had to go to harrison barnes who was having a nice year and making a ton of corner threes but starting to slow down be like hey man and is a is a bigger better defender than julian champagny bigger for sure better in certain situations and say we're gonna we're gonna start this unproved like relatively unproven shooter over you because we just have to maximize Wemby and you're too safe of a hiding spot for these other centers.

1:28:12They can roam off you. They don't have to guard him. Our goal just has to be we're going to make it as hard as possible for you to finagle the matchups with where your center is on the floor. It's Julian Champagny. It's not some 10-year veteran with a track record. Harrison Barnes ate it and he took it and he remained productive and now he's barely playing because that's what happens in the playoffs. and it worked and it was like not a gutsy move but it was like a it was a big like seismic shift in how the spurs are are guarded i think it's a good one um minnesota quick this is another thing

1:28:49Bill Simmons:for my san antonio case i think minnesota was really good and i think san antonio just kind of broke them as the series went along specifically randall who just his brain broke during that series. So rough playoffs. Edwards wasn't 100%. They used some stuff against Minnesota. You know, obviously they were relying on Conley a little too much. Gobert was eradicated in that series, but I actually thought it was a more impressive six game win because they really should have just swept them. You know, when he gets kicked out of the one game, I don't know that that game one, looking back, like they, if Champagny just hits the three, maybe they win that.

1:29:31Bill Simmons:But I really like that Minnesota team, which brings me to a what do you do with them?

1:29:40Bill Simmons:Minnesota, Randall has 36 this year, or this upcoming year, and 33 the next year. Go Bears 36 and 38. They also have to figure out Io. And DiFincenzo is 12.5 expiring next year. I don't think Edwards or McDaniels goes anywhere. Do you buy anything that this team got a little screwed up holistically when everybody was getting shot for three minutes there when they thought they had a chance to get Giannis? Not really, because you didn't hear a lot of that when they were kicking the shit out of the Nuggets in the first round. It wasn't a problem then against a team with one of the two or three best players, minimum two best players in the world.

1:30:19When you lose, then it becomes a problem all of a sudden. But against that team, it wasn't a problem. What's a problem is Julius Randle's been in the playoffs four times in his career and three of them have been complete disasters and one of them last year was we thought okay got over the playoff hump after just i think he came into last year shooting like 30 for his career in the playoffs and had a great playoffs and he reverted right back to what he had been in the first two runs of the playoffs that was that i is that because of the trade stuff i don't really i don't really buy that i think what really submarine them was anthony edwards was at 100%, Io was at 100%, DiVincenzo tore his Achilles, and they stopped playing Bones Highland.

1:30:59They just kind of ran out of guys. And then Gobert had four points combined in the last two games of the series. I think it's a good showing for them with all that injury stuff to take two off the Spurs, I think is a perfectly fine showing. Doesn't feel good. So they can put together

1:31:15Bill Simmons:Rando and DiVincenzo's expiring. He's not going to play next year. If he plays, he won't be back until April. And you could take back somebody else's big money problem if you want. Okay. Like you could be like, all right, we'll take Zach Levine's last year. Why is that? Why? What is that doing for me? I'm just, I'm just pointing out they could put those contracts together. If they wanted to change something, they could think about something like that. Somebody's big expiring, um, which would give them more trade flexibility in December, January, February, maybe than what they have. I don't know what you do about Gobert after that Spurs series.

1:32:01Bill Simmons:And who knows? It might be a get over the hump thing like we talked about earlier where they had their run and this is kind of where they are. And now they're clearly just going to be behind San Antonio and OKC for the rest of the decade. And that's where we are. You know what though? Again, this is a franchise that from the last couple years of Garnett to the one Jimmy Butler year just sucked. sucked continuously and sucked in every possible fashion. I mean, like a little flirting with like, we're all, we're 500 with Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. We're like a fun team to watch, Nicole LePekovic.

1:32:32But like, they just weren't good. They did nothing in the playoffs. They had the one Butler year they lose in the first round.

1:32:37Bill Simmons:Bad injury luck with Rubio, bad injury luck without Jefferson. And just like everything goes wrong. And then the Butler thing goes haywire. And then you're back, not quite to square one, but back to like, we got to figure out what the hell we're doing with this team. And now you've been in two straight conference finals and a conference semifinal where you win two games off Victor Weminiama. This is just indisputably an awesome three years for the Minnesota. All of their fans are elated by everything that's happened. With all that said, you can't bring Randle back. Well, what are you going to do?

1:33:05Bill Simmons:You have to figure out how to trade him for somebody else. Well, this was always the mystery of like, they're in Anyanis. They're in Anyanis. They're one of the teams that's like in last 72 hours still in contact with Milwaukee. And I never got how that was going to happen because they don't have any They have very minimal to no first round picks to trade. I never believed it. I never understood how they were getting them. But I believe. But McDaniels would have had to have been in the trade for them to have any sort of assets to then give up for Giannis, I think. Well, yeah. I don't know. Again, I don't know how.

1:33:40But yes, if there's a person on their team who's getting you multiple good first round picks, that's who it is. And, you know, I just don't know how they're going to do it. But if they were trying then, they'll surely try again.

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1:35:10Bill Simmons:God, I hate bringing this up. can we talk about Giannis's trade value for a second? I mean, this is your favorite, one of your favorite topics. So go ahead. Well, we're going to be talking about it for the next four to five weeks. He was in the news this week. Cause Miles Turner gave that interview talking about that was, that was pretty, I have no problem saying this because he's not going to be on my team like next year. So here's some tea. I'm going to spill. Or it's just like, Hey man, And they paid me$25 million a year where I didn't have a lot, a lot of other options. I'm just happy as a clam.

1:35:46This is all great for me.

1:35:47Bill Simmons:I know he's stunk this year though. Um, I can't really find the team for Giannis. I thought this was going to be a lot easier last year. If we were doing this a year ago, I think we had multiple suitors and, uh, just, just kind of talking to people and hearing from different people about this. I'm really surprised how lukewarm the market is for him. I don't think people feel like this is a home run. This will change my franchise. I will now have a chance to win the title. It was telling that San Antonio and OKC wanted no part of them when they had the most assets. It seems to me that the team that would trade for Giannis would be a team that needs to take a little bit of a Hail Mary or as a really short window.

1:36:32Bill Simmons:And that rules out a lot of teams. I you know my dad and I have kind of landed the we hope it's not the Celtics that's where I've landed after looking at this from every direction I don't Simmons colon awful announcing tomorrow Simmons oh Jesus I don't want Giannis in Boston get that guy fucking out of here um I don't know I went through all the stuff what two months ago about the year 14 and after big guys and how how kind of creepy the stats were and how few guys even were able to put up 2010s and um the injury history hit in the last five years and it just doesn't something's just telling me to stay away and i know some teams will talk themselves into it but i just don't know what he's worth i don't i can't figure it out so what have your as you talk to people in the league what are you hearing so i mentioned this last week when i got back from the combine that um it like the thing comes out from shams that the bucks are quote open for business which we already knew that they're going to be open for business jimmy haslam came out and said we're going to be open for business again we want to do it before the draft if we're not going to sign him or if he's not going to sign whatever um and it just like there's a it's a it's an interesting paradox because there's a general i mean everyone was in chicago i saw a million people yeah there's a there's a general assumption that he will get traded because that's just what happens right like when the toothpaste is this far out of the tube yeah and yet no one can really identify the team that that fits the right the right package of like we have stuff a lot of stuff that's going to entice milwaukee and we're going to be good enough to justify it sending out all that stuff when janice is here and i i said this i had uh i met up with a a very high powered agent who knows things and we were just shooting the shit and i said so what's your what's your bet on Giannis.

1:38:23And he said, you know, I'm, I'm just, I'm going no trade. I'm, I'm in the contrarian zone. I think I'm going no trade. I think he's going to be on the box. And I was like, really? Why? He's like, I just don't know what the team is. Who's the team go through all the teams, find the team. And it was like, I heard you say this. It was like a fairly convincing argument that I still, but didn't sway me. Like, I think he's going to get traded still. And that's why I said after all that, if I just had to bet, if you made me like pick a team that is it, if I just had to guess if he's traded, whereas he traded, I would put Miami as my number one guest team because they fit the Hail Mary thing you just said because they have just enough stuff that if they threw it all together, the Bucks could sell it as like, hey, we got a lot and maybe we can reflip this one guy we got and like get another thing.

1:39:09But I don't feel great about that package, whatever it is, if I'm Milwaukee.

1:39:15Bill Simmons:Portland would be the other team and I don't even know if he'd want to go there. The other stuff - At least he's not a two-way player so he can travel to all the games. Right. I think he's fixing that, though, Dundon. He went on game over with Rich and Max and said he thought it was more like hockey. I saw that. I saw it. I didn't realize all the players went to the games. Yeah. Well, he learned. He learned a valuable lesson. Some of the stuff we keep hearing, everybody seems terrified about the injury history and the miles on the body, right? using almost like a running back in football or a car that has a ton of miles on it that's gone cross country.

1:39:52Bill Simmons:Just wondering, if I get Giannis, how many years left am I actually getting? There's also the stylistic thing. If you already have a best player on your team, how is that person going to fit with Giannis, a guy who likes to have the ball, who likes to be at the top of the key? How does that fit with somebody like Jason Tatum? Right? And then, you know, I think everybody loves Giannis the guy. I think everybody thinks he's a great guy. But there's some stuff that comes with Giannis, right? He's got multiple agents. He's got the two brothers. He's been the superstar in his own team now for 11, 12 years.

1:40:34Bill Simmons:Probably used, accustomed to certain treatments. And it's risky to bring somebody in like that. We've seen it not work in the NBA where it's like, I'm a big star. I'm walking in. This is now my new team. And sometimes it doesn't work right. Even when Dame came to Milwaukee, it was rocky there for a year. It was a similar situation. So I think we're both looking at the same team and the same kind of Hail Mary situation. Would you say you still expect him to be traded though? I do. I do too. because um here's what i think has changed i think it's become acrimonious with him and the gm i think him not playing at the end of last year i i don't think it's on good terms well look understanding i mean the miles turner stuff got kind of a chuckle from people but that was real shit man he was basically saying the dude was never on time ever without saying who it was, but we knew who he was talking about.

1:41:36I mean, I didn't realize. Did he not say who it was? Did he just say it's the best player or whatever?

1:41:42Bill Simmons:Yeah, there was some dancing around, but you could tell who he was talking about. And he certainly wasn't kind to Doc either. That kind of stuff annoys whoever it is, annoys players. I've heard stories about we had to hold the plane because this guy was late and everyone's grumbling because they have dinner plans when they get to the city. The guy was late for his massage table appointment and it had created this whole backup that ruined everybody's days. And when the guy, if he's talking about Giannis, if you're the best guy on the team and you're the franchise guy, you can't do, that stuff is not acceptable for someone.

1:42:14You have to be the other way. You have to be the guy who sets the standard for the rest of the team. There's one other team that I think we have to mention

1:42:24Bill Simmons:and it ties into another theme that I've been wondering about. If there's going to be punishment against the Clippers, should they be moving fast right now and trying to trade their picks in case they're worried that they might get taken away and if you're going to do that like do you just could you just trade the number five pick for Giannis right now and just we're trying to win a title with Kawhi and Giannis and Garland and yeah I think they would have the cap space to do it they could put a couple expirings there to make it to make it work and basically try to jump start if they feel like a punishment's coming because I think that the feeling is we're going to have a verdict pretty soon.

1:43:03That would shock me if only because, I mean, I was there when it happened and I saw other people like they just feel like they got a new lease on life with this pick. I mean, just a new that it completely changed everything about their franchise and it would just absolutely blow me away.

1:43:22Bill Simmons:So who are the other Hail Mary teams then? I guess you could say if Cleveland gets annihilated by the Knicks, maybe they're in that zone. That's what I was going to say. Would you trade Mobley for Giannis straight up at this point with the injury history? Because I don't think I would. I don't think that's a smart move. I don't know if I would do it, honestly, but if a couple of years of Mitchell plus Giannis is interesting enough. Yeah, you're short in your two-year. Yeah, that's like a classic two-year window. Yeah. I'd be very nervous to do that. So yeah, how the playoffs play out is a big part of it, right?

1:43:57We haven't mentioned Houston. And then you have the other kind of older Hail Mary teams who may not have enough to get it done, like the Lakers and the Warriors and teams like that, right? But who else?

1:44:08Bill Simmons:That's it. That's it. Rockets, I mean, would you trade Shangoon and another contract for Giannis and throw some picks in? I don't know if I would do that. The only other one I can think of is Brooklyn. I do not, as we said before, I don't think they're keeping their six picks. and is it like a two-part move where move one is Giannis, move two is something else and you go in on two stars and now you're in the mix in the East. Well, that's the thing with Brooklyn is like they've been floating around the rumor mill like this with Giannis for a long time and the question has always been like, who is Giannis going there to play with?

1:44:40And given his age and his injury history, you don't get a year to be like, we'll find another guy. Like that year, you have to have your team ready to compete at the highest possible level. The sixth pick is super interesting. I haven't heard a lot of buzz about the Nets in the sixth pick yet, but they're just in the range where everybody's a guard, and they just drafted a million guards. And not all of them are – like your guy Burry is not a point guard, so maybe he would fit there. But it is an interesting place for them to land in the draft.

1:45:07Bill Simmons:Acuff or Wago has to be six. They just have the most value, and they don't need either of those guys. I also think all the intel I've gotten is that they don't want to have another rebuilding year. They want to be good. They're tired of this. And the Nets are in a weird spot. the Psy family, who I think everybody thinks are great owners and it's like a first class team, they have this awesome WNBA team situation where they sell out. People love it. There's real energy in the arena. And then they have this Nets team that's just punted and they're playing in the same city as a team that's about to make the finals, barring something crazy happening.

1:45:40Bill Simmons:So I don't see how they don't try to. I had someone make the best possible pitch to me about the Nets at the sixth pick. And he was just, I don't even remember who it was. It was a front office guy on on their team he was just he didn't know anything concrete he was just saying this is what they should do he was like i don't even care who they took in the last draft they should take a cuff because he would just be like the ultimate draw like the hipsters would be like this kind of is a cool undersized guy who does cool stuff like he would just fit what they just give them a buzz give them some hipster like street cred like he would be he was just like fuck all the guys they just picked maybe they'll develop maybe they won't they should take a cuff no matter what if he's still there i agree with that because because he has real kairi potential and you have to investigate it but yeah so if we're talking you know the draft still five weeks away but i do feel like we're in range now it's may 17th the draft is in five weeks and i think some trade stuff is is starting you know for sure the celtics are certainly looking at it i think the celtics whatever i've talked about this already but whatever they decided to do with jalen i think would be i don't think it's a janice move i think it's more of a can we get two pieces for jaylen some salary cap relief and maybe somebody that makes less money than him two years from now type of thing but i would say they're way more likely to keep them than trade him you know i would i i do think it's more likely that he's on the team next year than not um i yeah i don't i don't know anything more than that so we'll see it's a weird situation all right well it's past midnight your time and you have to get up early tomorrow so we have to go anything else we cover everything i think we covered everything best thing you heard in chicago that you didn't talk about on your podcast oh god i talked about a lot of it on my podcast um seemed like a lot of people were there it was crowded it was it was uh everyone's always there it's one of the greats like vegas but in a shorter period of time uh and in a normal city uh and not vegas which i i do like vegas a lot actually but um i i'll have to think about that I have nothing.

1:47:43All right.

1:47:44Bill Simmons:So we have, we have Knicks and we have Spurs. We, I have the Spurs. You have OKC. And we both have Knicks. Yeah. Okay. Um, thanks to Gahal and Eduardo. Thanks to Zach Lowe as well. Don't forget new rewatchables for me tomorrow. Borat. Very nice. Really fun one. Um, and then I'll be back on Tuesday night. Zach's going to have a new podcast on Tuesday morning after game one. Spurs thunder, which should be an all-timer. Zach, great to see you as always. It's going to be a blast. Thanks for having me.

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